In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I disagree. I had a run this evening with a pal and then we bought a pint in a plastic cup and sat in the square chatting. It was such a nice way to spend an hour or so.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I agree on that, the question was who I would prefer. The US faces major structural issues around income inequality and, if you listen what companies are saying about the automation of jobs, it will be truly frightening in the next few years. Biden is too traditional a politician to deal with this. Trump, Warren and Sanders, though different, are more prepared to think out of the box.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
Public opinion is not on the side of the protesters.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
Yeah but statues are part of the street furniture in any city I've ever been to, irrespective of who they represent. Will we not have statues at all, or will they all be of the irrelevant in this country Mandela?
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
That figure is hugely pumped up by foreign students, mainly from China and India
It is going to absolutely CRASH in the next few years. The Tories will appear to have solved the immigration problem, whereas they will have done no such thing. It will just be a lot of universities going bust, and good: they are hotbeds of this Wokegasmic madness.
Let the universities die, let the lefty professors eat pebbles
That was my view but here is the thing that a university chancellor pointed out to me. Look at towns like Stoke, Wolverhampton etc that have seen a big increase in student numbers and where students are now important to the economy. If students are so uniformally woke, how have these towns trended more Conservative?
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
Johnson is gone next year would be my bet. The MPs - where the base has shifted radically from traditional Tory types to favouring Red Wall interests - will want someone to stand up to the mob. That's why I think Priti Patel is the better bet for next Cons leader / PM ahead of Rishi Sunak.
I agree Johnson goes next year. Not sure about Patel. Sunak seems likelier.
I think you're right about Boris; if anything, the risk is on him going earlier. He's not well, he's not doing well and he has always enjoyed the pursuit more than the possession. He's found a way of surviving PMQs; if it hadn't been for that, I could imagine him stomping off in a sulk because everyone is being so mean to him.
As for his successor; the next few years are likely to be a bit of a mess. Government is going to be difficult and Boris and Brexit-in-the-abstract are the only things holding the Conservative party and vote together right now. On top of that, there's the Covid fallout.
So if I were young, smart and ambitious, I might look to hold back for now. Take over after the defeat in 2024, be PM in 2029. It might be a nice job by then. So not Sunak as king, though maybe as kingmaker.
But someone has to take over. They need to be competent enough, ambitious enough and realising that it's now or never. Why doesn't that point to M. Gove?
If the Tories replace Boris, their most successful election winner since Thatcher and who still leads the polls with Gove, who makes cockroaches look popular, they would be insane
I don't think the Tories will force him out, I think he will step down of his own accord. I don't think a culture war suits him in the same way as flying the flag on Brexit. Plus there is the question of his health.
His health is fine and he sounds the right note on culture.
However if we do go into out and out cultural war then yes Priti Patel as a latter day British Asian Boudicca leading the chariots of the cultural conservative right against the woke left would be ideal
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
I think the better way to phrase this is "those who say they support BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52%"
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
He was as bad as Rhodes. Slaughtered the natives and dispossessed them of their land. A lot of the aristocracy’s wealth and others was based on this theft. The natives were deprived of any say in their government and of civil rights. Religious discrimination was rife.
By “natives” of course I mean the Irish.
Why would you want to celebrate such an individual? 😉
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
More like 30-40% is the estimate in some of the trade journals.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
Johnson is gone next year would be my bet. The MPs - where the base has shifted radically from traditional Tory types to favouring Red Wall interests - will want someone to stand up to the mob. That's why I think Priti Patel is the better bet for next Cons leader / PM ahead of Rishi Sunak.
I agree Johnson goes next year. Not sure about Patel. Sunak seems likelier.
I think you're right about Boris; if anything, the risk is on him going earlier. He's not well, he's not doing well and he has always enjoyed the pursuit more than the possession. He's found a way of surviving PMQs; if it hadn't been for that, I could imagine him stomping off in a sulk because everyone is being so mean to him.
As for his successor; the next few years are likely to be a bit of a mess. Government is going to be difficult and Boris and Brexit-in-the-abstract are the only things holding the Conservative party and vote together right now. On top of that, there's the Covid fallout.
