politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing sta
Comments
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We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.1 -
I almost never take notice of signs. They are very misleading.Pulpstar said:
Most of rural USA (Including upstate NY) leans GOP so interesting there's an equal number of Biden/Trump paraphenalia out there.Casino_Royale said:
That's interesting. I love the Bye Don sign.rpjs said:Anecdata alert: we just went up to the Catskills for a couple of nights’ break. We stayed off the main highways for a more scenic drive, and so we passed through a lot of the very rural, and so much more Republican-leaning parts of New York State. Here is our count of election yard signs / flags etc.
Biden: 1
Trump: 1
“Bye Don” (geddit.): 1
Trump flag but upside down: 1
No bumper stickers were seen at all.
The election yard signs etc were outnumbered by Black Lives Matters signs, and those were outnumbered by “Thank you essential workers” signs.
Yes, NYS will go heavily Democratic as a whole, but I was quite surprised to see such a small amount of overt Trump support in the countryside. That said, there were very few yard signs out in 2016, compared to 2012. I guess most people feel the polarizarion of views here in the US and don’t want to expose themselves one way or another.
There were only two houses signalling on BLM in my villages. They had their signs up for ages, but they all came down by the August BH weekend.
The NHS worshipping rainbows are still all over the place of course.
Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?)
Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
If I do, it's the new ones going up (rather than the old ones coming down) that I take interest in.
I knew something "weird" was going on in GE2017 when I saw far more Labour signs in Hampshire (well, a couple of dozen rather than virtually nill) in affluent areas that I'd never seen before.0 -
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing0
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Israel and Ireland truly both have special relationships with the USA out of proportion to their heft and weight. It's voting lobby stuff.rcs1000 said:
There is a big Irish vote in the US (hence, historically, Noraid). And the Irish lobby is also very well organised. And while the Democrats are worse, there are plenty of Republican members of the Friends of Ireland caucus too.DAlexander said:
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.Casino_Royale said:
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.HYUFD said:
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
We have the origins/founding fathers/heritage stuff but (a) they don't think we really need special treatment and (b) realpolitik still gives close US-UK relations a meaningful real-world value.0 -
Since the cases will be mostly backfills into the previous days, unless the testing is increasing exponentially as well it's safe to assume it's not a "more tests" effectAndy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.0 -
An election announcement isn't serious is it0
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Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
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Plausible?0 -
I (not very bravely) forecast that the average next week would be over 3k a day. Looks like it may well exceed 4k.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.1 -
Talk of a new political party on lockdownsceptic.co.uk to contest next year's locals with a specific anti-lockdown message.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.0 -
Well, one of the problems with No Deal - since ditching the May backstop - is the legal requirement for an Irish Sea border that Johnson promised wouldn't happen.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Now they can say that it wouldn't have happened except for the fact that the Lords voted down the Internal Markets Bill - so nothing to do with him, but all the fault of unelected quislings and traitors.
But we're jumping around scrabbling for a logical explanation for actions that are not internally consistent. It's a classic part of abusive behaviour. But our next chance to leave our abuser is not until 2024.1 -
0
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Mrs. May's Deal was better. We did actually cheery-pick: we got CU membership for free.rcs1000 said:
But here's the thing. And I wrote this on this board at the time.Philip_Thompson said:
Only if we stuck to EU rules, which we're not going to do.williamglenn said:
The point is that everyone would know that on January 1st, 2021, there would be no tariffs even without a trade deal. Johnson's deal just recreated the Article 50 cliff edge.Philip_Thompson said:
But we're not going to be following their regulations, don't you understand that? 🙄williamglenn said:
No we couldn't. If we walk away now, then there would be tariffs on exports from GB to the EU even if we follow all their regulations.Philip_Thompson said:
We wouldn't have had tariff free access if we walked away from our obligations, breached the treaty and diverged.williamglenn said:
It would have been more credible to walk away from the trade negotiations because the cliff edge would have been much smaller. We would have tariff-free trade in goods across the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
It would have been more credible to walk away from the entire backstop?williamglenn said:If Theresa May's deal had passed, the UK would have a much more credible walk-away position that would have avoided most of the issues created by Johnson's Irish Sea border.
Why?
If you mean we could walk away by refusing to diverge and sticking to their rules - yeah we could do that but that's not the point. We could do that today if we wanted to do so.
