The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Really? Neutral between a US regime that is openly hostile to the human race, and one that will put pressure on the UK to stick to its international commitments by not signing a (so far entirely imaginary) FTA? Jesus.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Apart from the curtain-twitchers on PB I can't think of anyone who is comfortable with the shop your neighbour strategy.
I think Johnson is trying to get the message across that it is not a "shop your neighbour strategy". Jeez - what a country we are becoming.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
You sure? Her Grenfell performance didn't make her look a natural at disaster management, whereas Gordon's honeymoon as pm was predicated on the fact that he gave good flood.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
Recall her response to AIDS - and contrast it with another supposedly enlightened European country, France (let alone Reagan's America). There are probably tens of thousands of people alive in the UK who would have died had they lived in France - which didn't start a major health campaign until 4 years after "Don't Die of Ignorance" dominated UK TV screens and sent a leaflet through every letterbox.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Apart from the curtain-twitchers on PB I can't think of anyone who is comfortable with the shop your neighbour strategy.
Absolutely. But it may surprise that there are a large number of people who genuinely try to obey the law (even if they disagree with it) and are reluctantly, basically seeking to comply with the new rule of six regulations. But then Johnson goes in front of the select committee and announces (albeit via a different question - relating to neighbours) that he's not really that concerned about minor infractions, as long as it isn't an "animal house party". Which means that people will hear that and take on board that they can push the boat on the "spirit" of the regulations, if not the letter.
When frankly, the rules as they existed before were sufficient for dealing with large raucous house parties.
I agree. You don't get to beat me when it comes to thinking that Johnson is a twat. He is, of the first order.
And he didn't need to say what he said because as you rightly point out, we know that's how it operates, you just don't need a loudmouth gobshite to spell it out.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
Interesting, and MaxPB says the same.
If this is the real reason, I think we should probably start enforcing mask-wearing in shops much more rigorously as MaxPB describes in Italy, at least for a start.
If I was Dominic Cummings, I would also seriously be thinking about travel restrictions from Spain. Spain seemed to be an absolutely key source of transmission for us last time, and if I've got it right now it seems to be the worst ongoing situation in Europe - worrying.
There is certainly a lot of Irish heritage in the USA and, I suspect, understandable sympathy for the fact they too had to resort to armed rebellion to gain independence from the British.
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
If you watch any Trump Ad or even tweet you will see that sentimentality is far more important than rational argument.
If Ireland or anyone is able to say the British are hurting Ireland because of Brexit, no trade deal is going to be acceptable to Congress.
The only upside of this is that a trade deal with the US would be a stupid idea in the first place (the concessions would be too great).
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
You sure? Her Grenfell performance didn't make her look a natural at disaster management, whereas Gordon's honeymoon as pm was predicated on the fact that he gave good flood.
I'd forgotten about Grenfell. Maybe a lesson learned... or maybe not.
P.S. The allusion you have created re: Gordon is one that will haunt me all day.
It's also frankly a ridiculous statement as a whole, which fundamentally undermines the new policy wholesale. Leaving aside the "neighbour snitching" angle, if all the Government is concerned about is "Animal House" parties, then it basically gives the green light to "specific and limited law breaking" - eg. gatherings of 7 or 8 people taking a few basic precautions.
Exactly.
And yet another batch of government policies get added to the pile of silly rules that people know aren’t being enforced.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
Recall her response to AIDS - and contrast it with another supposedly enlightened European country, France (let alone Reagan's America). There are probably tens of thousands of people alive in the UK who would have died had they lived in France - which didn't start a major health campaign until 4 years after "Don't Die of Ignorance" dominated UK TV screens and sent a leaflet through every letterbox.
I seem to recall Normal Fowler was spectacularly competent during that campaign. Nobody of that ilk that I can think of it in the current Cabinet.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
No problem with travel insurance proviiding that you booked when that particular destination was on the "safe list" and remained on that list at the date of travel.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
The problem with May is that she would have been undermined by Boris carping from the sidelines, complaining about liberties and using the pandemic to bolster his reputation with right.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
When was the government encouraging travel? Sure, it was allowed, but actively encouraging it?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
I think this is a false dichotomy. Especially given the way that many schools seem to be acting is in a way that is massively disruptive for schooling anyway. Look at that schools the other day that sent 300 children home for two weeks because of one positive test! They might as well have never reopened. Absolutely unsustainable approach (and also completely illogical, when you consider that for that one child showing symptoms resulting in a positive test, there could and almost certainly would have been a number of asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic children, capable of transmitting the virus, but not getting tested at all.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
Interesting, and MaxPB says the same.
