Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
Around 80,000 died in the UK from flu in 1968/69. If you take population into account, that would be equivalent to about 100,000 today.
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
I’m not.
Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
I’m not. Lockdowns have been imposed worldwide. The WHO considers TB to be a pandemic but I am struck by the different reaction by them and the countries where it happens. I suspect it is because we have lived with TB for a long time and this virus is new. It is inconsistent but there it is.
Anyway I’ve given my answer. The lockdown has been necessary in order to prevent what seemed to be likely - a very large number of deaths, possibly into the hundreds of thousands. It is what happens next I am raising.
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.
To reopen, the facilities will be required to make a list of customers and introduce a system developed by the prefectural government for the tracking of infected people using QR codes.
The prefectural government will consider making business suspension requests again if a cluster of infections is found...
Otherwise, surely they would have banned him by now for his own sake.
It is bizarre what twitter is doing. They refuse to ban Nazi's (except in Germany) but now they are doing this with Trump's tweet.
I Don't Get it.
Presumably they’re trying to get Trump off their platform, by continually challenging everything he says.
The risk is that they upset politicians enough that a bipartisanan bill removing their S230 protections gets through, turning them into a publisher that can be sued for libel for anything false and defamatory posted on their site.
Another might be to declare themselves a publisher in respect of posters who have more than a certain number of followers (more than a million, for example) ?
YouTube have been deleting a lot of videos that question the WHO view of events, or that opine on whether a total lockdown is worth the economic cost of it.
They also pulled Michael Moore’s documentary on “big green” based on a spurious copyright takedown.
They’re also making extensive use of ‘demonetising’ videos they don’t like (refusing to run ads alongside them), which is a dealbreaker for independent commentators who don’t get paid as a result, and ‘shadowbanning’ (delsiting a video from search and recommend algorithms) meaning videos get a fraction of their usual audience.
They’re being a lot more evil than Twitter or Facebook - what was Google’s original company motto?
I wouldn't for a moment be an apologist for Youtube. I just thought the particular idea a potentially useful one.
It’s come across very badly with people on Youtube. Mostly because the WHO version of events to which they point, is seen by Americans as excessively Sinophillic.
Although it’s definitely worse with Twitter, whose ‘fact check’ of Trump’s Tweet was an opinion piece on CNN, that unsurprisingly disagreed with the President.
I suspect that the Durham affair has been a negative sum game which has hurt more or less everyone. I would put the losers in order of loss as:
Public health (destroyed credibility and clarity of messaging) Government's overall credibility (public trust down significantly) Boris Johnson (shown to be weak and over-dependent on Cummings) Journalists and the media (failed to dislodge Cummings) Tory MPs (have mailbags heaving with angry letters from voters) Dominic Cummings (SpAd shouldn't be the story).
Only real winners: Labour (notably Keir Starmer) for cool handling of crisis and as beneficiary of public rage at government, and for whom Cummings staying on is best outcome.
I would move Tory Mps into the neutral column. I was surprised and pleased how many were willing to take a stand.
Sadly given how vindictive Orville and Harris are it probably means the pool of potential ministers is now 60 lower, and we were desperately short on talent (well basic competence would do) already.
Tory MPs “took a stand” in the same way that Labour MPs “took a stand” over anti-semitism ie a bit of hand-wringing, a Tweet or email and absolutely no action at all. They go into the “pathetic” column.
I would also add the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, into the losers column. She has trashed what little reputation she had Shami-style by showing that she has no understanding of the A-G’s role.
I'm glad someone else noticed that. It's disturbing that the politicisation of the office appears to be becoming routine.
I very much appreciate your arguments on behalf to the socially undistanceable industries. It's a hard problem, on which my only useful thought for now is that mass population testing ought to be able, in about a month's time, to give us a far better idea of the extent of infection across the country, and what percentage of the population might be immune. Such information would make developing policies to open up much easier.
I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!
Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.
What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
So he will get himself banned from twitter then refuse to leave when he loses the election as his right to free speech wasnt heard. If the remaining adults in the Republican party dont take back control at that time, it might be the last US presidential election in decades (or at least the last with more than one candidate allowed).
Impossible under the US constitution
You are right but we are talking Trump here!
Yes but short of a civil war he cannot overrule the US Supreme Court or the US Congress
I know that is why it is scary. Does he know or think that? I never thought I would see a group of heavily armed men 'storm' a State Parliament, but they have. The thought that always go through my mind is that if they were black that wouldn't have been tolerated and there would probably have been a shoot out.
We can see excuses developing for the election being declared rigged.
Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?
Under Tokyo’s plan, social distancing and business closure requests will be peeled back in three phases to reopen society and reboot the capital’s economy while taking precautionary measures to prevent a second wave of infections.
Tokyo, one of the last prefectures to be cleared, will enter phase two on Monday, Koike said at a meeting Friday of the metropolitan government’s coronavirus task force.
“As we move closer to reopening the city, now is when the risk of a second wave is at its highest,” Koike said Friday. “We need to prioritize both the local economy and the well-being of residents.”...
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
I keep reading this data on falling down stairs, and I cannot source it - I've done some research. The quarter of a million figure is for all falls requiring hospital admission, not stairs - many of these will be outside the home, caused by ice, dodgy pavements, fragility etc. I really can't find anything on specifically falling down stairs that looks reliable. The nearest I got was c. 1,000 very elderly people a year die from falls.
If somebody has a reliable source, I'm quite happy to withdraw my suspicion that this is nonsense.
"More than 1,000 people die every year after falling down stairs, new figures reveal. Stairs are the place where most deaths and serious injuries happen in the home."
Edit: in context that looks at first sight as if it's about the elderly, but it's everybody.
Thank you - the fact that your link is from 2000 illustrates the paucity of data, maybe. But the main figure I was questioning was 250,000 ending up in hospital having fallen down stairs. This seems to be the figure for all falls, not stairs.
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
We had no capability to do so in 68 and 57 same for TB when it was a problem until we did. It was just one of those things.
Re the WHO and 'these countries' I'm guessing because this is new, there is a plan, it is in the media, etc, rather than something you have been living with, but shouldn't have to. Not acceptable I know, but dependent upon 1st world and WHO to help and don't or do little because they are juggling so many balls and it is not in the headlines every day. Same as wars and starvation and diseases, etc happening all over the world that we ignore.
It is depressing, but the most important thing you can do for your health and well being is be born in the right place.
Ooh, ooh will they stop us buying Huawei? Oh dear.
There is only one way to stand up to bullies. Let’s see if our brave politicians, so keen to face down the bullying MSM, will have the balls for this one.
If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in China
Miss Cyclefree, indeed. Difficult balance to strike, though.
Mr Dancer I'm afraid to say there is no 'balance'. I wish there were, but I don't think there is.
The choice is stark.
But I think that's all there is.
Guernsey is introducing 1m social distancing "within controlled environments" - eg sit-down restaurants where it will be easy to track who was sitting at what table. That presumably will make life a little easier.
"More than 100 MPs have demanded that a lifeline self-employment support scheme is extended amid fears millions of workers face ruin if it ends on Monday.
Politicians from all major parties – including four Conservatives – called on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the programme until lockdown measures are relaxed further.
The scheme is paying 2.3 million self-employed workers up to £2,500 a month. If this support is cut, huge numbers could find they are unable to keep up with bills because they have effectively been banned from doing business by state decree."
Shit gets real for this government much sooner than anyone thinks it does. I think we are all suffering from normalcy bias like eadric said we were, we have just switched to the new normal to be biased to.
This is why squandering the amount of goodwill the government has squandered on Cummings is suboptimal.
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
I’m not.
Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.
Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.
He's been going post op for almost a year, but it keeps getting delayed. Don't forget this when he eventually has it and does
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
Refusing 3m British passport holders of the the right to live here for over 30 years, and then offering to extend their visas from 6-12 months when over 90% have given them up isnt some great heroic human rights act by the UK. As those on the right are so fond of describing things, it is virtue signalling, for no-ones benefit at the cost of our relationship with China.
Give immediate citizenship to all 3m original BNO holders (well those still alive of course) - well that would make a real difference, so could be a consideration, even if the cost is bigger. But the UK electorate would never accept that.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
So he will get himself banned from twitter then refuse to leave when he loses the election as his right to free speech wasnt heard. If the remaining adults in the Republican party dont take back control at that time, it might be the last US presidential election in decades (or at least the last with more than one candidate allowed).
Impossible under the US constitution
You are right but we are talking Trump here!
Yes but short of a civil war he cannot overrule the US Supreme Court or the US Congress
I know that is why it is scary. Does he know or think that? I never thought I would see a group of heavily armed men 'storm' a State Parliament, but they have. The thought that always go through my mind is that if they were black that wouldn't have been tolerated and there would probably have been a shoot out.
We can see excuses developing for the election being declared rigged.
Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?
