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Not necessarily, in 1992 the Tories were openly rooting for Bush Snr, even sending staffers over to help the Republicans but Clinton won and despite a poor start he and Major patched things up.Stark_Dawning said:
Well quite. If Biden wins it hardly helps matters if he knows the UK's governing party was agitating for Trump. Boris has mucked things up with Anglo-US relations as it is. This sulky nonsense from the Tories is making our diplomats' lives even harder.eek said:
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Similarly in 2000 New Labour desperately wanted Gore to win but when Bush won Blair managed to famously build a great relationship with him.
However it is more a policy issue with Biden specifically regarding no border in the Irish Sea and a FTA0 -
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.0 -
Lol, just checking, is even mention of the name M*** F******* verboten?
The UK, not a fcuked up weird place in the slightest.1 -
#cancelculturePhilip_Thompson said:0 -
Saying a joke isn't funny is the same as calling for people to lose their jobs?Dura_Ace said:
#cancelculturePhilip_Thompson said:0 -
However for the UK the US remains our largest export market after the EU and our strongest military ally so who leads the US is of interest to us.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
The US is a superpower so has different priorities ie containing China in particular.
Biden it should also be pointed out is a friend of Neil Kinnock, no surprise after he plagiarised one of his speeches, so that will help rebuild the relationship between Starmer Labour and the Biden Democrats1 -
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.0 -
It's part policy, it's part the influence of the old guard in Democrat politics. Whilst the Irish Catholic influence has weakened over the years in the Democrat party machine, it is still important on the East Coast for many politicians and voters.HYUFD said:
Not necessarily, in 1992 the Tories were openly rooting for Bush Snr, even sending staffers over to help the Republicans but Clinton won and despite a poor start he and Major patched things up.Stark_Dawning said:
Well quite. If Biden wins it hardly helps matters if he knows the UK's governing party was agitating for Trump. Boris has mucked things up with Anglo-US relations as it is. This sulky nonsense from the Tories is making our diplomats' lives even harder.eek said:
As a politician in a different country you would think the sane approach would be to keep completely silent on the internal politics of other countries.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Similarly in 2000 New Labour desperately wanted Gore to win but when Bush won Blair managed to famously build a great relationship with him.
However it is more a policy issue with Biden specifically regarding no border in the Irish Sea and a FTA0 -
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.Stuartinromford said:
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine.BluestBlue said:
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?Jonathan said:So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...3 -
About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
I respected Cameron, I respected May.
Johnson like Trump I’m afraid, demeans the office.2 -
What did I say yesterday? The moment I read that he was a member of 'Independent Sage', I breathed a huge sigh of relief!RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515521 -
Classic whataboutery, and "it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found" is total bollocks. If it were so, the lockdown would have had no impact.BluestBlue said:
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.Stuartinromford said:
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine.BluestBlue said:
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?Jonathan said:So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...0 -
Didn't you once support Corbyn for that particular office?CorrectHorseBattery said:I respected Cameron, I respected May.
Johnson like Trump I’m afraid, demeans the office.1 -
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
0 -
Indeed, it is profoundly ironic that supposed free-marketeers are picking winners at a continental level. Asia good, Europe bad is no way to oversee an economy.SouthamObserver said:
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.1 -
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.2 -
I did, he would have been a better PM than JohnsonRobD said:
Didn't you once support Corbyn for that particular office?CorrectHorseBattery said:I respected Cameron, I respected May.
Johnson like Trump I’m afraid, demeans the office.0 -
But leaving the Single Market isn't abandoning trade with Europe any more than we have abandoned trade with the US by not having a deal with them.SouthamObserver said:
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.0 -
It is making it more expensive and more time consuming, while also reducing the services that can be sold into a market of 400 million people.Philip_Thompson said:
But leaving the Single Market isn't abandoning trade with Europe any more than we have abandoned trade with the US by not having a deal with them.SouthamObserver said:
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.
2 -
Its never been obvious to me how losing one set of customers helps gain another. What was restricting our businesses from seeking customers elsewhere such as Asia before?SouthamObserver said:
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.3 -
The same person you now want expelled from the party?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I did, he would have been a better PM than JohnsonRobD said:
Didn't you once support Corbyn for that particular office?CorrectHorseBattery said:I respected Cameron, I respected May.
