politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can the Tories manage the lockdown endgame without alienating
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We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.HYUFD said:Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
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Just about managed to keep her temper, too. N. London/S. Hertfordshire word endings in plenty, too particularly as the Cons. went on.Black_Rook said:I think that Priti Patel managed to get all the numbers right this time. It's a start.
But who in Gods name writes this stuff for them? Can they not use manage to use to 75% fewer words, or at least cut out the platitudes and slogans.
Patel put her shoulder to the wheel..... or all our shoulders to the wheel twice and I think three times.0 -
I'd be interested in your analysis of the Spanish situation.rcs1000 said:I just took a look at the Italian numbers for the first time for ages. Three observations:
1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.
2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.
3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.
And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.0 -
Or it could be Fake News.Andy_JS said:
I haven't heard that before. Maybe it's true.stodge said:
Didn't Brezhnev die in 1976 and was wheeled around as a stuffed mannequin for some years after?Andy_JS said:"Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/0 -
His sister could be his successor:CarlottaVance said:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/kim-jong-uns-sister-tyrant-219236760 -
There was no lockdown in 1957 or 1968 thoughAndy_JS said:
Let's remember these are people who lived through much more serious epidemics in 1957 and 1968. The 1968 flu epidemic killed 80,000 in the UK and the 1957 epidemic 33,000.Flanner said:
Not true, in my experience. In my bit of the Cotswolds, there's a clear dividing line around 77/78. North of that line, TimT's right: south, there's a real "if I climbed Kilimanjaro last year, why do I need to pretend I'm frail?" vibe.TimT said:
And my guess is that, regardless of what the scientific- and evidence-based policy recommendations that come out, the older people themselves are going to be more risk averse and more conservative in their own behaviours, voluntarily. I do not see how this will adversely impact the Tory vote on its own.
Interestingly, that line roughly coincides with:
- Voting Remain/LibDem (ie: the Kilimanjaro climbers all voted Remain)
- No serious recent intimation of mortality (the risk-averse have all been in hospital in the past year or two)
- Technically being a Boomer (crudely: if you were born after the Blitz, you think you know better than the PM how to look after yourself and others)
I'd also observe that the most prevalent form of gratuitous checking on others is by the Kilmanjaro cohort of over-60s on the over-77 cohort.
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/uk/history-of-major-virus-outbreaks-in-the-uk-in-recent-times/0 -
Population density will of course impact the spread of the virus but unless that results in a cluster which overwhelms an areas health system then it shouldn’t impact clinical outcomes .
The NHS seems to have coped well but why so many deaths per 1 million of population .
It’s not about quality of care the NHS will be delivering on that front . It’s likely to be because of late hospitalizations, people are leaving it too late to get help .
This probably isn’t helped by the advice , if your condition worsens you are asked to call 111 not an ambulance .
In Germany mobile units go round checking daily on those with Covid 19 who are ill and check blood oxygen etc , this means people are quickly admitted to hospital if their condition worsens , in France you are asked to call an ambulance if your condition worsens not an advice line .
Both of these countries have less hospital deaths than the UK . Germany around a quarter of UK hospital deaths and France has around 6,500 less before today’s update .
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Andy_JS said:
"Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/
Time to watch "The Death of Stalin" again.....1 -
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 millionstodge said:
We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.HYUFD said:Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
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Can't stand Triple H, Brock Lesnar is my man!!FrancisUrquhart said:the Donald focusing on important issues...
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1254022414058631170?s=190 -
Not to me. The deaths reported today that occured in the 7 days to 25th April are 32 more than the deaths reported yesterday that occured in the 7 days to 24th April. So the increase today is largely due to current data, not to late reporting of deaths from weeks back.Stocky said:
Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.Andy_Cooke said:
Trying to embed it in this page:TimT said:
Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.Andy_Cooke said:
Sure - try:TimT said:
Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.Andy_Cooke said:
This is better:Malmesbury said:
https://imgur.com/D8ybVBOAndy_Cooke said:
Not from today, though.Mysticrose said:813 more UK hospital deaths
Grim
Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
Show what is happening, to a fair degree
https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7
By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium
(image from David Paton)0 -
Yes, I think it not just non Covid-19 patients presenting late. Test early, isolate and monitor. Test and trace contacts.nico67 said:Population density will of course impact the spread of the virus but unless that results in a cluster which overwhelms an areas health system then it shouldn’t impact clinical outcomes .
The NHS seems to have coped well but why so many deaths per 1 million of population .
It’s not about quality of care the NHS will be delivering on that front . It’s likely to be because of late hospitalizations, people are leaving it too late to get help .
