politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pandemic: Millions of people in the north affected by new

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

"Data from a symptom tracker app run by King's College London and healthcare company ZOE also shows that levels have plateaued, with no sign of a second wave. Their figures – based on more than 13,000 swab tests – show symptomatic Covid-19 has been stable at around 2,000 cases a day for the past month."

Telegraph.

The Hancock and Johnson have panicked themselves into a situation where they need to have almost no cases of the virus to feel that things are ok imho.

I think they panicked when cases started rising again a few weeks ago.

IMO while cases are still in the hundreds that's no problem and helps boost herd immunity a little.

Carl Henegehan is saying that if this was flu outbreak we would be saying it is over now based on these low figures.

We are going to utterly destroy our economy and causes 10Ks of unnecessary deaths if we are not careful by allowing our government to panic.

Current infection rates are under 1% of what they were at the peak in March.

But they're at a much higher proportion of what was being reported back then because of the lack of testing we had then.

I wonder if that is confusing the government.

It would seem ridiculous but given the innumeracy of politicians its a possibility.

Yes, that is part of the problem in Leicester. We have saturation door to door testing of the assymptomatic, so a high pick up rate, but falling numbers in hospital. We now have only 21 inpatients with it, and LRI is now Covid-19 free, with all the cases at Glenfield hospital. This is about 10% of what we had in May. There has been no spike in admissions, or deaths, just diagnoses.

malcolmg said:

IanB2 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

Anyone know where we are now on Boris's "simple five point scale"? Or has that whole approach now been junked.

See my 850 post! 3 was the last update, not sure if it has increased since then as it doesnt seem to be published anywhere.

I am doing my best to stay alert but the govt not helping!

My guess is, that whole approach has been quietly shelved, now that we have so many different sets of fast moving rules.

Even the declared intention to have local lockdowns has been muddied now that Manchester has one set of rules and Leicester a different set entirely.

Think when you say "sets of fast moving rules" you really mean "panic measures by the barrow load" plucked out of either Bozo's, Hancock's, Gove's or Cumming's rear end

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

IanB2 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

Anyone know where we are now on Boris's "simple five point scale"? Or has that whole approach now been junked.

See my 850 post! 3 was the last update, not sure if it has increased since then as it doesnt seem to be published anywhere.

I am doing my best to stay alert but the govt not helping!

My guess is, that whole approach has been quietly shelved, now that we have so many different sets of fast moving rules.

Even the declared intention to have local lockdowns has been muddied now that Manchester has one set of rules and Leicester a different set entirely.

Think when you say "sets of fast moving rules" you really mean "panic measures by the barrow load" plucked out of either Bozo's, Hancock's, Gove's or Cumming's rear end

If, just hypothetically, we imagine a scenario where one evening someone in government suddenly discovers that Eid is imminent, worries that lots of Muslims getting together risks triggering a second wave and, after a series of increasingly panicked phone calls, Bozo takes a guess that they mostly live up north and, because government comms staff had gone home for the night, decides to make up a new set of rules on the spot punt and then them out on Twitter straight away....

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1289087344415592449

Andy Burnham seems quite happy with it

Based on what? Interesting that his tweet on the subject is prefaced with “our understanding is...” which doesn’t exactly fill you full of confidence.

https://twitter.com/andyburnhamgm/status/1288954894498574343?s=21

That tweet was last night and a far cry from his Sky interview this am

Well the details have been announced now!

What is with you guys being unable to accept any tiny amount of criticism of the government?

I can accept criticism and there is plenty to have a go at but ultimately this pandemic is changing by the minute and decisions are having to be made instantly.

The rules for a local pandemic could have been published a month ago, so any town that it applied to would know exactly what it meant?

Not really as the rules have to be specific and targetted.

Indeed, no one knew what would happen as restrictions were removed. Andy Burnham on BBC is very clear that this is about household gatherings.

The BBC presenter is incredulous at this, but unfortunately we’re to polite in this country to be clear about what the problem is.

Yep - it's very hard to say exactly what is going on without looking scarily racist (and that's just me looking at my own posts below).

The sad thing is that it's obvious if it was possible to bet on lock down areas Birmingham and Southall would be my next bets.

