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Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.0 -
I also think she's mistaken in arguing we should "clear" the virus and have "COVID-free Britain" - the only way you can do that is to stop all international travel. In Guernsey the CMO has been very clear - the best we can do is "suppress" the virus - now no known cases in over two months - but it will be back. If you think you've "cleared" it you're in for a nasty surprise and may not be ready for its return.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think you are right.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.0 -
The three in Wales are linked to two meat processing plants I believe.CarlottaVance said:
The city has the fourth highest rate of positive cases in the UK per 100,000 people, which has been attributed to a high volume of testing by NHS Tayside.sarissa said:
Dundee infection rate has been minimal for a month - do try to keep up.CarlottaVance said:COVID in Dundee, that well known Borders town:
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/1417148/dundee-has-fourth-highest-rate-coronavirus-in-the-uk-sparking-calls-for-full-testing-information-to-be-revealed/
As testing in other areas has increased, the city continues to have one of the highest numbers of total cases.
Dundee has the highest rate in Scotland and fourth in the UK, behind only Merthyr Tydfil, Denbighshire, and Rhondda Cynon Taf – all in Wales.0 -
Absolutely not! Anything that works in Scotland is the work of the Scottish Government; anything that goes wrong in Scotland is the work of the ̶E̶v̶i̶l̶ ̶E̶n̶g̶l̶i̶s̶h̶ British Government. This proves that devolution is a red herring and only independence will sufficetlg86 said:
Arguably it's good news for unionists - it shows the devolution works.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:
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On May 8th I put a bet on the Tories to win most seats at the next GE at odds of 1.79... forgot about it and noticed it today thinking, blimey I bet that's well offside now with all that's happened since.. Durham, BLM, calamity after calamity, Sir Keir finding it impossible to put a knee wrong....
1.81-1.82 now0 -
Just back from Trump's Tulsa rally also attended by at least two high profile Coronavirus positive people (don Trump Jr's girfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle and Herman Cain).Andy_JS said:0 -
Not SDNY -which is federal - but New York State courts different kettle of fish.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.
As Trump pardoning himself, not sure SCOTUS majority would agree. Makes me wonder IF the Federalist Papers or Madison's Journal shed any light on what the Founders might have thought.0 -
Call the National Enquirer - they're good at 'Catch and ..' oh, maybe not.ydoethur said:I‘ve just spent a bizarre ten minutes trying to grab my neighbour’s pussy.
Er, that is, pussycat, which had decided to escape and run under my shed.1 -
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.0 -
That makes it worse. Never complain, never explainCarlottaVance said:1 -
He looks a bit peeky in the picture.logical_song said:
Just back from Trump's Tulsa rally also attended by at least two high profile Coronavirus positive people (don Trump Jr's girfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle and Herman Cain).Andy_JS said:1 -
I stand corrected, I didn't realise that was federal.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Not SDNY -which is federal - but New York State courts different kettle of fish.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.
As Trump pardoning himself, not sure SCOTUS majority would agree. Makes me wonder IF the Federalist Papers or Madison's Journal shed any light on what the Founders might have thought.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_District_Court_for_the_Southern_District_of_New_York0 -
AND never dash off a tweet. Or an email.LadyG said:
That makes it worse. Never complain, never explainCarlottaVance said:0 -
Off topic. Well, it has only taken 4 months, but we received our first supermarket home delivery this evening.
Thank goodness that other suppliers have been more forthcoming.0 -
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Very useful data - thank you for posting. Only 22 lab confirmed cases in this district since the start of June, and just four in the last fortnight, which is reassuring.Malmesbury said:UK case number - 624
England regional case data (Pillar 1 & 2) - by specimen date.
As ever the last 3-5 days are subject to revision. last 5 days included for completeness
0 -
She deleted the tweet and not that many people noticed the originalSeaShantyIrish2 said:
AND never dash off a tweet. Or an email.LadyG said:
That makes it worse. Never complain, never explainCarlottaVance said:
Now, by repeating the idiotic thing she said, she has fuelled the fire and made everyone notice all over again. And she didn't even get the spelling right, she was so desperate to bang out her apology
Everything she says from here on will be viewed through the prism of her being a Nat shill and pro-indy.
