I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
There is a big Irish vote in the US (hence, historically, Noraid). And the Irish lobby is also very well organised. And while the Democrats are worse, there are plenty of Republican members of the Friends of Ireland caucus too.
If Theresa May's deal had passed, the UK would have a much more credible walk-away position that would have avoided most of the issues created by Johnson's Irish Sea border.
It would have been more credible to walk away from the entire backstop?
Why?
It would have been more credible to walk away from the trade negotiations because the cliff edge would have been much smaller. We would have tariff-free trade in goods across the UK.
We wouldn't have had tariff free access if we walked away from our obligations, breached the treaty and diverged.
If you mean we could walk away by refusing to diverge and sticking to their rules - yeah we could do that but that's not the point. We could do that today if we wanted to do so.
No we couldn't. If we walk away now, then there would be tariffs on exports from GB to the EU even if we follow all their regulations.
But we're not going to be following their regulations, don't you understand that? 🙄
Under Theresa May's proposal how would we diverge our regulations and keep tariff free access?
The point is that everyone would know that on January 1st, 2021, there would be no tariffs even without a trade deal. Johnson's deal just recreated the Article 50 cliff edge.
Only if we stuck to EU rules, which we're not going to do.
Johnson's deal recreated the A50 cliff edge because we wanted the cliff edge there.
But here's the thing. And I wrote this on this board at the time.
The EU didn't like Mrs May's backstop. Giving the UK unprecedented rights to access the CU/SM without payment was a situation it would be keen to avoid.
So, they were incentivized to find a deal rather than to allow the clock to run down.
In the case of Boris Johnsons Withdrawal Agreement, the shoe is on the other foot. It is the UK that is in the uncomfortable position if a deal is not reached.
As I said at the time, this worsened the UK's negotiating position.
What the UK government should say (assuming they believe it) is "we signed the Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that the EU was sincere in seeking a fair free trade agreement. Sadly, that assumption turned out to be incorrect, and we are therefore with regret walking away from it."
That's the grown up way to deal with this.
Then, what?
Oh, that's not a great outcome either. But at least it's honest and grown up, and doesn't contravene a bunch of other treaties we've signed.
I don't think so. International law is just as much breached if it's the whole thing and not just part of it. The EU will be even more outraged because there will be absolutely no way back. If it's at the edges there can be some papering over/fudge etc. The effect on the Northern Ireland situation is now total whereas it is still somewhat protected by most of the protocol still remaining. The other issues to do with America etc still apply.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
We know more than we did in early 2020, and full national lockdown will be avoided. The aim is to keep as much going as possible, while restricting spread. I am yet to be convinced that the virus is out of control again. Undoubtedly we are testing vastly more than in feb/march. Others have suggested that the test we are using (PCR) is great for confirming cause in sick people, but less good for population based surveys, from the false positives, and also currently a lack of standardisation of how much virus is detected in the PCR assay. Are all positives a concern? Should there be a cut off, and should the number of cycles needed to obtain the result be reported? We have many mitigations in place - be they facemasks, social distancing, contact tracing, safe(r) workplaces that were not in place in March. I know people are fed-up of this, and want it over, but a little more patience is needed. Vaccines will come (even if not fully effective). Probably not before Christmas 2020, but hopefully by the early new year/spring of 2021.
The virus is out of control in Spain and France, and, arguably, in many other parts of Europe - Czech Republic, Austria, Romania, the Netherlands, and so on.
Sadly, I see no reason why Britain will not follow these nearby examples, just as we followed Spain, Italy and France in the first wave. We are about two-three weeks behind.
I hope I am wrong.
Again - we are at a different stage (by we, I include Spain and France etc). We are all testing way more. The hospitals are not overflowing and exceeding capacity. I accept that this a lagging indicator, but as about, the rate increase in the UK is mainly among the young, who won't get severely ill, won't need to go to hospital and so on.
Deaths and hospitalisations are, now, slowly ticking up again in Spain and France. Clearly nowhere near as bad as the spring, but we are only in september. Once the normal flu season kicks in AS WELL, and the weather seriously worsens - driving everyone indoors - then, depressingly, I can see European governments closing down all the pubs and restaurants once more, and so on, and so forth.
It's potentially going to be the most depressing winter since, ooh, 1917?
I wonder if you'd been born in the mediterranean, LadySean, you'd be more of an optimist. My greek and italian friends are seeing things very differently, so far - and I personally think they may be right.
I've just come back from Greece. My impression was quite different - and I talked to a lot of people (admittedly mainly in the travel industry). Most were pessimistic, some were in despair.
One other thing I noted was how pleased they were to see Brits. I heard that on multiple occasions. They want us to return, in numbers.
For the money, even if they have to clean the pavements every night.
Of course, but it is still nice to be eagerly welcomed. It happened too often to be coincidence.
"Oh, it's lovely to hear British accents again"
"Ah, so nice to see British money!"
"We really miss the English!"
Heard versions of this everywhere.
The Greeks in the tourist industry on the islands tend to try and understand this as the British being almost two separate tribes, or jekyll and hyde - hooligans, and on the other side more polite than many of their other guests. I remember someone at a taverna in Tilos saying he never knew if he was going to get one of those "pirates, spitting, or one of the gentlemen with their exquisite manners".
There were only one or two doing it at the NFL last night.
I am not sure about this "black" national anthem thing, and the Texans not coming out for either was terrible (apparently the Dolphins have already said they won't at the weekend), but thought the Chiefs approach to stand respectfully for the music then link arms with the other team for a few seconds was a decent compromise.
One of the most ridiculous bits of knee-ism I have seen is a rugby player refused to kneel and got loads of criticism....the rugby media then had to explain that he actually had an adopted black son.
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
What a hero.
You did say it at the time and I wasn't sure about it then because I think any government which sees neighbouring European countries' health services overwhelmed can be cut some slack for panicking.
The BBC will only report criticism that they agree with.
I'm sure there's plenty of criticism of being forced to take the knee for months and the BLM movement in general they could report on, but that won't ever make their website.