Although even the current areas say it's an bigger issue in Pakistani rather than Indian areas (Pakistanis are usually poorer as well for reasons that are too complex for this post)

It is to be hoped that an actual desire to save the lives of Muslims prevails, and political correctness and 'social cohesion' will move down the priority list...

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

IanB2 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

Anyone know where we are now on Boris's "simple five point scale"? Or has that whole approach now been junked.

See my 850 post! 3 was the last update, not sure if it has increased since then as it doesnt seem to be published anywhere.

I am doing my best to stay alert but the govt not helping!

My guess is, that whole approach has been quietly shelved, now that we have so many different sets of fast moving rules.

Even the declared intention to have local lockdowns has been muddied now that Manchester has one set of rules and Leicester a different set entirely.

Think when you say "sets of fast moving rules" you really mean "panic measures by the barrow load" plucked out of either Bozo's, Hancock's, Gove's or Cumming's rear end

If, just hypothetically, we imagine a scenario where one evening someone in government suddenly discovers that Eid is imminent, worries that lots of Muslims getting together risks triggering a second wave and, after a series of increasingly panicked phone calls, Bozo takes a guess that they mostly live up north and, because government comms staff had gone home for the night, decides to make up a new set of rules on the spot and then punt them out on Twitter straight away....

Luckyguy1983 said:

rural_voter said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

NerysHughes said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1289087344415592449

Andy Burnham seems quite happy with it

Based on what? Interesting that his tweet on the subject is prefaced with “our understanding is...” which doesn’t exactly fill you full of confidence.

https://twitter.com/andyburnhamgm/status/1288954894498574343?s=21

That tweet was last night and a far cry from his Sky interview this am

Well the details have been announced now!

What is with you guys being unable to accept any tiny amount of criticism of the government?

I can accept criticism and there is plenty to have a go at but ultimately this pandemic is changing by the minute and decisions are having to be made instantly.

The rules for a local pandemic could have been published a month ago, so any town that it applied to would know exactly what it meant?

Not really as the rules have to be specific and targetted.

Indeed, no one knew what would happen as restrictions were removed. Andy Burnham on BBC is very clear that this is about household gatherings.

The BBC presenter is incredulous at this, but unfortunately we’re to polite in this country to be clear about what the problem is.

Yep - it's very hard to say exactly what is going on without looking scarily racist (and that's just me looking at my own posts below).

The sad thing is that it's obvious if it was possible to bet on lock down areas Birmingham and Southall would be my next bets.

Although even the current areas say it's an bigger issue in Pakistani rather than Indian areas (Pakistanis are usually poorer as well for reasons that are too complex for this post)

It is to be hoped that an actual desire to save the lives of Muslims prevails, and political correctness and 'social cohesion' will move down the priority list...

We should start with vitamin D supplements for almost everybody north of latitude ~35N. People with darker skin may need to take it all year.

Swedish deaths are reportedly concentrated among Somali immigrants.

I quite agree, and have said so (with reference to those with darker skin) here.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

"Data from a symptom tracker app run by King's College London and healthcare company ZOE also shows that levels have plateaued, with no sign of a second wave. Their figures – based on more than 13,000 swab tests – show symptomatic Covid-19 has been stable at around 2,000 cases a day for the past month."

Telegraph.

The Hancock and Johnson have panicked themselves into a situation where they need to have almost no cases of the virus to feel that things are ok imho.

I think they panicked when cases started rising again a few weeks ago.

IMO while cases are still in the hundreds that's no problem and helps boost herd immunity a little.

Carl Henegehan is saying that if this was flu outbreak we would be saying it is over now based on these low figures.

We are going to utterly destroy our economy and causes 10Ks of unnecessary deaths if we are not careful by allowing our government to panic.

Current infection rates are under 1% of what they were at the peak in March.

But they're at a much higher proportion of what was being reported back then because of the lack of testing we had then.

I wonder if that is confusing the government.

It would seem ridiculous but given the innumeracy of politicians its a possibility.

Yes, that is part of the problem in Leicester. We have saturation door to door testing of the assymptomatic, so a high pick up rate, but falling numbers in hospital. We now have only 21 inpatients with it, and LRI is now Covid-19 free, with all the cases at Glenfield hospital. This is about 10% of what we had in May. There has been no spike in admissions, or deaths, just diagnoses.