If this is the real reason, I think we should probably start enforcing mask-wearing in shops much more rigorously, at least for a start.
If I was Dominic Cummings, I would also seriously be thinking about travel restrictions from Spain. Spain seemed to be an absolutely key source of transmission for us last time, and if I've got it right now it seems to be the worst ongoing situation in Europe - worrying.
In Italy it seems to be self enforcing. The Italians hate, and take a delight in finding ways around, official rules, but once something becomes a social norm, no Italian wants to display brutta figura. Just think of the stares if you order a cappuccino after your meal, multiplied up.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
The costas now have much lower infection rates than inland, where I live you wouldn’t know there was a problem apart from the restrictions. The majority of the problem is in the larger cities but Catalonia and Barcelona seem to have peaked. Why Madrid? High density housing, return to work from holiday with extended family, reluctance of certain segments of society to conform. Testing levels are quite high showing high infection levels (25%) so much more difficult to contain. I’ve not looked at today’s latest Spanish news yet, if anything stands out I’ll post later.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
The problem with May is that she would have been undermined by Boris carping from the sidelines, complaining about liberties and using the pandemic to bolster his reputation with right.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
Unpalatable though the thought might be, I suspect Corbyn would have been ok. He would at least have listened to people. You're right about the Socialism thing though. We kind of have a socialist command economy right now. The Left would never have been allowed to get away with that.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
No problem with travel insurance proviiding that you booked when that particular destination was on the "safe list" and remained on that list at the date of travel.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Yes, but much of the world isn't on the "safe" list and as soon as the FCO advises against "all but essential travel" to that destination, outbound travel to there will not be covered by most insurance policies.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Really? Neutral between a US regime that is openly hostile to the human race, and one that will put pressure on the UK to stick to its international commitments by not signing a (so far entirely imaginary) FTA? Jesus.
The world is burning up.
And let's not forget that the USA is a legal guaranteur to the Good Friday agreement. It's not "meddling" if they get involved, it is their legal right. And they have a right to interpret the Good Friday agreement as they wish.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
No problem with travel insurance proviiding that you booked when that particular destination was on the "safe list" and remained on that list at the date of travel.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Yes, but much of the world isn't on the "safe" list and as soon as the FCO advises against "all but essential travel" to that destination, outbound travel to there will not be covered by most insurance policies.
Not really an issue in the EU, pre Jan 1st. EHIC covers everything you need.
If I were I would have revived the deputy pm role, got someone like Hague or Hunt tin post and made them exclusively responsible for pandemic planning. Then I would have split the peacetime rule of sec state for health, which is clearly too big for one person in a pandemic. Base the dep pm in the doh and have Individual cabinet ministers for testing, hospitals, and vaccine planning. I would have kicked Brexit into 2021. That is clearly something that can wait a bit.
My thoughts exactly, I’d add that I’d pinch the best industrial project managers from top manufacturing companies along with skilled contingency planners to help out.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
But it’s most likely way over 10k here - possibly as high as 38k per day. International comparisons can wait but suffice to say that the UK is underperforming viz Covid. This Government’s handling of the pandemic has been a shambles - you surely agree with that?
The government of the country won’t improve until it realises you have to fish in a bigger gene pool than Oxford arts graduates.
Don’t get me wrong. These guys are amongst the best in the world at talking and have weapons grade self confidence.
But occasionally you need people In government who can do not just talk. And people who occasionally recognise they are not infallible and can adapt are valuable too.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
But it’s most likely way over 10k here - possibly as high as 38k per day. International comparisons can wait but suffice to say that the UK is underperforming viz Covid. This Government’s handling of the pandemic has been a shambles - you surely agree with that?
