Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
The best is the enemy of the good.
What a classic case this is.
That may well be right. But we need to understand the nature of the mistake, if it is one. Also, it's not actually clear that other countries are doing much better on this:
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
Used to be. Most people do not think the end of pubs would be a tragedy, even if they say it would be a tragedy, when judged by actions.
It would be a tragedy. BUT I do not think it will happen.
There have been taverns for probably 5000 years. "Alcohol" is probably the oldest word, in terms of etymological descent, in the English language. Some argue that it can be traced right back to the original Sumerian, the first written tongue
When people drink "alcohol" they feel disinhibited, convivial and sociable, and they want to gather together to chat, joke, flirt, fight, kiss, sing, chant, gossip, and fall over.
It is pure human nature.
Pubs will survive, we are a social animal, we will get bored of lurking at home watching bloody Netflix and checking our phones
My worry is the number of great pubs that will go under in the next few years. It could scar all our villages, towns and cities.
But pubs themselves? They will endure
Can I ask what's so special about Netflix that it is always referred to in such discussions ?
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Why wouldn't they dream of visiting a pub?
I don't really know. They simply don't. They have better things to spend money on I guess.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
Errr, weren't the young more likely to be opposed to Europe in the 1975 referendum than older age groups?
That was my understanding too. 1975: older people were more strongly In, younger people were less strongly In 2016: very old people were on balance In, quite old people (the younger people from 1975) strongly Out, younger people on balance In
There was also a national In to Out shift, but the bulge was the same people; crudely the Baby Boomers.
Those who actually experienced the War and Generation EasyJet preferred continuing membership of the EU, the generation in-between went from lack of enthusiasm to strong antipathy.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.
I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else
*shudders*
We* are all, very probably, descended from Rollo of Normandy if he has any any living descendants at all. It's just a factor of the maths.
(*At least those of us of mainly European descent.)
Exactly. Go back that far and work out how many ancestors we each have. Either we are all descended from Rollo, or none of us is.
1100 years at, say, four generations a century means I have c. 17.5 trillion great(x42)-grandparents.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
If we survive I will invite you to my part of South Lakeland where I will show you walks and cycling routes and landscapes to die for and lots of really good pub/restaurants. As good as you get wherever you are.
Not an area I know well but I was due up there in April, staying in Dent. Was due to eat at the Black Swan at Ravenstondale. Was looking forward to it immensely.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think give them trust until they disappoint you.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
If we survive I will invite you to my part of South Lakeland where I will show you walks and cycling routes and landscapes to die for and lots of really good pub/restaurants. As good as you get wherever you are.
Not an area I know well but I was due up there in April, staying in Dent. Was due to eat at the Black Swan at Ravenstondale. Was looking forward to it immensely.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
Used to be. Most people do not think the end of pubs would be a tragedy, even if they say it would be a tragedy, when judged by actions.
It would be a tragedy. BUT I do not think it will happen.
There have been taverns for probably 5000 years. "Alcohol" is probably the oldest word, in terms of etymological descent, in the English language. Some argue that it can be traced right back to the original Sumerian, the first written tongue
When people drink "alcohol" they feel disinhibited, convivial and sociable, and they want to gather together to chat, joke, flirt, fight, kiss, sing, chant, gossip, and fall over.
It is pure human nature.
Pubs will survive, we are a social animal, we will get bored of lurking at home watching bloody Netflix and checking our phones
My worry is the number of great pubs that will go under in the next few years. It could scar all our villages, towns and cities.
But pubs themselves? They will endure
"Coriander" appears in Cretan linear B tablets, 3,500 years old.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
Good news on the Rhodes though - I gather its days are numbered but only after "due process".
That's a win win and says much for all involved.
I think we can all sleep that little bit easier now.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
We will find out in November, the 1968 radical left riots at the Democratic convention destroyed the campaign chances of the moderate, decent Vice President Humphrey and gave Nixon a narrow victory on a law and order platform
Ummm... I always though Humphrey rather outperformed expectations in '68. When you consider that he only became the Presidential candidate due to the unpopularity of the Johnson adminstration, the draft, and the growing death toll in Vietnam.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Crap, why?
I find Irish pubs - I mean real pubs in Ireland - surprisingly disappointing. There are some gems on the West Coast, but they are rare overall. Often Irish pubs (away from the sea) are very basic drinking holes, a few packets of crisps, no atmos. Sometimes quite edgy.
Pubs in the central belt of Scotland are the same. Perhaps it is a Celtic thing
Yes, crap exactly like that! Lots of pubs in the Yorkshire Dales (for example) fall into the model you describe. It’s sad as many are beautiful from the outside.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
We had an election 6 months ago and the Woke gestapo didn't win. So why are so many people behaving as if they did?
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
You are simply wrong.
In the days Before Corona I went to a knitting group on Monday evenings that met in a pub in Edinburgh. The pub we chose serves a good range of food and there would normally be a handful of couples in for dinner.
Aside from that custom, and a dozen or so knitters buying food and drink, there were two regulars who would be there for the evening to drink. Two.
They've got to know the knitters quite well after the shock of us appearing from nowhere when we moved en masse from the previous, not-as-well-lit pub.
My point being that the idea that Britain retains a pub culture, as it did in days of yore, where men would meet up for a drink after work most days of the week, is dead. It's gone.
Pubs still hang on for other uses, as cafes with an alcohol licence, or as anonymous industrial drinking sheds, but the community pub as represented by The Old Vic, or The Rovers Return, has been long dead these many years.
