politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest ads from a campaign to turn Republicans against Tru

HYUFD said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

eadric said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

eadric said:

Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next


I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell

I will defend Cromwell's statues.

He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.

All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.

I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).

I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.

The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?

The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.

The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.

Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.

I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.

I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.

There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1273355285718016001/photo/1

Meanwhile in Germany...

App up and running. Apple/Google os based.

What a shower our lot are. Pathetically predictable.

MrEd said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

eadric said:

MrEd said:

eadric said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.

Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party

Johnson is gone next year would be my bet. The MPs - where the base has shifted radically from traditional Tory types to favouring Red Wall interests - will want someone to stand up to the mob. That's why I think Priti Patel is the better bet for next Cons leader / PM ahead of Rishi Sunak.

I agree Johnson goes next year. Not sure about Patel. Sunak seems likelier.

I think you're right about Boris; if anything, the risk is on him going earlier. He's not well, he's not doing well and he has always enjoyed the pursuit more than the possession. He's found a way of surviving PMQs; if it hadn't been for that, I could imagine him stomping off in a sulk because everyone is being so mean to him.

As for his successor; the next few years are likely to be a bit of a mess. Government is going to be difficult and Boris and Brexit-in-the-abstract are the only things holding the Conservative party and vote together right now. On top of that, there's the Covid fallout.

So if I were young, smart and ambitious, I might look to hold back for now. Take over after the defeat in 2024, be PM in 2029. It might be a nice job by then. So not Sunak as king, though maybe as kingmaker.

But someone has to take over. They need to be competent enough, ambitious enough and realising that it's now or never. Why doesn't that point to M. Gove?

If the Tories replace Boris, their most successful election winner since Thatcher and who still leads the polls with Gove, who makes cockroaches look popular, they would be insane

I don't think the Tories will force him out, I think he will step down of his own accord. I don't think a culture war suits him in the same way as flying the flag on Brexit. Plus there is the question of his health.

IshmaelZ said:

Charles said:

IshmaelZ said:

geoffw said:

"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.

Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.

The payments mark the first time the controversy over the UK's past involvement with slavery, which has led to statues being torn down, has impacted the corporate sector."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/17/companies-britain-linked-slave-trade-say-today/

The Telegraph thinks Lloyd's is an "insurance firm?" Dear me.

I wonder whether any of the London banking houses with old enough roots are considering their position.

You could try checking Wiki

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Hoare_Jr

Finding this claim about him elsewhere

"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."

https://pryorfrancis.wordpress.com/2012/02/23/the-slave-trade-beginning-the-end/

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

I never thought I’d say this but that ad makes me feel sorry for the odious Trumpton.

There are an almost infinite amount of attack lines. Attacking someone on health grounds sets a very dangerous, unethical precedent I think

Especially when it's Biden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1b8Hpgkw4A

I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.

I don’t think I received an answer.

Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.

Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.

Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?

No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.

I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.

BluestBlue said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Can't harm the Starmer!

Well, quite. Androids don't feel much at all:

https://twitter.com/ArchRose90/status/1272984874195050498

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.

If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.

We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.

Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.

The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.

Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.

And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

I never thought I’d say this but that ad makes me feel sorry for the odious Trumpton.

There are an almost infinite amount of attack lines. Attacking someone on health grounds sets a very dangerous, unethical precedent I think

Especially when it's Biden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1b8Hpgkw4A

I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.

I don’t think I received an answer.

Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.

Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.

Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?

No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.

I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.

All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.

To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.

I have bet accordingly.

Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.

If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.

We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.

Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.

The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.

Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.

And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...

rottenborough said:

Benpointer said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1273355285718016001/photo/1

Meanwhile in Germany...

App up and running. Apple/Google os based.

What a shower our lot are. Pathetically predictable.

IIRC the German app has been made open source - why don't we just change the user interface to English and use that?

Because PHE, the minister, someone, who knows insists we have a home-made version that doesn't use Apple/Google decentralised privacy-based solution.

No doubt the public inquiry will enlighten us.

In about five years time.

HYUFD said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

I never thought I’d say this but that ad makes me feel sorry for the odious Trumpton.

There are an almost infinite amount of attack lines. Attacking someone on health grounds sets a very dangerous, unethical precedent I think

Especially when it's Biden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1b8Hpgkw4A

I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.

I don’t think I received an answer.

Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.

Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.

Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?

Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.

If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.

We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.

Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.

The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.

Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.

And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...

Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

eadric said:

Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next


I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell

I will defend Cromwell's statues.

He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.

All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.

It’s ironic that the two presumed great champions of Parliamentary democracy in England - Simon de Montfort and Cromwell - were also both genocidal nutters.

There’s also something of an irony in that having fought a vicious war to impose Parliament on the king, once getting to power they both sidelined it to arrogate power to themselves.

Who could we have as a Parliamentary champion untainted by slaving? Disraeli perhaps, as the author of the Second Reform Act? But even he made some pretty unpleasant remarks about the Irish.

eadric said:

Charles said:

IshmaelZ said:

Charles said:

IshmaelZ said:

geoffw said:

"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.

Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.