Under Theresa May's proposal how would we diverge our regulations and keep tariff free access?
Johnson's deal recreated the A50 cliff edge because we wanted the cliff edge there.
The EU didn't like Mrs May's backstop. Giving the UK unprecedented rights to access the CU/SM without payment was a situation it would be keen to avoid.
So, they were incentivized to find a deal rather than to allow the clock to run down.
In the case of Boris Johnsons Withdrawal Agreement, the shoe is on the other foot. It is the UK that is in the uncomfortable position if a deal is not reached.
As I said at the time, this worsened the UK's negotiating position.
What the UK government should say (assuming they believe it) is "we signed the Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that the EU was sincere in seeking a fair free trade agreement. Sadly, that assumption turned out to be incorrect, and we are therefore with regret walking away from it."
That's the grown up way to deal with this.
Yes, the CU we couldn't escape etc. And Geoffrey Cox probably killed it with his statement. But I think we could have got to smart digitisation of that inside 5-10 years which would have allowed tariff variation.
I was more comfortable with it than other Leavers as most of our economy is services and it protected our manufacturing base.1 -
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.0 -
What possible reason would Boris call a GE for?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1304430319504961536
What speculation?0 -
Didn't the Leadsome thing turn out to be down to a forgotten bot that just kept buying regardless?Casino_Royale said:
It's an Andrea Leadsom/ Marco Rubio thing.Alistair said:
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.Nigelb said:.
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.Richard_Nabavi said:
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.Peter_the_Punter said:
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.0 -
Very laudable, but forming a political party must be by some measure the least effective way of lobbying for political change there has ever been.rottenborough said:Talk of a new political party on lockdownsceptic.co.uk to contest next year's locals with a specific anti-lockdown message.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.0 -
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
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It will be a ragtag of ex-UKIPers and Brexit Party nutjobs - the ones that haven't realised they achieved a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party!rottenborough said:Talk of a new political party on lockdownsceptic.co.uk to contest next year's locals with a specific anti-lockdown message.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.0 -
Lords will do. They just need to delay the passage of the bill by one month and the Brexit clock will run out. Result for Cummings.Luckyguy1983 said:
Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?0 -
This may well be the plan, heads through the Commons, blocked in the Lords (Possibly SCOTUK) requires the useful idiocy Starmer seems to have swerved at PMQs.Luckyguy1983 said:
Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Independent Scotland (Good for Tories electorally)/Dissolution of SCOTUK/Peer stuffing the endgame rather than anything to do with the EU ?
Just seen your latest post - No Deal effectively engineered by Cummings by reverse psychology puppeteering the Lords...0 -
Oh come on, this is desperate stuff. Boris Johnson wrote a tacky article in a tacky newspaper (yes it was in The Sun, I'm afraid) opining that because Obama was black - sorry of Kenyan heritage - he probably had an "ancestral dislike" of the British Empire, explaining why he was less anglocentric than the average POTUS, and as further evidence of this theory offered the false story that he (Obama) had on his 1st day in office ordered the removal of the iconic bust of the Great Man Winnie from the White House. Google the article if you think I'm making any part of this up. Obama always got a free pass? I should coco.Luckyguy1983 said:
Thanks for that.nova said:
Here's the Johnson article. It starts off with him telling a story about the bust not just being "removed from The White House", but also that it was returned to the British Embassy.Luckyguy1983 said:
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.kinabalu said:
From the Indy -Luckyguy1983 said:
Citation needed.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/1139354/boris-johnson-uk-and-america-can-be-better-friends-than-ever-mr-obama-if-we-leave-the-eu/
It seems that's actually correct - it was sent back to the embassy, because Trump later asked them for it back:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2582745/donald-trump-has-asked-for-bust-of-winston-churchill-to-be-put-back-in-the-oval-office-after-obama-replaced-it-with-martin-luther-king/
And the Indy story is totally wrong about the story being 'false' - the statue that stayed in The White House was a different bust.
In other words, Obama sent the bust packing (don't get me wrong, I really don't care about his decor, and whilst I respect Churchill, I don't think the world should be required to kiss his arse), and he 'debunked' this totally true story by explaining that there was another bust of Churchill elsewhere in the White House, which he could have got rid of, but didn't.
