politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive
Comments
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Well the rain is falling steadily in the North East. A chance for the Kippers to make gains on South Tyneside & Sunderland councils? I can't see them getting anywhere in Newcastle, Gateshead or North Tyneside. No locals for us in Co. Durham.
I'm not voting until this afternoon - definitely Green in an effort to push the LDs into 5th place. Ska for president!0 -
When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.0
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Bet that made you reach for google!!NickPalmer said:
You underestimate Guardian readers - had an enquiry just yesterday from a voter wavering between Labour and Green and asking about the overall balance and outlook in the EP.DavidL said:
Correct but all part of the delusions of the project. As if anyone, even Nick Clegg, would really give a monkeys about how they were voting in Spain, Italy, France...OldKingCole said:
It’s illegal to publish an exit poll for the Euros (or anything else) before the polls close. So nothing can be published until Sunday evening when voting closes in the last of our partner countries.OblitusSumMe said:
I don't know about exit polls, but Populus online will be running a poll this evening from the close of polls which they want rapid responses to, for almost immediate reporting.rogerh said:Is any polling company carrying out an exit poll on the Euros today?
It wouldn't change a single vote in this country, even if our press could be bothered to report it.0 -
I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.Pulpstar said:
I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?TheScreamingEagles said:Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.
On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.
Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury
Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training
Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury0 -
A big set of economic stats from ONS this morning, including:
• Public Sector Finances for April 2014
• Second Estimate of GDP for Q1 2014
• Index of Services for March 2014
• Business Investment Q1 2014 Provisional Results
Also releases on NEETS, Migration Statistics, and, GDP and the Labour Market.
Starting from the top, here are the Key Findings from the PSF Bulletin.
Poor another_richard. Whatever will he post about when George finally eliminates the deficit? It is certainly getting nearer every month as the good news in this bulletin shows.
This is the first estimate of April 2014 (financial year 2014/15) and the second for the financial year 2013/14. Both estimates will continue to be revised as more data becomes available.
• For the financial year 2013/14 public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £107.4 billion. This was £7.8 billion lower than in 2012/13, when it was £115.1 billion.
• During the financial year 2013/14, £31.1 billion was transferred from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. Of this amount, £12.2 billion impacted on net borrowing.
• For the financial year 2013/14, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £95.2 billion. This was £14.5 billion higher than in 2012/13, when it was £80.7 billion.
• In April 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £11.5 billion. This was £1.9 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £9.5 billion.
• In April 2014, £4.1 billion was transferred from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund to HM Treasury. In April 2013, £3.9 billion was transferred. Both transfers impacted on net borrowing.
• In April 2014, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSNB ex) was £7.4 billion. This was £1.7 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £5.6 billion.
• The central government net cash requirement for the financial year 2013/14 was £75.4 billion, £29.6 billion lower than in 2012/13, when it was £105.0 billion.
• At the end of April 2014, Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions (PSND ex) was £1,270.8 billion, equivalent to 75.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).0 -
These questions always seem so pointless when asked to the overall electorate. Those considering voting Conservative and also considering another party should be the denominator.TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes · 57m
26% of voters more inclined, 16% less inclined to vote Tory today because of Cam's commitment to hold EU referendum0 -
Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Tory of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. To me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake0
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Paranoid much?Socrates said:When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.
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That should be void shouldn't it Pulpstar?? They void it when the horse's are non-runners don't they?? (I genuinely don't know - I don't bet much on horses)0
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Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?state_go_away said:Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake
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Not "more legitimate", just that some people who decide to vote for AIFE will have done so for conscious reasons, rather than because they were mislead by an intention to deceive and confuse.Richard_Tyndall said:
As I have said before I do find it kind of ironic that the AIFE is being touted by some as a more legitimate anti_EU vote than UKIP and yet many of its candidates were thrown out of UKIP for just the sort of behaviour that UKIP is criticised for.foxinsoxuk said:Of course there will be some legitimate support for the Nattrass splitters too. UKIP has a long and glorious history of self inflicted wounds due to internal feuds.