Johnson like Trump I’m afraid, demeans the office.1 -
Barnier talking up prospects of a trade deal.
Who could have foreseen that?0 -
Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=200 -
I count myself as a Brexiteer but I agree with this view that it is crazy to start thinking of writing off entire continents. Europe is still an extremely rich place despite its long term issues. And, when you break down Asia, it is clear that it might not be the massive opportunity it is cracked up to be - that "opportunity" is essentially a China that is out of control and willing to stick two fingers up to the international community, and an India, which is still tied up in massive amounts of red tape and which is ruled by a nationalist Government. The rest of Asia? MmmmJonathan said:
Indeed, it is profoundly ironic that supposed free-marketeers are picking winners at a continental level. Asia good, Europe bad is no way to oversee an economy.SouthamObserver said:
We have had an office in Hong Kong for eight years, Phil. We make over 60% of our revenue from North America and the US. I don't believe there has to be a choice. There is no need to abandon huge trade benefits with Europe to make the most of opportunities elesewhere.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.0 -
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.0 -
The lockdown had a huge impact ... while it was happening. Once the lockdown was released, cases bounced back. I'm not arguing against the lockdown at all, but the fact is that it's a blunt, expensive, and temporary measure, even if it's the best we've got for now.Jonathan said:
Classic whataboutery, and "it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found" is total bollocks. If it were so, the lockdown would have had no impact.BluestBlue said:
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.Stuartinromford said:
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine.BluestBlue said:
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?Jonathan said:So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...0 -
I have no doubt the CMO is worried though, probably wanting some additional mitigation.BluestBlue said:
What did I say yesterday? The moment I read that he was a member of 'Independent Sage', I breathed a huge sigh of relief!RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
Theresa May would at least have known what her position was.Casino_Royale said:
May would have said and done nothing for weeks (or even months) and then popped up, announced her decision and then demanded everyone support it.Jonathan said:
The problem with May is that she would have been undermined by Boris carping from the sidelines, complaining about liberties and using the pandemic to bolster his reputation with right.Mexicanpete said:
I would go for Mrs May. She would at least have made an effort to do the right thing. We would have locked down two weeks sooner, and schools would have been prioritised over pubs.IshmaelZ said:
What's missing is basic competence, leadership and non-laziness. I truly feel that Gordon Brown, awful politician that he was, would have made a good fist of this. I'd much rather a pm who threw nokias at people over exam and testing cockups than one who just couldn't be arsed to.Peter_the_Punter said:
Looking at that list I'd have to say Johnson appears the least suited to the task. Thatcher would have been brilliant, but then she was a scientist and people trusted her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is just your political biasJonathan said:
May would have done better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
'Tests are available if you have a valid reason for one'kamski said:
Have to say mask-wearing in the street is a very small minority here in Cologne, and the other parts of Germany I have seen this year. Of course everyone wears masks in shops (except people working in them who seem to be exempt, strangely), and on public transport - that's the rules.OldKingCole said:
See that in UK, too. Pull them up in shops etc. Sometimes, anyway.IanB2 said:
Pretty much universal. In Germany and Italy pretty widespread in the streets as well, particularly among older folk. Younger Italians walk around wearing their masks under their chins, or in a few cases hanging from one ear.WhisperingOracle said:
Interesting account. Is mask-wearing in shops common throughout ?IanB2 said:
Having been through France, Germany, Austria and now Italy, life seems to be continuing pretty much as normal, with the exception of a handful of suspended activities like night clubs. distancing and mask wearing are being observed more religiously than at home (not so much distancing in France, and mask wearing only where required) but they do seem to be pretty much relying on masks, and doing their best to keep apart in the street, now to stem any second wave. Schools, shops, workplaces, retail and hospitality all open and relatively busy, traffic pretty normal. I can’t comment on testing.WhisperingOracle said:
Those Spanish figures do sound concerning. By smaller countries are you thinking of Greece ? It seems to fulfil most of the criteria you've laid out, although I'm not sure of the testing situation for them at the moment.alex_ said:
Well Spanish deaths (not hospitalisation) were 239 yesterday. That’s a massive increase. Or was this some sort of backdated adjustment?WhisperingOracle said:
I don't think the quibbles are unreasonable - but then again I wouldn't, as I've raised some of them. The thing is, I haven't seen the data so far from around Europe about hospitalisations increasingly hugely yet, either. There was a graph from France that seemed to indicate that that's happened there, but I've not seen anything else. I'm not suggesting that this clearly isn't happening, just really wanting to see the facts as clearly as possible, if we're going to be moving into another situation of national lockdown.dixiedean said:
I would guess so too.FrancisUrquhart said:
I would guess its both, an increase in cases and an increase in people wanting a test because all of a sudden they are going back to school, work, uni, where your environment involves interacting with a lot more people and the suspicion that every unwell people you have come into contact with has the plague.dixiedean said:Fact.
