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Not been here all day, but timed it perfectly!0
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It's almost as if the Dems have a proprietorial interest in NI.0
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So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency0 -
3rd. Rate. Like the test and track.0
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Given the role of Congress in the Good Friday Agreement you could argue that they havegeoffw said:It's almost as if the Dems have a proprietorial interest in NI.
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I couldn't give a wet shit which drooling dementia-ridden Boomer wins the Presidency, to be honest.1
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Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.3 -
Joe Biden should keep out of UK politics.7
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I’ve been told many times by leavers that no deal is nothing to worry about, so what’s the problem?HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency1 -
Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERSHYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative
As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump1 -
Compare and contrastAndy_JS said:Joe Biden should keep out of UK politics.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1306267243978862594?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1306334039557586944?s=20
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1304113778515161089?s=200 -
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.0 -
There probably wasn't much chance of a comprehensive UK-US trade deal under any circumstances, under either of the two presidential contenders, Congress is hostile to such deals, even without the latest antics of Boris, and the US industrial and agricultural lobbies would be pushing for terms we couldn't conceivably accept (GM foods, 'chlorinated chicken', better access to the UK healthcare market, etc). Moreover there's not much we can gain on the other side of the ledger: the big prize would be better access for selling financial services in the US, but there's no chance of that. Quite apart from anything else, individual US states have a lot of the say.
In other words, the line which Vote Leave were pushing about wonderful opportunities for doing great trade deals to replace or even outweigh the damage to our EU market access was always utter fantasy.
But whatever the chance was before the latest antics of the government, it is zero now. The trust is already lost.
What we should be worrying about more is first of all what damage Boris has done to our relations with the EU, and secondly to our general reputation with the US and other countries, It's a really spectacular, completely unnecessary, own-goal.
Thanks, Boris and Dom.7 -
The Good Friday Agreement is international politics.Andy_JS said:Joe Biden should keep out of UK politics.
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I am not a Trump supporter as such but on this specific issue he is pro Brexit and pro UK FTA, Biden and Pelosi most certainly are notBig_G_NorthWales said:
Speak for yourself and your fellow UKIPPERSHYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
And you are trying to twist support for Trump with your new narrative
As I said before nobody sane of mind and body would vote for Trump0 -
As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
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You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.0 -
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.1 -
The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)3 -
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.1 -
Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in NovemberMrEd said:As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
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We are free. Now stop whining.kyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.0 -
Let's dissolve the UK then so it can be.kyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.0 -
We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/13063517455436144700 -
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.kyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.1 -
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
But we only know t he test system has failed because we e are paying attention to the issue - yes testing is on the news but the true r e ality and why it can't be fixed hasn't reached the general public yet.williamglenn said:We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/13063517455436144700 -
I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honestWhisperingOracle said:
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.kyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.0 -
Any major trading partner is going to have a say in any number of issues affecting sovereignty. All there is to see here is a fantasy dying ; that's all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not convinced the US getting involved in Brexit is a good move to be honestWhisperingOracle said:
No modern country can be free in isolation. The fantasy is coming up hard against the reality - as it always would.kyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.1 -
Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency1 -
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180221 -
PB Trumpers like Karen from Will and Gracekyf_100 said:
And Biden can take his chlorinated chicken and stuff it up his ar*ehole.williamglenn said:
You referred to the influence of the back of the queue comments on the referendum. In the real world it doesn't matter if the UK electorate is pissed off about what other countries think. They don't owe us any favours.kyf_100 said:
You think I welcome the Yanks telling us what to do?williamglenn said:
You plan to vote yourself a trade deal with Biden?kyf_100 said:Back of the queue.
Worked well the last time.
