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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Social Distancing: How Far? How Long For?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,143
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Social Distancing: How Far? How Long For?

Isolation, especially when imposed rather than chosen, is hard. No wonder solitary confinement is a punishment. Periods of quiet, retreat, solitariness are valuable as a contrast to life’s normal noisy busyness. Above all, they are chosen and can be broken at will, our will. Humans crave and seek intimacy and closeness and communal activities. Socialisation and socialising – in their widest sense – are necessary for the sound development of the child and joy as an adult. The support and comfort of friends and family during times of trouble, the kindness of strangers, the sharing and mutual enjoyment of – and participation in – activities, celebrations and remembrances, being with others, the mixing, the buzz, the conversation, the joint creation of something by a group, by an “us”, are what all human societies have done or tried to do, no matter what the obstacles. Not all of this has been in the flesh. But most of it – and not simply because the technology was previously unavailable. There is something special, something necessary, something real about being with other people, about touch and looks and sound (and yes, smell, too) and the emotions created by physical closeness. Human communication is so much more than instructions or words mediated via screen or page.

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Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    edited May 2020
    Cummings reported to police for breach of lockdown and Public Health Protection concerns.

    Number plate and descriptions given including info of where is was parked.

    CCTV?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Second
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Third as in what position in the polls the tories will be in soon...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    FPT:
    tlg86 said:

    What a different time. The party leaders arguing about who had the strongest pro-EU credentials.

    I thought Major was rather good in that clip.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    Sadly, the best evidence from the Robert Koch institute and others is that the meaningful distances that prevent infection are 1.5m while doing nothing, 2m when moving slowly, and much further for people engaged in fast aerobic activity like jogging or cycling. I guess the viruses that are stopped at 1m don't tend to become pandemics. 1m probably makes a difference, but is certainly a measure whose end goal is not minimising spread (and maybe that's fine).
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172

    Cummings reported to police.

    Number plate and descriptions given

    Not quite. The former Chief Constable of Durham Constabulary has made a formal complaint, I almost wonder if he was put up to it by the current Chief Constable.
  • I lost count, like Johnson did with Cummings' lies
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .
  • I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    edited May 2020
    eek said:

    Cummings reported to police.

    Number plate and descriptions given

    Not quite. The former Chief Constable of Durham Constabulary has made a formal complaint, I almost wonder if he was put up to it by the current Chief Constable.
    NO YOU ARE MIXING 2 BITS OF THE ARTICLE UP. A 71 year old teacher reported him the ex Chief Constable is just commenting on the inappropriateness and risks of Cummings antics
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited May 2020
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    Did you have a bet on that with another PBer or am I misremembering?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/dmk1793/status/1264605080671735810?s=20

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited May 2020

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    Did you have a bet on that with another PBer or am I misremembering?
    No, although would be happy to.

    Whenever I make a prediction the two usual suspects attack me for predicting 2019 wrong.

    Despite the fact, I called:

    2017 (when most here most certainly did not)

    Peterborough by-election

    Johnson becoming leader

    Starmer becoming leader

    so actually my track record is very good.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    Will it be as good as your prediction earlier today that Cummings was gone, I wonder?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    https://twitter.com/dmk1793/status/1264605080671735810?s=20

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"

    I think there’s something in this but it’s not the story
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    Social distancing needs two to tango. We might, I fear, be about to enter a slightly more dangerous time, as uncertain interactions between those observing the current precautions and their more relaxed peers risk becoming fraught and some will end in fisticuffs.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    Will it be as good as your prediction earlier today that Cummings was gone, I wonder?
    Based on the current odds available there’s plenty who still think he might be.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    What a different time. The party leaders arguing about who had the strongest pro-EU credentials.

    I thought Major was rather good in that clip.
    Major's point about Labour proved to be very perceptive. It was after all under Blair that we became semi-detached from the EU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142

    https://twitter.com/dmk1793/status/1264605080671735810?s=20

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"

    Has anyone attacked it? They'd look pretty bad if they tried to make something of it.

    Yes, it's unprofessional and the CS should take action, but I don't think it helps the Government and Cummings.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142

    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    What a different time. The party leaders arguing about who had the strongest pro-EU credentials.

