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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the Cummings lockdown saga now in its seventh day some bi

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,051
    DougSeal said:

    I hate myself for constantly feeling compelled to counter what he writes.
    He obviously works for CHQ or is not working
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Fishing said:

    Somebody told me that Adelaide is the driest city in the driest state on the driest inhabited continent in the world.

    I have to say, it struck me as a particularly dull town both times I visited, but I didn't know anybody there, so probably didn't get the best out of it. But my memory is of walking round endless blocks of the city looking for something interesting to do.

    And I hear it really comes alive for the festival.
    Bizarrely it rained on the day I visited. There was quite an interesting museum and art gallery if I recall correctly
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    I'll take it to a forum where several posters have indeed made both cases simultaneously, namely ... this one! :wink:
    Please stop winking at me. I'm not interested and have been married for 14 years.
  • You need to get over Brexit mate. It’s embarrassing. We’re going to leave on WTO terms with no extension. I’ve accepted it, why haven’t you?
    I for one look forward very much to it! To quote a much wiser man "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    edited May 2020
    Still, Dom has broken America (as if it needs any more breaking). If BJ ever finds his balls, I'm sure there'll be roles aplenty in Trump's campaign even for a grifter with eyesight problems.

    https://twitter.com/kwr66/status/1265583012630138880?s=20
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    If you still see it totally in those terms you are just highlighting your political ineptitude. The papers have been reporting it in the way they have because of the reaction of their readers. Go look at comments on Mail online.

    I've looked at the comments on the latest Mail article and they're very positive towards Cummings and very anti media. So maybe the opinion of their readers have changed or maybe as has been stated people are growing tired of a story that interests the media a lot more than it interests a lot of the public.

    Big story yes, 6 days in the news nope. Likewise Telegraph readers very positive towards Dom staying on their comments. As I have argued before the chance for a scalp has more likely than not passed. Pippa Crear didn't quite do enough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,051

    The problem is not out in the country @DavidL - the problem is that govt and media
    seem to be paralysed like a rabbit in the headlights. The Cummings Scandal seems to causing huge amount of diversion at Cabinet and PM level.

    The thousands of job losses will catch the Media's attention when they figure out that they can use it as another stick with which to beat the hapless Boris.

    And next month we have significant Brexit issues to hurl into the mix too. It is evolving into a Perfect Storm of political poop.

    Lucky old Boris. He wanted the glory of being in charge....
    Still a few Tories think it is perfectly acceptable to treat the public like morons , crap all over them and be able to ask they still give them 100% support to crap on them again.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,155

    https://twitter.com/FORDHAM68/status/1265521668413444099/photo/1

    Be interesting to see what Starmer has to say about this

    "I’d been feeling ropey for two weeks when I went into hospital on 2 April, ever since I’d come back up to Manchester from Westminster."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-i-feel-a-tremendous-sense-of-humility-mp-tony-lloyd-on-how-nhs-saved-his-life

    He came down with symptoms after returning to Manchester, before the general lockdown was imposed and was not expecting to fall ill, unlike Cummings, or already ill.

    Pathetic attempt at a smear.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220

    For me, the real game changer could be the twenty-minute test. If it can be made self-contained and cheap and readily available AND numbers of infection are low at the time, the amount of possibilities it unlocks are astonishing.

    Spit into this tube of gunk and put it in boiling water for twenty minutes and see if it changes colour. If not, you're clear; if it does, go and self-isolate for two weeks (not necessarily in Durham).

    Visit your old Mum, do this and wait at the front door for twenty minutes. If all are clear; go in and don't worry about social distancing in that house.

    Go to a sporting event or artistic event or theatre - set this up so it can be done outside and wait - everyone must pass to be allowed inside social distancing. Logistically challenging, but could be done.

    Make it a part of the departure process to get on a plane; everyone must pass and if they are, no problem.

    If you have it outside a restaurant, either stick to social distancing in the outside garden, or do this and wait for twenty minutes and if everyone passes, in you go and don't worry about social distancing.

    Hell, if we get this and it's very common, we could hunt down and kill off the virus.

    I wonder if in the medium term we could go further and in 5 years time the same process could be sped up to say 3 minutes, and used to get rid of most colds and flus.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,051
    He didn't half waste a lot of other people's money on that for sure.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    The right to bear arms, eh? What this country really needs is overweight incels with assault rifles turning up at places of government.

    If you don't trust your fellow citizens with a rifle, why do you trust them with a car or a voting slip?

    I remember a 'classical liberal' that used to post on here who claimed that UK gun laws actually made us more unsafe than the USA and got very excited at the idea of 3D printed guns. He certainly added to the entertainment value of the place.

