politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris looks as though he’s survived the Cummings lockdown road
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Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.3 -
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.1 -
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How many new cases per day has France now ?HYUFD said:0 -
Around 80,000 died in the UK from flu in 1968/69. If you take population into account, that would be equivalent to about 100,000 today.Chris said:
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.Chris said:
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.Cyclefree said:
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.kjh said:
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.Cyclefree said:
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.0 -
Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.Cyclefree said:
I’m not.Chris said:
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.Chris said:
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.Cyclefree said:
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.kjh said:
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.Cyclefree said:
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
I won't waste any more time.0 -
And rightly so.Cyclefree said:
I’m not. Lockdowns have been imposed worldwide. The WHO considers TB to be a pandemic but I am struck by the different reaction by them and the countries where it happens. I suspect it is because we have lived with TB for a long time and this virus is new. It is inconsistent but there it is.Chris said:
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.Chris said:
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.Cyclefree said:
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.kjh said:
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.Cyclefree said:
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
Anyway I’ve given my answer. The lockdown has been necessary in order to prevent what seemed to be likely - a very large number of deaths, possibly into the hundreds of thousands. It is what happens next I am raising.0 -
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".0 -
Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.Scott_xP said:0 -
Osaka will let clubs, bars and gyms reopen on Monday
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/osaka-reopen-bars-gyms/
...The prefecture also drew up its own guidelines to prevent infections, which, among other things, call for concert attendees to be seated during the events in principle.
To reopen, the facilities will be required to make a list of customers and introduce a system developed by the prefectural government for the tracking of infected people using QR codes.
The prefectural government will consider making business suspension requests again if a cluster of infections is found...0 -
It’s come across very badly with people on Youtube. Mostly because the WHO version of events to which they point, is seen by Americans as excessively Sinophillic.Nigelb said:
I wouldn't for a moment be an apologist for Youtube. I just thought the particular idea a potentially useful one.Sandpit said:
YouTube have been deleting a lot of videos that question the WHO view of events, or that opine on whether a total lockdown is worth the economic cost of it.Nigelb said:
Here's one alternative idea:Sandpit said:
Presumably they’re trying to get Trump off their platform, by continually challenging everything he says.Alistair said:
It is bizarre what twitter is doing. They refuse to ban Nazi's (except in Germany) but now they are doing this with Trump's tweet.ydoethur said:
Twitter must be supporting the Dems.Scott_xP said:So, this is going to be a thing...
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1266273532993916930
Otherwise, surely they would have banned him by now for his own sake.
I Don't Get it.
The risk is that they upset politicians enough that a bipartisanan bill removing their S230 protections gets through, turning them into a publisher that can be sued for libel for anything false and defamatory posted on their site.
https://twitter.com/Yair_Rosenberg/status/1266116477104599043
Another might be to declare themselves a publisher in respect of posters who have more than a certain number of followers (more than a million, for example) ?
They also pulled Michael Moore’s documentary on “big green” based on a spurious copyright takedown.
They’re also making extensive use of ‘demonetising’ videos they don’t like (refusing to run ads alongside them), which is a dealbreaker for independent commentators who don’t get paid as a result, and ‘shadowbanning’ (delsiting a video from search and recommend algorithms) meaning videos get a fraction of their usual audience.
They’re being a lot more evil than Twitter or Facebook - what was Google’s original company motto?
Although it’s definitely worse with Twitter, whose ‘fact check’ of Trump’s Tweet was an opinion piece on CNN, that unsurprisingly disagreed with the President.0 -
I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!Nigelb said:
I'm glad someone else noticed that. It's disturbing that the politicisation of the office appears to be becoming routine.Cyclefree said:
Tory MPs “took a stand” in the same way that Labour MPs “took a stand” over anti-semitism ie a bit of hand-wringing, a Tweet or email and absolutely no action at all. They go into the “pathetic” column.noneoftheabove said:
I would move Tory Mps into the neutral column. I was surprised and pleased how many were willing to take a stand.OnlyLivingBoy said:I suspect that the Durham affair has been a negative sum game which has hurt more or less everyone. I would put the losers in order of loss as:
Public health (destroyed credibility and clarity of messaging)
Government's overall credibility (public trust down significantly)
Boris Johnson (shown to be weak and over-dependent on Cummings)
Journalists and the media (failed to dislodge Cummings)
Tory MPs (have mailbags heaving with angry letters from voters)
Dominic Cummings (SpAd shouldn't be the story).