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
What a hero.
Yes, I reckon the lockdown and subsequent withdrawal of freedoms will be the end of Boris' Tories, to be replaced by a party who would have done the same, or worse
It could open the door for a party who chances their arm at being lockdown sceptic though
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
There were only one or two doing it at the NFL last night.
I am not sure about this "black" national anthem thing, and the Texans not coming out for either was terrible (apparently the Dolphins have already said they won't at the weekend), but thought the Chiefs approach to stand respectfully for the music then link arms with the other team for a few seconds was a decent compromise.
One of the most ridiculous bits of knee-ism I have seen is a rugby player refused to kneel and got loads of criticism....the rugby media then had to explain that he actually had an adopted black son.
Oh, I didn't realize that the Texans didn't come out for it. Not good.
"“We will do everything we can to avoid a lockdown like the one we did on March 11,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Thursday, in comments broadcast by TV2. “It was the right thing to do back then. It wouldn’t be the right thing to do again.”
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
What a hero.
You did say it at the time and I wasn't sure about it then because I think any government which sees neighbouring European countries' health services overwhelmed can be cut some slack for panicking.
Now, not so much.
My local hospital, southern Alicante has kept functioning throughout for life threatening treatments, from referral through consultant, tests and treatment. I doubt anyone is getting a new hip as quickly as before though.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Obama got a free pass over here? Hardly. He got a roasting for his "back of the queue" comments. And as for his general attitude no less a person than our current PM lambasted him for being insufficiently anglocentric and offered the explanation that it was because he was black.
There were only one or two doing it at the NFL last night.
I am not sure about this "black" national anthem thing, and the Texans not coming out for either was terrible (apparently the Dolphins have already said they won't at the weekend), but thought the Chiefs approach to stand respectfully for the music then link arms with the other team for a few seconds was a decent compromise.
One of the most ridiculous bits of knee-ism I have seen is a rugby player refused to kneel and got loads of criticism....the rugby media then had to explain that he actually had an adopted black son.
Oh, I didn't realize that the Texans didn't come out for it. Not good.
They claim some BS about not wanting to be seen to supporting one anthem and not the other (without saying which they did / didn't). And the crowd then boo'ed when they came out and linked arms. Which then has caused more division.
They really should just play the national anthem. If individuals want to knee, they can. Then the linked arms thing seems like something that has none perception of disrespect or servitude. IMO, arm and arm is a much better way of showing the racists that they are together as one.
That been said none of this is as bad as the NBA, with players replacing their name tags with "social justice slogans".
1. It's not the case that 538 is more bullish on Trump than the Economist on average: the medians of the two distributions are almost identical, and 538 actually has a slightly higher expected value (i.e. the sum of the probabilities for each ECV value times each ECV value). As I said in my article of a couple of days ago, the difference is only that the 538 model is flatter and so pulls more probability into the Trump win zone of Biden getting fewer than 269.
2. The two models have got closer in the last few days.
3. The headline ECV forecasts quoted by the websites are different things. The Economist quotes the median (currently 334), 538 quotes the expected value (329).
The British government simply wants No hard border in Ireland as well as no border in the Irish sea, the EU by refusing to concede on fishing rights and state aid is pushing No Deal anyway. Plus if Trump is re elected and the GOP regain Congress a US UK FTA still on
But but but why do we care what they about state aid? Aren't we sovereign and free to break the law in a very limited and specific way?
The EU are refusing to concede on fishing rights by restoring to England quotas sold by the English. Just because your boy wazzock told the fishermen that voting Brexit would restore the fishing rights they sold doesn't mean that in the real world it is true.
I'm sorry, your last paragraph is a basic misunderstanding of the concept. This has nothing to do with British fishing rights that have been sold to foreign fishing concerns. The confusion arises because both things are called 'quotas'.
To explain it to you, let's call individual fishing companies' fishing rights 'patches' instead (though it isn't the most apt word). Under the Common Fisheries Policy, all European countries have quotas governing how much they can fish. Within those quotas, individual 'patches' are awarded and some of the UK ones have been sold to foreign fishing concerns. That has nothing to do with the fact that the overall British 'quota' is significantly less than it would be if maritime law applied, and Britain was able to fish in its own territorial waters. The difference is distributed between other European fishing nations. It is THIS that will be taken back when we leave, and if you can provide any reason why it shouldn't be, I'm all ears.
Appreciate the further detail but I understand all that. Question - hothead voices on here and elsewhere have suggested we deploy the navy to stop foreign boats getting at "our fish". I appreciate that the volume we can catch will go up - we're leaving the CFP so why wouldn't it? But how can we stop people entering our waters to catch fish they have paid for the rights to catch...?
Then of course we get to the kind of fish caught in UK waters which is popular in export markets but far less so domestically. So we'll be able to catch more. And then struggle to commercially export it...
OK, well, I don't think anyone serious has suggested the Navy should prevent foreign fishing boats from fishing legally.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Obama got a free pass over here? Hardly. He got a roasting for his "back of the queue" comments. And as for his general attitude no less a person than our current PM lambasted him for being insufficiently anglocentric and offered the explanation that it was because he was black.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Obama got a free pass over here? Hardly. He got a roasting for his "back of the queue" comments. And as for his general attitude no less a person than our current PM lambasted him for being insufficiently anglocentric and offered the explanation that it was because he was black.
Did Americans only eat free range, organic chicken whilst he was POTUS? I am assuming the chlorinated stuff went on sale in 2017
Anecdata alert: we just went up to the Catskills for a couple of nights’ break. We stayed off the main highways for a more scenic drive, and so we passed through a lot of the very rural, and so much more Republican-leaning parts of New York State. Here is our count of election yard signs / flags etc.
Biden: 1 Trump: 1 “Bye Don” (geddit.): 1 Trump flag but upside down: 1 No bumper stickers were seen at all.
The election yard signs etc were outnumbered by Black Lives Matters signs, and those were outnumbered by “Thank you essential workers” signs.