Funny you should say that because originally I had something on those lines in my reply, but deleted it because it opened a can of worms, mainly because there has been gerrymandering going on for sometime well before Trump so what is happening now is an extension of that and of course it is one thing to rig an election, but another to do it successfully enough to win, so not simple.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
I suspect that the Durham affair has been a negative sum game which has hurt more or less everyone. I would put the losers in order of loss as:
Public health (destroyed credibility and clarity of messaging) Government's overall credibility (public trust down significantly) Boris Johnson (shown to be weak and over-dependent on Cummings) Journalists and the media (failed to dislodge Cummings) Tory MPs (have mailbags heaving with angry letters from voters) Dominic Cummings (SpAd shouldn't be the story).
Only real winners: Labour (notably Keir Starmer) for cool handling of crisis and as beneficiary of public rage at government, and for whom Cummings staying on is best outcome.
I would move Tory Mps into the neutral column. I was surprised and pleased how many were willing to take a stand.
Sadly given how vindictive Orville and Harris are it probably means the pool of potential ministers is now 60 lower, and we were desperately short on talent (well basic competence would do) already.
Tory MPs “took a stand” in the same way that Labour MPs “took a stand” over anti-semitism ie a bit of hand-wringing, a Tweet or email and absolutely no action at all. They go into the “pathetic” column.
I would also add the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, into the losers column. She has trashed what little reputation she had Shami-style by showing that she has no understanding of the A-G’s role.
I'm glad someone else noticed that. It's disturbing that the politicisation of the office appears to be becoming routine.
I very much appreciate your arguments on behalf to the socially undistanceable industries. It's a hard problem, on which my only useful thought for now is that mass population testing ought to be able, in about a month's time, to give us a far better idea of the extent of infection across the country, and what percentage of the population might be immune. Such information would make developing policies to open up much easier.
I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!
Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.
What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
They have been incredibly dilatory on several things; this is one of the more consequential ones. In the meantime 'working incredibly hard 24 hrs a day' etc...
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.
My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.
Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Did anyone expect something else to happen?
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.
My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.
Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.
Except that is not true is it, through the furlough scheme this Government has intervened more than any Tory government since Macmillan and provided far more support to businesses and workers than many other governments have
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Did anyone expect something else to happen?
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
What??? Have them come over here? And steal all our jobs???!???
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.
My guess is that China would retaliate by disallowing dual citizenship for Hong Kong residents, as is already the case for Chinese nationals. BNO passport holder would either have to renounce that status or lose their right to HK residency.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
We gave Hong Kong autonomy within China.
Xi is acting the equivalent way to Boris abolishing most powers of the Scottish Parliament
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?
It’s a view, I suppose.
Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after this
Gained weight? They'll die faster if there's a 2nd wave.
UK 26% obesity, 550 deaths per million
Japan 3% obesity, 7 deaths per million.
Govt, NHS and PHE together have shot themselves in the foot by turning more people into couch potatoes.
But it's good business for vaccine companies and the Gates Foundation to have fat, unhealthy people with weak immune systems. So I expect we'll carry on with a policy that doesn't at all seem to 'follow the science'.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Did anyone expect something else to happen?
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?
It’s a view, I suppose.
Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
Standing up for human rights by pointless virtue signalling.....those govts wont do anything to actually significantly help BNO passport holders or the people of Hong Kong, they are just playing to the gallery, whilst simultaneously damaging our relationship with China further.
If they were willing to help significantly, that would something I could support. Extending a visa from 6-12 months is not that. They could just do a Dover-Calais-Dover day trip to extend their visa currently if they wanted 12 months.
Ooh, ooh will they stop us buying Huawei? Oh dear.
There is only one way to stand up to bullies. Let’s see if our brave politicians, so keen to face down the bullying MSM, will have the balls for this one.
If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in China
Joking aside the risk I'm worried about is whether they would deport British citizens like my cousin - separating him from his HongKonger wife
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Did anyone expect something else to happen?
I always thought that China would lose patience with Hong Kong about 20 years after the handover. They wouldn't be able to honour the 50 year agreement.
I'm optimistic that more of us have immunity than is thought, but I do think the Government has gone too early on gatherings, another two or three weeks would be more sensible. Why take the risk?
I'm definitely worried we are doing this too soon. The signs are we have one of the highest death burdens, so we are badly hit AND we were late into lockdown.
If R is at 0.9 now, and was at 2.5 before lockdown... then being 1 week late on the lockdown means we need an extra 9 weeks to get back to the same place.
I think Marquee Mark's general point about the press losing their cool and being unable to see through the issue is pretty much bang on. They've absolutely lost it. Lost. It.
Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.
You are completely ignoring the political damage unless you are claiming thee hasn't been any.
