Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris looks as though he’s survived the Cummings lockdown road

1246789

Comments

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562

    YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.

    If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
    Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.

    If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
    So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    HYUFD said:
    How many new cases per day has France now ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    Chris said:

    In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.

    Please don't try to be too clever about this.
    Around 80,000 died in the UK from flu in 1968/69. If you take population into account, that would be equivalent to about 100,000 today.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    Cyclefree said:

    I’m not.
    Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.

    I won't waste any more time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Cyclefree said:

    I’m not. Lockdowns have been imposed worldwide. The WHO considers TB to be a pandemic but I am struck by the different reaction by them and the countries where it happens. I suspect it is because we have lived with TB for a long time and this virus is new. It is inconsistent but there it is.

    Anyway I’ve given my answer. The lockdown has been necessary in order to prevent what seemed to be likely - a very large number of deaths, possibly into the hundreds of thousands. It is what happens next I am raising.
    And rightly so.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:



    1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.

    I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.

    Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals

    Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.

    We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,932
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Osaka will let clubs, bars and gyms reopen on Monday
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/osaka-reopen-bars-gyms/
    ...The prefecture also drew up its own guidelines to prevent infections, which, among other things, call for concert attendees to be seated during the events in principle.

    To reopen, the facilities will be required to make a list of customers and introduce a system developed by the prefectural government for the tracking of infected people using QR codes.

    The prefectural government will consider making business suspension requests again if a cluster of infections is found...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Nigelb said:

    I wouldn't for a moment be an apologist for Youtube. I just thought the particular idea a potentially useful one.
    It’s come across very badly with people on Youtube. Mostly because the WHO version of events to which they point, is seen by Americans as excessively Sinophillic.

    Although it’s definitely worse with Twitter, whose ‘fact check’ of Trump’s Tweet was an opinion piece on CNN, that unsurprisingly disagreed with the President.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    Nigelb said:

    I'm glad someone else noticed that. It's disturbing that the politicisation of the office appears to be becoming routine.

    I very much appreciate your arguments on behalf to the socially undistanceable industries.
    It's a hard problem, on which my only useful thought for now is that mass population testing ought to be able, in about a month's time, to give us a far better idea of the extent of infection across the country, and what percentage of the population might be immune.
    Such information would make developing policies to open up much easier.
    I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!

    Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.

    What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Argh
    kjh said:

    I know that is why it is scary. Does he know or think that? I never thought I would see a group of heavily armed men 'storm' a State Parliament, but they have. The thought that always go through my mind is that if they were black that wouldn't have been tolerated and there would probably have been a shoot out.

    We can see excuses developing for the election being declared rigged.
    Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    edited May 2020
    Tokyo nears phase two of virus recovery plan as Osaka to fully reopen

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/coronavirus-tokyo-phase-two-osaka-reopen/
    ...The brisk pace and disjointed manner in which these orders are being lifted in different parts of the country, however, are drawing criticism and concern.

    Under Tokyo’s plan, social distancing and business closure requests will be peeled back in three phases to reopen society and reboot the capital’s economy while taking precautionary measures to prevent a second wave of infections.

    Tokyo, one of the last prefectures to be cleared, will enter phase two on Monday, Koike said at a meeting Friday of the metropolitan government’s coronavirus task force.

    “As we move closer to reopening the city, now is when the risk of a second wave is at its highest,” Koike said Friday. “We need to prioritize both the local economy and the well-being of residents.”...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Sandpit said:

    So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
    Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    IshmaelZ said:

    From 2000

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/790609.stm

    "More than 1,000 people die every year after falling down stairs, new figures reveal.
    Stairs are the place where most deaths and serious injuries happen in the home."

    Edit: in context that looks at first sight as if it's about the elderly, but it's everybody.
    Thank you - the fact that your link is from 2000 illustrates the paucity of data, maybe. But the main figure I was questioning was 250,000 ending up in hospital having fallen down stairs. This seems to be the figure for all falls, not stairs.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322
    Cyclefree said:

    I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.

    Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.

    So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
    We had no capability to do so in 68 and 57 same for TB when it was a problem until we did. It was just one of those things.

