politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls aren’t moving but Labour shouldn’t be too concerned
Comments
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I understand that murderers in the drug trade are badly hit.Icarus said:
Of just prostitution- shoplifters and burglArs are having a tough time too. No handouts for themThomasNashe said:
These are tough times for the prostitution industry, and I think we should all pay a little more respect to a man public-spirited enough to want to do his bit to help out.FrancisUrquhart said:Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker says he feels he is "being harassed" after it was reported he had broken social distancing rules again.
Can't a man have a sex party during lockdown without attracting criticism...its just plain harassment is what it is.1 -
An excellent analysis by Southam.
This is a moment in time to be in opposition rather than in government. During this chaotic time governments will be damned if they do and damned if they don't.
The recriminations over late lockdown, not unlocking early enough, unlocking too early, too little, too late testing, massaged testing figures, too little PPE, care homes, staff duty of care, all fall at the door of government. Now they may have been inch perfect in their execution of pandemic policy (they haven't) they will still incurr the wrath of the public when the post-pandemic. And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...1 -
He lives by a code of undocumented procedures.Sunil_Prasannan said:
He's adept in alg-her-bra?ydoethur said:
He’s been fiddling Staats though.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not sure why the government get blamed for "Ferguson". Even though his code / model are out dated, he is the countries leading expert on this and has been called upon by governments of all shades.IshmaelZ said:
Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.MaxPB said:
Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.IshmaelZ said:I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.
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Wilson won a majority of just 4 seats and Home won a majority of English seats in 1964stodge said:
Did for Wilson in 1964 after 13 years of Conservative rule.HYUFD said:
Did not for Kinnock in 1992 after 13 years of Tory rule, though he made gains, did for Cameron in 2010 after 13 years of Labour rule but still not enough for a Tory majoritySean_F said:
I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
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I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
It is a big ask. However my take on GE19 is that two factors - Brexit and Corbyn - were the most influential in the Cons favour. Neither of these will be relevant next time.Slackbladder said:
They might get to a hung parliment. But I can't see overturning a 80 seat majority to another majority in one sitting. Not unless they change the situation in Scotland, which doesn't look like it's happening anytime soon, unless the SNP implode.kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
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I'm the opposite, not a good non fiction reader, but have made an effort this year Lockdown stuff.state_go_away said:What's everyone reading during lockdown ? I am not a great fiction reader but read some non fiction in the last 7 weeks including
The Games - David Goldblatt (history of the Olympics)
The Crucibles greatest matches -Hector Nunns (I love snooker and any "pub" game)
Who dares wins -Dominic Sandbrook (Britain 1979-1982)
The medal factory - About British Cycling and its recent triumphs and tribulations.
A better betting with a decent fellow - A social history of Bookmaking
A short history of Europe - Simon Jenkins
A short history of London -Simon Jenkins
Ghosts at the table - a history of poker
Airhead -Emily Maitliss
Quite proud of myself even if all on my sort of hobbies!
Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13000 years - Jared Diamond
Worth dying for: The power and politics of flags - Tim Marshall
National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy - Matthew Goodwin and Roger Watwell
Factfulness: Ten reasons we're wrong about the world, and why things are better than you think
The English and their history -Robert Tombs
SPQR - Mary Beard
The wars of the roses: the key players in the struggle for supremacy - Matthew Lewis1 -
Uh no they have not.Philip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.
Osborne cut the 50% top rate of income tax back to 45% and Osborne also cut inheritance tax for wealthy couples and their children.
He imposed a non dom levy, that was it
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I am fairly appalled at those arguing against celebrating VE Day. The Nazis were the most terrible regime in human history. The only reason their death tolls weren't vastly more than their already staggering killings was because they were defeated. That defeat saved hundreds of millions from being slaughtered.
As a Jewish man, I think it appalling that the end of the extermination of my race is no big deal to some people.1 -
Yes, it would be most convenient if Labour can exploit the aftermath of a pandemic to take power. Hard to see them doing it any other way.Mexicanpete said:
And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...