A pub you go to after a Sunday walk is not the same thing. It's not a "pub culture".
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
The Lakes has a long tradition of good food - really good restaurants + suppliers - and most of the pubs I know have benefited from and built on that. Also in a rural area they need to be real community centres and have a special USP to get people going to them. So around me most of the pubs specialise in something to get customers in. To do well you really need to know your market and clientele.
In towns elsewhere the situation may be different. Can’t speak for those.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
If we survive I will invite you to my part of South Lakeland where I will show you walks and cycling routes and landscapes to die for and lots of really good pub/restaurants. As good as you get wherever you are.
Not an area I know well but I was due up there in April, staying in Dent. Was due to eat at the Black Swan at Ravenstondale. Was looking forward to it immensely.
Sadly the trip was killed by the lockdown
Ha! I know that place. Very fond memories.
To make matters worse the weather on the weekend we were due to visit was simply sublime - not commonplace in the Lakes in April!
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think given them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
Germany - so far - seems to have done better on the tracing app, although it was launched only yesterday so it's a bit early to be sure. Other countries, not so much.
It isn't a question of trusting the politicians. They have explained (or rather the experts advising them have) exactly why they thought the Google/Apple approach didn't given them the information they needed. It is perfectly possible that they got that judgement wrong - the best being the enemy of the good, as @rottenborough said. If so, one could argue that they were incompetent, but you don't need to distrust their motives. In fact, it makes no sense to do so, cock-up beating conspiracy almost always.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
If we survive I will invite you to my part of South Lakeland where I will show you walks and cycling routes and landscapes to die for and lots of really good pub/restaurants. As good as you get wherever you are.
Not an area I know well but I was due up there in April, staying in Dent. Was due to eat at the Black Swan at Ravenstondale. Was looking forward to it immensely.
Sadly the trip was killed by the lockdown
Ha! I know that place. Very fond memories.
To make matters worse the weather on the weekend we were due to visit was simply sublime - not commonplace in the Lakes in April!
We’ll make sure we do it someday.
Yes April weather has been exceptional - and May. Spectacular storms today though - with lightning over the Irish Sea.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
We had an election 6 months ago and the Woke gestapo didn't win. So why are so many people behaving as if they did?
On the long sweep of history, 'woke' values are winning and will continue to win.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That is probably a fair summation. There simply isn't the disposable income up here in the NE to make closing, 're fitting and 're opening worthwhile. So the vast majority, not all, have seen much better days. At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Having said that. The Feathers at Hedley on the Hill is as fine a location as any. Wonderful beer selection and a Michelin rosette if anyone ever ventures up here.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
You are simply wrong.
In the days Before Corona I went to a knitting group on Monday evenings that met in a pub in Edinburgh. The pub we chose serves a good range of food and there would normally be a handful of couples in for dinner.
Aside from that custom, and a dozen or so knitters buying food and drink, there were two regulars who would be there for the evening to drink. Two.
They've got to know the knitters quite well after the shock of us appearing from nowhere when we moved en masse from the previous, not-as-well-lit pub.
My point being that the idea that Britain retains a pub culture, as it did in days of yore, where men would meet up for a drink after work most days of the week, is dead. It's gone.
Pubs still hang on for other uses, as cafes with an alcohol licence, or as anonymous industrial drinking sheds, but the community pub as represented by The Old Vic, or The Rovers Return, has been long dead these many years.
A pub you go to after a Sunday walk is not the same thing. It's not a "pub culture".
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
You are simply wrong.
In the days Before Corona I went to a knitting group on Monday evenings that met in a pub in Edinburgh. The pub we chose serves a good range of food and there would normally be a handful of couples in for dinner.
Aside from that custom, and a dozen or so knitters buying food and drink, there were two regulars who would be there for the evening to drink. Two.
They've got to know the knitters quite well after the shock of us appearing from nowhere when we moved en masse from the previous, not-as-well-lit pub.
My point being that the idea that Britain retains a pub culture, as it did in days of yore, where men would meet up for a drink after work most days of the week, is dead. It's gone.
Pubs still hang on for other uses, as cafes with an alcohol licence, or as anonymous industrial drinking sheds, but the community pub as represented by The Old Vic, or The Rovers Return, has been long dead these many years.
A pub you go to after a Sunday walk is not the same thing. It's not a "pub culture".
Nonsense.
Walking to a country pub is as much an integral part of English culture as tea and scones.
Pubs have diversified, yes, and good that they have too, but The Pub remains the backbone of England. Indeed, as @eadric so eloquently puts it, it IS England.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Answered that one thanks.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
Did you? I didn’t see it (genuinely)!
Alright, I believe you
I said Trump over Biden but, if it was Trump vs Warren, it would be a closer call.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think give them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
Maybe the app was a bit of a distraction all along. Had we just gone for a competent manual tracing scheme in March, coupled a decent fast testing system and a generous enough system of quarantine pay to get full compliance, I imagine we would have been in a far better place than we are.
One of the things that bothers me a lot is that the government has gone for things- the app, the ventilators, the Nightingale hospitals- that have generated good headlines but not actually been as useful as old fashioned Public Health.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
We had an election 6 months ago and the Woke gestapo didn't win. So why are so many people behaving as if they did?
Why are you parroting softhead phrases like Woke Gestapo?
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Why wouldn't they dream of visiting a pub?
I don't really know. They simply don't. They have better things to spend money on I guess.
Fox Jr goes to the pub maybe a couple of times a month. At the same age I went a couple of nights a week. I have an after work beer with colleagues once a fortnight or so.