I want my country to be free.
https://youtu.be/w_JwOm6sISw0 -
which reflects their increasing delusion and insanity. To hope for a Trump victory is almost disqualifying.HYUFD said:
Geoffrey Clifton Brown on Newsnight made clear Tory MPs were increasingly split on who they wanted to win in NovemberMrEd said:As HYFUD (I think) has said, as long as Johnson remains PM, it is probably in the UK's interest to have Trump re-elected. Biden's comments, together with Pelosi's and others, make it clear there will be a price to pay for Johnson's reported admiration for Trump.
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Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency0 -
There is always oneHYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency0 -
Thread interruption..,
You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.- CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
- Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
- My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
- My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
http://ifreetrade.org/pdfs/UK-CPTPP.pdf
0 - CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
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Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday seems like it might not have been the best idea....Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180221 -
I have just seen the dialogue between Johnson and Benn. A simply unbelievable response from Johnson regarding the rebuttal of his claim made moments earlier regarding EU bad faith in the negotiations.williamglenn said:We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/13063517455436144701 -
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
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https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1306262582211248128?s=09williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180221 -
Not much chance of a USA deal perhaps under Biden, but the UK shouldn't want one under Trump.4
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The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.43566403 -
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
There's no way the GOP will win the House backrcs1000 said:
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
You canvassed your own house? ;-)HYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency4 -
HYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency
As a Hillary supporting Remainer, I take it you failed to get their pledge.0 -
Better to lockdown for 2 weeks now than have to do it for 6 weeks in a month's time.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
Boris just wants a photo with Trump and the right to say - look I told you we could get a deal. And we already know, Boris won't won't read it or have it sanity checked before signing because - experts.FF43 said:Not much chance of a USA deal perhaps under Biden, but the UK shouldn't want one under Trump.
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I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.0 -
Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?RobD said:
The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.0 -
Did you canvas your own house by mistake?HYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency1 -
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.0 -
Snap!Anabobazina said:
Did you canvas your own house by mistake?HYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency1 -
So what is the absence?dixiedean said:
Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?RobD said:
The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.0 -
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?LostPassword said:
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.0 -
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.1 -
That only gets you to 12800 or do not 38000 (which would take 10 days more).RobD said:
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?LostPassword said:
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.0 -
However, 38 000 is very high.williamglenn said:
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone0 -
The future could be bleak for Johnson if the Boris Fanzine becomes hostile.eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.0 -
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic yearnot_on_fire said:
There's no way the GOP will win the House backrcs1000 said:
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
Re:Good Friday Agreement, methinks that US support and concern has VERY little to do with the goal of a United Ireland.
Why? Because VERY few Americans - including Irish Americans - give a dying fiddler's final farewell feck about a United Ireland.
On the other hand, most Americans a) support the rule of law; and b) oppose resumption of The Troubles.
With reference to the later, note that from US view, undermining Good Friday Agreement is a threat NOT just to the Nationalist community, but equally to the Loyalists. IF the goal is peace with (at least a modicum) of justice.
THAT is core problem with BoJo's gambit on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific). And one NOT limited to Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Irish Americans or Democrats.
Addendum - when the Prime Minister memorably stunk up the House of Commons the last time he faced the Leader of the Opposition, it was notable that, unlike Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson did NOT pay tribute to John Hume, a man who worked hard and risked much for the cause of peace. Even when prompted by other speakers who did.
