politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fisking the PM – examining the background to his controversial
BREAKING: Boris Johnson’s spokesman confirms they will pass a new law to "clarify specific elements of the Northern Ireland Protocol in domestic law.”EU warns any attempt to renege on the Brexit withdrawal agreement will wreck any chance of a trade deal. https://t.co/6VDYBuWWwM
Comments
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First0
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Excellent piece.
The stifling of Parliament, the emasculation of the judiciary, the attacks on the media and lawyers, the breaking of international treaties are all happening in plain sight. Right wingers who have spent years talking piously about liberty and democracy have absolutely no problem with any of it.5 -
The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf0 -
Yes but. As the number of Covid cases rise, and folk begin to observe the many shortcomings of the PM.SouthamObserver said:Excellent piece.
The stifling of Parliament, the emasculation of the judiciary, the attacks on the media and lawyers, the breaking of international treaties are all happening in plain sight. Right wingers who have spent years talking piously about liberty and democracy have absolutely no problem with any of it.
Hey Presto we're talking about Brexit.
Job done.1 -
So instead of extending the "implementation period", we agree a brand new "adaptation phase"?HYUFD said:In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'3 -
Where did the Tory Party manifesto promise to undermine and violate treaties we've signed, aren't you supposed to be the law and order party?HYUFD said:The Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
The current EU position does not allow for that.'
In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
Before you answer, if another country decided to violate treaties they had signed with us, I am sure you would expect the UK to react strongly.
1 -
Trump playbook if so.dixiedean said:
Yes but. As the number of Covid cases rise, and folk begin to observe the many shortcomings of the PM.SouthamObserver said:Excellent piece.
The stifling of Parliament, the emasculation of the judiciary, the attacks on the media and lawyers, the breaking of international treaties are all happening in plain sight. Right wingers who have spent years talking piously about liberty and democracy have absolutely no problem with any of it.
Hey Presto we're talking about Brexit.
Job done.0 -
'This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU.'CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where did the Tory Party manifesto promise to undermine and violate treaties we've signed, aren't you supposed to be the law and order party?HYUFD said:The Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
The current EU position does not allow for that.'
In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
Before you answer, if another country decided to violate treaties they had signed with us, I am sure you would expect the UK to react strongly.
If the UK avoids a hard border in the Irish Sea it will still not impose a hard border within Ireland as per the Withdrawal Agreement and as Parliament is sovereign and the Tories have an 80 seat majority can amend the WA accordingly to reflect that0 -
OFD - Option for Future Divergence.williamglenn said:
So instead of extending the "implementation period", we agree a brand new "adaptation phase"?HYUFD said:In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'0 -
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.1 -
Nice piece of rapid rebuttal, @Cyclefree .1
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Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
Unlike other countries our Parliament is not bound by the decisions of a previous Parliament. It's a shame that the same people are in power though as it just shows how duplicitous Boris is.Nigelb said:
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.0 -
No, the government is answerable to the voters.Nigelb said:
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.1 -
Belarus opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova 'snatched from street' in Minsk
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/belarus-opposition-leader-maria-kolesnikova-snatched-from-street-in-minsk-reports0 -
Heard someone on the radio this morning talking about "when the pandemic was happening". It was a Brexit discussion so that was obviously to the forefront, the Covid misrepresentation wasn't picked up on by anyone...dixiedean said:
Yes but. As the number of Covid cases rise, and folk begin to observe the many shortcomings of the PM.SouthamObserver said:Excellent piece.
The stifling of Parliament, the emasculation of the judiciary, the attacks on the media and lawyers, the breaking of international treaties are all happening in plain sight. Right wingers who have spent years talking piously about liberty and democracy have absolutely no problem with any of it.
Hey Presto we're talking about Brexit.
Job done.0 -
Whilst I agree with the general thrust here and most of the points are well made, I am dubious about the one concerning press freedom.
Press freedom is basically about being able to investigate and report on matters of public interest (I put that in to differentiate from the dodgy tabloid reporting of private lives) without being harassed or censored. It is not about having an automatic right to whatever information they want on demand.
