Betfair Sportsbook's odds on Cummings still being in his present position on Sunday, 1 June 2020 have shortened further to 1/3, the passage of time of course being a factor. The contrary bet is currently priced at 2/1.
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
Massive numbers of moths last night for May - like the height of summer. Best of a large bunch was this stunning fresh-out-the-box Lime Hawkmoth. Big as your hand (well, my hand anyway)
Nice one - my honeysuckle is in full flower and I`ve been out at night thinking I may see some moths feeding, but nothing.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
This is the biggest PR blunder and destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax
You have forgotten Jeremy Corbyn, everything he did was a disaster
Corbyn was hoovered up and put out with the rubbish, Boris still sits pride of place on the mantlepiece.
That may be the case but that's not CHB was talking about. He said it was the worst destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax. CHB has "conveniently" ignored the last N yrs of Corbyn, when every day was a disaster, so my point stands.,
As far as I can tell the government's "move on" line is making things worse. I think people have accepted that Dom is staying but it means the Tories have lost 3m+ voters. The whole party is now infected with it, even if Boris was to go before 2024 I don't see a route to majority government. The party has transformed itself from being on the side of the people to being the elite in about 7 days.
I actually think that Starmer now has a route to winning 100-120 seats. If he drops some of the socially lefty crazy culture war stuff like letting biological men into women's bathrooms etc... he might just be able to get a Blair style swing and end up with 320-340 seats in parliament.
None of this was possible a few days ago, the race is now completely open where it never was before, even after the bungling response to the virus.
Is this a PR balls-up of rare proportions? Yes. But you're making a lot of my case for me. In 4 years, are people who hate identity politics suddenly going to love it because of Dominic Cummings? Are they suddenly going to like sky-high taxes and socialism because of Cummings? Mass immigration because of Cummings? Political correctness because of Cummings? No, they're not.
There's no doubt that 'events' are capable of pissing voters off, perhaps even in the medium or long term (although I'm sceptical about the latter - no one gets angry about MPs' expenses now, and that was once a much bigger story than Dom).
Ultimately, if the recovery from the virus is good, then the Tories have a good chance of holding on to power. If it isn't, then it doesn't really matter what a single SpaD did or didn't do four years prior.
No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.
As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
I don't underestimate Keir at all. He's definitely swinging to the centre on political culture, and making superficial noises about a similar swing on some cultural issues. Though he hasn't made any significant shift on the economy, and I don't ultimately believe he will.
He's doing this intelligently so far, but there are pitfalls even for him.
First, Labour politics is a crusade of moral fervour and 'passion' for many activists and voters - if you can't get the thrill of an extreme platform and hating the Tories openly, then a lot of the fun goes out of politics for these people, and they may despise him as much they did Miliband for being milquetoast.
Second - although this is more a pitfall for Labour values than its electoral prospects - if he becomes Blair then he _deserves_ to beat the Tories and win power. Many Conservatives will genuinely not be afraid to vote for him, nor will Lib Dems and others. A Labour Party that's not dangerous would be a massive win for the country.
I'm not yet convinced he'll get there, wish to get there, or be allowed to get there. But we'll see.
Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
Relatively speaking, yes. But note the message. Labour can win an election if they drop those pesky Labour values. That, to me, does not sound like somebody who wants to meet in the middle and kick a ball about. It sounds like somebody still very much in the trenches.
I disagree. The point about the emotional side of Labour activists is very important. The passion, moralising and certainty that drives many to join Labour to bring about change, is a turn off for many voters, even if they quite like some or many of the policies.
Hating the Tories and showing it with passion is a pathetic position for a major party in a mostly 2 party country.
I dislike the PM and this govt very much, but I couldnt dream of hating someone just because they voted for it. And even if I could I would know with certainty it isnt a good way to convince them to change their minds.
Radical policies are needed for the country, the coming decade is not going to be bland because of the rate of technical change and international turbulence. They will be needed whoever is in power.
The important thing is that the policies are based on core Labour values and the biggest of these is the redistribution of wealth and power in favour of those who have little of either. That should be radical enough for anybody.
Activists are a different breed. You need passion to put in the time and people are more likely to feel passionate about a policy platform they feel will really change the country rather than tinkering around within narrow centrist parameters.
Does the passion of some Labour activists spill over into hating the Tories? You bet it does. Not great. But I'm not sure how it can ever be much different. Parties need activists and when you're very strongly for one side it tends to mean you are very anti the other. It works both ways. Look at some of the more strident PB Tories. They hate Labour and 'hate' is the word.
My experience of the Tory version of activists is that a very large proportion are weirdos. Obsessed by politics to the exclusion of everything else. Unfortunately for both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party the more sane centrists have had enough and realised there are better things to do than stuff envelopes. The dregs have therefore become more concentrated, and unrepresentative. The most stupid thing our parties did was to remove the election of leaders from MPs (who are properly representative of all shades) and put it in the hands of said dregs. This is what has led to the appointment of Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson as the two main leaders at the last election. A choice between a political version of dumb and dumber.
Tory activists on the whole are councilors or want to be councilors, many don’t have a political thought in their head, they just want to be on the council. Then you have the more ambitious and then those seeking to protect their control over the local and national economy. To some it’s a way of life as it is in other parties. Both labour and Tory think they are entitled to ‘their patch’ and resent anybody trying to deprive them of it.
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
That reminds me. Wasn't Johnson meant to be on the very brink of publishing the Russian influence report that sadly he had to delay due to the election?
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes.
Some stat.
The Scottish Govt have got away relatively scrutiny free on their performance on COVID19 which has been pretty poor.
Yes the sainted Nicola is completely blameless.. I should think she has been far too busy worrying about what Alex is going to say.. squeaky bum time...
You unionists keep hoping and praying, SNP with or without her keep getting more and more popular, wonder why.