Does that mean that in a few weeks time you would expect to see a much lower level in Leicester than its surrounding as a lot of the unseen transmission will have been eliminated by quarantining the asymptomatic?

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Has Sweden had a far higher incidence of coronavirus in their population than we have?

If not, then I'm not sure they would be any closer to herd immunity than the UK, lockdown or no lockdown.

another_richard said:

IanB2 said:

malcolmg said:

IanB2 said:

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

Anyone know where we are now on Boris's "simple five point scale"? Or has that whole approach now been junked.

See my 850 post! 3 was the last update, not sure if it has increased since then as it doesnt seem to be published anywhere.

I am doing my best to stay alert but the govt not helping!

My guess is, that whole approach has been quietly shelved, now that we have so many different sets of fast moving rules.

Even the declared intention to have local lockdowns has been muddied now that Manchester has one set of rules and Leicester a different set entirely.

Think when you say "sets of fast moving rules" you really mean "panic measures by the barrow load" plucked out of either Bozo's, Hancock's, Gove's or Cumming's rear end

If, just hypothetically, we imagine a scenario where one evening someone in government suddenly discovers that Eid is imminent, worries that lots of Muslims getting together risks triggering a second wave and, after a series of increasingly panicked phone calls, Bozo takes a guess that they mostly live up north and, because government comms staff had gone home for the night, decides to make up a new set of rules on the spot and then punt them out on Twitter straight away....

That seems to be what happened.

I think the second Eid caught them unaware.

eek said:

I'll post this here as it shows how Bradford works

https://twitter.com/dresserman/status/1289113457036533762

philiph said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Can't meet indoors. Unless you are spending money like travelling or working or drinking in which case it's fine.

They genuinely don’t know what they are doing. The lack of clarity is inexcusable. All it will do is further undermine confidence in the government’s ability to manage the crisis, which in turn will make it less likely rules are followed.

Andy Burnham 100% on same page as HMG and Hancock on Sky just now making it difficult for labour to attack the decision or communications without being contradicting Burnham

So what? It’s utterly shambolic. The lockdown may well be necessary - but if it is introduced in a way that causes confusion - and it undoubtedly has - it will not be effective. That is the point here.

Burnham seems clear and of course it is complex, but criticising for it's own sake is not beneficial to anyone

Thank God Burnham is clear. The government hasn’t been. The government deserves criticism because the government is not performing. The government is not performing because too many people in it are not up to the job. Because of that our response to the pandemic has been nowhere near good enough.

And hindsight is a great thing as Sturgeon says when coming under criticism

Hindsight is only great if you learn from it. This government fails on that front, too. No hindsight was needed to know that a government assembled solely on the basis of unswerving loyalty to an inadequate leader would not be best positioned to tackle a deadly pandemic. In any case, you are attacking Starmer for reacting negatively to a completely botched government communication. No hindsight was involved.

Looks like an effective annoncement as everyone is talking about it.

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

I'll post this here as it shows how Bradford works

https://twitter.com/dresserman/status/1289113457036533762

A quick look on google shows thats a walk in test centre and there is a drive thru test centre 1km away.

NerysHughes said:

nichomar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

"Data from a symptom tracker app run by King's College London and healthcare company ZOE also shows that levels have plateaued, with no sign of a second wave. Their figures – based on more than 13,000 swab tests – show symptomatic Covid-19 has been stable at around 2,000 cases a day for the past month."

Telegraph.

The Hancock and Johnson have panicked themselves into a situation where they need to have almost no cases of the virus to feel that things are ok imho.

I think they panicked when cases started rising again a few weeks ago.

IMO while cases are still in the hundreds that's no problem and helps boost herd immunity a little.

Carl Henegehan is saying that if this was flu outbreak we would be saying it is over now based on these low figures.

We are going to utterly destroy our economy and causes 10Ks of unnecessary deaths if we are not careful by allowing our government to panic.

Current infection rates are under 1% of what they were at the peak in March.

But they're at a much higher proportion of what was being reported back then because of the lack of testing we had then.

I wonder if that is confusing the government.

It would seem ridiculous but given the innumeracy of politicians its a possibility.

