According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
It’s been heavily trailing all sorts of loosening in the papers over the last few days (those articles saying that unlimited socially-distanced outdoor activity, picnics and sunbathing, and permitted mixing with only one other chosen household from Downing Street “sources” weren’t just conjured up out of thin air) but it wasn’t sure how popular it was due to far too literal reading of headline polling numbers and then chickened out at the 11th hour due to ‘care homes’, which is a disaster of its own making.
They should have made the announcement yesterday at 8pm after their review. Instead, they’ve decided to do it late on Sunday night and only give the benefits to the oldies.
It’s really pissed people off. Many were really looking forward to this weekend, and are happy to continue to act responsibly but want the Government to be reasonable.
The Government haven’t been reasonable (instead trying to tell people to “keep going” in adds yesterday) and so people have had enough and are now taking matters into their own hands.
The problem is Johnson is terrified of being unpopular (he's not used to it) and is therefore incapable of saying what he thinks people don't want to hear.
On Wednesday he tried to placate both the pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown groups and ended up annoying them both. Sunak's flip-flopping on the furlough money also suggests division and drift in the Cabinet. There's obviously a faction who thinks this has gone on long enough and the economic damage unsupportable.
This chimes with US stock market sentiment (the DJIA goes on rising and NASDAQ is positive for the year) which thinks the re-opening in several states will lead to a surge in economic activity such that in a few months the US economy will be humming along, Trump will get re-elected and all this will seem a bad dream.
Perhaps but indications are after an early surge activity remains slack - people are scared still and the US case numbers don't inspire confidence. We'll see.
That's a good summary.
My view is Johnson's chickens are going to come home to roost sooner than he thinks.
I'm still betting on him being gone before the next election.
He was made for the effortlessly good times, not a real national crisis; despite a lifetime of wanting to be Churchill, he’s always really been Macmillan.
I don't think he's MacMillan either actually. He's a bombastic newspaper columnist with, I admit, a certain appeal to people.
The MacMillan - Boris parallels are amusingly close on a bare summary of the facts:
Eton Eton
Balliol (Lit Hum) Balliol (Lit Hum)
Becomes Tory PM without a general election Becomes Tory PM without a general election
Increases Tory majority 8 years into power and wins 365 seats Increases Tory majority 9 years into power and wins 365 seats
Resigns after an epic sex scandal that had nothing to do with him ?????????????????????
It's spooky, I tell you!
You forgot to add “Undermined his party leader”.
Macmillan resigned after being hospitalised. Boris might yet do the same.
MacMillan had a distinguished war record, having been wounded on the Somme.
Johnson hosted a TV panel show...
Macmillan had no bastards.
Although his wife had at least one, of course.
I am curious though. Why do you constantly bring up the fact Johnson is a philanderer and give Corbyn a pass even though his behaviour is almost exactly comparable?
At least Starmer seems to be perfectly happily married, which I assume meets with your approval.
How many children ouside wedlock does Corbyn have? I have not heard him described as a philanderer.
For all his many faults, Corbyn seems to have a good relationship with his children.
That's alright then. A Liberal viewpoint. Didn't Hitler even like other people's children and his dog?
(I've also just remembered 2010 was the one and only time I've ever voted Tory)
Same for me with the LibDems.
Never again.
What seat? Presumably a Tory-LD marginal?
So I thought! In the end Labour finished 2nd ahead of the LDs. Ealing Central & Acton.
It transpired that my Tory-member colleague who lived in the same seat voted Labour as she couldn't stand the Tory candidate.
Let the pollsters figure that lot out.
So it was a bit like Kensington in 2019 with tactical voters confusing themselves and handing seats to the Tories.
Yeah, the Evening Standard published stuff indicating which seats the LDs were in with a shout, based on Cleggasm polling that wasn't sustained until polling day.
It’s been heavily trailing all sorts of loosening in the papers over the last few days (those articles saying that unlimited socially-distanced outdoor activity, picnics and sunbathing, and permitted mixing with only one other chosen household from Downing Street “sources” weren’t just conjured up out of thin air) but it wasn’t sure how popular it was due to far too literal reading of headline polling numbers and then chickened out at the 11th hour due to ‘care homes’, which is a disaster of its own making.
They should have made the announcement yesterday at 8pm after their review. Instead, they’ve decided to do it late on Sunday night and only give the benefits to the oldies.
