Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
I think 1% is about right, given the data available.
But these people talk as though a fatality rate of 1% would justify "going back to normal". If we went back to normal, with an R of about 2.4, a 1% fatality rate would give us at least 400,000 deaths directly from COVID-19 alone. To say nothing of the effect of the NHS collapsing within a month or two.
This stuff is just sheer craziness. It's as though these people have been asleep for the past two months.
Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
Time to call a truce on this. Sorry for coming across a bit belligerently.
Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
Time to call a truce on this. Sorry for coming across a bit belligerently.
and me ! Just really frustrated with this situatin because I sincerely believe the long term effects of lockdown is worse
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
Nope, those who set the rules (as Cummings did) really should be making sure they more than meet those rules otherwise they risk being caught out.
Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.
And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
So that's not demanding the same rules for everyone is it?
Deaths due TO covid-19 (not WITH covid-19) - hard to say exactly but 25K? - even if all the official WITH deaths counted thats only 36K so 1% at most
Best figure we have is 5/may ONS death certificates, cause of death 32k (as distinct from deaths involving, which they also tally). That's England and Wales, so add maybe 10% to get whole UK = 35k.
On that same day, excess deaths were at 56k. Some of those may be due to lockdown, but there's not much evidence it's a large chunk of the difference.
The tricky part here is we don't know the time period the antibody survey refers to, and also the gap between infection and people testing positive is a little uncertain (2 weeks?). Then time from infection>death can be 3 more weeks. Too many unknowns.
@Stodge - yeah, polling could save Boris. But, I'd suggest if a poll comes out in the next few days showing something ridiculous like a 12-15 point swing in one go, that might be enough.
Actually, thinking about this a bit more, these silly poll leads that the Tories have had could be really bad news for the Tories. If the polls had steadily closed to something like Tories 39 Labour 33, then the scope for a huge polling shift would have been reduced.
As it is, a lot more of the 45-47 saying Tory at the moment are probably quite soft, meaning there's greater scope for a big change overnight.
Social distancing Guernsey style: (23 days no new cases, one remaining active case)
The trouble is they can't stay isolated forever - what happens the second planes are flying in and out again with finance types from London every day?
A lot of that is now WFH - and whether H is London or St Peter Port doesn't really make much difference. At the moment (and since mid-March) all arrivals self-quarantine for 14 days (yes, it works).
@Stodge - yeah, polling could save Boris. But, I'd suggest if a poll comes out in the next few days showing something ridiculous like a 12-15 point swing in one go, that might be enough.
Actually, thinking about this a bit more, these silly poll leads that the Tories have had could be really bad news for the Tories. If the polls had steadily closed to something like Tories 39 Labour 33, then the scope for a huge polling shift would have been reduced.
As it is, a lot more of the 45-47 saying Tory at the moment are probably quite soft, meaning there's greater scope for a big change overnight.
The 18-34 camp has previously been quite luke warm on Starmer - I suspect that will change now
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
I’ve had plenty of enquiries from employers on this. Usually “x was supposed to be self isolating but y saw him at the park. Is that gross misconduct?” type of thing. So people are scared of the consequences of flouting the rules
But that does involve the workplace doesn't it, as presumably that employee would otherwise have been at work? In general, I am not aware of the principle that people lose their jobs over regulatory infringements (parking tickets, speeding fines) committed in their private lives. Perhaps I'm naive.
That is the great unanswered question. What's in it for Boris? What useful service is Cummings providing? Ironically if Boris did have an answer for that, he could have staged a face-saving move by "demoting" Cummings to be Head of X.
A quick look at some European polling this evening.
First, to Ireland and Leo Varadkar's Fine Gael has surged into a clear lead according to the latest Ireland Thinks poll. FG are on 36% (+15), SF on 27% (+2) and FF on a disastrous 16% (-6).
Not much change in Slovakia where the centre-right O'LaNO bloc leads the opposition Social Democrats 23-22.
In Poland, the governing PiS has seen its normally huge lead slashed with a surg e in support for the Civic Coalition - the former is down four, the latter up nine but the Government still leads by 16 points (42-26).