It simply is an observerble fact that pubs are less frequented than a few decades ago. Some make it up on the food, being restaurants in all but name.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think given them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
Germany - so far - seems to have done better on the tracing app, although it was launched only yesterday so it's a bit early to be sure. Other countries, not so much.
It isn't a question of trusting the politicians. They have explained (or rather the experts advising them have) exactly why they thought the Google/Apple approach didn't given them the information they needed. It is perfectly possible that they got that judgement wrong - the best being the enemy of the good, as @rottenborough said. If so, one could argue that they were incompetent, but you don't need to distrust their motives. In fact, it makes no sense to do so, cock-up beating conspiracy almost always.
I am sure you will understand that given my background and experience I find that it is worth inquiring a little more deeply into why things are being done the way they are. The scientists may have had one motive but that does not rule out others having very different motives or additional motives.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That is probably a fair summation. There simply isn't the disposable income up here in the NE to make closing, 're fitting and 're opening worthwhile. So the vast majority, not all, have seen much better days. At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Agreed. I love Northumberland and Teesdale but pub network is really lacking. Hard to find a decent freshly cooked dinner in most of them. Quite enjoyed the High Force Hotel though!
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
But not the slavery which still exists around the world or the modern slavery which benefits middle class lifestyles in this country.
Funny how people don't want to talk about those.
Oh, I am quite happy to talk about the exploited workers at the sharp end of globalised capitalism too.
Well there's nothing stopping you and given that you're in what seems like a hotspot of modern slavery:
People are being forced to work in nail bars and car washes and on traveller sites, according to Leicestershire Police's latest assessment of 'modern day slavery' in the city and county.
Women are also being forced to work in prostitution, according to a new report by the officer who is overseeing the force's response to the growing threat.
Superintendent Shane O'Neill, of Leicestershire Police, said there is also evidence nationally of people working in slavery conditions in the catering and construction industries.
Concerns over the ongoing situation of up to 10,000 garment workers in Leicester, who are feared to be trapped in conditions of modern slavery and paid £3 an hour, have been raised in Parliament.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, raised a question on Tuesday about the continuing state of working conditions in factories supplying the UK’s booming fast fashion industry, and sought a meeting with business secretary Kelly Tolhurst for clarity over enforcement of the national minimum wage.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
I'm sure you're right that Warren would be a better President. Heck, I think @eadric would be a better President than Biden.
But I don't think that matters.
I think the second CV-19 wave in the US is going to toastify Trump.
It's all the economic damage of an actual lockdown, with none of the benefits of actually getting rid of the virus.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
Errr, weren't the young more likely to be opposed to Europe in the 1975 referendum than older age groups?
That was my understanding too. 1975: older people were more strongly In, younger people were less strongly In 2016: very old people were on balance In, quite old people (the younger people from 1975) strongly Out, younger people on balance In
There was also a national In to Out shift, but the bulge was the same people; crudely the Baby Boomers.
Those who actually experienced the War and Generation EasyJet preferred continuing membership of the EU, the generation in-between went from lack of enthusiasm to strong antipathy.
I rechecked the BES just to make sure I wasn't going mad and indeed there was a straight correlation with age, the older you were the more in favour of the EC. The younger you were the more against.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Why wouldn't they dream of visiting a pub?
I don't really know. They simply don't. They have better things to spend money on I guess.
Fox Jr goes to the pub maybe a couple of times a month. At the same age I went a couple of nights a week. I have an after work beer with colleagues once a fortnight or so.
It simply is an observerble fact that pubs are less frequented than a few decades ago. Some make it up on the food, being restaurants in all but name.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Your kids are weird.
My wife is 24 and she and her friends used to go to pubs all the time (usually "the Spoons"- cheap, innit). The virus has stopped this but they will be straight back in when the Taverns of Albion reopen
But by that point she'll be in her forties, and her pub going days will be behind her.
I am sure you will understand that given my background and experience I find that it is worth inquiring a little more deeply into why things are being done the way they are. The scientists may have had one motive but that does not rule out others having very different motives or additional motives.
To be honest, I think that idea that Matt Hancock is some kind of evil genius, exploiting the requests of the epidemiologists for some nefarious ulterior motive, is somewhat far-fetched. A much simpler explanation is that he's a decent bloke somewhat out of his depth.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That is probably a fair summation. There simply isn't the disposable income up here in the NE to make closing, 're fitting and 're opening worthwhile. So the vast majority, not all, have seen much better days. At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Agreed. I love Northumberland and Teesdale but pub network is really lacking. Hard to find a decent freshly cooked dinner in most of them. Quite enjoyed the High Force Hotel though!
See my edited post above or below for a Northumberland tip.
I thought the reason Boris Force One is currently grey is because its primary rôle is as a tanker and so needs to be as radar un-reflective as possible for survivability in combat. The re-paint means that in the event of Vladimir Vladimirovitch deciding to make a dash for the Baltic, the RAF will be down one tanker as either it'll be a sitting duck or they won't dare to deploy it anyway.
Mind you, I'm no expert. I'd be interested in @Dura_Ace's opinion.
Paint on an A330 has almost nothing to do with its RCS - which is fucking enormous anyway.
Grey aircraft are supposed to be hard to acquire visually but it doesn't really make much difference in my experience. Also, the A330 MRTT is one aircraft that you actively WANT other aircraft to be able to find...
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Crap, why?
