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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    malcolmg said:

    Harry is really struggling on his own today.
    Tories = Fish
    PB = Barrel

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Nigelb said:

    Meat packing plants are clearly superspreader locations. Didn’t realise Germany had similar problems to the ones encountered in the US.

    Germany to reform meat industry after spate of Covid-19 cases
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/22/exploitative-conditions-germany-to-reform-meat-industry-after-spate-of-covid-19-cases

    I realise that there are a huge number of corone/covid stories out there, but I'm surprised the news has not been coverd much in the UK. This has been one of the top stories for the last 10 days or so in Germany.

    And I'm surprised to be honest that it has taken an outbreak for the press to run with this story. It does seem to be a one of those oha moments where people start saying "I like cheap meat, but not that cheap."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,506
    1979 General Election is up and running on BBC Parliament
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Scott_xP said:
    I heard he was up his mates Mums house having fish fingers for tea. Part time PM.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    malcolmg said:

    jog on loser
    Thanks, I’ve been for a run already this morning, and you’re right, it has been helping take the pounds off. Appreciate the encouragement! Will keep at it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,560

    I might even watch GMB next week. Morgan is going to destroy which ever sap from the government is on the 'sofa'.

    There won't be one; Parliament has risen for the Whitsun recess and 'no-one can be found'. Whoever is left in London will be dealing with 'urgent matters'.
    It'll all blow over.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Ave_it said:

    Are you on your second bottle already today Malcolm? 😄
    Jog on loser
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    stjohn said:

    Odds have shifted.

    Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook now go
    1/2 Remain
    6/4 Vote Leave.

    All sounds a bit familiar.

    Now PP/Betfair have 4/7, 5/4. Ladbrokes unchanged at 1/2, 6/4.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,087
    Scott_xP said:
    He does not work weekends or week days with a d in them
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    Jog on loser
    Love you too! ❤️
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,814
    edited May 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    That's a better approach than demanding a resignation.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    malcolmg said:

    Jog on loser
    Perhaps Ave It and myself should start a running club?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Fishing said:

    I agree.

    "Get Fit" would have been much better.

    That's the one thing that people can do to reduce their likelihood of dying from coronavirus, and be much less likely to suffer from a whole lot of other diseases as well.
    There was an interesting exchange yesterday where I asked a couple of fairly young PBers why they were worried about the risks of Covid-19, when the risks to them are absolutely tiny.

    They replied to the effect of that although they accepted their risks of dying were low, they thought their risks of hospitalisation were higher (implied moderate).

    Yet those risks are not moderate. They are also extremely low. The overwhelming majority of fit, healthy under 60s have no, few or mild symptoms, even in the unlikely event they catch it in the first place.

    Physical fitness is the key to this thing. Yet we have created a situation where people are terrified despite being at very low risk, as @Mysticrose says.

    @Black_Rook made the seemingly outrageous claim that more people have already died from falling down the stairs this year than fit and healthy under 40s from Covid-19. I have no idea if that’s true, but I suppose it might be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,560
    Scott_xP said:
    Given that questions are clearly 'approved', or at least known before being put and any hint of a hostile or even difficult supplementary is rapidly closed off it's highly unlikely that anything more will come out then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited May 2020
    Voters relationships have improved but they have gained weight.

    The government gets positive marks for reducing the spread and preventing the NHS being overwhelmed but negative marks for providing enough PPE and testing and on care homes.

    Sunak, Raab, Boris and Hancock all get net positive marks but Hunt, Gove and Patel net negatives.

    53% think the Government is reopening too fast, 30% about the right time, 11% too slowly

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349223/Coronaphobia-grips-nation-Britons-fear-lockdown-eased-rapidly.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    DougSeal said:

    Perhaps Ave It and myself should start a running club?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-World-Running-Club-post-apocalyptic/dp/1785032666
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    Voters relationship have improved but they have gained weight.

    The government gets positive marks for reducing the spread and preventing the NHS being overwhelmed but negative marks for providing enough PPE and testing.