IF he really gives a damn about preserving peace, he certainly manages to keep it to himself.2 -
It's a remarkable change in tone, question is is it a one off or will other articles appearMexicanpete said:
The future could be bleak for Johnson if the Boris Fanzine becomes hostile.eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.1 -
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.HYUFD said:
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic yearnot_on_fire said:
There's no way the GOP will win the House backrcs1000 said:
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.Stuartinromford said:
However, 38 000 is very high.williamglenn said:
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone1 -
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for that greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.0 -
My wife and I report daily as one of c4m users of the Covid-19 ZOE app. The latest figures estimated from the reporting base is 5300 daily new cases and 61,900 active cases in the UK as of today.RobD said:
Not too outlandish. Weren't they saying doubling every eight days?LostPassword said:
We have the ONS survey to help with this sort of thing. The latest estimate, for England, for the week ending 5th September, is 3,200 per day. So that's two weeks ago. Is it credible that the incidence rate has increased by a factor of 10 in that time?Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Still, it's not much comfort if it's only trebled instead.0 -
Yeah, sorry, just seen!not_on_fire said:
Snap!Anabobazina said:
Did you canvas your own house by mistake?HYUFD said:
In Epping I canvassed one house with Brexit stickers and Vote Leave stickers all over one window and Trump stickers and 'Make America Great Again' baseball caps in the othernot_on_fire said:
I highly doubt anyone is driving around in the UK with a Trump bumper sticker, but whoever is president is almost irrelevant from the POV of a trade deal given the Democrats will certainly hold Congress.HYUFD said:So it is now clear a Biden administration will throw Boris and the UK under a bus unless it rejoins the EEA or builds a border in the Irish Sea and we can forget about a trade deal if the Democrats win in November.
Meanwhile Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State remained full of optimism about a US and UK trade deal tonight.
No wonder more and more Leavers are bringing out their 'Make America Great Again' hats and Trump bumper stickers.
Many Remainers however are looking forward with glee to the prospect of a No Deal Brexit and Britain divorced from the EU and with a 'special relationship' shoved firmly in the freezer under a Biden presidency0 -
In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?williamglenn said:
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.Stuartinromford said:
However, 38 000 is very high.williamglenn said:
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone0 -
In the interests of balance.LostPassword said:Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
1 -
There's a lot of discussion about cases, but not hospitalisations. I'd really like to see clear evidence of hospitalisations rising outside some parts of the north, wherever and if that's available.1
-
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1306362275889020929
Although the same comment could be used for testing, schools (who are now sending whole forms and years home to self isolate for 2 wee,'s as tests can't be sorted)...0 -
That’s true of most cases, full stop. Seven in ten are asymptomatic so most people who contract CV-19 will be none the wiser unless they get tested.williamglenn said:
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.Stuartinromford said:
However, 38 000 is very high.williamglenn said:
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone0 -
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.WhisperingOracle said:
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill0 -
Agreed.eek said:
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.WhisperingOracle said:
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill0 -
It’s not just Biden. This is Trump’s trade representative in testimony to Congress recently:
https://twitter.com/jibbajabb/status/1303703528792358913?s=212 -
There are some bewildering differences amongst today batch of US polls. They don't seem to have impacted Betfair at all but Sporting Index have edged their spreads more in the direction of the betting exchange so hedges and arbs between the two will be harder to find.
The spread punters have presumably started to take the view that the Rasmussen polls are the most likely to be wrong. There are therefore some rich pickings to be had if the reverse applies and you have the cojones to go with the firm that got 2016 right (but others seriously wrong).
I don't and am sticking with Nate Silver's assessment which also edged a bit further in Biden's favor today - a 76% probability now (or a shade shorter than 3/1 on in bookie terms.)
Edit: Oh, and congrats to the Aussies on pulling off a remarkable win. We've been treated to some great cricket this summer despite the Pandemic. Not quite over yet either. We can still look forward to Essex thrashing Somerset in the final of the Bob Willis trophy.
Toodle pip, and nite nite all.1 -
Trump won't win California no but a few polls have shown Trump doing better in the state than he did in 2016 which might help the GOP win back seats in places like Orange County they lost in 2018not_on_fire said:
It's vanishingly unlikely the GOP will regain the house. Most of the Dem gains in 2018 were in California which is not going to switch back to Trump, even if he wins the presidency.HYUFD said:
If Trump is re elected there is a chance the GOP will retake the House as every seat is up, however the Democrats could also retake the Senate as the seats up there were last up in 2014, a bad Democratic yearnot_on_fire said:
There's no way the GOP will win the House backrcs1000 said:
Sure, but it would only take a couple of Republican Friends of Ireland to scupper a trade deal, even if the Republicans won the House back and the Presidency.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Friends of Ireland are now Democrats reflecting their dominance of Irish American heavy New York, Illinois and Massachussettsrcs1000 said:The Friends of Ireland congressional group is strong - maybe not as strong as the Israel lobby, but probably stronger than any other except possibly Taiwan. And while there may be more Democrats than Republicans in there, it is also pretty bipartisan. If the Friends of Ireland make a good case for opposing a trade deal, the irrespective of who's in the White House, I don't think it happens.