    Re the WHO and 'these countries' I'm guessing because this is new, there is a plan, it is in the media, etc, rather than something you have been living with, but shouldn't have to. Not acceptable I know, but dependent upon 1st world and WHO to help and don't or do little because they are juggling so many balls and it is not in the headlines every day. Same as wars and starvation and diseases, etc happening all over the world that we ignore.

    It is depressing, but the most important thing you can do for your health and well being is be born in the right place.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Cyclefree said:

    Ooh, ooh will they stop us buying Huawei? Oh dear.

    There is only one way to stand up to bullies. Let’s see if our brave politicians, so keen to face down the bullying MSM, will have the balls for this one.
    If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in China
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Mr Dancer I'm afraid to say there is no 'balance'. I wish there were, but I don't think there is.

    The choice is stark.

    But I think that's all there is.
    Guernsey is introducing 1m social distancing "within controlled environments" - eg sit-down restaurants where it will be easy to track who was sitting at what table. That presumably will make life a little easier.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/29/100-mps-demand-extension-self-employed-lifeline/

    "More than 100 MPs have demanded that a lifeline self-employment support scheme is extended amid fears millions of workers face ruin if it ends on Monday.

    Politicians from all major parties – including four Conservatives – called on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the programme until lockdown measures are relaxed further.

    The scheme is paying 2.3 million self-employed workers up to £2,500 a month. If this support is cut, huge numbers could find they are unable to keep up with bills because they have effectively been banned from doing business by state decree."

    Shit gets real for this government much sooner than anyone thinks it does. I think we are all suffering from normalcy bias like eadric said we were, we have just switched to the new normal to be biased to.

    This is why squandering the amount of goodwill the government has squandered on Cummings is suboptimal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    Chris said:

    Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.

    I won't waste any more time.
    The 1.5 million figure is not spurious at all. It comes from WHO information and I made it absolutely clear that it - and the figure for infections - was a worldwide figure in my posts and in my thread header, here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/24/social-distancing-how-far-how-long-for/.

    So don’t make unfounded accusations against me please.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.
    He's been going post op for almost a year, but it keeps getting delayed. Don't forget this when he eventually has it and does


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
    Refusing 3m British passport holders of the the right to live here for over 30 years, and then offering to extend their visas from 6-12 months when over 90% have given them up isnt some great heroic human rights act by the UK. As those on the right are so fond of describing things, it is virtue signalling, for no-ones benefit at the cost of our relationship with China.

    Give immediate citizenship to all 3m original BNO holders (well those still alive of course) - well that would make a real difference, so could be a consideration, even if the cost is bigger. But the UK electorate would never accept that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Indonesia? World's third most populous democracy and largest Muslim nation.

    https://twitter.com/AndersFoghR/status/1266306131577565185?s=20
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170
    Sandpit said:

    So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
    We already did that in 1997.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    Argh

    Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?
    Funny you should say that because originally I had something on those lines in my reply, but deleted it because it opened a can of worms, mainly because there has been gerrymandering going on for sometime well before Trump so what is happening now is an extension of that and of course it is one thing to rig an election, but another to do it successfully enough to win, so not simple.

    So I deleted what I was about to post.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924
    "Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
    So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,287
    Cyclefree said:

    I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!

    Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.

    What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
    They have been incredibly dilatory on several things; this is one of the more consequential ones.
    In the meantime 'working incredibly hard 24 hrs a day' etc...
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Andy_JS said:

    "Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/

    'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after this :wink:
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562

    Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals

    Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.

    We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
    And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.

    My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.

    Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    Dillie Keane's "Song for Dominic Cummings":
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,562
    Dura_Ace said:

    We already did that in 1997.
    There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Cyclefree said:

    There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
    Did anyone expect something else to happen?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Sandpit said:

    So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
    If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.

    We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.

    I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.

    We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Did anyone expect something else to happen?
    Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.

    And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Chris said:

    Dillie Keane's "Song for Dominic Cummings":
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk

    Quite brilliant and, I suspect, reflecting thoughts and fears of some people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Nigelb said:
    We locked down a bit after France so are reopening a bit after too
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170
    eek said:



    And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.

    They'll be dancing in the streets of Hartlepool.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Cyclefree said:

    And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.

    My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.

    Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.
    Except that is not true is it, through the furlough scheme this Government has intervened more than any Tory government since Macmillan and provided far more support to businesses and workers than many other governments have
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    eek said:

    Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.