    3d printed guns are mostly about trolling gun grabbers, they are crap pieces of engineering and you cannot 3D print ammunition (which is the difficult bit).

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    malcolmg said:

    Still a few Tories think it is perfectly acceptable to treat the public like morons , crap all over them and be able to ask they still give them 100% support to crap on them again.
    The brighter tories have suddenly fouind they have other things than pb to occupy their time, or their internet is playing up...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487
    @BluestBlue - As you know I was quite impressed by DCs press conference. I said so on here and you liked my comment. However I also said I was concerned that I also might be gullible and there are questions I would like answered. Here are 3:

    a) Why didn't his wife drive home? He said she recovered quicker than him. Why?

    b) Why wasn't a car and driver arranged to bring him home if there were concerns? My wife is considerably less important that DC, but when she broke her wrist at a conference a car and driver was organised to bring her home and we recovered the car later (from Wales to Surrey)

    c) Why did DC amend his old blog post on the day he returned and why did he refer to it at the press session. Even if this has nothing to do with the event why is he manipulating something to make it look like he forecasted something (dishonestly) and why for goodness sake on the day he returned when he was supposedly busy and worried about work and if he did want to do it he could have done it anytime he choose?

    It is c) that concerns me most as this is very odd indeed. It might be completely unrelated, but even if it is it is a very odd thing to do, unless you reference the change. It is altering history to make it look like you predicted something. And the timing is really, really odd.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    IshmaelZ said:

    The brighter tories have suddenly fouind they have other things than pb to occupy their time, or their internet is playing up...
    are there any bright people who aren't Tories? asking for a PB friend :wink:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    fox327 said:

    There is also a problem in the country. I couldn't get through to the managing agent, an estate agency, of my accommodation recently on the emergency number. Estate agents working from home are often not working at all. I have received my 6 month electricity bill. It is an estimated bill as meter readers are not working. It is time for people to write to their MPs to ask when the country is going back to work.

    The point of the Cummings story is to distract attention from the continuing shutdown. That is all. Shutdown supporters seem to back down when it comes to the crunch. Action is not their thing. The government should continue getting the country back to normal. The real question is how long will this take?
    :+1:

    There are going to be a whole slew of foul-ups like this. TBH, even if Cummings was gone (or the scandal was gone), we are making the assumption that the Govt would be up to the job.

    People hailed the furlough as a near-miracle saving the economy. I am becoming less than sure about that. It might very will be the thing that destroys the economy because too many people like being paid to sit at home.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,368
    Socky said:

    If you don't trust your fellow citizens with a rifle, why do you trust them with a car or a voting slip?
    The last few days have shown Gove and Cummings shouldn’t be trusted with a car.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Completely agree with both points.
    Allowing outside venues for pubs and restaurants and meeting up under strict guidelines would make people far happier with continuing social distancing, and looks to be significantly safer than small indoor shops.
    One sensible step might be a relaxation of licensing laws, that would allow an existing licensee to set up a temporary bar in a nearby park, field or car park, using a van, tent or market stall structure. Anyone who’s walked up the hill from Twickenham station to the stadium on a match day will know what I mean ;)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Geographically it maybe separated only by the English channel, culturally it is closer to the Anglosphere
    Britain is not Europe.

    Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

    Napoleon is not a pig.

    Water is not wet.

    The Pope is not a Catholic.

    Tories are not dunderheids.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724
    Brom said:

    I've looked at the comments on the latest Mail article and they're very positive towards Cummings and very anti media. So maybe the opinion of their readers have changed or maybe as has been stated people are growing tired of a story that interests the media a lot more than it interests a lot of the public.

    Big story yes, 6 days in the news nope. Likewise Telegraph readers very positive towards Dom staying on their comments. As I have argued before the chance for a scalp has more likely than not passed. Pippa Crear didn't quite do enough.
    Are you sure you're reading the same Mail Online as I am?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    MaxPB said:

    No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.

    As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
    I don't underestimate Keir at all. He's definitely swinging to the centre on political culture, and making superficial noises about a similar swing on some cultural issues. Though he hasn't made any significant shift on the economy, and I don't ultimately believe he will.

    He's doing this intelligently so far, but there are pitfalls even for him.

    First, Labour politics is a crusade of moral fervour and 'passion' for many activists and voters - if you can't get the thrill of an extreme platform and hating the Tories openly, then a lot of the fun goes out of politics for these people, and they may despise him as much they did Miliband for being milquetoast.

    Second - although this is more a pitfall for Labour values than its electoral prospects - if he becomes Blair then he _deserves_ to beat the Tories and win power. Many Conservatives will genuinely not be afraid to vote for him, nor will Lib Dems and others. A Labour Party that's not dangerous would be a massive win for the country.