Which is a bad place to be for a "neutral" scientist.0 -
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.0 -
In US federal court system, districts are named not for the city where they are located, but rather as "Southern District of New York", "Western District of Washington", etc.logical_song said:
I stand corrected, I didn't realise that was federal.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Not SDNY -which is federal - but New York State courts different kettle of fish.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.
As Trump pardoning himself, not sure SCOTUS majority would agree. Makes me wonder IF the Federalist Papers or Madison's Journal shed any light on what the Founders might have thought.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_District_Court_for_the_Southern_District_of_New_York
RE: SDNY, note that Trumpsky recently fired the US DA - for doing his job too well.0 -
Also, THIS
https://twitter.com/VeritatemPande/status/1279492397873971201?s=20
She's dug an even deeper hole by not apologising for the argument itself0 -
She’s not a bat, she’s a nit.LadyG said:
She deleted the tweet and not that many people noticed the originalSeaShantyIrish2 said:
AND never dash off a tweet. Or an email.LadyG said:
That makes it worse. Never complain, never explainCarlottaVance said:
Now, by repeating the idiotic thing she said, she has fuelled the fire and made everyone notice all over again. And she didn't even get the spelling right, she was so desperate to bang out her apology
Everything she says from here on will be viewed through the prism of her being a Nat shill and pro-indy.
Which is a bad place to be for a "neutral" scientist.
Edit - that should have been ‘she’s not a nat, she’s a nit.’ Autocorrect is behaving really strangely.0 -
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done0 -
Article in the Times today saying that the consensus behind NZ's decision to lock the borders is fracturing due to the increasing economic cost re tourism and students and the substantial rise in unemployment as a result.CarlottaVance said:
I also think she's mistaken in arguing we should "clear" the virus and have "COVID-free Britain" - the only way you can do that is to stop all international travel. In Guernsey the CMO has been very clear - the best we can do is "suppress" the virus - now no known cases in over two months - but it will be back. If you think you've "cleared" it you're in for a nasty surprise and may not be ready for its return.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The whole point is that, in 2016 the mass of anti-Trump GOPers did NOT vote for Hillary, instead they voted Libertarian, wrote-in a conservative, or skipped the Presidential race entirely, which is why falloff (people casting ballots but skipping race) was higher than normal for president.Philip_Thompson said:
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.
BUT this year,these same voters are being urged - by their own leaders - to vote for Biden. THAT's a very critical difference.0 -
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done0 -
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike1 -
Natural for patience to wear thin - but don't you think New Zealand is a rather special case? My guess is most NZers think they've got Covid-19 licked. NOT the case in US & UK.humbugger said:
Article in the Times today saying that the consensus behind NZ's decision to lock the borders is fracturing due to the increasing economic cost re tourism and students and the substantial rise in unemployment as a result.CarlottaVance said:
I also think she's mistaken in arguing we should "clear" the virus and have "COVID-free Britain" - the only way you can do that is to stop all international travel. In Guernsey the CMO has been very clear - the best we can do is "suppress" the virus - now no known cases in over two months - but it will be back. If you think you've "cleared" it you're in for a nasty surprise and may not be ready for its return.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Well, exactly. New Zealand desperately needs a vaccine or their economy will simply collapse. Because you cannot quarantine a country forever, just as people cannot stay indoors foreverhumbugger said:
Article in the Times today saying that the consensus behind NZ's decision to lock the borders is fracturing due to the increasing economic cost re tourism and students and the substantial rise in unemployment as a result.CarlottaVance said:
I also think she's mistaken in arguing we should "clear" the virus and have "COVID-free Britain" - the only way you can do that is to stop all international travel. In Guernsey the CMO has been very clear - the best we can do is "suppress" the virus - now no known cases in over two months - but it will be back. If you think you've "cleared" it you're in for a nasty surprise and may not be ready for its return.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:
And if/when NZ re-opens, the country will get the virus. It is remorseless and inexorable, the one advantage they'll have gained is better treatments, but they will also have zero immunity0 -
The Proprietor said "broadly". AND have yez every heard of "blip on the radar screen"? Sometimes means something, but usually not.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike0 -
Mini LD surge....
