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SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 16 in General
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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 12,246
    edited September 16
    Not been here all day, but timed it perfectly!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,319
    It's almost as if the Dems have a proprietorial interest in NI.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 16
    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,727
    3rd. Rate. Like the test and track.
  • geoffw said:

    It's almost as if the Dems have a proprietorial interest in NI.

    Given the role of Congress in the Good Friday Agreement you could argue that they have
  • I couldn't give a wet shit which drooling dementia-ridden Boomer wins the Presidency, to be honest.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,307
    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I’ve been told many times by leavers that no deal is nothing to worry about, so what’s the problem?
  • HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERS

    And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative

    As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    Andy_JS said:

    Joe Biden should keep out of UK politics.

    The Good Friday Agreement is international politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERS

    And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative

    As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump
    I am not a Trump supporter as such but on this specific issue he is pro Brexit and pro UK FTA, Biden and Pelosi most certainly are not
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 1,209
    As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,307

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,307

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    MrEd said:

    As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.

    Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in November
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,706
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    We are free. Now stop whining.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    Let's dissolve the UK then so it can be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:

  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462

    We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:

    But we only know t he test system has failed because we e are paying attention to the issue - yes testing is on the news but the true r e ality and why it can't be fixed hasn't reached the general public yet.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
    I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honest
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.
    I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honest
    Any major trading partner is going to have a say in any number of issues affecting sovereignty. All there is to see here is a fantasy dying ; that's all.
  • Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    edited September 16
    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Back of the queue.

    Worked well the last time.

    You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?
    You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?
    You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.
    And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.

    I want my country to be free.
    PB Trumpers like Karen from Will and Grace

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.

    Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in November
    which reflects their increasing delusion and insanity. To hope for a Trump victory is almost disqualifying.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,804
    edited September 16

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
    There is always one
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Thread interruption..,


    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.

    You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:
    • CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
    • Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
    • My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
    • My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
    Info here (with a somewhat positive spin):
    http://ifreetrade.org/pdfs/UK-CPTPP.pdf


  • Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday seems like it might not have been the best idea....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:

    I have just seen the dialogue between Johnson and Benn. A simply unbelievable response from Johnson regarding the rebuttal of his claim made moments earlier regarding EU bad faith in the negotiations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    edited September 16
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
    Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
  • Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Not much chance of a USA deal perhaps under Biden, but the UK shouldn't want one under Trump.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Andy_JS said:

    Joe Biden should keep out of UK politics.

    I would say the circumstances under which the USA has a trade deal with another country is of legitimate interest to a US president. They certainly think so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,004
    Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638
    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
    Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
    There's no way the GOP will win the House back
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
    You canvassed your own house? ;-)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other

    As a Hillary supporting Remainer, I take it you failed to get their pledge.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462
    FF43 said:

    Not much chance of a USA deal perhaps under Biden, but the UK shouldn't want one under Trump.

    Boris just wants a photo with Trump and the right to say - look I told you we could get a deal. And we already know, Boris won't won't read it or have it sanity checked before signing because - experts.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,804
    edited September 16
    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,004

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?

    Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    RobD said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.
    Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?
    Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
    Did you canvas your own house by mistake?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
    Did you canvas your own house by mistake?
    Snap!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.
    Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?
    Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
    So what is the absence?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?

    Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
    Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462
    RobD said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?

    Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
    Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
    That only gets you to 12800 or do not 38000 (which would take 10 days more).
  • rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
    However, 38 000 is very high.
    The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.

    The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)

    So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.

    But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.

    Buckle up, everyone
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    The future could be bleak for Johnson if the Boris Fanzine becomes hostile.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
    Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
    There's no way the GOP will win the House back
    If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,994
    edited September 16
    Re:Good Friday Agreement, methinks that US support and concern has VERY little to do with the goal of a United Ireland.

    Why? Because VERY few Americans - including Irish Americans - give a dying fiddler's final farewell feck about a United Ireland.

    On the other hand, most Americans a) support the rule of law; and b) oppose resumption of The Troubles.

    With reference to the later, note that from US view, undermining Good Friday Agreement is a threat NOT just to the Nationalist community, but equally to the Loyalists. IF the goal is peace with (at least a modicum) of justice.

    THAT is core problem with BoJo's gambit on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). And one NOT limited to Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Irish Americans or Democrats.

    Addendum - when the Prime Minister memorably stunk up the House of Commons the last time he faced the Leader of the Opposition, it was notable that, unlike Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson did NOT pay tribute to John Hume, a man who worked hard and risked much for the cause of peace. Even when prompted by other speakers who did.

    IF he really gives a damn about preserving peace, he certainly manages to keep it to himself.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462

    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    The future could be bleak for Johnson if the Boris Fanzine becomes hostile.
    It's a remarkable change in tone, question is is it a one off or will other articles appear
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,694
    edited September 16
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
    Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
    There's no way the GOP will win the House back
    If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
    It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
    However, 38 000 is very high.
    The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.

    The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)

    So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.

    But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.

    Buckle up, everyone
    If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,804
    edited September 16
    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for that greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
  • RobD said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?

    Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.
    Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?
    My wife and I report daily as one of c4m users of the Covid-19 ZOE app. The latest figures estimated from the reporting base is 5300 daily new cases and 61,900 active cases in the UK as of today.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.

    Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.

    No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.

    Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency

    I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.
    In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the other
    Did you canvas your own house by mistake?
    Snap!
    Yeah, sorry, just seen!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
    However, 38 000 is very high.
    The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.

    The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)

    So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.

    But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.

    Buckle up, everyone
    If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
    In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 495
    edited September 16

    Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640

    In the interests of balance.

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631

    Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.

    Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,804
    edited September 16
    There's a lot of discussion about cases, but not hospitalisations. I'd really like to see clear evidence of hospitalisations rising outside some parts of the north, wherever and if that's available.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462


    Although the same comment could be used for testing, schools (who are now sending whole forms and years home to self isolate for 2 wee,'s as tests can't be sorted)...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
    However, 38 000 is very high.
    The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.

    The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)

    So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.

    But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.

    Buckle up, everyone
    If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
    That’s true of most cases, full stop. Seven in ten are asymptomatic so most people who contract CV-19 will be none the wiser unless they get tested.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462

    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
    Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.

    Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
    Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.

    Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
    Agreed.
  • It’s not just Biden. This is Trump’s trade representative in testimony to Congress recently:
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 8,490
    edited September 16
    There are some bewildering differences amongst today batch of US polls. They don't seem to have impacted Betfair at all but Sporting Index have edged their spreads more in the direction of the betting exchange so hedges and arbs between the two will be harder to find.

    The spread punters have presumably started to take the view that the Rasmussen polls are the most likely to be wrong. There are therefore some rich pickings to be had if the reverse applies and you have the cojones to go with the firm that got 2016 right (but others seriously wrong).

    I don't and am sticking with Nate Silver's assessment which also edged a bit further in Biden's favor today - a 76% probability now (or a shade shorter than 3/1 on in bookie terms.)

    Edit: Oh, and congrats to the Aussies on pulling off a remarkable win. We've been treated to some great cricket this summer despite the Pandemic. Not quite over yet either. We can still look forward to Essex thrashing Somerset in the final of the Bob Willis trophy.

    Toodle pip, and nite nite all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.

    That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.

    (I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)

    The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussetts
    Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.
    There's no way the GOP will win the House back
    If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic year
    It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.
    Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018
  • dodrade said:

    Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640

    In the interests of balance.

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631

    Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.

    Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
    dodrade said:

    Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640

    In the interests of balance.

    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631

    Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.

    Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.


    The article you cite is very interesting, and makes some very valid points. BUT you own argument AND "balance" much LESS persuasive.

    You may be surprised that VERY few Americans have been worrying overmuch about the impact of Brexit on the Irish border. Why? Because we stupidly assumed that:

    > whatever the Brexit outcome, both Brits & EU would come to a agreement on this out of mutual interest;

    > which indeed they did - until BoJo decided to tear it up.

    Never occurred to us that the nation that went to war over "a scrape of paper" in 1914 would repeat the Kaiser's perfidy in 2020.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
    Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.

    Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
    I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.

    His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.

    Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.
    Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?
    Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
    So what is the absence?
    The absence of available testing for non-control surveillance group.
    Thought that would have been obvious.
    Or maybe you are still in the "world beating" laager?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329

    It’s not just Biden. This is Trump’s trade representative in testimony to Congress recently:

    But Trump's Secretary of State, unlike the Democrats, accepts the UK government's argument that will not be the case

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,638

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.
    However, 38 000 is very high.
    The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.

    The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)

    So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.

    But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.

    Buckle up, everyone
    If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.
    In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?
    I don't know but it doesn't strike me as implausible.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Oh, thank God - he's a member of 'Independent SAGE'.

    I was worried there for a moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 16

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
    Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Oh, thank God - he's a member of 'Independent SAGE'.

    I was worried there for a moment.
    If these 'doommongers' are wrong they deserve to be sacked. If Johnson is wrong lots of people might die. You should be worried.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,804
    edited September 16

    rcs1000 said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.
    The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.
    I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.
    Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.
    I thought that was supposed to have already got fully underway as an end-to-end process between September 1-14, though, leading to a noticeable increase in hospitalisations already by now. Either I've got the prediction wrong, or there's governmental confusion.
  • "in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462
    edited September 16

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:

    It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.
    ...and to the pub.

    Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
    Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/
    An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".
    Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.

    Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
    I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.

    His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.

    Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.
    We dropped eek twin b off last Wednesday. On Thursday there was a party in the flats attended by someone who had had a test of Thursday daytime. Last Friday we were told the test was positive so literally everyone in the block could be infected due to said person going to that party. Eek twin b thankfully wasn't at the party she had gone to the cinema (les miserables) and there was only 3 people in the screen so nothing to worry about there)
  • eekeek Posts: 9,462
    edited September 16

    "in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.

    They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn't
  • We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:

    He'll be on about punishment beatings soon.
This discussion has been closed.