In Germany, the Union leads by 22 points from the SPD which has overtaken the Greens for second - the numbers 38-16-15.
One country where the Government isn't doing so well is Belgium where a poll in the Flanders region has the Opposition VB (Vlaams Belang) in the lead moving up six to 25 points. The lead Flemish Party in the Federal Government, the New Flemish Alliance is down six to 20% with its partner parties, the Christian Democrats and Liberal Democrats both down to to 12% and 14% respectively.
The next election for the Flemish Parliament is 2024.
Lockdown is over. People have - quite rightly - bent the rules. Time to be sensible and adopt a risk segmentation approach.
The problem is, nobody has thought through the easing of lockdown and the precautions that should already be in place. So far all we have been given are some dates, and little else. It is a really poor show.
Before you know it we will be back to R over one and a second spike. Chaos!
That is the great unanswered question. What's in it for Boris? What useful service is Cummings providing? Ironically if Boris did have an answer for that, he could have staged a face-saving move by "demoting" Cummings to be Head of X.
Cummings is an unparalleled opposition communicator; he and Ken Livingstone are among the only people to beat New Labour in a big vote. The tragedy is that a few people, including him and his alleged boss, think that makes him a strategist.
I'm losing the plot. I seem to remember the Reverend Fraser lost his job because he was allowing poor people to sleep on the steps of his church when the economy last went to shit due to capitalist nihilists who thought the rules applied to little people like Cummings.
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
Nope, those who set the rules (as Cummings did) really should be making sure they more than meet those rules otherwise they risk being caught out.
Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.
And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
So that's not demanding the same rules for everyone is it?
The rules are the same - but most people who set them, are sensible and bright enough to ensure they don't get close to breaking them or put in a position where it looks like they might have broken them.
Oh you can be Boris and his cronies and create a set of rules and then completely ignore them because "those rules are for the little people"
Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
Why do you think it is that the excess deaths are heavily concentrated in areas with most covid, yet very low in low covid areas under same lockdown?
Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
Why do you think it is that the excess deaths are heavily concentrated in areas with most covid, yet very low in low covid areas under same lockdown?
If thats the case it could be that hospitals are clamming up more in those areas?
I'm losing the plot. I seem to remember the Reverend Fraser lost his job because he was allowing poor people to sleep on the steps of his church when the economy last went to shit due to capitalist nihilists who thought the rules applied to little people like Cummings.
Brexit derangement syndrome.
If I were cynical I might think the rev saw a chance for more media exposure on the reactionary side of the culture war. But I'm not cynical.
Anecdata alert! Plenty of first time Tory voters (here in part of the Red Wall that stayed Labour but saw a large upsurge in the Tory vote) very unhappy with Boris, if Facebook is anything to go by.
Lockdown is over. People have - quite rightly - bent the rules. Time to be sensible and adopt a risk segmentation approach.
The problem is, nobody has thought through the easing of lockdown and the precautions that should already be in place. So far all we have been given are some dates, and little else. It is a really poor show.
Before you know it we will be back to R over one and a second spike. Chaos!
People are losing their fear of it though. It’s statistically safe for fit under 50s.
As a (supposedly) fellow liberal Anglican it pains me to say this, but Giles Fraser really is Dan Hodges with a dog collar... reliably wrong in any situation.
Bush Telegraph: Has to be said, my Wedding Cake Tree (Cornus controversa variegata) is looking spectacular right now - completely smothered in flowers:
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
Nope, those who set the rules (as Cummings did) really should be making sure they more than meet those rules otherwise they risk being caught out.
Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.
And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
So that's not demanding the same rules for everyone is it?
The rules are the same - but most people who set them, are sensible and bright enough to ensure they don't get close to breaking them or put in a position where it looks like they might have broken them.
Oh you can be Boris and his cronies and create a set of rules and then completely ignore them because "those rules are for the little people"
So the rules are the same but the penalties for breaking them are not the same.
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
Lets assess my etiquette.