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1279494148568035328?s=190 -
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
Today was a big chance to show he was one of the lads and not a boring dweeb, as the pubs opened for the first time since March... so he tweeted a picture of him having his hair washed0 -
If the Lib Dems went up by 4 I believe our Delightful Host would see fit to mention it. 4 is a definite shiftSeaShantyIrish2 said:
The Proprietor said "broadly". AND have yez every heard of "blip on the radar screen"? Sometimes means something, but usually not.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
But yes it could still be noise. But we like to discuss polling noise on here. Tis a thing we do1 -
Given they are only £50 I bet he did. Alternatively he could be like me and have been given one for free.tlg86 said:
They're paying for them, I doubt Nige paid for his.isam said:
All the footballers playing the Prem are being tested twice a week without any symptoms arent they?tlg86 said:Interesting that Farage says he's had a test. I wonder how he got that and in what circumstances.
Everyones talking about Nige in the pub with a pint.. he plays his enemies like a fiddle0 -
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity0 -
Funnily enough I have almost identical odds on a bet from just after the last election. I reckon the odds now are pretty much fair, the ones before were value but we've been unlucky. Long way to go, of course.isam said:On May 8th I put a bet on the Tories to win most seats at the next GE at odds of 1.79... forgot about it and noticed it today thinking, blimey I bet that's well offside now with all that's happened since.. Durham, BLM, calamity after calamity, Sir Keir finding it impossible to put a knee wrong....
1.81-1.82 now0 -
Even IF -4 is for real, it would still be worth taking short-term hit (presumably from left-wingers) in return for long-term gain (with swing voters).LadyG said:
If the Lib Dems went up by 4 I believe our Delightful Host would see fit to mention it. 4 is a definite shiftSeaShantyIrish2 said:
The Proprietor said "broadly". AND have yez every heard of "blip on the radar screen"? Sometimes means something, but usually not.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
But yes it could still be noise. But we like to discuss polling noise on here. Tis a thing we do0 -
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.2 -
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.1 -
I hear yez, Lady!LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.0 -
So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).0 -
I thought for a moment you meant his pint, and I was making a mental note never to drink in Kent.Richard_Tyndall said:
Given they are only £50 I bet he did. Alternatively he could be like me and have been given one for free.tlg86 said:
They're paying for them, I doubt Nige paid for his.isam said:
All the footballers playing the Prem are being tested twice a week without any symptoms arent they?tlg86 said:Interesting that Farage says he's had a test. I wonder how he got that and in what circumstances.
Everyones talking about Nige in the pub with a pint.. he plays his enemies like a fiddle2 -
You are meant to go to the Pub, as Boris and Rishi requested. Do your duty.LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.0 -
I'm in London and most of the pubs are still shut. I just went out and had a lookhumbugger said:
You are meant to go to the Pub, as Boris and Rishi requested. Do your duty.LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.0 -
It's a trade-off isn't it? Scotland could potentially achieve the same benefits as New Zealand but that means no foreign visitors for their tourist industry or students for their higher education sector, save for the few who have the time, money and determination to go there to go to spend a fortnight in a quarantine facility. There are no easy choices available to them.humbugger said:
Article in the Times today saying that the consensus behind NZ's decision to lock the borders is fracturing due to the increasing economic cost re tourism and students and the substantial rise in unemployment as a result.CarlottaVance said:
I also think she's mistaken in arguing we should "clear" the virus and have "COVID-free Britain" - the only way you can do that is to stop all international travel. In Guernsey the CMO has been very clear - the best we can do is "suppress" the virus - now no known cases in over two months - but it will be back. If you think you've "cleared" it you're in for a nasty surprise and may not be ready for its return.RobD said:
So she still thinks that Unionists are angry that there are less deaths in Scotland? Bizarre.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Not in soho or borough market lots of people out no social distancing no mask already staggering a bitLadyG said:
I'm in London and most of the pubs are still shut. I just went out and had a lookhumbugger said:
You are meant to go to the Pub, as Boris and Rishi requested. Do your duty.LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.
Sky New web site0 -
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.0 -
Very odd differences across London then!nichomar said:
Not in soho or borough market lots of people out no social distancing no mask already staggering a bitLadyG said:
I'm in London and most of the pubs are still shut. I just went out and had a lookhumbugger said:
You are meant to go to the Pub, as Boris and Rishi requested. Do your duty.LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.