We have a big spike in demand for Covid tests.
Isn't it just possible that the reason may be a spike in Covid symptoms?
And isn't it possible that that is caused, at least partially, by a spike in Covid cases?
Other explanations seem a bit more convoluted.
Of course it may be wrong, but Occam had a razor...
I just find the quibbling about deaths and hospitalsations a little irritating.
We know cases are rising across Europe. We know the world is setting record infections daily.
Why the Hell should we be exempt from the trend?
The really interesting figures to watch might be many of the smaller EU countries which were very quick to act first time round (and reaped the reward) but may be being a lot more tardy now. And quite possibly aren’t doing much testing as they never geared up to accommodate large numbers.
One minor complaint; the standard mask, with 'strings' round the ears is difficult to manage if one has both hearing aids AND glasses!
Tests seem to be readily available if you have a valid reason to get one. There's been a bit of pressure on the labs as demand has increased recently, but if you get the test done in a hospital you'll still usually get the result within 24 hours. If you go through your GP it might take an extra day - I assume the doctors' practices are just less efficient at getting the test to the lab.
At my son's school all the staff are tested once a week. There have already been 2 positive cases among staff, which led to parts of the school being closed for a day, but no further spread. Testing of school staff once a week is available, but not compulsory, throughout NRW. Most schools that I know of seem to be doing it.
And that is the issue in the UK.
Far too many are seeking tests when they just have a seasonal cold and in some cases mild symptoms and this excessive demand is overwhelming the system.
On 5 live business this morning a person involved in testing did confirm that a test cost about £100 when taking into account, not just the logistics, but the capital costs of setting up bio secure labs and training staff.
She went on to say this issue is mirrored in France and across the world as the cases surge
I do not believe any government of any party or coalition would have performed any better but of course Boris's idiotic behaviour has not helped
Cameron would have done better.
Brown would have done better.
Blair would have done better.
Major would have done better.
Thatcher would have done better.
Callaghan would have done better
Wilson would have done better.
Heath would have done better.
A lot of global political leaders have enhanced their reputation but some have suffered. Trump has done particularly badly. Johnson started well but fell away badly after the Cummings fiasco and it's got worse since.
Once minor silver lining of all this is that right have been tied to the Brexit response. They are would have been giving any other pm hell. Goodness know how much shit Corbyn would have got about socialism and government control he had done the exact same things as Sunak and Boris.
She had zero people skills.
Boris cannot be bothered even to understand his own official pronouncements. His musing that the rule of six really meant sixty at an Animal House party, for instance, is strikingly similar to his early presser where he dutifully recited the lockdown rules but then added he was looking forward to seeing his dear old mum on Mothers Day.
Has there been another prime minister like this? I cannot think of one.0 -
Wasn't leave.eu always pro-Trump though?HYUFD said:Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=200 -
The difference is that Brexiteers were a majority of the country in the Referendum.MrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
White supremacists are not a majority of Americans.0 -
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.1 -
I'm sure he is, rightly, but there's a huge gap between that and advising an immediate national lockdown, not to mention his claim that UK cases are now really at US levels and we just haven't realized it yet.RobD said:
I have no doubt the CMO is worried though, probably wanting some additional mitigation.BluestBlue said:
What did I say yesterday? The moment I read that he was a member of 'Independent Sage', I breathed a huge sigh of relief!RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
-
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515522 -
No, they are not but, for many, it is not a question of race, it's a question of values, which is a different matter.Philip_Thompson said:
The difference is that Brexiteers were a majority of the country in the Referendum.MrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
White supremacists are not a majority of Americans.
