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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls aren’t moving but Labour shouldn’t be too concerned

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Icarus said:

    Manchester City and England defender Kyle Walker says he feels he is "being harassed" after it was reported he had broken social distancing rules again.

    Can't a man have a sex party during lockdown without attracting criticism...its just plain harassment is what it is.

    These are tough times for the prostitution industry, and I think we should all pay a little more respect to a man public-spirited enough to want to do his bit to help out.
    Of just prostitution- shoplifters and burglArs are having a tough time too. No handouts for them

    I understand that murderers in the drug trade are badly hit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    An excellent analysis by Southam.

    This is a moment in time to be in opposition rather than in government. During this chaotic time governments will be damned if they do and damned if they don't.

    The recriminations over late lockdown, not unlocking early enough, unlocking too early, too little, too late testing, massaged testing figures, too little PPE, care homes, staff duty of care, all fall at the door of government. Now they may have been inch perfect in their execution of pandemic policy (they haven't) they will still incurr the wrath of the public when the post-pandemic. And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

    Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.
    Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.
    Not sure why the government get blamed for "Ferguson". Even though his code / model are out dated, he is the countries leading expert on this and has been called upon by governments of all shades.
    He’s been fiddling Staats though.
    He's adept in alg-her-bra?
    He lives by a code of undocumented procedures.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.
    Did not for Kinnock in 1992 after 13 years of Tory rule, though he made gains, did for Cameron in 2010 after 13 years of Labour rule but still not enough for a Tory majority
    Did for Wilson in 1964 after 13 years of Conservative rule.
    Wilson won a majority of just 4 seats and Home won a majority of English seats in 1964
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    What's everyone reading during lockdown ? I am not a great fiction reader but read some non fiction in the last 7 weeks including

    The Games - David Goldblatt (history of the Olympics)
    The Crucibles greatest matches -Hector Nunns (I love snooker and any "pub" game)
    Who dares wins -Dominic Sandbrook (Britain 1979-1982)
    The medal factory - About British Cycling and its recent triumphs and tribulations.
    A better betting with a decent fellow - A social history of Bookmaking
    A short history of Europe - Simon Jenkins
    A short history of London -Simon Jenkins
    Ghosts at the table - a history of poker
    Airhead -Emily Maitliss

    Quite proud of myself even if all on my sort of hobbies!

    I'm the opposite, not a good non fiction reader, but have made an effort this year Lockdown stuff.

    Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13000 years - Jared Diamond
    Worth dying for: The power and politics of flags - Tim Marshall
    National Populism: The revolt against liberal democracy - Matthew Goodwin and Roger Watwell
    Factfulness: Ten reasons we're wrong about the world, and why things are better than you think
    The English and their history -Robert Tombs
    SPQR - Mary Beard
    The wars of the roses: the key players in the struggle for supremacy - Matthew Lewis
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    They might get to a hung parliment. But I can't see overturning a 80 seat majority to another majority in one sitting. Not unless they change the situation in Scotland, which doesn't look like it's happening anytime soon, unless the SNP implode.
    It is a big ask. However my take on GE19 is that two factors - Brexit and Corbyn - were the most influential in the Cons favour. Neither of these will be relevant next time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    Uh no they have not.

    Osborne cut the 50% top rate of income tax back to 45% and Osborne also cut inheritance tax for wealthy couples and their children.

    He imposed a non dom levy, that was it

  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    I am fairly appalled at those arguing against celebrating VE Day. The Nazis were the most terrible regime in human history. The only reason their death tolls weren't vastly more than their already staggering killings was because they were defeated. That defeat saved hundreds of millions from being slaughtered.

    As a Jewish man, I think it appalling that the end of the extermination of my race is no big deal to some people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,084
    malcolmg said:

    9th

    This is known as "White Paper Maths" :-D
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,701



    And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...

    Yes, it would be most convenient if Labour can exploit the aftermath of a pandemic to take power. Hard to see them doing it any other way.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Gabs3 said:

    I am fairly appalled at those arguing against celebrating VE Day. The Nazis were the most terrible regime in human history. The only reason their death tolls weren't vastly more than their already staggering killings was because they were defeated. That defeat saved hundreds of millions from being slaughtered.

    As a Jewish man, I think it appalling that the end of the extermination of my race is no big deal to some people.

    I think a lot of the argument is against being pressured into 'celebrating' in a particular way which seems rather against the spirit of what is being commemorated. It's not called poppy fascism for nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely lose
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2020
    ydoethur said:



    You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
    .