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I think a lot of the argument is against being pressured into 'celebrating' in a particular way which seems rather against the spirit of what is being commemorated. It's not called poppy fascism for nothing.Gabs3 said:I am fairly appalled at those arguing against celebrating VE Day. The Nazis were the most terrible regime in human history. The only reason their death tolls weren't vastly more than their already staggering killings was because they were defeated. That defeat saved hundreds of millions from being slaughtered.
As a Jewish man, I think it appalling that the end of the extermination of my race is no big deal to some people.1 -
Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely loseMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.1 -
ydoethur said:
You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
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It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong0 -
A problem facing the government is that a lot of tax is raised from high earners. They may be disproportionately hit by this. But as you say, it’s a problem for Labour. It’s no good claiming that “ordinary people” can be shielded from this.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.1 -
Writing off Labour is always the sensible course.1
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Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.HYUFD said:
Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely loseMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
It is still the ruling party though as it froze council tax, it did not raise itkle4 said:
Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.HYUFD said:
Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely loseMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
Doesn't feel like 14 years, too discontinuous. Not like 1997 or 2010.kinabalu said:
Yes indeed - it will be time for a change.Sean_F said:
I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
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Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.0 -
Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?0
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The issue with Israel is quite simple -DecrepiterJohnL said:
Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.ydoethur said:
Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.ydoethur said:
It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).Pulpstar said:
Was last night a slip up ?Sandpit said:His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)
The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".
Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.
- Benjamin Netanyahu is a POS and his policies are wrong to the point of being evil. Not antisemitic.
- The Jews are evil colonialists and need to get what is coming to them. anti-semitic
Part of the problem is that throughout the Arab - and much of the larger Muslim world - antisemitism has been preached by the dictatorial states since WWII.
So people coming from such countries have been immersed in "The Jews do X" all their lives.
It is quite entertaining (as someone with Jewish heritage) to hear interviews in such parts of the world. When the subject gets onto Israel - the speaker will often make statements about "The Jews". Which when translated on the subtitles get bowdlerised and the identifier changed to Israel
This stuff has then filtered into the political discourse here. Partly to do with people not pushing back against people with a better score on the Identity Matrix.
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Which makes him secure for the full term, but good or bad response being PM during this will make holding harder, though it still starts from a strong position.MaxPB said:
Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.IshmaelZ said:I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.
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His Leader ratings with BMG were OK, if we keep an eye on the Ipsos Mori ones they might tell us a story. Blair followed on from John Smith who did a lot of work!HYUFD said:What should worry Labour is the last 2 leaders of the opposition to lead their parties into Government in the last 25 years ie Tony Blair and David Cameron, both took poll leads for their party straight after being elected party leader. Starmer however is seeing Labour currently polling no better than the Tories were under IDS was when he was elected Tory leader in similar circumstances in 2001 as 9/11 overshadowed his election as Covid overshadowed Starmer's election.
However events could still change things as the Iraq War cut Blair's poll lead drastically from 2003 as the impact of Covid and hard Brexit and the end of the transition period in December could slash Boris' poll lead0 -
Good post. Interesting to see how SKS plays it.Mexicanpete said:
An excellent analysis by Southam.
This is a moment in time to be in opposition rather than in government. During this chaotic time governments will be damned if they do and damned if they don't.
The recriminations over late lockdown, not unlocking early enough, unlocking too early, too little, too late testing, massaged testing figures, too little PPE, care homes, staff duty of care, all fall at the door of government. Now they may have been inch perfect in their execution of pandemic policy (they haven't) they will still incurr the wrath of the public when the post-pandemic. And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...0 -
On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target2 -
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
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It was a fun little book, though not as great as Prisoners of Geography. I like his style - at one point he talks about a flag which went away after Charles I' execution and then says x years later one made a comeback, and it wasn't the headless Charles. I like quirk like that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?
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Essential businesses....
California identifies nail salons as source of coronavirus community spread
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-california-identifies-nail-salons-as-source-of-spread-gov-newsom-says.html
Other states haven’t been as cautions when it comes to reopening personal care locations like nail salons. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced earlier this week hair and nail salons, barber shops and tanning salons will be allowed to reopen with modifications on Friday. ...0 -
I have read both books - Prisoners of Geography more suited my tastes as more about pragmatic geopolitics wheras Power of Flags book more about emotional geopolitics. Both good though if interested in geopolitics as I am and think many on this forum would be as wellMorris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?