So if I were young, smart and ambitious, I might look to hold back for now. Take over after the defeat in 2024, be PM in 2029. It might be a nice job by then. So not Sunak as king, though maybe as kingmaker.
But someone has to take over. They need to be competent enough, ambitious enough and realising that it's now or never. Why doesn't that point to M. Gove?
If the Tories replace Boris, their most successful election winner since Thatcher and who still leads the polls with Gove, who makes cockroaches look popular, they would be insane
I don't think the Tories will force him out, I think he will step down of his own accord. I don't think a culture war suits him in the same way as flying the flag on Brexit. Plus there is the question of his health.
His health is fine and he sounds the right note on culture.
However if we do go into out and out cultural war then yes Priti Patel as a latter day British Asian Boudicca leading the chariots of the cultural conservative right against the woke left would be ideal
As you can tell, that's my view on Patel on well which is why I backed her at 35/1....
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
We rarely agree on anything but certainly on Biden we’re on the same page . I like Warren and Sanders but they couldn’t win the key states needed . It’s not about piling up huge vote totals in states which the Dems would win anyway but getting over the line in places like Michigan. I think the Dems could have found a stronger candidate but against Trump he has a good chance but there’s a long way to go and the polls now should be treated with a lot of caution.
What a shower our lot are. Pathetically predictable.
IIRC the German app has been made open source - why don't we just change the user interface to English and use that?
Because PHE, the minister, someone, who knows insists we have a home-made version that doesn't use Apple/Google decentralised privacy-based solution.
No doubt the public inquiry will enlighten us.
In about five years time.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
India should have a permament seat, it is a nation of 1.4bn people.
Tiny France should have theirs taken away and their seat should either be given to the EU as a whole, or simply handed to Germany
The UK should of course be allowed to remain, forever, as we had the biggest empire in history.
Agreed and India would provide a counterweight to China, it would be interesting to see the reaction in France if their UN seat went to the EU certainly
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
Yeah but statues are part of the street furniture in any city I've ever been to, irrespective of who they represent. Will we not have statues at all, or will they all be of the irrelevant in this country Mandela?
My favourite statute is that of George Peabody slumped in a chair behind the royal exchange. Titan of a man, founder of the House of Morgan, and ultimately gave all his wealth to create the Peabody Estates.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
What on earth does "support for BLM" mean?
Does it mean support for the protests against the brutal killing of George Floyd?
Give ma a placard, I would support that. I don't know any sentient human being who wouldn't. It was cold blooded murder by cops. Hideous.
But Black Lives Matter as an official movement has such aims as "dismantling capitalism" and "defunding and disbanding the police".
I doubt 5% of the UK supports anything like that. Probably fewer.
I guess most people are just taking the words literally and connecting to the police murder. Not thinking about the details.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Anabobazina, you asked me a question, said I didn't reply and have now answered it.
Will you now answer my question - do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because I said I support Trump over Biden?
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
That figure is hugely pumped up by foreign students, mainly from China and India
It is going to absolutely CRASH in the next few years. The Tories will appear to have solved the immigration problem, whereas they will have done no such thing. It will just be a lot of universities going bust, and good: they are hotbeds of this Wokegasmic madness.
Let the universities die, let the lefty professors eat pebbles
That was my view but here is the thing that a university chancellor pointed out to me. Look at towns like Stoke, Wolverhampton etc that have seen a big increase in student numbers and where students are now important to the economy. If students are so uniformally woke, how have these towns trended more Conservative?
Wolverhampton SW is far less Tory than when represented by Enoch Powell and Nicholas Budgen.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
At the last election, the tipping point for people voting Conservative rather than Labour fell from 47 to 37.
All of my life, people have been arguing that the Conservatives are doomed because young people are left wing, and will remain left wing as they age.
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
That figure is hugely pumped up by foreign students, mainly from China and India
It is going to absolutely CRASH in the next few years. The Tories will appear to have solved the immigration problem, whereas they will have done no such thing. It will just be a lot of universities going bust, and good: they are hotbeds of this Wokegasmic madness.
