politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 sta
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 states
As we saw at WH2016 the national US vote totals are irrelvant in deciding the presidency but it is what is going on in the most marginal states that will give us the best indication. So over the coming months indivdual polls from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvsnia are going to get a lot of attntion.
Comments
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Biden also narrowly ahead in Florida but still a long way to go
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1253128486769823744?s=200 -
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1253026101825343492?s=19HYUFD said:Biden also narrowly ahead in Florida but still a long way to go
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1253128486769823744?s=200 -
How far was Hilary ahead in the Polls at this stage?0
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The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.1 -
Worth noting that all these (including the Florida poll) are of registered voters. Applying a turnout filter would probably cut the Dem lead by a couple of % (though some polls which are of LVs and show the RV and LV figure don't show a gap, but most do).0
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It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.0 -
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.0 -
fpt
I tend to be on the end the lockdown sooner rather than later but also, perhaps primarily because of the mental health issues.kyf_100 said:
Made all the more tragic that it is basically a disease that kills retired people who are no longer of working age.contrarian said:After nightmarish economic data today BoE policymaker Jan Vleighe says the UK is suffering the fastest and deepest slump in 'possibly several centuries.'
And so I repeat my mantra. Lockdown and its extension is the worst policy decision by any government ever in the history of British government decisions.
The only thing that's changing is the degree to which it is the worst decision.
It would be perfectly possible to lock down the oldies (a voluntary lockdown, at that) while the rest of us get on with our business.
It wouldn't be a complete return to normal, large events and gatherings would still be cancelled, people wearing masks on public transport etc. Things to reduce the spread.
But the economy could re-open tomorrow, starting with the under 45s and moving to the under 65s as we build up NHS capacity.
It is a completely unnecessary self-inflicted immolation of the economy which we will all end up paying for. For many years.
For now we are in the phony war. People are on furlough, still being paid. But as the money runs out, the redundancies happen, the businesses collapse, the social security bill becomes overwhelming and the tax base shrinks to a fraction of its former size, plenty of us will be here to say "I told you so".
I would say the majority of us here on PB are doing ok. I'm going to go with strongly, perhaps overwhelmingly ABC1 (Mike's advertisers please note).
We might have houses and gardens and access to the big outdoors.
Not so many, many others. Plus however many acres one might be able to amble around, the children (and I am taking the UN definition here of <18yrs old) must be suffering tremendously. Many have been wrenched from their schools, friends, exams, support networks.
For the most part, they can't jump onto chatrooms and have diverting and in depth conversations around train guages or R*d**h**d or, you know, what to put on pizzas.
For these people it must end and I realise I am committing the ultimate internet offence of won't someone think of the children but in this case I think they must.3 -
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.0 -
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.0 -
Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.0 -
Very well said Topping! I agree 100%0
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I don't follow US politics all that closely, save for spunking money up the wall forlornly on Mayor Pete for the Dem nomination.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
How exactly has Trump been so incompetent wrt his response to Covid?0 -
A mere 9 points but closing rapidly. There was crossover in May.bigjohnowls said:How far was Hilary ahead in the Polls at this stage?
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Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.0 -
Exactly. Some of what we ask for will be unreasonable. Some of what they demand will be unreasonable. Asking for something is not inherently unreasonable, which is what talk of cherries and cake is designed to suggest.Philip_Thompson said:
Any negotiation is Cakeism. That's the whole purpose of negotiations.CatMan said:Wulfrun_Phil said:
German politicians seeking to make petty points at the price of restricting their own police's access to UK records. What pointless gesture is next, suspending extradition treaties perhaps?williamglenn said:
"The German Green party said Britain could only hope to take part in data-sharing schemes if it accepted the EU’s standards for data protection, and therefore the jurisdiction of the European court of justice."