Yes, NYS will go heavily Democratic as a whole, but I was quite surprised to see such a small amount of overt Trump support in the countryside. That said, there were very few yard signs out in 2016, compared to 2012. I guess most people feel the polarizarion of views here in the US and don’t want to expose themselves one way or another.
That's interesting. I love the Bye Don sign.
There were only two houses signalling on BLM in my villages. They had their signs up for ages, but they all came down by the August BH weekend.
The NHS worshipping rainbows are still all over the place of course.
Most of rural USA (Including upstate NY) leans GOP so interesting there's an equal number of Biden/Trump paraphenalia out there.
Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?) Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
A second wave may not be as bad as the first, for many reasons.
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
What a hero.
You did say it at the time and I wasn't sure about it then because I think any government which sees neighbouring European countries' health services overwhelmed can be cut some slack for panicking.
Now, not so much.
My local hospital, southern Alicante has kept functioning throughout for life threatening treatments, from referral through consultant, tests and treatment. I doubt anyone is getting a new hip as quickly as before though.
The British government simply wants No hard border in Ireland as well as no border in the Irish sea, the EU by refusing to concede on fishing rights and state aid is pushing No Deal anyway. Plus if Trump is re elected and the GOP regain Congress a US UK FTA still on
But but but why do we care what they about state aid? Aren't we sovereign and free to break the law in a very limited and specific way?
The EU are refusing to concede on fishing rights by restoring to England quotas sold by the English. Just because your boy wazzock told the fishermen that voting Brexit would restore the fishing rights they sold doesn't mean that in the real world it is true.
I'm sorry, your last paragraph is a basic misunderstanding of the concept. This has nothing to do with British fishing rights that have been sold to foreign fishing concerns. The confusion arises because both things are called 'quotas'.
To explain it to you, let's call individual fishing companies' fishing rights 'patches' instead (though it isn't the most apt word). Under the Common Fisheries Policy, all European countries have quotas governing how much they can fish. Within those quotas, individual 'patches' are awarded and some of the UK ones have been sold to foreign fishing concerns. That has nothing to do with the fact that the overall British 'quota' is significantly less than it would be if maritime law applied, and Britain was able to fish in its own territorial waters. The difference is distributed between other European fishing nations. It is THIS that will be taken back when we leave, and if you can provide any reason why it shouldn't be, I'm all ears.
Appreciate the further detail but I understand all that. Question - hothead voices on here and elsewhere have suggested we deploy the navy to stop foreign boats getting at "our fish". I appreciate that the volume we can catch will go up - we're leaving the CFP so why wouldn't it? But how can we stop people entering our waters to catch fish they have paid for the rights to catch...?
Then of course we get to the kind of fish caught in UK waters which is popular in export markets but far less so domestically. So we'll be able to catch more. And then struggle to commercially export it...
OK, well, I don't think anyone serious has suggested the Navy should prevent foreign fishing boats from fishing legally.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Obama got a free pass over here? Hardly. He got a roasting for his "back of the queue" comments. And as for his general attitude no less a person than our current PM lambasted him for being insufficiently anglocentric and offered the explanation that it was because he was black.
Citation needed.
On the first point, I think it depends on who is defining the 'legally'!
250,000+ ballot papers have been mailed out without Green candidate's name on them. State Supreme Court has now stopped any more ballots being sent out until issue resolved re Green candidate.
Now, if later decided that Green candidate should be on ballot, is it possible that if people vote using a ballot paper without Green candidate then their vote could be ruled invalid?
We could be talking about over 250,000 votes - if mainly Democrat then that could easily cost Biden the state.
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Obama got a free pass over here? Hardly. He got a roasting for his "back of the queue" comments. And as for his general attitude no less a person than our current PM lambasted him for being insufficiently anglocentric and offered the explanation that it was because he was black.
Did Americans only eat free range, organic chicken whilst he was POTUS? I am assuming the chlorinated stuff went on sale in 2017
You support my point. Another issue that was very much there under Obama. Remember all the opposition to TTIP?
No, this "Obama got a free pass because he was black" is a racist trope. Best to stay well away from it.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
A second wave may not be as bad as the first, for many reasons.
250,000+ ballot papers have been mailed out without Green candidate's name on them. State Supreme Court has now stopped any more ballots being sent out until issue resolved re Green candidate.
Now, if later decided that Green candidate should be on ballot, is it possible that if people vote using a ballot paper without Green candidate then their vote could be ruled invalid?
We could be talking about over 250,000 votes - if mainly Democrat then that could easily cost Biden the state.
Wisconsin Elections Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said Thursday, just prior to the court’s order, that some clerks may have already mailed ballots without West’s and Hawkins’ names on them. If West or Hawkins ends up getting on the ballot, the clerks would likely send voters a new ballot, Wolfe said. Voters would also likely receive instructions telling them that their first ballot would still count unless they mailed in the second one, she said.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Partly because the Democrats do better with the Irish American vote than the English American vote.
In 2016 for example 39% of Irish Americans voted for Clinton and 40% for Trump while 43% of English Americans voted for Trump and only 37% for Clinton.
In Congressional races 43% of Irish Americans identify most with the Democrats and 42% with the Republicans while 44% of English Americans identify most with the Republicans and only 36% with the Democrats.
In fact after the Black and Hispanic vote the Irish American vote is the strongest ethnic voting block for the Democrats
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
1. It's not the case that 538 is more bullish on Trump than the Economist on average: the medians of the two distributions are almost identical, and 538 actually has a slightly higher expected value (i.e. the sum of the probabilities for each ECV value times each ECV value). As I said in my article of a couple of days ago, the difference is only that the 538 model is flatter and so pulls more probability into the Trump win zone of Biden getting fewer than 269.
2. The two models have got closer in the last few days.
3. The headline ECV forecasts quoted by the websites are different things. The Economist quotes the median (currently 334), 538 quotes the expected value (329).
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
The whole territory of the UK is under UK sovereignty, so the same arguments could be used for domestic law to override the deal, no matter what it said.
Sweden. Two or three people are day roughly are dying from/with the virus.
