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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825

    It isn't a very good look before either.
    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Foxy said:

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    The link between the £/$ exchange rate and the FTSE 100 is almost perfectly inverse, thanks to most of the largest British companies earning the majority of their income overseas.

    The rise is the FTSE today is more likely on the basis of expectations of a V-shaped recovery. The stats, while not good objectively, were not as bad as the markets had feared.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    kinabalu said:

    I suppose the word National in the party name could be deemed to be an ongoing asset. But they will need to rebrand and to choose a clearer political identity because the current one - the realization of an independent Scotland - will have become redundant.
    The wisest pressure group in history was the Anti-Corn Law League.

    The day after the Corn Laws were repealed, they held a huge banquet, then dissolved the League on the spot.

    (Do not believe Wikipedia claims to the contrary - they are confusing it with a different organisation.)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    Typical thread on transport forum when there is a major incident:

    20% "Thoughts & prayers..."
    20% Speculation
    20% "It's too early to speculate..."
    20% Wonky trivia
    20% Useful posts
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575

    Typical thread on transport forum when there is a major incident:

    20% "Thoughts & prayers..."
    20% Speculation
    20% "It's too early to speculate..."
    20% Wonky trivia
    20% Useful posts

    To quote CS Forester, ‘Speculation is surely a fascinating thing, Sir Horatio.’
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    The swing in Kensington was only 0.2% to the Tories compared to 9.6% nationwide. Broadly I think Keir gets back the "I'm not voting for Corbyn" votes more easily than the "Brexit Brexit Brexit" votes, enough of those probably went for Gyimah last time round to push Kensington back Labour even against a small swing to the Tories broadly - which I doubt happens in 2024.
    The national swing to the Tories in 2019 was 4.8% - not 9.6%.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    eek said:

    Um doesn't the Barnett Formula mean that Scotland receives more per capita then England does as government spending increases to reflect Scotland's additional costs...

    The fact that millions are then wasted on free University education and other similar differences (prescriptions being another) doesn't mean you need more money, Scotland already receives more per capita, it just needs to be better at spending it.
    No it does not cover it, they only include whatever spending they think in Barnett, huge amounts they keep out so as to starve Scotland of consequentials. Most of the money is controlled by London and they decide where most of it can be spent , so Scottish Government cannot just switch money about , England tell them where it must be spent. We are not thick and just spray money about , what little they can budget themselves is well spent on suiting Scotland, the majority is controlled by England and large chunks of it kept there and spent on what they want not what we need. The shite per capita numbers are made up crap by English government , most of which they have spent on rubbish we do not want , they just allocate it to try and make Scotland look bad. Go and read up how crap the Barnett formula is an dhow much they deliberately exclude from it and the amount of their crap expenditure they lump onto Scotland.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    RobD said:

    I had read unemployment was static, which surprised me. Is the reality different?
    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    kinabalu said:

    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    malcolmg said:

    You idiot , what can you do without funding , if you do not control funding you control ZERO. Jog on.
    You control how the funding is spent and you get funding according to pupil numbers you have 100,000 pupils you get 6,6 billion to spend. How you spend it is then down to holyrood . Its nothing more to do with england or the uk parliament its down to currently the snp and greens to allocate how funds are spent.

    You get more funding per pupil than england does so its totally down to holyrood choices on how they allocate that cash sum they receive and if scottish pupils are still disadvantaged vs english ones then you should be looking at how holyrood allocates that funding they receive.

    I can't explain it any simpler as sadly my crayons have melted in the heat
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    eek said:

    You may wish to actually look at the actual formulas (say at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula ) rather than believing the lies the SNP continually repeat.

    The formulas are designed to keep everything consistent, so that whatever additional percentages was set years ago to cover the additional costs Scotland and co incur continue for ever. So if Scotland got £1.05 for every £1 in England, as England added £1, Scotland would get an extra £1.05....

