So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I’ve been told many times by leavers that no deal is nothing to worry about, so what’s the problem?
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERS
And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative
As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump
There probably wasn't much chance of a comprehensive UK-US trade deal under any circumstances, under either of the two presidential contenders, Congress is hostile to such deals, even without the latest antics of Boris, and the US industrial and agricultural lobbies would be pushing for terms we couldn't conceivably accept (GM foods, 'chlorinated chicken', better access to the UK healthcare market, etc). Moreover there's not much we can gain on the other side of the ledger: the big prize would be better access for selling financial services in the US, but there's no chance of that. Quite apart from anything else, individual US states have a lot of the say.
In other words, the line which Vote Leave were pushing about wonderful opportunities for doing great trade deals to replace or even outweigh the damage to our EU market access was always utter fantasy.
But whatever the chance was before the latest antics of the government, it is zero now. The trust is already lost.
What we should be worrying about more is first of all what damage Boris has done to our relations with the EU, and secondly to our general reputation with the US and other countries, It's a really spectacular, completely unnecessary, own-goal.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERS
And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative
As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump
I am not a Trump supporter as such but on this specific issue he is pro Brexit and pro UK FTA, Biden and Pelosi most certainly are not
As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in November
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
I want my country to be free.
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
But we only know t he test system has failed because we e are paying attention to the issue - yes testing is on the news but the true r e ality and why it can't be fixed hasn't reached the general public yet.
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
I want my country to be free.
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honest
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
I want my country to be free.
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honest
Any major trading partner is going to have a say in any number of issues affecting sovereignty. All there is to see here is a fantasy dying ; that's all.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.
As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in November
which reflects their increasing delusion and insanity. To hope for a Trump victory is almost disqualifying.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:
CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
I have just seen the dialogue between Johnson and Benn. A simply unbelievable response from Johnson regarding the rebuttal of his claim made moments earlier regarding EU bad faith in the negotiations.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
I would say the circumstances under which the USA has a trade deal with another country is of legitimate interest to a US president. They certainly think so.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
As a Hillary supporting Remainer, I take it you failed to get their pledge.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
Not much chance of a USA deal perhaps under Biden, but the UK shouldn't want one under Trump.
Boris just wants a photo with Trump and the right to say - look I told you we could get a deal. And we already know, Boris won't won't read it or have it sanity checked before signing because - experts.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
That only gets you to 12800 or do not 38000 (which would take 10 days more).
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
However, 38 000 is very high. The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
Re:Good Friday Agreement, methinks that US support and concern has VERY little to do with the goal of a United Ireland.
Why? Because VERY few Americans - including Irish Americans - give a dying fiddler's final farewell feck about a United Ireland.
On the other hand, most Americans a) support the rule of law; and b) oppose resumption of The Troubles.
With reference to the later, note that from US view, undermining Good Friday Agreement is a threat NOT just to the Nationalist community, but equally to the Loyalists. IF the goal is peace with (at least a modicum) of justice.
THAT is core problem with BoJo's gambit on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). And one NOT limited to Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Irish Americans or Democrats.
Addendum - when the Prime Minister memorably stunk up the House of Commons the last time he faced the Leader of the Opposition, it was notable that, unlike Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson did NOT pay tribute to John Hume, a man who worked hard and risked much for the cause of peace. Even when prompted by other speakers who did.
IF he really gives a damn about preserving peace, he certainly manages to keep it to himself.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
However, 38 000 is very high. The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for that greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
My wife and I report daily as one of c4m users of the Covid-19 ZOE app. The latest figures estimated from the reporting base is 5300 daily new cases and 61,900 active cases in the UK as of today.
So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
However, 38 000 is very high. The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?
Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
There's a lot of discussion about cases, but not hospitalisations. I'd really like to see clear evidence of hospitalisations rising outside some parts of the north, wherever and if that's available.
Although the same comment could be used for testing, schools (who are now sending whole forms and years home to self isolate for 2 wee,'s as tests can't be sorted)...
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
However, 38 000 is very high. The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
That’s true of most cases, full stop. Seven in ten are asymptomatic so most people who contract CV-19 will be none the wiser unless they get tested.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
There are some bewildering differences amongst today batch of US polls. They don't seem to have impacted Betfair at all but Sporting Index have edged their spreads more in the direction of the betting exchange so hedges and arbs between the two will be harder to find.
The spread punters have presumably started to take the view that the Rasmussen polls are the most likely to be wrong. There are therefore some rich pickings to be had if the reverse applies and you have the cojones to go with the firm that got 2016 right (but others seriously wrong).
I don't and am sticking with Nate Silver's assessment which also edged a bit further in Biden's favor today - a 76% probability now (or a shade shorter than 3/1 on in bookie terms.)
Edit: Oh, and congrats to the Aussies on pulling off a remarkable win. We've been treated to some great cricket this summer despite the Pandemic. Not quite over yet either. We can still look forward to Essex thrashing Somerset in the final of the Bob Willis trophy.