That being said, agriculture remains an almost insurmountable issue to any UK-US FTA.
(I would also point out that many of the things that we hate about the proposed EU deal will be required for a deal with the US - such as dynamic alignment, in their case around IP law - and a dispute resolution mechanism tilted towads the larger partner.)0 -
dodrade said:
In the interests of balance.LostPassword said:Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.dodrade said:
In the interests of balance.LostPassword said:Watched this on RTE tonight. Worth remembering that we needed the Americans to step in as neutral arbiters to help bring peace to Northern Ireland, because the British weren't trusted, and so they will always have an interest as a sponsor of the peace process. You would think that, with this sort of history, any British government would be extra careful not to do anything that remotely looked like a dick move in relation to Northern Ireland, but the vandals in charge have no sense of decency,
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/unquiet-graves-a-line-by-line-death-by-death-reminder-of-the-evil-of-the-troubles-1.4356640
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/crime/ex-ruc-officers-dismay-rte-platform-killers-belated-collusion-claims-2972631
Watching the documentary now, its directed by the son of an IRA prisoner so is about as "fair and balanced" on Northern Ireland as the Noraid supporting Peter King in the letter at the top of the thread.
Amazing how European and US politicians have been allowed unchallenged to lecture the UK the past four years on the Irish border by invoking provisions in the Good Friday Agreement that don't actually exist.
The article you cite is very interesting, and makes some very valid points. BUT you own argument AND "balance" much LESS persuasive.
You may be surprised that VERY few Americans have been worrying overmuch about the impact of Brexit on the Irish border. Why? Because we stupidly assumed that:
> whatever the Brexit outcome, both Brits & EU would come to a agreement on this out of mutual interest;
> which indeed they did - until BoJo decided to tear it up.
Never occurred to us that the nation that went to war over "a scrape of paper" in 1914 would repeat the Kaiser's perfidy in 2020.1 -
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.eek said:
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.WhisperingOracle said:
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.2 -
The absence of available testing for non-control surveillance group.RobD said:
So what is the absence?dixiedean said:
Perhaps that's where they are drawing the estimate from?RobD said:
The absence of testing remark seems odd. They are doing surveillance testing all the time.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Otherwise it's just plucking a figure out of the ether.
Thought that would have been obvious.
Or maybe you are still in the "world beating" laager?0 -
But Trump's Secretary of State, unlike the Democrats, accepts the UK government's argument that will not be the caseSouthamObserver said:It’s not just Biden. This is Trump’s trade representative in testimony to Congress recently:
https://twitter.com/jibbajabb/status/1303703528792358913?s=21
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1306267243978862594?s=200 -
I don't know but it doesn't strike me as implausible.Mexicanpete said:
In the grand scheme of things 38,000 is not an unreasonable, if top end assumption then?williamglenn said:
If the testing system is picking up 4000 I think it's vanishingly unlikely that the real number is only just over 5k. Remember that many cases will be asymptomatic or presymptomatic and people will be completely unaware they are carrying the virus.Stuartinromford said:
However, 38 000 is very high.williamglenn said:
The scepticism about how bad the current coronavirus situation is reminds me of how this all began when people mocked the idea we were x days behind Italy.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
The JoinZoe / KCL symptom tracker estimates 5300 (and rising) infections today. That passes the sniff test, since testing is picking up about 4000 infections a day.
The ONS survey estimates 3200 infections a day about 2 weeks ago (and rising)
So it would be surprising (and frankly terrifying) if we were at 38 000 infections a day already.
