politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating
Comments
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Why?Stark_Dawning said:The official government statement said that Cummings gave 'help' with 'problems in Whitehall'. Someone's not being straight with us here.
I doubt the problems in Whitehall were solvable while he was actually in the meeting. So, pre-armed with first-hand information, he rode shotgun for SAGE.
Seems reasonable.
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It might be, oil is definitely in deflation at the moment.eek said:0 -
That'd be the Guardian.Stark_Dawning said:
The official government statement said that Cummings gave 'help' with 'problems in Whitehall'. Someone's not being straight with us here.RobD said:.
He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference?IshmaelZ said:
Let's all laugh at the Guardian time.CarlottaVance said:
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It's the same way Sainsbury's sends me my groceries.williamglenn said:Subtle pro-China propaganda from the BBC.
https://twitter.com/Maxwellsnp/status/12537771989238661192 -
On balance, taking everything into account and weighing it up, BBC Scotland would rather give credit to the regime in China than the SNP government.williamglenn said:Subtle pro-China propaganda from the BBC.
https://twitter.com/Maxwellsnp/status/12537771989238661194 -
Its v expensive. I got a 3.99pc increase on.my pension. Better to ramp up fuel tax whipst prices are v lowstodge said:
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?MikeSmithson said:
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.0 -
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.BluestBlue said:
If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.kinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.0 -
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
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Phillips’s appointment was also criticised by the Labour MP Naz Shah, who tweeted: “It’s an insult to the memory of the numerous Muslims who have lost their lives, and also an insult to those Muslims who continue to serve on the frontline.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/leading-muslims-hit-out-at-trevor-phillipss-role-in-covid-19-bame-deaths-inquiry0 -
Hasn't defended us against this virus too well. MAD is ensured by the US-Russia balance of nukes anyway.kinabalu said:1 -
And, yes it doesn’t work.Andy_JS said:
This wins the prize for the longest link of all time.isam said:
https://translate.Andy_Cooke said:
Thanks, but I get:isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”
Click the link under ‘Ladda ner data’
http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/0 -
It might have been easier to list the muslims that weren't insulted by his appointment.FrancisUrquhart said:Phillips’s appointment was also criticised by the Labour MP Naz Shah, who tweeted: “It’s an insult to the memory of the numerous Muslims who have lost their lives, and also an insult to those Muslims who continue to serve on the frontline.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/25/leading-muslims-hit-out-at-trevor-phillipss-role-in-covid-19-bame-deaths-inquiry1 -
To be fair this approach depends a lot on the willingness of the interviewee to actually respond to the question ... I don't like interviewers interrupting politicians all the time, but if they don't then the pols tend just to produce evasive or point-scoring answers anyway. Ferguson on the other hand seemed very happy to get an opportunity to put his views across in a non-soundbitey way. So works both way. Was a good interview overall. For what it's worth, I think the journalists at the daily briefings need to realise that many of the questions they are asking are going to be answered by non-politicians who aren't going to be playing the normal games that politicians play. Therefore, it's better to give them a sensible non-point-scoring question that they can give a sensible answer to because it's likely they're willing to do so (as Ferguson was here).FrancisUrquhart said:Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.
Another case for the journos at the briefing not to be just the political correspondents, imo.0 -
The virus/trident is mostly flippant but not entirely. I doubt this virus is a weapon os any sort. Imagin the Chinese developed something or other that was crippling unless you had some bit of gene code specific to Han ethnicity...Pulpstar said:
Hasn't defended us against this virus too well. MAD is ensured by the US-Russia balance of nukes anyway.kinabalu said:0 -
I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.2 -
Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=210 -
You can have a massive funeral if the potential attendees are sufficiently chavtastic :kinabalu said:
I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8253341/Police-rushed-funeral-gunman-opened-fire-mourners-Manchester-cemetery.html1 -
Skwawkbox and The Canary will be incandescent with rage at that statement!RobD said:.
He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference?IshmaelZ said:
Let's all laugh at the Guardian time.CarlottaVance said:
The Guardian is public enemy #1 for many who believe Mr C was present but not involved.0 -
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of low tax and high spend in 2019, May lost her majority in 2017 on a manifesto of high tax and low spend in 2017. Like it or not that is the mandate the voters gave the Tories and Boris.stodge said:
So on the other hand you give them some help with an unaffordable level of Inheritance Tax while at the same time bequeathing them an enormous level of debt which will require servicing let alone reduction so future generations will have to spend the national wealth on servicing the debt we have created for them.HYUFD said:
Elections are not won by future generations
So much for the Conservative Party's reputation for sound fiscal management and sensible economics. At the next GE we'll be faced with a choice of two high-spending social democratic parties.