Let the universities die, let the lefty professors eat pebbles
That was my view but here is the thing that a university chancellor pointed out to me. Look at towns like Stoke, Wolverhampton etc that have seen a big increase in student numbers and where students are now important to the economy. If students are so uniformally woke, how have these towns trended more Conservative?
Wolverhampton SW is far less Tory than when represented by Enoch Powell and Nicholas Budgen.
True but it has moved back to the Tories when Wolverhampton has seen more students.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
And if I'd asked you in 2016? Back then Rhodes must fall did not seem very mainstream.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
Please don't get Mrs Ed started on this!
In summary though, she is Black and hates the way the BLM movement claims to speak for Black people. She made the (fair) point the Democrats have done little for Black people in a long time (and, yes, I think 1965 was a long time ago)
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
Sometimes you need to let the fire burn strongly so it can burn itself out. The fear of the mob is strong with you. Is it a public school thing? Feels quite nineteenth century.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Answered that one thanks.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too
There's a massive space between "not thinking Churchill's statue should be ripped down" and "There are plenty of statues of scoundrels that should never have been put up in the first place". I know Centrist Dad is a boring position to hold, but whoever successfully occupies it, wins.
And a party that doesn't pay attention to all the generational shifts that happen (and my point is that there's more going on than Trendy University Campuses; the change from no CSEs to some GCSEs is just as important but neglected) deserves oblivion if it comes.
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
The right may have won the election but the left have long since won the culture war. The floodgates are now open and there is no stopping this.
The starters have only just been consumed, it’s main course next.
Have they? They may have done on gay rights, divorce and abortion, they certainly have not on uncontrolled immigration, or erasing patriotism and national sovereignty etc.
Figures show an estimated 282,000 more non-EU citizens came to the UK than left in 2019, the highest since the information was first gathered in 1975.
That figure is hugely pumped up by foreign students, mainly from China and India
It is going to absolutely CRASH in the next few years. The Tories will appear to have solved the immigration problem, whereas they will have done no such thing. It will just be a lot of universities going bust, and good: they are hotbeds of this Wokegasmic madness.
Let the universities die, let the lefty professors eat pebbles
That was my view but here is the thing that a university chancellor pointed out to me. Look at towns like Stoke, Wolverhampton etc that have seen a big increase in student numbers and where students are now important to the economy. If students are so uniformally woke, how have these towns trended more Conservative?
Wolverhampton SW is far less Tory than when represented by Enoch Powell and Nicholas Budgen.
Wolverhampton SW is a middle class seat and the wealthiest in the city
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
It’s ironic that the two presumed great champions of Parliamentary democracy in England - Simon de Montfort and Cromwell - were also both genocidal nutters.
There’s also something of an irony in that having fought a vicious war to impose Parliament on the king, once getting to power they both sidelined it to arrogate power to themselves.
Who could we have as a Parliamentary champion untainted by slaving? Disraeli perhaps, as the author of the Second Reform Act? But even he made some pretty unpleasant remarks about the Irish.
I think genocidal is not a word to be thrown out so lightly, particularly considering both standards of warfare (which is not to say it cannot be condemned) and non-battlefield/atrocity deaths arising from warfare counted as deliberate.
As to the wider point, it would be absurd to consider such figures as uncomplicated figures of parliamentary liberty. But you will know a lot better than me that people and events can have much wider and different impacts than they will have intended and even unintentional effects can be celebrated. We can celebrate Charles I for being inadequate to his times and contributing to how things developed more positively in the long run.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.
I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else
*shudders*
We* are all, very probably, descended from Rollo of Normandy if he has any any living descendants at all. It's just a factor of the maths.
(*At least those of us of mainly European descent.)
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
There is certainly no support for removing the Churchull statue, confederate leaders and slave traders being moved to a museum maybe
And if I'd asked you in 2016? Back then Rhodes must fall did not seem very mainstream.
Even 33% do not think Colston should fall and a majority think only legally.
Shall we cheer ourselves up with a gentleman's (or gentlewoman's) sweepstake on Which Statue Will Be Next
I'm going for Kitchener. Or maybe Cromwell
I will defend Cromwell's statues.
He put those arrogant monarchs in their place and gave us parliamentary supremacy.
All democrats should be positively tumescent about Cromwell.
