Anecdata alert: we just went up to the Catskills for a couple of nights’ break. We stayed off the main highways for a more scenic drive, and so we passed through a lot of the very rural, and so much more Republican-leaning parts of New York State. Here is our count of election yard signs / flags etc.
Biden: 1 Trump: 1 “Bye Don” (geddit.): 1 Trump flag but upside down: 1 No bumper stickers were seen at all.
The election yard signs etc were outnumbered by Black Lives Matters signs, and those were outnumbered by “Thank you essential workers” signs.
Yes, NYS will go heavily Democratic as a whole, but I was quite surprised to see such a small amount of overt Trump support in the countryside. That said, there were very few yard signs out in 2016, compared to 2012. I guess most people feel the polarizarion of views here in the US and don’t want to expose themselves one way or another.
That's interesting. I love the Bye Don sign.
There were only two houses signalling on BLM in my villages. They had their signs up for ages, but they all came down by the August BH weekend.
The NHS worshipping rainbows are still all over the place of course.
Most of rural USA (Including upstate NY) leans GOP so interesting there's an equal number of Biden/Trump paraphenalia out there.
Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?) Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
I almost never take notice of signs. They are very misleading.
If I do, it's the new ones going up (rather than the old ones coming down) that I take interest in.
I knew something "weird" was going on in GE2017 when I saw far more Labour signs in Hampshire (well, a couple of dozen rather than virtually nill) in affluent areas that I'd never seen before.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
There is a big Irish vote in the US (hence, historically, Noraid). And the Irish lobby is also very well organised. And while the Democrats are worse, there are plenty of Republican members of the Friends of Ireland caucus too.
Israel and Ireland truly both have special relationships with the USA out of proportion to their heft and weight. It's voting lobby stuff.
We have the origins/founding fathers/heritage stuff but (a) they don't think we really need special treatment and (b) realpolitik still gives close US-UK relations a meaningful real-world value.
We need to know by how much testing has increased.
Since the cases will be mostly backfills into the previous days, unless the testing is increasing exponentially as well it's safe to assume it's not a "more tests" effect
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Well, one of the problems with No Deal - since ditching the May backstop - is the legal requirement for an Irish Sea border that Johnson promised wouldn't happen.
Now they can say that it wouldn't have happened except for the fact that the Lords voted down the Internal Markets Bill - so nothing to do with him, but all the fault of unelected quislings and traitors.
But we're jumping around scrabbling for a logical explanation for actions that are not internally consistent. It's a classic part of abusive behaviour. But our next chance to leave our abuser is not until 2024.
If Theresa May's deal had passed, the UK would have a much more credible walk-away position that would have avoided most of the issues created by Johnson's Irish Sea border.
It would have been more credible to walk away from the entire backstop?
Why?
It would have been more credible to walk away from the trade negotiations because the cliff edge would have been much smaller. We would have tariff-free trade in goods across the UK.
We wouldn't have had tariff free access if we walked away from our obligations, breached the treaty and diverged.
If you mean we could walk away by refusing to diverge and sticking to their rules - yeah we could do that but that's not the point. We could do that today if we wanted to do so.
No we couldn't. If we walk away now, then there would be tariffs on exports from GB to the EU even if we follow all their regulations.
But we're not going to be following their regulations, don't you understand that? 🙄
Under Theresa May's proposal how would we diverge our regulations and keep tariff free access?
The point is that everyone would know that on January 1st, 2021, there would be no tariffs even without a trade deal. Johnson's deal just recreated the Article 50 cliff edge.
Only if we stuck to EU rules, which we're not going to do.
Johnson's deal recreated the A50 cliff edge because we wanted the cliff edge there.
But here's the thing. And I wrote this on this board at the time.
The EU didn't like Mrs May's backstop. Giving the UK unprecedented rights to access the CU/SM without payment was a situation it would be keen to avoid.
So, they were incentivized to find a deal rather than to allow the clock to run down.
In the case of Boris Johnsons Withdrawal Agreement, the shoe is on the other foot. It is the UK that is in the uncomfortable position if a deal is not reached.
As I said at the time, this worsened the UK's negotiating position.