    It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    A problem facing the government is that a lot of tax is raised from high earners. They may be disproportionately hit by this. But as you say, it’s a problem for Labour. It’s no good claiming that “ordinary people” can be shielded from this.
  • Awb682Awb682 Posts: 22
    Writing off Labour is always the sensible course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely lose
    Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely lose
    Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.
    It is still the ruling party though as it froze council tax, it did not raise it
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    I wouldn't say favourites, but the Tories will have been in office for 14 years, so time for a change will resonate as a message.
    Yes indeed - it will be time for a change.
    Doesn't feel like 14 years, too discontinuous. Not like 1997 or 2010.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,084
    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

    Was last night a slip up ?

    The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".
    It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

    Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.
    Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.
    Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.
    Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.
    The issue with Israel is quite simple -

    - Benjamin Netanyahu is a POS and his policies are wrong to the point of being evil. Not antisemitic.

    - The Jews are evil colonialists and need to get what is coming to them. anti-semitic

    Part of the problem is that throughout the Arab - and much of the larger Muslim world - antisemitism has been preached by the dictatorial states since WWII.

    So people coming from such countries have been immersed in "The Jews do X" all their lives.

    It is quite entertaining (as someone with Jewish heritage) to hear interviews in such parts of the world. When the subject gets onto Israel - the speaker will often make statements about "The Jews". Which when translated on the subtitles get bowdlerised and the identifier changed to Israel

    This stuff has then filtered into the political discourse here. Partly to do with people not pushing back against people with a better score on the Identity Matrix.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    MaxPB said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

    Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.
    Which makes him secure for the full term, but good or bad response being PM during this will make holding harder, though it still starts from a strong position.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    HYUFD said:

    What should worry Labour is the last 2 leaders of the opposition to lead their parties into Government in the last 25 years ie Tony Blair and David Cameron, both took poll leads for their party straight after being elected party leader. Starmer however is seeing Labour currently polling no better than the Tories were under IDS was when he was elected Tory leader in similar circumstances in 2001 as 9/11 overshadowed his election as Covid overshadowed Starmer's election.

    However events could still change things as the Iraq War cut Blair's poll lead drastically from 2003 as the impact of Covid and hard Brexit and the end of the transition period in December could slash Boris' poll lead

    His Leader ratings with BMG were OK, if we keep an eye on the Ipsos Mori ones they might tell us a story. Blair followed on from John Smith who did a lot of work!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392


    An excellent analysis by Southam.

    This is a moment in time to be in opposition rather than in government. During this chaotic time governments will be damned if they do and damned if they don't.

    The recriminations over late lockdown, not unlocking early enough, unlocking too early, too little, too late testing, massaged testing figures, too little PPE, care homes, staff duty of care, all fall at the door of government. Now they may have been inch perfect in their execution of pandemic policy (they haven't) they will still incurr the wrath of the public when the post-pandemic. And then there is the financial and economic aftermath...

    Good post. Interesting to see how SKS plays it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,084
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.
    Didn't Drakeford have a go at the Government the other day for being reckless in talking about ending the lockdown? I could have that wrong.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?

    It was a fun little book, though not as great as Prisoners of Geography. I like his style - at one point he talks about a flag which went away after Charles I' execution and then says x years later one made a comeback, and it wasn't the headless Charles. I like quirk like that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    Essential businesses....

    California identifies nail salons as source of coronavirus community spread
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-california-identifies-nail-salons-as-source-of-spread-gov-newsom-says.html
    Other states haven’t been as cautions when it comes to reopening personal care locations like nail salons. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced earlier this week hair and nail salons, barber shops and tanning salons will be allowed to reopen with modifications on Friday. ...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415
    edited May 2020

    Mr. kle4, I got that Tim Marshall book (I think, certainly got Prisoners of Geography, or similar) for my uncle. Is it any good?

    I have read both books - Prisoners of Geography more suited my tastes as more about pragmatic geopolitics wheras Power of Flags book more about emotional geopolitics. Both good though if interested in geopolitics as I am and think many on this forum would be as well
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2020
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    Around here in Epping Forest there are a lot of high earners and wealthy families, if I proposed to put up their council tax I would definitely lose
    Probably, but my council froze its portion of the council tax for 5 years and the ruling party still gets attacked by the pubilc for putting it up each year so it may not have as much effect as you think.
    It is still the ruling party though as it froze council tax, it did not raise it
    It's a rural unitary authority they will always be the ruling party and we all know national party situations have a big impact on local elections. The point was you cannot point to a single policy of a council group and decide that will swing it, and while not raising council tax will probably help more than it hurts, it may not be as hugely effective as you think when plenty of people will act as though it was raised even when it wasn't. Same way people will talk about the massive salaries of councillors with no conception of the amount of allowances and expenses. You'd think doing away with that entirely - which is not a good idea - would pay for everything in a council to hear many tell it, it's the local version of bankers bonuses.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

    Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.
    Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.
    I think you are being unfair

    1. Care homes - that was either an oversight or a deliberate consequence of a desire to protect capacity in the NHS at all costs. It’s fair to blame the government. But it’s interesting that every other government made the same choice

    2. Late lockdown - he followed the guidance from SAGE. That’s the right thing to do.

    3. Turkish PPE - until you have it you can’t test it. I’d rather money was wasted buying stuff on spec than not having enough. Has any hospital *actually* run out of PPE?