    I'm not yet convinced he'll get there, wish to get there, or be allowed to get there. But we'll see.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    TGOHF666 said:

    Something forensic ?
    I suppose the fact that Turning Point UK have already deleted this tweet, presumably because it's libellous, would not persuade you to withdraw the smear?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,716
    MaxPB said:

    No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.

    As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
    I am a Labour Party member and my very strong sense is that you are right. The "project" - if we can term it that - is over. I happen not to be overjoyed about this if it leads, as I fear it will, to a certain blandness on policy and a reluctance to push the equality agenda, but of course I will still be voting Labour. So, retain me and my ilk, plus win a ton of floaters and apoliticals - with the obvious caveat of the next election being yonks away, this IMO spells PM Starmer. This slightly dull but highly competent and palpably decent man is going to get his picture on the Downing St staircase. The big question is, will he be next to Boris Johnson or will there be another picture hanging there between them?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    HYUFD said:

    Britain is not Europe, otherwise it would not have voted for Brexit.

    Corollary: Scotland is not Britain, otherwise it would have voted for Brexit.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Is this a PR balls-up of rare proportions? Yes. But you're making a lot of my case for me. In 4 years, are people who hate identity politics suddenly going to love it because of Dominic Cummings? Are they suddenly going to like sky-high taxes and socialism because of Cummings? Mass immigration because of Cummings? Political correctness because of Cummings? No, they're not.

    It is not Cummings that is the issue. Yes, people will remember him as a prat who wrote the rules and then broke them, but the real damage here is primarily to Boris who looks weaker and weaker as each day goes by. That cartoon of Boris in distress because Cummings has been cordoned off from him captures the issue very nicely.

    The secondary damage is to the Cabinet, whose members look supine, but there is also the contrast effect where the whole mess makes SKS look good as long as no one trips up on the Labour side.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,537
    DougSeal said:

    Are you sure you're reading the same Mail Online as I am?
    Are not the Mail and the Mail Online run separately?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    Are not the Mail and the Mail Online run separately?
    They are but I am not aware of two separate websites.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Are not the Mail and the Mail Online run separately?
    Schrodinger's Mail. Good and bad simultaneously ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    edited May 2020
    Socky said:

    If you don't trust your fellow citizens with a rifle, why do you trust them with a car or a voting slip?

    Who said anything about trusting my fellow citizens? :)

    In general I'd say my highest level of distrust would be about my fellow citizens using stuff that's designed to kill things as opposed to stuff that isn't.
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    People hailed the furlough as a near-miracle saving the economy. I am becoming less than sure about that. It might very will be the thing that destroys the economy because too many people like being paid to sit at home.

    Citizens' income a non-starter then?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    MaxPB said:

    Everyone realises Dom is staying, it's why I quit the party on Saturday.

    Wow :open_mouth:

  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    malcolmg said:



    Still a few Tories think it is perfectly acceptable to treat the public like morons , crap all over them and be able to ask they still give them 100% support to crap on them again.

    Well, it mostly works.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Socky said:

    Citizens' income a non-starter then?
    Quite possibly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220
    kjh said:

    @BluestBlue - As you know I was quite impressed by DCs press conference. I said so on here and you liked my comment. However I also said I was concerned that I also might be gullible and there are questions I would like answered. Here are 3:

    a) Why didn't his wife drive home? He said she recovered quicker than him. Why?

    b) Why wasn't a car and driver arranged to bring him home if there were concerns? My wife is considerably less important that DC, but when she broke her wrist at a conference a car and driver was organised to bring her home and we recovered the car later (from Wales to Surrey)

    c) Why did DC amend his old blog post on the day he returned and why did he refer to it at the press session. Even if this has nothing to do with the event why is he manipulating something to make it look like he forecasted something (dishonestly) and why for goodness sake on the day he returned when he was supposedly busy and worried about work and if he did want to do it he could have done it anytime he choose?

    It is c) that concerns me most as this is very odd indeed. It might be completely unrelated, but even if it is it is a very odd thing to do, unless you reference the change. It is altering history to make it look like you predicted something. And the timing is really, really odd.

    He is post truth - there is nothing wrong with reshaping reality and truth in the cause of the greater good.

    The greater good just happens to be him making the decisions for the country. So lying about predicting the crisis, or why he did whatever is completely justified in his mind.

    Once you understand that there is nothing odd about it at all. The question is are those who are aligned to his goals willing to put up with it? And the answer is yes, enough are.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    If you still see it totally in those terms you are just highlighting your political ineptitude. The papers have been reporting it in the way they have because of the reaction of their readers. Go look at comments on Mail online.

    Mike, I've made this point before, but no Conservative government ever does or should govern in accordance with the top comments in the Daily Mail. Here are some things that would have happened if we had:

    1. Warships in the Channel to machine-gun migrant boats.
    2. Treason charges for those who disagreed with the result of the EE Referendum.
    3. The death penalty for loitering.