What the UK government should say (assuming they believe it) is "we signed the Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that the EU was sincere in seeking a fair free trade agreement. Sadly, that assumption turned out to be incorrect, and we are therefore with regret walking away from it."
That's the grown up way to deal with this.
Mrs. May's Deal was better. We did actually cheery-pick: we got CU membership for free.
Yes, the CU we couldn't escape etc. And Geoffrey Cox probably killed it with his statement. But I think we could have got to smart digitisation of that inside 5-10 years which would have allowed tariff variation.
I was more comfortable with it than other Leavers as most of our economy is services and it protected our manufacturing base.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.
It's an Andrea Leadsom/ Marco Rubio thing.
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.
Didn't the Leadsome thing turn out to be down to a forgotten bot that just kept buying regardless?
Talk of a new political party on lockdownsceptic.co.uk to contest next year's locals with a specific anti-lockdown message.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.
It will be a ragtag of ex-UKIPers and Brexit Party nutjobs - the ones that haven't realised they achieved a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party!
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.
Lords will do. They just need to delay the passage of the bill by one month and the Brexit clock will run out. Result for Cummings.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
Are you suggesting it gets voted down in the Commons or the Lords? The former is a tall order.
This may well be the plan, heads through the Commons, blocked in the Lords (Possibly SCOTUK) requires the useful idiocy Starmer seems to have swerved at PMQs. Independent Scotland (Good for Tories electorally)/Dissolution of SCOTUK/Peer stuffing the endgame rather than anything to do with the EU ? Just seen your latest post - No Deal effectively engineered by Cummings by reverse psychology puppeteering the Lords...
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
Here's the Johnson article. It starts off with him telling a story about the bust not just being "removed from The White House", but also that it was returned to the British Embassy.
And the Indy story is totally wrong about the story being 'false' - the statue that stayed in The White House was a different bust.
In other words, Obama sent the bust packing (don't get me wrong, I really don't care about his decor, and whilst I respect Churchill, I don't think the world should be required to kiss his arse), and he 'debunked' this totally true story by explaining that there was another bust of Churchill elsewhere in the White House, which he could have got rid of, but didn't.
I make that Bojo 1 Indy 0 Kinabula 0
Oh come on, this is desperate stuff. Boris Johnson wrote a tacky article in a tacky newspaper (yes it was in The Sun, I'm afraid) opining that because Obama was black - sorry of Kenyan heritage - he probably had an "ancestral dislike" of the British Empire, explaining why he was less anglocentric than the average POTUS, and as further evidence of this theory offered the false story that he (Obama) had on his 1st day in office ordered the removal of the iconic bust of the Great Man Winnie from the White House. Google the article if you think I'm making any part of this up. Obama always got a free pass? I should coco.
Well over twice Italy’s and moving up toward three times Germany’s. It’ll be safer not to come home.
Meanwhile today we dropped by the field where Steve McQueen’s abortive motorcycle jump scene in the Great Escape was filmed. It’s actually by the Austrian border, not near Switzerland, so had he cleared that second fence he might have been in for an unpleasant surprise.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by many including but not only the young are the biggest factors and that bad behaviour is not possible to prescribe
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Who is she aiming for?
I can't believe Americans love their leaders bashing Britain too much...
Irish vote would be my first instinct, which has a strong base in the Democratic Party.
It might also be she equates Brexit/Trump so is projecting a bit of her hatred of the latter onto Brexit Britain as she sees the two things as two cheeks of the same arse.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
I am highly critical of Boris over his breach of an international treaty but on this there is a clear consensus across the media that the young are a substantial factor in this spread not Boris
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
Did nothing?
Funny we have so many people complaining the government has done too much and we have more tests going on than almost anywhere else in the world - and you think the country has done nothing?
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.
It's an Andrea Leadsom/ Marco Rubio thing.
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.
Didn't the Leadsome thing turn out to be down to a forgotten bot that just kept buying regardless?
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
I think it's cock-up rather than conspiracy.
To the extent there was design I think it might have been to do a bit of sabre-rattling with the EU and/or protect the UK from State Aid trojan-horses in the event of No Deal (which is the cock-up).
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
They have been telling people to live life as normal?