    4. Ferguson. Why is one mans inability to keep his duck in his pants and his willingness to break the rules the governments fault? 😏

    5. NHS App. haven’t followed the story closely enough. But if it’s no good then that is blameworthy

    I don’t see 5 as being more than a Hancock level issue. 1 might be, depending on the fact pattern
    The NHS app issue follows a traditional British failing in government.

    1) Create a specification based on a wish list from everyone, technical and non-technical.
    2) Put out a tender on that basis.
    3) Demand "The entire spec, nothing less"
    4) Comedy ensues.

    What is missing in that process is the concept of Feature Cost. What does requirement X cost?

    A classic example of this is why the British Army is virtually the last on the planet with rifled tank guns.Or TSR2. Or the complete failure since WWII to create a large airborne early warning radar.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    MattW said:

    I could have that wrong.

    Never been a hindrance to anyone posting previously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    If the Tories fail to win a majority again I would expect the LDs to be the biggest gainers, at least on voteshare.

    Tory Remainers are more likely to vote LD than Labour, even if it is no longer a Corbyn led Labour Party
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4/Mr. Away, cheers for those answers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574
    edited May 2020
    50 (Finnish) scientists and experts reject Government's 'hybrid strategy'
    https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/an-open-letter-from-50-researchers-and-experts-to-government/20200508135537005709.html
    ... According to the letter, in Finland, a moderately good infection situation has been achieved in two months. This advantage must not be lost.

    The researchers said that, once the number of infections has been reduced and the testing capacity and infection surveillance are secured, individual cases and chains of infection can be easily traced and eradicated.

    The letter stressed that suppression is not only a precautionary principle but also the only ethically sustainable option.

    In the light of medical ethics and human rights, deaths must be prevented, not just slowed down, these experts argue.

    With the suppression, researchers believe economic activity would rise and life would return close to normal....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited May 2020

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Unusually a sensible comment I can agree with :smiley:

    I think making predictions now in our current situation is fraught with difficulty and are little more than each person's wishful thinking. On a slightly longer perspective I am reminded that Labour's last great leader was Blair in 1997 who won big on a promise [not kept I hasten to add] to be almost as blue as the true ones. I'm not sure that Starmer is anywhere near as moderate in his views. Of course these are different times but remembering Brown, Miliband and Corbyn - Starmer is clearly different from the last one but his instincts for me are way too left-wing. So far he is allowing the lunatic fringe voices in the Parliamentary party far too much leeway. We will see.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.
    more popgun than bazooka
    No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    I wanted to respond to Cyclefree's excellent contribution on the previous thread.

    I understand her frustration at the VE-day celebrations. We emphasise this rather than VJ-day and there was still a major conflict going on in Asia when we were celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany.

    Yet Liberation Day (and that in many ways is far more appropriate a title) is still celebrated every year in the Channel Islands and we have little or no perception of what it is like to be conquered and the sheer unalloyed joy of liberation and the restoration of freedom.

    Apart from countries which were neutral in both World Wars only Britain of all the nations of Europe has never experienced what it is like to be conquered in modern times. To have hostile foreign troops walking down your streets, to be told what you do and when to do it by "the enemy" and to be second class citizens in your own country.

    I think it's right we continue to celebrate our liberation and that of the world from the darkness of Naziism and celebrate all those who contributed to that including the USSR and the various resistance groups. We were alone for a while but we won with the help of large parts of the rest of the world. As someone said the Americans provided the money, the Russians provided the blood and we provided the time.

    Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

    The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748
    Brexit has square root of nothing to do with it.

    Today is the anniversary of the liberation of Europe from the Nazis and the end of one of the worst evils the world has ever seen. Today's mundane international politics isn't relevant.
    It does actually to some degree.

    80% of Leavers think it is right to celebrate VE Day but only 61% of Remainers do
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/arts/survey-results/daily/2020/04/29/70023/1?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Daily_Questions&utm_campaign=Question_2
    Again, ridiculous to pretend this has anything to do with leave and remain. It will be purely to do with how old people are.