    And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
    What??? Have them come over here? And steal all our jobs???!???
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,779
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
    My guess is that China would retaliate by disallowing dual citizenship for Hong Kong residents, as is already the case for Chinese nationals. BNO passport holder would either have to renounce that status or lose their right to HK residency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited May 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    We already did that in 1997.
    We gave Hong Kong autonomy within China.

    Xi is acting the equivalent way to Boris abolishing most powers of the Scottish Parliament
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after this :wink:
    And 10% of us have become "informers". Nice.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2020

    If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.

    We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.

    I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.

    We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
    So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?

    It’s a view, I suppose.

    Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after this :wink:
    Gained weight? They'll die faster if there's a 2nd wave.

    UK
    26% obesity, 550 deaths per million

    Japan
    3% obesity, 7 deaths per million.

    Govt, NHS and PHE together have shot themselves in the foot by turning more people into couch potatoes.

    But it's good business for vaccine companies and the Gates Foundation to have fat, unhealthy people with weak immune systems. So I expect we'll carry on with a policy that doesn't at all seem to 'follow the science'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    eek said:

    Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.

    And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
    Just like the Ugandan Asians in the 70s
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Ooh, impressive, and not too far from MArc Brunel's Thames Tunnel where it all began.

    Where's JosiasJessop these days, by the way? I do hope JJ is well.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Sandpit said:

    So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?

    It’s a view, I suppose.

    Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
    Standing up for human rights by pointless virtue signalling.....those govts wont do anything to actually significantly help BNO passport holders or the people of Hong Kong, they are just playing to the gallery, whilst simultaneously damaging our relationship with China further.

    If they were willing to help significantly, that would something I could support. Extending a visa from 6-12 months is not that. They could just do a Dover-Calais-Dover day trip to extend their visa currently if they wanted 12 months.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in China
    Joking aside the risk I'm worried about is whether they would deport British citizens like my cousin - separating him from his HongKonger wife
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,924

    Did anyone expect something else to happen?
    I always thought that China would lose patience with Hong Kong about 20 years after the handover. They wouldn't be able to honour the 50 year agreement.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    Fishing said:

    I'm not sure it's inevitable. The government has little to gain by holding one.

    And even if it is, they might be able to fudge the terms of reference by making it about lockdown instead.

    Or pick a friendly chairman, like Blair did for the inquiry into the death of David Kelly.
    All BAU in the zero-accountability nation. The UK stinks.
  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70
    What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,709
    Scott_xP said:
    I'm optimistic that more of us have immunity than is thought, but I do think the Government has gone too early on gatherings, another two or three weeks would be more sensible. Why take the risk?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Deafbloke said:

    What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?

    He won a majority at the next election :wink:
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Concerning Hong Kong and cummings:
    What in the world do we expect? Both arguably wrong and both tribalist.
    They do it because they can.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    Scott_xP said:
    Crazy. Things could get very ugly in the US.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,572
    Scott_xP said:
    I'm definitely worried we are doing this too soon. The signs are we have one of the highest death burdens, so we are badly hit AND we were late into lockdown.

    If R is at 0.9 now, and was at 2.5 before lockdown... then being 1 week late on the lockdown means we need an extra 9 weeks to get back to the same place.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    Deafbloke said:

    What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?

    I was too busy having a life at the time of that scandal. Was it ever alleged that Cameron knew what had been going on when he appointed Coulson?

    The one thing I do remember was Cameron being ticked off by the judge for giving a statement before all the charges had been decided upon by the jury.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited May 2020
    https://twitter.com/BBCJayneMcC/status/1266317029109305344?s=20

    TBH think that's a bit better than "Stay Alert"
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,274

    He won a majority at the next election :wink:
    Cameron 'won' the 2015 because he (and the SNP) took seats from the LibDems. He actually lost seats to Labour.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    If only they built the Bakerloo, Central, Jubilee, Piccadilly, Victoria, and Waterloo & City lines to that diameter :lol:
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,021
    edited May 2020

    Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.
    You are completely ignoring the political damage unless you are claiming thee hasn't been any.

    All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.

    You are attempting to dress it up as a Trumpton-style "Boris successfully takes on the media" story. I really don't think that is how it is being seen at all, in fact I've not talked to a single person who has expressed that sort of view or anything close to it and the polls certainly aren't picking it up either.

