An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?
Bloody hell, she would rather there was no vaccine at all than one made by oppressive white men. And her connection with Oxford looks as strong as Jeffery Archer's.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilarious
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
I don't follow US politics all that closely, save for spunking money up the wall forlornly on Mayor Pete for the Dem nomination.
How exactly has Trump been so incompetent wrt his response to Covid?
Where to start? Probably when he damaged the CDC severely by taking away a large chunk of their budget pre crisis. Removing the WHO funding is more recent and just stupid. Forecasts that this would all go away in the Spring have now been repeated for the Fall with no basis. Refusing to involve the Federal authorities in the first outbreaks. A complete reluctance to accept that anything was going to damage his "great" economy. The frankly bizarre promotion of untested and unproven "cures". The usual egotistical crap about it all being about him. Just a complete muppet.
Okay that's mostly rhetoric (apart from the CDC budget and surely plenty of other administrations *cough* the UK *cough* have done similarly).
What about how the pandemic has played out in the US vs other places in terms of death rates, etc?
Edit: plus at least the US has a functioning, visible leader. Unlike, er....
The UK is now the single largest donor to WHO. Our aid budget has been critical in keeping UN capacity to help refugees and displaced persons going in recent years. The US now has more than 25% of deaths in the world from the virus and the share is increasing (assuming you believe China of course). A 9/11 is now happening in the US every day. "Functioning" is an extremely generous assessment.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Why not an extra day off in June, July, or early August - which would for many be a subsidy on their annual holiday? Better weather is when we want more time off.
Shop owners in Glasgow are struggling to keep up with demand for tonic wine Buckfast and fear they will run out after production was halted due to Covid-19.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).
Essentially he is the Democrat’s Reagan. If he gets elected, he won’t have a clue what’s going on, and we’ll just have to hope that his clueless affability will be underpinned by people in his team with grip and good judgement.
Reagan won the 1984 election before he showed signs of dementia.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
Well, it does very explicitly celebrate someone being burned alive. I have never seen why the passage of time makes that kind of thing acceptable (cf The London Dungeon and the Catherine wheel).
Ah, but I thought capacity is (in theory) up to 40k or thereabouts? Are they saving up 10-20k test results per day to announce all on April 30, and technically meet the target that way?
They aren't going to hit the 100k tests per day, but seems they think they'll get pretty close on capacity - of course it's shifting the goalposts, but at the same time it's still meaningful progress.
Rumour a while back was the intent was to top up the numbers with a flood of antibody tests, but those have turned out to be at the chocolate teapot level of usefulness.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Why not an extra day off in June, July, or early August - which would for many be a subsidy on their annual holiday? Better weather is when we want more time off.
Fair point – late July perhaps to coincide with the start of the school holidays.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
Many poor whites in American are against expanded social security proposals that would benefit them because they do not want undeserving (i.e. black) people to get the benefit.
People want farmers subsidised, but not urbanites, subsidised mortgages rather than rental. It is much the same here, but not as racialised.
There is a great LBJ quote on this:
“I’ll tell you what’s at the bottom of it. If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”
Only a pawn in the Game puts it even better. One of Dylan's very best songs.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
Thankfully, 14 days out, we are nowhere near the Henrietta/Eadric prediction of one billion confirmed virus carriers worldwide.
I think the perhaps, that while it is crazily infectious in the right environment - confined spaces with lots of people - it doesn't jump so quickly between those spaces.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
A hypothetical for you -
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
That's easy. If England votes to leave the UK then England should leave it. Same if the roles were reversed, then Scotland should leave. If Scotland had voted to leave the UK in its referendum then England not wanting to do so wouldn't have been relevant.
My principle is that if its not a prison anyone can choose to leave freely if that is their choice.
OK. But make the (reasonable) assumption that England leaving means the total breakup of the UK.
Are you not (in our hypothetical) forcing 3 nations to be independent against their will?
We had similar discussions in 2013-2014. One thing that became very clear was that the English would fight to the end to equate England = United Kingdom (even though the dissolution of the unions with Ireland and Scotland would abolish the UK de jure and de facto), partly because of their self-perception and partly because of such things as the UN Security Council seat. Ergo you would end up with two UKs - neither of which would actually meet that description!
I'm interested in this aspect because of something I've noticed about a certain type of Englishman who I've come across from time to time. These types will hold both of the following views -
(i) Scotland would sink as an independent country.
(ii) Scotland should be an independent country.
In other words they are English "Scottish Nationalists" who are driven by antipathy towards Scotland.
And what these people always say is that Scottish independence should be voted on by the whole of the UK. They want to have a vote on it themselves. Their ideal (in such a referendum) is that Scotland votes No but England votes Yes - meaning the overall result is Yes because England is miles bigger.
Upshot is that rather than Scotland "gaining independence" they are "kicked out".
This is IMO not a good outcome. And it is (effectively) the same outcome that one would get in my hypothetical where England votes to leave the UK, thus breaking up the UK, with Scotland not wanting to be independent.