    Sunak, Raab, Boris and Hancock all get net positive marks but Hunt, Gove and Patel net negatives.

    50% think the Government is reopening too fast, 30% about the right time, 11% too slowly

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349223/Coronaphobia-grips-nation-Britons-fear-lockdown-eased-rapidly.html

    Hunt?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    Alistair said:

    In a fair and just world this lay 12 hours or so would have ended LauraK's career as well as the uncritical mouthpiece of anonymous government sources.

    Yes. It's a scandal. If she wants to work for Johnson she should first leave the BBC.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,897
    I got a feeling there's a miracle due
    Gonna come true,
    Cummings to leave
    Could it be? Yes it could.
    Something's Cumming, something good
    If I can wait
    Something's Cumming

    Maybe tonight
    Maybe tonight
    Maybe tonight

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    DougSeal said:

    Perhaps Ave It and myself should start a running club?
    It's good to keep healthy so we can keep ahead of the likes of Malcolm!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    There was an interesting exchange yesterday where I asked a couple of fairly young PBers why they were worried about the risks of Covid-19, when the risks to them are absolutely tiny.

    They replied to the effect of that although they accepted their risks of dying were low, they thought their risks of hospitalisation were higher (implied moderate).

    Yet those risks are not moderate. They are also extremely low. The overwhelming majority of fit, healthy under 60s have no, few or mild symptoms, even in the unlikely event they catch it in the first place.

    Physical fitness is the key to this thing. Yet we have created a situation where people are terrified despite being at very low risk, as @Mysticrose says.

    @Black_Rook made the seemingly outrageous claim that more people have already died from falling down the stairs this year than fit and healthy under 40s from Covid-19. I have no idea if that’s true, but I suppose it might be.
    It’s likely. Roughly 700 people a year die falling down the stairs. (Roughly 250,000 need to go to A&E each year as a result of such a fall.)

    My number one health tip is: use the handrail. I’ve seen the aftermath of a fall of just three steps and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Now PP/Betfair have 4/7, 5/4. Ladbrokes unchanged at 1/2, 6/4.
    Odds 4:7, probability 7/11 Oh de corona!

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Scott_xP said:
    Sincerely, I think he should be given some latitude on his workload given his health. There are other sticks to attack him with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited May 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Hunt?
    Hunt has a rating of -4% compared to +5% for Boris and +37% for Sunak
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Ave_it said:

    It's good to keep healthy so we can keep ahead of the likes of Malcolm!
    It’s hard to keep ahead of the Bronzed Adonis that is Malc though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Where is the prime minister? Where is Dom? The scene inside Chequers...


    https://youtu.be/1Uvt83YWWWY
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513
    edited May 2020

    Germany is blaming cramped living conditions for abbatoir workers. We must hope it is not that the virus has spread to farm animals and then back to workers via aerosols from sawing carcasses.
    I'm sure we're amazed that the exploitation of migrants features in this story:

    Two Romanian former employees of a Bavarian slaughterhouse told the Guardian they were “not at all” surprised at the outbreaks.

    “There were houses where you could find even 20 people,” said *Alex. “It takes one asymptomatic person in one house to spread the virus to everyone else. You could not isolate alone in a packed house.”

    Bohl said the subcontractors often made extra money by renting out cheap buildings – such as former army barracks or office spaces – to a large number of workers.

    Former slaughterhouse worker *Lucas said that during his employment with a subcontractor there were sometimes as many as five people to a room and conditions were “terrible”. “In the first house we had cockroaches and mice and in the second house the room was full of mould and we had no heat – in November – until they brought an electric heater."

    According to Fair Mobility, shifts of 12–14 hours are not uncommon in the industry. Lucas said people were pressured by subcontractors to work beyond contracted hours or risk dismissal.

    “We were like modern slaves,” he said. “You weren’t allowed to get sick, if you got sick there was a very good chance you’d lose your job.”


