This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
I bloody well hope so. You think otherwise?
A lot of them are going to find themselves on the dole, without generous financial support from the government. Many will find that the cuts in their wages they've already taken start to bite much more when they're commuting back to work.
All of us will find that pre-lockdown life does not return as it was before because shops, restaurants, pubs and cafes are permanently shut.
The Covid-19 holiday at home will be over and there will be bills to pay. The reality of a lot of people's lives is likely to get substantially worse from here on.
Oh sure - got all that - loads of economic losers - furlough has given a false sense of security - I thought you were making a more general observation.
My concern is also with the younger generation. Is university worth it? Lack of job opportunities. Debt on the next generation (and probably generation after that). The reality hasn`t dawned yet for many. I was chatting to a friend yesterday, she asked "when do you think things will be back to normal again?". I think she was expecting me to say "by the Autumn" or something. I said "never".
The more general observation is that life is going to get worse in most tangible ways for many, perhaps most people. How much more general do you want me to be?
And that’s before the likely economic shock of a No Deal exit from the transition period next January ........
Oh get a grip.
Brexit is drowned out by the changing landscape and screaming about it just simple ignores the fact that world has gone through a seismic shift and none of the assumptions people made two years ago hold up. Oil price on the floor. China US warming up daily, globalisation in reverse.
The Brexit arguments are all dead, we are walking in to a new world and need to get our heads around it.
We are, but that doesn't make it irrelevant. Nissan's Sunderland factory, for example; it's going to survive, but what's in question is how much it might grow:
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13404464 ...Under the new working relationship, Nissan could take the lead in Europe on crossover sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), while operating as a “follower” in commercial vans and small city cars, using versions produced by Renault, the sources said.
Nissan’s factory in Sunderland in the United Kingdom is of particular importance, they said.
Renault and Nissan are planning to turn the assembly plant into a hub for SUVs such as Nissan’s Qashqai and Juke, and potentially their Renault counterparts, the Kadjar and Captur. The companies are working on the plans, though it’s not clear when a final decision will be made, the sources said.
Whether Renault vehicles could be built profitably at the plant is unclear, given the uncertainty over tariffs as Britain leaves the European Union, according to one of the sources.
“It should be a pure economic transaction, but it’s also likely a political decision, too,” he said...
And what ?
Renault is closing 4 of its plants in France - that's the car industry. Nissan Sunderland remains the most productive plant in Europe. Renault and Nissan are steadily growing apart and will probably split. WTO tariffs are 10% which is less than the exchange rate movement over the last 4 years.
You state this as if it is somehow significant, this happens all the time in the automotive sector.
In all seriousness, I have been to Nandos. Its fine for what it is. Better than lots of chain restaurants, but in general I find basically all the major high street chains pretty underwhelming and over-priced for what you are getting.
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
I bloody well hope so. You think otherwise?
A lot of them are going to find themselves on the dole, without generous financial support from the government. Many will find that the cuts in their wages they've already taken start to bite much more when they're commuting back to work.
All of us will find that pre-lockdown life does not return as it was before because shops, restaurants, pubs and cafes are permanently shut.
The Covid-19 holiday at home will be over and there will be bills to pay. The reality of a lot of people's lives is likely to get substantially worse from here on.
Oh sure - got all that - loads of economic losers - furlough has given a false sense of security - I thought you were making a more general observation.
My concern is also with the younger generation. Is university worth it? Lack of job opportunities. Debt on the next generation (and probably generation after that). The reality hasn`t dawned yet for many. I was chatting to a friend yesterday, she asked "when do you think things will be back to normal again?". I think she was expecting me to say "by the Autumn" or something. I said "never".
The more general observation is that life is going to get worse in most tangible ways for many, perhaps most people. How much more general do you want me to be?
And that’s before the likely economic shock of a No Deal exit from the transition period next January ........
Oh get a grip.
Brexit is drowned out by the changing landscape and screaming about it just simple ignores the fact that world has gone through a seismic shift and none of the assumptions people made two years ago hold up. Oil price on the floor. China US warming up daily, globalisation in reverse.
The Brexit arguments are all dead, we are walking in to a new world and need to get our heads around it.
I’m not screaming about it. You are. I am simply pointing out what is very likely going to happen in just over 6 months. It will be the new world - the better world that supporters like you promised.
If it isn’t it could cause additional economic harm on top of the economic harm caused by this virus. That is worth noting, even if you don’t like this being pointed out.
If I recall correctly I consistently argued Brexit wouldn't make that much difference and it would be something from left field which would have the biggest effect on the economy...
Kudos for that.