Couple of hundred cases a day.
But everyone said Tegnell was wrong.
"Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been."
As he says on lockdowns: “It’s really using a hammer to kill a fly,”
Amazing really.
I said it on here in April to universal scorn and anger and I repeat it now.
Lockdown and its aftermath is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever.
What we are seeing now is a desperate attempt at backside covering by an administration that simply cannot, cannot admit its mistake. Supported pretty much all the ways by an opposition that would have made an even bigger mistake.
This will only change when things become much, much worse economically and socially and a majority of people are willing to accept the extra risk and the extra deaths (if they happen, the Swedish example says they won;t) to go back to a life that's worth living.
Our saviour, as I have pointed out in the past, is an unlikely one.
Step forward, Andrew Bailey. I'm sure Sunak would dearly love to prolong the illusion of furlough for much longer via extra gargantuan borrowing but Bailey has decided forthcoming generations have been mortgaged enough.
He won't bankroll Sunak's gilt sales any more. And Sunak fears adding to the country's debt.
What a hero.
Yes, I reckon the lockdown and subsequent withdrawal of freedoms will be the end of Boris' Tories, to be replaced by a party who would have done the same, or worse
It could open the door for a party who chances their arm at being lockdown sceptic though
I suspect the number of people changing their votes in 4 years time because of the lockdown will be around the square root of zero percent.
If Theresa May's deal had passed, the UK would have a much more credible walk-away position that would have avoided most of the issues created by Johnson's Irish Sea border.
It would have been more credible to walk away from the entire backstop?
Why?
It would have been more credible to walk away from the trade negotiations because the cliff edge would have been much smaller. We would have tariff-free trade in goods across the UK.
We wouldn't have had tariff free access if we walked away from our obligations, breached the treaty and diverged.
If you mean we could walk away by refusing to diverge and sticking to their rules - yeah we could do that but that's not the point. We could do that today if we wanted to do so.
No we couldn't. If we walk away now, then there would be tariffs on exports from GB to the EU even if we follow all their regulations.
But we're not going to be following their regulations, don't you understand that? 🙄
Under Theresa May's proposal how would we diverge our regulations and keep tariff free access?
The point is that everyone would know that on January 1st, 2021, there would be no tariffs even without a trade deal. Johnson's deal just recreated the Article 50 cliff edge.
Only if we stuck to EU rules, which we're not going to do.
Johnson's deal recreated the A50 cliff edge because we wanted the cliff edge there.
But here's the thing. And I wrote this on this board at the time.
The EU didn't like Mrs May's backstop. Giving the UK unprecedented rights to access the CU/SM without payment was a situation it would be keen to avoid.
So, they were incentivized to find a deal rather than to allow the clock to run down.
In the case of Boris Johnsons Withdrawal Agreement, the shoe is on the other foot. It is the UK that is in the uncomfortable position if a deal is not reached.
As I said at the time, this worsened the UK's negotiating position.
What the UK government should say (assuming they believe it) is "we signed the Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that the EU was sincere in seeking a fair free trade agreement. Sadly, that assumption turned out to be incorrect, and we are therefore with regret walking away from it."
That's the grown up way to deal with this.
Do you think that could be the next step?
I wonder if that might be what is getting discussed at 5:30pm?
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Partly because the Democrats do better with the Irish American vote than the English American vote.
In 2016 for example 39% of Irish Americans voted for Clinton and 40% for Trump while 43% of English Americans voted for Trump and only 37% for Clinton.
In Congressional races 43% of Irish Americans identify most with the Democrats and 42% with the Republicans while 44% of English Americans identify most with the Republicans and only 36% with the Democrats.
In fact after the Black and Hispanic vote the Irish American vote is the strongest ethnic voting block for the Democrats
Having slightly more votes from Irish Americans doesn't seem enough of a motivation to continually slag off one of your closest allies I wouldn't have thought, but there we are.
1. It's not the case that 538 is more bullish on Trump than the Economist on average: the medians of the two distributions are almost identical, and 538 actually has a slightly higher expected value (i.e. the sum of the probabilities for each ECV value times each ECV value). As I said in my article of a couple of days ago, the difference is only that the 538 model is flatter and so pulls more probability into the Trump win zone of Biden getting fewer than 269.
2. The two models have got closer in the last few days.
3. The headline ECV forecasts quoted by the websites are different things. The Economist quotes the median (currently 334), 538 quotes the expected value (329).
Very interesting. The recent money for Trump has opened up a goldmine if you think the polling data and the models derived from it are even halfway solid. I never thought I'd get the chance to get long of Biden EC supremacy at 28. A few weeks ago I was expecting the opening buy price to be more than double that. It has, in truth, led me to stake rather more than I was planning to do. I'm hoping the Trump price collapses to where (imo) it should be before too long. If it does I'll probably be slightly wussy and close half of my position.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Yes in May's the border was not in the Irish Sea it was between NI and the Republic.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
So in fact it's just another falsehood from PM Johnson.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
A second wave may not be as bad as the first, for many reasons.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
Here's the Johnson article. It starts off with him telling a story about the bust not just being "removed from The White House", but also that it was returned to the British Embassy.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
It's also the case that the clinicians involved have more experience on which to base their actions; ameliorating the more severe situations with Dexamethasone, for example.
I detest what Boris and Cummings have done over the WA. It's a disgrace.
But I also can't stand Nancy Pelosi. The hectoring glee with which she loves to lecture the UK whenever she has an opportunity.
A real un-diplomatic Britain hater.
Yeah I don't get why the Democrats hate us so much. Obama got a completely free pass for it here as well.
Partly because the Democrats do better with the Irish American vote than the English American vote.
In 2016 for example 39% of Irish Americans voted for Clinton and 40% for Trump while 43% of English Americans voted for Trump and only 37% for Clinton.
In Congressional races 43% of Irish Americans identify most with the Democrats and 42% with the Republicans while 44% of English Americans identify most with the Republicans and only 36% with the Democrats.