On that basis, the only rationale for voting Conservative is they will be better at managing high levels of public borrowing and debt than Labour.
As I said before the LDs are the most fiscally conservative party at the moment0 -
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☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson - we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
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We need to screw Virgin.kinabalu said:
☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"0 -
So it looks like North Korea is going to have a female leader before the Labour Party does.11
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ydoethur said:
We need to screw Virgin.kinabalu said:
☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
Branson needs to.feel.the oai .personally . I have always refused to.give him any of my money.ydoethur said:
We need to screw Virgin.kinabalu said:
☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"0 -
Feel the pain..squareroot2 said:ydoethur said:
We need to screw Virgin.kinabalu said:
☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"
Branson needs to.feel.the oai .personally . I have always refused to.give him any of my money.ydoethur said:
We need to screw Virgin.kinabalu said:
☺stodge said:
Isn't "matching pain to the ability to bear it" known as torture?kinabalu said:
Well for me this crisis both provides an opportunity and creates an imperative for a properly progressive tax & spend regime - one that matches pain to the ability to bear it.
I'm working on the general framework (with some numbers) and when you see it I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.
"Do you expect me to talk?"
"No Mr Branson, we expect you to make a large contribution to repairing the public finances"0 -
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@MyBurningEars
I am still working through those conundrums you posed me last week about elites and meritocracy etc. Brain whirring away like mad on it. Leading to one or two adjustments - which is a good thing I think. ☺1 -
You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.ydoethur said:0 -
As Martin Fry said before, "that was then but this is now".HYUFD said:
The Tories won a majority on a manifesto of low tax and high spend in 2019, May lost her majority in 2017 on a manifesto of high tax and low spend in 2017. Like it or not that is the mandate the voters gave the Tories and Boris.
As I said before the LDs are the most fiscally conservative party at the moment
Simply parroting the mantra of events from what now seem an eternity ago butters no parsnips with me. Obviously, the Government is the victim of circumstances which were (supposedly) unforeseeable back last December.
The "mandate" you cling to no longer exists or applies as the world has changed. I've asked you how you think a Conservative Government would or should respond to the new challenges provided by covid-19 and your response, to paraphrase Claudia and Tess is "keep borrowing".
That would make the Conservatives one of two high spending social democratic parties - why should we vote for them rather than Labour next time?0 -
I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.0
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Well, if the reports are accurate the reason the operation to insert a stent went wrong is that the surgeon was so terrified his hands were shaking uncontrollably.Luckyguy1983 said:
You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.ydoethur said:
In which case, like Stalin, Kim Jong Un’s viciousness and drive to induce gibbering terror in everyone will have ended up actually killing him.
Karma’s a bitch...
But, no, I would not want to be that surgeon unless I was also shagging Kim’s sister and therefore could hope for protection.
Of course, she might be glad to be rid of him...and reward the surgeon!0 -
And better dress sense than you.....TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Why should age be the sole criterion? From what we know people are at much greater risk if they are fat or male.
Why not quarantine all fat men? Or men, come to that?
Before WW2 - and for a little while after it - people lived without vaccines or antibiotics and, therefore lived with the possibility of catching diseases which might prove harmful or lethal : TB, lots of childhood diseases, pneumonia, polio etc.
We are going to have to learn to live like that once again, at least until a vaccine or cure is found (if they are). What we can’t do indefinitely - any more than our parents, grand-parents or great-grand-parents did - is destroy our economies and the present and future hopes of our children.
There is always risk in life. We are learning this lesson the hard way but it is a lesson we need to understand.
And before anyone accuses me of demanding an immediate end to the lockdown, I am not making a policy demand. There are lots of facts and factors I am unaware of which will determine what should be done next. But we do need to understand that we cannot eliminate risk and will have to come to some modus vivendi. Nor am I indifferent to the deaths which will occur. My own personal position makes me acutely aware of the risk. But I am also even more aware of my children and their friends and what a shut down society and economy means for them - especially if this lasts into next year or for another calendar year (until 2022, really?). Their future matters.5 -
Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.Floater said:
And better dress sense than you.....TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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The two statements are not mutually exclusive.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.Floater said:
And better dress sense than you.....TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spainkinabalu said:
I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.0 -
MONARCHY = SOCIALISM!TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Again : https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8253341/Police-rushed-funeral-gunman-opened-fire-mourners-Manchester-cemetery.htmlFloater said:
Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spainkinabalu said:
I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.0 -
Poetic justice!ydoethur said:
Well, if the reports are accurate the reason the operation to insert a stent went wrong is that the surgeon was so terrified his hands were shaking uncontrollably.Luckyguy1983 said:
You wouldn't want to be that surgeon would you? The poor man will probably be launched on the end of the next missile test.ydoethur said:
In which case, like Stalin, Kim Jong Un’s viciousness and drive to induce gibbering terror in everyone will have ended up actually killing him.