Since lockdown started have not been more than 100ft away from my home and that is only to take the bins out.
Lockdown is over. People have - quite rightly - bent the rules. Time to be sensible and adopt a risk segmentation approach.
The problem is, nobody has thought through the easing of lockdown and the precautions that should already be in place. So far all we have been given are some dates, and little else. It is a really poor show.
Before you know it we will be back to R over one and a second spike. Chaos!
People are losing their fear of it though. It’s statistically safe for fit under 50s.
Are they? - some people I know are, other people are more paranoid now then they were a month ago.
He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
Nope, those who set the rules (as Cummings did) really should be making sure they more than meet those rules otherwise they risk being caught out.
Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.
And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
So that's not demanding the same rules for everyone is it?
The rules are the same - but most people who set them, are sensible and bright enough to ensure they don't get close to breaking them or put in a position where it looks like they might have broken them.
Oh you can be Boris and his cronies and create a set of rules and then completely ignore them because "those rules are for the little people"
So the rules are the same but the penalties for breaking them are not the same.
Nope the penalties are potentially the same - bringing your employer into disrupt could cost you your job.
Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.
Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.
You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
Are you one of those who want to stay inside your house on furlough forever?
You're talking about abandoning the 2m distance. In fact, you want to abandon social distancing altogether.
If we do that and go completely back to normal, what do you suppose is there to prevent the virus from spreading through 60% of the population? And how many people do you think would die if that happened?
As I said earlier I would only go to no social distancing when we are at Level 2 ie no significant virus presence in the population. So no material risk.
Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
Excess death figure.
Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
Why do you think it is that the excess deaths are heavily concentrated in areas with most covid, yet very low in low covid areas under same lockdown?
If thats the case it could be that hospitals are clamming up more in those areas?
But nowhere have hospitals truly collapsed. It is not just a UK phenomenon. Everywhere in the world the excess deaths are in covid hot spots.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Given that nobody seems to have been infected in Islington in the last week (I know Hampstead Heath is in Camden) I suspect fear has evaporated from those who are 'out and about'.
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
The relaxation steps of lockdown, with Track, Trace and Isolate require more discipline than the simple lockdown. The quickest way for it to fail is for people to ignore Quarantine. Pretty much nailed on now.
The relaxation steps of lockdown, with Track, Trace and Isolate require more discipline than the simple lockdown. The quickest way for it to fail is for people to ignore Quarantine. Pretty much nailed on now.
Question track and trace requires the app for it to work. Who after tonight's fiasco is going to download and install it?
Personally I prefer to err on the side of giving people as much freedom as possible albeit with providing them with as much information as possible to make their decisions upon.
Worth noting that all the stuff about 2 metres etc is nowhere in the legislation or the rules.
It is simply guidance.
And we’ve seen today what the government thinks of that.
So, frankly, if I were reopening a business I would do whatever was in the best interests of my business, my staff and customers. Those would be my business “instincts”. I certainly wouldn’t be following “guidance” which would destroy my business. Nor would I follow the guidance just because the government issued it.
The problem with social distancing is that the public seem unable to deal in principles, only absolutes.
The aim is that population-averaged and time-averaged everyone stands a bit further away from each other or simply leaves the house less to not be in any contact with anyone else. The idea isn't that absolutely noone ever goes within anyone else's 2m box ever and it would be a failure if that did happen because (a) it's an entirely arbitrary distance (b) it's entirely impractical over the medium to long term and (c) it's entirely unenforceable.
By all means it is sensible to try and get folk to put a bit more distance between themselves but it's not a long term solution and people who get panicky because someone is 1.9m away from them not 2m are rather missing the point.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Given that nobody seems to have been infected in Islington in the last week (I know Hampstead Heath is in Camden) I suspect fear has evaporated from those who are 'out and about'.
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
Hampstead Heath is probably busier now than it has ever been. Plenty of mass picnics and people taking advantage of the weather. Part of it is probably because it is so hard to police. From personal experience of running around it, I would say the vast majority of the people in groups are in their 20s with a few families interspersed. Cannot blame them - I suspect many are stuck in cramped flats which are not particularly pleasant on a hot day.