    Remind me again about the EU and its 'level playing fields'.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    malcolmg said:

    A total con , at best he had some flu like symptoms, an absolute arsehole.
    Nothing about his "explanation" makes sense. If you're well enough to drive 350 miles up the M1 then you can probably park your kid in front of CBeebies for a couple of days while you lie in bed with the Lemsip. He should just fuck off while a modicum of his dignity remains, he's embarrassing himself now and damaging Johnson too.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732

    Given that questions are clearly 'approved', or at least known before being put and any hint of a hostile or even difficult supplementary is rapidly closed off it's highly unlikely that anything more will come out then.
    Nope, the 2 local journalists who have had questions both said they changed their questions after someone else beat them to it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Let’s put devoted father, Mr Cummings, aside for one moment.

    Sunak’s latest floated proposal - see here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/firms-must-start-paying-quarter-of-staff-wages-29lffbmk3?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter_101&utm_medium=email&utm_content=101_9479119&CMP=TNLEmail_118918_9479119_101 - is the death knell for the hospitality and many other industries.

    How on earth are businesses with no or very little income and legally unable to operate or expected to abide by “rules” which make their business untenable supposed to pay even a quarter of employees’ wages? Where is the money coming from?

    If this proposal goes through businesses will close, firms will go bankrupt and unemployment will rise.

    That is the outcome the government seems intent on procuring. Has it gone quite mad? Or is it too thick to understand? Or simply malicious?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. It's a scandal. If she wants to work for Johnson she should first leave the BBC.
    She is dire. It’s not so much her bias as the fact she is a completely incompetent journalist. I stopped watching Beeb news because of her years ago. Just risibly poor.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,560

    It’s likely. Roughly 700 people a year die falling down the stairs. (Roughly 250,000 need to go to A&E each year as a result of such a fall.)

    My number one health tip is: use the handrail. I’ve seen the aftermath of a fall of just three steps and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.
    It's why we moved to a bungalow as part of the retirement planning. Improperly fitted stair carpets don't help, either and rugs at the top of the stairs should be banned by law! (Yes, I realise that's a bit OTT!)
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    edited May 2020

    That's a better approach than demanding a resignation.
    SKS is bright enough to know how to make things really hard to deal with.

    A request for a resignation would be answered by a straight No, as with the PMQ questions, this is another trap.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It’s likely. Roughly 700 people a year die falling down the stairs. (Roughly 250,000 need to go to A&E each year as a result of such a fall.)

    My number one health tip is: use the handrail. I’ve seen the aftermath of a fall of just three steps and I wouldn’t wish that on anyone.
    “Roughly 250,000 need to go to A&E each year as a result of such a fall”

    That is an astounding figure. Goodness me.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,732
    Thinking back, didn't we have reports on here back in March that Cummings had gone back up North?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,560
    eek said:

    Nope, the 2 local journalists who have had questions both said they changed their questions after someone else beat them to it.
    Interesting, thanks.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    I'm sure we're amazed that the exploitation of migrants features in this story:

    Two Romanian former employees of a Bavarian slaughterhouse told the Guardian they were “not at all” surprised at the outbreaks.

    “There were houses where you could find even 20 people,” said *Alex. “It takes one asymptomatic person in one house to spread the virus to everyone else. You could not isolate alone in a packed house.”

    Bohl said the subcontractors often made extra money by renting out cheap buildings – such as former army barracks or office spaces – to a large number of workers.

    Former slaughterhouse worker *Lucas said that during his employment with a subcontractor there were sometimes as many as five people to a room and conditions were “terrible”. “In the first house we had cockroaches and mice and in the second house the room was full of mould and we had no heat – in November – until they brought an electric heater.”