    I thought Major was rather good in that clip.
    Major's point about Labour proved to be very perceptive. It was after all under Blair that we became semi-detached from the EU.
    The British public knew what they were doing when they turfed out the Tories!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The detailed reasons why the SPI-B member is so angry need noting:

    https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"

    Perhaps Cummings sent it.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    edited May 2020

    https://twitter.com/dmk1793/status/1264605080671735810?s=20

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"

    You cannot use the official channel of the Civil Service to post that ! Senior Civil Servants should not even use their own social media to do a much never mind the official channel. Its a question of honour.Occasionally I disagree with my employer (reasonably public profile) but I don't post about it let alone use the workplace social media to do so
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, it’s a tightrope that needs walking. Thanks to the Prime Minister today, we’re now walking it in clown shoes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    As long as that?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    I think those comments will cost more lives.

    Lots of people will have the attitude screw the rules if they can ignore them we will too.

    Disgraceful

    Will it affect the polls?

    Not by as much as people think until there is a 2nd wave that people blame on the Gov't
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    PBers who fervently believe the Prime Minister has settled the Cummings problem can back their judgement that #ClassicDom will be in his current job on the 1st of June (a mere "long time in politics" from now).

    PP/Betfair: 11/5 go, 8/11 stay
    Starsports: 5/4 go, 4/7 stay
  • Keir Starmer looking like the adult, real PM tonight.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I think those comments will cost more lives.

    Lots of people will have the attitude screw the rules if they can ignore them we will too.

    Disgraceful

    Will it affect the polls?

    Not by as much as people think until there is a 2nd wave that people blame on the Gov't
    I agree with every last word of that.
  • Do you remember that time you couldn't travel to see your parents or grandparents and didn't for months on end because we're all in it together and such things breached the terms of lockdown?

    Do you remember the time you couldn't travel to hospital to say a final goodbye to your parents or grandparents as they died?

    Do you remember that time Classic Dom said "fuck you grockles; I make rules for you and there are no rules for me"?

    Do you remember that time Boris Johnson said "Dom's a hero and you lot are all wrong"?

    Well I think on this night in four years' time we'll be discussing how long people's memories are.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Social distancing Guernsey style: (23 days no new cases, one remaining active case)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    The cabinet and the shadow cabinet, are going to have to account for all their movements over the past few weeks to their superiors. The story has got to go somewhere.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    It's a totally bonkers speech. He sets out the question:

    Have we been asking you to make sacrifices, to obey social distancing, to stay at home while some people have been basically flouting those rules and endangering lives?

    Punchy question that doesn't answer directly. But the implied answer from what he says next is clearly, YES.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I will revise my prediction on polling.

    Parity by the end of July.

    You might be 50% clear by the end of July but it's the GE which counts.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    How does that work, exactly? How do you observe 2m distancing in the company of people 1m apart? What happens when the no distancers arrive? Social distancing only works as a collective activity.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    edited May 2020

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    How does that work, exactly? How do you observe 2m distancing in the company of people 1m apart? What happens when the no distancers arrive? Social distancing only works as a collective activity.
    What I am trying to say - maybe not clearly - is that the test should be 1m not 2m
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2020

    The detailed reasons why the SPI-B member is so angry need noting:

    https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21

    He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
    60K link please!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
    Excess death figure.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    https://twitter.com/dmk1793/status/1264605080671735810?s=20

    He's right - I bet Cummings enjoyed that tweet - "See! I told you!"

    You cannot use the official channel of the Civil Service to post that ! Senior Civil Servants should not even use their own social media to do a much never mind the official channel. Its a question of honour.Occasionally I disagree with my employer (reasonably public profile) but I don't post about it let alone use the workplace social media to do so
    I don't really know why the civil service has a Twitter account.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
    60K link please!
    Honestly anyone who thinks the mortality rate of covid -19 is over 1% at this stage is not keeping up
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535

    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
    I return to my game theory joke.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?

    Antibody testing had 6.9% for England as a whole, so maybe 6% for the whole of the UK?

  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
    What would be genuinely hilarious - not that I seriously believe it - would be if this were all part of a 3-dimensional chess game.

    Typical Frother: 'Fucking Cummings - I've had it up to here with lockdown. I'll show him - I'm going out! And back to work too, the bald twat!'

    A few weeks later, in No.10:

    Cummings: 'Economic activity is rapidly returning to normal levels as predicted, Prime Minister.'

    Boris: 'Excellent!'
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172

    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
    I return to my game theory joke.
    That's fine until the virus returns and we need to lock down again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    I would hope that Starmer would not have employed such a raving bonkers nihilist in the first place.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    Andrew said:


    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?

    Antibody testing had 6.9% for England as a whole, so maybe 6% for the whole of the UK?