    OK, I made the last one up. But not the first two!

    Still want the Government to use the Daily Mail comments to make decisions?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DougSeal said:

    Please stop winking at me. I'm not interested and have been married for 14 years.
    Relax, this isn't that kind of chat room. Or at least I bloody well hope it isn't! :scream:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Corollary: Scotland is not Britain, otherwise it would have voted for Brexit.
    And Northern Ireland? ;)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    Who said anything about trusting my fellow citizens? :)

    In general I'd say my highest level of distrust would be about my fellow citizens using stuff that's designed to kill things as oppose to things that aren't.
    I am totally anti gun as is my wife. However over dinner a few weeks ago we both admitted to one another a secret desire to go to a gun range next time we are back in the States to see what it’s like and to blow off some steam. But I wouldn’t trust me with a gun, let alone anyone else.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I disagree @Richard_Nabavi - once you start playing those sorts of games, they always unravel and bite you on the bum.
    I wasn't being entirely serious!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220

    I don't underestimate Keir at all. He's definitely swinging to the centre on political culture, and making superficial noises about a similar swing on some cultural issues. Though he hasn't made any significant shift on the economy, and I don't ultimately believe he will.

    He's doing this intelligently so far, but there are pitfalls even for him.

    First, Labour politics is a crusade of moral fervour and 'passion' for many activists and voters - if you can't get the thrill of an extreme platform and hating the Tories openly, then a lot of the fun goes out of politics for these people, and they may despise him as much they did Miliband for being milquetoast.

    Second - although this is more a pitfall for Labour values than its electoral prospects - if he becomes Blair then he _deserves_ to beat the Tories and win power. Many Conservatives will genuinely not be afraid to vote for him, nor will Lib Dems and others. A Labour Party that's not dangerous would be a massive win for the country.

    I'm not yet convinced he'll get there, wish to get there, or be allowed to get there. But we'll see.
    Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220
    Socky said:

    Citizens' income a non-starter then?
    At £2500 yes!

    At £500, lets have the conversation.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
    Eh? I was just running a random input generator programme - did the results get posted on here by mistake? :wink:
  • SockySocky Posts: 404

    Who said anything about trusting my fellow citizens?

    The gun debate is a good way of finding out who really believes in democracy, and who is virtue signalling.

    In general I'd say my highest level of distrust would be about my fellow citizens using stuff that's designed to kill things as opposed to stuff that isn't.

    Most guns never kill anyone (unless paper targets get to self declare as people), cars and governments regulary commit slaughter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    DougSeal said:

    They are but I am not aware of two separate websites.
    There are 2 tiny preferences button that most people miss.

    Did you prefer Boris's letter supporting remaining in the EU

    Did you prefer Boris's letter supporting leaving the EU
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Brom said:

    are there any bright people who aren't Tories? asking for a PB friend :wink:
    Are there any tories who aren't bright people? would be a legitimate response to my post. You seem unable to detect, and refrain from committing, the fallacy of the undistributed middle. Yes to both questions btw.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Scottish Care Homes COVID has made the NYT - with Johnson getting the blame.....

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-nursing-homes.html
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,716

    Cheers Andy – yes, it's baffling why the government prefers to liberate markets (very busy and crowded) to pub beer gardens (much more easily managed).

    I hope they rethink this.
    Unfortunately I think pubs will be at the back of the queue. Why? Because alcohol is involved and the drinking culture here has a reputation of 'get smashed' (at which point you forget there even is a virus) rather than that more European thing of imbibing one or two in a painfully leisurely fashion, possibly with a nibble to line the stomach and keep the exuberance in check.
  • Betfair Sportsbook's odds on Cummings still being in his present position on Sunday, 1 June 2020 have shortened further to 1/3, the passage of time of course being a factor. The contrary bet is currently priced at 2/1.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,495
    .
    Cyclefree said:

    That is simply unrealistic. Margins are very tight in hospitality. You simply cannot reduce overheads just like that and some of the measures talked about will require more staff not fewer. Nor can you double your prices.

    1. If businesses are legally forced to operate in a manner which reduces their turnover to 20-30% of what it was before then they need to continue being supported or be given compensation, closed down and the owners can use that money to do something else entrepreneurial.

    2. IMO guidance should be given. Guidance - it should not be a legal requirement. And businesses should take reasonable steps - reasonable in the context of their business. It is reasonable to have hand gel available, tables cleaned down, paper towels instead of air dryers, decent ventilation etc but not reasonable to expect venues where their whole shtick is getting people together to force them apart. Social closeness is the point of such venues. Forcing them to do the opposite is to kill them.