I suspect we are more or less done with the statues. I'd be surprised if we ever get to double figures. The point has been made (and the statues were never the point anyway).
I hope you're right but I think you are wrong. When you feed a mob it is like feeding a fire, the mob just grows and gets hungrier.
The mad iconoclastic Left is on a roll. Why should they stop now?
Sometimes you need to let the fire burn strongly so it can burn itself out. The fear of the mob is strong with you. Is it a public school thing? Feels quite nineteenth century.
You didn't think the high walls surrounding Oxbridge colleges were purely ornamental, did you?
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too
There's a massive space between "not thinking Churchill's statue should be ripped down" and "There are plenty of statues of scoundrels that should never have been put up in the first place". I know Centrist Dad is a boring position to hold, but whoever successfully occupies it, wins.
And a party that doesn't pay attention to all the generational shifts that happen (and my point is that there's more going on than Trendy University Campuses; the change from no CSEs to some GCSEs is just as important but neglected) deserves oblivion if it comes.
I think the Conservatives should start to behave as if they trounced Labour.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
No doubt about it - Trump has had a rough few weeks. For all the discussions about who Biden will pick for veep, how real is his lead over Trump, and so on - one thing stands out. If Trump can bring the economy back he will win. Otherwise his chances are shrinking.
That's going to be difficult whilst the pandemic continues to rage, isn't it, Tim?
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
Used to be. Most people do not think the end of pubs would be a tragedy, even if they say it would be a tragedy, when judged by actions.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Is there some other horrid consequence we can use besides the chicken thing? I feel like I've heard about it so often I now get the impression it is the only bad thing that will happen.
Because they wanted to collect our data is my guess and did not give a fig about privacy issues. Why they wanted to collect data and what they intended doing with it I will leave to others.
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
Ms Cyclefree, you are far too prone to accuse politicians of bad motives. The government is largely incompetent, it is true, but on this issue they were quite reasonably following the expert medical advice. What the epidemiologists wanted the data for was specified early on: they wanted to be able to discover, early, that there is (for example) a cluster of cases in a particular town or area, and they were also very keen to discover exactly how the probability of infection depended on the duration of contact. That type of statistical analysis cannot be done with the Google/Apple approach. Those are undeniably sensible objectives, even if there is room for disagreement on whether they outweigh other considerations.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
What on earth does "support for BLM" mean?
Does it mean support for the protests against the brutal killing of George Floyd?
Give ma a placard, I would support that. I don't know any sentient human being who wouldn't. It was cold blooded murder by cops. Hideous.
But Black Lives Matter as an official movement has such aims as "dismantling capitalism" and "defunding and disbanding the police".
I doubt 5% of the UK supports anything like that. Probably fewer.
I guess most people are just taking the words literally and connecting to the police murder. Not thinking about the details.
Yes, I think so too. While there is a formal BLM organisation, the informal supporters willing to turn out are 100 times the numbers. XR is the same, and why opponents struggle to contain it too. Both organisations are organic and decentralised networks rather than formal.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
I think the better way to phrase this is "those who say they support BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52%"
That doesn't necessarily mean 52% now do.
Cool, if you want to pretend that polling doesn't exist that is fine but if you want me to believe that if the polling said that 95% of Americans deeply opposed BLMthat you wouldn't be talking about it then you can pull the other one that hath bells upon it.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
Used to be. Most people do not think the end of pubs would be a tragedy, even if they say it would be a tragedy, when judged by actions.
Yep. Use it or lose it, as my mate says as we head into another boozer.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
Utter rubbish.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
You are simply wrong.
All across the country there are good pubs and bad pubs, successful pubs and failing pubs.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Answered that one thanks.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Your kids are weird.
My wife is 24 and she and her friends used to go to pubs all the time (usually "the Spoons"- cheap, innit). The virus has stopped this but they will be straight back in when the Taverns of Albion reopen
Maybe they are. Weird that is. I merely am an elderly observer. Still reckon quite a number of pubs will go under. Many were treading water beforehand.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.
I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else
*shudders*
We* are all, very probably, descended from Rollo of Normandy if he has any any living descendants at all. It's just a factor of the maths.