It does give some insight into how Farage and his allies deal with internal debate.
If you want to vote for BNP light then certainly AIFE is the where you should place your mark.
Of course, some of this conscious reasoning might be based on faulty or partial information, if people have heard about the alleged misdeeds of UKIP but not those of AIFE.0 -
oh I would have loved to vote for Helen Of Troy , an early Thatcher I believeTheScreamingEagles said:
Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?state_go_away said:Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake
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More good news on Business Investment
Key Findings:
The estimates in this release are short term indicators of investment in assets, such as dwellings, transport equipment, machinery, buildings and intangible assets, across the United Kingdom. This release covers not only business investment, but asset breakdowns of total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), of which business investment is one component.
All investment data referred to in this bulletin are estimates of seasonally adjusted chained volume measures.
• Compared with the previous quarter, GFCF was estimated to have increased by £0.3 billion (0.6%) to £56.2 billion. On a sector basis, the largest increase came from business investment; in terms of assets, the largest increases came from other machinery and equipment, and dwellings.
• In Q1 2014, business investment rose by an estimated £0.9 billion (2.7%) to £32.8 billion compared with the previous quarter and was 8.7% higher compared with Q1 2013.
• GFCF and business investment have both shown quarter on quarter increases in each of the last five quarters. This was the first time five or more consecutive periods of growth were reported since 1998.
• Business investment was at its highest level since Q3 2008.0 -
I'm sure your MSci thesis will be just fine. It is hardly likely to be as bad as mine, which one examiner described as "turgid".OysterOctopus said:
Many thanks. I've been lurking PB for some years - I read it every day. Only started commenting now to distract from writing my MSci thesis.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Octopus, welcome to pb.com.
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Many thanks. In a sense, it's a relief, as she'd been in and out of hospital repeatedly for 12 months, and had been very unwell.0
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History suggests it's going to be a literally devastating defeat for them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?state_go_away said:Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake
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Sorry to hear that, Sean. Condolences to you and your family.Sean_F said:I'll vote in a few minutes. The polling station is the Luton Masonic Centre.
Sadly, my mother-in-law died last night, so I won't be paying as much attention to the results as usual.0 -
Fifth in the Euros is probably a better than 50/50 shot for the Libs.
However, it is very hard for the Libs to get no seats. The 'hurdle' in SE East England is probably only about 7%, which means that the Libs probably need to get less than 6% nationally. Possible? Yes. Likely, No.0 -
Its the strapline that really makes you believe AIFE is UKIP to anyone not a regular on PB (ie 99.999% of people) .
The party name gets you a bit confused so you read lower and it then seems to confirm its UKIP with only the last word of the strapline different.
The EC has some answering to do imo .,not so much the party name but allowing that strapline0 -
Maybe not.ThomasNashe said:
History suggests it's going to be a literally devastating defeat for them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Troy? I'm assuming the Achaeans are also standing as well?state_go_away said:Voted this morning in drizzly West Bridgford. Troy of course , but interested to look at how confusing the 'an independence from Europe' entry is on the ballot paper when doing it live so to speak. TO me its very confusing and could well imagine many UKIP voters voting for them by mistake
AIFE = The Greek's horse to Troy/UKIP. (Commonly known as a Trojan Horse, but I don't like it, as it implies the horse came from Troy)0 -
No change in GDP in Second Estimate of Q1 2014
• UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.8% between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014, unrevised from the previous estimate of GDP published 29 April 2014.
• GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.7% in 2013, compared with 2012, unrevised from the estimate published on 29 April 2014.
• Between Q1 2013 and Q1 2014 GDP in volume terms increased by 3.1%, unrevised from the previously published estimate.
• GDP in current prices was estimated to have increased by 1.2% between Q4 2013 and Q1 2014.0 -
Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.