Karma’s a bitch...
But, no, I would not want to be that surgeon unless I was also shagging Kim’s sister and therefore could hope for protection.
Of course, she might be glad to be rid of him...and reward the surgeon!
If she is glad though, I'm afraid the surgeon would still have to go - to tie off the loose ends.
I don't want to talk the poor man's chances down - hopefully most of the rumours about NK are overblown and he's going to be fine.0 -
Agreed.Floater said:
Funerals can be big vectors for infection - just look at Spainkinabalu said:
I think one of the first things to be relaxed should be the restrictions around funerals and visiting the sick and dying. I find those particularly harsh.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.
Therefore organists should have their fees tripled for attending them.
*looks hopefully at bank account*0 -
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦♂️MyBurningEars said:
To be fair this approach depends a lot on the willingness of the interviewee to actually respond to the question ... I don't like interviewers interrupting politicians all the time, but if they don't then the pols tend just to produce evasive or point-scoring answers anyway. Ferguson on the other hand seemed very happy to get an opportunity to put his views across in a non-soundbitey way. So works both way. Was a good interview overall. For what it's worth, I think the journalists at the daily briefings need to realise that many of the questions they are asking are going to be answered by non-politicians who aren't going to be playing the normal games that politicians play. Therefore, it's better to give them a sensible non-point-scoring question that they can give a sensible answer to because it's likely they're willing to do so (as Ferguson was here).FrancisUrquhart said:Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.
Another case for the journos at the briefing not to be just the political correspondents, imo.0 -
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns.1 -
I think over 80's (for the most part) would not object as strongly to being socially confined, and there are less of them to make a huge fuss.
Over 70's however, especially recent ones, just won't accept it and in many cases, I agree.0 -
In this case they pretty much areydoethur said:
The two statements are not mutually exclusive.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.Floater said:
And better dress sense than you.....TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Oh God, mske it stopydoethur said:
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns. 0 -
Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.ydoethur said:
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns.1 -
Dominic Cummings‘ judgement is awesome.Floater said:
In this case they pretty much areydoethur said:
The two statements are not mutually exclusive.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, my fashion sense is awesome.Floater said:
And better dress sense than you.....TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
Awesomely bad.0 -
Nah, I will Inchon to success.Luckyguy1983 said:
Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.ydoethur said:
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns.
(Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)3 -
That made me actually LOLydoethur said:
Nah, I will Inchon to success.Luckyguy1983 said:
Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.ydoethur said:
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns.
(Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)0 -
I am not sure your assumption that fat people are at greater risk is true. Take a look at figure 9 on page 10 of the latest Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre report on Covid-19 cases in ICUs.Cyclefree said:Why should age be the sole criterion? From what we know people are at much greater risk if they are fat or male.
Why not quarantine all fat men? [SNIP]
https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c5a62b13-6486-ea11-9125-00505601089b0 -
In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.1
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Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
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Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.isam said:Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
Southall
Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
Kante Valderama
Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
Pele0 -
We may well see 50k deaths in first 3 months with shielding so same order of magnitude. Not impossible we get towards 100k in the first year still with the lockdown.FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
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This note from the government website suggests that the fraction positive number over the past few weeks may have been rather overstated, since I imagine many of these negative tests are quite recent, given the ramp up in capacity:
"The difference between the cumulative numbers from today and yesterday for people tested is 50,499 higher than the daily increase figure. Cumulative testing figures include 50,499 retrospective reports of people who tested negative between 31 January and 24 April. These are now available due to a new reporting system that includes more laboratories reporting all test results. The overnight change reported is based on figures using the new system. The reporting system of positive results remains stable and no issues have been identified with this data."0 -
A history of the Kim dynasty:ydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2018/06/keeping-kims-north-korea-s-communist-monarchy1 -
I think he may really be the 'other Kardashian'.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
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Chixit?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/12540836098221916180 -
Who are North Korea's favourite hip hop band?Floater said:
That made me actually LOLydoethur said:
Nah, I will Inchon to success.Luckyguy1983 said:
Don't make a Korea out of it. It could all go South very quickly.ydoethur said:
Why thank you.Floater said:
That might be your best (or worst??) yetydoethur said:
It’s an Il wind. But here must be Sung reason why they are in power.TheScreamingEagles said:I might do tomorrow afternoon's thread about the Kim family in North Korea actually have more democratic legitimacy than our Royal Family.