To them, people like Kasich were quite willing to sell out American jobs to China for the sake of big business and would do nothing to protect American values being trampled by the likes of Antifa / BLM.
What @Casino_Royale said was right. Many will hold their noses because they feel like they need someone prepared to slug it out and not back down to protect what they cherish.
1 -
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515521 -
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
I am not so sure. There is an argument that, when it comes to values, the Republicans are closer to Black and Hispanic (especially evangelical ones) than the Democrats. Expect more emphasis on this and the failures of Democrat-led cities to improve the lives of Black voters. If a second term is focused on a massive infrastructure revamp that may be the opening to drive a federally-led programme in the cities.HYUFD said:
If Trump is re elected I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got ObamaMrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.0 -
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.1 -
Dunno. They are always fighting down the back alley next to me.Andy_JS said:"What cats taught me about philosophy
They have as their birth-right the freedom from unrest that humans have tried to achieve
BY JOHN GRAY"
https://unherd.com/2020/09/cats-can-teach-us-how-to-live/0 -
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
Though Utah is also unchanged for Trump on 2016, an 18% Trump lead in the state, so he is also not piling up votes in safe Red statesAlistair said:
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.0 -
That is definitely more convincing, yes!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
You're such a muppet.HYUFD said:Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=20
Leave.EU is Faragist not Conservative and have always been pro-Trump.
And you pretend to not like Trump. Why bother pretending?1 -
The problem with 24 hour news is that 24 hours has to be filled even if there is no real news.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515521 -
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
No strong evidence that the adverse reaction seen in one of the Oxford vaccine trial participants was caused by the vaccine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/adverse-reaction-oxford-vaccine-may-not-have-caused-jab/5 -
Maybe all the democrats in Southern Cal are slipping down into Texas to vote there?Alistair said:
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
0 -
Er, isn't that Nigel's lot?HYUFD said:Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=202 -
Er what is the relevance of this to anything? I'm surprised that more people have never been to London and that as many as half visit in a given year to be honest. Before I lived in London I never came here much either. And I've never been to Bristol or Hull, but that doesn't mean I don't think they are important places. Similarly in the last 12 months I probably haven't been to any major city outside London except for Leeds and Edinburgh, but that doesn't mean I think Manchester and Birmingham are unimportant. People go on about too much focus on London, it's not true. There is too much focus on the upper middle class, the majority of whom live in London and the Home Counties (the latter being completely different from London BTW). But I don't think I have ever seen my own Borough of Lewisham mentioned in the news, for instance, and there are 300k people living here.HYUFD said:0 -
I would have thought an ideal poll for Biden would have been the last one where Trump had significantly cut the lead in California but with no chance of winning i.e. Trump is losing even more ground in Battleground states.Alistair said:
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
That poll also suggests the GOP will re-capture a number of House seats in CA this time round.1 -
-
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama1 -
I don't think we will have a full national lockdown. There are still huge areas of the country (particularly rural areas) which have very low COVID.RobD said:
That is definitely more convincing, yes!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
Is it Kenny MacAskill? I bet it's Kenny MacAskill.Scott_xP said:
Reads story
Lo, it was Kenny MacAskill.0 -
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
New Zealand hit by its worst recession since current measurement began in 1987 as gdp sank by 12.2% between April and June during its lockdown and border closures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54186359
0 -
I live in one of those rural areas with very low Covid.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I don't think we will have a full national lockdown. There are still huge areas of the country (particularly rural areas) which have very low COVID.RobD said:
That is definitely more convincing, yes!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306496397529751552
I'm going into semi-lockdown as of midnight.0 -
HYUFD said:
Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=20
Further evidence of the complete redundancy of the tag 'globalist' for credulous idiots. Trump is a full-on supporter of globalist financialisation, and many of the leading Brexiters are, financially and ideoligically speaking, ultra-globalists.0 -
It does basically have to be a city shut down it seems. Quite how you sell 'just' that is another matter.GarethoftheVale2 said:
I don't think we will have a full national lockdown. There are still huge areas of the country (particularly rural areas) which have very low COVID.RobD said:
That is definitely more convincing, yes!rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 20240 -
Boris strikes again...HYUFD said:New Zealand hit by its worst recession since current measurement began in 1987 as gdp sank by 12.2% between April and June during its lockdown and border closures
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54186359
Wait, other countries are having serious issues because of the pandemic? No way!2 -
Need to rule out ski holidays now.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515521 -
Young techie people in my twitters have been complaining that they moved away from California over the rona to various places like Texas and Utah only to find it full of fellow Californian migrants.Alistair said:
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
I don't think we really have a good read on the scale of the migrations that have happened this year.0 -
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
No it is not just Faragist, eg the current Tory Leader of the House, Jacob Rees Mogg, a key member of Boris' Cabinet is an active supporter of Leave.EUPhilip_Thompson said:
You're such a muppet.HYUFD said:Further evidence of the Leavers shift towards Trump and away from Biden
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1306521021768327168?s=20
Leave.EU is Faragist not Conservative and have always been pro-Trump.