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It's a rural unitary authority they will always be the ruling party and we all know national party situations have a big impact on local elections. The point was you cannot point to a single policy of a council group and decide that will swing it, and while not raising council tax will probably help more than it hurts, it may not be as hugely effective as you think when plenty of people will act as though it was raised even when it wasn't. Same way people will talk about the massive salaries of councillors with no conception of the amount of allowances and expenses. You'd think doing away with that entirely - which is not a good idea - would pay for everything in a council to hear many tell it, it's the local version of bankers bonuses.HYUFD said:
It is still the ruling party though as it froze council tax, it did not raise itkle4 said:
Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.HYUFD said:
Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely loseMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
The NHS app issue follows a traditional British failing in government.Charles said:
I think you are being unfairIshmaelZ said:
Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.MaxPB said:
Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.IshmaelZ said:I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.
1. Care homes - that was either an oversight or a deliberate consequence of a desire to protect capacity in the NHS at all costs. It’s fair to blame the government. But it’s interesting that every other government made the same choice
2. Late lockdown - he followed the guidance from SAGE. That’s the right thing to do.
3. Turkish PPE - until you have it you can’t test it. I’d rather money was wasted buying stuff on spec than not having enough. Has any hospital *actually* run out of PPE?
4. Ferguson. Why is one mans inability to keep his duck in his pants and his willingness to break the rules the governments fault? 😏
5. NHS App. haven’t followed the story closely enough. But if it’s no good then that is blameworthy
I don’t see 5 as being more than a Hancock level issue. 1 might be, depending on the fact pattern
1) Create a specification based on a wish list from everyone, technical and non-technical.
2) Put out a tender on that basis.
3) Demand "The entire spec, nothing less"
4) Comedy ensues.
What is missing in that process is the concept of Feature Cost. What does requirement X cost?
A classic example of this is why the British Army is virtually the last on the planet with rifled tank guns.Or TSR2. Or the complete failure since WWII to create a large airborne early warning radar.0 -
Never been a hindrance to anyone posting previously.MattW said:I could have that wrong.
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If the Tories fail to win a majority again I would expect the LDs to be the biggest gainers, at least on voteshare.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
Tory Remainers are more likely to vote LD than Labour, even if it is no longer a Corbyn led Labour Party1 -
I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
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Mr. kle4/Mr. Away, cheers for those answers.
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50 (Finnish) scientists and experts reject Government's 'hybrid strategy'
https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/an-open-letter-from-50-researchers-and-experts-to-government/20200508135537005709.html
... According to the letter, in Finland, a moderately good infection situation has been achieved in two months. This advantage must not be lost.
The researchers said that, once the number of infections has been reduced and the testing capacity and infection surveillance are secured, individual cases and chains of infection can be easily traced and eradicated.
The letter stressed that suppression is not only a precautionary principle but also the only ethically sustainable option.
In the light of medical ethics and human rights, deaths must be prevented, not just slowed down, these experts argue.
With the suppression, researchers believe economic activity would rise and life would return close to normal....1 -
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.0 -
Unusually a sensible comment I can agree withbigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
I think making predictions now in our current situation is fraught with difficulty and are little more than each person's wishful thinking. On a slightly longer perspective I am reminded that Labour's last great leader was Blair in 1997 who won big on a promise [not kept I hasten to add] to be almost as blue as the true ones. I'm not sure that Starmer is anywhere near as moderate in his views. Of course these are different times but remembering Brown, Miliband and Corbyn - Starmer is clearly different from the last one but his instincts for me are way too left-wing. So far he is allowing the lunatic fringe voices in the Parliamentary party far too much leeway. We will see.0 -
No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.contrarian said:0 -
Again, ridiculous to pretend this has anything to do with leave and remain. It will be purely to do with how old people are.HYUFD said:
It does actually to some degree.Philip_Thompson said:
Brexit has square root of nothing to do with it.HYUFD said:
Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.stodge said:I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.
I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.
Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.
Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.
I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.
The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis and the end of one of the worst evils the world has ever seen. Today's mundane international politics isn't relevant.