This probably isn’t helped by the advice , if your condition worsens you are asked to call 111 not an ambulance .
In Germany mobile units go round checking daily on those with Covid 19 who are ill and check blood oxygen etc , this means people are quickly admitted to hospital if their condition worsens , in France you are asked to call an ambulance if your condition worsens not an advice line .
Both of these countries have less hospital deaths than the UK . Germany around a quarter of UK hospital deaths and France has around 6,500 less before today’s update .
There are a lot of lessons to be learned.2 -
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
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The U3a is giving some thought to that; one matter of concern is those over 70's who have no experience of, and are therefore 'not interested in' the internet. I'm not sure how get laptops and connections to all of those, ro keep them in contact.stodge said:
We are all going to have to deal with social distancing for a lengthy period even when restrictions are eased. Part of it will be instruction from above and part will be residual fear and anxiety.HYUFD said:Once the lockdown ends I don't think the government will ban over 70s from going out just advise them to only do so when necessary and to exercise social distancing when doing so as they are most at risk of death from Covid 19.
As for your comment on the dementia tax, I would argue this virus will lead to a wholesale re-appraisal of how we manage care for the elderly. As more comes out about deaths in residential homes there will be calls for tighter regulation and there will be many who will not want their relatives anywhere near such places.
From a construction point of view, it's an argument for new homes to be built with older relatives in mind so an integrated "granny flat" could prove very popular.
As for caring for those with dementia, that is a huge policy area bereft of easy or simple answers.
It's not too bad for my friends; we just set up a Zoom, or similar, meeting and off we go.
However, I agree with Mr S, and as someone who has a close relative recently advised of the onset of dementia, I wonder how he's going to cope.
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I was planning on wearing my “AT THE LANE 04” shirt to the game tomorrow.isam said:
16th anniversary! 🙈isam said:Did Spurs’ twitter team know today was the 14th anniversary of the invincibles winning the league at White Hart Lane?
https://twitter.com/spursofficial/status/1253956914083487745?s=210 -
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.felix said:I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.3 -
This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative0 -
I thought it was one of the best films of the last 10 years. I was surprised by how many people didn't like it.CarlottaVance said:Andy_JS said:"Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/
Time to watch "The Death of Stalin" again.....0 -
When I see Little Rocket man, for some reason I think of Elvis.....just imagine he is there eating burger after burger, because nobody will draw tell him to stop.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
@Alistair
Swedish nursing homes are not consistent in their testing/reporting of covid deaths. Stockholm test and report more than other counties
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7453417
Interesting website
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=74534170 -
One of the reasons I loved Rocketman the film was when I saw it at the cinema, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was on the same time, and during several moments during Rocketman the sound of Godzilla bled through from the next screen.FrancisUrquhart said:
When I see Little Rocket man, for some reason I think of Elvis.....just imagine he is there eating burger after burger, because nobody will draw tell him to stop.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
“ Investigations are open in Sweden into representatives of the Syrian regime who are now in the Nordic country, with possible war crimes and crimes against humanity being looked into, a prosecutor told Swedish Radio.”
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=74590840 -
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
If he has died North Korea will just become a Chinese puppet stateTheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
Surely you meant torrid, not turgid?OllyT said:
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.felix said:I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.0 -
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.HYUFD said:It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
The issue is where would you cut?HYUFD said:Austerity is dead.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.0 -
One thing that is very clear is that once the virus is in a confined environment - whether it be a cruise ship, a care home, or a family house (or indeed over a shorter timescale an aeroplane) it is very difficult to stop it spreading. Milan’s lockdown surely left hundreds of carriers locked away to share the virus with the rest of their household.rcs1000 said:I just took a look at the Italian numbers for the first time for ages. Three observations:
1. While the number of new infections continues to (broadly) trend downwards, it's come off less quickly than I would have expected. This is probably partly due to massive undercounting at the peak (56% peak postive test rate, against 4% now), and partly because lockdowns have not been as severe as (for example) China.
2. The number of people in ICU with CV-19 has roughly halved from the peak, and the number of offficially active cases is also declining now.
3. Some massive regions of Italy are basically CV-19 free, while Lombardy continues to see 1,000 official new cases a day. Big cities, with lots of people in apartment complexes. and dense public transport systems, are an utter nightmare.
And for those who want to know the difference lockdowns make, look at Rome and Milan. In the former, the lockdown happened early enough to make a difference. In the latter, it came too late.