(*At least those of us of mainly European descent.)
Maybe we should all just self-flagellate and apologise for the sins of our ancestors. The Jesuits can make sure we are doing it properly.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
Even most under 30s do not graduate from university, they are patriotic and do not think Churchill's statue should be ripped down and even on campuses there are plenty of silent patriots too
There's a massive space between "not thinking Churchill's statue should be ripped down" and "There are plenty of statues of scoundrels that should never have been put up in the first place". I know Centrist Dad is a boring position to hold, but whoever successfully occupies it, wins.
And a party that doesn't pay attention to all the generational shifts that happen (and my point is that there's more going on than Trendy University Campuses; the change from no CSEs to some GCSEs is just as important but neglected) deserves oblivion if it comes.
Young people become old people and old people are always more conservative. The Tories now win non graduates, they could keep winning on that basis forever as even with the young non graduates outnumber graduates.
Boris has a position entirely in tune with centrist dads, an inquiry on BAME equality, keep Churchill's statue.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
Please don't get Mrs Ed started on this!
In summary though, she is Black and hates the way the BLM movement claims to speak for Black people. She made the (fair) point the Democrats have done little for Black people in a long time (and, yes, I think 1965 was a long time ago)
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
Yes, but will that work when voters can see unemployment all around them?
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Answered that one thanks.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
Did you? I didn’t see it (genuinely)!
Alright, I believe you
I said Trump over Biden but, if it was Trump vs Warren, it would be a closer call.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They do on economic issues- though that's getting later with the growth of Generation Rent.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
At the last election, the tipping point for people voting Conservative rather than Labour fell from 47 to 37.
All of my life, people have been arguing that the Conservatives are doomed because young people are left wing, and will remain left wing as they age.
I'd like to see that split between homeowners by age and renters by age.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
I am descended, very probably, from Rollo of Normandy, who ordered that 100 slaves be ritually executed at his own funeral.
I may have to cancel myself and return to PB as someone else
*shudders*
We* are all, very probably, descended from Rollo of Normandy if he has any any living descendants at all. It's just a factor of the maths.
(*At least those of us of mainly European descent.)
Exactly. Go back that far and work out how many ancestors we each have. Either we are all descended from Rollo, or none of us is.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
It's only a couple of weeks ago we were being told how the BLM protests in the US were going to carry Trump back into the White House.
Young Conservative voters are few, but in terms of PC values, closer to young Lab voters. It is an age interest more than a right/left one.
They used to, on economic matters, but will that continue? On social and cultural issues they probably never have.
Yes. The 18-29 year olds who voted to Remain in 1975, were the 59 - 70 year olds who voted to Leave in 2016. It's well-established that peoples' views on immigration shift right as they age.
Errr, weren't the young more likely to be opposed to Europe in the 1975 referendum than older age groups?
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
No, but you may get trampled by the mob stampeding towards you in the hope that you will bet with them.
I know I am in a minority here but I continue to think Trump will win. I think there are a lot of people who want Trump to lose and look for every bit of information to back that view (and, yes, I am sure others would say the same about me). I just don't see it happening given what is happening on the ground.
All shades of opinion welcome here,Ed....at least as far as betting goes.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
Thank you Peter. Maybe I am being influenced too much by Mrs Ed - she is a Republican who has never voted for a Republican since George Bush in 2004. Up to a month ago, she said she wouldn't vote for Trump. She is now 100% behind him because of what has happened in the States.
Noted with thanks, but I won't ask for an explanation of the logic!
Please don't get Mrs Ed started on this!
In summary though, she is Black and hates the way the BLM movement claims to speak for Black people. She made the (fair) point the Democrats have done little for Black people in a long time (and, yes, I think 1965 was a long time ago)
She is in a very niche group.
Well, I'm not sure, There is a bit of polling to suggest younger Black American voters don't like the victim narrative and have a more favourable view of Trump. Her parents are definitely more old-school Black Democrats.
"Two of the UK's biggest companies have pledged to pay large sums to black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities after their roles in the slave trade were highlighted in a major academic database.
Greene King, one of the UK's largest pub chains, and Lloyd's of London, one of the world's biggest insurance firms, both said they would make payments.