Johnson has misjudged the public mood and anger pretty badly IMO.
There is a chance Johnson now becomes the issue.
This scenario could not have played out any better for SKS
Cummings has put the PM right in the firing line, and he has readily tried to be human shield.
Next Tory MPs to be inundated with angry e mails from Constituents.
I reckon a few polls (if they did show the Tories trailing) which they probably won't
Tory MPs would chuck Boris very Quickly
Give me one example in all of British history when a Prime Minister was chucked after a few bad polls. I'll wait.
Maggie Thatcher?
Thatcher went after "a few bad polls" did she? I really don't think so. I think it took a fair bit more than "a few bad polls" to dislodge her.
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1979 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1980 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1981 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls early 1982 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in many polls in 1984 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1985 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1986
The relaxation steps of lockdown, with Track, Trace and Isolate require more discipline than the simple lockdown. The quickest way for it to fail is for people to ignore Quarantine. Pretty much nailed on now.
Quarantine enforcement was always going to have to be done by employers.
I doubt that the government ever intended to police it themselves.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
I don't think Boris is firing on all cylinders - "Doesn't he look tired"
Johnson has misjudged the public mood and anger pretty badly IMO.
There is a chance Johnson now becomes the issue.
This scenario could not have played out any better for SKS
Cummings has put the PM right in the firing line, and he has readily tried to be human shield.
Next Tory MPs to be inundated with angry e mails from Constituents.
I reckon a few polls (if they did show the Tories trailing) which they probably won't
Tory MPs would chuck Boris very Quickly
Give me one example in all of British history when a Prime Minister was chucked after a few bad polls. I'll wait.
I’m wary of falling into this trap. Everything is unprecedented until it actually happens. Inevitably you will highlight the many differences - but there are similarities in the historical analogue that springs to my mind. Not really polling in this example, but one 20th Century PM, also a former Foreign Secretary, was forced out when clearly unwell and was making significant political miscalculations that alienated his backbenchers and cabinet. If you want a historical precedent for BoJo then I would look to Anthony Eden. His majority was 60 when he was shown the door.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Given that nobody seems to have been infected in Islington in the last week (I know Hampstead Heath is in Camden) I suspect fear has evaporated from those who are 'out and about'.
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
Hampstead Heath is probably busier now than it has ever been. Plenty of mass picnics and people taking advantage of the weather. Part of it is probably because it is so hard to police. From personal experience of running around it, I would say the vast majority of the people in groups are in their 20s with a few families interspersed. Cannot blame them - I suspect many are stuck in cramped flats which are not particularly pleasant on a hot day.
and tbh if nobody is being infected in Hampstead despite these gatherings it probably means herd immunity has been reached in those areas. Again shows the mortality rate is not that high overall.
The problem with social distancing is that the public seem unable to deal in principles, only absolutes.
The aim is that population-averaged and time-averaged everyone stands a bit further away from each other or simply leaves the house less to not be in any contact with anyone else. The idea isn't that absolutely noone ever goes within anyone else's 2m box ever and it would be a failure if that did happen because (a) it's an entirely arbitrary distance (b) it's entirely impractical over the medium to long term and (c) it's entirely unenforceable.
By all means it is sensible to try and get folk to put a bit more distance between themselves but it's not a long term solution and people who get panicky because someone is 1.9m away from them not 2m are rather missing the point.
In practice 2M is usually 1.5M or less, by my observations.
I don't think it clear yet how much is spread by aerosol, by droplet or by contaminated surfaces.
We do see that when one patient in a six bed bay tests positive, within a week the others often do, even though the index patient is immediately shifted to another ward or sideroom.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
Because once the entire media and Opposition establishment - and even some on your own side - have jumped up and down and screamed 'You Must! You Must! YOU MUST!' and you tell them to get stuffed, then the spell has been broken and you can weather just about anything after that.