Only real winners:
Labour (notably Keir Starmer) for cool handling of crisis and as beneficiary of public rage at government, and for whom Cummings staying on is best outcome.
Sadly given how vindictive Orville and Harris are it probably means the pool of potential ministers is now 60 lower, and we were desperately short on talent (well basic competence would do) already.
I would also add the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, into the losers column. She has trashed what little reputation she had Shami-style by showing that she has no understanding of the A-G’s role.
I very much appreciate your arguments on behalf to the socially undistanceable industries.
It's a hard problem, on which my only useful thought for now is that mass population testing ought to be able, in about a month's time, to give us a far better idea of the extent of infection across the country, and what percentage of the population might be immune.
Such information would make developing policies to open up much easier.
Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.
What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!2 -
Argh
Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?kjh said:
I know that is why it is scary. Does he know or think that? I never thought I would see a group of heavily armed men 'storm' a State Parliament, but they have. The thought that always go through my mind is that if they were black that wouldn't have been tolerated and there would probably have been a shoot out.HYUFD said:
Yes but short of a civil war he cannot overrule the US Supreme Court or the US Congresskjh said:
You are right but we are talking Trump here!HYUFD said:
Impossible under the US constitutionnoneoftheabove said:
So he will get himself banned from twitter then refuse to leave when he loses the election as his right to free speech wasnt heard. If the remaining adults in the Republican party dont take back control at that time, it might be the last US presidential election in decades (or at least the last with more than one candidate allowed).CarlottaVance said:
We can see excuses developing for the election being declared rigged.0 -
Tokyo nears phase two of virus recovery plan as Osaka to fully reopen
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/29/national/coronavirus-tokyo-phase-two-osaka-reopen/
...The brisk pace and disjointed manner in which these orders are being lifted in different parts of the country, however, are drawing criticism and concern.
Under Tokyo’s plan, social distancing and business closure requests will be peeled back in three phases to reopen society and reboot the capital’s economy while taking precautionary measures to prevent a second wave of infections.
Tokyo, one of the last prefectures to be cleared, will enter phase two on Monday, Koike said at a meeting Friday of the metropolitan government’s coronavirus task force.
“As we move closer to reopening the city, now is when the risk of a second wave is at its highest,” Koike said Friday. “We need to prioritize both the local economy and the well-being of residents.”...0 -
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.0 -
Thank you - the fact that your link is from 2000 illustrates the paucity of data, maybe. But the main figure I was questioning was 250,000 ending up in hospital having fallen down stairs. This seems to be the figure for all falls, not stairs.IshmaelZ said:
From 2000Northern_Al said:
I keep reading this data on falling down stairs, and I cannot source it - I've done some research. The quarter of a million figure is for all falls requiring hospital admission, not stairs - many of these will be outside the home, caused by ice, dodgy pavements, fragility etc. I really can't find anything on specifically falling down stairs that looks reliable. The nearest I got was c. 1,000 very elderly people a year die from falls.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
If somebody has a reliable source, I'm quite happy to withdraw my suspicion that this is nonsense.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/790609.stm
"More than 1,000 people die every year after falling down stairs, new figures reveal.
Stairs are the place where most deaths and serious injuries happen in the home."
Edit: in context that looks at first sight as if it's about the elderly, but it's everybody.0 -
We had no capability to do so in 68 and 57 same for TB when it was a problem until we did. It was just one of those things.Cyclefree said:
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.kjh said:
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.Cyclefree said:
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
Re the WHO and 'these countries' I'm guessing because this is new, there is a plan, it is in the media, etc, rather than something you have been living with, but shouldn't have to. Not acceptable I know, but dependent upon 1st world and WHO to help and don't or do little because they are juggling so many balls and it is not in the headlines every day. Same as wars and starvation and diseases, etc happening all over the world that we ignore.