I make that Bojo 1
Indy 0
Kinabula 00 -
So he didn't have to quit!FrancisUrquhart said:
What possible reason would Boris call a GE for?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1304430319504961536
What speculation?0 -
0
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Why would the FP rate suddenly jump up ?rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.1 -
Well over twice Italy’s and moving up toward three times Germany’s. It’ll be safer not to come home.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Meanwhile today we dropped by the field where Steve McQueen’s abortive motorcycle jump scene in the Great Escape was filmed. It’s actually by the Austrian border, not near Switzerland, so had he cleared that second fence he might have been in for an unpleasant surprise.
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On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by many including but not only the young are the biggest factors and that bad behaviour is not possible to prescribe1 -
This was incredibly brilliant by me:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2580600/#Comment_25806000 -
Irish vote would be my first instinct, which has a strong base in the Democratic Party.Grandiose said:
Who is she aiming for?Casino_Royale said:
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.HYUFD said:
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
I can't believe Americans love their leaders bashing Britain too much...
It might also be she equates Brexit/Trump so is projecting a bit of her hatred of the latter onto Brexit Britain as she sees the two things as two cheeks of the same arse.0 -
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe0 -
No.CorrectHorseBattery said:An election announcement isn't serious is it
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The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
Would you vote for more free money?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1304447417241210881
Labour is on the side of the public again
Hell yes.2 -
I am highly critical of Boris over his breach of an international treaty but on this there is a clear consensus across the media that the young are a substantial factor in this spread not BorisCorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe1 -
Did nothing?CorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
Funny we have so many people complaining the government has done too much and we have more tests going on than almost anywhere else in the world - and you think the country has done nothing?
What hasn't been done that you'd like?2 -
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe3 -
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.contrarian said:
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
I saw rumours about that, but never any evidence?Peter_the_Punter said:
Didn't the Leadsome thing turn out to be down to a forgotten bot that just kept buying regardless?Casino_Royale said:
It's an Andrea Leadsom/ Marco Rubio thing.Alistair said:
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.Nigelb said:.
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.Richard_Nabavi said:
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.Peter_the_Punter said:
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.0 -
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.0 -
The public is full of idiots, that is absolutely true - but Johnson is not blameless. He cocked up the advice after initially doing a good job.
I warned of arrogance a few weeks ago, we were starting to feel like the virus had gone, when it hadn't. I am afraid I am being proven correct.0 -
I think it's cock-up rather than conspiracy.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
To the extent there was design I think it might have been to do a bit of sabre-rattling with the EU and/or protect the UK from State Aid trojan-horses in the event of No Deal (which is the cock-up).0 -
Talk about after the horse has bolted.rottenborough said:Talk of a new political party on lockdownsceptic.co.uk to contest next year's locals with a specific anti-lockdown message.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.
If the elections are going ahead next year then the lockdown will have already finished.
This is online/Twitter circlejerk stuff, its never going to attract many votes.2 -
They have been telling people to live life as normal?CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.2 -
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.3 -
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.0
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He did.FrancisUrquhart said:
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.0 -
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I'd like to see this.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He did.FrancisUrquhart said:
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.2 -
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GE speculation lol0
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As I understand it they are upping the bar for a positive score to try to sift out false positives after Heneghan's criticisms. Is that correct?RobD said:
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.contrarian said:
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
It'll only be breached if a deal isn't ratified, as I understand it, so this seems completely pointless.Scott_xP said:1 -
We will see. On 1/1/21 we will either (i) be trading on WTO terms with the EU having failed to reach a deal or (ii) have signed an agreement that means continued close alignment.Philip_Thompson said:
You're as indefatigable as williamglenn.kinabalu said:
Why is my money on you misreading it?Philip_Thompson said:
Why?kinabalu said:
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".Philip_Thompson said:I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
Barnier and Frost could both hold press conferences saying that the talks have collapsed and that there will be no deal and you would still be saying that this means an extension.