I find Irish pubs - I mean real pubs in Ireland - surprisingly disappointing. There are some gems on the West Coast, but they are rare overall. Often Irish pubs (away from the sea) are very basic drinking holes, a few packets of crisps, no atmos. Sometimes quite edgy.
Pubs in the central belt of Scotland are the same. Perhaps it is a Celtic thing
Yes, crap exactly like that! Lots of pubs in the Yorkshire Dales (for example) fall into the model you describe. It’s sad as many are beautiful from the outside.
That's a terrible shame
I agree most of the best country pubs are probably in southern and western England.
There is something truly wonderful about hiking, say, the Chilterns, or the Downs, or the Weald, or the meadows of Hampshire, Wiltshire, or the valleys of Dorset, and walking into a 400 year old pub that does great food, really excellent beer, and has a nice line in wine. And a lovely garden to sit in the sun.
That is bliss. Few countries match England when it is that good,
Same goes for Cornwall and Devon, but they can be even better because of the dramatically beautiful coast
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
I agree that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance going on.
But at the same time, Trump is unpopular, perhaps extremely unpopular. He had a narrow victory last time, against an incredibly unpopular Democratic candidate. This time, he gets an utterly bland opponent. And he gets a recession. And he gets a motivated Democratic base. And he gets a CV-19 crisis that's likely to still be raging in the US, while it's been solved in many other parts of the world.
Uncle Joe will be a terrible President. He has no spark. He is probably suffering from the early stages of dementia. What is he but "not Trump"?
I have no doubt the most likely situation is that the Democrats lose in 2024.
But for 2020, I think one has to now think that Trump is rightly the underdog.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
I am sure you will understand that given my background and experience I find that it is worth inquiring a little more deeply into why things are being done the way they are. The scientists may have had one motive but that does not rule out others having very different motives or additional motives.
To be honest, I think that idea that Matt Hancock is some kind of evil genius, exploiting the requests of the epidemiologists for some nefarious ulterior motive, is somewhat far-fetched. A much simpler explanation is that he's a decent bloke somewhat out of his depth.
Who said anything about Hancock. He’s the monkey not the organ grinder.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That is probably a fair summation. There simply isn't the disposable income up here in the NE to make closing, 're fitting and 're opening worthwhile. So the vast majority, not all, have seen much better days. At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Agreed. I love Northumberland and Teesdale but pub network is really lacking. Hard to find a decent freshly cooked dinner in most of them. Quite enjoyed the High Force Hotel though!
See my edited post above or below for a Northumberland tip.
Great tip - I have eaten at the Feathers several times. Absolutely superb pub, with great locally sourced food and ales. I thought it was Co. Durham (just) but you are probably right that it’s north of the mighty Tyne.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
I'm sure you're right that Warren would be a better President. Heck, I think @eadric would be a better President than Biden.
But I don't think that matters.
I think the second CV-19 wave in the US is going to toastify Trump.
It's all the economic damage of an actual lockdown, with none of the benefits of actually getting rid of the virus.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
Errr, weren't the young more likely to be opposed to Europe in the 1975 referendum than older age groups?
That was my understanding too. 1975: older people were more strongly In, younger people were less strongly In 2016: very old people were on balance In, quite old people (the younger people from 1975) strongly Out, younger people on balance In
There was also a national In to Out shift, but the bulge was the same people; crudely the Baby Boomers.
Those who actually experienced the War and Generation EasyJet preferred continuing membership of the EU, the generation in-between went from lack of enthusiasm to strong antipathy.
I rechecked the BES just to make sure I wasn't going mad and indeed there was a straight correlation with age, the older you were the more in favour of the EC. The younger you were the more against.
Also the offer was different. In 1975 the question was whether to stay in the common market or not. It was simply an economic grouping. The brexit vote was whether to stay part of a sprawling supra-national organism that had greater powers than national governments and with its "ever closer union" credo had no discernable limits on its growth. A different concept entirely.
I voted to stay in 1975. Had I been in the UK for brexit I would have voted leave. I like the idea of a trade relationship with Europe. But not the rest.My views have not changed since 1975, but the question did.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Why wouldn't they dream of visiting a pub?
I don't really know. They simply don't. They have better things to spend money on I guess.
Fox Jr goes to the pub maybe a couple of times a month. At the same age I went a couple of nights a week. I have an after work beer with colleagues once a fortnight or so.
It simply is an observerble fact that pubs are less frequented than a few decades ago. Some make it up on the food, being restaurants in all but name.
Pubs have diversified into having great wine lists, serving beautiful, inventive food and - wow! - even attracting female guests.
None of these fantastic trends make them less of a pub. A pub is a pub, if it has wine, women and great food, even better.
With you all the way, bro
In my lifetime pubs have improved immeasurably
To be able to walk into a pub, find the same good beer, conversation, fun, darts, whatever, as before - but now also agreeable food, decent wine, civilised loos, female-friendly atmos, is a wonderful thing
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
India should have a permament seat, it is a nation of 1.4bn people.
Tiny France should have theirs taken away and their seat should either be given to the EU as a whole, or simply handed to Germany
The UK should of course be allowed to remain, forever, as we had the biggest empire in history.
I presume most nations must not like the five permanent member set up, I'm vaguely curious what it would take to ever change it.
I really don't care about our seat. I wouldn't toss it away for nothing like Tony Blair with a rebate, but I don't feel we'd miss it if it went. We usually just agree with America as far as I know.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
People don't vote on headline numbers, they vote on how they personally are feeling.
Tell someone the Q3 GDP is up, but he still doesn't have a job, and he's not going to be saying "Whoopee!"