The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.0 -
They are, I still can't believe they let in that Lee Rigby reference onto the ballot paper.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.
The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.0 -
Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?TheScreamingEagles said:
It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?Charles said:
I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...Lennon said:
Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)MarqueeMark said:Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.
;-)0 -
Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".0 -
Thanks Pulpstar - to be honest I don't fully understand that, well I might, I'm not sure - anyway I don't bet on horses much.0
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Poor PSNB figure this morning, a large increase on last April. Must. Do. Better.
It is clear now that the easy gains have all been had and now public sector spending must actually be reduced or frozen in real terms so tax collection can catch up. The government must stop growing public sector spending.0 -
Ladbrokes..TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.Pulpstar said:
I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?TheScreamingEagles said:Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.
On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.
Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury
Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training
Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury
06/12/2013 xx Single (Each-Way) 2 £ 10.00 2014 World Cup Top tournament goalscorer Luis Suarez 25/1 Pending0 -
Indeed, Mr. Eagles (on the EC/Lee Rigby). Complaining about the high turnout (less than 70%) last time was also feeble.0
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At best I hope they are merely rubbish ,at worst I hope to god they are not biased against a party . If AIFE get a fairly big percentage from people who thought they were voting UKIP then I hope the top brass get sacked . Democracy is too important to tolerate incompetentsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Away, I think you're right about that. It would be very easy to make that mistake.
The Electoral Commission does seem to be quite rubbish.0 -
Well you do know a lot of very important people.Charles said:
Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?TheScreamingEagles said:
It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?Charles said:
I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...Lennon said:
Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)MarqueeMark said:Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.
;-)
I do know someone who knew Michael Portillo from his Kensington and Chelsea days, and his quote was
"There are two types of people in the world, those who hate Michael Portillo, and those yet to meet Michael Portillo"0 -
I doubt they will void them ,certainly won't if he plays just 1 minute of the tournament. I think the rule is the bet stands runner or notPulpstar said:
Ladbrokes..TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hoping they'll void them, though the Suarez goals bets are with Paddy Power, knowing Paddy, they'll refund the stakes as a free bet.Pulpstar said:
I've got a fiver each way on him for Golden boot. I assume its a likely loser now rather than void ?TheScreamingEagles said:Well on the flip side, England's chances of getting out of the group just went through the roof.
On the downside, by bets on Uruguay winning the world cup, and him being golden boot winner and scoring more than England bets just became losers.
Luis Suárez's World Cup for Uruguay in doubt after knee injury
Liverpool striker damaged meniscus in training
Surgery could rule him out for up to six weeks
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/22/luis-suarez-world-cup-uruguay-injury
06/12/2013 xx Single (Each-Way) 2 £ 10.00 2014 World Cup Top tournament goalscorer Luis Suarez 25/1 Pending0 -
Not Hellenes but horse fairs: a key way of ascertaining the age of an otherwise unknown horse is to examine the teeth to see their state of wear. Basically, the saying is equivalent to "It's rude to be overtly sceptical of a gift".Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
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Well, worth bearing in mind that the Electoral Commission merely exists to enforce the rules set by Parliament.state_go_away said:The EC has some answering to do imo .,not so much the party name but allowing that strapline
Is there any particular reason for the parties to have a "strapline" on the ballot paper at all? It strikes me that is the flawed stage in the process, together with having the ballot in alphabetical order, as both encourage the parties to use contrivances for their advantage.0 -
Presumably, there'd only be any purpose to changing leader if there was to be a change to the Lib Dems' attitude to the coalition. Clegg's problem is no so much personal (he still comes across as an affable, if slightly lightweight, chap); it's political, and therefore would be the same for any other Lib Dem jumping to occupy the same position. If Clegg is forced out, the same logic would have to suggest the Lib Dems leaving government, though that could still be to move to either confidence and supply, or outright opposition.rogerh said:If the Lib Dem performance is truly disastrous( eg fifth place in the Euros,no MEP,s losses of 350+council seats and losses of more councils eg Kingston.Sutton?,Portsmouth. Cambridge,Three Rivers Portsmouth) a leadership challenge is possible.