But to get from 5 000 to 40 000 is only three doublings- about 3 weeks as things stand right now.
Buckle up, everyone1 -
Oh, thank God - he's a member of 'Independent SAGE'.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
I was worried there for a moment.1 -
Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180222 -
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If these 'doommongers' are wrong they deserve to be sacked. If Johnson is wrong lots of people might die. You should be worried.BluestBlue said:
Oh, thank God - he's a member of 'Independent SAGE'.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
I was worried there for a moment.
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Raab about to be Tangoed?HYUFD said:5 -
I thought that was supposed to have already got fully underway as an end-to-end process between September 1-14, though, leading to a noticeable increase in hospitalisations already by now. Either I've got the prediction wrong, or there's governmental confusion.FrancisUrquhart said:
Because it was the youngsters returning from holiday that have overwhelmingly brought it back. It then take several weeks to move through them to the middle aged and older population, which then takes several weeks to start showing up in large hospital admission increases...which is what is now start to see the first glimpses of.WhisperingOracle said:
I'm very much not an expert, but something seems odd. As I remember the big increase in both deaths and hospitalisations was projected to have happened around two weeks after people returned from holiday. Outside some localised outbreaks in the north, are there actually increased hospitalisations or deaths definitely happening all over the country ? It doesn't seem so, or as such yet.rcs1000 said:
The problem is that we'll only see the 38,000 (if correct, and it is - of course - an estimate) in about three weeks time. And the time from infection to hospitalisation is probably even longer.WhisperingOracle said:
Do the trends for national numbers of hospitalisations and deaths support the case for a national lockdown yet ? I would find that a bit puzzling, but genuinely haven't seen the right figures, if not.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/13063517733561180220 -
"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.2
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We dropped eek twin b off last Wednesday. On Thursday there was a party in the flats attended by someone who had had a test of Thursday daytime. Last Friday we were told the test was positive so literally everyone in the block could be infected due to said person going to that party. Eek twin b thankfully wasn't at the party she had gone to the cinema (les miserables) and there was only 3 people in the screen so nothing to worry about there)Mexicanpete said:
I think you are letting him off the hook. It is not his health but his casual, cavalier approach to life...and death that concerns me.eek said:
Actually reading the article (I hadn't before) the things he wants Boris to do are the things that I think would actually completely screw Boris up.WhisperingOracle said:
An article heavy on the alternate reality. "His supporters know he has it in him to reach for the greatness...there must be no last-minute surrender, on Europe".eek said:
Given the paper this comment is from even the headline is interesting https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/16/boris-johnson-has-six-months-left-save-premiership/Mexicanpete said:
...and to the pub.williamglenn said:
It's a total shambles. Unbelievable that they were telling everyone it was their patriotic duty to get back in the office.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, there might be an even more urgent crisis coming, if this is even half-right:
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022
Johnson is in early bath territory if he calls for another two week lockdown. Two will become four, will become eight and so on. He just won't do it. Politically that is worse for him than another 60,000 fatalities, he has already got away with the first 60,000, so maybe no one will notice the second, so long as they can still go back to the pub and the office.
Boris really can't win from here and merely he still hasn't fully recovered from bring ill
His performance infront of Benn's committee today was punctuated by the most enormous whoppa, which he almost immediately acknowledged.
Johnson has personally assured us it is safe to go to work, to pubs, to restaurants, and our children to school and university. As someone who packed his son off to the University of South Wales in RCT on Sunday, only for the county borough to be locked down four days later, I have a dog in this race.0 -
They aren't - the staff capacity is there, the processing of test capacity isn'tFrancisUrquhart said:"in an absence of testing"...there isn't an absence, they are still doing 200k a day. It is demand exceeds this, but unlike March, with 200k tests per days and now historical data, the egghaads must be able to more accurate estimates.
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He'll be on about punishment beatings soon.williamglenn said:We're facing a second wave with a failing testing regime, and this is what Johnson is focused on:
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/13063517455436144700