The Government refusing to cooperate with journalists and deciding not to invite them to briefings or hand over information they don't have to is not impinging on Press freedom. I don't care what the Council of Europe says about it, the Government's actions may be stupid and self defeating but they are not threatening the rights of the press to report what they want.1 -
Fisking - that's a rave from the grave. As Guido said: the art of getting a boring article and turning it into another boring article that is twice as long.1
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FPT: I would like to bring to everyone's attention that an intruder broke into my house and took over my computer and made the Falkland Isles and Gibraltar posts before fleeing the scene.4
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Boycotting specific outlets doesn't seem like "freedom" thoughRichard_Tyndall said:The Government refusing to cooperate with journalists and deciding not to invite them to briefings or hand over information they don't have to is not impinging on Press freedom.
0 -
The correct answer is 'yes, and the government is answerable to the voters'.Philip_Thompson said:
No, the government is answerable to the voters.Nigelb said:
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.
Just because they face a general election some time down the road does not give them the right to ignore the law.
As Cyclefree points out, they are free in law to legislate to set aside treaty provisions - but that would be in this case a direct abrogation of the treaty. You attempts to argue otherwise are the merest sophistry.2 -
What's causing the Donald's price to drift on Betfair? Surely it isn't just the Wisconsin poll from flaky old Rasmussen?0
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The case numbers being found are still below the ONS estimate of the community infection rate - 2000 per day. In England.RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The headline numbers you are looking at are reporting date, not specimen date.0 -
One assumes these increases are driven by travellers returning from mainland Europe before schools restart (lots of bosses also gave permission to WFH from overseas until end of August).RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That graph Peston includes is ridiculous and overtly provocative because it ignores the positivity rate and hence gives no indication of overall infection levels. In March the true number must have been something like 150-200k a day.
And yet the positivity rate now is still very low, under 1%. So how many cases are we really missing now? And perhaps the Track N Trace is actually doing the job and picking up traveller related clusters?
0 -
Why sign the treaty if you don't want to abide by it?Philip_Thompson said:
No, the government is answerable to the voters.Nigelb said:
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.1 -
I joined the SPIN EV market earlier on the advice of others.Peter_the_Punter said:What's causing the Donald's price to drift on Betfair? Surely it isn't just the Wisconsin poll from flaky old Rasmussen?
Maybe my huge wedge* was enough to move the markets...
* £50 -
No spectators inside, plenty of ill will outside. Kentucky Derby 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2020/sep/05/kentucky-derby-2020-empty-stands-and-armed-militias-at-americas-most-famous-race0 -
I doubt any country is bound by their prior decisions. That'd be daft, and they'd be living in caves.eek said:
Unlike other countries our Parliament is not bound by the decisions of a previous Parliament. It's a shame that the same people are in power though as it just shows how duplicitous Boris is.Nigelb said:
I might surprise you to learn that the EU is not bound by the winning Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:The winning Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
Raise standards in areas like workers’
rights, animal welfare, agriculture and
the environment.
Ensure we are in full control of our
fishing waters.'
The current EU position does not allow for that.
The government is, however, bound by the treaty which it signed.0 -
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1302918929183117312eek said:Unlike other countries our Parliament is not bound by the decisions of a previous Parliament. It's a shame that the same people are in power though as it just shows how duplicitous Boris is.
0 -
The real answer will come when the case rates rise to the 2000 a day rate the ONS was seeing on the 25 August - in England.moonshine said:
One assumes these increases are driven by travellers returning from mainland Europe before schools restart (lots of bosses also gave permission to WFH from overseas until end of August).RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That graph Peston includes is ridiculous and overtly provocative because it ignores the positivity rate and hence gives no indication of overall infection levels. In March the true number must have been something like 150-200k a day.
And yet the positivity rate now is still very low, under 1%. So how many cases are we really missing now? And perhaps the Track N Trace is actually doing the job and picking up traveller related clusters?
Either :
- The ONS was wrong
- There was truly massive change in the community infection rate after that date
- Or the case rate rise will stop.
for reference -
1 -
"Robots to be used in UK care homes to help reduce loneliness
Machines can hold simple conversations and have been found to improve mental health"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/07/robots-used-uk-care-homes-help-reduce-loneliness0 -
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Oddly, the SPIN EV markets are holding firm against a strong current on Betfair.Scott_xP said:
I joined the SPIN EV market earlier on the advice of others.Peter_the_Punter said:What's causing the Donald's price to drift on Betfair? Surely it isn't just the Wisconsin poll from flaky old Rasmussen?
Maybe my huge wedge* was enough to move the markets...