It’s really pissed people off. Many were really looking forward to this weekend, and are happy to continue to act responsibly but want the Government to be reasonable.
The Government haven’t been reasonable (instead trying to tell people to “keep going” in adds yesterday) and so people have had enough and are now taking matters into their own hands.
The problem is Johnson is terrified of being unpopular (he's not used to it) and is therefore incapable of saying what he thinks people don't want to hear.
On Wednesday he tried to placate both the pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown groups and ended up annoying them both. Sunak's flip-flopping on the furlough money also suggests division and drift in the Cabinet. There's obviously a faction who thinks this has gone on long enough and the economic damage unsupportable.
This chimes with US stock market sentiment (the DJIA goes on rising and NASDAQ is positive for the year) which thinks the re-opening in several states will lead to a surge in economic activity such that in a few months the US economy will be humming along, Trump will get re-elected and all this will seem a bad dream.
Perhaps but indications are after an early surge activity remains slack - people are scared still and the US case numbers don't inspire confidence. We'll see.
That's a good summary.
My view is Johnson's chickens are going to come home to roost sooner than he thinks.
I'm still betting on him being gone before the next election.
He was made for the effortlessly good times, not a real national crisis; despite a lifetime of wanting to be Churchill, he’s always really been Macmillan.
I don't think he's MacMillan either actually. He's a bombastic newspaper columnist with, I admit, a certain appeal to people.
The MacMillan - Boris parallels are amusingly close on a bare summary of the facts:
Eton Eton
Balliol (Lit Hum) Balliol (Lit Hum)
Becomes Tory PM without a general election Becomes Tory PM without a general election
Increases Tory majority 8 years into power and wins 365 seats Increases Tory majority 9 years into power and wins 365 seats
Resigns after an epic sex scandal that had nothing to do with him ?????????????????????
It's spooky, I tell you!
You forgot to add “Undermined his party leader”.
Macmillan resigned after being hospitalised. Boris might yet do the same.
MacMillan had a distinguished war record, having been wounded on the Somme.
Johnson hosted a TV panel show...
Macmillan had no bastards.
Although his wife had at least one, of course.
I am curious though. Why do you constantly bring up the fact Johnson is a philanderer and give Corbyn a pass even though his behaviour is almost exactly comparable?
At least Starmer seems to be perfectly happily married, which I assume meets with your approval.
How many children ouside wedlock does Corbyn have? I have not heard him described as a philanderer.
For all his many faults, Corbyn seems to have a good relationship with his children.
That's alright then. A Liberal viewpoint. Didn't Hitler even like other people's children and his dog?
He rather enjoyed the great outdoors too
Did he have an allotment too? You'll be telling me next he photographed manhole covers.
No, they’re not. I think for that reason we just have to take this ‘on the chin’. Let the virus rip. Let many old and enormously fat people die. We will endure
But second-hand mobility scooter prices will crash.....
I'm able to stay at home because other people are going out to work. I want them to be as safe as possible and not be risking their lives just to deliver me my food and keep my lights on.
I'm privileged to be able to lockdown. I'm certainly not going to abuse that privilege.
According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.
We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona
The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
As long as the health service doesn't collapse...I agree with you...
And the Tories, for all their catastrophic handling of this pandemic, have proved they can keep the NHS afloat...but they need to ensure now that the NHS returns to business as usual and Covid patients are treated separately in the numbers that come in.......
My wife and I, watching this, both said "2 metres?" and I bet that 90%+ of the national audience said something similar with a few expletives thrown in. The BBC is peopled with prats. Disgraceful.
With respect,how do you know?
Camera lens and perspectives can be deceptive.
That could easily be (and very probably is) various household groups with kids standing 2m apart - all the more so because they knew they'd be on national TV.
WEDNESDAY: SKS shish-kebabs Bozza at PMQs. Panic Waffle Blah we're listing lockdown on Sunday improv. Friendly hacks briefed to write pro-Boris Huzzah headlines like LOCKDOWN LIBERATION THURSDAY: Tory press has a massive orgasm celebrating Johnson about to Announce The End of Lockdown. WE'RE GOING TO THE PUB says the Sun. PM update - pants shat in Downing Street as scientists point out how dead we all are FRIDAY: Wonderful headlines for Bozza as people fuck the lockdown at direct invitation of Churchill 2020 and have big street parties with a special Covid guest SATURDAY: AS YOU WERE headlines as the press realise they have been sold a pup by number 10 SUNDAY: Scripted Waffle Blah No Change to Lockdown MONDAY: WTF?