    Remind me again about the EU and its 'level playing fields'.
    The meat industry is a hell hole everywhere. Not entirely surprising that an industry that is centred on industrial scale killing should also treat humans so badly too. Been a vegetarian for 32 years and never regretted it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    kinabalu said:

    Regardless of Cummings, there is IMO virtually no chance of a WTO Brexit. I predict an extension - perhaps dressed up as a "deal" for political cover.
    For a year maybe but the transition period will have to have been ended by the next general election or Leavers will start to defect back from the Tories to Farage and the Brexit Party again
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    I can hear it, Cummings on the air tonight, oh Lord
    And I've been waiting for this moment for all my life, oh Lord
    Can you hear it, Cummings on the air tonight, oh Lord, oh Lord
    Well if you told me he was driving, I would not understand
    How a trip up North’s okay my friend, but I don't know if you know who I am
    Well the cops were there and saw what he did, saw it with their own two eyes
    So you can wipe off that grin, we know where you've been
    It's all been a pack of lies...

    *DRUM SOLO*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    The meat industry is a hell hole everywhere. Not entirely surprising that an industry that is centred on industrial scale killing should also treat humans so badly too. Been a vegetarian for 32 years and never regretted it.
    Hitler was a vegetarian, it does not guarantee morality.

    There are also plenty of excellent organic farms producing meat
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    “Roughly 250,000 need to go to A&E each year as a result of such a fall”

    That is an astounding figure. Goodness me.
    As I said last week in my thread header, we assess risks by salience not likelihood.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,476
    Good morning, everyone.

    Off-topic reminder that SPFBO kicks off submissions today. Well worth a look, but be quick if you're entering a story:
    https://twitter.com/Mark__Lawrence/status/1259599723587080194

    Cummings should probably go. And probably won't.

    With the PM reportedly timid and vacillating, it could even make governance worse.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    The meat industry is a hell hole everywhere. Not entirely surprising that an industry that is centred on industrial scale killing should also treat humans so badly too. Been a vegetarian for 32 years and never regretted it.
    I’m not sure crop farming treats workers much better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,546
    Cummings can have no complaints. Unlike many in his position he seems to relish being the story rather than being invisible. He also surely knows that advisers are not indispensable and even if their boss thinks theyve done no wrong they can be sacrificed where a story about them is hurting that boss. He definitely should know about how to lose allies as a result of arrogance, allies who might have been useful in a difficult situation. Boris could push through this story, but is Dom worth so much?

    Thats the game.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s put devoted father, Mr Cummings, aside for one moment.

    Sunak’s latest floated proposal - see here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/firms-must-start-paying-quarter-of-staff-wages-29lffbmk3?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter_101&utm_medium=email&utm_content=101_9479119&CMP=TNLEmail_118918_9479119_101 - is the death knell for the hospitality and many other industries.

    How on earth are businesses with no or very little income and legally unable to operate or expected to abide by “rules” which make their business untenable supposed to pay even a quarter of employees’ wages? Where is the money coming from?

    If this proposal goes through businesses will close, firms will go bankrupt and unemployment will rise.

    That is the outcome the government seems intent on procuring. Has it gone quite mad? Or is it too thick to understand? Or simply malicious?

    I think it is fair. By August the number of businesses who cannot open at all should hopefully be very limited (if it isnt, then I think an extension of furlough is in order). Hospitality should be open by then with constraints. There will be limited revenue, sometimes severely but if they cant pay 25% of wages in August, they may not be able to for the next 2-3 years, how long can/should the govt subsidise?

    Once a pandemic hit, businesses closing, going bankrupt and unemployment rising was inevitable, the furlough scheme has always been about high levels of mitigation of the problem, not trying to avoid it happening.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    Hitler was a vegetarian, it does not guarantee morality.

    There are also plenty of excellent organic farms producing meat
    *“HITLER WAS A VEGETARIAN” KLAXON!*
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It's why we moved to a bungalow as part of the retirement planning. Improperly fitted stair carpets don't help, either and rugs at the top of the stairs should be banned by law! (Yes, I realise that's a bit OTT!)
    My lot are absolute buggers for leaving loose items on the landing. I’ve found all manner of potential hazards left there over the years. I’m now going to quote Alastair’s stats at them every time - it might change their ways!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    Sincerely, I think he should be given some latitude on his workload given his health. There are other sticks to attack him with.
    I have said for some time that Boris is not well and his reputation for going into hibernation is not helping. Cummings should go or be sacked but this is a bank holiday weekend and parliament is in recess so they may just ride it out.