Arizona, where my business operates, reopened a month ago. It's now beginning to close down again, because new cases which had 222/day in late May are now (as of yesterday) 2,392.
People are going to stop going to clubs and bars and restaurants, irrespective of official guidance.
The economy will be grinding to a halt again, because people don't want to get CV-19, irrespective of what the Governor says.
And, of course, it will get into old peoples' homes (and there are lots of old people in Arizona).
Premature re-opening, followed by de facto lockdowns is a disaster for the Republicans. Because you don't eliminate the virus and you don't get the economy moving.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Not rude. Very true. Cheaper though.
Sorta. But lots of pubs flogging ham and eggs for £15+ in northern beauty spots, when you could find chef-cooked gastro food down here for that if you look in the right places.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That is probably a fair summation. There simply isn't the disposable income up here in the NE to make closing, 're fitting and 're opening worthwhile. So the vast majority, not all, have seen much better days. At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Agreed. I love Northumberland and Teesdale but pub network is really lacking. Hard to find a decent freshly cooked dinner in most of them. Quite enjoyed the High Force Hotel though!
See my edited post above or below for a Northumberland tip.
Great tip - I have eaten at the Feathers several times. Absolutely superb pub, with great locally sourced food and ales. I thought it was Co. Durham (just) but you are probably right that it’s north of the mighty Tyne.
South of the Tyne but still Northumberland just. On a clear day you can see the North Sea from the car park. And walk a 100 metres down the road all the way to the Scottish border and the Cheviot. That is my third closest boozer.
I am sure you will understand that given my background and experience I find that it is worth inquiring a little more deeply into why things are being done the way they are. The scientists may have had one motive but that does not rule out others having very different motives or additional motives.
To be honest, I think that idea that Matt Hancock is some kind of evil genius, exploiting the requests of the epidemiologists for some nefarious ulterior motive, is somewhat far-fetched. A much simpler explanation is that he's a decent bloke somewhat out of his depth.
Who said anything about Hancock. He’s the monkey not the organ grinder.
I am with you on this one. Personally I think it's quite plausible that GCHQ got excited about all the data they could hoover up from this, and that influenced the course of app design. I see no other reason not to use an off-the-pegg solution.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
I'm sure you're right that Warren would be a better President. Heck, I think @eadric would be a better President than Biden.
But I don't think that matters.
I think the second CV-19 wave in the US is going to toastify Trump.
It's all the economic damage of an actual lockdown, with none of the benefits of actually getting rid of the virus.
On topic, the fact that those ads insist on talking about "the most powerful office in the world" shows that American exceptionalism is alive and well. The US will struggle to adjust to a world in which China and the EU have much more relative power.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.
I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
My wife is very good friends with an ER doctor in Georgia, and she says that they had a floor full of CV-19 patients, and it went down and down, but they're now back at capacity again.
Hopefully Georgia can keep the problem as an irritant. But the risk has to be that cases go to 1,500/day and people largely self isolate, and you get all the economic nasties of the a lockdown, without actually getting rid of the virus.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
Errr, weren't the young more likely to be opposed to Europe in the 1975 referendum than older age groups?
That was my understanding too. 1975: older people were more strongly In, younger people were less strongly In 2016: very old people were on balance In, quite old people (the younger people from 1975) strongly Out, younger people on balance In
There was also a national In to Out shift, but the bulge was the same people; crudely the Baby Boomers.
Those who actually experienced the War and Generation EasyJet preferred continuing membership of the EU, the generation in-between went from lack of enthusiasm to strong antipathy.
I rechecked the BES just to make sure I wasn't going mad and indeed there was a straight correlation with age, the older you were the more in favour of the EC. The younger you were the more against.
Also the offer was different. In 1975 the question was whether to stay in the common market or not. It was simply an economic grouping. The brexit vote was whether to stay part of a sprawling supra-national organism that had greater powers than national governments and with its "ever closer union" credo had no discernable limits on its growth. A different concept entirely.
I voted to stay in 1975. Had I been in the UK for brexit I would have voted leave. I like the idea of a trade relationship with Europe. But not the rest.My views have not changed since 1975, but the question did.
There's a chunk of that as well. But there is also a generation- born in about 1950, young in 1975, long retired by 2016- who have been a lot less convinced about close institutional engagement with Europe than either their predecessors or their successors.
And there's another generation- born in about 1990, coming to adulthood as Ryanair and Easyjet became huge- who have grown up with a seamless movement around different countries. (Not me, I'm somewhere in between. My first passport was one of the beige cardboard ones you got from the Post Office).
We will have to see how their attitudes change over time.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
My wife is very good friends with an ER doctor in Georgia, and she says that they had a floor full of CV-19 patients, and it went down and down, but they're now back at capacity again.
Hopefully Georgia can keep the problem as an irritant. But the risk has to be that cases go to 1,500/day and people largely self isolate, and you get all the economic nasties of the a lockdown, without actually getting rid of the virus.
I'm in 1 of the 5 red counties north of Atlanta on the map you posted. Fulton and Cobb are the problem areas.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
People don't vote on headline numbers, they vote on how they personally are feeling.
Tell someone the Q3 GDP is up, but he still doesn't have a job, and he's not going to be saying "Whoopee!"
Arizona, where my business operates, reopened a month ago. It's now beginning to close down again, because new cases which had 222/day in late May are now (as of yesterday) 2,392.
People are going to stop going to clubs and bars and restaurants, irrespective of official guidance.
The economy will be grinding to a halt again, because people don't want to get CV-19, irrespective of what the Governor says.