Yes, that is part of the problem in Leicester. We have saturation door to door testing of the assymptomatic, so a high pick up rate, but falling numbers in hospital. We now have only 21 inpatients with it, and LRI is now Covid-19 free, with all the cases at Glenfield hospital. This is about 10% of what we had in May. There has been no spike in admissions, or deaths, just diagnoses.

Does that mean that in a few weeks time you would expect to see a much lower level in Leicester than its surrounding as a lot of the unseen transmission will have been eliminated by quarantining the asymptomatic?

Not really, because there is hardly any coronavirus outside the city either.

Do you think the the virus has lost some of its potency?
We are at 5 -6K cases postive tests per week and whilst many will be asymptomatic the number of people in hospital nationally is contunuing to fall quickly.

Clearly a different profile occurring in Spain compared to the first series of infections, lower average age, much lower hospital admissions, few moving to ICU and lower death rates (as it stands at the moment),this may all link to the lower age profile of course.

Are older people still isolating?

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Absolutely. I dislike Twitter in general but it serves its job here. It's like a noticeboard permanently observed by the media.

I don't get any news from Twitter directly. I get a lot from people here, on the general media sharing stuff from there.

Within minutes of this getting Tweeted out it was on Sky News, I saw it on here and my wife saw someone sharing it on Facebook.

Not sure what more people want for effective communication than having it be reported everywhere like that?

Luckyguy1983 said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/1288990810818654209?s=20

Attacks by elite Republicans on Trump help Trump most of the time. Bad idea. They've learnt nothing from 2016.

I wonder if Jeb Bush has thought through the full ramifications of the 'loser to a bad candidate is even more of a loser' theory, considering he's the loser to the loser.

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Has Sweden had a far higher incidence of coronavirus in their population than we have?

If not, then I'm not sure they would be any closer to herd immunity than the UK, lockdown or no lockdown.

geoffw said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Has Sweden had a far higher incidence of coronavirus in their population than we have?

If not, then I'm not sure they would be any closer to herd immunity than the UK, lockdown or no lockdown.

An important determinant of herd immunity is the behaviour of people wrt the virus. They could get there at a much lower incidence than we can because of that.

Nigelb said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/JebBush/status/1288990810818654209?s=20

Attacks by elite Republicans on Trump help Trump most of the time. Bad idea. They've learnt nothing from 2016.

I wonder if Jeb Bush has thought through the full ramifications of the 'loser to a bad candidate is even more of a loser' theory, considering he's the loser to the loser.

A Trump defeat is ideal for Jeb Bush as he can then run again in 2024 against Biden or his VP.

If Trump wins again Pence will likely be GOP nominee in 2024 and Jeb's chances of being President are likely gone for good and George P Bush would have to carry the torch forward

Which torch is that apart from a name?

HYUFD seems strangely fond of political dynasties (note also his close interest in the young Kennedy).
The chances of Jeb getting the nomination in four years time are, IMO, close to nil.

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

geoffw said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Has Sweden had a far higher incidence of coronavirus in their population than we have?

If not, then I'm not sure they would be any closer to herd immunity than the UK, lockdown or no lockdown.

An important determinant of herd immunity is the behaviour of people wrt the virus. They could get there at a much lower incidence than we can because of that.

I don't understand that I'm afraid.

The effective reproduction rate of the virus depends on the characteristics of the population it is infecting. One aspect of that is how people typically behave - e.g. habitual social proximity, loud or quiet talking, much talk or little talk etc. In these regards the Swedes are different from us and more conducive to lower Rt and so quicker achievement of herd immunity.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Cyclefree said:

nichomar said:

I’m afraid I had a slight chuckle listening to tory MPs claiming their area should be excluded because their are was lower than the others. I didn’t hear them calling for those areas in Spain with lower infection rates to be excluded from the travel quarantine requirements.

It’s difficult for them to come straight out and say it’s to stop multi family Eid celebrations happening tonight and over the weekend, that’s why all the boroughs are included so it doesn’t look so targeted. How will they police it?

If that is the reason, then they should say so clearly. Stop treating Muslims like fools or babies. They no more want to die of or catch this disease than anyone else. Explain that in order to protect themselves and others the traditional way of celebrating Eid will have to be curbed this year, in just the same way that Christians have been unable to receive the Sacraments or worship as normal. Say that this is an emergency and the more people comply and the sooner, the quicker the restrictions can be lifted.