As far as I can tell the government's "move on" line is making things worse. I think people have accepted that Dom is staying but it means the Tories have lost 3m+ voters. The whole party is now infected with it, even if Boris was to go before 2024 I don't see a route to majority government. The party has transformed itself from being on the side of the people to being the elite in about 7 days.
I actually think that Starmer now has a route to winning 100-120 seats. If he drops some of the socially lefty crazy culture war stuff like letting biological men into women's bathrooms etc... he might just be able to get a Blair style swing and end up with 320-340 seats in parliament.
None of this was possible a few days ago, the race is now completely open where it never was before, even after the bungling response to the virus.
Is this a PR balls-up of rare proportions? Yes. But you're making a lot of my case for me. In 4 years, are people who hate identity politics suddenly going to love it because of Dominic Cummings? Are they suddenly going to like sky-high taxes and socialism because of Cummings? Mass immigration because of Cummings? Political correctness because of Cummings? No, they're not.
There's no doubt that 'events' are capable of pissing voters off, perhaps even in the medium or long term (although I'm sceptical about the latter - no one gets angry about MPs' expenses now, and that was once a much bigger story than Dom).
Ultimately, if the recovery from the virus is good, then the Tories have a good chance of holding on to power. If it isn't, then it doesn't really matter what a single SpaD did or didn't do four years prior.
No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.
As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
I don't underestimate Keir at all. He's definitely swinging to the centre on political culture, and making superficial noises about a similar swing on some cultural issues. Though he hasn't made any significant shift on the economy, and I don't ultimately believe he will.
He's doing this intelligently so far, but there are pitfalls even for him.
First, Labour politics is a crusade of moral fervour and 'passion' for many activists and voters - if you can't get the thrill of an extreme platform and hating the Tories openly, then a lot of the fun goes out of politics for these people, and they may despise him as much they did Miliband for being milquetoast.
Second - although this is more a pitfall for Labour values than its electoral prospects - if he becomes Blair then he _deserves_ to beat the Tories and win power. Many Conservatives will genuinely not be afraid to vote for him, nor will Lib Dems and others. A Labour Party that's not dangerous would be a massive win for the country.
I'm not yet convinced he'll get there, wish to get there, or be allowed to get there. But we'll see.
Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
Relatively speaking, yes. But note the message. Labour can win an election if they drop those pesky Labour values. That, to me, does not sound like somebody who wants to meet in the middle and kick a ball about. It sounds like somebody still very much in the trenches.
I disagree. The point about the emotional side of Labour activists is very important. The passion, moralising and certainty that drives many to join Labour to bring about change, is a turn off for many voters, even if they quite like some or many of the policies.
Hating the Tories and showing it with passion is a pathetic position for a major party in a mostly 2 party country.
I dislike the PM and this govt very much, but I couldnt dream of hating someone just because they voted for it. And even if I could I would know with certainty it isnt a good way to convince them to change their minds.
Radical policies are needed for the country, the coming decade is not going to be bland because of the rate of technical change and international turbulence. They will be needed whoever is in power.
The important thing is that the policies are based on core Labour values and the biggest of these is the redistribution of wealth and power in favour of those who have little of either. That should be radical enough for anybody.
Activists are a different breed. You need passion to put in the time and people are more likely to feel passionate about a policy platform they feel will really change the country rather than tinkering around within narrow centrist parameters.
Does the passion of some Labour activists spill over into hating the Tories? You bet it does. Not great. But I'm not sure how it can ever be much different. Parties need activists and when you're very strongly for one side it tends to mean you are very anti the other. It works both ways. Look at some of the more strident PB Tories. They hate Labour and 'hate' is the word.
My experience of the Tory version of activists is that a very large proportion are weirdos. Obsessed by politics to the exclusion of everything else. Unfortunately for both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party the more sane centrists have had enough and realised there are better things to do than stuff envelopes. The dregs have therefore become more concentrated, and unrepresentative. The most stupid thing our parties did was to remove the election of leaders from MPs (who are properly representative of all shades) and put it in the hands of said dregs. This is what has led to the appointment of Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson as the two main leaders at the last election. A choice between a political version of dumb and dumber.
Boris won amongst MPs. I believed MPs would have the sense not to elect a leader clearly vulnerable to all the same charges they'd laid against Corbyn (including the untrue ones) but Boris led in the polls which was crucial.
I don't watch Newsnight (how could I watch anything with Lewis Goodall), but I've heard Emily Maitlis has been referred to Ofcom and could be in trouble. Something to do with last night's show.
I don't watch Newsnight (how could I watch anything with Lewis Goodall), but I've heard Emily Maitlis has been referred to Ofcom and could be in trouble. Something to do with last night's show.
If only the Government had a special adviser with the drive and motivation to introduce some drastic, er, 'reforms' to the BBC...
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes.
Some stat.
I'm not sure why it's surprising that a virus that mainly kills old people should affect care homes worse than anywhere else. That's exactly what you would expect in the circumstances.
I don't watch Newsnight (how could I watch anything with Lewis Goodall), but I've heard Emily Maitlis has been referred to Ofcom and could be in trouble. Something to do with last night's show.
Private care homes , word Private gives you a clue. Scottish Government having to bail out greedy Tories after they have made fortunes and then let the old grannies fend for themselves. Having to move SNHS staff in to support Tory robber Barons, would not have happened if we had not been a colony.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes.
Some stat.
The Scottish Govt have got away relatively scrutiny free on their performance on COVID19 which has been pretty poor.
Who has been remiss in their scrutinising? If you think newspapers, the state broadcaster(s) and the opposition parties have not been giving the Scottish government a very hard time over Covid-19, you obviously don't live in Scotland.