And, of course, it will get into old peoples' homes (and there are lots of old people in Arizona).
Premature re-opening, followed by de facto lockdowns is a disaster for the Republicans. Because you don't eliminate the virus and you don't get the economy moving.
And for all the UK government is getting wrong, I think they (reluctantly) recognise this. It's how I get to sleep at night, anyway. On which note...
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
When was the last time a PBer was talking about having covid symptoms ?
Back in March and April it seemed a daily event.
We don't get out often enough to catch it.
Mrs PtP is now over the symptoms but sleeping about twelve hours a day as she recuperates.
Sorry to hear that Peter. Hope all goes well
I am in a similar position (tho not as close). I have close friends that caught it early and they STILL HAVE IT, one quite badly
I have an acquaintance, husband of a friend, who was on a ventilator for weeks. He has young kids and I fear he will never recover properly. Perhaps an invalid from now on. I hope I am wrong
My personal worry is for very close family members who are now suffering from lockdown, psychologically.
I hate this wretched disease
Thanks Eadric. It's not as bad as I maybe made it appear. She's completely over the virus. The exhaustion comes I believe from the related bacterial infections she incurred. Antiobotics did the trick but the system will take a while to recover strength. There appear to be no long term effects so a full recovery is very likely. The main concern is the virus flaring up again. We understand this does happen occasionally. She is a fit and strong person though and that plays in her favour. We've every reason for optimism but we'll post a bulletin here if things change.
It really is a weird, nasty and unpredictable bug. Best wishes to those you mention who have suffered.
On topic, the fact that those ads insist on talking about "the most powerful office in the world" shows that American exceptionalism is alive and well. The US will struggle to adjust to a world in which China and the EU have much more relative power.
The EU doesn't have more relative power, by 2050 the top 3 economies will be China, the US and India, well ahead of the EU and Japan
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think given them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
Germany - so far - seems to have done better on the tracing app, although it was launched only yesterday so it's a bit early to be sure. Other countries, not so much.
It isn't a question of trusting the politicians. They have explained (or rather the experts advising them have) exactly why they thought the Google/Apple approach didn't given them the information they needed. It is perfectly possible that they got that judgement wrong - the best being the enemy of the good, as @rottenborough said. If so, one could argue that they were incompetent, but you don't need to distrust their motives. In fact, it makes no sense to do so, cock-up beating conspiracy almost always.
The app is more or less irrelevant; it’s a nice to have addition, but is a long way from essential. What counts is having an effective track & trace system. That doesn’t need an app - S Korea didn’t have one (though tbf they had other means of accessing data). Germany has good public health infrastructure and they seem to have a clue about track & trace.
In other Atlanta news, the cop who killed Rayshard Brooks charged by the DA with 11 offences, including felony murder - a capital crime. The other cop charged with 3 offences and has turned state's evidence.
The Fulton county DA is in a runoff for reelection while under investigation.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
So why is it then that countries like Germany managed to set up a much better tracing system and why is it that other countries have taken the decision to use the type of app we refused to use?
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think give them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
Maybe the app was a bit of a distraction all along. Had we just gone for a competent manual tracing scheme in March, coupled a decent fast testing system and a generous enough system of quarantine pay to get full compliance, I imagine we would have been in a far better place than we are.
One of the things that bothers me a lot is that the government has gone for things- the app, the ventilators, the Nightingale hospitals- that have generated good headlines but not actually been as useful as old fashioned Public Health.
FWIW Britain comes in fourth, behind USA, Brazil and Mexico, but looking at the stats today I reckon India, Pakistan, will eventually outpace us, maybe Bangladesh too, and who knows about Africa
India is the second most populous nation on earth, for it not even to be in the top 3 would be a great result for Modi and unlike China it is not covering up its figures
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Unless that slavery is current, and not being perpetrated by white people. Then there's less discussion of it than at any time in anyone's life.
Or if wasn't current, and wasn't perpetrated by white people (e.g. the Arabs on Africans or the Africans on each other).
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by white people on other white people (e.g. the Romans or the Vikings).
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by some white people (e.g. the Portuguese).
The British/American slave trade was only an episode, and neither the largest nor the longest, in a global crime that most countries practised until quite recently, and, as you point out, still continues.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Unless that slavery is current, and not being perpetrated by white people. Then there's less discussion of it than at any time in anyone's life.
Or if wasn't current, and wasn't perpetrated by white people (e.g. the Arabs on Africans or the Africans on each other).
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by white people on other white people (e.g. the Romans or the Vikings).
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by some white people (e.g. the Portuguese).
The British/American slave trade was only an episode, and neither the largest nor the longest, in a global crime that most countries practised until quite recently, and, as you point out, still continues.
Roman slavery (for instance) had virtually nothing in common with the Atlantic trade. You don't hear of black slaves being trusted advisers of their owners, being freed and amassing huge fortunes, and so on.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
Getting Australia to make it significantly easier for UK citizens to move there would be one of the few tangible things that would genuinely create a feel-good factor.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
London is supposedly opening up. Yet these open markets, buses, shops are deserted. I shudder to think what this will do to the economy
Most disturbingly. Had a long chat with a very old friend in London on Skype today. The city she described is an absolutely behemoth of frenzied activity and carefree, bacchanalian consumption compared to what I observe up here. London can take a dip. We can't.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
London is supposedly opening up. Yet these open markets, buses, shops are deserted. I shudder to think what this will do to the economy
Most disturbingly. Had a long chat with a very old friend in London on Skype today. The city she described is an absolutely behemoth of frenzied activity and carefree, bacchanalian consumption compared to what I observe up here. London can take a dip. We can't.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
London is supposedly opening up. Yet these open markets, buses, shops are deserted. I shudder to think what this will do to the economy
Most disturbingly. Had a long chat with a very old friend in London on Skype today. The city she described is an absolutely behemoth of frenzied activity and carefree, bacchanalian consumption compared to what I observe up here. London can take a dip. We can't.