    People should be advised but learn to take their own decisions about how they live.

    We really need a proper debate about whether we are willing to live in a world without all the venues and activities which bring people close. I tried to start one the other day with my header. It really is needed. Life without many of the cultural, artistic, sporting and socialising activities we know and love is not life. It is mere existence. And it harms people in very real ways, as my family know to their cost only too well.

    3. The government needs to work with the insurance industry to make the business interruption insurance policies business bought - expensively - real. Some burden-sharing between government, insurance companies and businesses is needed. But insurers have not treated their customers fairly. This has caused some anger and we need real action now not some ineffectual hand-wringing by the FCA in a few years time.
    I think one of the prime constraints on reopening is the failure to have a full track and trace infrastructure up and running.
    I simply don't believe the 'world beating by June 1st' nonsense - and in any event, a more proactive government could have had something up and running many weeks ago.

    Reopening comes with risks. I agree with the principle that people should make their own decisions about how they live - but those decisions have consequences for everyone else. Having a system in place to mitigate outbreaks goes a long way to reconciling the interests of the individual with those of the rest of society.

    And having a population willing to stay at home if they have a respiratory infection is perhaps just as important.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TGOHF666 said:
    Personally I was more hoping for the Gavroche and the Ledbury to reopen, but everyone to their own...
  • I leave for a bit and I see there's arguments about CCHQ staff working here.

    I have been saying this for days.

    Of course, I am Tony Blair.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,488
    I see Madeira is offering tourists tests on arrival. Why don't we do that, instead of quarantine?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately I think pubs will be at the back of the queue. Why? Because alcohol is involved and the drinking culture here has a reputation of 'get smashed' (at which point you forget there even is a virus) rather than that more European thing of imbibing one or two in a painfully leisurely fashion, possibly with a nibble to line the stomach and keep the exuberance in check.

    I think you are right about alcohol being seen as a risk factor, although it's not just a British thing - in Paris they had to hurriedly introduce regulations to stop people drinking alcohol as they sat by the Seine.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Personally I was more hoping for the Gavroche and the Ledbury to reopen, but everyone to their own...
    When the red wall fell, everything changed....

    Has Sir Keir heard of Nandos ? Probably thinks it was one of his leadership opponents - the one who kept prattling on about gender neutral toilets.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,495
    Socky said:

    The gun debate is a good way of finding out who really believes in democracy, and who is virtue signalling.
    Most guns never kill anyone (unless paper targets get to self declare as people), cars and governments regulary commit slaughter.
    The choice isn't guns or cars; it's guns or not.

    We had that debate, and decided not.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Betfair Sportsbook's odds on Cummings still being in his present position on Sunday, 1 June 2020 have shortened further to 1/3, the passage of time of course being a factor. The contrary bet is currently priced at 2/1.

    That's down to what I placed my bet at.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    The choice isn't guns or cars; it's guns or not.

    We had that debate, and decided not.
    We did democracy and everything.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,561
    kinabalu said:

    I am a Labour Party member and my very strong sense is that you are right. The "project" - if we can term it that - is over. I happen not to be overjoyed about this if it leads, as I fear it will, to a certain blandness on policy and a reluctance to push the equality agenda, but of course I will still be voting Labour. So, retain me and my ilk, plus win a ton of floaters and apoliticals - with the obvious caveat of the next election being yonks away, this IMO spells PM Starmer. This slightly dull but highly competent and palpably decent man is going to get his picture on the Downing St staircase. The big question is, will he be next to Boris Johnson or will there be another picture hanging there between them?
    His stance on the equality agenda could be a key to his success. I'd like him to be strong on pride for Labours history in liberalising the right to be different and not be penalised for it, firm that he will advance equality by legislating where needed, but also be clear that that should be done in a way that genuinely advances human dignity and that his support will not be forthcoming for measures that do not meet that test - and there are aspects of transgender and other campaigns at the more militant end that do not meet that test. He should also be clear that equality is for everyone - where egregious injustices are done against men or the WWC they should be seen for what they are, and neither diminished nor overegged because of who they are done to. Equal treatment for all inequalities based on how bad they are.

    For those who think Kier needs a clause 4 type battle, this is where it probably lies and being tough on militancy and playing the tough on PC gone mad part whilst doing lots on equality is something that could very much suit him personally.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,537
    TGOHF666 said:

    When the red wall fell, everything changed....

    Has Sir Keir heard of Nandos ? Probably thinks it was one of his leadership opponents - the one who kept prattling on about gender neutral toilets.

    Which we will now have! Won't we? Or have I got that wrong?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,817
    I don't mind if Americans want guns. Just don't ask me to feel appalled at the next lunatic slaughters children at their school desks incident. It happens time and time again with people reacting by voting in politicians who protect the rights of the lunatic over the children.