    Now its possible that there are areas where Scotland receives less per capita than people in England do but given that Scotland loves to complain about how badly they are treated if any such situations actually existed we would hear about it every second of every minute of every hour of every day.
    More bollox, why don't you suggest all the money goes to Scotland and we will decide how much England gets and what it will be spent on. Try and use an F**ing brain cell, or give your neighbour your salary from now and ask him to run your affairs how he wishes and decide how much cash you get and decide where he spends the rest of your cash. FFS.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    Are you opposed to, say, Tibetan nationalism, or that of any of the countries of the USSR that weren't Russia? Is it wrong that Norway and Poland are countries? It seems to broad a category of things to be monolithically for or against.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Foxy said:

    The weird bit is that yesterday's awful unemployment stats and todays GDP have led to a 200 point gain on the FTSE100. As an investor I am happy, but bemused. The disconnect is near total.
    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Pulpstar said:

    The FTSE is undervalued generally I think though. Certainly compared to the US.
    Yes, I would short the US if I were still doing that sort of thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    Foxy said:

    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Foxy said:

    A bit more complex. Unemployment was static, but employment down for the most in a decade. Presumably leaving the employment market entirely, rather than signing on.
    Ah, an important distinction, thanks. I suspect the unemployment figures will start rising very soon though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    ydoethur said:

    The wisest pressure group in history was the Anti-Corn Law League.

    The day after the Corn Laws were repealed, they held a huge banquet, then dissolved the League on the spot.

    (Do not believe Wikipedia claims to the contrary - they are confusing it with a different organisation.)
    Sort of stuff you know.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Thats my point. The Labour MP had shown that she was reprehensible. And there were sane Tory and LibDem candidates in 2019. Why vote for the silly candidate when sensible alternatives are there. She stood on the rostrum when the 2019 results were read out with her fist in the air FFS
    Labour's loss of Kensington was due to the misdirected Tactical Voting campaign as a result of which many voted LD in the mistaken belief their candidate was better placed to beat the Tories. Without that Labour would probably have held the seat with an increased majority.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    MaxPB said:

    If you had been reading my posts on this stuff the gain would not be surprising, the figures are much better than expected and the headline hides a lot of good news.
    A 20% drop in GDP is "much better than expected"????

    Pray tell. It is, for what it is worth, roughly what I was expecting. A fifth of shops and pubs are shuttered. We've lost a fifth of the economy.

    How bad were you expecting, and why?

    Sincere questions. You're a smart commenter and it's always nice to hear an optimistic take
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited August 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
    538's model has it going to Trump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    LadyG said:

    A 20% drop in GDP is "much better than expected"????

    Pray tell. It is, for what it is worth, roughly what I was expecting. A fifth of shops and pubs are shuttered. We've lost a fifth of the economy.

    How bad were you expecting, and why?

    Sincere questions. You're a smart commenter and it's always nice to hear an optimistic take
    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/august-2020-gdp-tracker#.XzP-6B7RbxM

    Sums it up better than I can at the moment. No access to data.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    justin124 said:

    Labour's loss of Kensington was due to the misdirected Tactical Voting campaign as a result of which many voted LD in the mistaken belief their candidate was better placed to beat the Tories. Without that Labour would probably have held the seat with an increased majority.
    Would there have been nearly so much voting for the Liberal Democrats had Labour’s candidate not been batshit crazy and a nasty piece of work?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    RobD said:

    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    I know quite a few British people who have moved to other European countries during the pandemic for work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    eek said:

    You may wish to actually look at the actual formulas (say at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_formula ) rather than believing the lies the SNP continually repeat.

    The formulas are designed to keep everything consistent, so that whatever additional percentages was set years ago to cover the additional costs Scotland and co incur continue for ever. So if Scotland got £1.05 for every £1 in England, as England added £1, Scotland would get an extra £1.05....

    Now its possible that there are areas where Scotland receives less per capita than people in England do but given that Scotland loves to complain about how badly they are treated if any such situations actually existed we would hear about it every second of every minute of every hour of every day.
    They just put huge lumps of spending outside it to frig the system , pretty shit when you are trying to spin wikipedia , we are shat upon regularly despite having sent a very large surplus to England over last 40 years.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Nationalism is the same wherever you go. There isn't a warm and cuddly version. You're making a fatuous exception because you see the SNP as fellow travellers on Brexit and their attitude to the British Government.
    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Sandpit said:

    https://www.thenational.ae/uae/education/teachers-head-to-uae-to-take-up-new-jobs-as-schools-prepare-to-reopen-1.1061696
    Well it says there that they actually reduced overseas hires during the pandemic.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The eyebrow raising on the economic data on here is a bit strange.

    What effect do people expect from the mandatory closing of parts of the economy, along with extended house arrest and a powerful campaign of fear-spreading propaganda?

    The damage is enormous. COVID itself played a big part, of course, but so did these other things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    LadyG said:

    I cannot argue either point.

    I don't think Labour would have been better, mind you.