    Nothing wrong with commemorating the end of the war (in Europe) on the 75th anniversary.

    It's the inability of some people to stop talking about the war, making silly comparisons of everything with the blitz or d-day or Dunkirk, on every single other day of the last 75 years that is infantile and wrong.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

    The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

    Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?

    Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.
    Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.

    It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.

    In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.

    *Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.
    Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.
    more popgun than bazooka
    No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.
    Not quite as good as the pub, but indeed a predictable change to be announced by Boris on Sunday
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2020
    Interesting jobs report from the US

    unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%

    Almost 20m jobs lost

    At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.

    almost 8% year on year.

    Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.
    more popgun than bazooka
    No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.
    Plant life everywhere will welcome it.

    And it’s good news for the products of garden centres too...

    (This is a joke, OK? I am not suggesting people who frequent garden centres are plant life.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
    Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    His personal ratings are good (last night's slip-up excepted)

    Was last night a slip up ?

    The press are always going to be videoing the new LOTO clapping for NHS workers, clearly he was keeping his daughter out of shot whilst the cameras "got what they needed".
    It was an unfortunate way of putting it. He would have been better served by asking ‘have you got what you wanted?’ because unfortunately our media are that petty and stupid (especially to Labour politicians).

    Ultimately however it will only matter if it feeds a wider narrative. Cameron being caught getting a flashier car and lying about his reasons, or having his car follow him with a clean shirt while he ostentatiously cycled to work, didn’t ultimately resonate because he was considered fairly solid. Miliband’s banana and other Miliband’s bacon sandwich resonated because everyone thought (however unfairly) they were socially clueless geeks.
    Indeed. Corbyn's mural/wreath/etc resonated because he was seen as an anti-Semite surrounding himself with people like Williamson, Livingstone etc who were too.
    Slightly different in his case, because what they showed despite his feeble denials was that he was an antisemite. People who are not raving antisemites people don’t share platforms with Raed Salah or Paul Eisen, or lay wreaths at terrorists’ graves and come up with unconvincing lies to explain away the photos.
    Corbyn's problem with antisemitism was two-fold. First, there really were active and noisy antisemites readmitted up north. More importantly, the definition of antisemitism changed to encompass being anti-Israel (as the Jewish state) thus condemning Corbyn's decades of interference in the Middle East. Corbyn was not anti-Jewish in the classic sense. Indeed, given Corbyn is an Arsenal season ticket holder, it is telling that his enemies could not even find him using the y-word to describe Spurs.
    So not using the y-word means you're not an anti-Semite? Low bar you're setting there.

    I suppose maybe Jews just needed to get a better understanding of English irony ...
    Yes, that's exactly what I said. Hold on, no it isn't. It's almost the opposite.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,415

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

    The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

    Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?

    Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.
    Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.
    I bet when Captain Tom appeared on Blankety Blank in 1982 he never thought he would outlive Terry Wogan .
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I was feeling depressed about the NHS COVID-19 app based on reading some comments here plus some other on-line articles.

    On reading these very authoritative analyses https://reincubate.com/blog/staying-alive-covid-19-background-tracing/ https://reincubate.com/blog/nhs-covid-19-background-tracing-details/ plus the Git comments on the keep alive issue https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-iOS-BETA/issues/2 I feel a bit more optimistic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited May 2020
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
    Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.
    If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    edited May 2020

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

    The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

    Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?

    Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.
    Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.
    And the Turks, in Mespot and so on.

    I wonder if the more important [edit] Eastern visitors on the Western Front were the Chinese noncombatants?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,145
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
    Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.
    If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.
    Actually, my point stands - the LDs aren't a national party either, and nor are Labour, if we apply your criteria, as they don't stand in all four nations of the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
    Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.
    If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.
    Boris would have beaten Sturgeon UK wide last time
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.
    Longer term, we can almost certainly forget about tax cuts. Tax rises to be avoided but only if the public finances allow - is more how I would put it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.
    Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)
    If that's the case then I'm very glad Epping Forest doesn't reflect the nation as a whole.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
    .


    It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong
    Indeed. The hard part if you've been doing this for decades is buying a Tardis to go back and not do it. That was Corbyn's problem -- he'd spent decades doing things that did not used to be considered antisemitic but now are.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    ydoethur said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.

    It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.

    In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.

    *Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
    2005 Blair 35.2%
    2010 Brown 29.0%
    2015 EICIPM 30.4%
    2017 Jezza 40.0%
    2019 Jezza 32.2%

    I think SKS will get 33% to 38%

    Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2020

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.
    Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)
    If that's the case then I'm very glad Epping Forest doesn't reflect the nation as a whole.
    Well that is true, Epping Forest voted over 60% Tory last year and even voted Tory in 1997 and 2001. Labour only won Epping when it included Harlow and Chingford briefly in 1945, 1964 and 1966
  • coachcoach Posts: 250
    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    If we lose again - which we won't - we would need to have a long hard think about what the party is for.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    HYUFD said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    If the Tories fail to win a majority again I would expect the LDs to be the biggest gainers, at least on voteshare.