"My great-great-great-great grand-father was a Quaker banker named Samuel Hoare (1751-1825). As a footnote, he was nothing to do with the well-known 18th and 19th century Hoare’s Bank – that was another family entirely. No, Sam Hoare was a banker, but he was also a Quaker and in those days people were less inclined to trust their money to any old bank, as they do today."
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
Francis Pryor, wrote the superb Making of the English Countryside. Also an OE and, judging by this conversation, a cousin of yours. And if Sam was a different operation, that does leave open the question what sorts of business the main bank was funding for 300 years, that had nothing at all to do with the Atlantic trade.
And so, as was so wearily predictable, and as was predicted by some - inc me - on here, the mob has moved on from statues to people
The problem for you may be that most people think this is unreasonable, but don't automatically transpose that thought onto the statues stuff, which has yet to find a socially normal champion.
This statues stuff is brilliant for the Conservatives. It fires up the base who thinks the left are about to seize control, reaffirms in the Red Wall voters what they hate about woke-ist middle class right on students and puts Starmer in a skewer because he can't condemn without p1ssing off his base [but also knows every day this goes on, the lower the chances he wins back these seats in 2024
That would be true if the Tories had a backbone, but they do not. They are terrified of the Woke Gestapo.
Nigel Farage is probably grinning with delight right now, somewhere in darkest Surrey, as he dreams up a name for his new party
Johnson is gone next year would be my bet. The MPs - where the base has shifted radically from traditional Tory types to favouring Red Wall interests - will want someone to stand up to the mob. That's why I think Priti Patel is the better bet for next Cons leader / PM ahead of Rishi Sunak.
I agree Johnson goes next year. Not sure about Patel. Sunak seems likelier.
I think you're right about Boris; if anything, the risk is on him going earlier. He's not well, he's not doing well and he has always enjoyed the pursuit more than the possession. He's found a way of surviving PMQs; if it hadn't been for that, I could imagine him stomping off in a sulk because everyone is being so mean to him.
As for his successor; the next few years are likely to be a bit of a mess. Government is going to be difficult and Boris and Brexit-in-the-abstract are the only things holding the Conservative party and vote together right now. On top of that, there's the Covid fallout.
So if I were young, smart and ambitious, I might look to hold back for now. Take over after the defeat in 2024, be PM in 2029. It might be a nice job by then. So not Sunak as king, though maybe as kingmaker.
But someone has to take over. They need to be competent enough, ambitious enough and realising that it's now or never. Why doesn't that point to M. Gove?
If the Tories replace Boris, their most successful election winner since Thatcher and who still leads the polls with Gove, who makes cockroaches look popular, they would be insane
I'm with you. They won't ditch him and people do not walk away from the top job voluntarily. So I think he fights and loses the next election.
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
Yes, but will that work when voters can see unemployment all around them?
I think (and obviously I can't speak for them) the key question will be who they trust to get them out of the hole. Having a virus wreck the economy is not the usual mismanagement story or banks bringing down the economy. Trump can also point to the fact that he wanted to get the economy moving again quicker than the Democrats wanted. I'm not sure the usual analysis of high unemployment = bad for the incumbent will work in November.
No, far from erasing history the movement has made for more discussion of slavery than any time in my life.
Yes and this movement has changed attitudes. It's amazing to see the change in US attitudes vs a year or two ago.
I haven't seen much comparable polling from UK, but it does feel now like things like taking down statues of racists now command public support, when it wouldn't have done before.
I wouldn't put a bet either way on this. My gut feel is that it has hardened a number of attitudes in both directions. I think most people have other more pressing problems to worry about but my feeling is that, if you are culturally conservative, you will become more entrenched and vice versa
Support for BLM has risen from 25% 3 years ago to 52% today.
What on earth does "support for BLM" mean?
Does it mean support for the protests against the brutal killing of George Floyd?
Give ma a placard, I would support that. I don't know any sentient human being who wouldn't. It was cold blooded murder by cops. Hideous.
But Black Lives Matter as an official movement has such aims as "dismantling capitalism" and "defunding and disbanding the police".