It is depressing, but the most important thing you can do for your health and well being is be born in the right place.0 -
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If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in ChinaCyclefree said:
Ooh, ooh will they stop us buying Huawei? Oh dear.williamglenn said:
There is only one way to stand up to bullies. Let’s see if our brave politicians, so keen to face down the bullying MSM, will have the balls for this one.0 -
Guernsey is introducing 1m social distancing "within controlled environments" - eg sit-down restaurants where it will be easy to track who was sitting at what table. That presumably will make life a little easier.contrarian said:
Mr Dancer I'm afraid to say there is no 'balance'. I wish there were, but I don't think there is.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, indeed. Difficult balance to strike, though.
The choice is stark.
But I think that's all there is.0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/29/100-mps-demand-extension-self-employed-lifeline/
"More than 100 MPs have demanded that a lifeline self-employment support scheme is extended amid fears millions of workers face ruin if it ends on Monday.
Politicians from all major parties – including four Conservatives – called on Chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the programme until lockdown measures are relaxed further.
The scheme is paying 2.3 million self-employed workers up to £2,500 a month. If this support is cut, huge numbers could find they are unable to keep up with bills because they have effectively been banned from doing business by state decree."
Shit gets real for this government much sooner than anyone thinks it does. I think we are all suffering from normalcy bias like eadric said we were, we have just switched to the new normal to be biased to.
This is why squandering the amount of goodwill the government has squandered on Cummings is suboptimal.0 -
The 1.5 million figure is not spurious at all. It comes from WHO information and I made it absolutely clear that it - and the figure for infections - was a worldwide figure in my posts and in my thread header, here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/24/social-distancing-how-far-how-long-for/.Chris said:
Sorry, but the TB figure you posted was completely spurious, and apparently you know it.Cyclefree said:
I’m not.Chris said:
In the UK? I am asking whether you doubt it would be half a million in the UK.Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.Chris said:
You are thinking about tens of thousands of people.Cyclefree said:
I know that. But even the countries where it is a problem have not reacted in this way. Nor has the WHO. And nor did we when it was a problem in this country.kjh said:
TB is not a First World problem! It is sad, but that is the reason.Cyclefree said:
A better comparison might be the one I made in my most recent thread header, namely, TB. This is contagious and is spread in very similar ways to Covid-19. Death from it is similar too. And if you survive it, it often leaves long-term health problems.Anabobazina said:Erisdoorf FPT
I know it was late at night but your response was unnecessarily assertive!
My use of Alastair’s now infamous stairs stat wasn’t to in some way to criticise the lockdown, it is merely good shorthand for people’s warped perception of risk.
People are getting wiser to the actual risks they face. If you are under 60 and healthy, you are (apparently, according to PB, I haven’t verified this) at more risk of falling down the stairs than from Covid-19.
I dare say few people know this. And I wasn’t only talking about risk of death, I was talking about general risk of both death and injury.
Apparently a quarter of a million Britons a year end up in hospital having fallen down the stairs. Of course, only a fraction of those A&E reports die, but many are injured (some seriously) from their accident.
So, Alastair’s stat is useful, as it provides an everyday comparator. @AndyJS has been trying to convey this risk profile daily, and is often ignored or even attacked for it.
Yet the risk profile is very relevant. That is not to underplay the risks from Covid, merely to quantify and compare them.
The death rate world-wide is 15%. In 2018 1.5 million people died from it. Even though there are antibiotics that can cure it.
And, yet, despite this appalling death rate, the world has not reacted in the same way by shutting down everything in sight.
So it is legitimate to ask whether we are not overreacting - particularly in our apparent intention to keep things shut or make it impossible for them to reopen.
Nor did we in 1968 and 1957 when we had flu epidemics which killed tens of thousands of people.
So I do think that we should be asking ourselves whether we are overreacting.
The question is whether you doubt, that if this virus worked its way through the whole population unhindered, we would be talking about half a million deaths. And whether you think in that context we are overreacting.
Please don't try to be too clever about this.
I won't waste any more time.