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
If I was Dominic Cummings, I would also seriously be thinking about travel restrictions from Spain. Spain seemed to be an absolutely key source of transmission for us last time, and if I've got it right now it seems to be the worst ongoing situation in Europe - worrying.
Not his job. The FCDO says:
The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advise against all non-essential travel to Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands, based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks in the country.
If you're there already your insurance will still be valid, but if you've yet to fly, it won't.
A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
Just a wedding? The Rhonnda Cynon Taff lockdown origins are beyond parody. A coach load of pissed up rugby clubbers go for a jolly to Doncaster races, indulging in a pub crawl across England and Wales.
And people wonder why it’s spreading again, selfishness and stupidity.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
May probably wouldn't have been great; Major and Brown would be my nominations for surprising on the upside. But she would have had a couple of big advantages over Johnson.
First, she wouldn't have squirmed about Draconian measures in the way Johnson did and does. With exponential growth, every day of faff is hideously expensive. Second, whilst Nick'n'Fi were terrible advisers, they weren't wierdoes or misfits. When this government goes wrong, it's often by forgetting that the dots on the spreadsheet are actual people.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
But it’s most likely way over 10k here - possibly as high as 38k per day. International comparisons can wait but suffice to say that the UK is underperforming viz Covid. This Government’s handling of the pandemic has been a shambles - you surely agree with that?
The UK is worse at everything, thats why so many migrants want to live here.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
No problem with travel insurance proviiding that you booked when that particular destination was on the "safe list" and remained on that list at the date of travel.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Yes, but much of the world isn't on the "safe" list and as soon as the FCO advises against "all but essential travel" to that destination, outbound travel to there will not be covered by most insurance policies.
Why is Spain faring so much worse than countries like Italy ? The increase in cases and deaths in Spain looks ominous, and highly reminiscent of last time, and yet countries like Italy and Austria, near the epicentre of the disease last time, seem to be going on roughly as normal relative to the last few months.
What is going on, I wonder.
The Italians didn’t open up nightclubs etc.
The Italians have the ongoing psychological shock of that truly terrible outbreak in the north, which continues to concentrate minds.
The nature of the Italian tourist industry is different from the Spanish, with little of the deliberate debauchery of the Costas and Balearics.
Maybe there is something about the demographics of Madrid as compared to Rome, I don’t know.
If I was Dominic Cummings, I would also seriously be thinking about travel restrictions from Spain. Spain seemed to be an absolutely key source of transmission for us last time, and if I've got it right now it seems to be the worst ongoing situation in Europe - worrying.
Not his job. The FCDO says:
The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advise against all non-essential travel to Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands, based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks in the country.
If you're there already your insurance will still be valid, but if you've yet to fly, it won't.
Oh I'm sure it's not his job, but he seems be making the decisions. By travel restrictions I was also thinking of a travel ban, rather than just advice - if I remember correctly, we had multiple UK outbreaks traced most particularly of all to Spain here last time, and now it seems to be presenting some of the highest figures for serious cases in the whole of Europe.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
Firstly the basis of comparison is clearly other UK Governments. And secondly if the UK Government is screwing up, it's hardly a defence that other Government's are as well. How about aspiring to be in the category of governments that aren't? Of course there's an issue in this country about the UK population characteristics and it's fairly unique media, both of which make things harder.
But the Government can at least aspire to a measure of projecting competence, clear plans (whilst stating risks that could force a change of course and communicating that so it doesn't always come as a surprise), good consistent communication across government, and showing any signs of anticipating future problems in advance and preparing for them.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Tbh there's an easy way to filter testing, give everyone a temperature check on arrival and only test those who have a high temperature. Everyone else gets sent home to isolate.
What about people who will have to miss out on being paid whilst waiting for test? Its all very well and good saying that from a position of being salaried and getting full sick pay from day 1.
Make it the law that you can't stop people working unless they have a high temperature and at least one other major symptom or they have been contacted by the track and trace team. At the moment people are being sent home for sneezing which isn't a COVID symptom. The government's lack of communication and strategy is absolutely horrible.
The idea that anyone is being sent home for sneezing is utterly preposterous. It may be happening but it is preposterous madness.