In fact after the Black and Hispanic vote the Irish American vote is the strongest ethnic voting block for the Democrats
Having slightly more votes from Irish Americans doesn't seem enough of a motivation to continually slag off one of your closest allies I wouldn't have thought, but there we are.
Getting votes is one of the oldest reasons in the book for a politician to say anything.
Plus they know we'll shrug our shoulders and not take it personally.
Plus of course a bit of Brit-bashing goes to the heart of America's own Origin Story.
There is a reason British actors are reknowned in Hollywood for playing the villains.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
So in fact it's just another falsehood from PM Johnson.
Since there isn't a direct quotation and we don't have the original article referenced, we don't know.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
30c is not as rare as you might think in September in London.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
30c is not as rare as you might think in September in London.
When was it last ? Struggle to remember, and my memory's usually fairly good.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
The Met Office have a record of 29.9C in October 2011. There have been quite a few extremely warm autumn spells in the last couple of decades.
This year as a whole is still on track to set a new Central England Temperature record, and this exceptionally warm spell will only help that.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
Makes perfect sense, Richard. I'm sure if one spent enough time on it (I won't) one could organise an all-green book and still get a pretty decent return.
The problem states for me are Florida and Texas. Intuitively I suspect Florida will buck the trend and stay red, but Texas may nevertheless go blue and of course it carries so many EC Votes it affects heavily most of my calculations. I'm pretty sure though that we can rule out a Trump landslide so I feel quite brave about buying Biden on the spreads.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
A second wave may not be as bad as the first, for many reasons.
That`s interesting Foxy. You think that mask wearing has resulted in a lower viral load from those hie become infected I guess?
Sweden? Mortality is down in Sweden, but masks are not compulsory. The Netherlands are in a similar position.
I am starting to think that a vaccine is not going to solve the social and economic crisis that we have. Possibly only a change in people's beliefs and thinking will do that. I think this is happening, but it is slow.
A vaccine can stop you from getting an infection, but it does not change a person's thinking.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
Here's the Johnson article. It starts off with him telling a story about the bust not just being "removed from The White House", but also that it was returned to the British Embassy.
And the Indy story is totally wrong about the story being 'false' - the statue that stayed in The White House was a different bust.
In other words, Obama sent the bust packing (don't get me wrong, I really don't care about his decor, and whilst I respect Churchill, I don't think the world should be required to kiss his arse), and he 'debunked' this totally true story by explaining that there was another bust of Churchill elsewhere in the White House, which he could have got rid of, but didn't.
More than 60 people have tested positive for coronavirus following a charity football match, health officials have said.
A further 33 people have now contracted the virus amid an outbreak linked to the event at Burnside Working Men's Club in Fencehouses, on the border of Sunderland and County Durham.
More go to sunny foreign holidays, mix with people from all over Europe and come back without being tested...
Unlike the idea of trying to keep British hospitality going, was totally unnecessary to allow the traditional summer holiday season.
Just madness. Utter and complete madness. We did this with the skiers in February and now we have done it again. Unbelievable.
Virtually every other country in Europe did it as well, to be fair. The tourist industry is 10% of Europe's GDP. Losing all of that, much of it permanently, would be horrendous.
I pity the governments trying to balance economic risks versus pandemic risks.
Did they all get this one wrong? Who knows.
I do know we now look set fair for a very unpleasant autumn and winter. It is going to be GRIM.
I think they have to find a way to live with Covid. From the conversaitons I have had with people from a variety of countries who I woud consider to be very focused on health and risk - and who can all work very easily and effectively from home - they all accepted the lock-downs and restrictions, and continue to do so, but they are going stir crazy. They are desperate to get out into the world again. I don't see how we carry on as we are beyond the end of next winter.
It's not even a question of carrying on as we are. European governments (and probably others worldwide) will be forced to reimpose tough lockdowns all over the shop, from autumn through winter - look at Melbourne's draconian curfew, and they have nothing like, say, the infections of Spain.
The 2nd wave is going to be grisly, it will require severe and repeated restrictions, and I don't think people WILL stand for these limitations, nor for the horrible economic damage that comes along with them.
Something has to give. What and where?
A second wave may not be as bad as the first, for many reasons.
That`s interesting Foxy. You think that mask wearing has resulted in a lower viral load from those hie become infected I guess?
Sweden? Mortality is down in Sweden, but masks are not compulsory. The Netherlands are in a similar position.
I am starting to think that a vaccine is not going to solve the social and economic crisis that we have. Possibly only a change in people's beliefs and thinking will do that. I think this is happening, but it is slow.
A vaccine can stop you from getting an infection, but it does not change a person's thinking.
Yes, mortality is down in Sweden - but we are talking about the mortality rate. I`m not sure whether this is down in Sweden.
(Also worth saying that though masks are not compulsory in Sweden I believe that they are widely used.)
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
The Met Office have a record of 29.9C in October 2011. There have been quite a few extremely warm autumn spells in the last couple of decades.
This year as a whole is still on track to set a new Central England Temperature record, and this exceptionally warm spell will only help that.
That said, this is the first year when I have sensed a definite step change in UK weather - towards warmth. From the amazing April-June sun to that week of 34C+ in London.
@Malmesbury with your data analysis are you able to chart the Positivity rate? That is the proportion of tests coming back positive?
If so would it be possible to eg chart that by country?
Your charts are fantastic, thank you for sharing.
There is a reporting issue with count of tests per pillar at the moment. PHE data only goes up to the 3rd, for England and Wales.
So you get this -
Thanks for that, concerning that there does seem to be an increase there - and the missing data doesn't help.
But can I check on how you've drawn the graph? It looks like an additive chart between the nations when it should surely be a criss-crossing chart? Or is it just a coincidence that the chart looks like it is additive? Ie on 2nd it reads like Scotland is a positivity rate of 12% - is that right or is it approximately a 2% rate that's been added to the other nations?
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
The Met Office have a record of 29.9C in October 2011. There have been quite a few extremely warm autumn spells in the last couple of decades.
This year as a whole is still on track to set a new Central England Temperature record, and this exceptionally warm spell will only help that.