So don’t make unfounded accusations against me please.0 -
He's been going post op for almost a year, but it keeps getting delayed. Don't forget this when he eventually has it and doesStark_Dawning said:
Hmm. When all this kicked off, did Dom and Boris agree a parting of the ways after all? But Boris, being a former journalist himself, couldn't stomach the appearance of succumbing to a media firestorm, so decided to stick it out for a bit out of sheer vanity. He'd then regain some lost political capital when Dom finally clears off. It makes a kind of sense. It also explains why his supporters are obsessed with this imaginary 'Boris versus the Media' tough-guy contest. But there were certainly better ways to play it.Scott_xP said:
0 -
Refusing 3m British passport holders of the the right to live here for over 30 years, and then offering to extend their visas from 6-12 months when over 90% have given them up isnt some great heroic human rights act by the UK. As those on the right are so fond of describing things, it is virtue signalling, for no-ones benefit at the cost of our relationship with China.Cyclefree said:
Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
Give immediate citizenship to all 3m original BNO holders (well those still alive of course) - well that would make a real difference, so could be a consideration, even if the cost is bigger. But the UK electorate would never accept that.0 -
Indonesia? World's third most populous democracy and largest Muslim nation.
https://twitter.com/AndersFoghR/status/1266306131577565185?s=200 -
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.1 -
Funny you should say that because originally I had something on those lines in my reply, but deleted it because it opened a can of worms, mainly because there has been gerrymandering going on for sometime well before Trump so what is happening now is an extension of that and of course it is one thing to rig an election, but another to do it successfully enough to win, so not simple.LostPassword said:Argh
Why declare the election as rigged when you can simply rig the election?kjh said:
I know that is why it is scary. Does he know or think that? I never thought I would see a group of heavily armed men 'storm' a State Parliament, but they have. The thought that always go through my mind is that if they were black that wouldn't have been tolerated and there would probably have been a shoot out.HYUFD said:
Yes but short of a civil war he cannot overrule the US Supreme Court or the US Congresskjh said:
You are right but we are talking Trump here!HYUFD said:
Impossible under the US constitutionnoneoftheabove said:
So he will get himself banned from twitter then refuse to leave when he loses the election as his right to free speech wasnt heard. If the remaining adults in the Republican party dont take back control at that time, it might be the last US presidential election in decades (or at least the last with more than one candidate allowed).CarlottaVance said:
We can see excuses developing for the election being declared rigged.
So I deleted what I was about to post.0 -
"Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/0 -
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?noneoftheabove said:
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.2 -
They have been incredibly dilatory on several things; this is one of the more consequential ones.Cyclefree said:
I have high hopes for Suella. I think she will be the Shami de nos jours and I think I am going to enjoy watching and commenting on her travails!Nigelb said:
I'm glad someone else noticed that. It's disturbing that the politicisation of the office appears to be becoming routine.Cyclefree said:
Tory MPs “took a stand” in the same way that Labour MPs “took a stand” over anti-semitism ie a bit of hand-wringing, a Tweet or email and absolutely no action at all. They go into the “pathetic” column.noneoftheabove said:
I would move Tory Mps into the neutral column. I was surprised and pleased how many were willing to take a stand.OnlyLivingBoy said:I suspect that the Durham affair has been a negative sum game which has hurt more or less everyone. I would put the losers in order of loss as:
Public health (destroyed credibility and clarity of messaging)
Government's overall credibility (public trust down significantly)
Boris Johnson (shown to be weak and over-dependent on Cummings)
Journalists and the media (failed to dislodge Cummings)
Tory MPs (have mailbags heaving with angry letters from voters)
Dominic Cummings (SpAd shouldn't be the story).
Only real winners:
Labour (notably Keir Starmer) for cool handling of crisis and as beneficiary of public rage at government, and for whom Cummings staying on is best outcome.
Sadly given how vindictive Orville and Harris are it probably means the pool of potential ministers is now 60 lower, and we were desperately short on talent (well basic competence would do) already.
I would also add the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, into the losers column. She has trashed what little reputation she had Shami-style by showing that she has no understanding of the A-G’s role.
I very much appreciate your arguments on behalf to the socially undistanceable industries.
It's a hard problem, on which my only useful thought for now is that mass population testing ought to be able, in about a month's time, to give us a far better idea of the extent of infection across the country, and what percentage of the population might be immune.
Such information would make developing policies to open up much easier.
Re mass testing: the government should have been working like dogs these past few months to get this up and running and working for just this moment, precisely in order to have a plan for the socially undistanceable sectors - which are a very significant part of our economy btw.