I am the Kim of puns.
(Sorry, @Floater. But if you don’t like puns you’ve got no Seoul.)
Run-DMZ!1 -
To carry on with the TLAs, FFS.williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1254083609822191618
I wonder if there are nearby collectively-minded western organisations whose support they can enlist in their struggle?0 -
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Dangerously low poll rating for the Tories there.dr_spyn said:Rudderless...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1254126808741687296
The bubble is bursting?1 -
Listening to Iron Maiden in concert right now
What a band....0 -
Labour is only back to its 2019 GE vote share.dr_spyn said:Rudderless...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1254126808741687296
The bubble is bursting?0 -
Interesting use of the word "research" by the Tories to mean "haters".williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/12540836098221916182 -
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/12540836098221916181 -
If Korea is in the news, I can make one of my very rare TV show recommendations. The Korean version of the Good Doctor, available on Netflix, is utterly charming. Totally ridiculous and a lot of fun. Much better balanced than the US version, once you accept the fairytale nature of the programme.0
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Never ever, ever, ever read the comments on a youtube video of anything remotely current affairs. It makes politics twitter look like a phd thesis.williamglenn said:
Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦♂️
3 -
I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.GIN1138 said:
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/12540836098221916181 -
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Has this been peer-reviewed by Piers Morgan?FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
1 -
Reassuring to know that, given the volume of stuff I spew out on here, at least a fraction of it is genuinely thought-provoking...kinabalu said:@MyBurningEars
I am still working through those conundrums you posed me last week about elites and meritocracy etc. Brain whirring away like mad on it. Leading to one or two adjustments - which is a good thing I think. ☺1 -
Nevervread twitter eitherAndrew said:
Never ever, ever, ever read the comments on a youtube video of anything remotely current affairs. It makes politics twitter look like a phd thesis.williamglenn said:
Some of the comments under the Ferguson interview on YouTube are shocking. People accusing him of being in the pay of Bill Gates and saying he's responsible for crimes against humanity because of the shutdown... 🤦♂️1 -
Very similar to mine. I almost had Valderama, changed last minutenoneoftheabove said:
Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.isam said:Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
Southall
Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
Kante Valderama
Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
Pele
Although unfortunately Kante and Terry both played for the same club, Chelsea... a tweak required
0 -
We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.williamglenn said:
I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.GIN1138 said:
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1254083609822191618
This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.1 -
Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.Andy_JS said:
Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.
I also make no apology for repeating the following:
Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.
A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.
Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.
People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.
But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303
In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.
Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.0 -
Watching Goodfellas, Sunak would kill for an economy as vibrant as this0
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Starmer surge!dr_spyn said:Rudderless...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1254126808741687296
The bubble is bursting?0 -
On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:
https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21
I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.0 -
It's a valid point but one which I suspect is repeated in all the countries affected in much the same way. Certainly in Spain it is.Black_Rook said:
Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.Andy_JS said:
Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.
I also make no apology for repeating the following:
Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.
A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.
Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.
People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.
But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303
In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.
Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.0 -
Ten more years of this and we'll have a Labour government!felix said:
Starmer surge!dr_spyn said:Rudderless...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1254126808741687296
The bubble is bursting?1 -
At this rate Labour will be in the lead by the end of June.felix said:
Starmer surge!dr_spyn said:Rudderless...
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1254126808741687296
The bubble is bursting?1 -
Rather than Terry...as you cant have kante and terry...what about bobbie moore?isam said:noneoftheabove said:
Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.isam said:Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
Southall
Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
Kante Valderama
Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
Pele0 -
I'd recommend watching that full Unherd interview with Ferguson:Black_Rook said:
Of course not. It looks as if all these modellers are interested in Covid-19 and absolutely nothing else.Andy_JS said:
Did they take into account things like how many people will die from not getting their cancer treatment, etc? I'm sceptical about the whole "behavioural science" discipline.FrancisUrquhart said:In interview with Ferguson, he said they modelled idea of just shielding oldies / vulnerable and letting rest just social distance. Even keeping 80% isolated, would result in 100k deaths. CV would be too widespread and too many oldies still require some interactions with younger people for care, food, etc.
The Government also needs to be asking about the scale of mortality from non-Covid cases that go undiagnosed or untreated, a potentially huge spike in mental illness, mass unemployment and poverty, the collapse of the tax base and the consequent inability to fund public services at anything like their current level.