And you pretend to not like Trump. Why bother pretending?
https://leave.eu/full-text-jacob-rees-moggs-brexit-speech/0 -
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 20240 -
Perhaps they'll interpret "term" as the SNP interpret "generation"?Gallowgate said:
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 20240 -
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.Gallowgate said:
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama3 -
So we will have some broad categories (with overlap) of 2016 Trump voters -MrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
1. Those who really liked him.
2. Those who always vote Republican.
3. Those who were dubious about him but thought him worth a go.
I think he keeps all of (1) but loses a few % of both (2) and (3).
Which puts him right behind the eight ball.0 -
Sure - but it’s still a wildcard. It certainly isn’t certain.MaxPB said:
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.Gallowgate said:
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama0 -
The 22nd amendment of the constitutionGallowgate said:
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all2 -
There are a few types of pb commentary which are pretty much guaranteed to be dumb and one of them is "broad generalization about the unstated opinions of people you don't agree with".Philip_Thompson said:
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.0 -
Tbh, if we're talking about term limits then I'd expect a 9-0 loss for Trump running again.Gallowgate said:
Sure - but it’s still a wildcard. It certainly isn’t certain.MaxPB said:
And yet the two justices that Trump has picked have both chosen the constitution over loyalty to Trump when presented with the opportunity.Gallowgate said:
RBG dies and suddenly it’s 5-4 and 4 years is a long time.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a 6-3 decision with Gorsuch and Roberts joining the liberal justices. Gorsuch certainly takes the constitution seriously.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama1 -
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.HYUFD said:
The 22nd amendment of the constitutionGallowgate said:
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all2 -
Given the fundamental changes within the constitution of the UK since the 2014 referendum I find it surprising that people are still using Generation as a valid argument. Yes it should have been a once in a generation vote but things have fundamentally changed since...RobD said:
Perhaps they'll interpret "term" as the SNP interpret "generation"?0 -
Which is why the Democrats in Texas at longer than 3/1 is a good bet.edmundintokyo said:
Young techie people in my twitters have been complaining that they moved away from California over the rona to various places like Texas and Utah only to find it full of fellow Californian migrants.Alistair said:
That California poll is an excellent poll for Biden. Just superb.HYUFD said:
Clinton got 61.7% in California. For Biden to be even a point down there means he's not piling up votes in safe Blue states.
I don't think we really have a good read on the scale of the migrations that have happened this year.1 -
New thread
WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets - Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin0 -
I believe the question in the poll is faulty. It should be two questions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes I saw that on the Welsh news last nightMexicanpete said:
Just a wedding? The Rhonnda Cynon Taff lockdown origins are beyond parody. A coach load of pissed up rugby clubbers go for a jolly to Doncaster races, indulging in a pub crawl across England and Wales.Foxy said:
Worth noting though how ineffective current measures are, with cases doubling in Oldham despite the new rules.Gallowgate said:A second lockdown will be much less well observed by the public. That much is obvious.
Leicester rules have never been fully relaxed, yet are on the uptick. Rumours that the Oadby and Wigston outbreak relates to a wedding with excessive numbers of guests.
We have been told to clear our backlog of waiting list by January. Delusional doesn’t come into it.
The poll that showed 49% believe that any second wave is the public fault v 31% HMG comes to mind
Are idiots to blame for a second wave?