    To me this is poor and is adding to the sense of drift at the top but maybe the comfort zone of an 80 seat majority gives them an arrogance that would not normally be there

    I have not been contributing much to PB recently as the same polarised arguments are on repeat and it does good just to step away from the keyboard and do something else

    This conservative is not content with the leadership, not because they cannot lead, but that they seem to have lost impetus and ambition.

    I hope Boris rediscovers his energy and profile soon otherwise maybe time to go on paternity leave
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    The Mail's poll only illustrates some of the massive disincentives the government itself has created against a v shaped recovery.

    We can add to those a list of nanny state restrictions, 14 day quarantines, 2m distancing, etc.etc.

    all of which adds up to the worst kind of economic cocktail. Forced destruction of businesses, huge spending on the least productive parts of society, substantial disincentives to economic revival.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    As I said last week in my thread header, we assess risks by salience not likelihood.
    I must admit I didn’t see your leader, Alastair. I’ll try to dig it out. In any case, the Covid fear exhibited by very low risk groups seems faintly ridiculous given the comparable risks of everyday happenstance.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    HYUFD said:

    Hunt has a rating of -4% compared to +5% for Boris and +37% for Sunak
    But he’s not in the cabinet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513
    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s put devoted father, Mr Cummings, aside for one moment.

    Sunak’s latest floated proposal - see here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/firms-must-start-paying-quarter-of-staff-wages-29lffbmk3?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter_101&utm_medium=email&utm_content=101_9479119&CMP=TNLEmail_118918_9479119_101 - is the death knell for the hospitality and many other industries.

    How on earth are businesses with no or very little income and legally unable to operate or expected to abide by “rules” which make their business untenable supposed to pay even a quarter of employees’ wages? Where is the money coming from?

    If this proposal goes through businesses will close, firms will go bankrupt and unemployment will rise.

    That is the outcome the government seems intent on procuring. Has it gone quite mad? Or is it too thick to understand? Or simply malicious?

    So what do you suggest ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    I have said for some time that Boris is not well and his reputation for going into hibernation is not helping. Cummings should go or be sacked but this is a bank holiday weekend and parliament is in recess so they may just ride it out.

    To me this is poor and is adding to the sense of drift at the top but maybe the comfort zone of an 80 seat majority gives them an arrogance that would not normally be there

    I have not been contributing much to PB recently as the same polarised arguments are on repeat and it does good just to step away from the keyboard and do something else

    This conservative is not content with the leadership, not because they cannot lead, but that they seem to have lost impetus and ambition.

    I hope Boris rediscovers his energy and profile soon otherwise maybe time to go on paternity leave
    Id forgotten about the paternity, another reason why attacking his workload feels wrong when there are so many other faults.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    algarkirk said:

    He is damaged, that's beyond doubt. But the discussion has problems. There is a huge contrast between the requirements of the regulations in March and the advice or rhetoric of government. For example there was and is no legal requirement about social distancing. All of that is advisory and unenforceable, just as, wrongly, there was no rule prohibiting dad dancing to Abba. The one and only test for leaving your home is 'reasonable excuse'.

    In the list of examples in the 2020 CV regulations (sec 6) there are general example'excuses' about medical need, ministers going to their church, shopping for necessities, exercise and all sorts. But there is no general 'excuse' provision in the examples for 'the needs of child care'; except very narrow ones. There should have been.

    Back In the real world for millions of people when schools and nurseries are closed, adults are working in odd and fragmented ways, and sometimes people have got or may have the virus the actual demands of child care is the absolute number one priority overriding all others.

    If I were responsible for a child and were ill in ways that meant I could not rely on looking after it, or thought there was a real risk that I could not, I would take whatever steps necessary for the child regardless of the consequences.

    If that is the case I have sympathy for Dominic and family. But the Abba dancing is a problem.