So we *can* take part, just as long as we don't engage in Cakeism.1 -
Obama v Romney even better.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton1 -
Any ETA on the pick for his running mate?0
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He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.1 -
I thought you might like it.Alistair said:
Top quality trend line.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
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Scottish people less favourable to the Scottish flag than Welsh people.HYUFD said:1 -
Anyone with any familiarity of Europe would know that the talk of Cakeism or one sized fits all is total nonsense anyway. Postwar Europe has always been a cake continent as this somewhat out of date Venn diagram shows.kle4 said:
Exactly. Some of what we ask for will be unreasonable. Some of what they demand will be unreasonable. Asking for something is not inherently unreasonable, which is what talk of cherries and cake is designed to suggest.Philip_Thompson said:
Any negotiation is Cakeism. That's the whole purpose of negotiations.CatMan said:Wulfrun_Phil said:
German politicians seeking to make petty points at the price of restricting their own police's access to UK records. What pointless gesture is next, suspending extradition treaties perhaps?williamglenn said:
"The German Green party said Britain could only hope to take part in data-sharing schemes if it accepted the EU’s standards for data protection, and therefore the jurisdiction of the European court of justice."
So we *can* take part, just as long as we don't engage in Cakeism.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png0 -
This clip is quite long but worth watching the whole way through.
Trump saying virus will not come back in the 'Fall' and being contradicted immediately. It's not just Fauci, there are other doctors telling it like it is.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/dr-michael-osterholm-says-high-amount-of-transmission-to-come-824412859760 -
It's a shame the GOPs two best nominees in decades both ran against Obama. Either would have made a worthy President.HYUFD said:
Obama v Romney even better.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton1 -
McCain's best shot at President was 2000, had he beaten George W Bush for the nomination he would surely have beaten Al GorePhilip_Thompson said:
It's a shame the GOPs two best nominees in decades both ran against Obama. Either would have made a worthy President.HYUFD said:
Obama v Romney even better.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton0 -
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.1 -
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).0 -
Good to see Joe holding up. I've been a little worried about how the media keep describing him as being "confined to his basement". That is not an appealing image.0
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What happens if it returns in the fall and its unsafe to go to the pollslogical_song said:This clip is quite long but worth watching the whole way through.
Trump saying virus will not come back in the 'Fall' and being contradicted immediately. It's not just Fauci, there are other doctors telling it like it is.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/dr-michael-osterholm-says-high-amount-of-transmission-to-come-824412859760 -
"Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden said his campaign intends to name a committee of advisers tasked with narrowing down his vice presidential search by May 1.Morris_Dancer said:Any ETA on the pick for his running mate?
Biden said during the appearance that he expects his list of finalists to be down to just two or three names by July, just one month before the rescheduled Democratic National Convention."
Scooped by investigative reporter James Corden.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/22/joe-biden-says-he-will-name-running-mate-by-may-1/2 -
FPT - to respond to you - I do remember that tendency from the indyref arguments here and elsewhere.kinabalu said:
I'm interested in this aspect because of something I've noticed about a certain type of Englishman who I've come across from time to time. These types will hold both of the following views -Carnyx said:
We had similar discussions in 2013-2014. One thing that became very clear was that the English would fight to the end to equate England = United Kingdom (even though the dissolution of the unions with Ireland and Scotland would abolish the UK de jure and de facto), partly because of their self-perception and partly because of such things as the UN Security Council seat. Ergo you would end up with two UKs - neither of which would actually meet that description!kinabalu said:
OK. But make the (reasonable) assumption that England leaving means the total breakup of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
That's easy. If England votes to leave the UK then England should leave it. Same if the roles were reversed, then Scotland should leave. If Scotland had voted to leave the UK in its referendum then England not wanting to do so wouldn't have been relevant.kinabalu said:
A hypothetical for you -Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.Casino_Royale said:
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.Richard_Tyndall said:
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.AlastairMeeks said:Brexit is loving the union to death:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1253236954742820865?s=20
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
My principle is that if its not a prison anyone can choose to leave freely if that is their choice.
Are you not (in our hypothetical) forcing 3 nations to be independent against their will?
(i) Scotland would sink as an independent country.
(ii) Scotland should be an independent country.