Predicted answer: Yes 90% No 5% (because we are idiots) D/K 5% (because we are idiots)
Have the government actively encouraged idiots to generate a second wave with their Go out and get blind drunk, to help out policy?
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Eh? Surely nobody in their right mind would be planning to go to the alps in the middle of a pandemic. What's wrong with staying at home, drinking and watching TV like normal people do at Xmas?FrancisUrquhart said:
Need to rule out ski holidays now.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Depending on timing, you could imagine the government adding a week either side of the school holidays at Christmas and enforcing more measures, telling everyone to stay home and enjoy Xmas with their nuclear family to create a four week firebreak to suppress any winter outbreak, get us through to the spring and perhaps a vaccine thereafter. Would seem a reasonable compromise that would minimise the economic disruption as things are quiet then anyway.rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1306507593259646979RobD said:
Ah, that was the "absence of testing" tweet. That did seem odd to me, especially given the ONS does this sort of surveillance testing all the time. More twitter bollocks.tlg86 said:
The original tweet was shown on Sky News this morning. OFCOM should be on to them as reporting gossip on this subject should be a big no no.RobD said:About the CMO wanting a 2-week lockdown.
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13064963975297515520 -
The Mail is putting the boot into Dido Harding today.0
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'Why did you post this?'
'Oh, no reason..'
https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1306533390246608897?s=200 -
Pence still leads the early 2024 GOP nomination polling ahead of Trump Jnr and Haley, Ivanka gets just 3%.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.HYUFD said:
The 22nd amendment of the constitutionGallowgate said:
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all
If Trump wins as VP Pence will likely be the 2024 GOP nominee, even if Trump loses Pence will also likely be the nominee eg Carter's VP Mondale was the 1984 Democratic nominee after Carter lost his re election battle in 1980
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1294045129834213382?s=200 -
Yeah he'll never be able to run for a third term.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, if Trump got a second term and wanted a third I think he'd put up a puppet, probably Ivanka, who seems like the most telegenic and un-cocaine-ravaged member of his family.HYUFD said:
The 22nd amendment of the constitutionGallowgate said:
The Supreme Court decides what is constitutional.HYUFD said:
Congress and the state legislatures neither of which will have a 2/3 majority required to change the constitution even if it is a Trump landslide in November.Gallowgate said:
Who’s going to stop him? A pro-Trump Supreme Court?HYUFD said:
He can't under the Constitution and to change that requires a 2/3 majority in both the House and Senate and 2/3 of state legislatures to approve which won't happenRobD said:
If Trump wins again who is saying he won't run again in 2024. What was the chant, twelve more years... twelve more years?HYUFD said:
Agree on the GOP establishment who are largely upper middle class while Trump's base is working class and lower middle class (much like the Tory establishment and the Tory vote under Boris).MrEd said:
Quite. They are out of touch with the "modern" GOP.HYUFD said:
Indeed and most of them live in California or Seattle or New York or DC and the North East of the US and voted for Hillary in 2016 anywayMrEd said:
The Republican politicians, like Kasich, rooting for Biden are part of the problem to many Trump voters. It's like saying that the Red Wall voters are going to not vote Conservative because of the views of Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve.Philip_Thompson said:
I think a significant enough chunk of voters will. The sheer number of lifetime GOP campaigners and politicians saying they would vote Biden this year, the Lincoln Project/Republican voters against Trump movement is not insignificant.Casino_Royale said:
I don't expect many who voted Trump in 2016 to vote anything different this time.Stark_Dawning said:
Perhaps the Leavers should do a letter-writing campaign - contact voters in swing states and urge them to vote Trump.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win
They know he's a son of a bitch but he's their son of a bitch.
The culture wars and Wokeness are even worse over in America than here. Statues coming down all the time, including of famous presidents, and whites are being excluded from university campuses in the name of "safe spaces".
Starmer has successfully distanced himself from most of that nonsense over here. Biden and the Democrats have not.
If I were a WWC voter in a swing state I might feel I had little choice but to hold my nose and vote for Trump.
Biden will win (or fail) on his ability to increase Democratic turnout and squeeze third parties.