That said, this is the first year when I have sensed a definite step change in UK weather - towards warmth. From the amazing April-June sun to that week of 34C+ in London.
It has felt *different*
I've just looked this up, and realised why something felt different - almost all those reports are for early september - they don't seem to be after about 3-5 September in most cases. Next week is mid-September.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Yes when it was discussed at the time it turned out there were two busts. Johnson was right, Kinabalu is wrong.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.
Anecdata alert: we just went up to the Catskills for a couple of nights’ break. We stayed off the main highways for a more scenic drive, and so we passed through a lot of the very rural, and so much more Republican-leaning parts of New York State. Here is our count of election yard signs / flags etc.
Biden: 1 Trump: 1 “Bye Don” (geddit.): 1 Trump flag but upside down: 1 No bumper stickers were seen at all.
The election yard signs etc were outnumbered by Black Lives Matters signs, and those were outnumbered by “Thank you essential workers” signs.
Yes, NYS will go heavily Democratic as a whole, but I was quite surprised to see such a small amount of overt Trump support in the countryside. That said, there were very few yard signs out in 2016, compared to 2012. I guess most people feel the polarizarion of views here in the US and don’t want to expose themselves one way or another.
That's interesting. I love the Bye Don sign.
There were only two houses signalling on BLM in my villages. They had their signs up for ages, but they all came down by the August BH weekend.
The NHS worshipping rainbows are still all over the place of course.
Most of rural USA (Including upstate NY) leans GOP so interesting there's an equal number of Biden/Trump paraphenalia out there.
Yes, but my sample size is so small that I wouldn’t read too much into it. I think the really remarkable part is the almost total lack of any election signage. There was a lot more in my NYC-suburbs area for the primaries. There's no general election signage for either party to speak of here either.
< blockquote class="Quote" rel="Pulpstar"> Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?) Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
@Malmesbury with your data analysis are you able to chart the Positivity rate? That is the proportion of tests coming back positive?
If so would it be possible to eg chart that by country?
Your charts are fantastic, thank you for sharing.
There is a reporting issue with count of tests per pillar at the moment. PHE data only goes up to the 3rd, for England and Wales.
So you get this -
Thanks for that, concerning that there does seem to be an increase there - and the missing data doesn't help.
But can I check on how you've drawn the graph? It looks like an additive chart between the nations when it should surely be a criss-crossing chart? Or is it just a coincidence that the chart looks like it is additive? Ie on 2nd it reads like Scotland is a positivity rate of 12% - is that right or is it approximately a 2% rate that's been added to the other nations?
Additive - probably will change it when I have time
Hmmmmm. The UK GOV portal is reporting they are doing a refresh. Will do another scrape of data in a bit.
EDIT - looks like they are backfilling data.
One thing about any Covid data, if the current levels are apparently at trend, reasonably safe to assume an increase as there's always backfilling to take place.
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Yes when it was discussed at the time it turned out there were two busts. Johnson was right, Kinabalu is wrong.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.
What I don't understand is how Obama's confirmation of the story - he fully admitted (as is his right) that he wanted to add the bust of MLK, and thought the area would look 'cluttered' with too many busts, so he got rid of Churchill. I don't understand how that's been made out to be a rebuttal. It's not! The only element of 'rebuttal' is that there's another bust of Churchill elsewhere in some corridor that Obama wants us to know he didn't also single out for removal. That may prove he's not a Churchill-fixated nutjob, but little else.
Hmmmmm. The UK GOV portal is reporting they are doing a refresh. Will do another scrape of data in a bit.
EDIT - looks like they are backfilling data.
One thing about any Covid data, if the current levels are apparently at trend, reasonably safe to assume an increase as there's always backfilling to take place.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Why is my money on you misreading it?
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
The Met Office have a record of 29.9C in October 2011. There have been quite a few extremely warm autumn spells in the last couple of decades.
This year as a whole is still on track to set a new Central England Temperature record, and this exceptionally warm spell will only help that.
That said, this is the first year when I have sensed a definite step change in UK weather - towards warmth. From the amazing April-June sun to that week of 34C+ in London.
It has felt *different*
30+C in September is certainly not frequent. I would say it is the exception rather than the rule, and so literally exceptional. But I wouldn't quite go as far as rare.
This summer just gone had spells in June and August that both set new records for the day, but as a whole the summer was only the 51st warmest (which still puts it in the warmest seventh).
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
So he said nothing about it being because Obama was black then, just confirming.
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
"Part Kenyan heritage and ancestral dislike of the British Empire."
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Yes when it was discussed at the time it turned out there were two busts. Johnson was right, Kinabalu is wrong.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.
So, it would appear that this time Johnson was telling the truth. Given his track record on honesty and accuracy I think you two are entitled to celebrate.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Why is my money on you misreading it?
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
You're as indefatigable as williamglenn.
Barnier and Frost could both hold press conferences saying that the talks have collapsed and that there will be no deal and you would still be saying that this means an extension.
Thanks Richard. This supports what we were discussing here earlier. The main thrust was that as a betting proposition the 5/6 you can get about what should be a 1/3 shot (i.e. Biden) is a bit of a gift.
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
My boots are filling up but are not yet up to the brim.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
At the moment, according to Betfair, Biden is more likely to win Arizona than to become president, which seem slightly odd.
The Betfair State odds are out of line with the Presidency odds.
It's an Andrea Leadsom/ Marco Rubio thing.
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
I wonder if Britain could have pulled the same trick of simply breaking international law by a domestic law and walking away with May's deal?
Under Boris's deal it was agreed and ratified that NI and the whole of the UK is in the UK's sovereign customs territory. We're not in EU or ECJ jurisdiction but we agreed to follow their rules, which we're now walking away from.
Under May's deal wasn't NI legally going to have been within the Customs Union? In which case walking away from that couldn't have been done in the same way surely since we'd be changing the rules for territory that legally wasn't under our jurisdiction?
Am I misreading that? Or was that a small but very significant difference between the two deals?