That is the political prize at the heart of all this.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
WTF has this got to do with Remainers? Brexit is complete, we are one big happy Brexit family now
The cabinet and the shadow cabinet, are going to have to account for all their movements over the past few weeks to their superiors. The story has got to go somewhere.
What makes people angry in the Cummings case is not just the breaking of lockdown it was failing to quarantine with the virus. The rules were pretty clear - if someone has the virus they self-isolate with their family. Ignoring that on the grounds that a couple in their circumstance had to travel to Durham in order to get child care is just taking the piss to be honest. It's taking us all for mugs.
Just re-reading BJ's press conference statement, and it's even worse than I'd noticed at the time.
Among many gems, he said: Dominic Cummings and I have concluded that in travelling to find the right kind of childcare, at the moment when both he and his wife were about to be incapacitated by coronavirus.... Cummings is indeed a super-forecaster.
So, back in late March, anybody could have said "I'm travelling because I'm about to be incapacitated by coronavirus"; pretty easy to ignore lockdown then.
I was thinking that myself. If it was legal* it would be a piece of piss to pull up the data about where the phones belonging to Dom and his wife have been, as well as looking at all their payment receipts, and anywhere their car has passed an ANPR camera. It's extremely difficult to avoid leaving an eletronic trail.
* I've no idea if checking out his story to the Cabinet Office would qualify.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
I don't think Boris is firing on all cylinders - "Doesn't he look tired"
Yep. I stand by my wild prediction Boris will retire "on health grounds". Probably in 2021?
We have left the EU - January 2021 is going to be a nightmare, I suspect it will be earlier than that.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Given that nobody seems to have been infected in Islington in the last week (I know Hampstead Heath is in Camden) I suspect fear has evaporated from those who are 'out and about'.
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
Hampstead Heath is probably busier now than it has ever been. Plenty of mass picnics and people taking advantage of the weather. Part of it is probably because it is so hard to police. From personal experience of running around it, I would say the vast majority of the people in groups are in their 20s with a few families interspersed. Cannot blame them - I suspect many are stuck in cramped flats which are not particularly pleasant on a hot day.
and tbh if nobody is being infected in Hampstead despite these gatherings it probably means herd immunity has been reached in those areas. Again shows the mortality rate is not that high overall.
Yes, I suspect that is right. The aftermath is going to be horrible - there are a lot of people about to be made unemployed once the furloughing measures end (in fact, the redundancies are already happening) and there will be very few jobs to go to. It will be appalling.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
I don't think Boris is firing on all cylinders - "Doesn't he look tired"
Yep. I stand by my wild prediction Boris will retire "on health grounds". Probably in 2021?
Well, there's a bloody good chance he wont be outside CCHQ admitting defeat to Starmer. He will go before then.
Johnson has misjudged the public mood and anger pretty badly IMO.
There is a chance Johnson now becomes the issue.
This scenario could not have played out any better for SKS
Cummings has put the PM right in the firing line, and he has readily tried to be human shield.
Next Tory MPs to be inundated with angry e mails from Constituents.
I reckon a few polls (if they did show the Tories trailing) which they probably won't
Tory MPs would chuck Boris very Quickly
Give me one example in all of British history when a Prime Minister was chucked after a few bad polls. I'll wait.
Maggie Thatcher?
Thatcher went after "a few bad polls" did she? I really don't think so. I think it took a fair bit more than "a few bad polls" to dislodge her.
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1979 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1980 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1981 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls early 1982 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in many polls in 1984 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1985 Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1986
Thatcher was able to survive "a few bad polls"
The thing she couldn't survive was the conclusion (rightly or wrongly) that she'd passed the tipping point.
"Holed below the waterline" is hard to define but, arguably, you know it when you see it and polls are merely a symptom.
I think we're a little way from that, although this is all hugely damaging in a more than short term way for Johnson.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
Because once the entire media and Opposition establishment - and even some on your own side - have jumped up and down and screamed 'You Must! You Must! YOU MUST!' and you tell them to get stuffed, then the spell has been broken and you can weather just about anything after that.
That is the political prize at the heart of all this.