That may not apply to the WWC racist tendency Trumpits of 2016 but those voters voted with the lifelong GOP voters in 2016, they weren't the entire vote.
Like with Johnson here, Trump has pivoted the electoral base of the GOP radically and permanently. If he does win a second term, then I would expect to focus on expanding that base out to try to capture the Hispanic and Black vote, which would decimate the Democrat's electoral base.
If Trump is re elected however I would expect the Democrats to win in 2024, Trump cannot run again and Pence will not have the same appeal to the Trump coalition, Trump is also still not making as big inroads with the Hispanic and Black vote as George W Bush did in 2004 and 4 years later we got Obama
Constitutionally if he cannot run he cannot be on the ballot in 2024
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.'
It does not matter how conservative a judge is they are not going to ignore one of the main parts of the Constitution like that, SC judges argue about the scope of the constitution and amendments, they do not argue the constitution and its amendments do not exist at all2 -
I know, I know, it's all my fault for turning you into a moronic Trump supporter because I was rude to you after you became one.Casino_Royale said:
You need to appeal to those who don't already agree with you, if that's what you really care about most.kamski said:
Even a child knows that global overheating threatens our interests far more than any of those things. Not voting to get rid of Trump is pretty much a crime against humanity, given what we know.Casino_Royale said:
A Biden regime would see a post-Brexit Johnson-led UK as unfinished business from the defeat of Trump, and treat us accordingly. He'd try and squeeze us out and bring us to heel.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Trump is ruthlessly self-interested, isolationist and reckless on the global stage (although weirdly that sometimes gets him results) but isn't hostile to the UK. His noises over NATO and Russia threaten our defence interests - they probably help them a bit with China.
This is why I'm feeling increasingly neutral and would go third party.
I might suggest that's not the most effective way of going about it.0 -
https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1306514843474841601Cyclefree said:The Mail is putting the boot into Dido Harding today.
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How countries have dealt with the pandemic is indeed largely a result of the institutions that were already in place (and to some extent the prevailing culture in particular countries).BluestBlue said:
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.Stuartinromford said:
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine.BluestBlue said:
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?Jonathan said:So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
But competent vs. incompetent leadership does make a difference at the margin. Downing St is perhaps a playpen, compared to the dumpster fire in the White House.0 -
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I love your black and white world. If only life really was that straightforward.HYUFD said:
Trump is not hostile to the UK, in fact he is pro Boris and pro Brexit.Mexicanpete said:
So you would prefer Trump? A 'loudly' hostile regime to the UK in the White House.Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
That does not mean if I were American I would not vote for Biden but as Casino states from the perspective of a Leave voting Briton their main interest in the US election is who is most likely to give us a FTA which we will need with the US once as is likely we end up with no trade deal with the EU.
Now the internal market bill looks set to pass that is clearly not Biden but Trump, so Casino is right if you are a hard Brexiteer in the UK and a pro Boris Tory logically you would prefer Trump to be re elected and the GOP to win Congress, if you are a Remainer or Labour or LD or SNP supporter or a soft Brexit, pro EEA Leaver then you would still prefer Biden and the Democrats to win1 -
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Part of the issue is also governments having the best people in charge or their mates. Once again we seem to be living through a chumocracy, it feels as though we have been for the better part of 20 years with politicians giving important roles to their mates rather than the best person for the job.Nigelb said:
How countries have dealt with the pandemic is indeed largely a result of the institutions that were already in place (and to some extent the prevailing culture in particular countries).BluestBlue said:
Well, we all suffer from the defects of our virtues. Personally, I think the certitude some posters have that everything would be all right if only X had been in charge is a silly, albeit very human, delusion. We have an epochal health crisis striking the whole world in successive waves, and the truth, which is so frightening that we may not wish to admit it to ourselves, is that the virus doesn't really care who's running the country, what degree they have, or what life experience - it's going to do what it's going to do, until a vaccine is found.Stuartinromford said:
BoJo has definite, genuine skills. A decent turn of phrase. An ability to stir the creative pot in a constructive way as the editor of a somewhat gadflyish current affairs magazine.BluestBlue said:
Did you know that a global pandemic was coming in 2020, and that therefore the Prime Minister should be an epidemiologist (not that one was available in any party)? Why on earth did you keep this crucial information to yourself?Jonathan said:So a journalist/pundit who studied Classics is not the best in leading a national response to a pandemic.