Private care homes , word Private gives you a clue. Scottish Government having to bail out greedy Tories after they have made fortunes and then let the old grannies fend for themselves. Having to move SNHS staff in to support Tory robber Barons, would not have happened if we had not been a colony.
Aren't the Scottish government responsible for regulations in that area?
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
Grifters to the left of me, grifters to the right. They're all at it at the moment. I don't know about Mr Grimes and his endeavour although a quick look at its twitter feed says its not something I would agree with.
But as a general point most of these talking heads, op-ed writers, contrarians and the like. It's all about the £££££££££. If you find a slot machine that continually pays out you're not going to stop playing it.
This is the biggest PR blunder and destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax
You have forgotten Jeremy Corbyn, everything he did was a disaster
Corbyn was hoovered up and put out with the rubbish, Boris still sits pride of place on the mantlepiece.
That may be the case but that's not CHB was talking about. He said it was the worst destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax. CHB has "conveniently" ignored the last N yrs of Corbyn, when every day was a disaster, so my point stands.,
This fiasco runs Corbyn pretty close. In fact, I think Corbyn edges it on the competence question.That is as low a bar as is physically possible, but Boris shades the incompetence nonetheless.
As ever, it is not the initial error that bites hardest, it is the cover up. This cover up was so brazen it was performed in broad daylight, anticipating that the punters were too dull to see through the con. Maybe we are.
The more relevant quote - as attributed to Benjamin Jowett - is 'Never retreat! Never explain! Get it done, and let them howl!'
Wonderful to see Boris following the Master's dictum.
The trouble is that Dom did try to explain. That explanation made things worse, because the view of the people is that it was, in some important places, a stupid explanation.
Only some?
The trip up to Durham in the first place - there are wrinkles that don't quite hang right, and he shouldn't have done it, but just about forgiveable.
The "family day out to test my eyes" is the bit that's cutting through most (e.g. today's Star) because of it's four-year-old-with-hand-in-the-cookie-jar absurdity.
That really was absurd. So silly. Kind of sits well (sadly) with the idea of him getting back to work and immediately fiddling with his historic blog to make himself look like Gypsy Rose Lee on the virus.
Still, I've had a contrarian thought. If by a small stretch of the imagination we were to think of the duopoly at the top of this government as Wham, I get a nasty feeling that Johnson is the Andrew Ridgeley. Which means there is a genuine national interest case for Cummings staying.
Given he most probably IS staying, I quite like this way of thinking about it. Always seek the positives if you can being a motto of mine.
I see Madeira is offering tourists tests on arrival. Why don't we do that, instead of quarantine?
Because if you're infected but asymptomatic you'll pass any test as "clear".
Are you sure? I thought that the test identified the existence of pathogens rather than symptoms?
If you get the nasal/throat swab or saliva test, you will get a false negative test result:
100% of the time on the day you are exposed to the virus. (There are so few viral particles in your nose or saliva so soon after infection that the test cannot detect them.)
About 40% of the time if you are tested four days after exposure to the virus.
About 20% of the time if you develop symptoms and are tested three days after those symptoms started.
And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
It's not about getting smashed. Pub gardens are communal spaces. People behave differently than they do in their own gardens, the numbers would be greater, and the risk of infecting strangers is greater.
To be clear, I personally think the rules should be relaxed to allow this, as I think the risks are manageable and the benefit in economic and social terms is worth having. But it's silly not to recognise that there is a very valid argument on the other side.
Cyclefree's second point, though - that if you keep such businesses closed for much longer, then you have effectively finished them - needs answering.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes.
Some stat.
The Scottish Govt have got away relatively scrutiny free on their performance on COVID19 which has been pretty poor.
Who has been remiss in their scrutinising? If you think newspapers, the state broadcaster(s) and the opposition parties have not been giving the Scottish government a very hard time over Covid-19, you obviously don't live in Scotland.
Yes, exactly. The wider British press and media have been verging on the deferential to the Scottish regime. I have seen articles like the one from Brian Wilson in the Scotsman which was very good and posed fair questions however the online SNP supporters just accused him of being a Unionist stooge. So no rebuttal.
Private care homes , word Private gives you a clue. Scottish Government having to bail out greedy Tories after they have made fortunes and then let the old grannies fend for themselves. Having to move SNHS staff in to support Tory robber Barons, would not have happened if we had not been a colony.
drug dealing and burglary in Scotland are private enterprises too.
No doubt that's not the Scottish government's remit either.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
I don't watch Newsnight (how could I watch anything with Lewis Goodall), but I've heard Emily Maitlis has been referred to Ofcom and could be in trouble. Something to do with last night's show.
I do not watch it either, but I have seen the clip down below.
She did not say anything we did not know. Cumming has admitted that he drove up there when the guidance said that he should not and lots of the public are hopping mad.
If Ofcom start prosecuting journalists for repeating facts in the public domain then we can explain the disappearance of Kim Jong Un - he has dyed his hair blond and moved into Downing St and we will be the United Kingdom of North Korea
Deep thought: People are talking like Kier Starmer not calling for Cummings to resign is a sign of cunning tactical genius, but maybe it means Kier Starmer knows that someone important on the Labour side broke the lockdown.
You are not the first person to suggest this on this forum.
Let us imagine the alternate history version of this crisis but with Seamus and Corbyn in charge.
morning of the story breaking Corbyn has demanded an emergency session of parliament to demand Dominic Cummings is sacked. We haven't had the Barnard Castle stuff revealed yet. Immediately every Tory MP rallies round the flag. This is a partisan hitjob. Twitter is filled with Right wing talking heads decrying the Labour party. The Barnard Castle stuff then comes out and is dismissed due to slight imperfections in the witnesses recollection of events. This is all over by Monday.
Starmer is following the Napoleonic maxim to perfection. Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake. Corbyn would be all over this like a cheap suit.