It’s been heavily trailing all sorts of loosening in the papers over the last few days (those articles saying that unlimited socially-distanced outdoor activity, picnics and sunbathing, and permitted mixing with only one other chosen household from Downing Street “sources” weren’t just conjured up out of thin air) but it wasn’t sure how popular it was due to far too literal reading of headline polling numbers and then chickened out at the 11th hour due to ‘care homes’, which is a disaster of its own making.
They should have made the announcement yesterday at 8pm after their review. Instead, they’ve decided to do it late on Sunday night and only give the benefits to the oldies.
It’s really pissed people off. Many were really looking forward to this weekend, and are happy to continue to act responsibly but want the Government to be reasonable.
The Government haven’t been reasonable (instead trying to tell people to “keep going” in adds yesterday) and so people have had enough and are now taking matters into their own hands.
The problem is Johnson is terrified of being unpopular (he's not used to it) and is therefore incapable of saying what he thinks people don't want to hear.
On Wednesday he tried to placate both the pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown groups and ended up annoying them both. Sunak's flip-flopping on the furlough money also suggests division and drift in the Cabinet. There's obviously a faction who thinks this has gone on long enough and the economic damage unsupportable.
This chimes with US stock market sentiment (the DJIA goes on rising and NASDAQ is positive for the year) which thinks the re-opening in several states will lead to a surge in economic activity such that in a few months the US economy will be humming along, Trump will get re-elected and all this will seem a bad dream.
Perhaps but indications are after an early surge activity remains slack - people are scared still and the US case numbers don't inspire confidence. We'll see.
That's a good summary.
My view is Johnson's chickens are going to come home to roost sooner than he thinks.
I'm still betting on him being gone before the next election.
He was made for the effortlessly good times, not a real national crisis; despite a lifetime of wanting to be Churchill, he’s always really been Macmillan.
I don't think he's MacMillan either actually. He's a bombastic newspaper columnist with, I admit, a certain appeal to people.
The MacMillan - Boris parallels are amusingly close on a bare summary of the facts:
Eton Eton
Balliol (Lit Hum) Balliol (Lit Hum)
Becomes Tory PM without a general election Becomes Tory PM without a general election
Increases Tory majority 8 years into power and wins 365 seats Increases Tory majority 9 years into power and wins 365 seats
Resigns after an epic sex scandal that had nothing to do with him ?????????????????????
It's spooky, I tell you!
You forgot to add “Undermined his party leader”.
Macmillan resigned after being hospitalised. Boris might yet do the same.
MacMillan had a distinguished war record, having been wounded on the Somme.
Johnson hosted a TV panel show...
Macmillan had no bastards.
Although his wife had at least one, of course.
I am curious though. Why do you constantly bring up the fact Johnson is a philanderer and give Corbyn a pass even though his behaviour is almost exactly comparable?
At least Starmer seems to be perfectly happily married, which I assume meets with your approval.
How many children ouside wedlock does Corbyn have? I have not heard him described as a philanderer.
For all his many faults, Corbyn seems to have a good relationship with his children.
That's alright then. A Liberal viewpoint. Didn't Hitler even like other people's children and his dog?
He rather enjoyed the great outdoors too
Did he have an allotment too? You'll be telling me next he photographed manhole covers.
I'll tell you who else liked visiting Eastern Europe...
According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.
We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona
The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
It has served a purpose to stop the NHS collapsing...and given us a bit of headspace on how to manage this thing.....
Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....
The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
Some were evacuated from London to the Welsh countryside, I believe...
According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.
We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona
The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
Hang on... I agree but...
Who are you and how did you hack Eadrics account?
I’ve been strident about the threat of this bug, but I have ALWAYS been ambivalent about our reaction. From about mid February, when the rest of you (*cough*) were telling me to shut up about corona so you could talk about log fire regulations, I was speculating that a wise reaction might be just: accept it. Roll with it. Sweden,
I didn’t know the right answer then and I don’t know now, but I am edging towards the Swedish approach, given that we can’t do South Korea now (and maybe never could)
I was warning about Coronavirus in late January and stocked up my house with supplies then, but whatever. I never went in for the extreme bedwetting.