* £5
Maybe you've lulled the Sporting traders into a false sense of security.
1 -
-
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Good. Maybe they can knock some heads together win von der Leyen and Barnier and the EU can accept the UK's entirely reasonable proposals: have fish settled like Norway, have state aid settled like Canada.Scott_xP said:
Then we can put all this behind us and move on with our lives.0 -
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.3 -
Conflict with the judges you say? Hmmm. Can't think why a certain strategist would want that at this stage...Scott_xP said:2 -
How long before actual government functionaries start talking about the need to abandon 'May's disastrous Withdrawal Agreement'?Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1302918929183117312eek said:Unlike other countries our Parliament is not bound by the decisions of a previous Parliament. It's a shame that the same people are in power though as it just shows how duplicitous Boris is.
1 -
Deleted, I can't read.0
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Might be some heavy Trump hitters on the other side. They're a determined bunch and have a repeat of 2016 in their heads.Peter_the_Punter said:
Oddly, the SPIN EV markets are holding firm against a strong current on Betfair.Scott_xP said:
I joined the SPIN EV market earlier on the advice of others.Peter_the_Punter said:What's causing the Donald's price to drift on Betfair? Surely it isn't just the Wisconsin poll from flaky old Rasmussen?
Maybe my huge wedge* was enough to move the markets...
* £5
Maybe you've lulled the Sporting traders into a false sense of security.0 -
As I say it is stupid and counter productive but it is hardly oppressive. Many countries including most democracies have 'accredited' news companies and without that accreditation you don't get access to Government briefings and information. The Council of Europe have never claimed this is impinging on Press Freedom.Scott_xP said:
Boycotting specific outlets doesn't seem like "freedom" thoughRichard_Tyndall said:The Government refusing to cooperate with journalists and deciding not to invite them to briefings or hand over information they don't have to is not impinging on Press freedom.
I am a big fan of Declassified UK but refusing to deal with them is simply not oppressive in the way it is being made out.
0 -
.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
0 -
I see your problem. You think a Canada-style deal will make our relationship with the EU only as significant to us as Canada's relationship with the EU is to Canada and we won't have to think about it very much anymore. You're ignoring scale and geography.Philip_Thompson said:
Good. Maybe they can knock some heads together win von der Leyen and Barnier and the EU can accept the UK's entirely reasonable proposals: have fish settled like Norway, have state aid settled like Canada.Scott_xP said:
Then we can put all this behind us and move on with our lives.0 -
People do seem particularly able to pick it up on foreign trips even if the prevalence is similiar in their holiday country. I guess interactions are upped compared to staying at home.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.1 -
The PB Tories are going into care homes?Andy_JS said:"Robots to be used in UK care homes to help reduce loneliness
Machines can hold simple conversations and have been found to improve mental health"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/07/robots-used-uk-care-homes-help-reduce-loneliness0 -
Raw case number is pointless. Test positive rate is the only worthwhile thing to look at whilst waiting for the ONS figures.RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
I was struck by thisrottenborough said:Conflict with the judges you say? Hmmm. Can't think why a certain strategist would want that at this stage...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1302977246995648513
Who exactly might be facing a reduction, and who in turn might be expecting a more prosperous future?
I venture they are not a congruent set...1 -
Indeed it can; whether it would ever be trusted with a trade agreement again is a different matter. Personally I'd rather be proud of my country for supporting the rule of law, not one that skulks about with he credibility of Somalia.HYUFD said:
'This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU.'CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where did the Tory Party manifesto promise to undermine and violate treaties we've signed, aren't you supposed to be the law and order party?HYUFD said:The Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
The current EU position does not allow for that.'
In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
Before you answer, if another country decided to violate treaties they had signed with us, I am sure you would expect the UK to react strongly.
If the UK avoids a hard border in the Irish Sea it will still not impose a hard border within Ireland as per the Withdrawal Agreement and as Parliament is sovereign and the Tories have an 80 seat majority can amend the WA accordingly to reflect that3 -
RobD said:
.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The ONS numbers have been essentially flat since the beginning of June
Cases have been rising since the end of June.
0 -
Hmm, rather runs against Peston and screechy narrative, doesn't it?Malmesbury said:
The real answer will come when the case rates rise to the 2000 a day rate the ONS was seeing on the 25 August - in England.moonshine said:
One assumes these increases are driven by travellers returning from mainland Europe before schools restart (lots of bosses also gave permission to WFH from overseas until end of August).RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That graph Peston includes is ridiculous and overtly provocative because it ignores the positivity rate and hence gives no indication of overall infection levels. In March the true number must have been something like 150-200k a day.