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
You are attempting to dress it up as a Trumpton-style "Boris successfully takes on the media" story. I really don't think that is how it is being seen at all, in fact I've not talked to a single person who has expressed that sort of view or anything close to it and the polls certainly aren't picking it up either.
If you are correct you must surely expecting Boris to move back to the sort of favourability ratings he had a couple of weeks ago and 20% leads for the Tories. No?
I fear it’s going to be a very long summer in the USA. An awful lot of newly unemployed, culture war in full swing, politicisation of everything and an election in November.
The Labour Party in the Industrial North and South Wales have often been blighted by low level local corruption through their dominant electoral position.
I know of similar issues in solid Conservative areas. If you are a local "businessman" and want to "influence" things. you join whatever party has control.
Local government reform is one of those areas that isn't discussed enough.
How would you reform it? Proportional representation is one way to break the local party monopolies...
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?
We already did that in 1997.
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.
Did anyone expect something else to happen?
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
Just like the Ugandan Asians in the 70s
I've worked with a few (1st and 2nd generation), top guys/girls.
I'd honestly say giving the remaining BOP holders a path to citizenship would be the first thing in a long time to make me proud of this Country. Ok, the realpolitic is ugly, but things are only going one way there, and the idea that we could straddle the US-China divide seems to be wishful thinking. Giving a few hundred thousand ex-colonial subjects a escape route from authoritarianism seems like a no brainer. Yes, maybe the political capital could be saved for other things, but if we do want to demonstrate the values of a Internationalist, post-brexit UK (I know, I know), this would be the way.
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
I think Marquee Mark's general point about the press losing their cool and being unable to see through the issue is pretty much bang on. They've absolutely lost it. Lost. It.
Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.
So you expect Boris's personal ratings and the Tory polling lead to bounce back rapidly to where they were? Damage temporary?
What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
What was the general level of name recognition for Coulson vs Cummings at the height of the crisis? And wasn't it about stuff that happened before Cameron employed him? With tim and mickpork gone it's a struggle to remember any of the detail.
Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?
In the clip its very clear - the (black) reporter is polite and calm - says we were here before you arrived - where would you like us to move to? He asks several times - but the (white) cops arrest him - and his team, anyway. On live TV.
Anyway, I am off to Edinburgh today for a ceremony by which my devil will become a fully fledged member of the Scottish bar. Normally an event involving a good deal of dining and drinking it is going to be a rather sober, socially distanced affair but I am looking forward to it all the same.
Laters.
The Scottish dry bar...
Oxymoron of the day, unless 'dry' is preceded by 'drunk'.
Mind you I know some young hipsters in our neighbourhood are planning an alcohol free cocktail bar for when the some sort of normality returns. The East End of Glasgow is changing.
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?
Maybe, but he doesn't have to vote Labour, only split the Tory vote. And your attitude "we can do what we like, they'll never vote Labour" is a little dangerous from your perspective.
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
The thing is that the Dom C theory that most scandals don't cut through, so stuff 'em is true, on average, most of the time.
Until the one that does cut through happens. And cut-through is pretty unpredictable.
To take an analogy I think I picked up here, blanking out all "scandals" is like picking up pennies from the path of a steamroller. Most days, you end up ahead. Until the day you don't.
Incidentally, isn't "misunderstanding low-probability high-hazard events" one of the things Dom accuses the British Governing Class of not getting?
Comments
I won't waste any more time.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/osaka-reopen-bars-gyms/
...The prefecture also drew up its own guidelines to prevent infections, which, among other things, call for concert attendees to be seated during the events in principle.
To reopen, the facilities will be required to make a list of customers and introduce a system developed by the prefectural government for the tracking of infected people using QR codes.
The prefectural government will consider making business suspension requests again if a cluster of infections is found...
Although it’s definitely worse with Twitter, whose ‘fact check’ of Trump’s Tweet was an opinion piece on CNN, that unsurprisingly disagreed with the President.
Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.
What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/coronavirus-tokyo-phase-two-osaka-reopen/
...The brisk pace and disjointed manner in which these orders are being lifted in different parts of the country, however, are drawing criticism and concern.
Under Tokyo’s plan, social distancing and business closure requests will be peeled back in three phases to reopen society and reboot the capital’s economy while taking precautionary measures to prevent a second wave of infections.
Tokyo, one of the last prefectures to be cleared, will enter phase two on Monday, Koike said at a meeting Friday of the metropolitan government’s coronavirus task force.