Coming in very late once again because of work. But another excellent header from SO.
Right now there is absolutely nothing that Labour can do that will shift the polls and absolutely loads they need to do to make sure they do shift at the right time.
At the moment everything is about the Government.
If they come out of the crisis at some point over the next 12 - 18 months looking like they have done their best and without any real failings that can be stuck on them (a very big ask I believe) then they will win the next election no matter what Starmer and Labour do.
If they come out looking like they have made a mess of things for the wrong reasons (ignored scientific advise or made decisions outside of the scope of the advice that was clearly wrong) then they will suffer badly.
At that point Starmer needs to show that he has a party that is a Government in waiting. In all honesty there is no way Johnson should have won the 2019 election. Labour let him. What Labour need to do now is look competent, united, reasonable and appeal to a wide base. That isn't the same as moving to the centre. Parties make the centre anew at each election. What they have to do is show people that they can run things better than the Tories.
So Starmer has a huge amount to do. But none of it is likely to show up in the polling. He needs to ignore that for the next 2 years and then make sure that for the 2 years before the election he has gives himself the opportunity to challenge the Tories if they start to falter.
It was the LibDems and SNP who handed Johnson the 2019 election - simply by agreeing to it. Corbyn lost his veto once it became clear that a single clause Bill to override the FTPA was going to pass. How different things would have looked now had the minor Opposition parties allowed the Brexit saga to continue into 2020. No oelection would then have been likely before late February - by which time Coronavirus and the NHS would have become key issues pushing Brexit into the background.
You're delusional to think vetoing an election is ever plausible for an opposition for long.
The Opposition had blocked it three times!
Yes when an election meant Hard Brexit by default during the campaign. Once the extension was granted that excuse vanished and you didn't have a leg to cower behind anymore.
According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.
We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona
The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
As long as the health service doesn't collapse...I agree with you...
And the Tories, for all their catastrophic handling of this pandemic, have proved they can keep the NHS afloat...but they need to ensure now that the NHS returns to business as usual and Covid patients are treated separately in the numbers that come in.......
Priorities are difficult to get right without the blessing of hindsight
According to The Telegraph the PM wants to ease some restrictions and assess them fortnightly before relaxing any more.
He hopes to bring in small changes such as relaxing limits on exercise and picnics before looking at analysis to see what impact it has.
A Government source said: "It means we could lift restrictions once a fortnight rather than reviewing the lockdown every three weeks, as is currently the case."
Change a measure, measure R, rinse and repeat....should be just about free for when it comes back in the Autumn.
I don't understand why the disease would suddenly reappear in the Autumn *IF* the measures to control it are implemented successfully.
It's far more likely that the Government screws up and it gets started again sooner than that.
Even those who haven't bothered (Sweden ) and those are going for the total knob-jockey strategy (Trump's US) are seeing the curves flattening out.
This virus just isn't the end of days. It's very nasty if it decides to go for you. If your immune system overreacts, you can be toast. But it's still a very small minority of the population affected and, even then, the vast majority over 60.
Personally I find cancer far scarier and we're racking up the extra deaths on that right now.
Are 40,000 extra Covid-19 deaths worth it to avoid an extra 25,000 cancer deaths and the destruction of the economy for 20 years and millions of young lives ruined, possibly for good?
In my view, yes.
In 1968/69 there was a epidemic called 'Hong Kong Flu' it killed 80,000 people in the UK but there was no lockdown.
Apparently the railways and the post were disrupted, so no change there.
That was over two years. The corona virus has been killing people in the UK for just two months and is already at 31 000
55,000 is the best estimate atm.
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
Agreed. So we just suck it up and deal with a dimensional increase in risk in our lives.
We’ve done it for war and terrorism, we can do it for corona
The alternative of semi permanent lockdown is far far worse. A shrinkage in global GDP of, say, 10%, will kill tens of millions, and fuel intense conflict.
Hang on... I agree but...
Who are you and how did you hack Eadrics account?
Lol!
Surely @eadric has been telling us since February that we are over-reacting to CV-19 and just need to take it on the chin, no need to panic and all that?
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
I thought there was no firmer supporter of the lockdown than you.
Judging by the number of "fuck the virus" VE parties happening today, we can expect another spike in a couple of weeks...
Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot. Got home to witness a furious online row about it. Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
My mother was evacuated from Manchester to a farm in the High Peak. After walking miles in the snow to school in the winter of 1939-40, my grandfather figured that she was safer in suburban Manchester.
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
Some were evacuated from London to the Welsh countryside, I believe...
... and then went back to London. And they say history never repeats itself.
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
Some were evacuated from London to the Welsh countryside, I believe...
I hope they were evacuated to Tintern Abbey and environs. I did a walk there today (the walk was longer than the drive!) and OMFG. I had forgotten how beautiful it is. And, of course, uniquely deserted on a gorgeously sunny holiday
It is a sublime place and I can see why the concept of The Sublime evolved there. Just wondrous.
For the next year or so we are going to rediscover the beauties of the British Isles and this is my first revelation. The Wye Valley around Tintern is World Class Blissful
Judging by the number of "fuck the virus" VE parties happening today, we can expect another spike in a couple of weeks...
Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot. Got home to witness a furious online row about it. Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
My wife and I, watching this, both said "2 metres?" and I bet that 90%+ of the national audience said something similar with a few expletives thrown in. The BBC is peopled with prats. Disgraceful.
With respect,how do you know?
Camera lens and perspectives can be deceptive.
That could easily be (and very probably is) various household groups with kids standing 2m apart - all the more so because they knew they'd be on national TV.
As you will hopefully be aware, particularly being on here, betting doesn't correlate with knowledge, and I certainly wouldn't lay my bet. If this was a matter of deception then the BBC was stupid for different reasons.
WEDNESDAY: SKS shish-kebabs Bozza at PMQs. Panic Waffle Blah we're listing lockdown on Sunday improv. Friendly hacks briefed to write pro-Boris Huzzah headlines like LOCKDOWN LIBERATION THURSDAY: Tory press has a massive orgasm celebrating Johnson about to Announce The End of Lockdown. WE'RE GOING TO THE PUB says the Sun. PM update - pants shat in Downing Street as scientists point out how dead we all are FRIDAY: Wonderful headlines for Bozza as people fuck the lockdown at direct invitation of Churchill 2020 and have big street parties with a special Covid guest SATURDAY: AS YOU WERE headlines as the press realise they have been sold a pup by number 10 SUNDAY: Scripted Waffle Blah No Change to Lockdown MONDAY: WTF?
It’s been heavily trailing all sorts of loosening in the papers over the last few days (those articles saying that unlimited socially-distanced outdoor activity, picnics and sunbathing, and permitted mixing with only one other chosen household from Downing Street “sources” weren’t just conjured up out of thin air) but it wasn’t sure how popular it was due to far too literal reading of headline polling numbers and then chickened out at the 11th hour due to ‘care homes’, which is a disaster of its own making.
They should have made the announcement yesterday at 8pm after their review. Instead, they’ve decided to do it late on Sunday night and only give the benefits to the oldies.
It’s really pissed people off. Many were really looking forward to this weekend, and are happy to continue to act responsibly but want the Government to be reasonable.
The Government haven’t been reasonable (instead trying to tell people to “keep going” in adds yesterday) and so people have had enough and are now taking matters into their own hands.
The problem is Johnson is terrified of being unpopular (he's not used to it) and is therefore incapable of saying what he thinks people don't want to hear.
On Wednesday he tried to placate both the pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown groups and ended up annoying them both. Sunak's flip-flopping on the furlough money also suggests division and drift in the Cabinet. There's obviously a faction who thinks this has gone on long enough and the economic damage unsupportable.
This chimes with US stock market sentiment (the DJIA goes on rising and NASDAQ is positive for the year) which thinks the re-opening in several states will lead to a surge in economic activity such that in a few months the US economy will be humming along, Trump will get re-elected and all this will seem a bad dream.
Perhaps but indications are after an early surge activity remains slack - people are scared still and the US case numbers don't inspire confidence. We'll see.
That's a good summary.
My view is Johnson's chickens are going to come home to roost sooner than he thinks.
I'm still betting on him being gone before the next election.
He was made for the effortlessly good times, not a real national crisis; despite a lifetime of wanting to be Churchill, he’s always really been Macmillan.
I don't think he's MacMillan either actually. He's a bombastic newspaper columnist with, I admit, a certain appeal to people.