I doubt 5% of the UK supports anything like that. Probably fewer.
I guess most people are just taking the words literally and connecting to the police murder. Not thinking about the details.
Yes, I think so too. While there is a formal BLM organisation, the informal supporters willing to turn out are 100 times the numbers. XR is the same, and why opponents struggle to contain it too. Both organisations are organic and decentralised networks rather than formal.
Same as Momentum. But they imploded in the end
Interestingly I detect friction in my lefty friends between XR and BLM. The former feel that BLM is sucking up all the energy, and people who are generally politicised, on the left, have stopped caring so much about the climate.
I suspect they are right
I suspect not.
XR have a day of action planned for next week, so let's see. They usually get a good turnout.
There was a very good article (and I can't find the link annoyingly) that said Trump would be able to claim a rapid rebound in Q3 because, on a Q on Q basis, the numbers will look strong. Look at what he did with the May retail sales. That will be his tactic - absolute numbers won't look great but the comps will look good (QoQ/MoM, not YoY)
Yes, but will that work when voters can see unemployment all around them?
Yes, they're more likely to be persuaded by the size of their pay or welfare cheques than anything Fox news tells them.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Your kids are weird.
My wife is 24 and she and her friends used to go to pubs all the time (usually "the Spoons"- cheap, innit). The virus has stopped this but they will be straight back in when the Taverns of Albion reopen
Pretty sure the Spoons will reopen and survive. There is one in my local patch whose opening probably contributed to a couple of others finally going under.
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
If we survive I will invite you to my part of South Lakeland where I will show you walks and cycling routes and landscapes to die for and lots of really good pub/restaurants. As good as you get wherever you are.
I asked you earlier who you wanted to win the US election.
I don’t think I received an answer.
Sorry Anabobazina, I was away from the computer for hours. It wasn't deliberate.
Trump over Biden. I think Biden is very weak and not suited to dealing with the challenges the US faces. If it was Warren vs Trump, that would be a closer call.
Do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because of that?
Trump would have trounced Warren in my view and comfortably beaten Sanders, it is Biden giving the Democrats a chance
I was asking him who he favoured, not who would win
Answered that one thanks.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
Did you? I didn’t see it (genuinely)!
Alright, I believe you
I said Trump over Biden but, if it was Trump vs Warren, it would be a closer call.
Cripes. I meant I saw your answer but not your question...
In an open letter to the prime minister, more than 50 companies said plummeting beer sales and prolonged uncertainty had brought the pub and brewing industry to “a moment of maximum jeopardy” that could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.
The signatories – from global giants such as the Guinness owner Diageo to family brewers such as Adnam’s – urged Johnson to say by Friday whether the government would allow pubs to reopen from 4 July....
Yup. Tomorrow night would be good.
Someone told me that the hospitality sector is expecting an announcement tomorrow; let’s hope this letter is timed to align with that.
Far more than 100s closing I would say unless they sort this out. There are roughly 50K pubs. More than 1% are going to close. Way more I would guess.
A lot of pubs have been getting quiet for years. It wouldn't surprise me if half never reopen. Apart from a few city centre places, we just don't have much of a pub culture anymore.
Chillaxing with a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and Netflix is the modern way.
I would say most of those within walking distance of my house were already in a pretty bad way, on the edge, before this struck. There are a couple that will make it I reckon, maybe one or two others. The rest gone, sadly.
I have done my best over the years
It is tragic. Pubs ARE England.
I agree, but as Foxy says not everyone agrees anymore. The pubs near me are often near empty except on a Friday night. The clientele is decidedly middle to late aged.
My 2 kids, 20 and 16, would never dream of visiting a Pub. Neither do their friends. When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then. Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
I don’t say this to be rude, but there are a lot of crap pubs up north. That’s one reason why I preferring walking and cycling down south - the pubs are simply far superior. They more than make up for the less dramatic landscapes.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52752656
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Opinium-Political-Report-11th-June-2020.pdf
Like medieval millenarians, today's SJWs believe all that needs to be done to bring about a new world is to destroy the old one
BY JOHN GRAY"
https://unherd.com/2020/06/the-woke-have-no-vision-of-the-future/
Like medieval millenarians, today's SJWs believe all that needs to be done to bring about a new world is to destroy the old one
BY JOHN GRAY"
https://unherd.com/2020/06/the-woke-have-no-vision-of-the-future/
However if we do go into out and out cultural war then yes Priti Patel as a latter day British Asian Boudicca leading the chariots of the cultural conservative right against the woke left would be ideal
No doubt the public inquiry will enlighten us.