Also, Starmer has called for Cummnigs to be sacked - but only have a suitably long amount of time and in a low key way (saying he would have sacked him)
I think Starmer is handling it pretty well, but in danger of overdoing the restraint. In your alternate hgistory, I disagree. Corbyn would be ignoring Cummings (he virtually never attacks individuals, even the obvious ones) but demanding a special session to examine the impact of easing lockdown on low-paid workers. Cummings would get away with it for that reason, rather than that Corbyn was zeroing in on him.
Not that it matters now!
Starmer should focus on two things now:-
1. The lockdown easing measures and, in particular, whether they are being applied fairly. Or intelligently. See what I have already said about the absurdity of opening indoor shops before outside venues. Or allowing people to congregate in gardens but not go to a pub with a garden. Plus why the 2-metre advice (it’s not a rule) when most of Europe has it down to 1 metre.
2. Sunak’s plans to stop furlough, particularly the rumoured idea of asking businesses legally prevented from opening to pay 20% of wages and NI when they don’t have any income.
Completely agree with both points. Allowing outside venues for pubs and restaurants and meeting up under strict guidelines would make people far happier with continuing social distancing, and looks to be significantly safer than small indoor shops.
One sensible step might be a relaxation of licensing laws, that would allow an existing licensee to set up a temporary bar in a nearby park, field or car park, using a van, tent or market stall structure. Anyone who’s walked up the hill from Twickenham station to the stadium on a match day will know what I mean
My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.
It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.
And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
Hmm. I wondered if the logic lies in the need to track and trace, in the absence of a decent app. I'd remember who came to visit me at home, but wouldn't have a clue who was in the table next to me in the local pub, or even always what times I had been a week before. But if the t&t scheme was using things like credit/debit card data anyway, that difference isn't so strong.
I don’t believe there is any logic to any of this now.
The pub trade’s best hope is to get Dominic Cummings to come to a pub for the sake of his eyesight or wife or because it’s the only place he can write his blogs or something.
A live press conference, down the Dog and Duck, with Boris and his Dad playing dominoes .
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
50% of Scottish deaths have been in care homes.
Some stat.
I'm not sure why it's surprising that a virus that mainly kills old people should affect care homes worse than anywhere else. That's exactly what you would expect in the circumstances.
The question is why Care home deaths have been proportionately worse in Scotland than other parts of the UK
The whole concept of a "second wave" is based on the experience of seasonal flu. I'm not sure why that would necessarily translate to Covid-19.
I don't think that is right, it is based on projected R numbers with/without lockdown conditions being imposed. There seems to be a real debate as to why Spanish flu had a second wave - lifting of restrictions vs large scale troop movements vs mutation of virus. If the firsat of these is right it is a useful parallel, but that is not to say it is the basis for expecting a 2nd wave now.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
Yeah, I was definitely doing that.
I may have to resort to crude sarcasm in the future just for clarity's sake.
Is there anyone railing against the metropolitan elite who didn't go to either a private school or Oxbridge? It's all pure projection.
To rip off the Great Man -
I can think of only one bunch of people who would be worse if they were in charge than the metropolitan elite and that is the shower of charlatans and bigots who are forever railing against the metropolitan elite.
This is the biggest PR blunder and destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax
The poll tax was first introduced in 1989.
The Conservatives governed Britain for 8 more years after that...
#justsaying
It ended Thatcher's Premiership and Major scrapped it as practically his first act as PM.
So I am unclear as to your point - is it that this will end Johnson and his successor's first act will be to sack Cummings? Because that's the implication.
So could I but all he's trying to do is get a conspiracy theory running in much the same way as they tried to smear Tony Lloyd earlier on. More at home on Guido I would have thought
Extenuating circumstances? They were introduced retrospectively on Sunday.
No they were always there. But that's what I was criticising the government for before. Too apologetic and too equivocal.
If someone says they're having a mental health crisis and should they get help the answer should be YES. Yes, yes, yes.
No it's, no buts. If you're feeling suicidal or anything similar and need help then get the help you need.
That's not the same as being irritated at being at home.
That is so. Nonetheless the interpretation by government of what constituted an extensuating circumstance changed retrospectively on Sunday. This can be seen by the notion that plod has to return the fines issued over lockdown breaches, because plod 'misunderstood' what extenuating circumstances meant.
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
The whole concept of a "second wave" is based on the experience of seasonal flu. I'm not sure why that would necessarily translate to Covid-19.
The main concept is that if it's still endemic in our population, going back to the same behaviour that allowed it to spread then would allow it to spread again.
It's why the relaxations of lockdowns haven't been to abandon all restrictions but to carefully judge which relaxations can maintain maximum social distancing and/or minimise infectivity routes.
Because why should it be any different if we had, say, 10,000 people infected in March and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions to having 10,000 people infected at the start of June and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions? We have, from all reliable evidence, not had anywhere near enough people infected and recovered to provide any appreciable herd immunity.
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
What is the purpose of Cummings moths? Other than just being ugly nuisances disliked by a lot of people?
Extenuating circumstances? They were introduced retrospectively on Sunday.
No they were always there. But that's what I was criticising the government for before. Too apologetic and too equivocal.
If someone says they're having a mental health crisis and should they get help the answer should be YES. Yes, yes, yes.
No it's, no buts. If you're feeling suicidal or anything similar and need help then get the help you need.
That's not the same as being irritated at being at home.
That is so. Nonetheless the interpretation by government of what constituted an extensuating circumstance changed retrospectively on Sunday. This can be seen by the notion that plod has to return the fines issued over lockdown breaches, because plod 'misunderstood' what extenuating circumstances meant.
I don't know how it works but there should be an appeal process either way. The Plod were not perfect and we already knew that before this weekend.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
Yes by and large.