The media and the government have made it abundantly clear what the three symptoms of COVID19 are for months. I've just driven my daughter to school and heard yet another NHS advert on the radio saying what they are. Sneezing not being a symptom has been known and communicated for months.
The thing that worries me about someone saying this is that as an employer one of the most fundamental and basic responsibilities for an employer is to do due diligence about health and safety at work. I've been an employer and that is your number one responsibility to your employees. Anyone who can't be arsed to learn what the f###ing COVID19 symptoms actually are has clearly put zero effort into doing the slightest bit of due diligence.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.
The problem with May is that she would have been undermined by Boris carping from the sidelines, complaining about liberties and using the pandemic to bolster his reputation with right.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
May would have said and done nothing for weeks (or even months) and then popped up, announced her decision and then demanded everyone support it.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
Problem with Boris is that he’s currently not even good at the things he’s supposed to be good at. Communication is all over the place.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
Problem with Boris is that he’s currently not even good at the things he’s supposed to be good at. Communication is all over the place.
Communication is only all over the place for the things that are regularly changing in a fast moving environment. Boris moving fast at changing things as required is precisely a strength that May lacked.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
Is there any evidence that transmission has come from people going for meals in restaurants?
All the evidence I've seen is the polar opposite, that it is at home mingling that has caused it. Which was already starting to occur before pubs even reopened, people tired of the restrictions and wanted to mingle exactly as the SAGE scientists said would happen before lockdown even commenced.
Non story. Joe Biden is simply repeating what the players in the UK/EU negotiations have already agreed. A hard border in Ireland is a Not Happening Event and must remain so.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
Have you had any difficulty with travel insurance?
No problem with travel insurance proviiding that you booked when that particular destination was on the "safe list" and remained on that list at the date of travel.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Yes, but much of the world isn't on the "safe" list and as soon as the FCO advises against "all but essential travel" to that destination, outbound travel to there will not be covered by most insurance policies.
It's fairly simple, really. All travel tends to increase the number of people any individual interacts with, and is one of the key drivers of infection spread. Limiting travel is one of the means of reducing spread.
What's complicated is deciding how to limit travel, and what counts as necessary or unnecessary. But if you leave it up to the individual to decide, all travel tends to become necessary...
I assume that just means he'll have to do it after?
Yep - but why announce it now when the confession will be weeks later, it's almost like the announcement is timed to avoid it being too embarrassing.
In fact isn't it more embarrassing, since it'll now feature in the news twice? Once for this announcement, and again in a few weeks when he has to do it.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
The Taiwanese managed to pick one as their deputy President.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Why do we need a trade deal with the US?
We trade perfectly well (to our considerable advantage) without one. You think that would continue in the event of a deal on US terms?
As we are about to leave a free market with our largest market, most likely with tariffs with the EU from January, so logically we will therefore need a trade deal with our second largest market and to reduce tariffs on some of our key exporters to the US, if that means a bit more access for US imports to the UK so be it
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
Transmission has been primarily in homes, not venues.
There is certainly a lot of Irish heritage in the USA and, I suspect, understandable sympathy for the fact they too had to resort to armed rebellion to gain independence from the British.
But, I think attitudes to Irish republicanism and the Troubles became much more realistic in the last 30-40 years as the USA started to have its own serious experiences with terrorism and understood the difficult British position far more.
If you watch any Trump Ad or even tweet you will see that sentimentality is far more important than rational argument.
If Ireland or anyone is able to say the British are hurting Ireland because of Brexit, no trade deal is going to be acceptable to Congress.
The only upside of this is that a trade deal with the US would be a stupid idea in the first place (the concessions would be too great).
I'm inclined to agree (and doubt it will get past both Congress and Parliament) but let's see where negotiations do.
More services access to the USA would be a big prize and I wouldn't necessarily begrudge *some* (not all) cereal imports and manufactured goods being easier.
Fact. We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests. Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms? And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases? Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted. Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.
I would guess so too. I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating. We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily. Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway. One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
May would have done better. Cameron would have done better. Brown would have done better. Blair would have done better. Major would have done better. Thatcher would have done better. Callaghan would have done better Wilson would have done better. Heath would have done better.
That is just your political bias
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.
Most shambolic Government of my lifetime by a long, long, way.