What the eff have all these Cummings-geniuses been doing all this time?!
In the meantime 'working incredibly hard 24 hrs a day' etc...0 -
'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after thisAndy_JS said:"Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/
0 -
And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.NickPalmer said:
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.
Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.0 -
Dillie Keane's "Song for Dominic Cummings":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk0 -
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.1 -
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.0 -
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.Sandpit said:
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?noneoftheabove said:
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.1 -
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.Beibheirli_C said:
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.2 -
Quite brilliant and, I suspect, reflecting thoughts and fears of some people.Chris said:Dillie Keane's "Song for Dominic Cummings":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk0 -
Except that is not true is it, through the furlough scheme this Government has intervened more than any Tory government since Macmillan and provided far more support to businesses and workers than many other governments haveCyclefree said:
And if that is the case, then the government has to make a decision about whether - as suggested by you in a posting - you support those affected sectors for a long while. Or let them go to the wall. Or provide some form of compensation for those which cannot operate so that they can do something else instead.NickPalmer said:
Yes, it really is - thanks Cyclefree. There's a fascinating new poll out on how public thinking is shifting (apols if already linked):Cyclefree said:
1.5 million people died of TB in 2018.
I think locking down to suppress the virus is probably the right thing to do in the short-term. Shutting down for the long-term is a different question - and there I think the question of overreaction, risk, the costs of doing so, the purpose of life etc should be taken into account. That is what my last thread header was about. It was roundly ignored because of Cummings but it is, even if I am the one saying so, a necessary debate.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-public-still-staying-home-huge-degree-and-even-getting-used-lockdown-life-new-data-reveals
Broadly speaking, people are starting to envisage life very differently, including children home-schooled for "the very long term", sports events without spectators, bars with permanent restrictions, etc. One can argue whether they're right to shift like this (it does look as though they overestimate the risk of hospitalisation if they catch the virus), but it's pretty significant.
We all project what we think most people feel according to our own feelings and those of people close to us, but the basic message here seems to be "We're still very scared and we'll put up with whatever restrictions it takes to keep us safe".
My view FWIW is a combination of the 1st and 3rd plus the other measures outlined yesterday.
Letting whole sectors go to the wall is not something I support because the economic, social, personal and health costs of this are enormous and long-term. But I fear it will be the way this government will choose, through a lack of understanding as much as anything else.0 -
What??? Have them come over here? And steal all our jobs???!???eek said:
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.Beibheirli_C said:
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.0 -
My guess is that China would retaliate by disallowing dual citizenship for Hong Kong residents, as is already the case for Chinese nationals. BNO passport holder would either have to renounce that status or lose their right to HK residency.Cyclefree said:
Deciding who can be a British citizen is not attacking China. If anything, it is an attack by China on British sovereignty - the right of a country to decide who can be a citizen and live within its borders.noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.1 -
We gave Hong Kong autonomy within China.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
Xi is acting the equivalent way to Boris abolishing most powers of the Scottish Parliament0 -
And 10% of us have become "informers". Nice.....BluestBlue said:
'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after thisAndy_JS said:"Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/0 -
So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?noneoftheabove said:
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.Sandpit said:
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?noneoftheabove said:
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
It’s a view, I suppose.
Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.1 -
-
Gained weight? They'll die faster if there's a 2nd wave.BluestBlue said:
'Fatter, Drunker, Angrier' - our football hooligans are going to be more fearsome than ever after thisAndy_JS said:"Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/
UK
26% obesity, 550 deaths per million
Japan
3% obesity, 7 deaths per million.
Govt, NHS and PHE together have shot themselves in the foot by turning more people into couch potatoes.