However what would be the situation if a new leader were elected? Would Nick Clegg have to step down as Deputy PM? Who would decide if a new leader of the Lib dems could be appointed as Deputy PM?
In the hypothetical situation that there was a change and the Lib Dems still wanted to stay in government, then yes, Clegg would have to step down. Constitutionally, the PM appoints the cabinet but I can't see any plausible scenario whereby a new Lib Dem leader (or their parliamentary party) could accept Clegg staying in post - nor, for that matter, would Clegg want to, I should imagine. The PM needs a majority in parliament too.
As for what position the new Lib Dem would take, that would be a matter for negotiation between him and Cameron, and much may depend on whether Cameron wanted a major reshuffle of Tory ministers (in which case the opportunities are far wider), or whether he's happy with his team.
That said, if set against disastrous May election results, the Lib Dems would not have a strong hand to play if the alternative to what's being offered is to collapse the government and precipitate a general election.0 -
Mr. Carnyx, ah... I was misinformed by a childhood history book (I forget whether it was a Horrible or Sticky History). That does make more sense.0
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Ladbrokes will void it if he doesn't make it onto the pitch:
Me: I've backed Suarez top scorer @ the World Cup - but what happens if he is injured ?
Me And can't play ?
Me: Void or loser ?
Venise: If The player does not take part in the World cup your bet will be void.
Me: Thankyou
Venise: You're welcome
Venise: Is there anything else I can assist you with?
Me: Ye - What does take part mean ?
Me: In squad, on pitch, on subs bench ?
Venise: If he paly
Venise: If the player plays
Venise: On the pitch
Me: Thankyou
Venise: You're welcome
Venise: Is there anything else I can assist you with?
Me: Appreciated
Me: No ta
Venise: Have a nice day
A minute on the pitch means it is a loser, yep.state_go_away said:
I doubt they will void them ,certainly won't if he plays just 1 minute of the tournament. I think the rule is the bet stands runner or not0 -
The Trojans were really inept weren't they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.0 -
Speaker John Bercow is being accused of protecting a Left-wing ‘quango queen’ responsible for letting an extreme-Right party use butchered soldier Lee Rigby’s name in this week’s elections.
Sources revealed that Jenny Watson, head of the Electoral Commission, offered to resign after Britain First was mistakenly allowed to use the description ‘Remember Lee Rigby’ on voting slips for Thursday’s European polls - which fall on the first anniversary of his death.
The approval given to Britain First - a breakaway group of former BNP activists which describes itself as a 'patriotic resistance frontline' – to adopt the slogan has appalled MPs and Fusilier Rigby’s family.
But by the time the blunder had been spotted, it was too late to amend ballot papers.
Government sources revealed that Mr Bercow refused to accept Miss Watson’s resignation over the fiasco. The Commission – the country’s elections watchdog -- is answerable to Parliament via a committee headed by the Speaker.
‘Bercow has protected Jenny Watson,’ said one. ‘This is a dreadful episode and ultimately, she is in charge of the body that it responsible for it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635240/Bercow-battles-save-elections-boss-let-extremist-party-use-Lee-Rigbys-election-ballot-papers.html0 -
My positions on the Euros:
UKIP most votes
LibDems to get at least one MEP
AIFE to beat 1.5%
Labour to fail to get 26%
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Opinium's last two polls have put the Lib Dems on 5 and 6 per cent respectively, which is wipeout level. Everyone else seems to have them on comparable scores to their Westminster VI.rcs1000 said:Fifth in the Euros is probably a better than 50/50 shot for the Libs.
However, it is very hard for the Libs to get no seats. The 'hurdle' in SE East England is probably only about 7%, which means that the Libs probably need to get less than 6% nationally. Possible? Yes. Likely, No.