Sky New web site
TBH I fear some of the pubs around here will be shut for good
0 -
It could be that random noise had him higher than his true level of support last time and random noise has now swung the other way - while nothing has really changed.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
After all, most people are not paying attention most of the time.0 -
I'm saying it could be a bigger difference than you said. If the voters who could have been neverTrump simply ended up backing Trump afterall because they weren't willing to waste their vote and weren't backing Hillary then they're in the Trump column last time.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole point is that, in 2016 the mass of anti-Trump GOPers did NOT vote for Hillary, instead they voted Libertarian, wrote-in a conservative, or skipped the Presidential race entirely, which is why falloff (people casting ballots but skipping race) was higher than normal for president.Philip_Thompson said:
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.
BUT this year,these same voters are being urged - by their own leaders - to vote for Biden. THAT's a very critical difference.
If they switch to Biden this time that's an actual -2 this time.0 -
Why don't you, Sean, Eadric and Byronic all go down the pub together?LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.3 -
That is a fair point. Clinton was equal with Obama, Trump up by over 2m on Romney but the main increase was third party candidates. My gut feel is that the third party vote is probably not so strong this year because you do not have relatively high profile candidates. So the question is whether the never Trumpers stay at home or actually commit to Biden. Hard to say. Polling (sigh) suggests that Trump retains more support of Republicans than Biden does of Democrats.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole point is that, in 2016 the mass of anti-Trump GOPers did NOT vote for Hillary, instead they voted Libertarian, wrote-in a conservative, or skipped the Presidential race entirely, which is why falloff (people casting ballots but skipping race) was higher than normal for president.Philip_Thompson said:
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.
BUT this year,these same voters are being urged - by their own leaders - to vote for Biden. THAT's a very critical difference.
0 -
Long experience has taught me not to bother interrupting when the Yoons think they have their latest dud silver bullet (13 years' worth and counting). Keeps the wee souls occupied.sarissa said:
Dundee infection rate has been minimal for a month - do try to keep up.CarlottaVance said:COVID in Dundee, that well known Borders town:
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/dundee/1417148/dundee-has-fourth-highest-rate-coronavirus-in-the-uk-sparking-calls-for-full-testing-information-to-be-revealed/0 -
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.1 -
Well, Gov Lujan Grisham made the top 3 on my own VP list (does anyone have Joe's number handy?) Has been NM Gov for less than a year, but served 3 terms in US House. Would be helpful to Biden with Hispanic voters in NM and AZ among other states, and with appeal to non-Hispanics in western states (note that in this context NM is more Western than CA, just as GA is more Southern than FL).MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
As for polls, you have a point. Certainly helps keep yours truly's feet on the ground.0 -
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama2 -
I am delighted to announce the morning thread features a discussion about the alternative vote system.1
-
That has been my logic re Lujan, SeaShanty. Doesn't mean it is right and / or Biden will see it the same way but I think at 33/1 given she is the leading Hispanic candidate, it is well worth a punt.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Well, Gov Lujan Grisham made the top 3 on my own VP list (does anyone have Joe's number handy?) Has been NM Gov for less than a year, but served 3 terms in US House. Would be helpful to Biden with Hispanic voters in NM and AZ among other states, and with appeal to non-Hispanics in western states (note that in this context NM is more Western than CA, just as GA is more Southern than FL).MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
As for polls, you have a point. Certainly helps keep yours truly's feet on the ground.1 -
Some of those Democrats are like Catholics - or Anglicans - who never go to church, not even on Christmas or Easter. Don't want to call themselves Republicans but that's how they vote, esp. at top of ticket.MrEd said:
That is a fair point. Clinton was equal with Obama, Trump up by over 2m on Romney but the main increase was third party candidates. My gut feel is that the third party vote is probably not so strong this year because you do not have relatively high profile candidates. So the question is whether the never Trumpers stay at home or actually commit to Biden. Hard to say. Polling (sigh) suggests that Trump retains more support of Republicans than Biden does of Democrats.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole point is that, in 2016 the mass of anti-Trump GOPers did NOT vote for Hillary, instead they voted Libertarian, wrote-in a conservative, or skipped the Presidential race entirely, which is why falloff (people casting ballots but skipping race) was higher than normal for president.Philip_Thompson said:
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.