And yet the positivity rate now is still very low, under 1%. So how many cases are we really missing now? And perhaps the Track N Trace is actually doing the job and picking up traveller related clusters?
Either :
- The ONS was wrong
- There was truly massive change in the community infection rate after that date
- Or the case rate rise will stop.
for reference -0 -
I would guess because most people in their home country spent 5 days a week working (a lot of which is now from own home). Perhaps one night out per week in your home town, and we have some form of track and trace to try and isolate outbreaks.Pulpstar said:
People do seem particularly able to pick it up on foreign trips even if the prevalence is similiar in their holiday country. I guess interactions are upped compared to staying at home.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
Where as on holiday you will be interacting with loads of different people from all over Europe in a big melting pot, sherbets every day, leads to zero social distancing, etc etc etc. And then when people return, we have no real ability to trace where they got it, who they passed it on to.
And of course lots of people have gone to places like Spain and France where it was already on the upward tick.0 -
Waiting? I'm too impatient for that.Alistair said:
Raw case number is pointless. Test positive rate is the only worthwhile thing to look at whilst waiting for the ONS figures.RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
The Withdrawal Agreement is an international treaty.HYUFD said:
'This will be a new relationship based on free trade and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s treaties or EU law. There will be no political alignment with the EU.'CorrectHorseBattery said:
Where did the Tory Party manifesto promise to undermine and violate treaties we've signed, aren't you supposed to be the law and order party?HYUFD said:The Tory manifesto of 2019 promised
'Our priority as Conservatives is to get
Brexit done – so that we can unleash
the potential of this great country. This will be
a new relationship based on free trade
and friendly cooperation, not on the EU’s
treaties or EU law. There will be no political
alignment with the EU. We will keep the
UK out of the single market, out of any
form of customs union, and end the role
of the European Court of Justice.
This future relationship will be one that
allows us to:
Take back control of our laws.
Take back control of our money.
Control our own trade policy.
Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration.
The current EU position does not allow for that.'
In that case the Tory manifesto also promised 'we will not extend the implementation
period beyond December 2020'
https://assets-global.website-files.com/5da42e2cae7ebd3f8bde353c/5dda924905da587992a064ba_Conservative 2019 Manifesto.pdf
Before you answer, if another country decided to violate treaties they had signed with us, I am sure you would expect the UK to react strongly.
If the UK avoids a hard border in the Irish Sea it will still not impose a hard border within Ireland as per the Withdrawal Agreement and as Parliament is sovereign and the Tories have an 80 seat majority can amend the WA accordingly to reflect that
Suppose you sign a mortgage agreement with a bank and, because you are sovereign over your bank account (which you are, until of course Mrs HYUFD arrives), a year later you decide to amend your mortgage agreement to reflect the fact that you don't want to make the monthly payments any more.
All good?0 -
Who gives a damn what they think now? What matters is what they think next year.Philip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.2 -
On Topic:
Since we cannot trust anything the Govt says - since we have no idea what is posturing and what is actual intention - then all we can do is let it play out until we get to 1st Jan 2021. After that, the reality of Brexit will be there for all to see. Only then can we really judge.
I expect there to be a loud burst of jingoist rah-rah on New Year's Eve followed by a wake up call over the first few weeks.
I am not expecting it to be pleasant.2 -
Ms Cyclefree obviously struggles to fill her day2
-
Is there any evidence that these policies have led to an increase in poorly people?FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
70% of covidians are asymptomatic, most people who have it don't even know they have it unless for some reason they get tested.0 -
How many daily tests are being done in England right now0
-
Prof Peston, screechy narrative, surely not.....expert on everything from chemical engineering to macro-economics.Anabobazina said:
Hmm, rather runs against Peston and screechy narrative, doesn't it?Malmesbury said:
The real answer will come when the case rates rise to the 2000 a day rate the ONS was seeing on the 25 August - in England.moonshine said:
One assumes these increases are driven by travellers returning from mainland Europe before schools restart (lots of bosses also gave permission to WFH from overseas until end of August).RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That graph Peston includes is ridiculous and overtly provocative because it ignores the positivity rate and hence gives no indication of overall infection levels. In March the true number must have been something like 150-200k a day.