    Some of the narrow examples are actually quite broad. There is a general proviso that it is OK to leave the house to avoid harm and harm is not defined..

    As any parent knows if a child needs childcare and its not provided there is a very serious risk of harm. Would it be acceptable for a healthy parent to go on holiday for a week leaving young children unsupervised at home for a week? Of course not, that would be neglect and endanger the safety of the child.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Sunak's popularity shows us that what the British people really value is their money and their lifestyle, despite all the garbage that's spouted about a new community spirit , the wonders of the NHS front line worker etc etc.

    In the autumn, the British people will have neither money nor lifestyle, with little promise of either for the foreseeable future.

    Kaboom.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,954

    There was an interesting exchange yesterday where I asked a couple of fairly young PBers why they were worried about the risks of Covid-19, when the risks to them are absolutely tiny.

    They replied to the effect of that although they accepted their risks of dying were low, they thought their risks of hospitalisation were higher (implied moderate).

    Yet those risks are not moderate. They are also extremely low. The overwhelming majority of fit, healthy under 60s have no, few or mild symptoms, even in the unlikely event they catch it in the first place.

    Physical fitness is the key to this thing. Yet we have created a situation where people are terrified despite being at very low risk, as @Mysticrose says.

    @Black_Rook made the seemingly outrageous claim that more people have already died from falling down the stairs this year than fit and healthy under 40s from Covid-19. I have no idea if that’s true, but I suppose it might be.
    I could well believe it, as under 400 people under 45 have died in total, and I dare say most of them were not fit and healthy.

    The fact is while this disease is a bit of a bugger at that age, losing your job and being plunged into a global recession that will reduce your standard of living for many years and possibly even shorten your life overall due to reduced healthcare funding is rather more serious.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    Foxy said:

    Nah. The pantomime negotiations are just for a domestic show. The whole cabinet was appointed because they were willing to go to No Deal Brexit. Indeed most are enthusiastic for it.
    I foresee a Deal which is branded as a "Phased Divergence".

    Phase One to commence 1st Jan 2021. End of Free Movement and perhaps something on the Fish. A few other bits and pieces. All else pretty much the same.

    Target date of 31st Dec 2021 to negotiate Phase Two - which will involve diverging in all areas where a compromise can be found between the EU's need to protect the Single Market and the UK's need to appear to be regaining sovereignty.

    Phase Two will in practice lead to consolidated and permanent close alignment or will be further delayed using a similar presentational tactic.

    I have analyzed the politics of the situation and the above sequence is what I can assure people will happen. I'm as sure of this as I am that the lead singer of Spandau Ballet was Tony Hedley.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The ratio on this is huge:

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/1263946046436184064?s=21

    And it, and the comments under it, demonstrate the size of the government’s problem. People are genuinely seething.

    Disclosure: I have visited my mum a couple of times, maintaining social distancing at all times. Neither of us were symptomatic and we waited until I had not been in London for weeks before I first saw her. I absolutely do not regret our choices.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206
    tlg86 said:

    I’m not sure crop farming treats workers much better.
    Aren't we recruiting Romanian fruit pickers to live in barracks?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513
    HYUFD said:

    Voters relationships have improved but they have gained weight.

    The government gets positive marks for reducing the spread and preventing the NHS being overwhelmed but negative marks for providing enough PPE and testing and on care homes.

    Sunak, Raab, Boris and Hancock all get net positive marks but Hunt, Gove and Patel net negatives.

    53% think the Government is reopening too fast, 30% about the right time, 11% too slowly

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349223/Coronaphobia-grips-nation-Britons-fear-lockdown-eased-rapidly.html

    What should be polled is:

    How much extra tax are you willing to pay in order to stay under lockdown for longer ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206
    DougSeal said:

    *“HITLER WAS A VEGETARIAN” KLAXON!*
    I belive Stalin rather liked a good steak, and Mao was fond of suckling pig...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Id forgotten about the paternity, another reason why attacking his workload feels wrong when there are so many other faults.
    Perhaps number 10 should have a quiet word with the Coronavirus ask it to lay off for a few weeks until the government is ready to face it again.