Which is right? Historically, the Lib Dems underperform their Westminster polling in European elections (and overperform in locals), however, if they're near bedrock now for Westminster, there're may not be many more floaters to peel off.
If I had to make a prediction now, it'd be for just the one Lib Dem MEP to be elected, as ninth or tenth in the South East.0 -
Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...0
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And I myself forgot to say that the correct English saying is "Never [not Always] look a gift horse in the mouth" - which makes even more sense!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, ah... I was misinformed by a childhood history book (I forget whether it was a Horrible or Sticky History). That does make more sense.
I suspect the author of the book was deliberately changing the proverb. Don't think it was 1066 and all that. They didn't do "foreign" stuff in that book IIRC.
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Final prediction on Council changes of control (Possibles rather than probable have question mark)
Lab Gains
Bristol from NOC
Swindon from CON
Croydon from CON
Harrow from NOC
Merton from NOC
Redbridge from NOC
Bradford from NOC
Calderdale from NOC
Kirklees from NOC
Stockport from NOC(?)
Walsall from NOC
Amber Valley from CON
Cambridge from LD
Crawley from CON
Tamworth frpm CON
Waveney from NOC
W Lancs from CON
Con Gains
Kingston from LD
Sutton from LD(?)
Winchester from NOC(?)
St Albans from NOC(?)
Purbeck from NOC(?)
Con losses to NOC
Basildon(?)
Basingstoke(?)
Lib Dem losses to NOC
Portsmouth
Three Rivers.
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Morning all.
Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.
There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.0 -
I know, I was merely yanking your wiffle stick.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...
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Probably go and vote in the next hour or so. Undecided about the locals, I'll see who's on the ballot paper when I get in.0
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Ten years keeping the entire Hellenic world out? Not too bad.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Trojans were really inept weren't they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
And if anyone had Trojan heritage it was allegedly (a) the Scottish royal family, and (b) the Romans, as P. Vergilius Maro expatiated in the Aeneid at great length to polish the lustre of his patron the Emperor ...
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Mr. Eagles, ah, terribly sorry, I'm just so used to you having classical history backwards I thought you'd made another horrendous mistake.0
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Just vote Troy!!Morris_Dancer said:Probably go and vote in the next hour or so. Undecided about the locals, I'll see who's on the ballot paper when I get in.
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Oooh, I did not know that.Carnyx said:
Ten years keeping the entire Hellenic world out? Not too bad.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Trojans were really inept weren't they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
And if anyone had Trojan heritage it was allegedly (a) the Scottish royal family, and (b) the Romans, as P. Vergilius Maro expatiated in the Aeneid at great length to polish the lustre of his patron the Emperor ...
And my knowledge of classical history is vast and brilliant, so I love it when I learn something new.0 -
Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.
On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.0 -
Just be careful which cafes and clubs you visit.SouthamObserver1 said:Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.
On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.0 -
Conservatives second please very much !SouthamObserver1 said:Greetings from the Dam. Not much sign of election fever here.
On topic - I doubt it will be close, except for 2nd and 3rd. This is UKIP's day.0 -
Just looked at the Pirate Party website and policies . So earnest and sensible , so why the name?1!!! Even me who follows politics and small parties to an unhealthy degree would see 'pirate party' and imagine an offshoot of the Monster Raving Looney party with people dressing up as Long John Silver rather than clownsrcs1000 said:0 -
Which is why I responded to a question you didn't ask...!TheScreamingEagles said:
Well you do know a lot of very important people.Charles said:
Goodness no! What makes you think I'd be friends with someone like him?TheScreamingEagles said:
It wasn't Michael Portillo was it?Charles said:
I know someone who didn't vote for themselves (because it was unlucky) and then lost by 1 vote...Lennon said:
Thanks. As a first time candidate it was slightly odd putting a cross next to my own name on the ballot paper! Good luck to all the other PBers going through the same thing today. :-)MarqueeMark said:Good luck to any amongst our number who are candidates today. You are defenders of democracy, however many votes you get.