And yet the positivity rate now is still very low, under 1%. So how many cases are we really missing now? And perhaps the Track N Trace is actually doing the job and picking up traveller related clusters?
Either :
- The ONS was wrong
- There was truly massive change in the community infection rate after that date
- Or the case rate rise will stop.
for reference -0 -
It's a fantastic race meeting. In normal times.Pulpstar said:No spectators inside, plenty of ill will outside. Kentucky Derby 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2020/sep/05/kentucky-derby-2020-empty-stands-and-armed-militias-at-americas-most-famous-race0 -
Apparently so, because he will send the Commandos in to give you a taste of cold steel if he does not get his way.........TOPPING said:Suppose you sign a mortgage agreement with a bank and, because you are sovereign over your bank account (which you are, until of course Mrs HYUFD arrives), a year later you decide to amend your mortgage agreement to reflect the fact that you don't want to make the monthly payments any more.
All good?0 -
I take your point, but that's not what happened.Richard_Tyndall said:As I say it is stupid and counter productive but it is hardly oppressive. Many countries including most democracies have 'accredited' news companies and without that accreditation you don't get access to Government briefings and information. The Council of Europe have never claimed this is impinging on Press Freedom.
I am a big fan of Declassified UK but refusing to deal with them is simply not oppressive in the way it is being made out.
It's not that the Government refuse to accredit some fringe outfit, it's that they explicitly ban 'accredited' news organizations from receiving briefings that are made available others.
Banning the Mirror from BoZo's bus, for example.
It doesn't stop the Mirror writing a story, but it absolutely stops them asking pertinent questions, which is the point of 'a free press holding people to account'0 -
Depends which pillars you want to include, but I believe its about ~300-350k. The positive percentage has been at or below 1% for many weeks.Pulpstar said:How many daily tests are being done in England right now
0 -
25% of LEAVE voters think No Deal is a bad outcome0
-
Majority of Brits think No Deal is bad outcome, so no Johnson is not talking on behalf of the country1
-
Peston, quite early on in the COVID crisis, distinguished himself as a person who was unable to learn about it. When talking with an expert on the subject. He seemed to find people telling him that he is wrong, offensive.Malmesbury said:RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
The ONS numbers have been essentially flat since the beginning of June
Cases have been rising since the end of June.
I am often wrong. In science, that is the whole point. Trying to impress the universe with your arguments is... entertaining. For suitably distant bystanders. I met someone who had dealt with Louis Slotin. The ultimate example of someone who failed to impress reality with his arguments.0 -
As soon as Brexit becomes defined, it no longer has majority support, that's the reality - Johnson's coalition cannot hold indefinitely1
-
Why wait when you can panic, Alistair?Alistair said:
Raw case number is pointless. Test positive rate is the only worthwhile thing to look at whilst waiting for the ONS figures.RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I'm not sure it matters, the election isn't until 2024.CorrectHorseBattery said:As soon as Brexit becomes defined, it no longer has majority support, that's the reality - Johnson's coalition cannot hold indefinitely
0 -
You were acting yesterday like Brits were behind Johnson and his Brexit planPhilip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.0 -
Absolutely.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Who gives a damn what they think now? What matters is what they think next year.Philip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
And if I'm right then by next year the vast majority will be thinking "what was all the fuss about?"0 -
Yes, hopefully* with a Biden presidency and vaccine it can get back to normal next year.TOPPING said:
It's a fantastic race meeting. In normal times.Pulpstar said:No spectators inside, plenty of ill will outside. Kentucky Derby 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2020/sep/05/kentucky-derby-2020-empty-stands-and-armed-militias-at-americas-most-famous-race
* Knocks wood0 -
I'm panicing a bit. Test positive numbers in Scotland are shooting up.MaxPB said:
Why wait when you can panic, Alistair?Alistair said:
Raw case number is pointless. Test positive rate is the only worthwhile thing to look at whilst waiting for the ONS figures.RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm hoping Scotland is going to be included in the next release of the ONS figures as they started doing stuff on the 18th of August.0 -
And if I'm right the a significant minority are going to be thinking where has my job gone and regardless of whether they blame Covid or Brexit Boris will be taking the blame.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Who gives a damn what they think now? What matters is what they think next year.Philip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
And if I'm right then by next year the vast majority will be thinking "what was all the fuss about?"1 -
Afternoon all. Talking to you all as the middle window on my new ultrawide monitor, with two other windows either side. There is literally more space on this monitor than I know what to do with! So much better than the monitor plus laptop screen I had before.2
-
Like the apocryphal story of the taxi driver taking a young lady home from the airport after her holiday in Spain - he "bring any nice presents back with you love?", she "we shall just 'ave to wait and see shan't we".Pulpstar said:
People do seem particularly able to pick it up on foreign trips even if the prevalence is similiar in their holiday country. I guess interactions are upped compared to staying at home.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.0 -
This point was made earlier.CorrectHorseBattery said:As soon as Brexit becomes defined, it no longer has majority support, that's the reality - Johnson's coalition cannot hold indefinitely
All of the wild gyrations by BoZo, each of which is loudly cheered by the same people who were cheering the opposite the day before, is designed to postpone the moment of realisation for one more day...