Where are you?
Newcastle area. She told tales of full parks and busy streets. Back to normal. Not seeing that. Although I appreciate that may be what one sees and another doesn't. For me the Tuesday and Wednesday were very quiet. After a rush on Monday.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
In my part of the world we are open completely, subject to social distancing (except when protesting). Gyms, bars - even the kids splash pool at the local park -are all open. Traffic is virtually back to normal, parking at the mall is back to normal. Folks here view the pandemic as part of everyday life, except for the old folks who need to keep safe.
Nice to hear. Can you say (roughly) where you are?
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
I'm in Atlanta GA.
I see. So not a virus 'hot spot' but not free either.
We're seeing an uptick in cases varying by county.. We are over 6 weeks into opening and just handling every day carefully, minimizing contact. We have eaten at restaurants several times, have walked thru the mall and gone to the supermarket several times - masks on those places - and movies are back imminently. The amusement parks are opening in the next few days.
That's interesting. Maybe that's the pattern for regions that haven't driven the virus out but don't have epic rates to contend with and decline the option of lockdown and its economic consequences.
It's been said endlessly by both state and federal folks that under no circumstances will there be another lockdown.
The reality is that if people don't feel safe, they won't go out, whatever the lockdown / no lockdown policy is.
London is supposedly opening up. Yet these open markets, buses, shops are deserted. I shudder to think what this will do to the economy
Most disturbingly. Had a long chat with a very old friend in London on Skype today. The city she described is an absolutely behemoth of frenzied activity and carefree, bacchanalian consumption compared to what I observe up here. London can take a dip. We can't.
Where are you?
Newcastle area. She told tales of full parks and busy streets. Back to normal. Not seeing that. Although I appreciate that may be what one sees and another doesn't. For me the Tuesday and Wednesday were very quiet. After a rush on Monday.
Getting Australia to make it significantly easier for UK citizens to move there would be one of the few tangible things that would genuinely create a feel-good factor.
It's funny how the UK wants Australia to move away from the much lauded Australian style points system.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/norway-suspends-virus-tracing-app-due-to-privacy-concerns
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/french-app-stopcovid-still-facing-120022367.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/how-did-the-covidsafe-app-go-from-being-vital-to-almost-irrelevant
Why not Amazon TV or Now TV ?
They have better things to spend money on I guess.
1975: older people were more strongly In, younger people were less strongly In
2016: very old people were on balance In, quite old people (the younger people from 1975) strongly Out, younger people on balance In
There was also a national In to Out shift, but the bulge was the same people; crudely the Baby Boomers.
Those who actually experienced the War and Generation EasyJet preferred continuing membership of the EU, the generation in-between went from lack of enthusiasm to strong antipathy.
Rollo will be a quite a few of them.
Sadly the trip was killed by the lockdown
I admit to the cynicism. It is based on decades of experience - some of it working in government and with government.
You are I think far too prone to believe in the essential goodness of our politicians. I do not trust them an iota until they have done something to earn it. You I think give them trust until they disappoint you.
No doubt that makes you a better person than me.
That is not to say there aren’t some lovely pubs up north as @Cyclefree says, simply that they are much farther and fewer between.
That's a win win and says much for all involved.
I think we can all sleep that little bit easier now.
Aside from that custom, and a dozen or so knitters buying food and drink, there were two regulars who would be there for the evening to drink. Two.
They've got to know the knitters quite well after the shock of us appearing from nowhere when we moved en masse from the previous, not-as-well-lit pub.
My point being that the idea that Britain retains a pub culture, as it did in days of yore, where men would meet up for a drink after work most days of the week, is dead. It's gone.
Pubs still hang on for other uses, as cafes with an alcohol licence, or as anonymous industrial drinking sheds, but the community pub as represented by The Old Vic, or The Rovers Return, has been long dead these many years.
A pub you go to after a Sunday walk is not the same thing. It's not a "pub culture".
In towns elsewhere the situation may be different. Can’t speak for those.
We’ll make sure we do it someday.
It isn't a question of trusting the politicians. They have explained (or rather the experts advising them have) exactly why they thought the Google/Apple approach didn't given them the information they needed. It is perfectly possible that they got that judgement wrong - the best being the enemy of the good, as @rottenborough said. If so, one could argue that they were incompetent, but you don't need to distrust their motives. In fact, it makes no sense to do so, cock-up beating conspiracy almost always.
At least most seem to have seen a lick of paint during lockdown
Having said that. The Feathers at Hedley on the Hill is as fine a location as any. Wonderful beer selection and a Michelin rosette if anyone ever ventures up here.
Walking to a country pub is as much an integral part of English culture as tea and scones.
Pubs have diversified, yes, and good that they have too, but The Pub remains the backbone of England. Indeed, as @eadric so eloquently puts it, it IS England.
One of the things that bothers me a lot is that the government has gone for things- the app, the ventilators, the Nightingale hospitals- that have generated good headlines but not actually been as useful as old fashioned Public Health.