I say (ii).0 -
I have been plenty critical of the government handling of this, but there is a huge difference from saying the pub or restaurants are open with specific conditions and saying live your life as normal.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He did.FrancisUrquhart said:
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
People have partied when they shouldn't, ignored the rules of social distancing, and they have gone on foreign holidays where rather than a quiet week in the sun, they have lived life to the max without any thought about risk and it has led to a rise. And this has happened across Europe.2 -
Why on earth would they want an election?0
-
I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.1
-
I don't know anything about that. Are you saying there have been changes to the ONS' methodology?contrarian said:
As I understand it they are upping the bar for a positive score to try to sift out false positives after Heneghan's criticisms. Is that correct?RobD said:
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.contrarian said:
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
The policy now is what we should have had when we came out of lockdown.Richard_Nabavi said:I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
0 -
Are you putting Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster in the same category otherwise your comment is ill conceivedCorrectHorseBattery said:The public is full of idiots, that is absolutely true - but Johnson is not blameless. He cocked up the advice after initially doing a good job.
I warned of arrogance a few weeks ago, we were starting to feel like the virus had gone, when it hadn't. I am afraid I am being proven correct.1 -
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.2 -
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.0 -
"We do nothing..."Richard_Nabavi said:
"Yup, it's another world-beater."
"No, we do no nothing until our heads have actually been cut-off."
"And then we.. spring into action, do we?"0 -
-
If we define "truth" quite generously. Which given who it is I'm not inclined to.OldKingCole said:
So, it would appear that this time Johnson was telling the truth. Given his track record on honesty and accuracy I think you two are entitled to celebrate.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes when it was discussed at the time it turned out there were two busts. Johnson was right, Kinabalu is wrong.Luckyguy1983 said:
Which it apparently was. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/churchill-bust-short-history-31121kinabalu said:
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."Luckyguy1983 said:
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.kinabalu said:
From the Indy -Luckyguy1983 said:
Citation needed.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Which it wasn't.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.0 -
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.0 -
Yes, I think that's right. Maybe with the Scottish/Welsh modification of excluding younger children from the six.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The policy now is what we should have had when we came out of lockdown.Richard_Nabavi said:I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
1 -
I simply cannot understand why Boris has done this for no apparent advantage rather than just declare the talks are over and no deal at the end of DecemberCasino_Royale said:
I think it's cock-up rather than conspiracy.FF43 said:Just thought of something.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
To the extent there was design I think it might have been to do a bit of sabre-rattling with the EU and/or protect the UK from State Aid trojan-horses in the event of No Deal (which is the cock-up).0 -
Prove it's the primary reason.Philip_Thompson said:
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem0 -
Nobody wants an election. A few said it this morning as a joke, I wonder if that's where it has come from.DAlexander said:Why on earth would they want an election?
0 -
Isn't that what the imperial study suggested, that the most significant rise is in the 18-24 age group?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Prove it's the primary reason.Philip_Thompson said:
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem4 -
Across Europe its the same pattern...CorrectHorseBattery said:
Prove it's the primary reason.Philip_Thompson said:
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/global-report-covid-19-spikes-across-europe-linked-to-young-people1 -
Presumably because someone has told him what a mess the border down the Irish Sea is going to be.Big_G_NorthWales said:I simply cannot understand why Boris has done this for no apparent advantage rather than just declare the talks are over and no deal at the end of December
We just have to hope that someone also gets round to telling him what a mess the Dover crossing is going to be...2 -
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.7 -
The median vote last parliament (excepting the opportunistic voter-downers) was for customs union membership plus a 2nd ref.
Basically, putting May's Deal to a vote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-477283330 -
Well said.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.0 -
The data show that the young are the ones catching and spreading the virus currently. That's not a blame thing, its scientific data. And its data coming up right across Europe.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Prove it's the primary reason.Philip_Thompson said:
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/how-europe-is-tackling-spread-of-covid-19-with-appeal-to-young-people
And you still seem to be misunderstanding what I said about the young voting Tory. I said the government is working to win the votes of the young in the future as they get older - not that they are voting Tory in the present. Nobody is voting in the present since there is no election in the present.1 -
To get Brexit done!FrancisUrquhart said:
What possible reason would Boris call a GE for?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1304430319504961536
What speculation?2 -
Funny, they wanted the young to get back to the office just last week, now they're to blame for everything.