    I don't get it. Its almost incomprehensible to me. On a human level of course you grieve for the victims. But at a societal level? You get what you vote for, and they vote for slaughter of the innocents.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,716

    Calling BluestBlue - someone has logged on with your name and posted sensible and insightful non partisan analysis!
    Relatively speaking, yes. But note the message. Labour can win an election if they drop those pesky Labour values. That, to me, does not sound like somebody who wants to meet in the middle and kick a ball about. It sounds like somebody still very much in the trenches.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,007

    I leave for a bit and I see there's arguments about CCHQ staff working here.

    I have been saying this for days.

    Of course, I am Tony Blair.

    We have had all sorts of Labour party types on here. Who can forget IOS.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Move to the centre on social issues == be more transphobic
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242

    Scottish Care Homes COVID has made the NYT - with Johnson getting the blame.....

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-nursing-homes.html

    They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.

    'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said.
    Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.

    “People were petrified,” one of the employees said.

    For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'

    '...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy.
    But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands.
    “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
  • SockySocky Posts: 404
    Nigelb said:

    The choice isn't guns or cars; it's guns or not.

    People's irrational fears should not be a factor in legislation.

    For example: I suggest that there is better evidence for banning motorbikes than handguns.
    Nigelb said:

    We had that debate, and decided not.

    Put it to a referendum then, I would be happy to accept the result.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Fishing said:

    I see Madeira is offering tourists tests on arrival. Why don't we do that, instead of quarantine?

    I doubt the quarantine idea will last more than a fortnight in current guise.

    Will be your "civic duty" to stay home after a holiday - where possible. But not law.



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MaxPB said:

    No you're underestimating Kier. He's not Corbyn and he's not beholden to the insane left. I think he's captured all of the party machinery at last count so he's now in a position to tell the insane left to like it or lump it. As you can see in the last few days he's clearly taking that line with them.

    As I said, if Kier moves to the centre on social issues he has a shot at a Blair style swing and a working majority. If he doesn't then it's going to be a very tough race but I think he's still more likely to win if Boris is still there.
    K-E-I-R


    K


    E


    I


    R
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    Cyclefree said:

    That is simply unrealistic. Margins are very tight in hospitality. You simply cannot reduce overheads just like that and some of the measures talked about will require more staff not fewer. Nor can you double your prices.

    1. If businesses are legally forced to operate in a manner which reduces their turnover to 20-30% of what it was before then they need to continue being supported or be given compensation, closed down and the owners can use that money to do something else entrepreneurial.

    2. IMO guidance should be given. Guidance - it should not be a legal requirement. And businesses should take reasonable steps - reasonable in the context of their business. It is reasonable to have hand gel available, tables cleaned down, paper towels instead of air dryers, decent ventilation etc but not reasonable to expect venues where their whole shtick is getting people together to force them apart. Social closeness is the point of such venues. Forcing them to do the opposite is to kill them.

    People should be advised but learn to take their own decisions about how they live.

    We really need a proper debate about whether we are willing to live in a world without all the venues and activities which bring people close. I tried to start one the other day with my header. It really is needed. Life without many of the cultural, artistic, sporting and socialising activities we know and love is not life. It is mere existence. And it harms people in very real ways, as my family know to their cost only too well.

    3. The government needs to work with the insurance industry to make the business interruption insurance policies business bought - expensively - real. Some burden-sharing between government, insurance companies and businesses is needed. But insurers have not treated their customers fairly. This has caused some anger and we need real action now not some ineffectual hand-wringing by the FCA in a few years time.
    That`s an excellent post Cyclefree. You say: "IMO guidance should be given. Guidance - it should not be a legal requirement". Personally, I`d go further and say that it should be made clear that employers cannot be held liable for virus infections which are a risk to us all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    Socky said:

    People's irrational fears should not be a factor in legislation.

    For example: I suggest that there is better evidence for banning motorbikes than handguns. Put it to a referendum then, I would be happy to accept the result.
    It may have passed you by, but referendums need a lot of widespread public support and government willpower before they take place in this country. You could always start a petition..
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,080
    Alistair said:

    That's down to what I placed my bet at.
    You can head over to Shadsy for a press-up.