    As the article says, the virus has exposed deep systemic problems in the British political/intellectual Establishment. Groupthink. Laziness. Cowardice. Complacency. Basic stupidity.

    The entire machinery which runs the British state is rusted. From the scientists to the civil service. And our worship of the NHS does not help.
    You nailed it the other day with the comment about how having so much of the establishment processed through our elite private schools - and thus drawn from a narrow pool of the socially and financially advantaged - leads to mediocrity.

    Course you could have been just kidding - but we take what we can get.
  • kinabalu said:

    I'm with you on nationalism in general - I find it malign - but one must surely make an exception for movements such as the SNP and Catalonia where the goal is not "making XYZ great again" but creating XYZ in the first place.
    What's wrong with seeking to make your country great?

    That slogan has become associated with Trump who is malign, but he is malign not because of nationalism but because he is an ignorant, selfish extremist.
  • The eyebrow raising on the economic data on here is a bit strange.

    What effect do people expect from the mandatory closing of parts of the economy, along with extended house arrest and a powerful campaign of fear-spreading propaganda?

    The damage is enormous. COVID itself played a big part, of course, but so did these other things.

    No the damage is contained.

    The damage is enormous elsewhere, where the virus isn't contained and has gone wild. That containing a pandemic in a public health emergency ultimately improves the economy is not a new concept.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    @Malcolmg , @eek
    In the 80s Scotland definitely contributed more than its fair share with North Sea Oil revenues being UK revenue when the counterfactual of an independent Scotland would have most of that particular loot for itself.
    No idea on an overall basis from 1707 to present mind.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    The Tories have more than three seats in Scotland, and the Liberal Democrats have more than one.

    Similarly, the SNP do not have 54 seats (rather, 48).
    In reality it is unlikely the SNP would win 58 Wesminster seats. LDs very likely to hold at least Orkney & Shetland and I suspect Labour would exceed 20% in any early GE.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,846
    malcolmg said:

    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    It's very difficult for anyone to make a judgement about how benign something is when they're in the inside group. I've experienced plenty of anti-English 'racism' whilst I've been here (as well as of course some of the most polite and charming people I've ever met). I'm not going to cry into my soup about it, but I'm not going to label it as somehow heroic either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    In some cases leaving the UK, not just the employment market.
    I suspect that lot of the hospitality staff from the EU will be either on the way home shortly if not already.

    Our tourist industry does seem to be staffed by charming East Europeans, but I do wonder if it provides much domestic employment in places like London. I cannot recall the last time I was checked in by a non Pole.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    That was a pretty awesome peak of thunder. Never known the house actually shake before.

    Having got off lightly yesterday (where I could watch the lightning outside after sunset as Wolverhampton got it) I think we’re about to have payback here.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's previous average lead in North Carolina has evaporated according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html#polls

    The CNBC Change poll is a bit weird. It's a poll of 6 battle ground states (PA, MI, FL, AZ, NC, WI) which overall Biden is winning 48-44

    And in each of them where there is a Senate race the Dem Senate candidate is winning, in NC by 5 points.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Would there have been nearly so much voting for the Liberal Democrats had Labour’s candidate not been batshit crazy and a nasty piece of work?
    You have a point there - but the key dynamic was misleading polling data from early in the campaign which suggested the LD candidate - a Tory defector - was best placed to win. Without that, I am sure Labour would have won .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    RobD said:

    Well it says there that they actually reduced overseas hires during the pandemic.
    Because the schools have been closed since late January and the borders were shut for three months!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kinabalu said:

    Toss up on Betfair too. Biden the fav for this one but only just.
    I don't expect Biden to win NC.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    RobD said:

    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    We lost several EU doctors and nurses, who headed home.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    malcolmg said:

    Utter bollox and you have no excuse given you live in Scotland and should know how benign it is.
    Ah benign Scotland.

    SO benign, in fact, that it needs draconian hate speech laws far in excess of England to curb 'stirring up hatred'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    Who is moving overseas in the middle of a pandemic? :D
    Many EU citizens may have chosen to return home - especially those in hospitality.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Sandpit said:

    Because the schools have been closed since late January and the borders were shut for three months!
    So the net effect being there were fewer than in a normal year? That was sort of my point!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    ydoethur said:

    That was a pretty awesome peak of thunder. Never known the house actually shake before.

    Having got off lightly yesterday (where I could watch the lightning outside after sunset as Wolverhampton got it) I think we’re about to have payback here.

    I'm currently in between two storm cells, so there's thunder in all directions but not in my local area.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    The PM's office? Separate from his private office.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I know. That's the policy in the US as well.