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Why is my money on you misreading it?
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
You're as indefatigable as williamglenn.
Barnier and Frost could both hold press conferences saying that the talks have collapsed and that there will be no deal and you would still be saying that this means an extension.
We will see. On 1/1/21 we will either (i) be trading on WTO terms with the EU having failed to reach a deal or (ii) have signed an agreement that means continued close alignment.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
Again, no he didn't say live you life as normal at all.
He did.
I have been plenty critical of the government handling of this, but there is a huge difference from saying the pub or restaurants are open with specific conditions and saying live your life as normal.
People have partied when they shouldn't, ignored the rules of social distancing, and they have gone on foreign holidays where rather than a quiet week in the sun, they have lived life to the max without any thought about risk and it has led to a rise. And this has happened across Europe.
I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
The policy now is what we should have had when we came out of lockdown.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Yes when it was discussed at the time it turned out there were two busts. Johnson was right, Kinabalu is wrong.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.
So, it would appear that this time Johnson was telling the truth. Given his track record on honesty and accuracy I think you two are entitled to celebrate.
If we define "truth" quite generously. Which given who it is I'm not inclined to.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
The policy now is what we should have had when we came out of lockdown.
Yes, I think that's right. Maybe with the Scottish/Welsh modification of excluding younger children from the six.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?
I think it's cock-up rather than conspiracy.
To the extent there was design I think it might have been to do a bit of sabre-rattling with the EU and/or protect the UK from State Aid trojan-horses in the event of No Deal (which is the cock-up).
I simply cannot understand why Boris has done this for no apparent advantage rather than just declare the talks are over and no deal at the end of December
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Prove it's the primary reason.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Prove it's the primary reason.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
Isn't that what the imperial study suggested, that the most significant rise is in the 18-24 age group?
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Prove it's the primary reason.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
I simply cannot understand why Boris has done this for no apparent advantage rather than just declare the talks are over and no deal at the end of December
Presumably because someone has told him what a mess the border down the Irish Sea is going to be.
We just have to hope that someone also gets round to telling him what a mess the Dover crossing is going to be...
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Prove it's the primary reason.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
The data show that the young are the ones catching and spreading the virus currently. That's not a blame thing, its scientific data. And its data coming up right across Europe.
And you still seem to be misunderstanding what I said about the young voting Tory. I said the government is working to win the votes of the young in the future as they get older - not that they are voting Tory in the present. Nobody is voting in the present since there is no election in the present.
We are headed into a second wave due to this Government's incompetence. Yet again we had foresight of other countries and we did nothing
On this you are incorrect Horse
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by any including but not only the young are the biggest factors and there is behaviour is not possible to prescribe
Blame the young time, Johnson told them to go out and party
No he didn't. The police have spent all summer trying to close down parties and raves.
He told us to all go back to the pub and live our lives as normal.
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
To go to the pub in a covid-secure manner, not to go to raves and house parties which is what is causing the spread.
That is not the only cause of the spread. The young cannot be held 100% responsible.
Not 100% but primarily responsible absolutely.
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Prove it's the primary reason.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
You are now being silly.
It is the experts who are saying this from the analysis of the data
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.
I think the problems with the 'rule of six' announcement aren't really much to do with the policy itself; it seems very reasonable, and is simpler, more logical, and clearer than what we had before. The problems are (a) that the government has lost so much authority by repeatedly changing the rules and by inconsistent messaging, and (b) that people are unsurprisingly fed up with the whole business.
And, the fact the people at the top of Government take no notice of the rules whatsoever hasn't been missed either.
Covid cases are clearly rising, but I worry about the accuracy of the data. Unless I'm missing something, we have no idea about the number of people being tested, just the number of tests. Worldometer says we have had over 19 million tests in the UK - that would be around 30% of the population, if it was people, rather than tests. But the number of people tested is way below that - 5%? 10%? I've no idea - has anybody? I understand some other countries are recording people tested, rather than number of tests.
I also suspect that the Covid death rate is now being underestimated due to the 28-day cut off. My understanding is that quite a lot of deaths take longer than 28 days from the initial Covid diagnosis.