In other words they are English "Scottish Nationalists" who are driven by antipathy towards Scotland.
And what these people always say is that Scottish independence should be voted on by the whole of the UK. They want to have a vote on it themselves. Their ideal (in such a referendum) is that Scotland votes No but England votes Yes - meaning the overall result is Yes because England is miles bigger.
Upshot is that rather than Scotland "gaining independence" they are "kicked out".
This is IMO not a good outcome. And it is (effectively) the same outcome that one would get in my hypothetical where England votes to leave the UK, thus breaking up the UK, with Scotland not wanting to be independent.
Hence why I think that, on balance and despite the arguments the other way, only the smaller nations can decide to leave. England can't. Or at least, it's deeply problematical if it does.
In practice the English could vote simply to dissolve the Acts of Union (and whatever legislation annexed the Principality of Wales) - not so much leaving the UK but making it evaporate. If they voted for Brexit, and that was democratic - so would this be. I can't see why not.
The last polling I saw on the subject, it was the Tory/Unionist/"British" nationalist [descriptive, not BNP!]/Brexiter tendency which tended to be happy with losing NI and Scotland. Much of this however was in the context of impending Brexit vote so it was in part - would you rather have your desired Brexit or keep the Union? It would have been crucial if the English vote had been a midgie's bawhair less for Brexit and the Scots were seen as keeping the English unfairly in the EU.
Part of the problem with the idea of the English voting on indyref, BTW, arose, I think, because the Scottish Gmt used a residential qualification for the vote - so that e.g. Mr Cameron ex-PM or Mr Blair were not allowed to vote despite being a Scot by blood (what percentage, I forget). That was partly because of the legislation already in being which defined the franchise for referenda, and partly I imagine because in the absence of a Scottish passport or similar definition of national citizenship there was no legal or practical way to tell a Scot furth of Scotland from other subjects of HMtQ. Hence complaints from such folk (often hostile to indy). Which might have been broadened to the wider English voting publixc perhaps?
Of course, many of the same folk that you speak of would have been furious if one suggested allowing the Germans, say, to have a vote on Brexit. But, to extend the comparison of two supranational organizations further, it would be one thing for the Continentals to kick the British+Nirish out of the EU, but quite another to dissplve the EU by a majority vote (but of what? people? states?).1 -
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.0 -
bigjohnowls said:
How far was Hilary ahead in the Polls at this stage?
Bouncing about a bit. Apr23 a 9 point gap, but the gap repeatedly closed to zero then opened up again. Nice graph of average polling here.....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
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St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...1
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If you say so. Personally, I wasn't impressed by McCain. And his response to the GFC left a lot to be desired - seemed a bit headless chicken-y - so I have little confidence he would have fared especially well in current circumstances. He was also far too old. And his choice of VP left, shall we say, a little to be desired.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Also Trump hated him, so.0 -
Why so sure he'd have won? Bush barely beat Gore and Bush was a very good campaigner/communicator. McCain could well have won, but I think Gore would have had a good shot as he did against Bush.HYUFD said:
McCain's best shot at President was 2000, had he beaten George W Bush for the nomination he would surely have beaten Al GorePhilip_Thompson said:
It's a shame the GOPs two best nominees in decades both ran against Obama. Either would have made a worthy President.HYUFD said:
Obama v Romney even better.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton0 -
Incredibly depressing?DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.1 -
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.0 -
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.1 -
We'll take that. Double figures as we enter May, single figures by mid-May?Alistair said:
Top quality trend line.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.0 -
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
American voters quite like that democracy of taste. Trump is obnoxiously rich, but spends his money on gold doors, golf and McDonald's, so not out of line with the Average Joe, just richer.
Joe Biden comes over the same. You can imagine him with a Philly steak and cheese whizz at the ball game.
Pelosi has a freezer full of ice cream, but who wouldn't quite like that? It would be more of a problem if it were escargot.
People choose their politicians intuitively and emotionally, then rationalise it intellectually. That is why May was a disaster and Johnson a hit.