    Tory Remainers are more likely to vote LD than Labour, even if it is no longer a Corbyn led Labour Party
    I think you are correct
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread Joff. My advice to the Labour leadership would be to have a think about how they’ll react to the really big decisions. So far they’ve been in the comfortable position to criticise the execution of policy. More tests and PPE - who would support more of that?

    But at some point the government will face some stark choices. For example, would Labour support a bailout of one or more banks? When tax rises are announced, Labour will inevitably want to criticise them, but how would they pay for this? The public may be more supportive of tax rises than Labour expects.

    Starmer will push for wealth taxes and a return to the 50% top rate of income tax, the Tories will not raise tax on the rich
    The Tories have spent the last decade putting taxes up on the rich where appropriate. You are an embarrassment for the party, a far left stereotype of a heartless Tory bastard.
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent when he next stands for the council would like to use that quote
    I'm sure HYUFD's opponent could find a rich seam of quotes to use right from the horse's mouth on this site if it came to it.
    Nothing I have said on this site would be disagreed with by most Epping Forest residents so I have no problems there (except perhaps the fact I backed Remain in 2016, though have respected the Brexit vote since)

    I for one admire you for continuing to support immigration from Eastern Europe, your disappointment that the jurisdiction of the ECJ in some circumstances over us might be about to end, and your belief that a common set of trading rules across Europe is by far the most sensible arrangement between us and our nearest trading partners.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Throw up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited May 2020
    stodge said:

    RobD said:


    VE day isn't normally a bank holiday. It was for the 75th anniversary.

    Liberation Day is an annual public holiday in the Channel Islands.

    And it's the day after VE day.....Documentary on German fortifications in the Channel Islands - more heavy artillery there than in all of Normandy - and nearly half the concrete of the Atlantic Wall.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSc_u2a5O_I
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.

    Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.

    Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, even Berlin is celebrating VE Day today as liberation from Nazi rule.

    The only people who are not seem to be a few diehard Remainers like Alistair Meeks and Cyclefree who refuse to join Brexiteers in celebrating anything and the AfD in Germany who refuse to celebrate a German defeat, even if it was the Nazis defeated

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52574748

    Do you not think it would be equally appropriate later this year to similarly honour and remember our forces who were still fighting in the Far East when the European war ended?

    Burma was often called "the forgotten war" and while we think of the POWs and the Bridge over the River Kwai, the perception is the Americans did all the fighting against the Japanese which not only forgets the contribution of the British but also the Australians, the Chinese, the Indians and local resistance movements such as the Viet Minh who fought the Japanese but also wanted independence from France.
    Colonel Captain Major Tom (whom we have all backed to be knighted; when are the birthday honours?) fought in the East, iirc. The really forgotten war was the non-Western Front part of the First World War, which again included many troops from what was then the Empire. The politically correct media creatives who want to focus on the handful of Indian troops in France should widen their horizons to the million strong Indian Army fighting the Bosche further east.
    I bet when Captain Tom appeared on Blankety Blank in 1982 he never thought he would outlive Terry Wogan .
    That part of media history did pass me by, I must admit. Wandering off-topic, I do recall Wogan with a children's choir singing Christmas carols, with the organist, who had his back to the camera the whole time, being Dudley Moore. You'd not see that these days.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    kinabalu said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    If we lose again - which we won't - we would need to have a long hard think about what the party is for.
    How do you define lose?

    What would be success?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.

    It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.

    In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.

    *Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
    2005 Blair 35.2%
    2010 Brown 29.0%
    2015 EICIPM 30.4%
    2017 Jezza 40.0%
    2019 Jezza 32.2%

    I think SKS will get 33% to 38%

    Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
    It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).

    As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.

    How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    I agree. Tax cuts short term then back to status quo ante afterwards. Permanent tax cuts only if they can be afforded.
    It would be much better if VAT was temporarily reduced than income tax, as this will help those unemployed, low income or furloughed and will stimulate spending more.
  • Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I agree. I would rather be SKS than Boris Johnson at the moment.