Talking to my mother, who isn’t going out but is still interacting with the other flat owners in her semi-sheltered block, it occurs to me that the type of small block (six to ten flats) apartments that are common in Italy and Spain may be a big part of their problem; behind the security of their gate the residents of each block may feel relaxed about interacting with each other. Which is fine until one of them is a carrier.0 -
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.0 -
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
IHT is also about the most unpopular tax there is bar fuel tax.Socky said:
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.HYUFD said:It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
The issue is where would you cut?HYUFD said:Austerity is dead.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves such are doable.
If anything is going to be cut then yes HS2 may go, it is not that popular and was Osborne's pet project not Boris'
-1 -
And that's before he refuses to leave the WH if he loses, and whips his armed base into a killing frenzy.MikeSmithson said:
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018881 -
The US has a lower pandemic death toll per head than France, Italy, Spain and Belgium and us and is testing more per head than we and the French are tooMikeSmithson said:
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888-1 -
That would be progress (from dangerously unpredictable to merely bad).HYUFD said:
If he has died North Korea will just become a Chinese puppet stateTheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018882 -
HS2 is peanuts compared to the debt that we are taking on to try and save the economy from the virus lockdown.HYUFD said:
IHT is also about the most unpopular tax there is bar fuel tax.Socky said:
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.HYUFD said:It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
The issue is where would you cut?HYUFD said:Austerity is dead.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves such are doable.
If anything is going to be cut then yes HS2 may go, it is not that popular and was Osborne's pet project not Boris'
There wont be cuts. We'll have to inflate our way out would be my guess.1 -
But at near zero interest rates, investment in infrastructure isn’t the problem, and won’t help balance the current account. Spending cuts are exhausted as a way out, hence it must be some combination of inflation and extra taxes.Socky said:
IHT doesn't even raise that much cash: [OBR] expect IHT to raise £5.3 billion in 2019-20. That would represent 0.7 per cent of all receipts and is equivalent to 0.2 per cent of national income.HYUFD said:It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.
The issue is where would you cut?HYUFD said:Austerity is dead.
NHS = hardly. Welfare demands will surely increase. Defence? Who built the nightingales?
My pick? HS2. I cannot see how these nice to haves are doable.0 -
1) This guy seems to have Trump derangement syndrome.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
2) Is China really looking for another way of pissing off the ROTW?
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Not if you allow for the time shift.HYUFD said:
The US has a lower pandemic death toll per head than France, Italy, Spain and Belgium and us and is testing more per head than we and the French are tooMikeSmithson said:
It would be helpful to also note the US pandemic death toll much of it caused by Trump's handling.HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
Probably - but I rather liked the original.IanB2 said:
Surely you meant torrid, not turgid?OllyT said:
Generally the government is doing OK, middle of the pack as far as I can see.felix said:I think we might usefully just rename all thread headers as 'Bad for the Tories [insert day] because [ insert reason].......
However I do have an issue with Johnson. His character flaws were well known before the Tories picked him. After winning the GE he went off to the Caribbean for 10 days but I doubt anyone would begrudge him a holiday after the GE and I certainly didn't.
For the second half of February though we now learn than rather than focussing on the pandemic heading our way he decided to spend 2 weeks at a country house with his girlfriend largely, if reports are to be believed, trying to sort out his turgid private life so he is free to marry the woman who was, by now, pregnant with his child.
Once back in harness he then appears to adopt a very cavalier attitude to recommendations on avoiding the virus. Still shaking hands, going off to Twickenham for the rugby etc. Somewhat inevitably, he get's Covid-19 and goes MIA again where he has remained for the duration.
Did it ever occur to him that as PM he had a greater responsibility than most of us to avoid getting sick? I doubt it even crossed his mind. How hard would it have been, Christ, even Trump managed to take the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
Boris might be a jolly good laugh but does not take the role of PM seriously. It's all a bit of a game. We knew that before of course but now we are stuck with it during the worst crisis we have experienced in decades. He comes across as not have taken the pandemic seriously until far later than he should have done. We will never really know what the price of that has been.0 -
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.'kamski said:
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
0 -
He must not win. Nothing more important.rottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
It was insensitive and mostly unfunny crap.Andy_JS said:
I thought it was one of the best films of the last 10 years. I was surprised by how many people didn't like it.CarlottaVance said:Andy_JS said:"Kim Jong Un in ‘vegetative state,’ Japanese media report says"
https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/kim-jong-un-in-vegetative-state-japanese-media-report-says/
Time to watch "The Death of Stalin" again.....0 -
Also boasting that shoplifting is down when almost all shops are closed is pathetic, Tories struggling for positivity. Next it will be no fights in pubs.OldKingCole said:
Just about managed to keep her temper, too. N. London/S. Hertfordshire word endings in plenty, too particularly as the Cons. went on.Black_Rook said:I think that Priti Patel managed to get all the numbers right this time. It's a start.