The MacMillan - Boris parallels are amusingly close on a bare summary of the facts:
Eton Eton
Balliol (Lit Hum) Balliol (Lit Hum)
Becomes Tory PM without a general election Becomes Tory PM without a general election
Increases Tory majority 8 years into power and wins 365 seats Increases Tory majority 9 years into power and wins 365 seats
Resigns after an epic sex scandal that had nothing to do with him ?????????????????????
It's spooky, I tell you!
You forgot to add “Undermined his party leader”.
Macmillan resigned after being hospitalised. Boris might yet do the same.
MacMillan had a distinguished war record, having been wounded on the Somme.
Johnson hosted a TV panel show...
Macmillan had no bastards.
Although his wife had at least one, of course.
I am curious though. Why do you constantly bring up the fact Johnson is a philanderer and give Corbyn a pass even though his behaviour is almost exactly comparable?
At least Starmer seems to be perfectly happily married, which I assume meets with your approval.
How many children ouside wedlock does Corbyn have? I have not heard him described as a philanderer.
For all his many faults, Corbyn seems to have a good relationship with his children.
That's alright then. A Liberal viewpoint. Didn't Hitler even like other people's children and his dog?
He rather enjoyed the great outdoors too
Did he have an allotment too? You'll be telling me next he photographed manhole covers.
I'll tell you who else liked visiting Eastern Europe...
Breaking News: What we can already do we can do from Wednesday. Garden Centres? My local Morrisons has a large tent thing selling fuckloads of plants already. Letting the people swarming around that do so in a proper garden centre is a big difference because?
As I have pointed out repeatedly - right here and now we can do unlimited exercise outside. Always have been able to do
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
It has served a purpose to stop the NHS collapsing...and given us a bit of headspace on how to manage this thing.....
Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....
The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
My mother was evacuated from Manchester to a farm in the High Peak. After walking miles in the snow to school in the winter of 1939-40, my grandfather figured that she was safer in suburban Manchester.
My particular cross to bear is that I was born in Northamptonshire instead of London. But I cannot remember it so wtf.
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
It has served a purpose to stop the NHS collapsing...and given us a bit of headspace on how to manage this thing.....
Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....
The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
The expertise on here is sometimes astounding.
Well I took out a wedge from the stock market at the end of Jan....and did my mega, panic shop at the same time.....
I wish I had been more vocal then because it seemed obvious to me then....
Do you seriously think we are going to bounce back 15% next year?......
A cumulative GDP 25% hit before the slow road to recovery sets in is my estimate....
Lockdown reminds me of the Evacuation of children in 1940. Done for the best reasons, and totally logical, but in the end many rebelled and it probably damaged more than it saved
But it was the ones whose parents rebelled and brought them back that died.
My mother was evacuated from Manchester to a farm in the High Peak. After walking miles in the snow to school in the winter of 1939-40, my grandfather figured that she was safer in suburban Manchester.
My particular cross to bear is that I was born in Northamptonshire instead of London. But I cannot remember it so wtf.
Whistler was prepared when a snobbish society woman turned up her nose at his real place of birth in Lowell, Massachusetts: 'Whatever possessed you to be born in a place like that?'
'The explanation is quite simple,' said Whistler. 'I wished to be near my mother.'
Of course, if the rate in Malmo is as low as stated, there is no herd immunity in Sweden either...
What we will see is those places that might have had 10-15% spikes, like Lombardy and New York, and possibly Stockholm...and the rest....waiting for the next wave....
It'll take about 4 spikey waves in hotspots to get to herd immunity rates over the next 2 years or so....and even then I doubt it.....
Breaking News: What we can already do we can do from Wednesday. Garden Centres? My local Morrisons has a large tent thing selling fuckloads of plants already. Letting the people swarming around that do so in a proper garden centre is a big difference because?
As I have pointed out repeatedly - right here and now we can do unlimited exercise outside. Always have been able to do
We can enjoy the unlimited exercise by walking past the pub and dreaming...
No-one was calling for it in February. It would have been seen as a massive overreaction. And it is unclear why we wouldnt then have done the same for SARS, MERS, Swine flu, Zika etc given those had similar potential to reach global pandemic levels.
By middle of March people were calling for it, but the UK infection levels were above those of the people coming in, so it would have made virtually no difference. Govt time and energy was directed to the things that needed doing not the things people wanted that were ineffective.