Well you may be able to weather everything but in reality people will just start to ignore you.
Boris was always a clown you laughed with, today he became a clown you laugh at.
Johnson has misjudged the public mood and anger pretty badly IMO.
There is a chance Johnson now becomes the issue.
This scenario could not have played out any better for SKS
Cummings has put the PM right in the firing line, and he has readily tried to be human shield.
Next Tory MPs to be inundated with angry e mails from Constituents.
I reckon a few polls (if they did show the Tories trailing) which they probably won't
Tory MPs would chuck Boris very Quickly
Give me one example in all of British history when a Prime Minister was chucked after a few bad polls. I'll wait.
I’m wary of falling into this trap. Everything is unprecedented until it actually happens. Inevitably you will highlight the many differences - but there are similarities in the historical analogue that springs to my mind. Not really polling in this example, but one 20th Century PM, also a former Foreign Secretary, was forced out when clearly unwell and was making significant political miscalculations that alienated his backbenchers and cabinet. If you want a historical precedent for BoJo then I would look to Anthony Eden. His majority was 60 when he was shown the door.
Another Etonian too I believe. Told from early on that they’re born to rule & that iron self belief takes some of them to the top, where it turns out that they’re grossly unsuited to the role. Eton has a lot to answer for.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
Given that nobody seems to have been infected in Islington in the last week (I know Hampstead Heath is in Camden) I suspect fear has evaporated from those who are 'out and about'.
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
Hampstead Heath is probably busier now than it has ever been. Plenty of mass picnics and people taking advantage of the weather. Part of it is probably because it is so hard to police. From personal experience of running around it, I would say the vast majority of the people in groups are in their 20s with a few families interspersed. Cannot blame them - I suspect many are stuck in cramped flats which are not particularly pleasant on a hot day.
and tbh if nobody is being infected in Hampstead despite these gatherings it probably means herd immunity has been reached in those areas. Again shows the mortality rate is not that high overall.
Yes, I suspect that is right. The aftermath is going to be horrible - there are a lot of people about to be made unemployed once the furloughing measures end (in fact, the redundancies are already happening) and there will be very few jobs to go to. It will be appalling.
Fully agree - not just economic damage though also social damage especially in education and loss of focus , opportunity and anticipation in the young
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
I suspect Boris and Dom have got carried away with the 'This is all about Brexit' thing. To them, saying 'Stuff you all' and exposing the 'Liberal Elite' as impotent is a genuine thrill and a badge of virility. I wouldn't be surprised if Dom didn't leak the details of his Durham trip himself. He seems completely unperturbed. If anything he's glorying in the infamy and being the centre of attention again.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
It's a good question. I speculate Cummings didn't allow Johnson to do that. I get the impression (a) Cummings doesn't think he did anything wrong and (b) he thinks, fuck you all. So he tells Johnson, you keep me on and say how wonderful I am, or I'll walk and bring your adminstration down, Johnson, weak man as he is, said fine. Pure speculation, but both have acted like this this before
There is a lot of frustration, fear and anger about the CV lockdown. This goes far beyond Cummings. Cummings is a catalyst.
Boris has unwittingly positioned his government to be the recipient of all of that.
The question is why. What was worse than that?
Indeed. I guess that maybe Cummings' sudden departure would expose Boris fatally, in some way. But how?
Other possibility- he doesn't realise quite how perilous his situation is.
Partly because Boris is Boris, and one of his loveable features (and I mean this sincerely, despite really not being a fan) is the ability to move on from disaster to further triumphs. Up to now, that's worked for him. So why should he worry?
Less lovable is his genius for postmodern politics. All effective politicians have been able to mould reality to match what they say, but BoJo really is the zen master of it. If he says something costs £350million, it really costs that much. If he says his new Brexit deal isn't Mrs May's terrible deal (only a bit worse), it's true. If he says that what Dom did is fine, it's fine. Isn't it?