    Boris can (and will) make Hancock the fall guy. He's still PM with an 80 seat majority after this.
    Care homes, late lockdown, Turkish PPE, Ferguson, NHS app, and, crucially, our final position on the leaderboard. More heads than just Hancock's will be needed.
    I think you are being unfair

    1. Care homes - that was either an oversight or a deliberate consequence of a desire to protect capacity in the NHS at all costs. It’s fair to blame the government. But it’s interesting that every other government made the same choice

    2. Late lockdown - he followed the guidance from SAGE. That’s the right thing to do.

    3. Turkish PPE - until you have it you can’t test it. I’d rather money was wasted buying stuff on spec than not having enough. Has any hospital *actually* run out of PPE?

    4. Ferguson. Why is one mans inability to keep his duck in his pants and his willingness to break the rules the governments fault? 😏

    5. NHS App. haven’t followed the story closely enough. But if it’s no good then that is blameworthy

    I don’t see 5 as being more than a Hancock level issue. 1 might be, depending on the fact pattern
    Re 1. I think your opinion that every other government had made the same choice, i.e. releasing CV-positive patients from hospitals back to care homes, is very interesting, indeed. That's not was has been happening here. What "fact pattern" have you recognised to arrive at this very interesting opinion?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    Excellent header.

    For me the other huge issue for Sir Kenneth is how effectively he will clean house, but that will probably require the EHCR Report to come out first for him to have the authority to do the clearance, rather than causing a civil war.

    Do you mean Sir Keir, or are you expecting him to be a Starr?

    Interesting as well that two of the three largest national parties are led by knights.
    Four largest, surely? depending on what 'national' means.
    If the SNP were a national instead of nationalist party, Sturgeon would be PM right now.
    Actually, my point stands - the LDs aren't a national party either, and nor are Labour, if we apply your criteria, as they don't stand in all four nations of the UK.
    A reasonable point, to which I would answer however that their association short of Union with the SDLP and Alliance parties makes them parties with at least a national outlook.

    And on a more pertinent point, the SNP don’t even pretend to aspire to national government. They are only interested in Scotland.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think garden centres are coming here too. I think that will be the big bazooka in Johnson's speech on Sunday.
    more popgun than bazooka
    No, it's massive. We are a nation of gardeners - love of lawn and shrub runs deep and goes way way back - and it will mean a great deal to be able to tend them again with proper ingredients. It will IMO lead the news bulletins on Sunday evening when announced.
    Plant life everywhere will welcome it.

    And it’s good news for the products of garden centres too...

    (This is a joke, OK? I am not suggesting people who frequent garden centres are plant life.)
    Definitely not - you get a nicer type of person there than in most commercial premises. Than in Gyms, for example. Or Gastropubs.
  • coachcoach Posts: 250
    kinabalu said:

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Throw up.
    Quite funny, what I've said about Starmer is opinion, the other three is fact
  • johnoundlejohnoundle Posts: 120
    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited May 2020

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:



    You don’t have to share platforms with raving neo-Nazis and honour mass murderers to be a trenchant critic of Israel and its actions. If you do you show what kind of person you are.
    .


    It's certainly not hard, and people who think you cannot criticise Israel are just plain wrong
    Indeed. The hard part if you've been doing this for decades is buying a Tardis to go back and not do it. That was Corbyn's problem -- he'd spent decades doing things that did not used to be considered antisemitic but now are.
    Er - no. I am not accepting that. Associating with Paul Eisen is definitely anti-Semitic and that was obvious to anyone, even somebody with the intellect of a dead stoat. He claims he did not know Eisen was a Holocaust denier, which must be the most unconvincing lie since David Lloyd George made his wedding vows.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Interesting jobs report from the US

    unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%

    Almost 20m jobs lost

    At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.

    almost 8% year on year.

    Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.

    No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.

    I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.

    Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.

    Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.
    People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    coach said:

    kinabalu said:

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Throw up.
    Quite funny, what I've said about Starmer is opinion, the other three is fact
    Those three don’t make me sit up, they make me slump in my seat with utter despair.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
    Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.

    Might.
  • coachcoach Posts: 250

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
    Yep, the tories have cornered that market. Starmer is not going to appeal the blokes in Sedgefield that deserted Labour, he's just another lawyer from London.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    eristdoof said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.

    Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.

    Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.
    People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.
    You wonder whether gold, oil futures, shares or property will be the preferred targets.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861

    Interesting jobs report from the US

    unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%

    Almost 20m jobs lost

    At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.

    almost 8% year on year.

    Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.

    No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.

    I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.
    No this just shows the problem with using means. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.

    Use the median and cutting off the top or bottom and the average stays the same.

    A median is just as much an average as the mean is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    RobD said:

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
    Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.

    Might.
    There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.

    If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    On wartime history, it is funny how sitcoms were in some ways historically accurate.