Stop tiptoeing around because of the fear of being called a racist or whatever. That is not just daft but dangerous in such times.

Oh - and when you make the announcement, make sure that the actual rules are actually published and not 8 hours later. Breach of these rules is a criminal offence. It is unconscionable in a Parliamentary democracy that criminal offences should be created without anyone knowing, or being able to find out, what they are.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

After an election it is the winner's manifesto e.g. "Vote No to keep Scotland in the EU" that is tested, not the loser's.

Most Scottish Leave voters voted SNP in 2015

So?

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

StuartDickson said:

... A presentation was also reportedly made last week to Downing Street which included very unfavorable internal polling.

... The broader context of Carlaw’s resignation is the disarray the pro-Union side finds itself in nine months before the Holyrood election.

The Scottish Tories, the supposed standard bearers of unionism, find themselves rudderless, while a growing number of figures are calling on “invisible” Richard Leonard to stand down as Labour leader.

Sturgeon’s poll ratings, by contrast, are soaring...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jackson-carlaw-conservative-leader-resigned-22445144.amp

It was a bit unlucky for you that Alex- "Russia Today"-Salmond played the "once in a lifetime" referendum a bit too early wasn't it? When he used that phrase, do you think it was a Putin type propaganda lie, or does he have a completely different understanding of the word "generation", or perhaps even the word "once"?

After an election it is the winner's manifesto e.g. "Vote No to keep Scotland in the EU" that is tested, not the loser's.

Most Scottish Leave voters voted SNP in 2015

So?

Brexit has made little difference to independence polling, the highest percentage of Remain voters from any of the main Scottish parties was in the Scottish LDs, plenty of Scottish nationalists are also anti EU e.g. Jim Sillars

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

"Data from a symptom tracker app run by King's College London and healthcare company ZOE also shows that levels have plateaued, with no sign of a second wave. Their figures – based on more than 13,000 swab tests – show symptomatic Covid-19 has been stable at around 2,000 cases a day for the past month."

Telegraph.

The Hancock and Johnson have panicked themselves into a situation where they need to have almost no cases of the virus to feel that things are ok imho.

I think they panicked when cases started rising again a few weeks ago.

IMO while cases are still in the hundreds that's no problem and helps boost herd immunity a little.

Carl Henegehan is saying that if this was flu outbreak we would be saying it is over now based on these low figures.

We are going to utterly destroy our economy and causes 10Ks of unnecessary deaths if we are not careful by allowing our government to panic.

Current infection rates are under 1% of what they were at the peak in March.

But they're at a much higher proportion of what was being reported back then because of the lack of testing we had then.

I wonder if that is confusing the government.

It would seem ridiculous but given the innumeracy of politicians its a possibility.

Yes, that is part of the problem in Leicester. We have saturation door to door testing of the assymptomatic, so a high pick up rate, but falling numbers in hospital. We now have only 21 inpatients with it, and LRI is now Covid-19 free, with all the cases at Glenfield hospital. This is about 10% of what we had in May. There has been no spike in admissions, or deaths, just diagnoses.

Does that mean that in a few weeks time you would expect to see a much lower level in Leicester than its surrounding as a lot of the unseen transmission will have been eliminated by quarantining the asymptomatic?

Not really, because there is hardly any coronavirus outside the city either.

Given the probable cost in lives of it going exponential again, I think that going in early and heavy is justified.

Scott_xP said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

This approach might work if, and only if, the policy is complete, and coherent, and not an omnishambles.

Hancock was the radio this morning contradicting his own "very clear guidelines"

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1289108042894790656

Northern_Al said:

Cyclefree said:

nichomar said:

I’m afraid I had a slight chuckle listening to tory MPs claiming their area should be excluded because their are was lower than the others. I didn’t hear them calling for those areas in Spain with lower infection rates to be excluded from the travel quarantine requirements.

It’s difficult for them to come straight out and say it’s to stop multi family Eid celebrations happening tonight and over the weekend, that’s why all the boroughs are included so it doesn’t look so targeted. How will they police it?

If that is the reason, then they should say so clearly. Stop treating Muslims like fools or babies. They no more want to die of or catch this disease than anyone else. Explain that in order to protect themselves and others the traditional way of celebrating Eid will have to be curbed this year, in just the same way that Christians have been unable to receive the Sacraments or worship as normal. Say that this is an emergency and the more people comply and the sooner, the quicker the restrictions can be lifted.