What, that of Macron in France and Sánchez in Spain, where new cases are now topping 10,000 a day?
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
But it’s most likely way over 10k here - possibly as high as 38k per day. International comparisons can wait but suffice to say that the UK is underperforming viz Covid. This Government’s handling of the pandemic has been a shambles - you surely agree with that?
The UK is worse at everything, thats why so many migrants want to live here.
You may as well say: The UK is wonderful at everything, that's why so many UK-born people want to (and do) leave.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Why do we need a trade deal with the US?
We trade perfectly well (to our considerable advantage) without one. You think that would continue in the event of a deal on US terms?
As we are about to leave a free market with our largest market, most likely with tariffs with the EU from January, so logically we will therefore need a trade deal with our second largest market and to reduce tariffs on some of our key exporters to the US, if that means a bit more access for US imports to the UK so be it
Why - apart from the feel good factor, which particular sectors would benefit?
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
Transmission has been primarily in homes, not venues.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
Well quite. If Biden wins it hardly helps matters if he knows the UK's governing party was agitating for Trump. Boris has mucked things up with Anglo-US relations as it is. This sulky nonsense from the Tories is making our diplomats' lives even harder.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.
Transmission has been primarily in homes, not venues.
The Biden spreads are ticking up - which is good to see when you've gone a bit ape on the EC supremacy and wouldn't mind the chance to reduce your position slightly.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
A Biden regime would see a post-Brexit Johnson-led UK as unfinished business from the defeat of Trump, and treat us accordingly. He'd try and squeeze us out and bring us to heel.
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Why do we need a trade deal with the US?
We trade perfectly well (to our considerable advantage) without one. You think that would continue in the event of a deal on US terms?
As we are about to leave a free market with our largest market, most likely with tariffs with the EU from January, so logically we will therefore need a trade deal with our second largest market and to reduce tariffs on some of our key exporters to the US, if that means a bit more access for US imports to the UK so be it
We have a trade deficit with the market we have a deal with and a trade surplus with the one we don't.
Why are trade deals such a great idea?
We should focus on making the stuff the world wants and educating the workforce to create it - apart from that the govt should get the heck out of the way.
I see this morning we are a step closer to the social and economic collapse that will make us understand that there is no such thing as a new normal.
There is the old normal, and we have to go back to it.
If there are more deaths, so be it. We can take comfort in the fact there will be far fewer fatalities from the myriad of other diseases the government has outlawed, as well as the suicides.
So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine. BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
A Biden regime would see a post-Brexit Johnson-led UK as unfinished business from the defeat of Trump, and treat us accordingly. He'd try and squeeze us out and bring us to heel.
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
Even a child knows that global overheating threatens our interests far more than any of those things. Not voting to get rid of Trump is pretty much a crime against humanity, given what we know.
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
When was the government encouraging travel? Sure, it was allowed, but actively encouraging it?
Yep. Check the record. Travel employs people too, remember? Anyhow this mountain wont climb itself...
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Governments have been poor at explaining to people how to live with the virus. They have done lockdown and then unlockdown and sort of assumed that's the job done.
Living with the virus means making choices. The more activity you do the more times the virus will transmit. The more mitigations you take, the more difficult it is for the virus to transmit.
If we choose to wear masks, and it is a choice, we can do more activities safely without allowing the virus to go out of control. In that context masks are an enabler of freedom, not a constraint on it.
If we choose to open schools that reduces our options for doing other activities safely without allowing the virus to go out of control. It would be good to have a discussion about what's important to us, to enable the important and restrict the unimportant.
Even during lockdown we never got much below R=1. Which is fine. There is no reason to restrict ourselves unnecessarily. But it does mean there is little scope for additional activity before the epidemic balloons out of control. Which is not fine. We need to discuss our priorities.
@HYUFD “Remainers” don’t want Brexit to fail. I don’t want my entire 30s to be a misery of high unemployment and horrible prospects just to prove a point.
I want this Government to deliver the prosperity it promised. I don’t want it to fail. Whether or not I expect it to is another matter.
And FYI the Government shouldn’t be basing its trade and economic strategy on the hope that Trump gets reelected. That’s ridiculously stupid.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Sad to see you use the urban legend about the Churchill bust.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Why do we need a trade deal with the US?