    Blackadder -- trench life; four classes of soldier -- old sweats, fresh out of public school subalterns (who early on had a 6-week life expectancy); poor, uneducated conscripts and the general staff.

    'Allo 'Allo -- life continuing under occupation; the Gaullist resistance versus the communist resistance; downed airmen being spirited off to neutral countries; Nazi art looting.

    It Ain't Half Hot Mum -- Indian Army vs the British Army in India; war in the East; concert parties; even how soldiers were paid.

    Dad's Army -- Home Guard; veterans of the Great War and imperial wars; rationing; blackouts; shelters; conscription; crime and the black market; even illicit sex.

    Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited May 2020

    Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!

    Oi!

    Edit - although your other three have some merit, Blackadder was not particularly historically accurate. It owed more to Alan Clark’s novel than any realistic appraisal of the facts of life in the Great War.

    It is very, very funny though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
    Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.

    Might.
    There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.

    If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.
    I’m pretty sure being pedantic is frowned upon here.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730
    edited May 2020
    Joff Wild and the like are the Keir Starmer equivalents of Momentum cheerleaders for Jeremy Corbyn. I expect they are limbering up to sing "There's a Starmer waiting in the sky" at The Big Feastival as a counter to "Oh Jeremy Corbyn" at Glasto.

    If the polls had gone well for Labour, they'd be evidence of Starmer's impact... they haven't, so they don't really matter. As it is, Joff sees a poll where the Conservatives got 48 (+4 from the last one) as the first for a while where they haven't got 50, Boris' leader rating going from 53 to 48 as a 10% drop, and compares Keir Starmer's ratings as a brand new leader with Corbyn's when he had resigned having just lost an election, without mentioning that Starmer fares worse than Corbyn on "preferred PM vs Boris". Spinning himself silly.

    Everyone's entitled to a hero, but it's best to keep a critical eye, even on the posters on your bedroom wall.
  • EndaEnda Posts: 17
    stodge said:

    Back to matters more mundane.

    The two horror stories coming out of this are care homes which we are already discussing and the rise in domestic violence about which little has been said. I'm aware of a number of authorities frantically seeking to bring former sites into use as refuges for the surge in domestic violence cases - I think we will hear some really unpleasant stories coming out.

    There has been some reports about the rise in domestic violence reported here in London. Whilst the Met Police officers have been making an average of nearly 100 arrests every day for domestic abuse offences during the lockdown, charities said reports to them are up by around a quarter. This gap has caused concern that victims are unable or unwilling to come forward.

    Little seems to have been said about concerns of a surge in child neglect and child abuse. There has been the horrific case in Ilford of two children aged one and three dying after their father slit their throats. British charity the Food Foundation reported that in a fifth of UK homes with children, these children are having to go without meals. They also identfied that some 1.5 million Britons reported not eating for a whole day. A paper by the Centre for Economic Performance also suggests that the closure of schools in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has “opened up a chasm” in educational achievement, both in the short and long term, and this is without taking into account the mental and physical toll on children of being in lockdown.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    eristdoof said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I know it's a long way out but I make Labour favourites for the next election. Reason - the tough choice the Tories will face on tax. Big spending cuts are out so tax is going up - a lot - once the economy is off its knees. If they do this in steeply progressive fashion hitting the affluent - by which I mean not just the rich but the many millions who are merely comfortable - they lose their traditional base. And if they don't, they lose their new base, the RedWallers.

    Tax harms the economy and cuts growth. Why put it up?
    Not immediately. Like I said, the economy needs to recover. Tax cuts, if anything, in the short term.
    Given how interest rates have been cut there will be many people thinking they should spend more of their savings.

    Especially if they are having new thoughts about their own mortality.

    Any tax cuts should be on employment taxes.
    People with lots of cash savings do not suddenly think "yes, I'm going to blow my savings because the interest rates are so low". They look for other areas to invest in.
    And what other areas are those ?

    Saving money and spending money is a cost/benefit calculation.

    I'm going to be getting sod all interest on my savings so why shouldn't I get a new car this year (especially if car deals are better than usual) ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.

    It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.

    In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.

    *Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
    2005 Blair 35.2%
    2010 Brown 29.0%
    2015 EICIPM 30.4%
    2017 Jezza 40.0%
    2019 Jezza 32.2%

    I think SKS will get 33% to 38%

    Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
    It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).

    As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.

    How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.
    UK wide yes but in 2019 the Tories got 45.4% in England while the SNP were nearly as popular in Scotland getting 45.0%
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    On wartime history, it is funny how sitcoms were in some ways historically accurate.

    Blackadder -- trench life; four classes of soldier -- old sweats, fresh out of public school subalterns (who early on had a 6-week life expectancy); poor, uneducated conscripts and the general staff.