I do wonder if Starmer can strike those notes.1 -
England has been out-sourcing for centuries.....RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
0 -
February 2000 poll McCain 59% Gore 35%Quincel said:
Why so sure he'd have won? Bush barely beat Gore and Bush was a very good campaigner/communicator. McCain could well have won, but I think Gore would have had a good shot as he did against Bush.HYUFD said:
McCain's best shot at President was 2000, had he beaten George W Bush for the nomination he would surely have beaten Al GorePhilip_Thompson said:
It's a shame the GOPs two best nominees in decades both ran against Obama. Either would have made a worthy President.HYUFD said:
Obama v Romney even better.Philip_Thompson said:
Obama v McCain there was a quality leader for.both parties.Endillion said:
Marginal uptick on quality since four years ago, which is rare. Quality of nominees has been going steadily down throughout my lifetime.DavidL said:
Incredible is not the word I would use. Depressing doesn't quite cover it either but its nearer.NerysHughes said:
It is quite incredible that these two are going to be fighting for the US presidency.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton
https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html0 -
We will also, with the other nations across the UK, need to carefully consider ‘port health’ – the impact of international travel on transmission of the virus. It is unlikely that we will be able to contain the virus domestically, without some form of surveillance of those coming into the country from elsewhere. We will urge the UK Government to have this as a part of their approach.
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/govscot:document/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making.pdf0 -
Maybe Biden's best days lie ahead of him. But I wouldn't say the same of his weeks and months....1
-
The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.1 -
St Andrew was crucified in Airdie, right enough......RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
0 -
I don't think Andrew made it to Scotland ever.RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
0 -
St Andrew has bugger all to do with Scotland, apart from getting crucified in Europe.RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
St Priti would cover a lot of bases for you lot (except saintliness of course).0 -
Are the labs where they do the analysis, not the test?FrancisUrquhart said:The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.0 -
Some bits of him did, supposedly.IshmaelZ said:
I don't think Andrew made it to Scotland ever.RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
1 -
Thanks for response.Carnyx said:
FPT - to respond to you - I do remember that tendency from the indyref arguments here and elsewhere.kinabalu said:
I'm interested in this aspect because of something I've noticed about a certain type of Englishman who I've come across from time to time. These types will hold both of the following views -Carnyx said:
We had similar discussions in 2013-2014. One thing that became very clear was that the English would fight to the end to equate England = United Kingdom (even though the dissolution of the unions with Ireland and Scotland would abolish the UK de jure and de facto), partly because of their self-perception and partly because of such things as the UN Security Council seat. Ergo you would end up with two UKs - neither of which would actually meet that description!kinabalu said:
OK. But make the (reasonable) assumption that England leaving means the total breakup of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
That's easy. If England votes to leave the UK then England should leave it. Same if the roles were reversed, then Scotland should leave. If Scotland had voted to leave the UK in its referendum then England not wanting to do so wouldn't have been relevant.kinabalu said:
A hypothetical for you -Philip_Thompson said:
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.Casino_Royale said:
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.Richard_Tyndall said:
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.AlastairMeeks said:Brexit is loving the union to death:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1253236954742820865?s=20
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
My principle is that if its not a prison anyone can choose to leave freely if that is their choice.
Are you not (in our hypothetical) forcing 3 nations to be independent against their will?
(i) Scotland would sink as an independent country.
(ii) Scotland should be an independent country.
In other words they are English "Scottish Nationalists" who are driven by antipathy towards Scotland.
And what these people always say is that Scottish independence should be voted on by the whole of the UK. They want to have a vote on it themselves. Their ideal (in such a referendum) is that Scotland votes No but England votes Yes - meaning the overall result is Yes because England is miles bigger.
Upshot is that rather than Scotland "gaining independence" they are "kicked out".
This is IMO not a good outcome. And it is (effectively) the same outcome that one would get in my hypothetical where England votes to leave the UK, thus breaking up the UK, with Scotland not wanting to be independent.