This is the Tory way in a nutshell, never the fault of anyone over 500 -
https://twitter.com/garvanwalshe/status/1304364969425764353FrancisUrquhart said:
What possible reason would Boris call a GE for?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1304430319504961536
What speculation?0 -
You are now being silly.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Prove it's the primary reason.Philip_Thompson said:
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.Philip_Thompson said:
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.CorrectHorseBattery said:
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and partyBig_G_NorthWales said:
On this you are incorrect HorseCorrectHorseBattery said:We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
It is the experts who are saying this from the analysis of the data
2 -
No I read that some testing is picking up dead virus from months ago and calling that a positive.RobD said:
I don't know anything about that. Are you saying there have been changes to the ONS' methodology?contrarian said:
As I understand it they are upping the bar for a positive score to try to sift out false positives after Heneghan's criticisms. Is that correct?RobD said:
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.contrarian said:
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Well said, Contrarian.0 -
And, the fact the people at the top of Government take no notice of the rules whatsoever hasn't been missed either.Richard_Nabavi said:I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
2 -
Covid cases are clearly rising, but I worry about the accuracy of the data. Unless I'm missing something, we have no idea about the number of people being tested, just the number of tests. Worldometer says we have had over 19 million tests in the UK - that would be around 30% of the population, if it was people, rather than tests. But the number of people tested is way below that - 5%? 10%? I've no idea - has anybody? I understand some other countries are recording people tested, rather than number of tests.
I also suspect that the Covid death rate is now being underestimated due to the 28-day cut off. My understanding is that quite a lot of deaths take longer than 28 days from the initial Covid diagnosis.
The UK Statistics Authority has gone very quiet since it raised concerns about government (mis)use of data back in April. I wouldn't be surprised if it has been muzzled.0 -
Ah, okay. I am not sure that would cause a sudden shift in the prevalence rate in the ONS's study over the course of a week. That would be a more gradual shift as more people move into the "has had it" category.contrarian said:
No I read that some testing is picking up dead virus from months ago and calling that a positive.RobD said:
I don't know anything about that. Are you saying there have been changes to the ONS' methodology?contrarian said:
As I understand it they are upping the bar for a positive score to try to sift out false positives after Heneghan's criticisms. Is that correct?RobD said:
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.contrarian said:
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??Malmesbury said:
Positivity rate data here -rottenborough said:
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.Andy_JS said:
We need to know by how much testing has increased.FrancisUrquhart said:People tested positive 3,539...
Up up and away.
Have I got that right?0 -
Nice to have you on side Stocky.Stocky said:
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Well said, Contrarian.1 -
Young people including myself have had an absolutely rotten deal since 2010 (and even before).
You simultaneously want us to back to work and stimulate the economy and then also blame us for the problems in the country.
Today's COVID blame is yesterday's attacks on young people for eating too many avocados.0 -
Nobody is "blaming" the young.CorrectHorseBattery said:Funny, they wanted the young to get back to the office just last week, now they're to blame for everything.
This is the Tory way in a nutshell, never the fault of anyone over 50
Blame is such a perjorative term.
The data says that the young are spreading the virus - in order to deal with this we need to know what's happening and react to it, not put our heads in the sand or cast blame. Its not a blame issue, it is just an issue of knowing the facts.2 -
If there's not a deal to ratify, it won't matter. If there is a deal to ratify, why on earth would they not ratify it given it would render the whole thing moot?Barnesian said:1 -
If any young person wishes to swap I'd be up for it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Nice to have you on side Stocky.Stocky said:
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Well said, Contrarian.3 -
Precisely. This is empty virtue signalling. It is entirely moot.RobD said:
If there's not a deal to ratify, it won't matter. If there is a deal to ratify, why on earth would they not ratify it given it would render the whole thing moot?Barnesian said:0 -
I don't know what Boris is up to but I am as confident as I can be there won't be an early election due to:
1) Having one 6 months ago
2) The polls showing the Cons would lose seats
3) The new MPs not yet having a chance to build up incumbancy
4) No boundary changes
5) A looming COVID 2nd wave (we're still not even having local by-elections)0 -
Oh yes - the things I`d do differently if I had my time again!Omnium said:
If any young person wishes to swap I'd be up for it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Nice to have you on side Stocky.Stocky said:
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Well said, Contrarian.1 -
It's not that bad. They can still have sex, as long as it's not in groups of more than six.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.3 -
We're advised to wear masks nowRichard_Nabavi said:
It's not that bad. They can still have sex, as long as it's not in groups of more than six.contrarian said:
Right now young peopleCorrectHorseBattery said:Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.0