BUT this year,these same voters are being urged - by their own leaders - to vote for Biden. THAT's a very critical difference.0 -
Yeah only political obsessives like me notice now, but I reckon the Tories will be ready to unleash that photo, alongside quotes from BLM, via the dark arts of the internet/journo buddies as and whenLadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity0 -
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer0 -
Well, quite:LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
https://twitter.com/CovidSkip/status/12779293129608642560 -
The last surge for BLM ended in an orgy of anti-Semitism from the BLM-ers and many people had to quickly step awayisam said:
Yeah only political obsessives like me notice now, but I reckon the Tories will be ready to unleash that photo, alongside quotes from BLM, via the dark arts of the internet/journo buddies as and whenLadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
Starmer needs to pray the same doesn't happen this time, which is quite an ask, as the movement has already been hijacked by hard lefties who are absolutely Ken Livingstone about Israel/Jews
Because then that photo will be a 7 ton albatross2 -
You have a strong group of people who want Trump out regardless and will vote Biden, ditto a large group who love Trump and what he stands for and will vote for him regardless. The result comes down to those who think about what is important and then make their decision. One of the reasons why I think Trump has a better chance than many expect is that (personal view) the waverers will decide on the day that he is the "safer" option from an economic / living standards standpoint. I also think the defund the Police issue will come to bite the Democrats back in the ass but that is just an opinion.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Some of those Democrats are like Catholics - or Anglicans - who never go to church, not even on Christmas or Easter. Don't want to call themselves Republicans but that's how they vote, esp. at top of ticket.MrEd said:
That is a fair point. Clinton was equal with Obama, Trump up by over 2m on Romney but the main increase was third party candidates. My gut feel is that the third party vote is probably not so strong this year because you do not have relatively high profile candidates. So the question is whether the never Trumpers stay at home or actually commit to Biden. Hard to say. Polling (sigh) suggests that Trump retains more support of Republicans than Biden does of Democrats.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
The whole point is that, in 2016 the mass of anti-Trump GOPers did NOT vote for Hillary, instead they voted Libertarian, wrote-in a conservative, or skipped the Presidential race entirely, which is why falloff (people casting ballots but skipping race) was higher than normal for president.Philip_Thompson said:
Its only -1 against Trump if the voter was prepared to vote Third Party or not vote. Speaking personally I'd never not vote and many people will never vote Third Party either so many of those inspired voters will have pinched their nose and voted Trump.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
In 2016 the Never Trumper GOP said, do NOT vote for Trumprottenborough said:
> net -1 against Trumpsky
In 2020 they are saying, you MUST vote for Biden
> net -2 against Trumpsky
You do the math.
By making the leap to 'vote for Biden' it transforms things completely. For someone who pinched their nose and voted Trump last time if they do vote for Biden that's a true -2.
BUT this year,these same voters are being urged - by their own leaders - to vote for Biden. THAT's a very critical difference.0 -
Virtue signalling is a very tempting, risk free stunt, usually.MrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.0 -
-
I think that’s the lowest Tory share for a while and would be a Hung Parliament0
-
It's ironic that the extreme left, who whine most about American imperialism when it suits them, have imported this woke totem from across the Atlantic unthinkingly.LadyG said:
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama0 -
Good point. How huge is the question. BJ/Tories are clearly singing from the DT/GOP hymnbook, and are sure to use this in serenading the Great (or is that Little?) British Public.LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
0 -
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over0 -
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over0 -
They might find they hate each other.Mexicanpete said:
Why don't you, Sean, Eadric and Byronic all go down the pub together?LadyG said:
Oh FFS. If Political Betting is not allowed to get obsessively over-interested in pathetically minor poll movements then what ARE we meant to do on a sad rainy Saturday evening?Richard_Tyndall said:
Worth bearing in mind that there are two possible factors here. One is margin of error but the other is just noise. Polls drift up and down a bit just because.LadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
I suspect that it is a combination of the two and unless it persists it will indicate absolutely diddly squat.3 -
The only question I have is where are the other 5% of voters - Brexit Party ?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
The polls are remarkably stable, now, given the volatility of the times: a crashing economy, mass unemployment, plague everywhere, war with China looming, the cancellation of David Starkey, my theory that Bob Dylan is slightly overratedCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was
Trump: 54%
Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
0 -
If nothing else, as a reclusive, 60 year old lesbian painter of axolotls, I fear I would find their laddish banter somewhat toxic, and, also, I could not keep up with their champagne billsLadyG said:
The polls are remarkably stable, now, given the volatility of the times: a crashing economy, mass unemployment, plague everywhere, war with China looming, the cancellation of David Starkey, my theory that Bob Dylan is slightly overratedCorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Yes brutal but quite effective in that it depicts a situation most Americans know about in real life - but instead of pressing #1 to speak to an operator about your bank bill (let's say), it's about a crimeHYUFD said:
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer0 -
I thought "read my lips, no new taxes" was the main reason George HW Bush won in 1988.HYUFD said:
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
As soon as he reneged on that pledge, he was in serious trouble.0 -
My point is that no one cares about the knee YETMexicanpete said:
Nobody cares about the knee, although it was a bit naff.LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama
Richard Tyndall has already explained about MoE and fluctuations. Besides which Boris has let you go down the pub and Starmer hasn't.