    So under 1% then ,especially as the deaths are always quoted as dying WITH covid-19.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
    Excess death figure.
    Thanks!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,420
    "Defence of Dominic Cummings is shameful, says ex-Durham police chief

    Mike Barton brands UK government ‘self-privileged hypocrites’ who have damaged public trust"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/24/defence-of-dominic-cummings-is-shameful-says-ex-durham-police-chief
  • If Corbyn were still around, Johnson would have got away with this.

    Unfortunately for Johnson, Starmer is - or seems to be - squeaky clean.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
    What would be genuinely hilarious - not that I seriously believe it - would be if this were all part of a 3-dimensional chess game.

    Typical Frother: 'Fucking Cummings - I've had it up to here with lockdown. I'll show him - I'm going out! And back to work too, the bald twat!'

    A few weeks later, in No.10:

    Cummings: 'Economic activity is rapidly returning to normal levels as predicted, Prime Minister.'

    Boris: 'Excellent!'
    I honestly dont think the tories are that clever but its certianly worked out well with this indignance to now disobey the draconian rules - see Piers Morgan!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Different social distancing rules around the world:

    WHO/Singapore: 1m
    Germany/Austria: 1.5m
    USA CDC / UK: 2m

    Wonder what the "Science" behind that is....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
    60K link please!
    Honestly anyone who thinks the mortality rate of covid -19 is over 1% at this stage is not keeping up
    Come on then. Show me your workings. Number of deaths divided by number of infections, multiplied by 100 to give a percentage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    isam said:

    The detailed reasons why the SPI-B member is so angry need noting:

    https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21

    He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
    Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
    Are
    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
    Are you one of those who want to stay inside your house on furlough forever?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    DougSeal said:
    Well then some good will come out of it and we can get back to normal
    I return to my game theory joke.
    Yes I remember reading it and noting it . Very perceptive!
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
    Excess death figure.
    Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    If Corbyn were still around, Johnson would have got away with this.

    Unfortunately for Johnson, Starmer is - or seems to be - squeaky clean.

    Even then I'm not sure.

    "One rule for them, another rule for everyone else" is just so toxic, for a politician of any stripe, but for a Tory in particular.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    If Corbyn were still around, Johnson would have got away with this.

    Unfortunately for Johnson, Starmer is - or seems to be - squeaky clean.

    It’s not even that he’s squeaky clean, he made a few questionable decisions at the CPS, but that he plans out how to attack and thus how to win. Corbyn just tried to score points mindlessly. There was no direction to his questions, his strategy, he would say things without thinking. Starmer is just cleverer. Also more media savvy - could you see Corbyn talking to the Telegraph?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899

    Social distancing Guernsey style: (23 days no new cases, one remaining active case)

    The trouble is they can't stay isolated forever - what happens the second planes are flying in and out again with finance types from London every day?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Different social distancing rules around the world:

    WHO/Singapore: 1m
    Germany/Austria: 1.5m
    USA CDC / UK: 2m

    Wonder what the "Science" behind that is....

    I think its pretty obvious. 1m is probably the required amount for large droplets, but if you tell most people 1m, they will end up closer. Firstly, nobody takes a ruler will them and people always stretch the elastic. The 1.5 or 2m, which most people will take basically as better stay a fair diatance away, is clearly designed to try and ensure people end up 1m the vast majority of the time.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Evening all :)

    One or two people getting over-excited but it's not really the end for Boris Johnson just yet. If you want to see how a centre-right party leader gets thrown out, just ask Simon Bridges of New Zealand's National Party.

    A poll shows his Party 30 points behind Labour and the next night he is toppled in a putsch by a little known backbencher called Todd Muller. As it turned out, fear of losing your seat and your job is a far greater motivator than any notion of loyalty.

    Boris Johnson is nowhere near that now - IF the polls shift badly for the Conservatives and I'm talking about a consistent 15-20 point Labour lead, he will still be safe until some polling shows an alternative leader (Sunak, Patel, Gove?) doing much better. The bloc of 150 Conservative MPs who would lose to a Labour landslide will forget loyalty and who put them there if having another leader might save them.

    We are a long way from that as well.