80% of Leavers think it is right to celebrate VE Day but only 61% of Remainers do
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/arts/survey-results/daily/2020/04/29/70023/1?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Daily_Questions&utm_campaign=Question_2
Nothing wrong with commemorating the end of the war (in Europe) on the 75th anniversary.
It's the inability of some people to stop talking about the war, making silly comparisons of everything with the blitz or d-day or Dunkirk, on every single other day of the last 75 years that is infantile and wrong.2 -
Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.stodge said:
Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?HYUFD said:
Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.
The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.0 -
Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.
In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.
*Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.2 -
Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)Philip_Thompson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.1 -
Not quite as good as the pub, but indeed a predictable change to be announced by Boris on Sundaykinabalu said:
No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.contrarian said:0 -
Interesting jobs report from the US
unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%
Almost 20m jobs lost
At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.
almost 8% year on year.
Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.
0 -
Plant life everywhere will welcome it.kinabalu said:
No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.contrarian said:
And it’s good news for the products of garden centres too...
(This is a joke, OK? I am not suggesting people who frequent garden centres are plant life.)0 -
Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.ydoethur said:
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.0 -
Yes, that's exactly what I said. Hold on, no it isn't. It's almost the opposite.Philip_Thompson said:
So not using the y-word means you're not an anti-Semite? Low bar you're setting there.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.ydoethur said:
Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.ydoethur said:
It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).Pulpstar said:
Was last night a slip up ?Sandpit said:His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)
The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".
Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.
I suppose maybe Jews just needed to get a better understanding of English irony ...0 -
I bet when Captain Tom appeared on Blankety Blank in 1982 he never thought he would outlive Terry Wogan .DecrepiterJohnL said:
Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.stodge said:
Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?HYUFD said:
Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.
The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.0 -
I was feeling depressed about the NHS COVID-19 app based on reading some comments here plus some other on-line articles.
On reading these very authoritative analyses https://reincubate.com/blog/staying-alive-covid-19-background-tracing/ https://reincubate.com/blog/nhs-covid-19-background-tracing-details/ plus the Git comments on the keep alive issue https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/2 I feel a bit more optimistic.0 -
If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.Carnyx said:
Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.ydoethur said:
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.0 -
And the Turks, in Mespot and so on.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.stodge said:
Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?HYUFD said:
Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.
The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.
I wonder if the more important [edit] Eastern visitors on the Western Front were the Chinese noncombatants?0 -
Boris would have beaten Sturgeon UK wide last timeydoethur said:
If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.Carnyx said:
Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.ydoethur said:
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.1 -
Actually, my point stands - the LDs aren't a national party either, and nor are Labour, if we apply your criteria, as they don't stand in all four nations of the UK.ydoethur said:
If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.Carnyx said:
Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.ydoethur said:
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.0 -
Longer term, we can almost certainly forget about tax cuts. Tax rises to be avoided but only if the public finances allow - is more how I would put it.Philip_Thompson said:
I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
0 -
If that's the case then I'm very glad Epping Forest doesn't reflect the nation as a whole.HYUFD said:
Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)Philip_Thompson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
Indeed. The hard part if you've been doing this for decades is buying a Tardis to go back and not do it. That was Corbyn's problem -- he'd spent decades doing things that did not used to be considered antisemitic but now are.kle4 said:ydoethur said:
You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
.
It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong0 -
2005 Blair 35.2%ydoethur said:
Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.
In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.
*Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
2010 Brown 29.0%
2015 EICIPM 30.4%
2017 Jezza 40.0%
2019 Jezza 32.2%
I think SKS will get 33% to 38%
Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 20170 -
Well that is true, Epping Forest voted over 60% Tory last year and even voted Tory in 1997 and 2001. Labour only won Epping when it included Harlow and Chingford briefly in 1945, 1964 and 1966Philip_Thompson said:
If that's the case then I'm very glad Epping Forest doesn't reflect the nation as a whole.HYUFD said:
Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)Philip_Thompson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.0 -
That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.0 -
If we lose again - which we won't - we would need to have a long hard think about what the party is for.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target0 -
I think you are correctHYUFD said:
If the Tories fail to win a majority again I would expect the LDs to be the biggest gainers, at least on voteshare.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
Tory Remainers are more likely to vote LD than Labour, even if it is no longer a Corbyn led Labour Party2 -
HYUFD said:
Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)Philip_Thompson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.MikeSmithson said:
I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quotePhilip_Thompson said:
The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.HYUFD said:
Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the richtlg86 said:An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?