But did you really have to arrange all this just to prove your point ?
The main point of interest is that it was the first substantive Inner House appeal to be dealt with remotely.
David, will that make any difference to the cost.
Well the expenses of the appeal will have been pretty chunky, probably another £25-30k to be paid to the other side in addition to similar costs for himself.
We are soon going to be back the same old, same old no-deal vs extension...
Michel Barnier has written a letter replying to a group of SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green, and Alliance Members of Parliament confirming that the EU is open to extending the transition period, although states that an extension must be agreed before 1 July
Except now the Tories have a majority of 80 as opposed to last year when they had no majority at all there is little chance of further extension passing
Mr Cummings would like to thank Mr Barnier for
1. Moving the story on
and
2. Giving the Conservatives the perfect platform on which to reunite.
We are soon going to be back the same old, same old no-deal vs extension...
Michel Barnier has written a letter replying to a group of SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green, and Alliance Members of Parliament confirming that the EU is open to extending the transition period, although states that an extension must be agreed before 1 July
He's replying to a letter from them, as the first sentence makes clear. What do you expect him to do, say 'I'm not going to answer you load of powerless plebs'?
Christ alive, no wonder Weston-Super-Mare hospital had to close, testing on asymptotic staff came back with 40% have it.
I am unsure of the reliability of testing on asymptomatic people. As an example I deliver food for a 85 year old chap I know from the local bookies. He is a lovely old fella, I speak to him every day. I know for a fact that he has not been out of his flat for 8 weeks as he has been awaiting a operation in hospital. At the weekend a nurse visited and tested him for Covid 19 as part of his pre-op. It came back positive. He has no symptoms and has had no contact with anyone for 8 weeks. His operation is now delayed.
We are soon going to be back the same old, same old no-deal vs extension...
Michel Barnier has written a letter replying to a group of SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green, and Alliance Members of Parliament confirming that the EU is open to extending the transition period, although states that an extension must be agreed before 1 July
He's replying to a letter from them, as the first sentence makes clear. What do you expect him to do, say 'I'm not going to answer you load of powerless plebs'?
We are soon going to be back the same old, same old no-deal vs extension...
Michel Barnier has written a letter replying to a group of SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green, and Alliance Members of Parliament confirming that the EU is open to extending the transition period, although states that an extension must be agreed before 1 July
Except now the Tories have a majority of 80 as opposed to last year when they had no majority at all there is little chance of further extension passing
Mr Cummings would like to thank Mr Barnier for
1. Moving the story on
and
2. Giving the Conservatives the perfect platform on which to reunite.
I think the sight of the EU saddling all countries with this massive combined debt probably helps too. I think the mindset of a lot of Tory MPs will see that and think we can't get dragged into that scheme.
IMO, they are falling into the trap of CNN / NYT / WP / MSNBC does with Trump. Their hatred of the man leads to them publishing inaccuracies and it gives Trump an out (but in Trump's case he can't help himself but to jump straight back into the shit). It is what Bad Al used to use all the time to get New Labour out of issues.
Completely unforced error. If the first sentence had been a question, not a statement "Did Dominic Cummings break the rules? The country thinks so, but the government does not.." it would have been entirely fine. As it is its a major mis-step.
Alan Partidge writes fondly of them in his biography so I assume they are of full of fucking awful people who drive Vauxhall Insignias and read the Daily Express.
Eventually, the bigger story of the Cummings episode is how fucked the BBC are going to be as a result of the way they have played it.
Remember, Beeb: "dig two graves".....
Indeed. Also Emerson: 'When you strike the king, you must kill him.'
'Cos if you don't...
All these metaphors: regicide, assassination, feeding frenzy, getting their man, taking their scalp. This misses two points. First, news organizations report news, all the time, and "news" is ultimately defined as what their audience considers to be news, cos otherwise they would lose their readership. Blaming the press is like warmist dweebs campaigning against investment in BP while pretending not to realise that their consumption of BP's products keeps BP in business.
Secondly, the story is that a conceited creep is more conceited, and much less clever, than appeared at first sight. The big swinging dick bloodshed metaphors lend it a dignity it just does not deserve.
This entire episode is a trial of strength (oops, another metaphor!) to determine who wields the real power in Britain - the elected government, or the unelected media. quapropter res iam redit ad triarios.
Colourful metaphors are indeed inadequate to express the magnitude of what is at stake.
the elected government, or an unelected self-regarding weirdo who wears his clothes the wrong way out.
I would doctor your text and do the ftfy thing, but I am better than that.
By "relaxation" do you mean "abandonment of restrictions entirely" or do you mean "targeted partial relaxations in some areas while maximising social distancing"?