But who in Gods name writes this stuff for them? Can they not use manage to use to 75% fewer words, or at least cut out the platitudes and slogans.
Patel put her shoulder to the wheel..... or all our shoulders to the wheel twice and I think three times.1 -
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative1 -
The problem with HS2 is that it isn't a very good investment.IanB2 said:But at near zero interest rates, investment in infrastructure isn’t the problem.
Better broadband, new motorways, a new airport? Maybe.
Inflation and extra taxes both hit future growth.IanB2 said:Spending cuts are exhausted as a way out, hence it must be some combination of inflation and extra taxes.
0 -
0
-
One guess what he's going to suggest next.....
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1254089093610340352?s=200 -
Elections are not won by future generationskinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative1 -
Incarceration? FFS0
-
I think you’ll find that the scenario where the debt remains unaddressed by either inflation or taxes doesn’t turn out too well, either.Socky said:
The problem with HS2 is that it isn't a very good investment.IanB2 said:But at near zero interest rates, investment in infrastructure isn’t the problem.
Better broadband, new motorways, a new airport? Maybe.
Inflation and extra taxes both hit future growth.IanB2 said:Spending cuts are exhausted as a way out, hence it must be some combination of inflation and extra taxes.
0 -
It has a quarter of the worlds population so it is not surprising it emits the most carbon dioxide. On a per capita basis its not far from european countries, the worst offending big countries are USA and Russia.HYUFD said:
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.'kamski said:
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d040 -
Despite the increase in earlier days being larger than 32? That doesn't make sense.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Not to me. The deaths reported today that occured in the 7 days to 25th April are 32 more than the deaths reported yesterday that occured in the 7 days to 24th April. So the increase today is largely due to current data, not to late reporting of deaths from weeks back.Stocky said:
Thanks - these look encouraging. 8 April still looks like the peak.Andy_Cooke said:
Trying to embed it in this page:TimT said:
Thanks, don't know what is going on. It starts to download and then just stops. Thanks all the same.Andy_Cooke said:
Sure - try:TimT said:
Andy, can you post a direct URL to Paton's graph. Any graphs linked via Twitter do not open for me for some reason.Andy_Cooke said:
This is better:Malmesbury said:
https://imgur.com/D8ybVBOAndy_Cooke said:
Not from today, though.Mysticrose said:813 more UK hospital deaths
Grim
Merely reported today. Some of them occurred in March.
The actual comparable daily deaths is diminishing still, and in encouraging fashion.
Show what is happening, to a fair degree
https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1254041723526922241?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8648/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-getting-rid-of-the-ftpa-won-t-be-that-easy/p7
By reading across the diagonals (colour-coded), you can make comparisons meaningfully. The brick-red colour is the earliest that data can be deemed sufficiently reliable to be truly meaningful, and the indications are of a downward trend.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWc_SQ6XsAM-_6v?format=png&name=medium
(image from David Paton)0 -
You probably didn’t mean it, but you have hit a nail on the head. Democracy is flawed when a blocking vote of people who no longer participate in the labour market can protect their own position while letting the economy for the next generation go hang.HYUFD said:
Elections are not won by future generationskinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative3 -
Thanks, but I get:isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”
0 -
Uncomfortable with the question?HYUFD said:
Elections are not won by future generationskinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative0 -
Will that picture change, once "globalisation is dead" and those coveted manufacturing jobs have been "brought home"?HYUFD said:
China is the world's leading carbon dioxide emitter and 'according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, global annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 20% since the Kyoto Protocol. The Asia Pacific region saw carbon dioxide emissions increase by 50% since 2005, while emissions in the U.S. and EU declined.'kamski said:
Have you not noticed we are heading into a global overheating crisis that will make coronavirus look like tiny blip?HYUFD said:
I doubt it, Congress will still likely stay Democrat regardless and despite the bluster Trump has fought fewer wars or sent fewer airstrikes in than Obama, George W Bush or Bill Clintonrottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
Trump and other Republicans dedicated to the destruction of human civilisation have got to go.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/04/the-worlds-top-10-carbon-dioxide-emitters/#41f7a4f02d04
0 -
Nothing? I share your dislike of Trump, but given our current predicament ...kinabalu said:
He must not win. Nothing more important.rottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/12539525390929018880 -
Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock.
Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.1 -
"Never in a month of Sundays" used to be said about something extremely unlikely, and we've just had a month of Sundays around here. Sundays, bloody Sundays eh?1
-
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://ago-item-storage.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/Folkhalsomyndigheten_Covid19.xlsx?X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEGkaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJGMEQCIFRlKyrRN1hX6cav8PiMxviFUu%2BjbWU2SE%2B%2F1oyPS%2Bg%2BAiBRheaq6By4%2F9wNoW4q8udT72%2FU4IerupiBpyw5xEdvSiq9AwiR%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F8BEAAaDDYwNDc1ODEwMjY2NSIMt%2FhsPh3xkYQh%2B3QUKpEDQ8NSW8a4wFC2pwk1FFJ0RDqE2pwHsdcRsKIWZaKTzdi82BHnPJo%2BRnOwq30492PZuZtFzLcDK83G1OwB8aRgk%2BU0YdfnWGGxFX2PTk93H4iy3ATp9bZQrShk9%2F%2B5Xbi6XFDhuq9EUcPgPpocf%2FHYAJODL63%2BzxSOuTnUACymXA0nLqvCFTZRa1cO6UmK7q%2F03yq8nubiUI72ZYvgqHCuAUHhmSJvFl30ugjw8RUVgmCW9p5QDXaqidPwIB0U4bPMQO3SRSd7PTI5QJgAVTUo1okVDmsjc0KXw6LGKmt5h75dPrYhsL9ljTJntZlCJDeYAadFzpUj2GV8My91C8BgNUaTPvD4vJhPqy89A7owYQjtyix8moJMyOog3nV3gTvRdljb1%2Bu7Lsb5MZ0I9zdLYpQOHkE%2B8Ih4R5g5utJ%2BL33ExZS5QMfxOirX44GosyM7mfHofey45qNOTyN%2Frs%2BrN82QcPYvx4X37tqFeG1nUAwEm47E%2FB7hr2znbVHHQ0zRFYcEn4pza52AL3ul8AAkpUMwjcSR9QU67AHvyWW3QwwN%2Fhvq1J3mZswOOqZlC%2F3mx%2BlHasSrIZK2SQhbCjyDR1s%2FtXMRurEkjRJE8qXKAJycZIHKWE2mZvAkrQ18HFSjOzHnjE2hlXwTaP945ZpqgGG0lk6UsoYvqqIXpUDwq%2F9IoIwzMGLcv%2BwirJ9tPlo5e1YdeU8FSWOqmNPwcFn4%2BboqIjoE%2Ben0Ra%2B7Sm%2Fo8UHPUGnMxIITezCMlLAsr%2FYiGdplUHgN4JeWDQjS6mQVrS9RQScU6d%2BO2dlM%2BdH8lS2ddFTxbY%2FhKSK0eCLAy%2FVF3n2Wc8bMQQu0RE8e6%2BJCAm9lepfsJw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20200425T170632Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAYZTTEKKE2KOUPG4Q%2F20200425%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=8e410c6a532c565156c95162cf7152fd04dd3fb800c73a9a6f35a31555f25afe&usg=ALkJrhgd8VmcuKjmAswWpXw_8XXFB5xrJwAndy_Cooke said:
Thanks, but I get:isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”0 -
It was a great policy when it came in as pensioners were amongst the poorest in society at the time. Now they are amongst the richest it is bonkers and only remains because of their bloc voting power.dixiedean said:Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock.
Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.0 -
I genuinely believe the consequences of 4 more years of Trump will be at least as damaging as a global pandemic.Stocky said:
Nothing? I share your dislike of Trump, but given our current predicament ...kinabalu said:
He must not win. Nothing more important.rottenborough said:
Further evidence, if we needed any, that four more years of Trump will be a catastrophe that is off-the-scale and possibly the end of the US Republic.rottenborough said:
Blimey. Talk about bleak. We may be only at the beginning of 2020's nightmare year.TheScreamingEagles said:This chap used to the Korea guy at the Pentagon, it is a must read thread.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/1253952539092901888
So for me it's fingers toes and anything you care to mention crossed for Nov 3rd.0 -
I've yet to check the Swedish statistics beaurua for their updated all causes mortality figures.isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
The thing I had found amazing last I had checked was the entirety of their excess mortality over the 5 year average was covered by covid 19 deaths.
Which suggested zero hidden care home deaths or the like.0 -
If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.kinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.