    The movement in polls through the rest of the year and the huge round of Council elections next year will be vital. The County Council contests will be held from a very high Conservative base (the height of May's popularity) so losses are inevitable but how many and where will be vital.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
    Excess death figure.
    Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
    So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
    60K link please!
    Honestly anyone who thinks the mortality rate of covid -19 is over 1% at this stage is not keeping up
    Come on then. Show me your workings. Number of deaths divided by number of infections, multiplied by 100 to give a percentage.
    Well somebody more of less done it below but roughly

    6% of country infected so 3.6M

    Deaths due TO covid-19 (not WITH covid-19) - hard to say exactly but 25K? - even if all the official WITH deaths counted thats only 36K so 1% at most
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    Four legs good, two legs better.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    isam said:

    The detailed reasons why the SPI-B member is so angry need noting:

    https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21

    He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
    Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
    I’ve had plenty of enquiries from employers on this. Usually “x was supposed to be self isolating but y saw him at the park. Is that gross misconduct?” type of thing. So people are scared of the consequences of flouting the rules
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Dom is going to have to move his family to Durham for their own safety.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    Ave_it said:

    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
    Are
    Chris said:

    Ave_it said:

    Social distancing: down to 1m now please. In line with WHO requirements. Gives pubs restaurants cafés and other hospitality a chance.

    Then get rid of it entirely as soon as possible once we are in Level 2. People need to be given the choice to make their own risk assessment.

    You're doing a very good job of illustrating that people aren't capable of it.
    Are you one of those who want to stay inside your house on furlough forever?
    You're talking about abandoning the 2m distance. In fact, you want to abandon social distancing altogether.

    If we do that and go completely back to normal, what do you suppose is there to prevent the virus from spreading through 60% of the population? And how many people do you think would die if that happened?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,304
    Just back from a pleasant walk on Hampstead Heath. Not a lot of evidence of social distancing. Quite a bit of evidence of 'don't give a shit'. It's been a few weeks since I was in London so maybe things have been a lot looser down here than in Gloucestershire where I live now, but it may just be the Cummings fiasco is already having an impact.

    I should confess that I find his account implausible. It seems to me much more likely that when his wife got sick he didn't fancy looking after her and the little one on his own so found a more congenial solution involving his parents.

    Johnson performance this afternoon was abject. He had the chance to sack DC or at least explain why he didn't. He did neither. The airy waffle about 'reasonable parent' told us nothing and will have grated like hell with those who have ever experienced similar dilemmas.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172

    isam said:

    The detailed reasons why the SPI-B member is so angry need noting:

    https://twitter.com/reicherstephen/status/1264610669237862407?s=21

    He should have said "To show he is not above the law, Dom will be treated the same as any member of the public who broke the lockdown - £30 fine, doubled if not paid within a fortnight"
    Well quite. All the people yowling 'One rule for them!!' and demanding Cummings' dismissal might go a bit quiet and pale if all their lockdown etiquette was going to be assessed and they'd lose their main source of income if found wanting. They're not demanding he be treated the same, they're demanding he be treated worse. Very odd.
    Nope, those who set the rules (as Cummings did) really should be making sure they more than meet those rules otherwise they risk being caught out.

    Setting the rules and then wilfully and gleefully ignoring them isn't going to do you any favours.

    And in this case people will remember and it will live on. The labour party will be able to tug at this string for years to come and for a lot of people who have lost relatives it will be a heartfelt string.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Dom is going to have to move his family to Durham for their own safety.
    Not totally sure they'll get a warmer reception there.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Lockdown is over. People have - quite rightly - bent the rules. Time to be sensible and adopt a risk segmentation approach.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    @Stodge - yeah, polling could save Boris. But, I'd suggest if a poll comes out in the next few days showing something ridiculous like a 12-15 point swing in one go, that might be enough.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that
    Link please
    60K link please!
    Honestly anyone who thinks the mortality rate of covid -19 is over 1% at this stage is not keeping up
    Come on then. Show me your workings. Number of deaths divided by number of infections, multiplied by 100 to give a percentage.
    Well somebody more of less done it below but roughly

    6% of country infected so 3.6M

    Deaths due TO covid-19 (not WITH covid-19) - hard to say exactly but 25K? - even if all the official WITH deaths counted thats only 36K so 1% at most
    You are ignoring those who have died without being tested. The government scientists have repeatedly said that excess deaths is the best measure to use. And that is at least 60,000
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807

    Definitely agree we need to get back to normal . A huge overreaction the last few weeks . We know the mortality rate is well under 1% and that kids especially are not in any real danger . If people get indignant by Cummings and disobey lockdown rules then so much the better .

    So how do you come up with that bollocks of 'well under 1%'? With 60,000 plus deaths are you claiming over 10% of us have had it?
    err yeah? Antibody testing seems to suggest that .Also not sure where 60K deaths comes from?
    Excess death figure.
    Yes but some of those deaths are caused becasue of the lockdown not covid -19
    So you are ignoring the data because it doesn't back up your claim.
    No I am explaining it? Excess deaths do not equal covid-19 deaths . They will include a fair few who dies because they could not access (or were scared to ) access hospitals
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