;-)
I do know someone who knew Michael Portillo from his Kensington and Chelsea days, and his quote was
"There are two types of people in the world, those who hate Michael Portillo, and those yet to meet Michael Portillo"
(I think your friend is wrong though: there is a third type: those yet to meet Michael Portillo, but who still hate him...)
As an aside, I had a very interesting lunch yesterday with a former diplomat and a political editor. Insightful discussion on the potential for renegotiation.0 -
I agree but I'm more referring to the acceptance of a party with "UK Independence Now" as the tag line.SeanT said:
Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.Socrates said:When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.
I also don't see why they don't randomise the order on the ballot. People voting for higher up parties has been clearly established as a psychological effect. They did this in my old student union elections.0 -
MaxMaxPB said:Poor PSNB figure this morning, a large increase on last April. Must. Do. Better.
It is clear now that the easy gains have all been had and now public sector spending must actually be reduced or frozen in real terms so tax collection can catch up. The government must stop growing public sector spending.
You need to look underneath the headline statistics. April 2013 saw the introduction of the 45% top rate of tax and the consequent deferral of income tax liabilities from the prior year.
Look at how income tax revenues fall compared to other economic activity related receipts:
Taxes on production in April 2014 were £17.9 billion, a £0.5 billion, or 3.1% increase compared to the same month last year. Of these taxes, VAT receipts increased by £0.4 billion, or 4.1%, to £9.8 billion and Stamp duties (on shares, land & property) increased by £0.3 billion, or 29.8% to £1.1 billion, compared to the same month last year.
Income tax reported in April 2014 was £11.1 billion, a £0.8 billion, or 6.8% decrease compared to the same month last year.
Even after allowing for the fall in income tax receipts, April 2014 aggregate receipts were up 0.3% (£0.1 bn) and expenditure was down 1.0% (£0.6 bn) both on April 2013.
A quick look at the stats shows that the fundamentals are moving in the right direction. The ONR report due around midday should give us further clues, but my early guess based on a quick read of the bulletin is that this month's increase in borrowing is no more than a phasing anomaly.
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I voted in London. I was the only one there when I got there (about 8:30am), one other person came in while I was voting, and there was someone else talking to the teller when I walked out.Richard_Nabavi said:Morning all.
Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.
There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.
Having said that, when I got into the office this morning I know two colleagues, both EU citizens, who are determined to vote as they feel the UK needs more pro-European votes. I wonder if there'll be any exit polls on the nationality of those voting?0 -
You do realise that the British are descendent from Brutus, Prince of Troy (hence the name Brutan - it was originally called Albion, after the favorite son of Neptune, King of the Sea).TheScreamingEagles said:
The Trojans were really inept weren't they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
Source: the best history book EVAH!
http://www.mainlesson.com/display.php?author=marshall&book=island&story=albion
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At 10am, 6% turnout in Beeston West (deepest Guardian territory) - a small queue at the polling station. That's roughly General Election level at this time.0
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Condolences to you and your wife, Sean. Even when the circumstances are as you describe, the reality is always a sense of shock and loss.Sean_F said:Many thanks. In a sense, it's a relief, as she'd been in and out of hospital repeatedly for 12 months, and had been very unwell.
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Absolutely right Socrates. Putting candidates or parties in alphabetical order is lazy and thoughtless!Socrates said:
I agree but I'm more referring to the acceptance of a party with "UK Independence Now" as the tag line.SeanT said:
Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.Socrates said:When I voted today I glanced down the (very long) ballot paper and couldn't see UKIP. I knew they must be at the bottom, and then I noticed that the very bottom was folded backwards (all the other folds were forwards). Combined with an Independence from Europe being at the top, that could hurt people. The electoral commission just seem out to get UKIP to be honest. I'm not surprised - they're probably all political nerds that support the historic parties.