Probably - but there have been several examples of absentee owners having an atrocious outbreak - Skye and Man spring to mind. In the latter one home accounted for 20 of the islands 24 cases. The Manx government shut it down. The Sandbank resident owners were miffed.
I see that we are still focused on the absolute trivia of Cummings travel plans rather than the scandal that several thousand more jobs will be lost today (and tomorrow, and the next day) because of a lockdown that can safely be lifted in at least the vast bulk of the country with social distancing and adequate precautions.
As it happens I gave an online talk on this yesterday. The government has (and has had since 11th May) excellent advice covering 8 sectors of the economy designed to mitigate risk. It is well written, clear and helpful. It can be found here for those interested: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19
This is more than enough for most of our economy to get back to work now and I have no doubt similar guidance could be produced for restaurants and cafes. Pubs without outdoor gardens may be a bit more challenging.
We need to move on from this. I can't help feeling that a public sector who have been cossetted from the pain is so risk adverse that they would rather burn endless businesses than have anyone asking a question of them.
Most small (and many large) businesses already operate on the margins of viability, and will probably only be running at 20-30 per cent capacity under the Covid Safe guidance.
Theatres which can only fill every sixth seat; cosy restaurants with their capacity down from 30 covers to 8, factories whose lines can't operate without wholescale re-engineering.
Rishi Sunak is generally accepted to have played a blinder in the support offered, and is rightly finding ways of getting people back asap given the ruinous cost. But even with successful, simple messaging to make that happen, I can't see it being anything but utter economic carnage.
I agree that businesses that deal with a lot of people are going to find this difficult but they will need to adjust. So in a café if you have half the number of covers the overhead per cup of coffee sold increases. So the cost must increase too. Where possible overhead should be reduced, rents are going to have to fall, for example. Fewer staff will be required. Some will not survive the changes but none will survive a lockdown that runs through the summer and into the autumn.
That is simply unrealistic. Margins are very tight in hospitality. You simply cannot reduce overheads just like that and some of the measures talked about will require more staff not fewer. Nor can you double your prices.
1. If businesses are legally forced to operate in a manner which reduces their turnover to 20-30% of what it was before then they need to continue being supported or be given compensation, closed down and the owners can use that money to do something else entrepreneurial.
2. IMO guidance should be given. Guidance - it should not be a legal requirement. And businesses should take reasonable steps - reasonable in the context of their business. It is reasonable to have hand gel available, tables cleaned down, paper towels instead of air dryers, decent ventilation etc but not reasonable to expect venues where their whole shtick is getting people together to force them apart. Social closeness is the point of such venues. Forcing them to do the opposite is to kill them.
People should be advised but learn to take their own decisions about how they live.
We really need a proper debate about whether we are willing to live in a world without all the venues and activities which bring people close. I tried to start one the other day with my header. It really is needed. Life without many of the cultural, artistic, sporting and socialising activities we know and love is not life. It is mere existence. And it harms people in very real ways, as my family know to their cost only too well.
3. The government needs to work with the insurance industry to make the business interruption insurance policies business bought - expensively - real. Some burden-sharing between government, insurance companies and businesses is needed. But insurers have not treated their customers fairly. This has caused some anger and we need real action now not some ineffectual hand-wringing by the FCA in a few years time.</blockquote Businesses do not have a right to trade nor does the government have an obligaiton to fund their trading. If they cannot sell their output for more than it costs to produce it they will go out of business.
In the case of cafes they can double their prices if everyone else is having to do the same, that is it is a level playing field. Why should we not pay £5 for a cappuccino , with or without chocolate, if that is what it costs? In relation to your numbered points: 1. No. They have to adapt. We are going to have this situation for an extended period of time. 2. Agreed. I linked to such guidance for various sectors this morning. The best parts of that guidance is the emphasis on thinking. 3. There are various claims groups already in relation to these policies and the Ombudsman is looking to bring a test case involving several of the clauses which have different wording. It is certainly important that this issue is resolved before the business falls.
This is the biggest PR blunder and destruction of popularity disaster since the poll tax
The poll tax was first introduced in 1989.
The Conservatives governed Britain for 8 more years after that...
#justsaying
Wasnt it replaced quickly and the PM removed?
Wiki says it was introduced in England and Wales in 1990.
Govt announced it would be dropped in 1991 Thatcher was gone well before that in November 1990
So you are advocating a complete change of policy PM out within months and hope a new leader can hang on with barely a working majority at the next GE.
It's going to be a hard sell, given that their per-capita death rate has been one seventh that of Sweden (which followed the "less lockdown" route, and the damage to the Norwegian economy has been less than that experienced by Sweden.
If Ofcom start prosecuting journalists for repeating facts in the public domain then we can explain the disappearance of Kim Jong Un - he has dyed his hair blond and moved into Downing St
If the BBC decide to be totally independent I would be happy, then they can push any agenda they want to.
If you get your money via threats of imprisonment, then different standards apply.
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
What is the purpose of Cummings moths? Other than just being ugly nuisances disliked by a lot of people?
They pollinate flowers and let them reproduce. Mr C on the other hand ...
Massive numbers of moths last night for May - like the height of summer. Best of a large bunch was this stunning fresh-out-the-box Lime Hawkmoth. Big as your hand (well, my hand anyway)
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Running interference for "Dom" with your moths. No-one is fooled.
"While there’s plenty we don’t know about Covid, the big-picture science has been settled for some time already. As epidemics go it’s not that bad. It kills mainly the very old and infirm; children and fit people under 60ish often get away with mild or asymptomatic infection. Those who become ill do not, in fact, die like flies. About 99 per cent of them get better quite quickly. The raw death numbers that we have been bombarded with over the last months are highly unreliable and exaggerate the death toll. Many of the excess deaths will have been due to lockdown and its knock-on effects, rather than the virus."