    Ladbrokes: 13/8 go, 4/9 stay
    PP/Betfair: 2/1 go, 1/3 stay
    Starsports: 15/8 go, 4/11 stay
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    kinabalu said:

    I am a Labour Party member and my very strong sense is that you are right. The "project" - if we can term it that - is over. I happen not to be overjoyed about this if it leads, as I fear it will, to a certain blandness on policy and a reluctance to push the equality agenda, but of course I will still be voting Labour. So, retain me and my ilk, plus win a ton of floaters and apoliticals - with the obvious caveat of the next election being yonks away, this IMO spells PM Starmer. This slightly dull but highly competent and palpably decent man is going to get his picture on the Downing St staircase. The big question is, will he be next to Boris Johnson or will there be another picture hanging there between them?
    I agree with most of this, but I think you may be pleasantly surprised. I see Starmer as centre left, rather than centre. In due course I'd expect a policy programme that is quite redistributive on economics, fairly radical on social policy, and reasonably challenging to entrenched power. Currently he is, rightly in my view, focusing on putting some clear blue (or red) water between the party and the groups that sought to hijack it under Corbyn with their focus on identitarian politics, their view that Israel/Palestine was the biggest issue in British politics, and so on. He knows full well that to win back the red wall he has to move the party - not so much away from the left, but away from the factional left, many of whom were never Labour supporters before Corbyn. And yes I think he will push the equality agenda, but not in a way that alienates those who do not think that views on transexualism, for example, are the touchstone for being a socialist.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Fishing said:

    I see Madeira is offering tourists tests on arrival. Why don't we do that, instead of quarantine?

    Because if you're infected but asymptomatic you'll pass any test as "clear".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242

    I don't mind if Americans want guns. Just don't ask me to feel appalled at the next lunatic slaughters children at their school desks incident. It happens time and time again with people reacting by voting in politicians who protect the rights of the lunatic over the children.

    I don't get it. Its almost incomprehensible to me. On a human level of course you grieve for the victims. But at a societal level? You get what you vote for, and they vote for slaughter of the innocents.

    It certainly makes one skeptical about thinking and religion, what with all those thoughts and prayers not making gnat's piss of a difference.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,633
    Nigelb said:

    .

    I think one of the prime constraints on reopening is the failure to have a full track and trace infrastructure up and running.
    I simply don't believe the 'world beating by June 1st' nonsense - and in any event, a more proactive government could have had something up and running many weeks ago.

    Reopening comes with risks. I agree with the principle that people should make their own decisions about how they live - but those decisions have consequences for everyone else. Having a system in place to mitigate outbreaks goes a long way to reconciling the interests of the individual with those of the rest of society.

    And having a population willing to stay at home if they have a respiratory infection is perhaps just as important.
    Maybe. But government needs to realise that if such venues cannot open during the summer season when they earn the majority of the year’s income, the majority will likely never reopen at all.

    Is the government prepared for the wave of bankruptcies and unemployment that will follow, the economic, social and health consequences of the destruction of large parts of the tourism and hospitality sectors in parts of the country where there are few alternative industries - and which, coincidentally, have just elected a load of Tory MPs, some of them for the first time?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    Because if you're infected but asymptomatic you'll pass any test as "clear".
    Are you sure? I thought that the test identified the existence of pathogens rather than symptoms?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I wonder if in the medium term we could go further and in 5 years time the same process could be sped up to say 3 minutes, and used to get rid of most colds and flus.
    Would be very welcome. The common cold ruins people's social lives. I have seen umpteen friends have miserable Christmases because they are struggling with a cold.

    It's a horrible thing to have.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Yer man Wings over Bath loses appeal vs Dugdale....

    Heart of stone etc..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.

    It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.

    And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
    Indeed. This needs looking at, urgently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    They seem to be largely blaming the company that runs it on my reading. It sounds hellish for residents and staff.

    'Soon after a nationwide lockdown went into effect in March, a new deputy manager arrived from Kent, in southeastern England. HC-One has said she isolated before starting work. But that was before she made the 650-mile journey to the island, the employees and HC-One said. She eventually became sick and stopped working, the company said.
    Feeling unprotected by management, employees cleaned the home obsessively and enforced their own distancing rules. When residents were startled, as they often were, aides held their hands and stroked them. Sometimes employees broke down crying.

    “People were petrified,” one of the employees said.

    For HC-One, the nursing home business has been lucrative, as the company paid more than 50 million pounds, or nearly $61 million, in dividends from 2017 to 2019.'

    '...HC-One warned that its “ability to continue as a going concern” was in jeopardy.
    But nursing home finances are difficult to trace. The HC-One group includes 62 companies, 19 of them registered offshore, and its parent company is based in the Cayman Islands.
    “It’s money before care all the time,” Ms. Harris said. “The staff they did have worked so hard, but they’ve been let down.”'
    The Commonweal report was very damning of Care Homes too - but no mention of the politician actually responsible for Scottish Care Homes (in this and her previous job) for over a dozen years is quite a free pass!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I don't want to get into another argument over Cummings as I think I have spent enough time on that matter but I do want to criticise the governments handling of this now.

    It's too apologetic, too weak and too equivocal.

