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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the Cummings lockdown saga now in its seventh day some biting polling in Daily Mail
If the Team Johnson plan for the Cummings lockdown saga was to hope it would go away then there’s no sign of that this morning. Several papers have it as their main story and the usually Tory-backing Daily Mail is giving big prominence to the JL Partners polling above.
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He doesn't care
https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/gerona/glaa131/5843454
... In conclusion, the ApoE e4e4 allele increases risks of severe COVID-19 infection, independent of pre-existing dementia, cardiovascular disease, and type-2 diabetes. ApoE e4 not only affects lipoprotein function (and subsequent cardio-metabolic diseases) but also moderates macrophage pro-/anti-inflammatory phenotypes [9]. The novel coronavirus SARS- CoV-2 causing COVID-19 uses the ACE2 receptor for cell entry. ACE2 is highly expressed in type II alveolar cells in the lungs, where ApoE is one of the highly co-expressed genes [10]. Further investigation is needed to understand the biological mechanisms linking ApoE genotypes to COVID-19 severity.
Mike is also correct about this: when the Mail get their teeth into something they don't let go.
I was chatting to a very very true blue friend last night and she said it's 'inevitable' that Starmer will win the next General Election. I was taken aback and asked her why and she replied that we haven't even BEGUN to take the full economic impact yet - the nation's economy, the huge debt, the job losses. She is sure the Conservatives will lose in 2024.
What has propelled this is the astonishing gift to Labour by Johnson. In failing to act on Cummings he has single handedly gifted them at least a 10% swing (today's YouGov), and I suspect the full impact will be closer to 20%. That is, quite simply, gobsmackingly inept.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52814074
... President Emmanuel Macron's proposal includes €1bn to provide grants of up to €7,000 to encourage citizens to purchase electric vehicles.
It also puts money toward investments to make France a centre for electric vehicle output.
The plan comes as the industry braces for thousands of job cuts.
In return for the relief, the two main French car producers Renault and PSA have promised to focus production in France.
"We need a motivational goal - make France Europe's top producer of clean vehicles by bringing output to more than one million electric and hybrid cars per year over the next five years," President Macron told reporters at a press conference at the Valeo car factory in Etaples, northern France on Tuesday...
Even if there is truth in his story, the narrative by which Cummings contorted himself into those situations reveals him as either (a) some kind of Gordon Brittas type sitcom fool or (b) chronically henpecked by an inveterate option rejecter. Neither is a great look for a senior government adviser.
Tell her it is wise insurance. (A lot of strong Unionists had significant cash on Yes in 2014, just in case.)
A slight shift to Cummings resigning, overnight.
Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
PP/Betfair: 2/5 go, 7/4 stay
Starsports seems to have taken the market down
It really depends on how the government acts to revive the economy.
We’ve just seen a smart piece of thinking from Macron, in of itself not game changing, but an example of what is needed; can Sunak go beyond his bold initial reaction to get us out of the stasis he’s currently funding ?
If that message is diluted by Cummings then nobody in good conscience could let him stay
That assumes BoZo and the rest of the cabinet have a conscience
By the summer of 1992 the Conservative share of the vote was in the mid 40's. They regularly polled 45, 46%. As late as the 7th September they polled 43% with Gallup.
Then came Black Wednesday, September 16th exactly 23 weeks after the General Election. The Cons polling didn't hit rock bottom straightaway. In the immediate aftermath they only dropped around 7%. But another month on they were starting to poll at 30%, even into the high 20's. Likewise, it took a full month for Labour's share of the vote to begin rising in any meaningful way. Over the next year, and before Tony Blair was elected leader in 1994, Labour were starting to hit 20% opinion poll leads. That increased again when Blair took over.
My argument with this is that a paradigm shift in perception doesn't happen instantaneously. It takes several weeks, perhaps as many as 3-6 months. Some of that is via word of mouth (and I have many tory friends at the moment who are absolutely livid, hurt and disgusted - and talking about it), the mainstream media and, these days, online.
A lot also depends on the nature of the Opposition. I would suggest that Starmer is doing exactly what he should. He is measured, calm and forensic. The exact opposite of how Johnson is perceived.
If the current trend continues, and I expect it will, then this is very bad news for the Conservatives. When you consider the hit that is coming to the economy, to people's lives and livelihoods, then I would now suggest that my Conservative friend may be right. Against all previous odds, Labour are now favourites to win the next General Election.