1 -
The average age those lucky enough to inherit do so is 61. Hardly passing on to the working generations!BluestBlue said:
If the alternative is to impose massive wealth taxes - especially a big increase in taxing the process that, er, transfers wealth to future generations - then I have no problem with it whatsoever. Bring on the debt, then (as I think will be inevitable if the economic consequences of CV unfold as expected), write it off one way or another.kinabalu said:
Are you not a little queasy about asking future generations to subsidise our living standards?HYUFD said:
It will as it would be political suicide for either Starmer or Boris to increase IHT as election 2017 showed so neither will.stodge said:
I wonder if that IHT line will hold given the parlous state of the public finances. If the Government has to borrow £300 billion against a backdrop of a gradual recovery from a disastrously low level, how will the public finances be restored?HYUFD said:
And if you build a granny flat and with granny's home only liable for care costs for residential care home accommodation not domestic care now you also get tax free inheritance unless the estate is over £1 million
Would you advocate spending cuts, tax rises or both?
Boris won the 2019 general election on a Berlusconi style package of keeping tax low and spending more and he and Sunak will just borrow to make up the difference. Austerity is dead, only the LDs had a manifesto last time which was even vaguely fiscally conservative
Letting this shitty virus turn us socialist would truly be to pile Pelion on Ossa.0 -
The non Stockholm counties are apparently slow to report deaths/casesAlistair said:
I've yet to check the Swedish statistics beaurua for their updated all causes mortality figures.isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
The thing I had found amazing last I had checked was the entirety of their excess mortality over the 5 year average was covered by covid 19 deaths.
Which suggested zero hidden care home deaths or the like.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=74544450 -
So on the other hand you give them some help with an unaffordable level of Inheritance Tax while at the same time bequeathing them an enormous level of debt which will require servicing let alone reduction so future generations will have to spend the national wealth on servicing the debt we have created for them.HYUFD said:
Elections are not won by future generations
So much for the Conservative Party's reputation for sound fiscal management and sensible economics. At the next GE we'll be faced with a choice of two high-spending social democratic parties.
On that basis, the only rationale for voting Conservative is they will be better at managing high levels of public borrowing and debt than Labour.0 -
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.noneoftheabove said:
It was a great policy when it came in as pensioners were amongst the poorest in society at the time. Now they are amongst the richest it is bonkers and only remains because of their bloc voting power.dixiedean said:Don't know if it has been mentioned ,apologies if it has, but what will really annoy the oldies us the Triple Lock.
Utterly unaffordable and moraĺly unjustifiable going forward.1 -
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?MikeSmithson said:
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.0 -
Wasn't one of HMG's Covid-19 inititatives looking for faster ways to sterilise ambulances? Maybe President Trump will be the winner.CarlottaVance said:One guess what he's going to suggest next.....
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1254089093610340352?s=200 -
Let's all laugh at the Guardian time.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??stodge said:
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?MikeSmithson said:
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.0 -
.
He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference?IshmaelZ said:
Let's all laugh at the Guardian time.CarlottaVance said:
1 -
A lockdown of some sort was inevitable for a country with the population density of the UK (or England specifically).CarlottaVance said:2 -
1
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Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.dixiedean said:
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??stodge said:
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?MikeSmithson said:
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.0 -
Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.0 -
This wins the prize for the longest link of all time.isam said:
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://ago-item-storage.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/Folkhalsomyndigheten_Covid19.xlsx?X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEGkaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJGMEQCIFRlKyrRN1hX6cav8PiMxviFUu%2BjbWU2SE%2B%2F1oyPS%2Bg%2BAiBRheaq6By4%2F9wNoW4q8udT72%2FU4IerupiBpyw5xEdvSiq9AwiR%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F8BEAAaDDYwNDc1ODEwMjY2NSIMt%2FhsPh3xkYQh%2B3QUKpEDQ8NSW8a4wFC2pwk1FFJ0RDqE2pwHsdcRsKIWZaKTzdi82BHnPJo%2BRnOwq30492PZuZtFzLcDK83G1OwB8aRgk%2BU0YdfnWGGxFX2PTk93H4iy3ATp9bZQrShk9%2F%2B5Xbi6XFDhuq9EUcPgPpocf%2FHYAJODL63%2BzxSOuTnUACymXA0nLqvCFTZRa1cO6UmK7q%2F03yq8nubiUI72ZYvgqHCuAUHhmSJvFl30ugjw8RUVgmCW9p5QDXaqidPwIB0U4bPMQO3SRSd7PTI5QJgAVTUo1okVDmsjc0KXw6LGKmt5h75dPrYhsL9ljTJntZlCJDeYAadFzpUj2GV8My91C8BgNUaTPvD4vJhPqy89A7owYQjtyix8moJMyOog3nV3gTvRdljb1%2Bu7Lsb5MZ0I9zdLYpQOHkE%2B8Ih4R5g5utJ%2BL33ExZS5QMfxOirX44GosyM7mfHofey45qNOTyN%2Frs%2BrN82QcPYvx4X37tqFeG1nUAwEm47E%2FB7hr2znbVHHQ0zRFYcEn4pza52AL3ul8AAkpUMwjcSR9QU67AHvyWW3QwwN%2Fhvq1J3mZswOOqZlC%2F3mx%2BlHasSrIZK2SQhbCjyDR1s%2FtXMRurEkjRJE8qXKAJycZIHKWE2mZvAkrQ18HFSjOzHnjE2hlXwTaP945ZpqgGG0lk6UsoYvqqIXpUDwq%2F9IoIwzMGLcv%2BwirJ9tPlo5e1YdeU8FSWOqmNPwcFn4%2BboqIjoE%2Ben0Ra%2B7Sm%2Fo8UHPUGnMxIITezCMlLAsr%2FYiGdplUHgN4JeWDQjS6mQVrS9RQScU6d%2BO2dlM%2BdH8lS2ddFTxbY%2FhKSK0eCLAy%2FVF3n2Wc8bMQQu0RE8e6%2BJCAm9lepfsJw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20200425T170632Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAYZTTEKKE2KOUPG4Q%2F20200425%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=8e410c6a532c565156c95162cf7152fd04dd3fb800c73a9a6f35a31555f25afe&usg=ALkJrhgd8VmcuKjmAswWpXw_8XXFB5xrJwAndy_Cooke said:
Thanks, but I get:isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”7 -
I admire your optimism.eek said:
Nurses will need above inflation pay rises - so it's either triple lock or printing money.dixiedean said:
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??stodge said:
Yes and for the first time in many years the Conservatives will know what it is like to be unpopular and will have to deal with that. Will ending triple lock be the equivalent of Lamont's VAT on fuel - Sunak wouldn't be so stupid?MikeSmithson said:
I think the triple lock will go within the next year but ministers won't be able to do that AND keep a full lockdown on the oldies.
This lot are quite capable of doing both.1 -
One of the big take aways i got from this....post lockdown modelling is underway and coming in the next few daysCarlottaVance said:0 -
Convenient timing with the Return of Boris.FrancisUrquhart said:
One of the big take aways i got from this....post lockdown modelling is underway and coming in the next few daysCarlottaVance said:0 -
Indeed, and they should turn up as an "above covid levels" of rise in Swedish deaths but overall daily death figure they produce doesn't show an anomalous rise.isam said:
The non Stockholm counties are apparently slow to report deaths/casesAlistair said:
I've yet to check the Swedish statistics beaurua for their updated all causes mortality figures.isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
The thing I had found amazing last I had checked was the entirety of their excess mortality over the 5 year average was covered by covid 19 deaths.
Which suggested zero hidden care home deaths or the like.
https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7454445
Which is why I am keen to see if they turn up in the latest revision.0 -
And it doesn’t even work!Andy_JS said:
This wins the prize for the longest link of all time.isam said:
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=2&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://ago-item-storage.