I am not aware of any country that has returned to normal, and I am not sure that is in the power of the state to do anyway.
However I did expect that relaxation would lead to a visible up-tick in infection rates (and that may be a worthwhile trade-off). The graphs that I have seen however appear to be heading downwards still.
That I find surprising. Do you not?
No. I've seen a slowing in the downwards slope, which is what I'd expect.
Stage 1 is the maximum reduction of R. Firstly, we need to slow and reverse the death rate as rapidly as possible, secondly we don't know enough to know what is and isn't the best way of doing that, thirdly we need simple messages and a major change in behaviour. And fourthly, as my first Flight Sergeant said during Initial Officer Training at Cranwell: "When you go in hard, you can successfully relax a bit. Go in soft, and you can never go harder than that."
Stage 2 is just keeping R below 1. The death rate has already dropped a long way, we now know more over what works best and what is less needed (eg the outside activities thing and yes, you knew I was going to say it, the low hanging fruit), the people are more ready to hear nuanced messages, and you can relax a bit and people will still follow it.
Moving to Stage 2 won't give an uptick in infections unless you get it wrong and R goes over 1. Bear in mind that - compared to normal life - the "relaxed" conditions are still extraordinarily restrictive.
I was prepared for a small uptick, but hopeful it would keep trending gently downwards. There was plenty of scope for that to happen as long as people were sensible.
You may have seen that I'm calling for (very controlled) relaxation of pub and restaurant gardens. That's not because I think loads of people are suddenly immune, but because I think there's scope for that while keeping R below 1.
This seems an opportune moment to quote myself from the distant reaches of ... last night:
'The Mail polling looks like the nadir of this episode - from now on as we come out of lockdown there will be a correction as the red mist lifts and people see the reality of their lives improving.'
Rage is exhausting, and time brings perspective.
You think the reality of people's lives is going to start improving? Interesting take.
I bloody well hope so. You think otherwise?
A lot of them are going to find themselves on the dole, without generous financial support from the government. Many will find that the cuts in their wages they've already taken start to bite much more when they're commuting back to work.
All of us will find that pre-lockdown life does not return as it was before because shops, restaurants, pubs and cafes are permanently shut.
The Covid-19 holiday at home will be over and there will be bills to pay. The reality of a lot of people's lives is likely to get substantially worse from here on.
Oh sure - got all that - loads of economic losers - furlough has given a false sense of security - I thought you were making a more general observation.
My concern is also with the younger generation. Is university worth it? Lack of job opportunities. Debt on the next generation (and probably generation after that). The reality hasn`t dawned yet for many. I was chatting to a friend yesterday, she asked "when do you think things will be back to normal again?". I think she was expecting me to say "by the Autumn" or something. I said "never".
You're just being morbid. In my view the talk of economic Armageddon has been ludicrously over egged. My own employer, for example, has seen a perfectly reasonable turnover during the last couple of months, and they're rapidly getting people back from furlough. And this is not in an industry thought to be system critical to the human race.
Our business has done well - in the next couple of weeks we should bill a further 15% of our annual budget.
By "relaxation" do you mean "abandonment of restrictions entirely" or do you mean "targeted partial relaxations in some areas while maximising social distancing"?
I am not aware of any country that has returned to normal, and I am not sure that is in the power of the state to do anyway.
However I did expect that relaxation would lead to a visible up-tick in infection rates (and that may be a worthwhile trade-off). The graphs that I have seen however appear to be heading downwards still.
There was a peak in Iran at day 40 which sharply declined by day 70. Restrictions were relaxed, new cases rocketed and by day 90 there was a second slightly smaller peak. Now a week later cases are going down again. (Day 1 is 21/2/2020.) Deaths have NOT shown a second peak and have been continuously declining. Abandonment of restrictions does not mean the end of social distancing as this is often a personal choice. Conclusions about herd immunity are speculation as we are still too early in the epidemic (IMO) to draw such conclusions. My guess is that Iran will have herd immunity by 2021. The UK could be 50-100% of the way to herd immunity, but it will take ages before we know this.
Eventually, the bigger story of the Cummings episode is how fucked the BBC are going to be as a result of the way they have played it.
Remember, Beeb: "dig two graves".....
Indeed. Also Emerson: 'When you strike the king, you must kill him.'
'Cos if you don't...
All these metaphors: regicide, assassination, feeding frenzy, getting their man, taking their scalp. This misses two points. First, news organizations report news, all the time, and "news" is ultimately defined as what their audience considers to be news, cos otherwise they would lose their readership. Blaming the press is like warmist dweebs campaigning against investment in BP while pretending not to realise that their consumption of BP's products keeps BP in business.