Stop tiptoeing around because of the fear of being called a racist or whatever. That is not just daft but dangerous in such times.

Oh - and when you make the announcement, make sure that the actual rules are actually published and not 8 hours later. Breach of these rules is a criminal offence. It is unconscionable in a Parliamentary democracy that criminal offences should be created without anyone knowing, or being able to find out, what they are.

Yes. I suspect a key issue here is that a lot of older, more vulnerable Muslims would attend Eid celebrations if they were held, with obvious consequences. By contrast, pubs, especially busy ones, are currently being attended by mainly younger people, who if they get the virus are less likely to suffer too badly. This shouldn't be too hard for the government to explain.

It looks to me as if infections are indeed rising, but the death rate isn't because most older/vulnerable people are still being very cautious; the young less so. This is why Eid celebrations are potentially a dangerous vector. Eid celebrations at the end of Ramadan were severely curtailed by lockdown, and guidance was followed.

Government should have foreseen this earlier and liaised with Muslim community leaders to curtail today's Eid get-togethers, long before last night.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

Absolutely. I dislike Twitter in general but it serves its job here. It's like a noticeboard permanently observed by the media.

I don't get any news from Twitter directly. I get a lot from people here, on the general media sharing stuff from there.

Within minutes of this getting Tweeted out it was on Sky News, I saw it on here and my wife saw someone sharing it on Facebook.

Not sure what more people want for effective communication than having it be reported everywhere like that?

Yeah because it is not like HMG has contact details for news organisations, or sends press releases umpteen times a day.

kinabalu said:

BannedinnParis said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If, hypothetically, you were a government minister who has made a decision late in the evening which you wanted to disseminate to the public extremely fast, could you think of a better way of doing it than using Twitter, which every journalist in the country would soon pick up, either directly or through re-tweets, and report?

I am enjoying the stones on people saying they've moved too rapidly.

Air of panic though. Hancock's voice was cracking on the radio this morning.

Cyclefree said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/bricks-mortar/welcome-to-beijing-on-thames-chinas-super-rich-buy-up-prime-london-vpc9x0h7k

Do you think we’ll learn the lessons of the ISC’s Russia report about why letting in the people and money from an aggressive and authoritarian state is not a good idea?

Me neither.

geoffw said:

TOPPING said:

geoffw said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

It's a good thing Greater Manchester has a mayor. The need for differential policy implementation as whack-a-mole hotspots arise has become quite evident. We are going to have to get used to sub-national imposition and lifting of lockdowns as the epidemic evolves.

Or, we follow Sweden, and learn to live with the virus with 'soft' lockdown that does not destroy our economy and way of life.

Not sure we can do that. Swedes are different from us in their social and inter-personal behaviour which is what determines the evolution of the epidemic. They also tend to have a uniform view of the problem and policies, at least compared to us. It seems they may get to 'herd immunity' fairly soon without a vaccine. Meanwhile we'll have to wait for a vaccine and manage the spread by local lock-downs. The more sharply focussed they are the better, ideally down to neighbourhood watch levels.

Has Sweden had a far higher incidence of coronavirus in their population than we have?

If not, then I'm not sure they would be any closer to herd immunity than the UK, lockdown or no lockdown.

An important determinant of herd immunity is the behaviour of people wrt the virus. They could get there at a much lower incidence than we can because of that.

I don't understand that I'm afraid.

The effective reproduction rate of the virus depends on the characteristics of the population it is infecting. One aspect of that is how people typically behave - e.g. habitual social proximity, loud or quiet talking, much talk or little talk etc. In these regards the Swedes are different from us and more conducive to lower Rt and so quicker achievement of herd immunity.

Seriously? What Swedes have you been around?

Plenty.

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

TOPPING said:

Gallowgate said:

The Government should have reached out to Muslim leaders in Greater Manchester etc and collaborated on a set of agreed policies and messaging in order to control COVID-19 spread during Eid, in my opinion.

EDIT: I see @Foxy got there first with this suggestion.

Not that we're wrong but I'm interested to see that the PB collective wisdom has determined with seemingly no doubt whatsoever that the new lockdown is entirely the fault of Muslims.