    If you are correct you must surely expecting Boris to move back to the sort of favourability ratings he had a couple of weeks ago and 20% leads for the Tories. No?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656

    He won a majority at the next election :wink:
    Cameron ignored Coulson's warning not to hire *checks notes* Dominic Cummings. The rest is history, at least for David Cameron.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    I fear it’s going to be a very long summer in the USA. An awful lot of newly unemployed, culture war in full swing, politicisation of everything and an election in November.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    What action should the UK take to protect their human rights?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,216
    Andy_JS said:

    "Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/

    I've maintained a steady 11 stone througout lockdown :innocent:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Andy_JS said:
    Both statements are very probably true, you could have 1000 in a crowd, 999 peaceful, 1 an arsonist.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031

    How would you reform it? Proportional representation is one way to break the local party monopolies...
    No shit Sherlock.

    Which is why it never happens.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Unkind of you to mock such an insightful observation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,656
    Is that a tweet from the 1950s? The idea of a horseshoe-shaped graph of authoritarianism versus left/right-ness has been around for decades.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,170
    OllyT said:



    All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.

    I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.

    This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Scott_xP said:
    Hospital admissions up?
    What data is that based on?
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 258
    HYUFD said:

    Just like the Ugandan Asians in the 70s
    I've worked with a few (1st and 2nd generation), top guys/girls.

    I'd honestly say giving the remaining BOP holders a path to citizenship would be the first thing in a long time to make me proud of this Country. Ok, the realpolitic is ugly, but things are only going one way there, and the idea that we could straddle the US-China divide seems to be wishful thinking. Giving a few hundred thousand ex-colonial subjects a escape route from authoritarianism seems like a no brainer. Yes, maybe the political capital could be saved for other things, but if we do want to demonstrate the values of a Internationalist, post-brexit UK (I know, I know), this would be the way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited May 2020
    Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Sandpit said:

    Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops, or media provoking the crowd?
    Laughable hypocrisy, what happened to standing up for human rights?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.

    This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
    So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,981
    edited May 2020

    Hospital admissions up?
    What data is that based on?
    Talking horseshit...deaths are as we know well down from peak, as are hospital admissions...

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1266285490703003648?s=19
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Hospital admissions up?
    What data is that based on?
    There is a single data point in London.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Sandpit said:

    Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?
    You get one guess what colour the reporter is:

    https://edition.cnn.com/profiles/omar-jimenez
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.

    This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
    The snobbery is strong with this post.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Reported deaths up is also true - up vs weekend and also up vs last week, but the word reported is important.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642

    Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.
    So you expect Boris's personal ratings and the Tory polling lead to bounce back rapidly to where they were? Damage temporary?

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Deafbloke said:

    What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?

    What was the general level of name recognition for Coulson vs Cummings at the height of the crisis? And wasn't it about stuff that happened before Cameron employed him? With tim and mickpork gone it's a struggle to remember any of the detail.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Sandpit said:

    Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?

    In the clip its very clear - the (black) reporter is polite and calm - says we were here before you arrived - where would you like us to move to? He asks several times - but the (white) cops arrest him - and his team, anyway. On live TV.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    Nigelb said:


    The Scottish dry bar...
    Oxymoron of the day, unless 'dry' is preceded by 'drunk'.

    Mind you I know some young hipsters in our neighbourhood are planning an alcohol free cocktail bar for when the some sort of normality returns. The East End of Glasgow is changing.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Is that a tweet from the 1950s? The idea of a horseshoe-shaped graph of authoritarianism versus left/right-ness has been around for decades.
    That cannot be from the 50s as the author can hardly be into his teens yet.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,642

    So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?
    Maybe, but he doesn't have to vote Labour, only split the Tory vote. And your attitude "we can do what we like, they'll never vote Labour" is a little dangerous from your perspective.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,078
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.

    This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
    The thing is that the Dom C theory that most scandals don't cut through, so stuff 'em is true, on average, most of the time.

    Until the one that does cut through happens. And cut-through is pretty unpredictable.

    To take an analogy I think I picked up here, blanking out all "scandals" is like picking up pennies from the path of a steamroller. Most days, you end up ahead. Until the day you don't.

    Incidentally, isn't "misunderstanding low-probability high-hazard events" one of the things Dom accuses the British Governing Class of not getting?
Sign In or Register to comment.