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
What is the purpose of Cummings moths? Other than just being ugly nuisances disliked by a lot of people?
Far bigger pollinators in the great scheme of things than a bee. Get a hard time from those like you - whilst doing all the hard graft in the darkness....
The whole concept of a "second wave" is based on the experience of seasonal flu. I'm not sure why that would necessarily translate to Covid-19.
The main concept is that if it's still endemic in our population, going back to the same behaviour that allowed it to spread then would allow it to spread again.
It's why the relaxations of lockdowns haven't been to abandon all restrictions but to carefully judge which relaxations can maintain maximum social distancing and/or minimise infectivity routes.
Because why should it be any different if we had, say, 10,000 people infected in March and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions to having 10,000 people infected at the start of June and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions? We have, from all reliable evidence, not had anywhere near enough people infected and recovered to provide any appreciable herd immunity.
Or, as in 1918/9, a second wave can be a mutated form of the virus with different characteristics/susceptible targets, if usually with crossover of immunity
What evidence we have suggests there isn’t already a high level of immunity, yet the data patterns from across the world and within the UK suggest that there might be.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
Yes by and large.
Probably - but there have been several examples of absentee owners having an atrocious outbreak - Skye and Man spring to mind. In the latter one home accounted for 20 of the islands 24 cases. The Manx government shut it down. The Sandbank resident owners were miffed.
There are exceptions in any industry but I have to believe that anyone who goes into care does so because they care about it. Like teaching, nursing etc
Regarding absentee owners that can happen in any sector too. So long as they have passionate and good managers that should be fine. It's the managers who matter more most likely than the owners, besides owner/managers.
We have, from all reliable evidence, not had anywhere near enough people infected and recovered to provide any appreciable herd immunity.
Reversing that; if the evidence from other countries is that relaxation does not result in an 2nd peak, then surely some form of herd immunity has been reached?
As far as I can tell the government's "move on" line is making things worse. I think people have accepted that Dom is staying but it means the Tories have lost 3m+ voters. The whole party is now infected with it, even if Boris was to go before 2024 I don't see a route to majority government. The party has transformed itself from being on the side of the people to being the elite in about 7 days.
I actually think that Starmer now has a route to winning 100-120 seats. If he drops some of the socially lefty crazy culture war stuff like letting biological men into women's bathrooms etc... he might just be able to get a Blair style swing and end up with 320-340 seats in parliament.
None of this was possible a few days ago, the race is now completely open where it never was before, even after the bungling response to the virus.
Is this a PR balls-up of rare proportions? Yes. But you're making a lot of my case for me. In 4 years, are people who hate identity politics suddenly going to love it because of Dominic Cummings? Are they suddenly going to like sky-high taxes and socialism because of Cummings? Mass immigration because of Cummings? Political correctness because of Cummings? No, they're not.
There's no doubt that 'events' are capable of pissing voters off, perhaps even in the medium or long term (although I'm sceptical about the latter - no one gets angry about MPs' expenses now, and that was once a much bigger story than Dom).
Ultimately, if the recovery from the virus is good, then the Tories have a good chance of holding on to power. If it isn't, then it doesn't really matter what a single SpaD did or didn't do four years prior.
No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.
As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
I don't underestimate Keir at all. He's definitely swinging to the centre on political culture, and making superficial noises about a similar swing on some cultural issues. Though he hasn't made any significant shift on the economy, and I don't ultimately believe he will.
He's doing this intelligently so far, but there are pitfalls even for him.
First, Labour politics is a crusade of moral fervour and 'passion' for many activists and voters - if you can't get the thrill of an extreme platform and hating the Tories openly, then a lot of the fun goes out of politics for these people, and they may despise him as much they did Miliband for being milquetoast.
Second - although this is more a pitfall for Labour values than its electoral prospects - if he becomes Blair then he _deserves_ to beat the Tories and win power. Many Conservatives will genuinely not be afraid to vote for him, nor will Lib Dems and others. A Labour Party that's not dangerous would be a massive win for the country.
I'm not yet convinced he'll get there, wish to get there, or be allowed to get there. But we'll see.
Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
Relatively speaking, yes. But note the message. Labour can win an election if they drop those pesky Labour values. That, to me, does not sound like somebody who wants to meet in the middle and kick a ball about. It sounds like somebody still very much in the trenches.
I disagree. The point about the emotional side of Labour activists is very important. The passion, moralising and certainty that drives many to join Labour to bring about change, is a turn off for many voters, even if they quite like some or many of the policies.
Hating the Tories and showing it with passion is a pathetic position for a major party in a mostly 2 party country.
I dislike the PM and this govt very much, but I couldnt dream of hating someone just because they voted for it. And even if I could I would know with certainty it isnt a good way to convince them to change their minds.
Radical policies are needed for the country, the coming decade is not going to be bland because of the rate of technical change and international turbulence. They will be needed whoever is in power.
The important thing is that the policies are based on core Labour values and the biggest of these is the redistribution of wealth and power in favour of those who have little of either. That should be radical enough for anybody.
Activists are a different breed. You need passion to put in the time and people are more likely to feel passionate about a policy platform they feel will really change the country rather than tinkering around within narrow centrist parameters.
Does the passion of some Labour activists spill over into hating the Tories? You bet it does. Not great. But I'm not sure how it can ever be much different. Parties need activists and when you're very strongly for one side it tends to mean you are very anti the other. It works both ways. Look at some of the more strident PB Tories. They hate Labour and 'hate' is the word.
My experience of the Tory version of activists is that a very large proportion are weirdos. Obsessed by politics to the exclusion of everything else. Unfortunately for both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party the more sane centrists have had enough and realised there are better things to do than stuff envelopes. The dregs have therefore become more concentrated, and unrepresentative. The most stupid thing our parties did was to remove the election of leaders from MPs (who are properly representative of all shades) and put it in the hands of said dregs. This is what has led to the appointment of Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson as the two main leaders at the last election. A choice between a political version of dumb and dumber.