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/b5e7488e117749c19881cce45db13f7e/Folkhalsomyndigheten_Covid19.xlsx?X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEGkaCXVzLWVhc3QtMSJGMEQCIFRlKyrRN1hX6cav8PiMxviFUu%2BjbWU2SE%2B%2F1oyPS%2Bg%2BAiBRheaq6By4%2F9wNoW4q8udT72%2FU4IerupiBpyw5xEdvSiq9AwiR%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F8BEAAaDDYwNDc1ODEwMjY2NSIMt%2FhsPh3xkYQh%2B3QUKpEDQ8NSW8a4wFC2pwk1FFJ0RDqE2pwHsdcRsKIWZaKTzdi82BHnPJo%2BRnOwq30492PZuZtFzLcDK83G1OwB8aRgk%2BU0YdfnWGGxFX2PTk93H4iy3ATp9bZQrShk9%2F%2B5Xbi6XFDhuq9EUcPgPpocf%2FHYAJODL63%2BzxSOuTnUACymXA0nLqvCFTZRa1cO6UmK7q%2F03yq8nubiUI72ZYvgqHCuAUHhmSJvFl30ugjw8RUVgmCW9p5QDXaqidPwIB0U4bPMQO3SRSd7PTI5QJgAVTUo1okVDmsjc0KXw6LGKmt5h75dPrYhsL9ljTJntZlCJDeYAadFzpUj2GV8My91C8BgNUaTPvD4vJhPqy89A7owYQjtyix8moJMyOog3nV3gTvRdljb1%2Bu7Lsb5MZ0I9zdLYpQOHkE%2B8Ih4R5g5utJ%2BL33ExZS5QMfxOirX44GosyM7mfHofey45qNOTyN%2Frs%2BrN82QcPYvx4X37tqFeG1nUAwEm47E%2FB7hr2znbVHHQ0zRFYcEn4pza52AL3ul8AAkpUMwjcSR9QU67AHvyWW3QwwN%2Fhvq1J3mZswOOqZlC%2F3mx%2BlHasSrIZK2SQhbCjyDR1s%2FtXMRurEkjRJE8qXKAJycZIHKWE2mZvAkrQ18HFSjOzHnjE2hlXwTaP945ZpqgGG0lk6UsoYvqqIXpUDwq%2F9IoIwzMGLcv%2BwirJ9tPlo5e1YdeU8FSWOqmNPwcFn4%2BboqIjoE%2Ben0Ra%2B7Sm%2Fo8UHPUGnMxIITezCMlLAsr%2FYiGdplUHgN4JeWDQjS6mQVrS9RQScU6d%2BO2dlM%2BdH8lS2ddFTxbY%2FhKSK0eCLAy%2FVF3n2Wc8bMQQu0RE8e6%2BJCAm9lepfsJw%3D%3D&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Date=20200425T170632Z&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Expires=300&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAYZTTEKKE2KOUPG4Q%2F20200425%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Signature=8e410c6a532c565156c95162cf7152fd04dd3fb800c73a9a6f35a31555f25afe&usg=ALkJrhgd8VmcuKjmAswWpXw_8XXFB5xrJwAndy_Cooke said:
Thanks, but I get:isam said:@Alistair @Andy_Cooke
Swedish data in English
shorturl.at/cfG46
“Sorry, the page you requested contains a file type (application/xml) we are unable to translate.”0 -
Sometimes the dice don't fall your way and you have to make a decision which while the right decision is going to be very unpopular especially with your core voting constituency.dixiedean said:
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
The serious politician will take that decision and accept the storm.
Johnson isn't in that category - he's never lost an election and I don't think he will take well to being unpopular, to being booed rather than cheered and heckled rather than applauded. He enjoys indeed revels in being liked and if he starts facing real hostility from the electorate we'll see what kind of Prime Minister he really is.0 -
Also the freddie sayers guy is a decent interviewer. Seems reasonably well informed, asks sensible questions and most importantly lets the people answer.2
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The official government statement said that Cummings gave 'help' with 'problems in Whitehall'. Someone's not being straight with us here.RobD said:.
He was present but not involved. Surely the Guardian appreciate the difference?IshmaelZ said:
Let's all laugh at the Guardian time.CarlottaVance said:0 -
A former Prime Minister would be an appropriate sort.stodge said:
Sometimes the dice don't fall your way and you have to make a decision which while the right decision is going to be very unpopular especially with your core voting constituency.dixiedean said:
Difficult decisions will have to be made. Some very painful. Keeping the Triple Lock or imposing a pay freeze on nurses??
The serious politician will take that decision and accept the storm.
Johnson isn't in that category - he's never lost an election and I don't think he will take well to being unpopular, to being booed rather than cheered and heckled rather than applauded. He enjoys indeed revels in being liked and if he starts facing real hostility from the electorate we'll see what kind of Prime Minister he really is.
Depending on who replaces him, of course.1 -
Just checked the Swedish ONS equivalent https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/
They haven't updated their 2020 death figures from the previous week0 -
Yes, I'm of a similar mind. I can work at home and my employers seem quite comfortable to let me continue to do so. I'll be pleased to see my local Chinese takeaway open for deliveries and when the Racing Post comes back I shall venture to the local paper shop but social distancing isn't going to go away for a long time to come.Pulpstar said:Which elements of lockdown aren't sustainable - genuine question. Is it the social ones or the economic ones ?
I'm probably not going to visit a pub or a restaurant (Except to pick up takeout) till a vaccine is in or the virus is eliminated.
I'd like to visit my parents at some point mind.0 -
Cummings is defo a guy for campaigns. Less so for Gov't - can't he be ascribed a job to sort out the Ministry of Defence that he was going to do. Not particularly comfortable with him overseeing or whatnot SAGE - though I don't think the man on the clapham omnibus will give a monkeys about it.0
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No wonder the UW model is bollocks. An integral part of it is a formula which they created empirically from chinese data....0