The payments mark the first time the controversy over the UK's past involvement with slavery, which has led to statues being torn down, has impacted the corporate sector."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/17/companies-britain-linked-slave-trade-say-today/

The Telegraph thinks Lloyd's is an "insurance firm?" Dear me.

I wonder whether any of the London banking houses with old enough roots are considering their position.

You could try checking Wiki

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Hoare_Jr

Finding this claim about him elsewhere

"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."

https://pryorfrancis.wordpress.com/2012/02/23/the-slave-trade-beginning-the-end/

Pryor Francis (whoever that is) is wrong.

Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.

He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.

I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.

I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else

*shudders*

rkrkrk said:

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.

I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.

There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe

And if I'd asked you in 2016? Back then Rhodes must fall did not seem very mainstream.

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.

If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.

We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.

Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.

The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.

Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.

And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...

Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too

There's a massive space between "not thinking Churchill's statue should be ripped down" and "There are plenty of statues of scoundrels that should never have been put up in the first place". I know Centrist Dad is a boring position to hold, but whoever successfully occupies it, wins.

And a party that doesn't pay attention to all the generational shifts that happen (and my point is that there's more going on than Trendy University Campuses; the change from no CSEs to some GCSEs is just as important but neglected) deserves oblivion if it comes.

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Cyclefree said:

Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.

Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.

Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.

MrEd said:

Alistair said:

MrEd said:

rkrkrk said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.

I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.

I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa

Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.

I think the better way to phrase this is "those who say they support BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52%"

That doesn't necessarily mean 52% now do.

kle4 said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

Used to be. Most people do not think the end of pubs would be a tragedy, even if they say it would be a tragedy, when judged by actions.

Anabobazina said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

Utter rubbish.

Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.

Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.

Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.

You are simply wrong.

eadric said:

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.

Your kids are weird.

My wife is 24 and she and her friends used to go to pubs all the time (usually "the Spoons"- cheap, innit). The virus has stopped this but they will be straight back in when the Taverns of Albion reopen

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

MrEd said:

Anabobazina said:

I never thought I’d say this but that ad makes me feel sorry for the odious Trumpton.

There are an almost infinite amount of attack lines. Attacking someone on health grounds sets a very dangerous, unethical precedent I think

Especially when it's Biden

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1b8Hpgkw4A

I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.

I don’t think I received an answer.

Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.

Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.

Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?

No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.

I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.

All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.

To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.

I have bet accordingly.

Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.

Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!

Please don't get Mrs Ed started on this!

In summary though, she is Black and hates the way the BLM movement claims to speak for Black people. She made the (fair) point the Democrats have done little for Black people in a long time (and, yes, I think 1965 was a long time ago)

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

fpr for Stuart

Slave traders are one thing. But look at their ever-extending list of targets

Captain Cook, Lord Nelson, Oliver Cromwell, King Charles, Robert Peel, James II...

Basically it is all of British history. They want to erase it.

https://www.toppletheracists.org/

No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.

But not the slavery which still exists around the world or the modern slavery which benefits middle class lifestyles in this country.

Funny how people don't want to talk about those.

Sean_F said:

Stuartinromford said:

Sean_F said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

EPG said:

eadric said:

And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people

The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.

This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024

It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.

Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.

https://twitter.com/sophgaston/status/1272525523583934466?s=09

People change their minds when they turn 40.

They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.

If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.

We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.

Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.

The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.

Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.

And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...

At the last election, the tipping point for people voting Conservative rather than Labour fell from 47 to 37.

All of my life, people have been arguing that the Conservatives are doomed because young people are left wing, and will remain left wing as they age.

eadric said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1273364552504291328?s=20

What a bizarre mix of nations.

India should have a permament seat, it is a nation of 1.4bn people.

Tiny France should have theirs taken away and their seat should either be given to the EU as a whole, or simply handed to Germany

The UK should of course be allowed to remain, forever, as we had the biggest empire in history.

Benpointer said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1273355285718016001/photo/1

Meanwhile in Germany...

App up and running. Apple/Google os based.

What a shower our lot are. Pathetically predictable.

IIRC the German app has been made open source - why don't we just change the user interface to English and use that?

eadric said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1273364552504291328?s=20

What a bizarre mix of nations.

India should have a permament seat, it is a nation of 1.4bn people.

Tiny France should have theirs taken away and their seat should either be given to the EU as a whole, or simply handed to Germany

The UK should of course be allowed to remain, forever, as we had the biggest empire in history.

eadric said:

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.

Your kids are weird.

My wife is 24 and she and her friends used to go to pubs all the time (usually "the Spoons"- cheap, innit). The virus has stopped this but they will be straight back in when the Taverns of Albion reopen

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.

I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.

Anabobazina said:

dixiedean said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Anabobazina said:

Nigelb said:

@Cyclefree has some heavyweight support:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/17/lockdown-beer-firms-warn-boris-johnson-sales-confusion-reopening-uk-jobs
... Hundreds of pubs could shut for ever unless Boris Johnson decides in the next 48 hours when they can reopen, the UK’s largest beer companies have warned.

In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....

Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.

Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.

Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.

A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.

Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.

I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.

I have done my best over the years

It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.

I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.

My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.

I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.