    If Boris needs a break, he should take it. Frankly Raab was better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,088

    And it, and the comments under it, demonstrate the size of the government’s problem. People are genuinely seething.

    "Rules don't apply to the Metropolitan Elite" is a winner in the Red Wall seats...
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Cyclefree said:

    Let’s put devoted father, Mr Cummings, aside for one moment.

    Sunak’s latest floated proposal - see here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/firms-must-start-paying-quarter-of-staff-wages-29lffbmk3?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=newsletter_101&utm_medium=email&utm_content=101_9479119&CMP=TNLEmail_118918_9479119_101 - is the death knell for the hospitality and many other industries.

    How on earth are businesses with no or very little income and legally unable to operate or expected to abide by “rules” which make their business untenable supposed to pay even a quarter of employees’ wages? Where is the money coming from?

    If this proposal goes through businesses will close, firms will go bankrupt and unemployment will rise.

    That is the outcome the government seems intent on procuring. Has it gone quite mad? Or is it too thick to understand? Or simply malicious?

    Sorry are you only just working this total sh8tshow now? LOL
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,954

    The ratio on this is huge:

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/1263946046436184064?s=21

    And it, and the comments under it, demonstrate the size of the government’s problem. People are genuinely seething.

    Disclosure: I have visited my mum a couple of times, maintaining social distancing at all times. Neither of us were symptomatic and we waited until I had not been in London for weeks before I first saw her. I absolutely do not regret our choices.

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    kinabalu said:

    I foresee a Deal which is branded as a "Phased Divergence".

    Phase One to commence 1st Jan 2021. End of Free Movement and perhaps something on the Fish. A few other bits and pieces. All else pretty much the same.

    Target date of 31st Dec 2021 to negotiate Phase Two - which will involve diverging in all areas where a compromise can be found between the EU's need to protect the Single Market and the UK's need to appear to be regaining sovereignty.

    Phase Two will in practice lead to consolidated and permanent close alignment or will be further delayed using a similar presentational tactic.

    I have analyzed the politics of the situation and the above sequence is what I can assure people will happen. I'm as sure of this as I am that the lead singer of Spandau Ballet was Tony Hedley.
    Ah! But how do you pronounce Tony Hadley?

    https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1263375827212947456
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What should be polled is:

    How much extra tax are you willing to pay in order to stay under lockdown for longer ?
    I'm far from convinced there will be any meaningful economic damage from staying longer, if it means eliminating the virus better.

    The better the virus is eliminated, the better we can get back to normal after lockdown, the better the recover economic recovery.

    Worst case scenario for me economically is we go through lockdown, come out of it with the virus still uncontainable. That way we have the worst of both - the costs of an enforced lockdown and the costs of the population staying at home and refusing to spend in the economy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Id forgotten about the paternity, another reason why attacking his workload feels wrong when there are so many other faults.
    If he's not being the full time Prime Minister of the country I would like to know what his actual schedule is.

    If he is being the full time prime minister then his complete invisibility is up for debate.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:
    This was the subject of my second question last night. If Dominic Cummings’ choices changed government guidance, all hell is going to break loose.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206
    Scott_xP said:

    "Rules don't apply to the Metropolitan Elite" is a winner in the Red Wall seats...
    It isn't a problem if you can go and stay in the family castle surely....
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    So what do you suggest ?
    What I suggest is that somebody is finally honest with the British people about the choice they actually face, and have always actually faced.

    Open society up, isolate the vulnerable as much as we can and live with Corona

    or

    Complete economic and probably social meltdown.

    The government has spent fortunes avoiding that choice. Somebody needs to make it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    kyf_100 said:

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
    It’s the top story on commercial local radio round here. Unless you are suggesting that the general public don’t listen to commercial local radio...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    kyf_100 said:

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
    People who make the law have to set an example. One of the privileges of office.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790
    HYUFD said:

    For a year maybe but the transition period will have to have been ended by the next general election or Leavers will start to defect back from the Tories to Farage and the Brexit Party again
    Please see my predicted "PHASED DIVERGENCE" Deal.