We trade perfectly well (to our considerable advantage) without one. You think that would continue in the event of a deal on US terms?
As we are about to leave a free market with our largest market, most likely with tariffs with the EU from January, so logically we will therefore need a trade deal with our second largest market and to reduce tariffs on some of our key exporters to the US, if that means a bit more access for US imports to the UK so be it
We have a trade deficit with the market we have a deal with and a trade surplus with the one we don't.
Why are trade deals such a great idea?
We should focus on making the stuff the world wants and educating the workforce to create it - apart from that the govt should get the heck out of the way.
Yes indeedy! No deal with the abolition of tariffs should be the goal.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
Even Reagan wouldn't endorse Thatcher before a UK GE - when asked who he hoped would win he simply shrugged. After the result he remarked that now he could comment he was delighted with the result.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.
Even Reagan wouldn't endorse Thatcher before a UK GE - when asked who he hoped would win he simply shrugged. After the result he remarked that now he could comment he was delighted with the result.
Though Reagan and his Secretary of State effectively snubbed Kinnock
So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement. We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed. We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars. We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities. We had less travel. We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6. We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.
Madness. Just close society until a vaccine? You are familiar with the concept of NPV aren't you? What value would we destroy in those months of close to zero economic activity? What damage to students from 3-22 would this do?
Get a grip man.
I`m was sorry to see David write that. May be the first time I`ve been disappointed with one of his posts. No allowance for the damage drachonian measures do. And heartily fed up with the scapegoating of people who have the temerity to want to retain their freedom to travel, when travelling to a country with a lower infection rate than where the person is travelling from. As you say, Topping, a lot of "madness" in the equation, and it seems to be spreading faster than the virus is.
I have no regrets about being on my travels. I am having a marvellous time. My behaviour is just as safe as it would have been at home, as are the places I am visiting. I have taken every sensible precaution including getting tested so that I know I am not presenting any risk.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
When was the government encouraging travel? Sure, it was allowed, but actively encouraging it?
Yep. Check the record. Travel employs people too, remember? Anyhow this mountain wont climb itself...
I was curious to see some examples, perhaps an advertising campaign.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.
The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
A Biden regime would see a post-Brexit Johnson-led UK as unfinished business from the defeat of Trump, and treat us accordingly. He'd try and squeeze us out and bring us to heel.
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
Even a child knows that global overheating threatens our interests far more than any of those things. Not voting to get rid of Trump is pretty much a crime against humanity, given what we know.
You need to appeal to those who don't already agree with you, if that's what you really care about most.
I might suggest that's not the most effective way of going about it.
Comments
The world is burning up.
And, remember, at the time I arranged the trip - not so very long ago - the governments official line was to ENCOURAGE Brits to book and go on their foreign holidays.
And he didn't need to say what he said because as you rightly point out, we know that's how it operates, you just don't need a loudmouth gobshite to spell it out.
If this is the real reason, I think we should probably start enforcing mask-wearing in shops much more rigorously as MaxPB describes in Italy, at least for a start.
If I was Dominic Cummings, I would also seriously be thinking about travel restrictions from Spain. Spain seemed to be an absolutely key source of transmission for us last time, and if I've got it right now it seems to be the worst ongoing situation in Europe - worrying.
If Ireland or anyone is able to say the British are hurting Ireland because of Brexit, no trade deal is going to be acceptable to Congress.
The only upside of this is that a trade deal with the US would be a stupid idea in the first place (the concessions would be too great).
P.S. The allusion you have created re: Gordon is one that will haunt me all day.
And yet another batch of government policies get added to the pile of silly rules that people know aren’t being enforced.
Edit: also worth pointing out that it is not compulsory to have travel insurance. I`ve often travelled without it.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
Is Boris running those countries too, or maybe, just maybe, is this a novel pandemic that is fucking up countries left, right, and centre all across the globe, despite their best efforts?
I guess we'll never know...
Don’t get me wrong. These guys are amongst the best in the world at talking and have weapons grade self confidence.
But occasionally you need people In government who can do not just talk. And people who occasionally recognise they are not infallible and can adapt are valuable too.