Once the wave function collapses and the cheerleaders realise the cat has been dead since before BoZo wrote his 2 articles, his days are numbered2 -
Then I hope we can agree - let us hope that I am right and you are wrong.eek said:
And if I'm right the a significant minority are going to be thinking where has my job gone.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Who gives a damn what they think now? What matters is what they think next year.Philip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
And if I'm right then by next year the vast majority will be thinking "what was all the fuss about?"0 -
I think that's right - we're still in the land of magic and mirages with all this. How far Boris can distant himself from the cold, raw reality of Brexit proper will be the defining political question of the coming months and years.CorrectHorseBattery said:As soon as Brexit becomes defined, it no longer has majority support, that's the reality - Johnson's coalition cannot hold indefinitely
2 -
Keeneland is also a pretty special place.Pulpstar said:
Yes, hopefully* with a Biden presidency and vaccine it can get back to normal next year.TOPPING said:
It's a fantastic race meeting. In normal times.Pulpstar said:No spectators inside, plenty of ill will outside. Kentucky Derby 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/gallery/2020/sep/05/kentucky-derby-2020-empty-stands-and-armed-militias-at-americas-most-famous-race
* Knocks wood0 -
At the moment no. My issue is really it was unnecessary to allow everybody to leave the country in August and by doing so we lose our ability to track and trace. It is repeat of how it started with it being imported from all those on ski holidays in Italy and Austria.Anabobazina said:
Is there any evidence that these policies have led to an increase in poorly people?FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
70% of covidians are asymptomatic, most people who have it don't even know they have it unless for some reason they get tested.
If we were going to do this, we needed to have a proper testing system upon return. And politically it didn't really help the government as they swapped and changed which countries were "air-bridged" and led to the continued "its confusing" narrative.1 -
ONS only reports some time later doesn't it? There are a couple of weeks since then when there has been a profound change in movement and mixing.RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Are they reaching enough younger people? The actual testing suggests a big rise in 17-21 year olds, are they getting a representative sample?0 -
Maybe airports are festering plague pits. Maybe Johnny Foreigner has far greater use of aircon than if staying at home.Pulpstar said:
People do seem particularly able to pick it up on foreign trips even if the prevalence is similiar in their holiday country. I guess interactions are upped compared to staying at home.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
Or maybe too many people get pissed on holiday and enter a "I don't give a shit" phase of denial about the risks?
Covid-19 just LOVES people consuming alcohol.0 -
At a guess, the polling has not been great for him over the past few days and it is a cumulative effect.Peter_the_Punter said:What's causing the Donald's price to drift on Betfair? Surely it isn't just the Wisconsin poll from flaky old Rasmussen?
Hell, even if I said the data out of NC didn't look good for him this morning.