Add to that the fact we are four years out from a GE, it isn't worth getting so excited over
But if BLM goes mental and violent or is exposed as some horrible anti-Semitic nightmare, then that photo would be VERY awkward
He didn't need to do it. Pious words would have sufficed.
Besides, it's "naff" - as you say.
We should all use the word naff more often. It is sadly neglected1 -
It's an unresolved issue. But I think it would be a last resort because the federal courts have determined that accepting a pardon is admitting guilt, and if the pardon were deemed invalid, the admission would presumably still stand.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Not SDNY -which is federal - but New York State courts different kettle of fish.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.
As Trump pardoning himself, not sure SCOTUS majority would agree. Makes me wonder IF the Federalist Papers or Madison's Journal shed any light on what the Founders might have thought.0 -
As I said Alastair, and have been quite vocal on this, I question the polls - especially the state polls - because I don't trust them and they weren't accurate last time.Alistair said:For Covid case to death stats the Swedes have the average time from symptoms to ICU admission as 11 days.
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was
Trump: 54%
Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
Have you done a similar analysis eg on the polls showing a big Democratic lead in some of these states?0 -
Say LadyG, since yez have your ears on, IF you are inclined might want to check out "The Earl of Louisiana" by AJ Liebling, which is a partial biography and great slice of life featuring Huey Long's younger brother, Earl Long aka "Uncle Earl" who was also Governor of Louisiana.
Among other things noted for saying, "N_____s is people too!" in retorting deep-fried racist opponents in 1950s & early '60s. Also for firing director of state insane asylum who refused to release him. AND was played by Paul Newman of all people in the otherwise forgettable flick "Blaze" about Uncle Earl's fling with a stripper while serving as Governor (which is my his long-suffering wife, Miz Blanche, had him committed in the first place.
Only in Louisiana!0 -
God, American attack ads are good. On both sidesMrEd said:
Yes brutal but quite effective in that it depicts a situation most Americans know about in real life - but instead of pressing #1 to speak to an operator about your bank bill (let's say), it's about a crimeHYUFD said:
Shades of Bush Snr 's brutally effective Willie Horton attack ad on Dukakis in 1988 in that Trump ad saying Biden would defund the police and be soft on crime.MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
We have had the debate on here a few nights back re whether the defund the Police calls would play an impact in the election. Trump campaign seems to think so hence the latest advert,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNav5wO5dh0
Re the Democratic VP nominee, I tipped Michelle Lujan Grisham when she is 25/1. She has drifted out to 33/1 on Ladbrokes but I still think she represents value. Interestingly, the language around the VP nomination is that it has to be a "woman of color" not necessarily a black woman. As supposedly the only Hispanic candidate on Biden's shortlist, he may see her as an alternative to other candidates who have issues with their past (Harris, Demmings, Rice)) or who may be seen as too junior (Lance Bottoms - who would also face criticism of morale in the Atlanta Police Dept).
Dukakis had a big poll lead through most of the summer
The Lincoln Project ads assaulting the Donald are superbly vicious.