But it's good business for vaccine companies and the Gates Foundation to have fat, unhealthy people with weak immune systems. So I expect we'll carry on with a policy that doesn't at all seem to 'follow the science'.0 -
-
Just like the Ugandan Asians in the 70seek said:
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.Beibheirli_C said:
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.2 -
Ooh, impressive, and not too far from MArc Brunel's Thames Tunnel where it all began.CarlottaVance said:
Where's JosiasJessop these days, by the way? I do hope JJ is well.3 -
-
Standing up for human rights by pointless virtue signalling.....those govts wont do anything to actually significantly help BNO passport holders or the people of Hong Kong, they are just playing to the gallery, whilst simultaneously damaging our relationship with China further.Sandpit said:
So we shouldn’t stand up to China because Brexit, and if we are going to do anything it needs to involve mass immigration?noneoftheabove said:
If I were in charge, I wouldnt have burned our bridges with the EU, and looked to strengthen and reform global institutions, so we would have more leverage in international relations.Sandpit said:
So you think we should just abandon them now to the Chinese communists?noneoftheabove said:
Lets not pretend the UK regards them as British. 90% of the original BNO passport holders gave them up partly because the UK didnt give them the right to even live here. Hypocrisy to pretend to represent them now.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
We are a pawn now, matters such as this are almost completely out of our control, whether you or the UK govt accept it, or not.
I would prefer giving all 3m of those who have ever had it full immediate UK citizenship even at the greater cost with China, than giving 150k or whatever the latest number a visa extension from 6 months to 12 months. That helps no-one, it is just virtue signalling at the expense of our relationship with one of the three powers in the world.
We have spent the last decade damaging our relationship with Europe, and the US is unstable and unreliable. Our relationship with China should only be damaged for something clear, worthwhile and achievable, nor random bits of points scoring.
It’s a view, I suppose.
Thankfully the governments of the U.K., USA, Australia and Canada all disagree, and are standing up for the rights of the citizens of Hong Kong, that were agreed with China more than two decades ago.
If they were willing to help significantly, that would something I could support. Extending a visa from 6-12 months is not that. They could just do a Dover-Calais-Dover day trip to extend their visa currently if they wanted 12 months.0 -
Joking aside the risk I'm worried about is whether they would deport British citizens like my cousin - separating him from his HongKonger wifeedmundintokyo said:
If the Chinese really want to teach these meddling colonials a lesson they'll give everyone with a British passport an automatic right to live visa-free in ChinaCyclefree said:
Ooh, ooh will they stop us buying Huawei? Oh dear.williamglenn said:
There is only one way to stand up to bullies. Let’s see if our brave politicians, so keen to face down the bullying MSM, will have the balls for this one.0 -
I always thought that China would lose patience with Hong Kong about 20 years after the handover. They wouldn't be able to honour the 50 year agreement.Beibheirli_C said:
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.0 -
All BAU in the zero-accountability nation. The UK stinks.Fishing said:
I'm not sure it's inevitable. The government has little to gain by holding one.not_on_fire said:
Care homes will come up as an issue in the inevitable public enquiry
And even if it is, they might be able to fudge the terms of reference by making it about lockdown instead.
Or pick a friendly chairman, like Blair did for the inquiry into the death of David Kelly.0 -
What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?0
-
I'm optimistic that more of us have immunity than is thought, but I do think the Government has gone too early on gatherings, another two or three weeks would be more sensible. Why take the risk?Scott_xP said:0 -
He won a majority at the next electionDeafbloke said:What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
2 -
Concerning Hong Kong and cummings:
What in the world do we expect? Both arguably wrong and both tribalist.
They do it because they can.1 -
Crazy. Things could get very ugly in the US.Scott_xP said:0 -
I'm definitely worried we are doing this too soon. The signs are we have one of the highest death burdens, so we are badly hit AND we were late into lockdown.Scott_xP said:
If R is at 0.9 now, and was at 2.5 before lockdown... then being 1 week late on the lockdown means we need an extra 9 weeks to get back to the same place.
0 -
I was too busy having a life at the time of that scandal. Was it ever alleged that Cameron knew what had been going on when he appointed Coulson?Deafbloke said:What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
The one thing I do remember was Cameron being ticked off by the judge for giving a statement before all the charges had been decided upon by the jury.0 -
-
https://twitter.com/BBCJayneMcC/status/1266317029109305344?s=20
TBH think that's a bit better than "Stay Alert"2 -
Cameron 'won' the 2015 because he (and the SNP) took seats from the LibDems. He actually lost seats to Labour.BluestBlue said:
He won a majority at the next electionDeafbloke said:What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
0 -
If only they built the Bakerloo, Central, Jubilee, Piccadilly, Victoria, and Waterloo & City lines to that diameterCarlottaVance said:
1 -
You are completely ignoring the political damage unless you are claiming thee hasn't been any.BluestBlue said:
Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.BannedinnParis said:I think Marquee Mark's general point about the press losing their cool and being unable to see through the issue is pretty much bang on. They've absolutely lost it. Lost. It.