“As we move closer to reopening the city, now is when the risk of a second wave is at its highest,” Koike said Friday. “We need to prioritize both the local economy and the well-being of residents.”...
Re the WHO and 'these countries' I'm guessing because this is new, there is a plan, it is in the media, etc, rather than something you have been living with, but shouldn't have to. Not acceptable I know, but dependent upon 1st world and WHO to help and don't or do little because they are juggling so many balls and it is not in the headlines every day. Same as wars and starvation and diseases, etc happening all over the world that we ignore.
It is depressing, but the most important thing you can do for your health and well being is be born in the right place.
"More than 100 MPs have demanded that a lifeline self-employment support scheme is extended amid fears millions of workers face ruin if it ends on Monday.
Politicians from all major parties – including four Conservatives – called on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the programme until lockdown measures are relaxed further.
The scheme is paying 2.3 million self-employed workers up to £2,500 a month. If this support is cut, huge numbers could find they are unable to keep up with bills because they have effectively been banned from doing business by state decree."
Shit gets real for this government much sooner than anyone thinks it does. I think we are all suffering from normalcy bias like eadric said we were, we have just switched to the new normal to be biased to.
This is why squandering the amount of goodwill the government has squandered on Cummings is suboptimal.
So don’t make unfounded accusations against me please.
Give immediate citizenship to all 3m original BNO holders (well those still alive of course) - well that would make a real difference, so could be a consideration, even if the cost is bigger. But the UK electorate would never accept that.
https://twitter.com/AndersFoghR/status/1266306131577565185?s=20
So I deleted what I was about to post.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/
In the meantime 'working incredibly hard 24 hrs a day' etc...
My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.
Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
Xi is acting the equivalent way to Boris abolishing most powers of the Scottish Parliament
It’s a view, I suppose.
Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/05/28/first-pictures-of-giant-hs2-tunnel-machines/
UK
26% obesity, 550 deaths per million
Japan
3% obesity, 7 deaths per million.
Govt, NHS and PHE together have shot themselves in the foot by turning more people into couch potatoes.
But it's good business for vaccine companies and the Gates Foundation to have fat, unhealthy people with weak immune systems. So I expect we'll carry on with a policy that doesn't at all seem to 'follow the science'.
Where's JosiasJessop these days, by the way? I do hope JJ is well.
If they were willing to help significantly, that would something I could support. Extending a visa from 6-12 months is not that. They could just do a Dover-Calais-Dover day trip to extend their visa currently if they wanted 12 months.
What in the world do we expect? Both arguably wrong and both tribalist.
They do it because they can.
If R is at 0.9 now, and was at 2.5 before lockdown... then being 1 week late on the lockdown means we need an extra 9 weeks to get back to the same place.
The one thing I do remember was Cameron being ticked off by the judge for giving a statement before all the charges had been decided upon by the jury.
TBH think that's a bit better than "Stay Alert"
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
You are attempting to dress it up as a Trumpton-style "Boris successfully takes on the media" story. I really don't think that is how it is being seen at all, in fact I've not talked to a single person who has expressed that sort of view or anything close to it and the polls certainly aren't picking it up either.
If you are correct you must surely expecting Boris to move back to the sort of favourability ratings he had a couple of weeks ago and 20% leads for the Tories. No?
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1265900848305094656?s=20
Which is why it never happens.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
What data is that based on?
I'd honestly say giving the remaining BOP holders a path to citizenship would be the first thing in a long time to make me proud of this Country. Ok, the realpolitic is ugly, but things are only going one way there, and the idea that we could straddle the US-China divide seems to be wishful thinking. Giving a few hundred thousand ex-colonial subjects a escape route from authoritarianism seems like a no brainer. Yes, maybe the political capital could be saved for other things, but if we do want to demonstrate the values of a Internationalist, post-brexit UK (I know, I know), this would be the way.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1266285490703003648?s=19
https://edition.cnn.com/profiles/omar-jimenez
In the clip its very clear - the (black) reporter is polite and calm - says we were here before you arrived - where would you like us to move to? He asks several times - but the (white) cops arrest him - and his team, anyway. On live TV.
Mind you I know some young hipsters in our neighbourhood are planning an alcohol free cocktail bar for when the some sort of normality returns. The East End of Glasgow is changing.
Until the one that does cut through happens. And cut-through is pretty unpredictable.
To take an analogy I think I picked up here, blanking out all "scandals" is like picking up pennies from the path of a steamroller. Most days, you end up ahead. Until the day you don't.
Incidentally, isn't "misunderstanding low-probability high-hazard events" one of the things Dom accuses the British Governing Class of not getting?