Tory MPs elected William Hague over Ken Clarke, Labour MPs elected Gordon Brown unopposed.
Tory members elected David Cameron, Labour members elected Blair and Starmer, MPs are not flawless.
Private care homes , word Private gives you a clue. Scottish Government having to bail out greedy Tories after they have made fortunes and then let the old grannies fend for themselves. Having to move SNHS staff in to support Tory robber Barons, would not have happened if we had not been a colony.
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Likes aren't really a thing on PB.
Oh I don't know? Boris fanboys seem to vote for each other like they were former Soviet States in a Eurovision Song Contest.
Businesses do not have a right to trade nor does the government have an obligaiton to fund their trading. If they cannot sell their output for more than it costs to produce it they will go out of business.
In the case of cafes they can double their prices if everyone else is having to do the same, that is it is a level playing field. Why should we not pay £5 for a cappuccino , with or without chocolate, if that is what it costs?
Because people will not pay it. It is bad enough paying (say) Starbucks £3 for a coffee when, for a few pennies more, you can pop in to Tesco and buy a bag of Starbucks's coffee for £3.50
All that will happen is that all High Street coffee shops will close
For further info, I refer you to either the Scandinavians whose booze prices are so high (level playing field) that there is a black market in booze, our own tobacco industry where prices are so high there is a black market in fags and finally prohibition in the USA where moonshine sales replaced the legitimate market.
All level playing fields that the public work around.
Mr. T, some of those so incensed by that were content to cheer on the doctored content about Boris Johnson claiming we should take the virus on the chin, when he'd said the exact opposite.
I agree that neither side has a monopoly on the moral low ground and all smears that turn out to be lies need to be called out.
There are only a handful of posters trying to exonerate Cummings and it was entirely predicable that they would be the ones to jump on it and try to give it legs
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Christ, they're all at it. Either the marketplace of right wing, grifter ideas is getting seriously overcrowded or there's an inexhaustible appetite for this pish. Depressingly it may be the latter.
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
We have, from all reliable evidence, not had anywhere near enough people infected and recovered to provide any appreciable herd immunity.
Reversing that; if the evidence from other countries is that relaxation does not result in an 2nd peak, then surely some form of herd immunity has been reached?
By "relaxation" do you mean "abandonment of restrictions entirely" or do you mean "targeted partial relaxations in some areas while maximising social distancing"?
If the former, could you point to which European countries (given that we're all within two or three weeks of each other) have abandoned all restrictions?
If the latter, what has it got to do with abandoning restrictions and relying on immunity rather than trying to keep R below 1 while maximising freedoms?
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Running interference for "Dom" with your moths. No-one is fooled.
I started with the moths when we went into lockdown. You must at least concede that level of wargaming "running interference" is worthy of Dom himself?
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
They're going to be able to go out, meet friends, and have a drink in the sun in the near future.
Miss Vance, I used to read the Sniff Petrol site regularly (think F1 meets Top Gear). It had a bright orange background. One of our super sophisticated anti-adult material filters prevented the site being shown because the quantity of orange was thought to be naked flesh.
Also, a few years ago Checkpoint (comedic but insightful, sometimes, gaming new) ran a story on how a file was blocked in the UK because it ad .ex in it, with an S preceding the full stop. Because it might've been naughty.
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Running interference for "Dom" with your moths. No-one is fooled.
I started with the moths when we went into lockdown. You must at least concede that level of wargaming "running interference" is worthy of Dom himself?
Are these Tory moths though?. I think we should know.
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
Extenuating circumstances? They were introduced retrospectively on Sunday.
"In the early stages not everyone was aware of... failure of government communication..." Utter balls.
Hancock passim: "This is an instruction".
Instructions don't work for every circumstance. Would you stay at home if your home was on fire?
This madness is infuriating. What on earth is wrong with people using common sense?
Well, they may not be allowed to. Have a look at the Graun feed -
"A retired doctor who set up the UK’s first Covid-19 contact-tracing scheme has warned the Government faces major challenges after they struggled to persuade health and care workers to self-isolate.
Dr Bing Jones told BBC Radio 4’s The World At One programme that only a third of people involved in their testing scheme agreed to self isolate."
Boris has never been great on detail pre-covid, doing Q&A never something he was very poor at, but he did have a certain about of quick wit and charm to bullshit his way through. The classic one vs Paxman at the Tory party conference, where he managed to disarm everybody, basically had everybody laughing by the end.
His performance post-covid has been utterly pathetic. His defence of Cummings reminded me of Corbyn getting the Andrew Neil treatment over antisemitism.
I think the men in grey suits will let him own covid response and Brexit deal, then the Tories will do what they do best and ditch him in time for 2024.
I don't watch Newsnight (how could I watch anything with Lewis Goodall), but I've heard Emily Maitlis has been referred to Ofcom and could be in trouble. Something to do with last night's show.
Perhaps you would be kind enough to link us to the source of these disturbing things you keep hearing about. It makes a world of difference as to whether you have "just heard" it from closely connected to OFCOM or from Guido Fawkes.
Just an observation, but when the premier politics site in the UK has a picture of a moth getting more likes than any other comment, the Cummings story might just have run its course...
Yeah, but Lime hawkmoth? Definitely a winner.
We've yet to put our trap out this year, as it normally travels beyond the back garden.
Comments
PP/Betfair: 2/1 go, 1/3 stay
Starsports: 85/40 go, 1/3 stay
It looks from the price changes as if Ladbrokes are seeing money for Cummings to stay but their traders are still taking a view he will not.
Follow the money.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1265563344053899265?s=20
He is not a role model!