But yes, that is equally powerful, in return0 -
I'm liking the way your mind is working.Fishing said:
It's an unresolved issue. But I think it would be a last resort because the federal courts have determined that accepting a pardon is admitting guilt, and if the pardon were deemed invalid, the admission would presumably still stand.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Not SDNY -which is federal - but New York State courts different kettle of fish.logical_song said:
Trump may be able to pardon himself, but I think I read somewhere that a presidential pardon only applied to federal offences, so SDNY could still get him.Mexicanpete said:
It would be somewhat ironic if Bill Clinton finished his days in a Federal Penetentiary having notoriously ended his presidency by pardoning Marc Rich. You may recall Rich's notoriety was making the top spot as the USA's most wanted white collar criminal. I met Rich and his sidekick Pinky Green in their offices in Wigmore Street many decades ago.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Re: the Epstein - Maxwell scandal, speculation as to REALLY big fish seems to be focused on Bill Clinton, who is listed in (at least one) black book, though he's denied ever visiting "orgy island". But then, to quote Mandy Rice Davies, "well he would, wouldn't he?"
BUT methinks there maybe ANOTHER president - also noted for his overactive libido - who just might be caught up in this foul web: the president who appointed the US District Attorney who personally signed off on Epstein's sweetheart plea deal during Cheney-Bush administration - and who was appointed to the cabinet as Secretary of Labor in the next GOP administration.
NOTE that it appears VERY clear that the former DA and Labor Secretary, Alexander Acosta, is a prime target for federal investigators. Why? Because prosecution of La Maxwell is being handled NOT by sex crimes division of SDNY, but instead by the public corruption division.
Trump presumably can pardon himself.
As Trump pardoning himself, not sure SCOTUS majority would agree. Makes me wonder IF the Federalist Papers or Madison's Journal shed any light on what the Founders might have thought.0 -
Probably to whom it would be most important is the key question. Labour's core inner city vote would quite welcome it. Socially liberal LDs and pro-Remain Tories probably wouldn't mind it too much either. The problem for Starmer is that the photo is likely to be taken most negatively by the voters Labour needs to get back in the North and Midlands i.e. WWCSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Good point. How huge is the question. BJ/Tories are clearly singing from the DT/GOP hymnbook, and are sure to use this in serenading the Great (or is that Little?) British Public.LadyG said:
Yes, it was a huge risk. MisguidedMrEd said:
His biggest mistake was having that photo taken in the first place because it makes him a hostage to fortune. I'm surprised he did so. As a lawyer, I would have expected him to be wary of doing anything that could have been used against him as evidence in the future.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Think more than 10% may notice - but most will think it's a sign he is NOT a fool like Corbyn.LadyG said:
He was foolish to backtrack on his BLM statement. Now he just appears weak and flipfloippyisam said:
The first thing he has done that anyone has noticed is to make it clear that while he WAS taking sides in the culture war, he wouldn't go as far as to defund the police, smash up Brixton or be nasty to JewsLadyG said:
Tsk. You tell us 3 is MoE.MikeSmithson said:
All broadly within margin of error.LadyG said:
Interesting. I wonder why Starmer's down. His U-turn on BLM, or just the honeymoon easing?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I can't think of anything else he has said or done
-4 is not
Remember: a rogue poll is a poll whose results you dislike
First he takes the knee and he's Yay BLM, then he says No, BLM is just a moment and some of its ideas are nonsense, THEN he says Sorry I didn't mean that BLM is a defining moment hooray!
Pitiful, really.
I doubt more than 10% of the country noticed, but maybe enough did to dent his popularity
"A foolish consistency is the hobgobblin of small minds" - and hallmark of dumb politicos. Sure don't hear many - even on PB - saying that our Keir is a dummy.
Has any other major politician outside the USA "taken the knee"?
Why do it? You can easily shrug it off, as Boris did
America is different and is going through its own very personal psychodrama0 -
https://twitter.com/IWTheDarkPrince/status/1279495335409311744
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.0 -
Coalition of chaos!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/IWTheDarkPrince/status/1279495335409311744
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories0 -
American polling reporting is so shoddy it is often impossible to do so. Gravis must be commended for providing enough info to actually spot this.MrEd said:
As I said Alastair, and have been quite vocal on this, I question the polls - especially the state polls - because I don't trust them and they weren't accurate last time.Alistair said:For Covid case to death stats the Swedes have the average time from symptoms to ICU admission as 11 days.