But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.
I for one admire you for continuing to support immigration from Eastern Europe, your disappointment that the jurisdiction of the ECJ in some circumstances over us might be about to end, and your belief that a common set of trading rules across Europe is by far the most sensible arrangement between us and our nearest trading partners.0 -
Throw up.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.0 -
And it's the day after VE day.....Documentary on German fortifications in the Channel Islands - more heavy artillery there than in all of Normandy - and nearly half the concrete of the Atlantic Wall.stodge said:
Liberation Day is an annual public holiday in the Channel Islands.RobD said:
VE day isn't normally a bank holiday. It was for the 75th anniversary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSc_u2a5O_I0 -
Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.
Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.0 -
332 new deaths
Still 88 from March in there.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-daily-announced-deaths-8-May-2020.xlsx0 -
That part of media history did pass me by, I must admit. Wandering off-topic, I do recall Wogan with a children's choir singing Christmas carols, with the organist, who had his back to the camera the whole time, being Dudley Moore. You'd not see that these days.state_go_away said:
I bet when Captain Tom appeared on Blankety Blank in 1982 he never thought he would outlive Terry Wogan .DecrepiterJohnL said:
Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.stodge said:
Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?HYUFD said:
Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.
The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.0 -
How do you define lose?kinabalu said:
If we lose again - which we won't - we would need to have a long hard think about what the party is for.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
What would be success?0 -
It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).bigjohnowls said:
2005 Blair 35.2%ydoethur said:
Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.
In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.
*Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
2010 Brown 29.0%
2015 EICIPM 30.4%
2017 Jezza 40.0%
2019 Jezza 32.2%
I think SKS will get 33% to 38%
Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.
How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.0 -
It would be much better if VAT was temporarily reduced than income tax, as this will help those unemployed, low income or furloughed and will stimulate spending more.Philip_Thompson said:
I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
0 -
Re 1. I think your opinion that every other government had made the same choice, i.e. releasing CV-positive patients from hospitals back to care homes, is very interesting, indeed. That's not was has been happening here. What "fact pattern" have you recognised to arrive at this very interesting opinion?Charles said:
I think you are being unfairIshmaelZ said:
Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.MaxPB said:
Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.IshmaelZ said:I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.
1. Care homes - that was either an oversight or a deliberate consequence of a desire to protect capacity in the NHS at all costs. It’s fair to blame the government. But it’s interesting that every other government made the same choice
2. Late lockdown - he followed the guidance from SAGE. That’s the right thing to do.
3. Turkish PPE - until you have it you can’t test it. I’d rather money was wasted buying stuff on spec than not having enough. Has any hospital *actually* run out of PPE?
4. Ferguson. Why is one mans inability to keep his duck in his pants and his willingness to break the rules the governments fault? 😏
5. NHS App. haven’t followed the story closely enough. But if it’s no good then that is blameworthy
I don’t see 5 as being more than a Hancock level issue. 1 might be, depending on the fact pattern0 -
A reasonable point, to which I would answer however that their association short of Union with the SDLP and Alliance parties makes them parties with at least a national outlook.Carnyx said:
Actually, my point stands - the LDs aren't a national party either, and nor are Labour, if we apply your criteria, as they don't stand in all four nations of the UK.ydoethur said:
If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.Carnyx said:
Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.ydoethur said:
Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?MattW said:Excellent header.
For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
And on a more pertinent point, the SNP don’t even pretend to aspire to national government. They are only interested in Scotland.0 -
Definitely not - you get a nicer type of person there than in most commercial premises. Than in Gyms, for example. Or Gastropubs.ydoethur said:
Plant life everywhere will welcome it.kinabalu said:
No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.contrarian said:
And it’s good news for the products of garden centres too...