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
You are attempting to dress it up as a Trumpton-style "Boris successfully takes on the media" story. I really don't think that is how it is being seen at all, in fact I've not talked to a single person who has expressed that sort of view or anything close to it and the polls certainly aren't picking it up either.
If you are correct you must surely expecting Boris to move back to the sort of favourability ratings he had a couple of weeks ago and 20% leads for the Tories. No?0 -
Cameron ignored Coulson's warning not to hire *checks notes* Dominic Cummings. The rest is history, at least for David Cameron.BluestBlue said:
He won a majority at the next electionDeafbloke said:What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
0 -
I fear it’s going to be a very long summer in the USA. An awful lot of newly unemployed, culture war in full swing, politicisation of everything and an election in November.williamglenn said:
Crazy. Things could get very ugly in the US.Scott_xP said:0 -
What action should the UK take to protect their human rights?williamglenn said:
Crazy. Things could get very ugly in the US.Scott_xP said:0 -
I've maintained a steady 11 stone througout lockdownAndy_JS said:"Lockdown causes mounting tensions as survey shows Britons have turned on neighbours, drunk more and gained weight"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/lockdown-causes-mounting-tensions-survey-shows-britons-have/
1 -
3
-
Both statements are very probably true, you could have 1000 in a crowd, 999 peaceful, 1 an arsonist.Andy_JS said:1 -
No shit Sherlock.Gallowgate said:
How would you reform it? Proportional representation is one way to break the local party monopolies...Socky said:
I know of similar issues in solid Conservative areas. If you are a local "businessman" and want to "influence" things. you join whatever party has control.Mexicanpete said:The Labour Party in the Industrial North and South Wales have often been blighted by low level local corruption through their dominant electoral position.
Local government reform is one of those areas that isn't discussed enough.
Which is why it never happens.0 -
Unkind of you to mock such an insightful observation.CarlottaVance said:I'm astonished - really?
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1265900848305094656?s=200 -
Is that a tweet from the 1950s? The idea of a horseshoe-shaped graph of authoritarianism versus left/right-ness has been around for decades.CarlottaVance said:I'm astonished - really?
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1265900848305094656?s=202 -
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.OllyT said:
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.3 -
Hospital admissions up?Scott_xP said:
What data is that based on?0 -
I've worked with a few (1st and 2nd generation), top guys/girls.HYUFD said:
Just like the Ugandan Asians in the 70seek said:
Nope but given that China has just torn it up now is the perfect time for us to say that two can play the same game.Beibheirli_C said:
Did anyone expect something else to happen?Cyclefree said:
There was a One Country, Two Systems agreement in place then. Which China has just torn up.Dura_Ace said:
We already did that in 1997.Sandpit said:
So we should just leave the British nationals overseas to their fate at the hands of the Communists?noneoftheabove said:
YES! The idea the divided Western world can attack China in their backyard and expect China not to respond is bonkers.Sandpit said:
What the...?williamglenn said:
Are the CCP really trying to provoke the Western world into WWIII, at a time when their reputation is somewhat sullied by recent events and they have few friends around?
If we want to escalate problems in our relationship with China, we need to have a realistic plan of where we want to end up and strong allies we can rely on. We have neither, so should stay out of it.
And the Hong Kongese are probably the perfect people to invite into a Brexit UK and get the economy starting again.