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was
Trump: 54%
Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
Have you done a similar analysis eg on the polls showing a big Democratic lead in some of these states?
Often with American polls you get the headline figure and fuck all else. It is infuriating.0 -
This is why we should all be grateful for the British Polling Council.Alistair said:
American polling reporting is so shoddy it is often impossible to do so. Gravis must be commended for providing enough info to actually spot this.MrEd said:
As I said Alastair, and have been quite vocal on this, I question the polls - especially the state polls - because I don't trust them and they weren't accurate last time.Alistair said:For Covid case to death stats the Swedes have the average time from symptoms to ICU admission as 11 days.
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was
Trump: 54%
Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
Have you done a similar analysis eg on the polls showing a big Democratic lead in some of these states?
Often with American polls you get the headline figure and fuck all else. It is infuriating.2 -
https://twitter.com/samimousa86/status/1279494798920073216
Flavible prediction I was talking about.
Lab: 250
SNP: 58
LD: 7
PC: 4
Green: 1
SDLP 2 (?)
Wafer thin majority0 -
Sinn Fein would come to the Conservative Party's rescue by continuing their abstentionism at Westminster.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/IWTheDarkPrince/status/1279495335409311744
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Although the DUP might put Labour in power as revenge for Boris Johnson putting a border down the Irish Sea.1 -
See above, according to Flavible without DUP anti-Tories is 321, which is a technical majority? DUP would give a few seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sinn Fein would come to the Conservative Party's rescue by continuing their abstentionism at Westminster.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/IWTheDarkPrince/status/1279495335409311744
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories - prediction is based on one I saw above. Most likely Tories would carry on.
Although the DUP might put Labour in power as revenge for Boris Johnson putting a border down the Irish Sea.
Biggest mess of a Parliament for decades0 -
Except the second the English get wind of the fact the Scots may hold the balance of power they will vote to keep the SNP out. More or less why 2015 happened the way it did.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/samimousa86/status/1279494798920073216
Flavible prediction I was talking about.
Lab: 250
SNP: 58
LD: 7
PC: 4
Green: 1
SDLP 2 (?)
Wafer thin majority3 -
That's not a majority.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/samimousa86/status/1279494798920073216
Flavible prediction I was talking about.
Lab: 250
SNP: 58
LD: 7
PC: 4
Green: 1
SDLP 2 (?)
Wafer thin majority0 -
As opposed to administration of chaos we have now?RobD said:
Coalition of chaos!CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/IWTheDarkPrince/status/1279495335409311744
LD + Lab + SNP + SDLP + Greens would just be enough to lockout the Tories0 -
Had a look at the NY Time/Sienna Arizona poll as they provide decentish Cross TabsMrEd said:
As I said Alastair, and have been quite vocal on this, I question the polls - especially the state polls - because I don't trust them and they weren't accurate last time.Alistair said:For Covid case to death stats the Swedes have the average time from symptoms to ICU admission as 11 days.
Trump +4 in Arizona. Interesting, let me check the poll....MrEd said:So kind of on topic,
Past few state polls (although I question them) haven't been bad for Trump - +4 for Arizona and Texas and tie in Florida, although with Trafalgar. They may be outliers but probably welcome for him post-recent polls.
Very Interesting, it's by Gravis so non-partisan (infact 538 list them as having a tiny Dem skew) and just because it was commissioned by OAN doesn't mean the polling is bad.... Wait a minute hold the fucking phone what is this?
Stop. Collaborate. Listen. The Clinton-Trump split is not accurate. Trump won by 4 points (48-44) in 2016. This is their post demographic weighting. That is saying the 2016 result according to their sample was
Trump: 54%
Clinton: 38%
That's a humongous "skew".
Have you done a similar analysis eg on the polls showing a big Democratic lead in some of these states?
This was for a Biden+7 poll
They had a not quite as skewed but still-Trump heavy Trump 39, Clinton 29 past vote in their sample (but they are not clear if that is the pre or post weighted figures).
JFC, For some of the most interesting questions in the survey they don't break it down by either past or current vote choice. These utter wankers.
Look at this question - utter dynamite, no breakdown
1
This discussion has been closed.