It simply is an observerble fact that pubs are less frequented than a few decades ago. Some make it up on the food, being restaurants in all but name.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/9910463/pub-beer-sales-down-half-20-years/
I was thinking in fact more of the economic impact. US trade with Europe will be pretty much back to normal now that the pandemic is largey under control here, but Latin and South America are being hit hard and that must affect the US.
What about the Stock Market? I know it has made something of a recovery but if you continue to run at about 20,000 new cases and 1,000 or so deaths per day that has to have an effect on business and confidence.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1273375744492699650?s=20
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1273372446683471879?s=20
People are being forced to work in nail bars and car washes and on traveller sites, according to Leicestershire Police's latest assessment of 'modern day slavery' in the city and county.
Women are also being forced to work in prostitution, according to a new report by the officer who is overseeing the force's response to the growing threat.
Superintendent Shane O'Neill, of Leicestershire Police, said there is also evidence nationally of people working in slavery conditions in the catering and construction industries.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/police-lift-lid-modern-slavery-2637467
Concerns over the ongoing situation of up to 10,000 garment workers in Leicester, who are feared to be trapped in conditions of modern slavery and paid £3 an hour, have been raised in Parliament.
Andrew Bridgen, MP for North West Leicestershire, raised a question on Tuesday about the continuing state of working conditions in factories supplying the UK’s booming fast fashion industry, and sought a meeting with business secretary Kelly Tolhurst for clarity over enforcement of the national minimum wage.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jan/23/national-shame-mp-sounds-alarm-over-uk-fast-fashion-factories
But I don't think that matters.
I think the second CV-19 wave in the US is going to toastify Trump.
It's all the economic damage of an actual lockdown, with none of the benefits of actually getting rid of the virus.
Pubs have diversified into having great wine lists, serving beautiful, inventive food and - wow! - even attracting female guests.
None of these fantastic trends make them less of a pub. A pub is a pub, if it has wine, women and great food, even better.
Grey aircraft are supposed to be hard to acquire visually but it doesn't really make much difference in my experience. Also, the A330 MRTT is one aircraft that you actively WANT other aircraft to be able to find...
When was the last time a PBer was talking about having covid symptoms ?
Back in March and April it seemed a daily event.
But at the same time, Trump is unpopular, perhaps extremely unpopular. He had a narrow victory last time, against an incredibly unpopular Democratic candidate. This time, he gets an utterly bland opponent. And he gets a recession. And he gets a motivated Democratic base. And he gets a CV-19 crisis that's likely to still be raging in the US, while it's been solved in many other parts of the world.
Uncle Joe will be a terrible President. He has no spark. He is probably suffering from the early stages of dementia. What is he but "not Trump"?
I have no doubt the most likely situation is that the Democrats lose in 2024.
But for 2020, I think one has to now think that Trump is rightly the underdog.
I voted to stay in 1975. Had I been in the UK for brexit I would have voted leave. I like the idea of a trade relationship with Europe. But not the rest.My views have not changed since 1975, but the question did.
Tell someone the Q3 GDP is up, but he still doesn't have a job, and he's not going to be saying "Whoopee!"
Arizona, where my business operates, reopened a month ago. It's now beginning to close down again, because new cases which had 222/day in late May are now (as of yesterday) 2,392.
People are going to stop going to clubs and bars and restaurants, irrespective of official guidance.
The economy will be grinding to a halt again, because people don't want to get CV-19, irrespective of what the Governor says.
And, of course, it will get into old peoples' homes (and there are lots of old people in Arizona).
Premature re-opening, followed by de facto lockdowns is a disaster for the Republicans. Because you don't eliminate the virus and you don't get the economy moving.
That is my third closest boozer.
It dipped... and they reopened... and it's back at or around peak levels again.
More positively, it is at least not growing exponentially.
Hopefully Georgia can keep the problem as an irritant. But the risk has to be that cases go to 1,500/day and people largely self isolate, and you get all the economic nasties of the a lockdown, without actually getting rid of the virus.
And there's another generation- born in about 1990, coming to adulthood as Ryanair and Easyjet became huge- who have grown up with a seamless movement around different countries. (Not me, I'm somewhere in between. My first passport was one of the beige cardboard ones you got from the Post Office).
We will have to see how their attitudes change over time.
It really is a weird, nasty and unpredictable bug. Best wishes to those you mention who have suffered.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/22/exploitative-conditions-germany-to-reform-meat-industry-after-spate-of-covid-19-cases
What counts is having an effective track & trace system. That doesn’t need an app - S Korea didn’t have one (though tbf they had other means of accessing data).
Germany has good public health infrastructure and they seem to have a clue about track & trace.
The Fulton county DA is in a runoff for reelection while under investigation.
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/fulton-county-da-faces-election-runoff-battle-while-under-state-investigation/7ACT6BS25ZBCLHOOPT6C36I644/
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by white people on other white people (e.g. the Romans or the Vikings).
Or if it wasn't current and was perpetrated by some white people (e.g. the Portuguese).
The British/American slave trade was only an episode, and neither the largest nor the longest, in a global crime that most countries practised until quite recently, and, as you point out, still continues.
It's been a remarkably civil and thoughtful forum tonite. Something to do with the football back on?
Nite all.
London can take a dip. We can't.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/us-retail-sales-may-2020.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar&fbclid=IwAR3pwUNTumcUCRwv7p9VPX9_4JW1J-ppPgKn1jVROYcoDWLNjbCu98uSl8o
For me the Tuesday and Wednesday were very quiet. After a rush on Monday.
Given what we now know was Aristotle an accomplished scientist?