I also don't see why they don't randomise the order on the ballot. People voting for higher up parties has been clearly established as a psychological effect. They did this in my old student union elections.0 -
Turnout in Merton is mimicking 2006 local elections. Expect 42%.0
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I understand Putin has withdrawn troops from the border in order to reduce tensions in the EP election. Judging from my polling station this has worked.0
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Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...
It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas0 -
Its Prince Charles who has shamed him into it!!frpenkridge said:I understand Putin has withdrawn troops from the border in order to reduce tensions in the EP election. Judging from my polling station this has worked.
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Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....SeanT said:
Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.
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Mr. Mark, that'll anger the Aardwolf Party.0
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Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.
Voted Tory. The anarchist tendency in me had toyed with UKIP at one point, just for a laugh, but would have felt ever so slightly soiled if I had....0 -
Next time, to tap into Farage's popularity, UKIP should rename themselves, Farage's UKIP, or FUKIP for short.MarqueeMark said:
Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....SeanT said:
Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.0 -
No that dastardly Mike Nuttress man (or whatever he is called) would come up with 'A Aardvark against Europe' imo .I wonder if Jenny Watson would disallow that as being not proper grammar !MarqueeMark said:
Aardvarks Against Europe next time, Mr Farage.....SeanT said:
Much as I dislike the smearfest against UKIP, it's hardly the EC's fault UKIP chose a party name beginning with 'U', ensuring that they are always bottom of the ballot.0 -
Apt that the namesake of Queen of Carthage, Dido, is famous for doing a song called "White Flag"Charles said:
Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...
It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas0 -
As I might have mentioned previously - perhaps the Pirates should change to the 'Aaaargh... Here be Pirates' PartyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, that'll anger the Aardwolf Party.
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Why is AIFE not listed under I? Articles are usually ignored when alphabetising. Otherwise all the other parties would be listed under T for The0
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Aardman Animations Against Europe
"UKIP? They're the wrong troughers, Gromit!"0 -
The Julii were once Kings of Alba Longa, and were descended both from Aeneas and Venus.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Trojans were really inept weren't they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the saying "Never look a gift horse in the mouth" always confused me. Surely, if the Trojans had they might have seen the Greeks and not been conquered?
If anything "Always look a gift horse in the mouth". And "Never assume the people who've been trying to kill you for 10 years would suddenly decide to give you a massive leaving present to show there are no hard feelings".
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Hannibal had some Trojan heritage.
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No - this was another one of Nick "the liar" Clegg's distortions.rcs1000 said:
IIRC the budget for 'Brussels' in total is about the same as Birmingham Council. I.e., while Eurocrats are very well paid, there are surprisingly few of them.anotherDave said:"... in Brussels, even mid-ranking administrators can take home more cash than the Prime Minister. The leaked papers show that EU officials in the “AD 11” grade, a middle management group, have gross earnings of £112,090, including expatriation and household allowances. But because they pay just 13.4 per cent in tax, they take home £83,357 in net pay."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10847979/10000-European-Union-officials-better-paid-than-David-Cameron.html
170,000 people work for the EU - and this was in 2008, without the last six years growth:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/2535295/EU-bureaucrats-outnumber-British-army-two-to-one-say-campaigners.html
Birmingham has about 18,000 employees:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:SwuMmKs9ilEJ:www.thechamberlainfiles.com/birmingham-city-councils-disappearing-act/9199/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Nick Clegg was including teachers in the Birmingham City numbers.0 -
Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.0
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Morning all
The theatre that is Newham local politics plays out in view of the spare room window of Stodge Towers in deepest East Ham. The candidates stand outside the polling station and try to persuade the voters on the way in. It's been an interesting campaign with Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems all surprisingly active in a Ward which went 70% Labour last time and on all known form will be solidly Labour this time.
As to whether any other party will break Labour's Pyongyang-esque grasp on power, it seems unlikely though I could see something other than a clean sweep for Labour. I hear the CPA are confident about winning one of the Canning Town Wards and the Tories think they might get one candidate home in Royal Docks but Sir Robin Wales will cruise to re-election as Mayor.