(This is a joke, OK? I am not suggesting people who frequent garden centres are plant life.)0 -
Quite funny, what I've said about Starmer is opinion, the other three is factkinabalu said:
Throw up.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.0 -
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
1 -
Er - no. I am not accepting that. Associating with Paul Eisen is definitely anti-Semitic and that was obvious to anyone, even somebody with the intellect of a dead stoat. He claims he did not know Eisen was a Holocaust denier, which must be the most unconvincing lie since David Lloyd George made his wedding vows.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Indeed. The hard part if you've been doing this for decades is buying a Tardis to go back and not do it. That was Corbyn's problem -- he'd spent decades doing things that did not used to be considered antisemitic but now are.kle4 said:ydoethur said:
You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
.
It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong2 -
No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.contrarian said:Interesting jobs report from the US
unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%
Almost 20m jobs lost
At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.
almost 8% year on year.
Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.
I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.0 -
People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.another_richard said:
Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.
Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.0 -
Those three don’t make me sit up, they make me slump in my seat with utter despair.coach said:
Quite funny, what I've said about Starmer is opinion, the other three is factkinabalu said:
Throw up.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.0 -
Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.johnoundle said:
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
Might.1 -
Yep, the tories have cornered that market. Starmer is not going to appeal the blokes in Sedgefield that deserted Labour, he's just another lawyer from London.johnoundle said:
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.1 -
You wonder whether gold, oil futures, shares or property will be the preferred targets.eristdoof said:
People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.another_richard said:
Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.
Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.0 -
No this just shows the problem with using means. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.Philip_Thompson said:
No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.contrarian said:Interesting jobs report from the US
unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%
Almost 20m jobs lost
At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.
almost 8% year on year.
Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.
I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.
Use the median and cutting off the top or bottom and the average stays the same.
A median is just as much an average as the mean is.0 -
There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.RobD said:
Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.johnoundle said:
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
Might.
If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.0 -
On wartime history, it is funny how sitcoms were in some ways historically accurate.
Blackadder -- trench life; four classes of soldier -- old sweats, fresh out of public school subalterns (who early on had a 6-week life expectancy); poor, uneducated conscripts and the general staff.
'Allo 'Allo -- life continuing under occupation; the Gaullist resistance versus the communist resistance; downed airmen being spirited off to neutral countries; Nazi art looting.
It Ain't Half Hot Mum -- Indian Army vs the British Army in India; war in the East; concert parties; even how soldiers were paid.
Dad's Army -- Home Guard; veterans of the Great War and imperial wars; rationing; blackouts; shelters; conscription; crime and the black market; even illicit sex.
Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!1 -
Oi!DecrepiterJohnL said:Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!
Edit - although your other three have some merit, Blackadder was not particularly historically accurate. It owed more to Alan Clark’s novel than any realistic appraisal of the facts of life in the Great War.
It is very, very funny though.0 -
I’m pretty sure being pedantic is frowned upon here.ydoethur said:
There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.RobD said:
Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.johnoundle said:
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
Might.
If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.2 -
Joff Wild and the like are the Keir Starmer equivalents of Momentum cheerleaders for Jeremy Corbyn. I expect they are limbering up to sing "There's a Starmer waiting in the sky" at The Big Feastival as a counter to "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" at Glasto.
If the polls had gone well for Labour, they'd be evidence of Starmer's impact... they haven't, so they don't really matter. As it is, Joff sees a poll where the Conservatives got 48 (+4 from the last one) as the first for a while where they haven't got 50, Boris' leader rating going from 53 to 48 as a 10% drop, and compares Keir Starmer's ratings as a brand new leader with Corbyn's when he had resigned having just lost an election, without mentioning that Starmer fares worse than Corbyn on "preferred PM vs Boris". Spinning himself silly.
Everyone's entitled to a hero, but it's best to keep a critical eye, even on the posters on your bedroom wall.1 -
There has been some reports about the rise in domestic violence reported here in London. Whilst the Met Police officers have been making an average of nearly 100 arrests every day for domestic abuse offences during the lockdown, charities said reports to them are up by around a quarter. This gap has caused concern that victims are unable or unwilling to come forward.stodge said:Back to matters more mundane.