Finally, how much is he suffering from Lockdown Bunker Fever? He can't be getting the inputs to tell him how fed up *everyone* is (even those of us who think it would be nuts to go back to normal just yet) and how personally sleazy Dom's actions look here. Because nothing in Downing Street's response speaks to the single parent in the 8th floor flat- if anything, it makes it worse.
Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.
I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.
Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
The question is: cui bono?
What does Boris gain from expending so much political capital on a clearly erring aide. Why not do what I suggested at the start of this: let Dom go now, and rehire him quietly in the dog days of August, in a "different role".
That's the clever route. Labour and Remainers would squeal but the political damage would be minimal
Something doesn't add up
I suspect Boris and Dom have got carried away with the 'This is all about Brexit' thing. To them, saying 'Stuff you all' and exposing the 'Liberal Elite' as impotent is a genuine thrill and a badge of virility. I wouldn't be surprised if Dom didn't leak the details of his Durham trip himself. He seems completely unperturbed. If anything he's glorying in the infamy and being the centre of attention again.
Certainly. I don't think anyone would seriously doubt he's had at least a semi on at all times since this story broke.
Comments
Technically, it may take fours years before they actually shoot the horse.
All sorts of people have all sorts of skeletons in their cupboards.
But these people talk as though a fatality rate of 1% would justify "going back to normal". If we went back to normal, with an R of about 2.4, a 1% fatality rate would give us at least 400,000 deaths directly from COVID-19 alone. To say nothing of the effect of the NHS collapsing within a month or two.
This stuff is just sheer craziness. It's as though these people have been asleep for the past two months.
On that same day, excess deaths were at 56k. Some of those may be due to lockdown, but there's not much evidence it's a large chunk of the difference.
The tricky part here is we don't know the time period the antibody survey refers to, and also the gap between infection and people testing positive is a little uncertain (2 weeks?). Then time from infection>death can be 3 more weeks. Too many unknowns.
As it is, a lot more of the 45-47 saying Tory at the moment are probably quite soft, meaning there's greater scope for a big change overnight.
The real PM.
Dom is god. Baby don't purge me, don't purge me no more.
There is a chance Johnson now becomes the issue.
This scenario could not have played out any better for SKS
Cummings has put the PM right in the firing line, and he has readily tried to be human shield.
Next Tory MPs to be inundated with angry e mails from Constituents.
I reckon a few polls (if they did show the Tories trailing) which they probably won't
Tory MPs would chuck Boris very Quickly
https://twitter.com/giles_fraser/status/1264630747459133447?s=20
First, to Ireland and Leo Varadkar's Fine Gael has surged into a clear lead according to the latest Ireland Thinks poll. FG are on 36% (+15), SF on 27% (+2) and FF on a disastrous 16% (-6).
Not much change in Slovakia where the centre-right O'LaNO bloc leads the opposition Social Democrats 23-22.
In Poland, the governing PiS has seen its normally huge lead slashed with a surg e in support for the Civic Coalition - the former is down four, the latter up nine but the Government still leads by 16 points (42-26).
In Germany, the Union leads by 22 points from the SPD which has overtaken the Greens for second - the numbers 38-16-15.
One country where the Government isn't doing so well is Belgium where a poll in the Flanders region has the Opposition VB (Vlaams Belang) in the lead moving up six to 25 points. The lead Flemish Party in the Federal Government, the New Flemish Alliance is down six to 20% with its partner parties, the Christian Democrats and Liberal Democrats both down to to 12% and 14% respectively.
The next election for the Flemish Parliament is 2024.
Before you know it we will be back to R over one and a second spike. Chaos!
Oh you can be Boris and his cronies and create a set of rules and then completely ignore them because "those rules are for the little people"
Boris has unwittingly positioned his government to be the recipient of all of that.
The question is why. What was worse than that?
If I were cynical I might think the rev saw a chance for more media exposure on the reactionary side of the culture war. But I'm not cynical.
Since lockdown started have not been more than 100ft away from my home and that is only to take the bins out.
Am I pure enough to demand Cumming's sacking?
Probably not seeing you in a pub soon
The Eastbourne by-election was perhaps more important.
(and Europe!)