The UK Statistics Authority has gone very quiet since it raised concerns about government (mis)use of data back in April. I wouldn't be surprised if it has been muzzled.
We need to know by how much testing has increased.
And how many of these tests are still using the number of cycles that means it is easy to get false positives according to Henegan.
Positivity rate data here -
The positivity rate is very low right now so they must be doing huge numbers of tests to dredge up 3,500 new positive cases??
Have I got that right?
That's right, but the ONS' random sampling is now also showing a significant increase in the rate.
As I understand it they are upping the bar for a positive score to try to sift out false positives after Heneghan's criticisms. Is that correct?
I don't know anything about that. Are you saying there have been changes to the ONS' methodology?
No I read that some testing is picking up dead virus from months ago and calling that a positive.
Ah, okay. I am not sure that would cause a sudden shift in the prevalence rate in the ONS's study over the course of a week. That would be a more gradual shift as more people move into the "has had it" category.
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.
Funny, they wanted the young to get back to the office just last week, now they're to blame for everything.
This is the Tory way in a nutshell, never the fault of anyone over 50
Nobody is "blaming" the young.
Blame is such a perjorative term.
The data says that the young are spreading the virus - in order to deal with this we need to know what's happening and react to it, not put our heads in the sand or cast blame. Its not a blame issue, it is just an issue of knowing the facts.
It'll only be breached if a deal isn't ratified, as I understand it, so this seems completely pointless.
... or threaten to breach..
If there's not a deal to ratify, it won't matter. If there is a deal to ratify, why on earth would they not ratify it given it would render the whole thing moot?
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.
Well said, Contrarian.
Nice to have you on side Stocky.
If any young person wishes to swap I'd be up for it.
It'll only be breached if a deal isn't ratified, as I understand it, so this seems completely pointless.
... or threaten to breach..
If there's not a deal to ratify, it won't matter. If there is a deal to ratify, why on earth would they not ratify it given it would render the whole thing moot?
Precisely. This is empty virtue signalling. It is entirely moot.
I don't know what Boris is up to but I am as confident as I can be there won't be an early election due to:
1) Having one 6 months ago 2) The polls showing the Cons would lose seats 3) The new MPs not yet having a chance to build up incumbancy 4) No boundary changes 5) A looming COVID 2nd wave (we're still not even having local by-elections)
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Nice one. I, for one, wouldn`t dream of denying them some hedonism in their shite lives and wouldn`t blame them, or anyone else for that matter, for giving me the virus because my health is my responsibility not anyone else`s.
Well said, Contrarian.
Nice to have you on side Stocky.
If any young person wishes to swap I'd be up for it.
Oh yes - the things I`d do differently if I had my time again!
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
It's not that bad. They can still have sex, as long as it's not in groups of more than six.
Blame the young is always the easy way out. Cowards.
Right now young people
cannot travel cannot associate in groups cannot afford to buy houses have big personal debts if they went to university Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly Will soon experience mass unemployment Missed a whole term of education Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
It's not that bad. They can still have sex, as long as it's not in groups of more than six.
Comments
If I do, it's the new ones going up (rather than the old ones coming down) that I take interest in.
I knew something "weird" was going on in GE2017 when I saw far more Labour signs in Hampshire (well, a couple of dozen rather than virtually nill) in affluent areas that I'd never seen before.
We have the origins/founding fathers/heritage stuff but (a) they don't think we really need special treatment and (b) realpolitik still gives close US-UK relations a meaningful real-world value.
Probably come to nothing, but there is such a party in Germany being set up apparently.
Now they can say that it wouldn't have happened except for the fact that the Lords voted down the Internal Markets Bill - so nothing to do with him, but all the fault of unelected quislings and traitors.
But we're jumping around scrabbling for a logical explanation for actions that are not internally consistent. It's a classic part of abusive behaviour. But our next chance to leave our abuser is not until 2024.
What speculation?
Yes, the CU we couldn't escape etc. And Geoffrey Cox probably killed it with his statement. But I think we could have got to smart digitisation of that inside 5-10 years which would have allowed tariff variation.
I was more comfortable with it than other Leavers as most of our economy is services and it protected our manufacturing base.