In other thoughts, amusing to see the UKIP-inclined complain about a little poor and mostly self-inflicted media damage. Compared to the likes of John Major, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg, Farage and his party have had an easy ride
As others have said, when the Labour leader eating a sandwich becomes a political talking point you have to wonder a) about the standard of political debate and b) the intellectual capacity of those who think it's worth commenting on simply because they feel they have to have an opinion and everyone has to be aware of it.0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 13hJohnLilburne said:Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%0 -
Nick P posted the 2015 VI igures last night. IIRC Lab on 36% with a 3 point lead over Cons.JohnLilburne said:Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.
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Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?0
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A very brief google reveals that the guidelines are for there to be 2000-2500 electors per polling station.Socrates said:
I voted in London. I was the only one there when I got there (about 8:30am), one other person came in while I was voting, and there was someone else talking to the teller when I walked out.Richard_Nabavi said:Morning all.
Just done my democratic duty here in deepest Sussex. I didn't vote for AIFE or for UKIP.
There was no-one else at the polling station, and this at 9am when there were lots of people around in the village. If that is typical, I expect turnout will be very low.
Having said that, when I got into the office this morning I know two colleagues, both EU citizens, who are determined to vote as they feel the UK needs more pro-European votes. I wonder if there'll be any exit polls on the nationality of those voting?
Assuming the average is towards the top of that range [for reasons of reducing the overall number of polling stations] then the expected turnout of roughly one-third at these elections would equate to 800 voters at each polling station.
The polling stations are open for 15 hours, which is 900 minutes.
Does it take longer than 1 minute to obtain your polling paper, make your appropriate mark and deposit the ballot paper in the box? Assuming one does not linger at the polling station you would not necessarily expect to see another voter in there at the same time - though this also depends on the variation in voting frequency during the day.0 -
ObrigadoTheScreamingEagles said:
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 13hJohnLilburne said:Was there a YouGov Westminster VI yesterday? There's nothing on their website and it's usually posted at 6am.
YouGov/Sun poll for GE2015 - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%
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An is an indefinite article, The is the definite article.Socrates said:Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?
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Doesn't that put OGH in the position of involuntarily publishing an exit poll?MarqueeMark said:Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.
Voted Tory.
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@stodge
Clegg certainly had a tough time before the 2010 election, but he's been given an easy ride this time. Three million jobs dependent on the EU. One in seven UK businesses started by an immigrant. Birmingham City Council having more staff than the European Council. All were either highly misleading or outright lies, and yet he hasn't faced any tough interviews for it.0 -
It'll be about as accurate as a Yougov UKIP raw sample.Ishmael_X said:
Doesn't that put OGH in the position of involuntarily publishing an exit poll?MarqueeMark said:Voted 9.45 this morning, was number 33 through the doors. Weather grey, bit of drizzle.
Voted Tory.0 -
Infamous to anyone who doesn't share your taste in music.TheScreamingEagles said:
Apt that the namesake of Queen of Carthage, Dido, is famous for doing a song called "White Flag"Charles said:
Although didn't Aeneas have a fling with Dido, Queen of Carthage on the way?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, you seem confused, not for the first time. The Trojans went on to found Alba Longa, then Rome...
It's a great, but underperformed opera by Purcell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_and_Aeneas
Anyway, Mary's In India is far better ;-)
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It is for the Conservative Party to decide what name they put on the ballot paper.Socrates said:Another issue about the electoral commission. Surely the "An" shouldn't count for alphabetical order? Do they count the "The" for "The Conservative and Unionist Party"?
The Conservatives appear to have left the "The" out on the sample ballot papers that I have seen. presumably this is an attempt to move themselves higher up the ballot paper from where they would be if they used the "The".
The problem you are complaining about is mostly to do with the rules that the electoral commission are enforcing, not with how they are doing so.0