In about five years time.
Sam Hoare was part of the Templewood branch of the family - cousins dating back to the mid 1500s.
He wasn’t involved with the C.Hoare & Co business (he was part of Barnett Hoare that merged with, Lloyds, another of the family ventures) but Heath House was very much a family asset.
If the divide is moving from an economic to social (open/closed society) one, the Conservatives may have hitched their wagon to the wrong train.
We all know about the expansion of Higher Education since the 1990's, but I was recently reminded of another point.
Until 1998, you could leave school without taking GCSE exams. I was surprised it was that recent, but there you go.
The rules used to be that, if your birthday was early enough, you could leave school completely at Easter of 5th Year/ Year 11. And thinking back to my school days, there were people who did that. Left school, no exams, straight into a no-qualifications job.
Now that might have been the right thing for the people involved, but it's pretty unthinkable now. And without casting any aspersions, there's a definite correlation between education level and openness to an open society. Call it indoctrination if you want.
And the last generation who were allowed to leave without any qualifications at all? 16 in 1998, about 38 now...
That doesn't necessarily mean 52% now do.
By “natives” of course I mean the Irish.
Why would you want to celebrate such an individual? 😉
More like 30-40% is the estimate in some of the trade journals.
To be honest I was with you until recently but I detect a mood change now and I don't see things getting any better for him before November. They may well get very much worse.
I have bet accordingly.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2019#:~:text=This fall in work-related,the year ending June 2016.
What has Starmer got to do with Biden's campaign to turn Republicans away from Trump?
Possibly there was someone keen on data collection and its uses in government, who can say.
When I was 16 I couldn't seem to stay out. I looked much older than my age then.
Pubs are in long term decline and have been for years.
Will you now answer my question - do I get mobs round my house and calls for my employer to sack me because I said I support Trump over Biden?
All of my life, people have been arguing that the Conservatives are doomed because young people are left wing, and will remain left wing as they age.
I thought he had an interesting observation.
Perhaps in your local area / lifestyle that’s the case.
Yet the pubs are booming here (or were) - many are food havens, and out in the southern countryside they provide a network of boltholes for cyclists, walkers, travellers and tourists.
Sitting in front of the telly isn’t a comparable activity.
You are simply wrong.
It would be government policy by the end of next week.
In summary though, she is Black and hates the way the BLM movement claims to speak for Black people. She made the (fair) point the Democrats have done little for Black people in a long time (and, yes, I think 1965 was a long time ago)
The fear of the mob is strong with you. Is it a public school thing? Feels quite nineteenth century.
I asked you a question, now do the courtesy of answering that.
And a party that doesn't pay attention to all the generational shifts that happen (and my point is that there's more going on than Trendy University Campuses; the change from no CSEs to some GCSEs is just as important but neglected) deserves oblivion if it comes.
As to the wider point, it would be absurd to consider such figures as uncomplicated figures of parliamentary liberty. But you will know a lot better than me that people and events can have much wider and different impacts than they will have intended and even unintentional effects can be celebrated. We can celebrate Charles I for being inadequate to his times and contributing to how things developed more positively in the long run.
(*At least those of us of mainly European descent.)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1270011494080659456?s=20
There is no polling yet on Rhodes
Winter?
Insane. Germany will have had an app for six months by then.
Funny how people don't want to talk about those.
What a classic case this is.
As there always has been and I'm sure will be.
Still reckon quite a number of pubs will go under. Many were treading water beforehand.
Boris has a position entirely in tune with centrist dads, an inquiry on BAME equality, keep Churchill's statue.
I said Trump over Biden but, if it was Trump vs Warren, it would be a closer call.
XR have a day of action planned for next week, so let's see. They usually get a good turnout.
https://twitter.com/UN/status/1262322788687323136