    I keep hearing people get asked if others should use their judgement and there's equivocation and it looks weak and dodgy. FFS there should be no question the answer should have always been yes! A clear, unequivocal yes.

    Stay at home is a guideline but of course there'll be exceptions. If your house is on fire then get out. There has to be a line drawn somewhere but that line is grey and will have grey cases either side.

    What's so difficult to say to people: "yes of course, use your common sense"?

    Either you accept people using their common sense - in which case that must apply to everyone - or you don't. This equivocation is weak.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Did you see Michael's other recent tweet?

    https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1265236947808763909

    Prof Tomkins did try something of the sort a few years back.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,080
    First minister out betting. In reshuffles, most books use dead-heat rules but Starsports settle on the first one announced. Probably worth bearing in mind.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Relatively speaking, yes. But note the message. Labour can win an election if they drop those pesky Labour values. That, to me, does not sound like somebody who wants to meet in the middle and kick a ball about. It sounds like somebody still very much in the trenches.
    I disagree. The point about the emotional side of Labour activists is very important. The passion, moralising and certainty that drives many to join Labour to bring about change, is a turn off for many voters, even if they quite like some or many of the policies.

    Hating the Tories and showing it with passion is a pathetic position for a major party in a mostly 2 party country.

    I dislike the PM and this govt very much, but I couldnt dream of hating someone just because they voted for it. And even if I could I would know with certainty it isnt a good way to convince them to change their minds.

    Radical policies are needed for the country, the coming decade is not going to be bland because of the rate of technical change and international turbulence. They will be needed whoever is in power.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    It is no honour for Churchill to be compared with that asswipe Trump!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.

    It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.

    And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
    That's madness. Utter madness.

    Shouldn't even need to apply. Should be automatic for everyone. Insanity and the government needs to do a better job on this.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited May 2020
    So I finally looked up this Emilie Oldknow report last night.

    It seems someone hacked her phone and read a bunch of private messages – it's no wonder some were rather rude about her colleagues.

    They were bitchy, yes, but is that really that unusual in business? Someone on here said they were racist and sexist. Really? They just seemed like standard office bitchiness to me.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,913
    edited May 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.

    It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.

    And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
    Surely it is the shared toilet facilities that is the problem? The more people you have in one place, the more mixing there is going to be. In a garden you are at least limiting contacts to a single group.

    There is definitely a difference.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    TGOHF666 said:

    Yer man Wings over Bath loses appeal vs Dugdale....

    Heart of stone etc..

    Thought you'd be gutted for your fellow Sturgeonhater?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.

    It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.

    And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
    Good luck to your daughter, hopefully she can eventually persuade the authorities to hear her case, if it looks like she’ll otherwise miss the summer season. Sadly, the hospitality industry is going to join aviation as the last industry back on its feet.

    If we are not going to be allowed to loiter indoors, and it’s looking like a good summer, then surely the least we can do is allow a beer tent to set up in everyone’s local park?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    DougSeal said:

    They are but I am not aware of two separate websites.
    Not sure what you you're looking at but the 2 biggest articles 'Tory Civil War' and about 'Emily Maitilis' certainly are not anti Cummings comment wise. Perhaps you had not looked at top rated comments.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Thought you'd be gutted for your fellow Sturgeonhater?
    From this case I'm joining the dots as to why he doesn't like Sturgeon..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Cyclefree said:

    My daughter has applied to vary her licence so that she can sell alcohol as an off licence and the authorities insisted that it can only be with food. Why? No good reason given.

    It is absurd. The authorities are deliberately making it hard for such businesses to have a fighting chance to survive.

    And to answer @Richard_Nabavi’s point: people who drink alcohol in their garden can get just as smashed as easily as in a pub. There is no logical or scientific rationale for allowing people to meet and drink in their gardens and not allowing them to meet and drink in a pub or restaurant garden. None.
    Hmm. I wondered if the logic lies in the need to track and trace, in the absence of a decent app. I'd remember who came to visit me at home, but wouldn't have a clue who was in the table next to me in the local pub, or even always what times I had been a week before. But if the t&t scheme was using things like credit/debit card data anyway, that difference isn't so strong.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,242
    TGOHF666 said:

    From this case I'm joining the dots as to why he doesn't like Sturgeon..
    "Cos he's a bit like you?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    "Cos he's a bit like you?
    Nah - I'm extremely comfortable with all types of sexuality.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    edited May 2020

    Republicans feel that Social Media Platforms totally silence conservatives voices. We will strongly regulate, or close them down, before we can ever allow this to happen. We saw what they attempted to do, and failed, in 2016. We can’t let a more sophisticated version of that....

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 27, 2020

    I've bolded the key bit.
This discussion has been closed.