The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advise against all non-essential travel to Spain, including the Balearic and Canary Islands, based on the current assessment of COVID-19 risks in the country.
If you're there already your insurance will still be valid, but if you've yet to fly, it won't.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/spain
https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-politics-navalny/navalny-team-says-he-was-poisoned-by-water-bottle-in-hotel-room-not-at-airport-idUSR4N2G801Y
First, she wouldn't have squirmed about Draconian measures in the way Johnson did and does. With exponential growth, every day of faff is hideously expensive.
Second, whilst Nick'n'Fi were terrible advisers, they weren't wierdoes or misfits. When this government goes wrong, it's often by forgetting that the dots on the spreadsheet are actual people.
But the Government can at least aspire to a measure of projecting competence, clear plans (whilst stating risks that could force a change of course and communicating that so it doesn't always come as a surprise), good consistent communication across government, and showing any signs of anticipating future problems in advance and preparing for them.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
Who knew? 🤷♂️
The media and the government have made it abundantly clear what the three symptoms of COVID19 are for months. I've just driven my daughter to school and heard yet another NHS advert on the radio saying what they are. Sneezing not being a symptom has been known and communicated for months.
The thing that worries me about someone saying this is that as an employer one of the most fundamental and basic responsibilities for an employer is to do due diligence about health and safety at work. I've been an employer and that is your number one responsibility to your employees. Anyone who can't be arsed to learn what the f###ing COVID19 symptoms actually are has clearly put zero effort into doing the slightest bit of due diligence.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1306506149617860615
https://twitter.com/davidmorrisml/status/1306509764998856706
She had zero people skills.
All the evidence I've seen is the polar opposite, that it is at home mingling that has caused it. Which was already starting to occur before pubs even reopened, people tired of the restrictions and wanted to mingle exactly as the SAGE scientists said would happen before lockdown even commenced.
We trade perfectly well (to our considerable advantage) without one. You think that would continue in the event of a deal on US terms?
All travel tends to increase the number of people any individual interacts with, and is one of the key drivers of infection spread.
Limiting travel is one of the means of reducing spread.
What's complicated is deciding how to limit travel, and what counts as necessary or unnecessary. But if you leave it up to the individual to decide, all travel tends to become necessary...
More services access to the USA would be a big prize and I wouldn't necessarily begrudge *some* (not all) cereal imports and manufactured goods being easier.
The UK is wonderful at everything, that's why so many UK-born people want to (and do) leave.
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1306464214878490624
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1306464489357926400
https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1306465208509095937
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Why are trade deals such a great idea?
We should focus on making the stuff the world wants and educating the workforce to create it - apart from that the govt should get the heck out of the way.
There is the old normal, and we have to go back to it.
If there are more deaths, so be it. We can take comfort in the fact there will be far fewer fatalities from the myriad of other diseases the government has outlawed, as well as the suicides.
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Living with the virus means making choices. The more activity you do the more times the virus will transmit. The more mitigations you take, the more difficult it is for the virus to transmit.
If we choose to wear masks, and it is a choice, we can do more activities safely without allowing the virus to go out of control. In that context masks are an enabler of freedom, not a constraint on it.
If we choose to open schools that reduces our options for doing other activities safely without allowing the virus to go out of control. It would be good to have a discussion about what's important to us, to enable the important and restrict the unimportant.
Even during lockdown we never got much below R=1. Which is fine. There is no reason to restrict ourselves unnecessarily. But it does mean there is little scope for additional activity before the epidemic balloons out of control. Which is not fine. We need to discuss our priorities.
I want this Government to deliver the prosperity it promised. I don’t want it to fail. Whether or not I expect it to is another matter.
And FYI the Government shouldn’t be basing its trade and economic strategy on the hope that Trump gets reelected. That’s ridiculously stupid.
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kinnocks-tense-encounter-with-the-worlds-most-powerful-man-zdc9b688z3m
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/aug/04/uk.freedomofinformation
They have as their birth-right the freedom from unrest that humans have tried to achieve
BY JOHN GRAY"
https://unherd.com/2020/09/cats-can-teach-us-how-to-live/
I might suggest that's not the most effective way of going about it.