    An extension without an extension.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,506
    kyf_100 said:

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
    This is not a non-story. You'll see in next two days.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206
    kyf_100 said:

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
    Dom didn't break lockdown, he broke quarantine.

    Lockdown is for the well, quarantine is for the sick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited May 2020
    DougSeal said:

    But he’s not in the cabinet.
    He was the Health Secretary before when early pandemic preparations were made and he is chairman of the Health select committee
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Jonathan said:

    Perhaps number 10 should have a quiet word with the Coronavirus ask it to lay off for a few weeks until the government is ready to face it again.

    If Boris needs a break, he should take it. Frankly Raab was better.
    Im not saying dont attack the government or the PM at all. I do both myself.

    I am saying attacking a man who has recently been in intensive care and delayed taking his paternity leave for not being able to commit as many hours to the job as normal is a very cheap shot.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    This is very true. Starmer’s career was built on asking difficult questions and not getting riled up by he opposition.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    Scott_xP said:
    Actually that plan has 75% support with just 11% against in today's poll and with 77% saying they would not go on a foreign holiday

    Covid has seriously scared people and made them very risk averse
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,143
    Foxy said:

    I belive Stalin rather liked a good steak, and Mao was fond of suckling pig...
    There are accounts from Yalta of the huge feasts laid on by Stalin, served by emaciated Russian waiters.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    kyf_100 said:

    The mistake of assuming that twitter = the general public.

    It's a very small cross section of mostly anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people who are clearly not Dom's natural constituency.

    While my friends skew youngish (20s,30s,40s) and very middle class, I would say that every one of them has broken lockdown by this point.

    That's why this is a non-story. About half the country have either broken lockdown themselves or can't wait for it to be over.

    It's a small vocal minority that are pushing for Dom's scalp, because he's a Tory and he was the architect of the leave campaign.

    This has nothing to do with lockdown. That's just their latest excuse.
    Is it because they are "anti-Tory, pro-remain, highly politically engaged people"?
    Couldn't it be because they resent the 'do as I say, not as I do' attitude and the hypocrisy of someone suffering with Covid-19 breaking their own restrictions?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    So this week we discovered we have a government that wanted to charge some NHS workers whilst it swanned off around the country regardless of its own rules.

    Not the best of weeks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Please see my predicted "PHASED DIVERGENCE" Deal.

    An extension without an extension.
    Not possible, the EU have basically said the UK must stay in the single market in all but name for a FTA and Barnier has ruled out an 'a la carte' approach
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    There was an interesting exchange yesterday where I asked a couple of fairly young PBers why they were worried about the risks of Covid-19, when the risks to them are absolutely tiny.

    They replied to the effect of that although they accepted their risks of dying were low, they thought their risks of hospitalisation were higher (implied moderate).

    Yet those risks are not moderate. They are also extremely low. The overwhelming majority of fit, healthy under 60s have no, few or mild symptoms, even in the unlikely event they catch it in the first place.

    Physical fitness is the key to this thing. Yet we have created a situation where people are terrified despite being at very low risk, as @Mysticrose says.

    @Black_Rook made the seemingly outrageous claim that more people have already died from falling down the stairs this year than fit and healthy under 40s from Covid-19. I have no idea if that’s true, but I suppose it might be.
    What are the risks of hospitalisation for a mid-forties male, then? In percentage terms.

    Higher or lower than, say, 4%?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,790

    She is dire. It’s not so much her bias as the fact she is a completely incompetent journalist. I stopped watching Beeb news because of her years ago. Just risibly poor.
    I used to find her OK but when I started to pay attention and have a proper think about it I changed my mind. Her bias during the GE was quite risible. And since then she has appeared at times to be almost owned by number 10.
This discussion has been closed.