End of May seems like a good time to introduce this policy.
Judging by the number of "fuck the virus" VE parties happening today, we can expect another spike in a couple of weeks...
Much drama in the Village Matters FB page round my way. Wife and I glanced up one of the vast drives of Posho Road to see an amazing sight of 30-40 of the wellest heeled residents tucking into a huge buffet with plenty of accompanying vino and braying. Kids running riot. Got home to witness a furious online row about it. Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
Awful round my way as well. I ventured out and kept my distance but I saw a number of large groups (more than ten people), maybe half a dozen or so. over a couple of streets. A sound system blaring out until half ten so they were advertising their presence and you could hear it a mile away. Plenty appear to have rung the police but it's down to the council, so they'll be getting some photo and video evidence, I imagine.
If they don't crack down now then millions are going to be staying indoors for the foreseeable future as a result whilst the ones who couldn't stick it get 'harvested'. Still, it's a sort of justice, I suppose.
Comments
It''s going to kill a lot more than 55k...we are in wave one with perhaps 5-10% infected.....
We are going be living with this virus for a long time sadly....
I'm privileged to be able to lockdown. I'm certainly not going to abuse that privilege.
And the Tories, for all their catastrophic handling of this pandemic, have proved they can keep the NHS afloat...but they need to ensure now that the NHS returns to business as usual and Covid patients are treated separately in the numbers that come in.......
Camera lens and perspectives can be deceptive.
That could easily be (and very probably is) various household groups with kids standing 2m apart - all the more so because they knew they'd be on national TV.
THURSDAY: Tory press has a massive orgasm celebrating Johnson about to Announce The End of Lockdown. WE'RE GOING TO THE PUB says the Sun. PM update - pants shat in Downing Street as scientists point out how dead we all are
FRIDAY: Wonderful headlines for Bozza as people fuck the lockdown at direct invitation of Churchill 2020 and have big street parties with a special Covid guest
SATURDAY: AS YOU WERE headlines as the press realise they have been sold a pup by number 10
SUNDAY: Scripted Waffle Blah No Change to Lockdown
MONDAY: WTF?
Who are you and how did you hack Eadrics account?
Probably big Covid hospitals like the Nightingales are the way now for the foreseeable once we get over this first wave....
The Bank of England bounce back predictions for 2021 of 15% is nonsense.....the UK is going to b 25% impacted by this virus..and that is a good prediction....
I was not and am *not* arguing for "let rip". I am arguing for an end to the lockdown, and a Swedish approach.
I would accept the extra Covid-19 deaths.
These wouldn't be north of half a million in such a scenario, which is where I could my extra 40k from as a "for instance" flag.
I think the continued lockdown isn't working and is doing more harm than good.
You've changed your mind. Fair enough.
Good to see.
Surely @eadric has been telling us since February that we are over-reacting to CV-19 and just need to take it on the chin, no need to panic and all that?
Surely?
Got home to witness a furious online row about it.
Ending with the line Which one of you bastards phoned the filth?
As I have pointed out repeatedly - right here and now we can do unlimited exercise outside. Always have been able to do
I wish I had been more vocal then because it seemed obvious to me then....
Do you seriously think we are going to bounce back 15% next year?......
A cumulative GDP 25% hit before the slow road to recovery sets in is my estimate....
Whistler was prepared when a snobbish society woman turned up her nose at his real place of birth in Lowell, Massachusetts: 'Whatever possessed you to be born in a place like that?'
'The explanation is quite simple,' said Whistler. 'I wished to be near my mother.'
It'll take about 4 spikey waves in hotspots to get to herd immunity rates over the next 2 years or so....and even then I doubt it.....
We can enjoy the unlimited exercise by walking past the pub and dreaming...
No-one was calling for it in February. It would have been seen as a massive overreaction. And it is unclear why we wouldnt then have done the same for SARS, MERS, Swine flu, Zika etc given those had similar potential to reach global pandemic levels.
By middle of March people were calling for it, but the UK infection levels were above those of the people coming in, so it would have made virtually no difference. Govt time and energy was directed to the things that needed doing not the things people wanted that were ineffective.
End of May seems like a good time to introduce this policy.
If they don't crack down now then millions are going to be staying indoors for the foreseeable future as a result whilst the ones who couldn't stick it get 'harvested'. Still, it's a sort of justice, I suppose.