I will hazard a guess of "misreading that".
Why?
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
Why is my money on you misreading it?
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
You're as indefatigable as williamglenn.
Barnier and Frost could both hold press conferences saying that the talks have collapsed and that there will be no deal and you would still be saying that this means an extension.
And Boris Johnson could say the moon is made of all types of dairy products and you would believe him. Serial liars like Johnson must praise the Lord that there are so many suckers about.
Comments
Michael Holding: ECB defends players not taking a knee after criticism
https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/54118610
One of the most ridiculous bits of knee-ism I have seen is a rugby player refused to kneel and got loads of criticism....the rugby media then had to explain that he actually had an adopted black son.
Now, not so much.
I'm sure there's plenty of criticism of being forced to take the knee for months and the BLM movement in general they could report on, but that won't ever make their website.
It could open the door for a party who chances their arm at being lockdown sceptic though
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-10/new-covid-cases-soar-in-denmark-surpassing-no-lockdown-sweden
They really should just play the national anthem. If individuals want to knee, they can. Then the linked arms thing seems like something that has none perception of disrespect or servitude. IMO, arm and arm is a much better way of showing the racists that they are together as one.
That been said none of this is as bad as the NBA, with players replacing their name tags with "social justice slogans".
1. It's not the case that 538 is more bullish on Trump than the Economist on average: the medians of the two distributions are almost identical, and 538 actually has a slightly higher expected value (i.e. the sum of the probabilities for each ECV value times each ECV value). As I said in my article of a couple of days ago, the difference is only that the 538 model is flatter and so pulls more probability into the Trump win zone of Biden getting fewer than 269.
2. The two models have got closer in the last few days.
3. The headline ECV forecasts quoted by the websites are different things. The Economist quotes the median (currently 334), 538 quotes the expected value (329).
Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?)
Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
But we certainly saw pictures of hospitals literally overflowing.
I am more a lockdown sceptic than a "cancel everyone's summer holiday" kind of guy but now I think a more nuanced approach should be taken.
You can't hug granny in lockdown; and you shouldn't hug granny if there is no lockdown.
Either way granny doesn't get hugged. Unless she wants a hug.
250,000+ ballot papers have been mailed out without Green candidate's name on them. State Supreme Court has now stopped any more ballots being sent out until issue resolved re Green candidate.
Now, if later decided that Green candidate should be on ballot, is it possible that if people vote using a ballot paper without Green candidate then their vote could be ruled invalid?
We could be talking about over 250,000 votes - if mainly Democrat then that could easily cost Biden the state.
No, this "Obama got a free pass because he was black" is a racist trope. Best to stay well away from it.
Due to this mask effect is my hunch:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1304312706518994944?s=09
https://apnews.com/08b8c8ad04344805523e9c7a4889814c
Wisconsin Elections Commissioner Meagan Wolfe said Thursday, just prior to the court’s order, that some clerks may have already mailed ballots without West’s and Hawkins’ names on them. If West or Hawkins ends up getting on the ballot, the clerks would likely send voters a new ballot, Wolfe said. Voters would also likely receive instructions telling them that their first ballot would still count unless they mailed in the second one, she said.
In 2016 for example 39% of Irish Americans voted for Clinton and 40% for Trump while 43% of English Americans voted for Trump and only 37% for Clinton.
In Congressional races 43% of Irish Americans identify most with the Democrats and 42% with the Republicans while 44% of English Americans identify most with the Republicans and only 36% with the Democrats.
In fact after the Black and Hispanic vote the Irish American vote is the strongest ethnic voting block for the Democrats
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/trump-and-the-white-vote
Boris Johnson has criticised the US president Barack Obama and suggested his attitude to Britain might be based on his “part-Kenyan” heritage and “ancestral dislike of the British empire”.
Writing a column for The Sun newspaper the outgoing Mayor of London recounted a story about a bust of Winston Churchill purportedly being removed from White House.
“Some said it was a snub to Britain. Some said it was a symbol of the part-Kenyan President’s ancestral dislike of the British empire – of which Churchill had been such a fervent defender,” he wrote.
The White House said in 2012 that the story of the bust being moved was “100 per cent false” and that the bust remained in the White House, having been moved to the President's private residence.
Would NI have been legally in the UK's customs territory under May's deal?
And if NI wasn't could we have transferred it into our customs territory with a domestic law?
There are plenty of other value opportunities too as your numbers indicate, and also some pleasant hedges available for those lacking in cojones (like me). What we have here is what serious punters love to see - a mismatch between the form and the odds.
I will be amazed if you tell me you have not filled yer boots.
I wonder if that might be what is getting discussed at 5:30pm?
Or do you think its too late for that now?
Also, unlike the Indy, I don't remember any story about the bust being 'removed from The White House' - why would you need to remove a bust when you have a house of that size to store it in? It doesn't even belong to Obama *to* remove it. The story was about it being removed from The Oval Office, which it was.
As you say, there are some interesting hedging opportunities here, as is usually the case on the US presidentials. Essentially you can tune the shape of the chart of your likely gains/losses for each possible ECV outcome, by using different combinations of ordinary spread bets, N-up spread bets, fixed-odds on the winner, fixed-odds by band, and state bets. I aim to de-risk whilst getting a decent return in what I reckon is the central zone of the distribution.
I'm currently working on the assumption that the most likely individual outcomes for Biden are 289 or 290 (on 538's snake he wins up to AZ inclusive and maybe NE-2), 319 (add in FL), or on a good night 334 (add in NC). OH, GA, TX etc look a bit of a stretch unless there's a significant shift in Biden's favour, but would be nice. The downside looks less that the upside (which isn't to say that there isn't a possible downside, of course!)
https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/1139354/boris-johnson-uk-and-america-can-be-better-friends-than-ever-mr-obama-if-we-leave-the-eu/
OT, 31 celsius in London next week does sound worrying. I don't remember any temperatures like that in autumn at any time. At least it will keep people from spending too much time indoors, at an important time for keeping the virus under control.
Plus they know we'll shrug our shoulders and not take it personally.