Mind you, good piece on NBC re NC: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/presidential-race-narrows-north-carolina-voters-say-they-want-face-n12392550 -
Why don't we just wait and see or alternatively put your money where your mouth is?eek said:
And if I'm right the a significant minority are going to be thinking where has my job gone and regardless of whether they blame Covid or Brexit Boris will be taking the blame.Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Who gives a damn what they think now? What matters is what they think next year.Philip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
And if I'm right then by next year the vast majority will be thinking "what was all the fuss about?"1 -
Regarding COVID cases being brought in by holiday makers... seven Greek islands have today been added to the ‘quarantine’ list. Five have international airports from which one might return and so be identified as a necessary stay-at-homer. Two have no airport (Tinos and Serifo) and so one would almost certainly return from Athens. How does that work? Do you have to effectively volunteer for quarantine? Better not wear the Tinos t-shirt when arriving at Gatwick.0
-
Has any research been done about risk at airports? Naively they seem a perfect vector for transmission, 1000s of people all together from all over the world, aircon, plus you have to sit there for several hours.MarqueeMark said:
Maybe airports are festering plague pits. Maybe Johnny Foreigner has far greater use of aircon than if staying at home.Pulpstar said:
People do seem particularly able to pick it up on foreign trips even if the prevalence is similiar in their holiday country. I guess interactions are upped compared to staying at home.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
Or maybe too many people get pissed on holiday and enter a "I don't give a shit" phase of denial about the risks?
Covid-19 just LOVES people consuming alcohol.0 -
I think a couple of weeks, but it's been virtually flat compared to the constant rise in cases detected via testing. Unsure about the age group, I'd hope they would know how to get a representative sample. They are the ONS for goodness sake.ukpaul said:
ONS only reports some time later doesn't it? There are a couple of weeks since then when there has been a profound change in movement and mixing.RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Are they reaching enough younger people? The actual testing suggests a big rise in 17-21 year olds, are they getting a representative sample?
1 -
You never have.Beibheirli_C said:On Topic:
Since we cannot trust anything the Govt says - since we have no idea what is posturing and what is actual intention - then all we can do is let it play out until we get to 1st Jan 2021. After that, the reality of Brexit will be there for all to see. Only then can we really judge.
I expect there to be a loud burst of jingoist rah-rah on New Year's Eve followed by a wake up call over the first few weeks.
I am not expecting it to be pleasant.
But you seem rather more rattled than when you were going rah-rah, waving your Irish passport in the faces of those less fortunate....1 -
They are. "There is only one poll that matters".CorrectHorseBattery said:
You were acting yesterday like Brits were behind Johnson and his Brexit planPhilip_Thompson said:
So only two to one?Scott_xP said:
Given the way people act with such hysteria over No Deal you'd think it'd be a landslide the other way not just two to one.
Johnson won the polls that mattered (the referendum and the election), now he needs to do whatever he thinks is best, subject to Parliamentary approval where appropriate - then be judged or damned in four years time on the results of that.0 -
Pillar 2 has been steadily rising since July, as of 24 Aug up to 1.93% up from a low of 1.35%. That contrasts markedly with pillar 1 where it is pretty much the lowest it's been (low numbers tested in pillar 1, though). Since start of September it is likely above 2% in the community already.Alistair said:
Raw case number is pointless. Test positive rate is the only worthwhile thing to look at whilst waiting for the ONS figures.RobD said:.
Yeah, but this chart has been rising continuously for the past month or so.Alistair said:
Isn't the ONS surveys lagged by a week or so?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/0 -
Oh, I agree, the management of the air-bridges was shambolic, as is pretty much everything with Bozza and Buddies.FrancisUrquhart said:
At the moment no. My issue is really it was unnecessary to allow everybody to leave the country in August and by doing so we lose our ability to track and trace. It is repeat of how it started with it being imported from all those on ski holidays in Italy and Austria.Anabobazina said:
Is there any evidence that these policies have led to an increase in poorly people?FrancisUrquhart said:
Its seems half (I am obviously being slightly hyperbolic) the premier league footballers have it on return from their holidays and only being picked up because they are all being tested e.g. two Man City players today.Anabobazina said:
How many of those cases are sick?RobD said:
Cases really picking up now. I wonder why this wasn't seen in the ONS surveys. Maybe it's a case of more intense but localised clusters, which I would guess are more difficult to pick up via random sampling.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Letting everybody go on a foreign summer holiday in August seems a particular idiotic move, along with the ever changing (it has just changed again) series of "air-bridge" countries.
70% of covidians are asymptomatic, most people who have it don't even know they have it unless for some reason they get tested.
If we were going to do this, we needed to have a proper testing system upon return. And politically it didn't really help the government as they swapped and changed which countries were "air-bridged" and led to the continued "its confusing" narrative.
1 -
https://twitter.com/lindyli/status/1302641204778201088
No sound here, but seems like a good answer. One does get a slight twinge of Covid US betting related worries seeing him out in the open like this though !
0