Hence why I think that, on balance and despite the arguments the other way, only the smaller nations can decide to leave. England can't. Or at least, it's deeply problematical if it does.
In practice the English could vote simply to dissolve the Acts of Union (and whatever legislation annexed the Principality of Wales) - not so much leaving the UK but making it evaporate. If they voted for Brexit, and that was democratic - so would this be. I can't see why not.
The last polling I saw on the subject, it was the Tory/Unionist/"British" nationalist [descriptive, not BNP!]/Brexiter tendency which tended to be happy with losing NI and Scotland. Much of this however was in the context of impending Brexit vote so it was in part - would you rather have your desired Brexit or keep the Union? It would have been crucial if the English vote had been a midgie's bawhair less for Brexit and the Scots were seen as keeping the English unfairly in the EU.
Part of the problem with the idea of the English voting on indyref, BTW, arose, I think, because the Scottish Gmt used a residential qualification for the vote - so that e.g. Mr Cameron ex-PM or Mr Blair were not allowed to vote despite being a Scot by blood (what percentage, I forget). That was partly because of the legislation already in being which defined the franchise for referenda, and partly I imagine because in the absence of a Scottish passport or similar definition of national citizenship there was no legal or practical way to tell a Scot furth of Scotland from other subjects of HMtQ. Hence complaints from such folk (often hostile to indy). Which might have been broadened to the wider English voting publixc perhaps?
Of course, many of the same folk that you speak of would have been furious if one suggested allowing the Germans, say, to have a vote on Brexit. But, to extend the comparison of two supranational organizations further, it would be one thing for the Continentals to kick the British+Nirish out of the EU, but quite another to dissplve the EU by a majority vote (but of what? people? states?).
Just on one of your points -
I think having the electorate defined by residence rather than "blood" supports the notion that Scottish Nationalism is civic not nativist. This is an important differentiator from both the nasty bellicose and the reactionary insular type.
Also (imo) means the movement must die once it has achieved its goal.1 -
Where do you think St Andrew was born?RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
0 -
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
0 -
The problem is that these are still a few months away and he seems to be deteriorating by the day. What a mess.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.0 -
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.2 -
I don't think "presidential experience," is an asset in getting the presidency. If anything, it looks like a hindrance. Unfortunately a good proportion of Democrats were hyped into believing it was by Hillary, despite Secretary of State not leading to the presidency since the mid 19th C, I think anyway.Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.0 -
But that's not how Biden comes across at all. Trump holds forth, he's always performing, and if his sentences aren't coherent at least they're delivered with the right cadence. When Biden runs into difficulty, he gets stiff and wooden and you expect sparks to start flying out of his ears like an AI that's just been told a paradox.Foxy said:
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
And on top of that, Trump actually has a vision and set of values that he's selling. What does Biden have?0 -
Let's face it. If you were in Airdrie there are probably worst ways to spend your afternoon.CarlottaVance said:
St Andrew was crucified in Airdie, right enough......RochdalePioneers said:St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...
3 -
St Edmund the Martyr is an impeccably English saint and was patron saint of England until the 14th century.
He is, by a pleasing coincidence, also the patron saint of pandemics. Perhaps he should be reinstated in the role as a man for our times.1 -
Many poor whites in American are against expanded social security proposals that would benefit them because they do not want undeserving (i.e. black) people to get the benefit.Foxy said:
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.0 -
https://twitter.com/MommaUnfiltered/status/1252338851315683329?s=20Stereotomy said:
But that's not how Biden comes across at all. Trump holds forth, he's always performing, and if his sentences aren't coherent at least they're delivered with the right cadence. When Biden runs into difficulty, he gets stiff and wooden and you expect sparks to start flying out of his ears like an AI that's just been told a paradox.Foxy said:
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
And on top of that, Trump actually has a vision and set of values that he's selling. What does Biden have?1 -
7 days, there is no way Hancock is even going to be close to his self-imposed 100k figure.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253321773480697856?s=200 -
I agree. But for me it boils down to one question. Is he senile? So long as he isn't, imo he wins. And if he is, I trust he will be replaced. Either way, mission accomplished.Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.0 -
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
0 -
Worth noting that the proportion of deaths that are being reported in London is dropping steadily, now down to ~20% (from ~28 in early April). Mostly this is at the expense of the North West. Either the lockdown has more of an obvious effect for some reason, or it was always the case that London was ahead of the rest of the country in terms of progression.0
-
The essential difference compared to last time is that Hillary was reviled by too many ordinary working class Americans, particularly men, who found her condescending and preachy. Joe Biden could not be more different. He comes across as a regular guy you could have a beer with. That's why Trump definitely didn't want him as his opponent.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.1 -
Incidentally tomorrow Statistics Sweden release their updated all causes daily death figures0
-
You know when the government said people wouldn't take lockdown for very long and thus had to be timed correctly.