Secondly, the story is that a conceited creep is more conceited, and much less clever, than appeared at first sight. The big swinging dick bloodshed metaphors lend it a dignity it just does not deserve.
This entire episode is a trial of strength (oops, another metaphor!) to determine who wields the real power in Britain - the elected government, or the unelected media. quapropter res iam redit ad triarios.
Colourful metaphors are indeed inadequate to express the magnitude of what is at stake.
the elected government, or an unelected self-regarding weirdo who wears his clothes the wrong way out.
I would doctor your text and do the ftfy thing, but I am better than that.
I'm pretty sure that the appointee of the elected government is covered by their mandate - how else would any appointee have the authority to do anything at all, under any government? Otherwise, good point.
We are soon going to be back the same old, same old no-deal vs extension...
Michel Barnier has written a letter replying to a group of SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green, and Alliance Members of Parliament confirming that the EU is open to extending the transition period, although states that an extension must be agreed before 1 July
They wrote to him saying “we support an extension would you consider it” and he replied “yes”.
Now in my view it was inappropriate for them to write and inappropriate for him to reply. Supranational organisations should only deal with governments.
Because a few MPs are making face-saving statements to their constituents but without daring to challenge the Prime Minister directly?
It's called politics. They get to signal their virtue, Boris gets to do what he likes. Win-win.
Will he withdraw his own whip? The message we get from this government whip is that the direction of the ogvernment is open to interpretation. This strikes at the heart of what it means to govern and to be governed.
Remember the podium said:
"Stay at home, Protect the NHS, Save lives".
It didn't say: "Stay at home; if you can't make an excuse not too, Protect the NHS; if you have the time, Save lives; unless they are strangers in which case put them at risk by crossing the entire country when infected or driving when you think you're blind".
Why ever listen to the government again on any subject?
Because a few MPs are making face-saving statements to their constituents but without daring to challenge the Prime Minister directly?
It's called politics. They get to signal their virtue, Boris gets to do what he likes. Win-win.
Will he withdraw his own whip? The message we get from this government whip is that the direction of the ogvernment is open to interpretation. This strikes at the heart of what it means to govern and to be governed.
Remember the podium said:
"Stay at home, Protect the NHS, Save lives".
It didn't say: "Stay at home; if you can't make an excuse not too, Protect the NHS; if you have the time, Save lives; unless they are strangers in which case put them at risk by crossing the entire country when infected or driving when you think you're blind".
Why ever listen to the government again on any subject?
Listen to them or don't - if people wish to cut off their nose to spite their face, well, it's a free country.
They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.
'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said. Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.
“People were petrified,” one of the employees said.
For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'
'...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy. But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands. “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
Usual Tory tax dodgers maximising profits at expense of people's granny, lies right at Boris's door.
Oversight of care homes is a devolved matter malc.
Are you making the case for more government interference in the running of honest, upstanding private businesses? Well done!
Are you making the case that Care Homes are honest upstanding private businesses?
Yes by and large.
Probably - but there have been several examples of absentee owners having an atrocious outbreak - Skye and Man spring to mind. In the latter one home accounted for 20 of the islands 24 cases. The Manx government shut it down. The Sandbank resident owners were miffed.
There are exceptions in any industry but I have to believe that anyone who goes into care does so because they care about it. Like teaching, nursing etc
Regarding absentee owners that can happen in any sector too. So long as they have passionate and good managers that should be fine. It's the managers who matter more most likely than the owners, besides owner/managers.
This report on the Skye home makes depressing reading:
I've not read it but don't judge a sector by a bad apple. People literally go into care to care for others, it's a noble motive.
A bad school or bad teachers wouldn't make you condemn the entire education sector would it?
If it was in Scotland you can bet it would. You notice she has yet to produce anything on English care homes, this is just her hatred for anything SNP/Scottish.
Hello, Malky. I notice that only a percentage figure for care home deaths/all deaths in Scotland is offered on PB. Not a more meaningful comparison such as no of care home deaths per 1M population (or of population over 70, for instance). It may well be that the Scottish death rate is lower than in England except for care homes - or perhaps even for them as well. THere's a fair bit of space for that as the Travelling Tabby website suggests overall to date 424 dead/million in Scotland, 589/m for England (hasn't had the last week's data from NRS so far as I can see butt hat won't make much difference). To be honest, it's not a huge difference, and the differences in population distribution make it hard to compare the two meaningfully. But a lot of Scotland's population is as urbanised as anything outside London.