I also make no apology for repeating the following:
Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.
A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.
Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.
People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.
But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303
In short, there's a realistic prospect of the lockdown killing more people than the virus and resulting in far more years of life lost as a result of cancer *alone*, never mind anything else. This absolutely does not mean that the lockdown simply has to go and people should be left to take their chances with the disease, but an easing of restrictions is essential and, presumably, cannot be left until about March 2021 whilst the modellers fret and pore over the daily Covid statistics.
Government has more things to worry about than the virus: its approach to handling it going forward will have to strike a balance, not just be 'Stay at Home' ad infinitum.
https://twitter.com/freddiesayers/status/1254055568626630656
This is actually one of the issues he talks about. One thing that's complicated is that the problem of people being unable to access healthcare is, in different respects, both exacerbated but also relieved by lockdown.
Without lockdown you've got overcrowded hospitals and no capacity for other procedures. In fact until and unless lockdown manages to reduces cases to a manageable number, there'll still be the problem of eg vulnerable people not being able to go to hospital for fear of nosocomial infection, and things like chemotherapy/organ transplant being extremely dangerous due to their effect on the immune system. I don't think it's as simple as saying "if we had abolished lockdown, all this other health care would have been able to continue as normal".
But on the other hand, and Ferguson admits this in the interview, lockdown does produce serious health harms. It's a tricky one, frankly.0 -
Yes of course that would be great! But its not going to happen regardless of what we want to happen, so we need a strategy for dealing with less Western co-operation, more nationalism, isolationism and trade tensions than we have seen for the last 25-30 years.Casino_Royale said:
We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.williamglenn said:
I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.GIN1138 said:
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1254083609822191618
This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
China and Russia will have long term plans on how to benefit from this period whilst our politicians will lurch from incident to incident with no coherent plan beyond appearing popular in the press.0 -
That seems ok... played with Pelé in Escape to victory but that doesn’t count!FrancisUrquhart said:
Rather than Terry...as you cant have kante and terry...what about bobbie moore?isam said:noneoftheabove said:
Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.isam said:Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
Southall
Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
Kante Valderama
Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
Pele0 -
Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.AlastairMeeks said:On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:
https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21
I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.0 -
Doh, think I can have Kompany for Terry. Probably a lot easier without Ronaldo as he takes up Juve, Real and Man Utd but he has to be in!isam said:
Very similar to mine. I almost had Valderama, changed last minutenoneoftheabove said:
Just given it a go, obviously helpful seeing Carraghers so copied it a bit, but think my team is better if a bit too attacking, think its valid. Finding the last pick does indeed get tricky.isam said:Has anyone done this? Very difficult. Took me about 4 hours!
https://twitter.com/carra23/status/1250066001821130759?s=21
Southall
Maldini, Terry, Hansen, Lahm
Kante Valderama
Messi Bergkamp Ronaldo
Pele
Although unfortunately Kante and Terry both played for the same club, Chelsea... a tweak required0 -
My team per the no duplicate teams rule:
Jaaskeleinen
Alexander-Arnold
Kompany
Montero
Maldini
Extebberia
Moutinho
Keane
Pires
Messi
Lewandowski0 -
He might not be dead. He might just be resting?eek said:
Yep, I thought that when the rumours appeared earlier this week and no footage appeared to contradict it. Nothing has changed that opinion.AlastairMeeks said:On Kim Jong Un, the rumours seem to be numerous and some from apparently well-connected sources:
https://twitter.com/minchaochoy/status/1253879387868598279?s=21
I’m inclined to believe that he’s dead.0 -
Russia is facing one of the starkest strategic dilemmas of all, and may need to reorient its foreign policy towards Western integration.noneoftheabove said:
Yes of course that would be great! But its not going to happen regardless of what we want to happen, so we need a strategy for dealing with less Western co-operation, more nationalism, isolationism and trade tensions than we have seen for the last 25-30 years.Casino_Royale said:
We need closer Western cooperation and possibly global democratic cooperation.williamglenn said:
I’m waiting for the Tory China hawks to decide that we need closer European integration.GIN1138 said:
Are we going to have 40 years of internal Tory feuding and multiple governments/prime ministers destroyed over our China policy?williamglenn said:Goodbye ERG, hello CRG.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1254083609822191618
This should be a foreign, defence and economic alliance between sovereign nations. Not a project to build a new country.
China and Russia will have long term plans on how to benefit from this period whilst our politicians will lurch from incident to incident with no coherent plan beyond appearing popular in the press.0