I'd honestly say giving the remaining BOP holders a path to citizenship would be the first thing in a long time to make me proud of this Country. Ok, the realpolitic is ugly, but things are only going one way there, and the idea that we could straddle the US-China divide seems to be wishful thinking. Giving a few hundred thousand ex-colonial subjects a escape route from authoritarianism seems like a no brainer. Yes, maybe the political capital could be saved for other things, but if we do want to demonstrate the values of a Internationalist, post-brexit UK (I know, I know), this would be the way.0 -
Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Laughable hypocrisy, what happened to standing up for human rights?Sandpit said:
Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops, or media provoking the crowd?CarlottaVance said:0 -
So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?Dura_Ace said:
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.OllyT said:
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.0 -
Talking horseshit...deaths are as we know well down from peak, as are hospital admissions...NerysHughes said:
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1266285490703003648?s=191 -
There is a single data point in London.NerysHughes said:0 -
You get one guess what colour the reporter is:Sandpit said:
Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?CarlottaVance said:
https://edition.cnn.com/profiles/omar-jimenez
0 -
The snobbery is strong with this post.Dura_Ace said:
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.OllyT said:
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.0 -
Reported deaths up is also true - up vs weekend and also up vs last week, but the word reported is important.0
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So you expect Boris's personal ratings and the Tory polling lead to bounce back rapidly to where they were? Damage temporary?BluestBlue said:
Yep, it's a big moment. The entire Opposition Blob fired everything they had at Cummings, including several kitchen sinks and the BBC's comical 'impartiality', and they could. not. move. him. The Government's ability to ignore any future trumped-up scandals is vastly increased, as is its ability to tell the media to get stuffed if they don't like it.BannedinnParis said:I think Marquee Mark's general point about the press losing their cool and being unable to see through the issue is pretty much bang on. They've absolutely lost it. Lost. It.
0 -
What was the general level of name recognition for Coulson vs Cummings at the height of the crisis? And wasn't it about stuff that happened before Cameron employed him? With tim and mickpork gone it's a struggle to remember any of the detail.Deafbloke said:What price did Cameron pay for the (far more serious) Coulson scandal?
0 -
Sandpit said:
Sounds worrying. Over-zealous cops not wanting to be filmed, or media provoking the crowd?CarlottaVance said:
In the clip its very clear - the (black) reporter is polite and calm - says we were here before you arrived - where would you like us to move to? He asks several times - but the (white) cops arrest him - and his team, anyway. On live TV.3 -
Oxymoron of the day, unless 'dry' is preceded by 'drunk'.Nigelb said:DavidL said:Anyway, I am off to Edinburgh today for a ceremony by which my devil will become a fully fledged member of the Scottish bar. Normally an event involving a good deal of dining and drinking it is going to be a rather sober, socially distanced affair but I am looking forward to it all the same.
Laters.
The Scottish dry bar...
Mind you I know some young hipsters in our neighbourhood are planning an alcohol free cocktail bar for when the some sort of normality returns. The East End of Glasgow is changing.0 -
That cannot be from the 50s as the author can hardly be into his teens yet.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Is that a tweet from the 1950s? The idea of a horseshoe-shaped graph of authoritarianism versus left/right-ness has been around for decades.CarlottaVance said:I'm astonished - really?
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1265900848305094656?s=200 -
Maybe, but he doesn't have to vote Labour, only split the Tory vote. And your attitude "we can do what we like, they'll never vote Labour" is a little dangerous from your perspective.BluestBlue said:
So now he'll be voting for the arch-Remainer, PC human rights lawyer socialist at the next election, right?Dura_Ace said:
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.OllyT said:
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.0 -
The thing is that the Dom C theory that most scandals don't cut through, so stuff 'em is true, on average, most of the time.Dura_Ace said:
I am friends with a guy called Peter on Facebook who is just your standard thick as pig shit leaver. I am not sure how he ended up there, maybe he's a friend of a relative. Anyway, he is a reliable poster of all manner of Brexit and poppy related crap. He loves nurses, lorry drivers, key workers and funny looking kids that are missing limbs. He hates the EU, Corbyn and anything that can be construed as political correctness. Traditionally there has been no emoji that adequately expresses the intensity of his fondness for Johnson.OllyT said:
All the polling indicates that this issue cut right through, it was anything but a "Westminster bubble", it got huge traction. You believe that it has made the government look stronger by ignoring what a huge majority of people right across the political divide felt about the issue, we will see.
This week he has been reposting Barnard Castle Eye Test memes with glee. That's how deep this has cut.
Until the one that does cut through happens. And cut-through is pretty unpredictable.
To take an analogy I think I picked up here, blanking out all "scandals" is like picking up pennies from the path of a steamroller. Most days, you end up ahead. Until the day you don't.
Incidentally, isn't "misunderstanding low-probability high-hazard events" one of the things Dom accuses the British Governing Class of not getting?3