Alan Partidge writes fondly of them in his biography so I assume they are of full of fucking awful people who drive Vauxhall Insignias and read the Daily Express.
Alan is more a Daily Mail, Lynx deodorant and Lexus kind of guy.
Highly instructive and not just from the point of view of assessing the Cummings fiasco.
I had hitherto felt the question of the legality of his actions was unclear and best regarded as a grey area. The legal beagle was pretty clear and firm however that there were grounds for a charge (under 'Regulation 6') at least in respect of the Castle episode.
I guess it remains an open possibilty that he will be charged one day although if he is resigned, I don't suppose the plod would bother.
Eventually, the bigger story of the Cummings episode is how fucked the BBC are going to be as a result of the way they have played it.
Remember, Beeb: "dig two graves".....
Indeed. Also Emerson: 'When you strike the king, you must kill him.'
"Brexit educates the senses, calls into disrepute the political will, makes imperfect the unwritten constitution, brings Tories into such swift and close collision in critical moments that Leaver measures Remainer."
Comments
Renault is closing 4 of its plants in France - that's the car industry.
Nissan Sunderland remains the most productive plant in Europe.
Renault and Nissan are steadily growing apart and will probably split.
WTO tariffs are 10% which is less than the exchange rate movement over the last 4 years.
You state this as if it is somehow significant, this happens all the time in the automotive sector.
If not - then you have missed out.
Much frequented by Premiership footballers to get their protein hit.
https://order-order.com/2020/05/27/barnier-begs-opposition-parties-for-extension/
1. Moving the story on
and
2. Giving the Conservatives the perfect platform on which to reunite.
Of course being universally disliked could just mean that you are really really crap.
It's called politics. They get to signal their virtue, Boris gets to do what he likes. Win-win.
I would doctor your text and do the ftfy thing, but I am better than that.
Stage 1 is the maximum reduction of R. Firstly, we need to slow and reverse the death rate as rapidly as possible, secondly we don't know enough to know what is and isn't the best way of doing that, thirdly we need simple messages and a major change in behaviour. And fourthly, as my first Flight Sergeant said during Initial Officer Training at Cranwell: "When you go in hard, you can successfully relax a bit. Go in soft, and you can never go harder than that."
Stage 2 is just keeping R below 1. The death rate has already dropped a long way, we now know more over what works best and what is less needed (eg the outside activities thing and yes, you knew I was going to say it, the low hanging fruit), the people are more ready to hear nuanced messages, and you can relax a bit and people will still follow it.
Moving to Stage 2 won't give an uptick in infections unless you get it wrong and R goes over 1. Bear in mind that - compared to normal life - the "relaxed" conditions are still extraordinarily restrictive.
I was prepared for a small uptick, but hopeful it would keep trending gently downwards. There was plenty of scope for that to happen as long as people were sensible.
You may have seen that I'm calling for (very controlled) relaxation of pub and restaurant gardens. That's not because I think loads of people are suddenly immune, but because I think there's scope for that while keeping R below 1.
No.
There was a peak in Iran at day 40 which sharply declined by day 70. Restrictions were relaxed, new cases rocketed and by day 90 there was a second slightly smaller peak. Now a week later cases are going down again. (Day 1 is 21/2/2020.) Deaths have NOT shown a second peak and have been continuously declining. Abandonment of restrictions does not mean the end of social distancing as this is often a personal choice. Conclusions about herd immunity are speculation as we are still too early in the epidemic (IMO) to draw such conclusions. My guess is that Iran will have herd immunity by 2021. The UK could be 50-100% of the way to herd immunity, but it will take ages before we know this.
Now in my view it was inappropriate for them to write and inappropriate for him to reply. Supranational organisations should only deal with governments.
The Barnier story is slightly weird. There's very little chance of it going ahead.
But... it depends how pissed off Conservative backbenchers are.
"Axe Cummings or we give a two year extension" could be the threat. If they're angry enough.
Remember the podium said:
"Stay at home,
Protect the NHS,
Save lives".
It didn't say:
"Stay at home; if you can't make an excuse not too,
Protect the NHS; if you have the time,
Save lives; unless they are strangers in which case put them at risk by crossing the entire country when infected or driving when you think you're blind".
Why ever listen to the government again on any subject?
Where is it getting this date from?
I had hitherto felt the question of the legality of his actions was unclear and best regarded as a grey area. The legal beagle was pretty clear and firm however that there were grounds for a charge (under 'Regulation 6') at least in respect of the Castle episode.
I guess it remains an open possibilty that he will be charged one day although if he is resigned, I don't suppose the plod would bother.