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
Oops -- prices the wrong way round for PP. It should of course be
Ladbrokes: 6/4 go, 1/2 stay
PP/Betfair: 7/4 go, 2/5 stay
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1265519627687337987
I'm not sure that bringing Parliament back in traditional form is very good from a Public Health point of view, and I'm not sure that doing so to 'protect' Johnson at PMQ's will work either. Lot more women in this Parliament and women don't tend to cheer and heckle in the way that men do.
Boris Johnson died of Covid19.
He goes down in history as a hero and a legend.
The Conservatives elect a serious politician as leader, instead of a C-list comedian.
Con Maj nailed on.
'Led by Donkeys' might have a think about their name in this context, too!
Perhaps people are just naively looking at the decreasing coronavirus numbers and ignoring the fundamentals. Or perhaps they are reasoning that this is a temporary crisis that hasn't changed the real fundamentals. I don't know.
If John Smith hadn't dropped dead, what then? If the House of Commons had VONC'd Johnson in the week of Lady Hale's evisceration, what then?
You're right. Johnson has been very popular until now but that may be changing, alongside which he is clearly not competent for the job. The Conservatives won't ditch him because he won them a glorious victory. This could be a car crash 4 years.
A bit of flag waving and bashing the foreigners perhaps, but I don't think that enough.
Still 4 years to go, but I can see 2024 being another 1997. The palpable sense of decay, incompetence and confusion amongst the government grows by the day. BoZo is asleep at the wheel.
Anyway, it'll be Barnard castle that gets him. Partly because people literally appear to imagine him frolicking through some ruins.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201
It was particularly clever because, rather than directly call for Cummings to resign, it turns the focus onto Johnson's judgement not to fire him and his complicity.
Starmer can't credibly criticise Johnson's lack of leadership and then fail to act in a similar situation. If any of his senior team have broken self-isolation rules then we can expect that they will be instantly told to go.
The culture war is definitely here
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1265403606288777219?s=19
They shouldn't. Thatcher won a landslide in her last election. Didn't stop them axing her.
The PM isn't up to the job.
Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
Starmer may be dull, but he is totally in charge and clearly has no-one he depends upon as much as the PM depends upon Cummings.
After Black Wednesday the Tories had only 1 poll lead in 5 years, so no, so far this is no Black Wednesday
People look at this farrago with a cynical eye and it makes no sense. Yes, drive 300 miles with a sick child. Staying in a farmhouse in Durham is nicer than staying in London.
Eyesight problems? A test drive is indicated, Instead of driving 15 miles down the motorway towards London as a test, with the option of coming back, you drive sideways where it's much prettier. That in itself is an insult to people's intelligence.. .
And you have to stop so she can get out. She's feeling sick. But doesn't vomit.
The role of Apo E alleles in Alzheimers is explained well here for a lay audience.
https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/alzheimers-disease-genetics-fact-sheet
The rich were fine with austerity, which Boris has ended, they are less fine with Brexit and tighter immigration controls from Boris and anti globalisation rhetoric from Trump
I don't think it stupidity, more an example of mendacity.
The only mention that Brexit gets now it's done is in relation to the post Brexit developments like us being tied to shitty US imports. "That's not the Brexit we voted for" was a clear theme of popular comments on the Mail. If the likes of HYUFD keep fighting the "we need to get Brexit done" war when most normals know it is already done whilst they're not happy about what's been done since, that lingering identity with Johnson's Tories already under massive pressure from Cumgate will fall away.
They identified with Johnson's Tories to get Brexit done. He delivered. We left. It's done. Having changed identity once what makes you so insistent they won't change back if their Brexit turns to shit and the prosperous future they wanted is what away by an arrogant fool breaking the rules and taking their jobs and their lives away?
The Tories still have a poll lead under Boris
Personally, I think he realised this on day one, and just doesn't give a sh1t. The only thing of interest to Mr Cummings throughout is the damage his stand is doing to himself, and ensuring it stops short of him having to go.
Seems clear.
Some European countries like Italy, Poland and Greece are just as religious as the US if not more so
Both countries have managed to bring the pandemic under control and are in talks over an agreement that would allow flights between the two to resume before normal International flights would be possible.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Wednesday said a daft blueprint on safe travel between the neighbours would be presented to the two governments in early June.
America, has via the States of the Confederacy, and subsequent migrations from there a much larger population with a pre Enlightenment world view, more akin to the Boers of South Africa.
Those cultural differences between the Southern White mindset and the more diverse ethnic populations from late 19th Century mainland Europe, and more recently from Asia and Latin America, as well as the earlier New England and Mid Atlantic States are still critical in understanding the US Culture wars.
I said Anglosphere for a reason