Some stat.
The Scottish Govt have got away relatively scrutiny free on their performance on COVID19 which has been pretty poor.
She should have had more integrity.
But as a general point most of these talking heads, op-ed writers, contrarians and the like. It's all about the £££££££££. If you find a slot machine that continually pays out you're not going to stop playing it.
As ever, it is not the initial error that bites hardest, it is the cover up. This cover up was so brazen it was performed in broad daylight, anticipating that the punters were too dull to see through the con. Maybe we are.
Still, I've had a contrarian thought. If by a small stretch of the imagination we were to think of the duopoly at the top of this government as Wham, I get a nasty feeling that Johnson is the Andrew Ridgeley. Which means there is a genuine national interest case for Cummings staying.
Given he most probably IS staying, I quite like this way of thinking about it. Always seek the positives if you can being a motto of mine.
100% of the time on the day you are exposed to the virus. (There are so few viral particles in your nose or saliva so soon after infection that the test cannot detect them.)
About 40% of the time if you are tested four days after exposure to the virus.
About 20% of the time if you develop symptoms and are tested three days after those symptoms started.
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus
If someone says they're having a mental health crisis and should they get help the answer should be YES. Yes, yes, yes.
No it's, no buts. If you're feeling suicidal or anything similar and need help then get the help you need.
That's not the same as being irritated at being at home.
No doubt that's not the Scottish government's remit either.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1265607684381966336?s=20
The Conservatives governed Britain for 8 more years after that...
#justsaying
She did not say anything we did not know. Cumming has admitted that he drove up there when the guidance said that he should not and lots of the public are hopping mad.
If Ofcom start prosecuting journalists for repeating facts in the public domain then we can explain the disappearance of Kim Jong Un - he has dyed his hair blond and moved into Downing St and we will be the United Kingdom of North Korea
"It's over, everyone. As you were..."
I may have to resort to crude sarcasm in the future just for clarity's sake.
I can think of only one bunch of people who would be worse if they were in charge than the metropolitan elite and that is the shower of charlatans and bigots who are forever railing against the metropolitan elite.
So I am unclear as to your point - is it that this will end Johnson and his successor's first act will be to sack Cummings? Because that's the implication.
https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/1265605427489763329?s=21
It's why the relaxations of lockdowns haven't been to abandon all restrictions but to carefully judge which relaxations can maintain maximum social distancing and/or minimise infectivity routes.
Because why should it be any different if we had, say, 10,000 people infected in March and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions to having 10,000 people infected at the start of June and no social distancing or infectivity restrictions? We have, from all reliable evidence, not had anywhere near enough people infected and recovered to provide any appreciable herd immunity.
Classic Dom
Wiki says it was introduced in England and Wales in 1990.
Govt announced it would be dropped in 1991 Thatcher was gone well before that in November 1990
So you are advocating a complete change of policy PM out within months and hope a new leader can hang on with barely a working majority at the next GE.
Really!!
If you get your money via threats of imprisonment, then different standards apply.
"While there’s plenty we don’t know about Covid, the big-picture science has been settled for some time already. As epidemics go it’s not that bad. It kills mainly the very old and infirm; children and fit people under 60ish often get away with mild or asymptomatic infection. Those who become ill do not, in fact, die like flies. About 99 per cent of them get better quite quickly. The raw death numbers that we have been bombarded with over the last months are highly unreliable and exaggerate the death toll. Many of the excess deaths will have been due to lockdown and its knock-on effects, rather than the virus."
(£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-dominic-cummings-saga-tells-us-about-lockdown
Utter balls.
Hancock passim: "This is an instruction".
What evidence we have suggests there isn’t already a high level of immunity, yet the data patterns from across the world and within the UK suggest that there might be.
Regarding absentee owners that can happen in any sector too. So long as they have passionate and good managers that should be fine. It's the managers who matter more most likely than the owners, besides owner/managers.
Tory members elected David Cameron, Labour members elected Blair and Starmer, MPs are not flawless.
All that will happen is that all High Street coffee shops will close
For further info, I refer you to either the Scandinavians whose booze prices are so high (level playing field) that there is a black market in booze, our own tobacco industry where prices are so high there is a black market in fags and finally prohibition in the USA where moonshine sales replaced the legitimate market.
All level playing fields that the public work around.
I agree that neither side has a monopoly on the moral low ground and all smears that turn out to be lies need to be called out.
There are only a handful of posters trying to exonerate Cummings and it was entirely predicable that they would be the ones to jump on it and try to give it legs
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
And will of course make it difficult to follow the money. Because it is filthy.
If the former, could you point to which European countries (given that we're all within two or three weeks of each other) have abandoned all restrictions?
If the latter, what has it got to do with abandoning restrictions and relying on immunity rather than trying to keep R below 1 while maximising freedoms?
This madness is infuriating. What on earth is wrong with people using common sense?
Remember, Beeb: "dig two graves".....
That IS happiness in Britain.
Also, a few years ago Checkpoint (comedic but insightful, sometimes, gaming new) ran a story on how a file was blocked in the UK because it ad .ex in it, with an S preceding the full stop. Because it might've been naughty.
"A retired doctor who set up the UK’s first Covid-19 contact-tracing scheme has warned the Government faces major challenges after they struggled to persuade health and care workers to self-isolate.
Dr Bing Jones told BBC Radio 4’s The World At One programme that only a third of people involved in their testing scheme agreed to self isolate."
A major problem was their employers.
His performance post-covid has been utterly pathetic. His defence of Cummings reminded me of Corbyn getting the Andrew Neil treatment over antisemitism.
I think the men in grey suits will let him own covid response and Brexit deal, then the Tories will do what they do best and ditch him in time for 2024.
We've yet to put our trap out this year, as it normally travels beyond the back garden.