The two horror stories coming out of this are care homes which we are already discussing and the rise in domestic violence about which little has been said. I'm aware of a number of authorities frantically seeking to bring former sites into use as refuges for the surge in domestic violence cases - I think we will hear some really unpleasant stories coming out.
Little seems to have been said about concerns of a surge in child neglect and child abuse. There has been the horrific case in Ilford of two children aged one and three dying after their father slit their throats. British charity the Food Foundation reported that in a fifth of UK homes with children, these children are having to go without meals. They also identfied that some 1.5 million Britons reported not eating for a whole day. A paper by the Centre for Economic Performance also suggests that the closure of schools in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has “opened up a chasm” in educational achievement, both in the short and long term, and this is without taking into account the mental and physical toll on children of being in lockdown.3 -
And what other areas are those ?eristdoof said:
People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.another_richard said:
Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.kinabalu said:
Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.Philip_Thompson said:
Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?kinabalu said:I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.
Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.
Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.
Saving money and spending money is a cost/benefit calculation.
I'm going to be getting sod all interest on my savings so why shouldn't I get a new car this year (especially if car deals are better than usual) ?0 -
UK wide yes but in 2019 the Tories got 45.4% in England while the SNP were nearly as popular in Scotland getting 45.0%ydoethur said:
It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).bigjohnowls said:
2005 Blair 35.2%ydoethur said:
Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.
In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.
*Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
2010 Brown 29.0%
2015 EICIPM 30.4%
2017 Jezza 40.0%
2019 Jezza 32.2%
I think SKS will get 33% to 38%
Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.
How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.0 -
And in IAHHM, the innate love of the working man for overt homosexuality.DecrepiterJohnL said:On wartime history, it is funny how sitcoms were in some ways historically accurate.
Blackadder -- trench life; four classes of soldier -- old sweats, fresh out of public school subalterns (who early on had a 6-week life expectancy); poor, uneducated conscripts and the general staff.
'Allo 'Allo -- life continuing under occupation; the Gaullist resistance versus the communist resistance; downed airmen being spirited off to neutral countries; Nazi art looting.
It Ain't Half Hot Mum -- Indian Army vs the British Army in India; war in the East; concert parties; even how soldiers were paid.
Dad's Army -- Home Guard; veterans of the Great War and imperial wars; rationing; blackouts; shelters; conscription; crime and the black market; even illicit sex.
Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!1 -
From Politico
"Every year, the intelligence community releases the Worldwide Threat Assessment—a distillation of worrisome global trends, risks, problem spots and emerging perils. But this year, the public hearing on the assessment, usually held in January or February, was canceled, evidently because intelligence leaders, who usually testify in a rare open hearing together, were worried their comments would aggravate President Donald Trump."
How can anybody support this idiot? The world would be better off if he just played golf all the time, he's part of any number of problems and the solution to none.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/experts-knew-pandemic-was-coming-what-they-fear-next-2386860 -
In 2015 of course the SNP got 50% in Scotland.Philip_Thompson said:
UK wide yes but in 2019 the Tories got 45.4% in England while the SNP were nearly as popular in Scotland getting 45.0%ydoethur said:
It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).bigjohnowls said:
2005 Blair 35.2%ydoethur said:
Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.bigjohnowls said:On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.
I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.
In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.
*Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
2010 Brown 29.0%
2015 EICIPM 30.4%
2017 Jezza 40.0%
2019 Jezza 32.2%
I think SKS will get 33% to 38%
Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.
How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.
I think they were the first party standing in multiple seats to achieve that since the Conservatives in 1931.0 -
Average goes up with median too. Eliminate tens of millions of jobs at the bottom and the median job will be over ten million jobs higher in the scale.eristdoof said:
No this just shows the problem with using means. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.Philip_Thompson said:
No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.contrarian said:Interesting jobs report from the US
unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%
Almost 20m jobs lost
At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.
almost 8% year on year.
Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.
I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.
Use the median and cutting off the top or bottom and the average stays the same.
A median is just as much an average as the mean is.0 -
I think you missed out the word 'not' in that sentence.RobD said:
I’m pretty sure being pedantic is frowned upon here.ydoethur said:
There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.RobD said:
Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.johnoundle said:
Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.coach said:That's a good write up.
As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.
Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
Might.
If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.0