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
There's no way the GOP will win the House back
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
The article you cite is very interesting, and makes some very valid points. BUT you own argument AND "balance" much LESS persuasive.
You may be surprised that VERY few Americans have been worrying overmuch about the impact of Brexit on the Irish border. Why? Because we stupidly assumed that:
> whatever the Brexit outcome, both Brits & EU would come to a agreement on this out of mutual interest;
> which indeed they did - until BoJo decided to tear it up.
Never occurred to us that the nation that went to war over "a scrape of paper" in 1914 would repeat the Kaiser's perfidy in 2020.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.
Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from? Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
So what is the absence?
The absence of available testing for non-control surveillance group. Thought that would have been obvious. Or maybe you are still in the "world beating" laager?
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
However, 38 000 is very high. The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?
I don't know but it doesn't strike me as implausible.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.
I thought that was supposed to have already got fully underway as an end-to-end process between September 1-14, though, leading to a noticeable increase in hospitalisations already by now. Either I've got the prediction wrong, or there's governmental confusion.
"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
...and to the pub.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
We dropped eek twin b off last Wednesday. On Thursday there was a party in the flats attended by someone who had had a test of Thursday daytime. Last Friday we were told the test was positive so literally everyone in the block could be infected due to said person going to that party. Eek twin b thankfully wasn't at the party she had gone to the cinema (les miserables) and there was only 3 people in the screen so nothing to worry about there)
"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn't
Comments
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
Worked well the last time.
And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative
As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1306267243978862594?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1306334039557586944?s=20
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1304113778515161089?s=20
In other words, the line which Vote Leave were pushing about wonderful opportunities for doing great trade deals to replace or even outweigh the damage to our EU market access was always utter fantasy.
But whatever the chance was before the latest antics of the government, it is zero now. The trust is already lost.
What we should be worrying about more is first of all what damage Boris has done to our relations with the EU, and secondly to our general reputation with the US and other countries, It's a really spectacular, completely unnecessary, own-goal.
Thanks, Boris and Dom.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
I want my country to be free.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1306351745543614470
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
https://youtu.be/w_JwOm6sISw
- CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
- Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
- My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
- My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
Info here (with a somewhat positive spin):http://ifreetrade.org/pdfs/UK-CPTPP.pdf
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640
As a Hillary supporting Remainer, I take it you failed to get their pledge.
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone
Why? Because VERY few Americans - including Irish Americans - give a dying fiddler's final farewell feck about a United Ireland.
On the other hand, most Americans a) support the rule of law; and b) oppose resumption of The Troubles.
With reference to the later, note that from US view, undermining Good Friday Agreement is a threat NOT just to the Nationalist community, but equally to the Loyalists. IF the goal is peace with (at least a modicum) of justice.
THAT is core problem with BoJo's gambit on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). And one NOT limited to Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Irish Americans or Democrats.
Addendum - when the Prime Minister memorably stunk up the House of Commons the last time he faced the Leader of the Opposition, it was notable that, unlike Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson did NOT pay tribute to John Hume, a man who worked hard and risked much for the cause of peace. Even when prompted by other speakers who did.
IF he really gives a damn about preserving peace, he certainly manages to keep it to himself.
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
Although the same comment could be used for testing, schools (who are now sending whole forms and years home to self isolate for 2 wee,'s as tests can't be sorted)...
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
https://twitter.com/jibbajabb/status/1303703528792358913?s=21
The spread punters have presumably started to take the view that the Rasmussen polls are the most likely to be wrong. There are therefore some rich pickings to be had if the reverse applies and you have the cojones to go with the firm that got 2016 right (but others seriously wrong).
I don't and am sticking with Nate Silver's assessment which also edged a bit further in Biden's favor today - a 76% probability now (or a shade shorter than 3/1 on in bookie terms.)
Edit: Oh, and congrats to the Aussies on pulling off a remarkable win. We've been treated to some great cricket this summer despite the Pandemic. Not quite over yet either. We can still look forward to Essex thrashing Somerset in the final of the Bob Willis trophy.
Toodle pip, and nite nite all.
In the interests of balance.https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
The article you cite is very interesting, and makes some very valid points. BUT you own argument AND "balance" much LESS persuasive.
You may be surprised that VERY few Americans have been worrying overmuch about the impact of Brexit on the Irish border. Why? Because we stupidly assumed that:
> whatever the Brexit outcome, both Brits & EU would come to a agreement on this out of mutual interest;
> which indeed they did - until BoJo decided to tear it up.
Never occurred to us that the nation that went to war over "a scrape of paper" in 1914 would repeat the Kaiser's perfidy in 2020.
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
Thought that would have been obvious.
Or maybe you are still in the "world beating" laager?
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1306267243978862594?s=20
I was worried there for a moment.