Plus of course a bit of Brit-bashing goes to the heart of America's own Origin Story.
There is a reason British actors are reknowned in Hollywood for playing the villains.
What does that conjure up to you, skin colour wise?
As for the Johnson article -
Something mysterious happened when Barack Obama entered the Oval Office in 2009. Something vanished from that room, and no one could quite explain why. It was a bust of Winston Churchill – the great British war time leader. It was a fine goggle-eyed object, done by the brilliant sculptor Jacob Epstein, and it had sat there for almost ten years. But on day one of the Obama administration it was returned, without ceremony, to the British embassy in Washington.
Which it wasn't.
This year as a whole is still on track to set a new Central England Temperature record, and this exceptionally warm spell will only help that.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
If so would it be possible to eg chart that by country?
Your charts are fantastic, thank you for sharing.
All Together Now - "The last 3-5 days of data...."
The problem states for me are Florida and Texas. Intuitively I suspect Florida will buck the trend and stay red, but Texas may nevertheless go blue and of course it carries so many EC Votes it affects heavily most of my calculations. I'm pretty sure though that we can rule out a Trump landslide so I feel quite brave about buying Biden on the spreads.
Good luck whatever you do.
* we are tantalisingly close to a zero covid death day, see:
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1304406870631886849/photo/1
So you get this -
I am starting to think that a vaccine is not going to solve the social and economic crisis that we have. Possibly only a change in people's beliefs and thinking will do that. I think this is happening, but it is slow.
A vaccine can stop you from getting an infection, but it does not change a person's thinking.
It seems that's actually correct - it was sent back to the embassy, because Trump later asked them for it back:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2582745/donald-trump-has-asked-for-bust-of-winston-churchill-to-be-put-back-in-the-oval-office-after-obama-replaced-it-with-martin-luther-king/
And the Indy story is totally wrong about the story being 'false' - the statue that stayed in The White House was a different bust.
In other words, Obama sent the bust packing (don't get me wrong, I really don't care about his decor, and whilst I respect Churchill, I don't think the world should be required to kiss his arse), and he 'debunked' this totally true story by explaining that there was another bust of Churchill elsewhere in the White House, which he could have got rid of, but didn't.
I make that Bojo 1
Indy 0
Kinabula 0
More than 60 people have tested positive for coronavirus following a charity football match, health officials have said.
A further 33 people have now contracted the virus amid an outbreak linked to the event at Burnside Working Men's Club in Fencehouses, on the border of Sunderland and County Durham.
Hospitalisations seem to be creeping up.
"The last 3-5 days...."
(Also worth saying that though masks are not compulsory in Sweden I believe that they are widely used.)
"The highest September temperature recorded in the UK was 35.6C in Bawtry, South Yorkshire, in 1906. "
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-temperatures-soar-26c-20129884
That said, this is the first year when I have sensed a definite step change in UK weather - towards warmth. From the amazing April-June sun to that week of 34C+ in London.
It has felt *different*
But can I check on how you've drawn the graph? It looks like an additive chart between the nations when it should surely be a criss-crossing chart? Or is it just a coincidence that the chart looks like it is additive? Ie on 2nd it reads like Scotland is a positivity rate of 12% - is that right or is it approximately a 2% rate that's been added to the other nations?
EDIT - looks like they are backfilling data.
I'm sure Kinabalu will be willing to put his hand up and admit his mistake any moment now. And recognise that our Prime Minister was correct any moment now.
< blockquote class="Quote" rel="Pulpstar">
Texas is interesting, Fort Worth leans GOP but the southern border is actually Democrat (Even outside El Paso) despite having no major population centres (hispanic vote ?)
Dallas/Houston and the rest of rural Texas follow the normal urban DEM-rural GOP polarisation of most of the rest of the country.
Yes, the border counties are very Hispanic.
And even after Obama's admission, publications like The Guardian are trying to claim it was actually a limited-time loan and that somehow we asked for it back! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/22/barack-obama-winston-churchill-bust-oval-office-britain 'The real truth is complicated' - no it isn't, it's very simple.
Well, for 2 reasons. Number 1, track record. And number 2, your tendency to want to detect technical strengths in the deal you've hitched your wagon to as being massively better than May's one.
And the irony is that there's really no need. Because the Johnson deal IS genuinely better for somebody of a Hard Brexit Eng Nat persuasion. It allows GB to diverge or even make a clean break to WTO, puts a border in the Irish Sea, pushes NI towards the Republic, and as icing on the cake pisses off the Scots no end and makes a yes vote in a Sindy2 more likely. Ingerland. Ingerland.
Unfortunately (for you) he is not going to stick to it. It now transpires that he will not be putting a border in the Irish Sea because as someone once said that is something no UK Prime Minister could ever accept.
So, no border in the Irish Sea as it turns out and (obvs) no border across Ireland. This steers to only one outcome. Close alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU beyond 1st Jan 2021.
This summer just gone had spells in June and August that both set new records for the day, but as a whole the summer was only the 51st warmest (which still puts it in the warmest seventh).
Up up and away.
Barnier and Frost could both hold press conferences saying that the talks have collapsed and that there will be no deal and you would still be saying that this means an extension.
Sometimes Betfair just gets a boner for a candidate (or against a candidate) that it just can't shake.
A little bit of an increase it seems, but nowhere near as bad as I'd expected. That is very reassuring.
Guessing that means that the case number increase is at least in part due to an increase in testing?
The Internal Market Bill is a poison pill. It doesn't just ostentatiously break the law. It takes aim at the Good Friday Agreement and drives a coach and horses through the devolution settlement. It is objectionable in every respect.
IT IS INTENDED TO BE OBJECTIONABLE. Cunning plan alert !
The aim is get a coalition of Starmer Labourites, SNP'ers, Tory rebels, useful idiots in the Lords etc to vote it down.
Then go back to the EU and say, sorry can't give you UK State Aid intentions. The other lot voted it down.
Now we can blame Starmer for No Deal. Wahey !!!!!
----
Plausible?