    And - frankly - it sucks.

    I expect my children to own it when they do things wrong. My government should behave no worse that my kids.
    Is that setting the bar high or low?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    edited August 2020

    What's wrong with seeking to make your country great?

    That slogan has become associated with Trump who is malign, but he is malign not because of nationalism but because he is an ignorant, selfish extremist.
    Yes, Ok, the 24 hours are up.

    So it just depends. Nothing wrong with aspiring for great things for the country of which you are a citizen. Prosperity. Peace and harmony. Social justice. Winning the World Cup. All that good stuff.

    The problem arises when the population is invited to identify very intensely with their country in a manner which is loud and brittle and bombastic. With this comes complexes towards others, of either the inferiority or superiority type, with associated tell-tale sentiments such as "getting our country back" and "making it great again". Nostalgic sentimentalism, feeling "special" compared to others, the need to "win", as if international affairs were an egg and spoon race, all of that BAD stuff.

    And in practice I'm afraid that politicians who bang on about making their country great again - and their supporters - usually fall into the 2nd category.

    But there's no general rule for me. It's case by case. You give me a case in point and I'll tell you whether it's healthy or toxic.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    Pulpstar said:

    538's model has it going to Trump.
    And so do I as we speak.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    New thread.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MaxPB said:

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/august-2020-gdp-tracker#.XzP-6B7RbxM

    Sums it up better than I can at the moment. No access to data.
    You can compare easily their various forcasts: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publication-type/niesr-gdp-tracker

    it's quite a big upgrade, which surprises me personally. Today's results were within what I was expecting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    This thread has

    become a victim of tactical voting.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Yes I know that was point point. Foreign tourists come here and shower London / Edinburgh / Stratford with dollar. British holiday in the UK tourists are rushing out to buy tents. The loss of revenue in the economy will surely be large, massive in some areas.

    And ministers, a "staycation" is where you stay at home. A holiday in the UK is a holiday. You patronising out of touch fools.
    The meaning of the word has changed. Over here any holiday within a 3 hour drive is defined as a “staycation”
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,808
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, Ok, the 24 hours are up.

    So it just depends. Nothing wrong with aspiring for great things for the country of which you are a citizen. Prosperity. Peace and harmony. Social justice. Winning the World Cup. All that good stuff.

    The problem arises when the population is invited to identify very intensely with their country in a manner which is loud and brittle and bombastic. With this comes complexes towards others, of either the inferiority or superiority type, with associated tell-tale sentiments such as "getting our country back" and "making it great again". Nostalgic sentimentalism, feeling "special" compared to others, the need to "win", as if international affairs were an egg and spoon race, all of that BAD stuff.

    And in practice I'm afraid that politicians who bang on about making their country great again - and their supporters - usually fall into the 2nd category.

    But there's no general rule for me. It's case by case. You give me a case in point and I'll tell you whether it's healthy or toxic.
    As to the toxicity of those that always want to tell us how intolerant, xenophobic, idle, racist, bigotted, insignificant etc I could go on. Oh that is people like you and your tribe mainly isn't it. I think you need to go take a good look at your fellow travellers before attacking others for believing that this country isn't such a bad place and we will do just fine outside the eu.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Sandpit said:
    It's "Marie" in the story, though.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,825
    IshmaelZ said:

    Are you opposed to, say, Tibetan nationalism, or that of any of the countries of the USSR that weren't Russia? Is it wrong that Norway and Poland are countries? It seems to broad a category of things to be monolithically for or against.
    I agree you can't have iron rules on this. Case by case - but in general I'm more likely to be favourable to nationalist movements seeking to establish a new sovereign country than those seeking to radically change a country that is already established. That's the distinction I'm drawing. Not hard and fast but don't you think it's a meaningful distinction?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    It's very difficult for anyone to make a judgement about how benign something is when they're in the inside group. I've experienced plenty of anti-English 'racism' whilst I've been here (as well as of course some of the most polite and charming people I've ever met). I'm not going to cry into my soup about it, but I'm not going to label it as somehow heroic either.
    Lucky, exceedingly poor and sorry to hear that , to say the least, that you have suffered any anti-English racism. We certainly are not moron free for certain , but vast majority would have no truck with it, I certainly would not.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Ah benign Scotland.

    SO benign, in fact, that it needs draconian hate speech laws far in excess of England to curb 'stirring up hatred'.
    nutters have been let out now
This discussion has been closed.