Who knew? 🤷♂️
BoJo is also well-versed in some darker, but necessary arts. He can work out what people want to hear from him and tell them that. He can make people like him, in the short term anyway. Useful in a politician.
What's harder to discern is how his skill set or life experience match the job of being Prime Minister. Not just during a pandemic, but during anything other than a jolly August Bank Holiday.
Politically, Johnson is a pound-shop Gyles Brandreth, except he has a worse work ethic, narrower life experience and a lack of self-reflection to realise how out of his depth he is.
Macron is an énarque, trained in the art of national administration in an academy founded for that specific purpose, which generates a governing elite far narrower than Oxbridge does. Cases are out of control in France too...
But competent vs. incompetent leadership does make a difference at the margin. Downing St is perhaps a playpen, compared to the dumpster fire in the White House.1 -
Maybe that could be Boris' next BIG 'moonshot' project. Towing England and Wales into the South China Sea.Philip_Thompson said:
Because the future is in Asia not Europe.SouthamObserver said:
The reality is that they have all - Democrat and Republican, up to and including Trump - been much more interested in Asia than Europe. The Republicans have a better relationship with the Conservative party than do the Democrats. After five years of Corbyn, Labour has lost a lot of its sway with the Democrats. The UK really isn't of much interest to anyone in the US, beyond what the US can get from us.HYUFD said:
However in real terms we also remember in 2004 that while most Britons preferred Kerry to win the Blair administration from what we now know secretly wanted Bush to win given Kerry's statement he would shift towards France and Germany and away from the UK if he won as a result of the UK's support for Bush in the Iraq War.kamski said:
Of course, Tory MPs are increasingly a bunch of sociopathic gangsters like the US Republicans, so not very surprising.HYUFD said:
Indeed Geoffrey Clifton Brown, a backbench Tory MP, on Newsnight yesterday also confirmed his fellow Tory MPs were now increasingly split on whether they want Biden or Trump to win unlike opposition MPs who of course all want Biden to win (with the exception of the pro Trump DUP) and Boris of course has praised Trump for 'making America great again'Casino_Royale said:The antics of the Democrats are starting to make me feel neutral about the outcome of the US Presidential election.
I don't want a quietly hostile regime to the UK in the White House.
Apart from the Clintons and maybe Gore all recent Democratic nominees, Kerry, Biden and of course Obama after his 'back of the queue' remarks and statement that Merkel was his favourite fellow world leader and removal of the Churchill bust from the Oval Office Trump restored, have favoured the EU and continental Europe over the UK. Republicans have favoured the UK over the EU
Brexiteers have grasped this concept, hence the talk in recent years of joining the CPTPP.
Remainers still think Europe is the whole world. Glad you are coming around to our way of thinking.0 -
I was reluctantly coming to that conclusion myself. A victim of its own success, perhaps.Foxy said:
I think that Rishi Meal Deals will prove to have been a massive own goal.DavidL said:So let me ask a different question. Why did the incidence of the disease fall so consistently from May to late July to very low levels? What were we doing right that we are not doing now?
We were not wearing anything like the same number of masks so that should be an improvement.
We were not doing anything like the same number of tests but of those that we did the percentage of positives was on a downward trend, now reversed.
We did have more lockdown provisions in place, especially for restaurants and bars.
We basically closed educational institutes, both schools and Universities.
We had less travel.
We had restrictions on groups meeting up which are now back in place with the rule of 6.
We were going into a rather nice summer and spent quite a lot of time outside.
My tentative conclusion is that no matter how much we want, need, to get things back to normal masks are just not cutting it. Bars and restaurants have tried (for the most part) to comply with conditions but it just hasn't worked. We need to close them again. And gyms. And stop those selfish idiots who think that they have the right to go on holiday pandemic or no.
Schools and Universities is the tough one. My son's exams were messed up and devalued this year. I really, really don't want a repeat. But I can't help feeling that the return of hundreds of thousands of students to their place of study is going to greatly accelerate our new infection rates over the next month. If I am right what will people think in late October, especially if the lagging death rate starts to catch up again? I am deeply apprehensive.0
This discussion has been closed.