I like your second paragraph, it chimes with what Cummings's character might well be.
The relaxation steps of lockdown, with Track, Trace and Isolate require more discipline than the simple lockdown. The quickest way for it to fail is for people to ignore Quarantine. Pretty much nailed on now.
Personally I prefer to err on the side of giving people as much freedom as possible albeit with providing them with as much information as possible to make their decisions upon.
It is simply guidance.
And we’ve seen today what the government thinks of that.
So, frankly, if I were reopening a business I would do whatever was in the best interests of my business, my staff and customers. Those would be my business “instincts”. I certainly wouldn’t be following “guidance” which would destroy my business. Nor would I follow the guidance just because the government issued it.
Ditto for personal decisions.
The aim is that population-averaged and time-averaged everyone stands a bit further away from each other or simply leaves the house less to not be in any contact with anyone else. The idea isn't that absolutely noone ever goes within anyone else's 2m box ever and it would be a failure if that did happen because (a) it's an entirely arbitrary distance (b) it's entirely impractical over the medium to long term and (c) it's entirely unenforceable.
By all means it is sensible to try and get folk to put a bit more distance between themselves but it's not a long term solution and people who get panicky because someone is 1.9m away from them not 2m are rather missing the point.
Which is not the same as when he was in self isolation.
But I don't think a lack of an election means Johnson is safe.
Like I say, an addiction to short-term thinking has turned the punditry's capacity to put political events into perspective to mush.
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1979
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1980
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls in 1981
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in the polls early 1982
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in many polls in 1984
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1985
Kind of ignores the fact that Thatcher was behind in most polls in 1986
Thatcher was able to survive "a few bad polls"
I doubt that the government ever intended to police it themselves.
I don't think it clear yet how much is spread by aerosol, by droplet or by contaminated surfaces.
We do see that when one patient in a six bed bay tests positive, within a week the others often do, even though the index patient is immediately shifted to another ward or sideroom.
That is the political prize at the heart of all this.
Among many gems, he said: Dominic Cummings and I have concluded that in travelling to find the right kind of childcare, at the moment when both he and his wife were about to be incapacitated by coronavirus.... Cummings is indeed a super-forecaster.
So, back in late March, anybody could have said "I'm travelling because I'm about to be incapacitated by coronavirus"; pretty easy to ignore lockdown then.
* I've no idea if checking out his story to the Cabinet Office would qualify.
The May local elections were regarded as a good performance for the Conservatives as they gained seats and councils:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_United_Kingdom_local_elections
but the June 1989 Euro elections were regarded as a big defeat as they lost lots of seats to Labour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
but the Labour lead was actually higher in May than in June - the difference being the effect of the electoral cycle.
"Holed below the waterline" is hard to define but, arguably, you know it when you see it and polls are merely a symptom.
I think we're a little way from that, although this is all hugely damaging in a more than short term way for Johnson.
Boris was always a clown you laughed with, today he became a clown you laugh at.
"Minister Nadine Dorries criticised for tweeting ‘doctored video from far-right account’ attacking Keir Starmer"
https://tinyurl.com/ybj6xfcy
It's like eating malted milk biscuits. Except without the biscuits.
Partly because Boris is Boris, and one of his loveable features (and I mean this sincerely, despite really not being a fan) is the ability to move on from disaster to further triumphs. Up to now, that's worked for him. So why should he worry?
Less lovable is his genius for postmodern politics. All effective politicians have been able to mould reality to match what they say, but BoJo really is the zen master of it. If he says something costs £350million, it really costs that much. If he says his new Brexit deal isn't Mrs May's terrible deal (only a bit worse), it's true. If he says that what Dom did is fine, it's fine. Isn't it?
Finally, how much is he suffering from Lockdown Bunker Fever? He can't be getting the inputs to tell him how fed up *everyone* is (even those of us who think it would be nuts to go back to normal just yet) and how personally sleazy Dom's actions look here. Because nothing in Downing Street's response speaks to the single parent in the 8th floor flat- if anything, it makes it worse.