    'Allo 'Allo -- life continuing under occupation; the Gaullist resistance versus the communist resistance; downed airmen being spirited off to neutral countries; Nazi art looting.

    It Ain't Half Hot Mum -- Indian Army vs the British Army in India; war in the East; concert parties; even how soldiers were paid.

    Dad's Army -- Home Guard; veterans of the Great War and imperial wars; rationing; blackouts; shelters; conscription; crime and the black market; even illicit sex.

    Thanks to box sets, home-schooling parents don't need history teachers!

    And in IAHHM, the innate love of the working man for overt homosexuality.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    From Politico
    "Every year, the intelligence community releases the Worldwide Threat Assessment—a distillation of worrisome global trends, risks, problem spots and emerging perils. But this year, the public hearing on the assessment, usually held in January or February, was canceled, evidently because intelligence leaders, who usually testify in a rare open hearing together, were worried their comments would aggravate President Donald Trump."

    How can anybody support this idiot? The world would be better off if he just played golf all the time, he's part of any number of problems and the solution to none.
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/07/experts-knew-pandemic-was-coming-what-they-fear-next-238686
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On Topic I think Labour will do better than 2019 but unlikely to match the % of vote achieved in 2017.

    I would be very happy if they do better than that minimum success target

    Blimey. That is a really low bar. If they don’t do better than 2019 (not an impossibility depending what happens to the Brexit Party vote, I might add) then they should all pack up and go home.

    It is a striking fact that by 2024 only one Labour leader elected in the previous sixty years will have won either a majority of seats or exceeded a 40%* national vote share for Labour.

    In that time, the Tory scores are five and six.

    *Corbyn got 39.99%, so did not ‘exceed’ 40%.
    2005 Blair 35.2%
    2010 Brown 29.0%
    2015 EICIPM 30.4%
    2017 Jezza 40.0%
    2019 Jezza 32.2%

    I think SKS will get 33% to 38%

    Hope he gets 45%+ but very unlikely IMO Cant seeing adding the 9.2% to PV as in 2017
    It is 50 years since any party got 45%+ (amazingly, the beneficiary was Heath).

    As for your range, yes, I agree. I expect him to get around 35%. It may well include my vote. While I am not so far madly enthused, he is at least sane, articulate and intelligent, and we could do with more of that right now. More would be good.

    How this translates into seats depends however on the Tory vote. And at the moment we don’t know where that’s going because there are so many variables including how much they bugger up the economy and who leads them into the election. However it is perfectly plausible that they again top 40% and have a majority of 30-40.
    UK wide yes but in 2019 the Tories got 45.4% in England while the SNP were nearly as popular in Scotland getting 45.0%
    In 2015 of course the SNP got 50% in Scotland.

    I think they were the first party standing in multiple seats to achieve that since the Conservatives in 1931.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eristdoof said:

    Interesting jobs report from the US

    unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7% from 4.4%

    Almost 20m jobs lost

    At the same time, wages jumped month on month by more than 4.5%.

    almost 8% year on year.

    Looks like that while blue collar workers are getting discharged, lack of immigration and travel is leading to a search for expertise higher up the skills ladder.

    No this just shows the problem with using averages. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.

    I very much doubt there's been a spike in wages higher up the ladder but slashing tens of millions of largely minimum wage jobs will see average wages go up.
    No this just shows the problem with using means. Cut off the bottom and the average goes up even if nobody has gained. Add to the top and the average goes down even if nobody has lost.

    Use the median and cutting off the top or bottom and the average stays the same.

    A median is just as much an average as the mean is.
    Average goes up with median too. Eliminate tens of millions of jobs at the bottom and the median job will be over ten million jobs higher in the scale.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    coach said:

    That's a good write up.

    As somebody who hasn't voted since 2015 other than in the Euro ref I'm ambivalent about both main parties, but did find the inevitable defenestration of Corbyn quite amusing.

    Starmer seems a decent bloke but he's far too bland for the current audience, there's a reason why Mrs May lasted 5 minutes. For all the bile chucked at them on twitter the likes of Boris, Trump and Farage make people sit up, Starmer doesn't.

    Not just the blandness, but after the pink buses, t-shirts etc the party ended up with a white, stale, male.
    Labour might get their first woman leader 50 years after Thatcher became leader of the Tories.

    Might.
    There is such an awesome pun I could make here if the c-bomb wasn’t banned.

    If I wanted to be picky though, technically of course under the rules in place at the time both Beckett and Harman were leaders.
    I’m pretty sure being pedantic is frowned upon here.
    I think you missed out the word 'not' in that sentence.
This discussion has been closed.