Independent Scotland (Good for Tories electorally)/Dissolution of SCOTUK/Peer stuffing the endgame rather than anything to do with the EU ?
Just seen your latest post - No Deal effectively engineered by Cummings by reverse psychology puppeteering the Lords...
Labour is on the side of the public again
Meanwhile today we dropped by the field where Steve McQueen’s abortive motorcycle jump scene in the Great Escape was filmed. It’s actually by the Austrian border, not near Switzerland, so had he cleared that second fence he might have been in for an unpleasant surprise.
If we are heading into a second wave this is consistent with the rest of Europe and all four nations have been taking similar action to mitigate the spread but it is clear that selfish and defiant behaviour by many including but not only the young are the biggest factors and that bad behaviour is not possible to prescribe
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2580600/#Comment_2580600
It might also be she equates Brexit/Trump so is projecting a bit of her hatred of the latter onto Brexit Britain as she sees the two things as two cheeks of the same arse.
Have I got that right?
Hell yes.
Funny we have so many people complaining the government has done too much and we have more tests going on than almost anywhere else in the world - and you think the country has done nothing?
What hasn't been done that you'd like?
The young are absolutely culpable but they cannot be held responsible for Government advice they were given.
I warned of arrogance a few weeks ago, we were starting to feel like the virus had gone, when it hadn't. I am afraid I am being proven correct.
To the extent there was design I think it might have been to do a bit of sabre-rattling with the EU and/or protect the UK from State Aid trojan-horses in the event of No Deal (which is the cock-up).
If the elections are going ahead next year then the lockdown will have already finished.
This is online/Twitter circlejerk stuff, its never going to attract many votes.
I say (ii).
People have partied when they shouldn't, ignored the rules of social distancing, and they have gone on foreign holidays where rather than a quiet week in the sun, they have lived life to the max without any thought about risk and it has led to a rise. And this has happened across Europe.
"Yup, it's another world-beater."
"No, we do no nothing until our heads have actually been cut-off."
"And then we.. spring into action, do we?"
And that's just a matter of fact not judgement.
Remember when you said the other day about the young voting Tory, this is the kind of thing I meant when you blame them for every problem
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/global-report-covid-19-spikes-across-europe-linked-to-young-people
We just have to hope that someone also gets round to telling him what a mess the Dover crossing is going to be...
cannot travel
cannot associate in groups
cannot afford to buy houses
have big personal debts if they went to university
Will inherit an enormous debt mountain from the boomers
Pay then highest taxes in 50 years to fund the care of the elderly
Will soon experience mass unemployment
Missed a whole term of education
Are having their development affected by mask wearing and other mentally traumatic events
Its a dreadful, dreadful situation and anybody blaming them for their fantastic compliance and fortitude in this period is a c8nt.
Basically, putting May's Deal to a vote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47728333
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/how-europe-is-tackling-spread-of-covid-19-with-appeal-to-young-people
And you still seem to be misunderstanding what I said about the young voting Tory. I said the government is working to win the votes of the young in the future as they get older - not that they are voting Tory in the present. Nobody is voting in the present since there is no election in the present.
This is the Tory way in a nutshell, never the fault of anyone over 50
It is the experts who are saying this from the analysis of the data
Well said, Contrarian.
I also suspect that the Covid death rate is now being underestimated due to the 28-day cut off. My understanding is that quite a lot of deaths take longer than 28 days from the initial Covid diagnosis.
The UK Statistics Authority has gone very quiet since it raised concerns about government (mis)use of data back in April. I wouldn't be surprised if it has been muzzled.
You simultaneously want us to back to work and stimulate the economy and then also blame us for the problems in the country.
Today's COVID blame is yesterday's attacks on young people for eating too many avocados.
Blame is such a perjorative term.
The data says that the young are spreading the virus - in order to deal with this we need to know what's happening and react to it, not put our heads in the sand or cast blame. Its not a blame issue, it is just an issue of knowing the facts.
1) Having one 6 months ago
2) The polls showing the Cons would lose seats
3) The new MPs not yet having a chance to build up incumbancy
4) No boundary changes
5) A looming COVID 2nd wave (we're still not even having local by-elections)