There is a killer virus out there....but Five Guys has reopened...f##k the virus, I need my double cheese-burger (admittedly Five Guys is good, although better in the US).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248637/Coronavirus-UK-Builders-line-construction-sites-Britain-gets-work.html0 -
On topic, the absence of any boost for Donald Trump for his handling of the pandemic is striking. Pretty well everywhere else the public has given their leader support through these frightening times. He's testing "any publicity is good publicity" to the limit.0
-
Thankfully, 14 days out, we are nowhere near the Henrietta/Eadric prediction of one billion confirmed virus carriers worldwide.FrancisUrquhart said:7 days, there is no way Hancock is even going to be close to his self-imposed 100k figure.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253321773480697856?s=200 -
Biden wouldn't have been my choice, but the facts are there. He fended off a lot of competing rivals.Stereotomy said:
But that's not how Biden comes across at all. Trump holds forth, he's always performing, and if his sentences aren't coherent at least they're delivered with the right cadence. When Biden runs into difficulty, he gets stiff and wooden and you expect sparks to start flying out of his ears like an AI that's just been told a paradox.Foxy said:
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
And on top of that, Trump actually has a vision and set of values that he's selling. What does Biden have?
Intellectual capability is not a very great requirement in politics.
Biden is a bit bland, but not repulsive in the way that Trump is, or a lot of people found Hillary.
I think there will be a strong anti Trump turnout, even for a weak candidate as Biden.
Can you imagine Trumps reaction if beaten by Grandpa Simpson?0 -
Remember that Robert said, the state VI polls only consider those who voted last time. So those under 22 or normally Dem-2016-stay-at-homers are excluded.0
-
How's the Brazilian Trump getting on?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, the absence of any boost for Donald Trump for his handling of the pandemic is striking. Pretty well everywhere else the public has given their leader support through these frightening times. He's testing "any publicity is good publicity" to the limit.
0 -
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.Alistair said:
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.0 -
Mr. Meeks, could be an effect of US politics already being so polarized?
If it is, then victory's still possible for Trump. If not, may bode very ill for him.
For what it's worth, I think he'll lose. But the Wisconsin shenanigans make me wonder if he'll try to queer the pitch.1 -
Where to start? Probably when he damaged the CDC severely by taking away a large chunk of their budget pre crisis. Removing the WHO funding is more recent and just stupid. Forecasts that this would all go away in the Spring have now been repeated for the Fall with no basis. Refusing to involve the Federal authorities in the first outbreaks. A complete reluctance to accept that anything was going to damage his "great" economy. The frankly bizarre promotion of untested and unproven "cures". The usual egotistical crap about it all being about him. Just a complete muppet.TOPPING said:
I don't follow US politics all that closely, save for spunking money up the wall forlornly on Mayor Pete for the Dem nomination.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
How exactly has Trump been so incompetent wrt his response to Covid?1 -
0
-
Chalk and cheese.Foxy said:
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
https://twitter.com/glennwsmith/status/1252057980964610050?s=20
Though Trump would be likely to do some sort of horrible posed version of this if he thought it would be for the greater good of Trump.0 -
Essentially he is the Democrat’s Reagan. If he gets elected, he won’t have a clue what’s going on, and we’ll just have to hope that his clueless affability will be underpinned by people in his team with grip and good judgement.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.0 -
His approval rating is still higher than Macron'sAlastairMeeks said:On topic, the absence of any boost for Donald Trump for his handling of the pandemic is striking. Pretty well everywhere else the public has given their leader support through these frightening times. He's testing "any publicity is good publicity" to the limit.
0 -
Uh
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aaEndillion said:
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.Alistair said:
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.0 -
Ah, but I thought capacity is (in theory) up to 40k or thereabouts? Are they saving up 10-20k test results per day to announce all on April 30, and technically meet the target that way?FrancisUrquhart said:7 days, there is no way Hancock is even going to be close to his self-imposed 100k figure.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253321773480697856?s=20
(And then suddenly back down again the following day.)1 -
I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372
We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?0 -
I know.Alistair said:
Many poor whites in American are against expanded social security proposals that would benefit them because they do not want undeserving (i.e. black) people to get the benefit.Foxy said:
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.HYUFD said:
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).Alistair said:
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.kinabalu said:
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.Alistair said:
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.bigjohnowls said:
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own nameDavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
People want farmers subsidised, but not urbanites, subsidised mortgages rather than rental. It is much the same here, but not as racialised.
There is a great LBJ quote on this:
“I’ll tell you what’s at the bottom of it. If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”1 -
First graph is just WorldOmetereEndillion said:
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.Alistair said:
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
Second is from Sweden's arcgid page: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa0 -
Okay that's mostly rhetoric (apart from the CDC budget and surely plenty of other administrations *cough* the UK *cough* have done similarly).DavidL said:
Where to start? Probably when he damaged the CDC severely by taking away a large chunk of their budget pre crisis. Removing the WHO funding is more recent and just stupid. Forecasts that this would all go away in the Spring have now been repeated for the Fall with no basis. Refusing to involve the Federal authorities in the first outbreaks. A complete reluctance to accept that anything was going to damage his "great" economy. The frankly bizarre promotion of untested and unproven "cures". The usual egotistical crap about it all being about him. Just a complete muppet.TOPPING said:
I don't follow US politics all that closely, save for spunking money up the wall forlornly on Mayor Pete for the Dem nomination.DavidL said:The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
How exactly has Trump been so incompetent wrt his response to Covid?
What about how the pandemic has played out in the US vs other places in terms of death rates, etc?
Edit: plus at least the US has a functioning, visible leader. Unlike, er....0 -
It's interesting how similiar the UK, France and Italy Case fatality rates all are @
France, 13.60%;
UK 13.48%;
Italy 13.39%.
Similiar criteria for testing ?1 -
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!HYUFD said:
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
0 -
This is excellent from Eddie Mair. Pulls the government’s communications apart.
Stay on message.
Save your backside
Keep your job.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/eddie-mairs-powerful-and-eye-opening-scrutiny/0 -
I see. I'd need the data in tabular form, but thanks (to you and @isam) anyway.Alistair said:
First graph is just WorldOmetereEndillion said:
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.Alistair said:
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
Second is from Sweden's arcgid page: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa0 -
Not sure how good these are, but lots of statsEndillion said:
I see. I'd need the data in tabular form, but thanks (to you and @isam) anyway.Alistair said:
First graph is just WorldOmetereEndillion said:
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.Alistair said:
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilariousEndillion said:
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.MaxPB said:
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.Endillion said:
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.MaxPB said:Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
Second is from Sweden's arcgid page: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
https://www.statista.com/topics/6267/coronavirus-covid-19-in-sweden/#dossierContents__outerWrapper0 -
The promise wasn't 100K per day test capacity, but 100k tests per day.FrancisUrquhart said:The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.0 -
"That being white, male and Oxford-educated may not be the only criteria for effective leadership"FrancisUrquhart said:I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372
We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?
She seems to have forgotten that the vaccinologist leading the Oxford project is, erm, Professor Sarah Gilbert.3