Hence why I think that, on balance and despite the arguments the other way, only the smaller nations can decide to leave. England can't. Or at least, it's deeply problematical if it does.
FPT - to respond to you - I do remember that tendency from the indyref arguments here and elsewhere.
In practice the English could vote simply to dissolve the Acts of Union (and whatever legislation annexed the Principality of Wales) - not so much leaving the UK but making it evaporate. If they voted for Brexit, and that was democratic - so would this be. I can't see why not.
The last polling I saw on the subject, it was the Tory/Unionist/"British" nationalist [descriptive, not BNP!]/Brexiter tendency which tended to be happy with losing NI and Scotland. Much of this however was in the context of impending Brexit vote so it was in part - would you rather have your desired Brexit or keep the Union? It would have been crucial if the English vote had been a midgie's bawhair less for Brexit and the Scots were seen as keeping the English unfairly in the EU.
Part of the problem with the idea of the English voting on indyref, BTW, arose, I think, because the Scottish Gmt used a residential qualification for the vote - so that e.g. Mr Cameron ex-PM or Mr Blair were not allowed to vote despite being a Scot by blood (what percentage, I forget). That was partly because of the legislation already in being which defined the franchise for referenda, and partly I imagine because in the absence of a Scottish passport or similar definition of national citizenship there was no legal or practical way to tell a Scot furth of Scotland from other subjects of HMtQ. Hence complaints from such folk (often hostile to indy). Which might have been broadened to the wider English voting publixc perhaps?
Of course, many of the same folk that you speak of would have been furious if one suggested allowing the Germans, say, to have a vote on Brexit. But, to extend the comparison of two supranational organizations further, it would be one thing for the Continentals to kick the British+Nirish out of the EU, but quite another to dissplve the EU by a majority vote (but of what? people? states?).
Thanks for response.
Just on one of your points -
I think having the electorate defined by residence rather than "blood" supports the notion that Scottish Nationalism is civic not nativist. This is an important differentiator from both the nasty bellicose and the reactionary insular type.
Also (imo) means the movement must die once it has achieved its goal.
It's not just the SNP - there's the wider pro-indy movement, including elements of Labour and many of the Greens, of course. Not the same thing. I think the SNP would lose some of the pro-indy vote but gain the centrist social democratic vote that was against indy. How the other parties would fare I dunno. At the very least, the Scottish Labour Party, or its pro-indy spinoff, could revive after independence. Not so sure what would happen to the Tories - they have the same problem in a sense, in that their only policy statement has been No to Independence over the last few years, apart from a reverse ferret to support Brexit of late.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Even more so with a late Easter.
A bank holiday early July might be nice to kick off the summer. St Swithins Day? Impeccably English, no dark side. Right time of year and good cause to complain if a wet Bank Holiday.
If they were doing say 70-80k tests a day and said well we have 100k capacity, i think they would be ok with the spin. But when you have barely increased the number of tests, its looks ridiculous.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).
What LBJ got right was to roll out his Great Society programme equally to poor rural white Americans and to poor urban black Americans.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
Worth noting that the proportion of deaths that are being reported in London is dropping steadily, now down to ~20% (from ~28 in early April). Mostly this is at the expense of the North West. Either the lockdown has more of an obvious effect for some reason, or it was always the case that London was ahead of the rest of the country in terms of progression.
IIRC London was 2 or 3 weeks ahead.
IMO one bad decision was not closing the tube before controls everywhere.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
American voters quite like that democracy of taste. Trump is obnoxiously rich, but spends his money on gold doors, golf and McDonald's, so not out of line with the Average Joe, just richer.
Joe Biden comes over the same. You can imagine him with a Philly steak and cheese whizz at the ball game.
Pelosi has a freezer full of ice cream, but who wouldn't quite like that? It would be more of a problem if it were escargot.
People choose their politicians intuitively and emotionally, then rationalise it intellectually. That is why May was a disaster and Johnson a hit.
I do wonder if Starmer can strike those notes.
I'm sure Johnson is a hit in the pub, but I get the impression he's the sort of chap who'd be the life and should of the party until he left and everyone realised he'd never bought a round. Starmer's got the quiet confident air of a family lawyer or doctor. Sort of chap you'd turn to in a crisis.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
Well, it does very explicitly celebrate someone being burned alive. I have never seen why the passage of time makes that kind of thing acceptable (cf The London Dungeon and the Catherine wheel).
There is the Crucifixion - but that is a special case.
I was quite shaken to read recently how people were broken on the wheel (in a fascinating history of a Grman hereditary executioner and his family in late mediaeval/early modern times).
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
American voters quite like that democracy of taste. Trump is obnoxiously rich, but spends his money on gold doors, golf and McDonald's, so not out of line with the Average Joe, just richer.
Joe Biden comes over the same. You can imagine him with a Philly steak and cheese whizz at the ball game.
Pelosi has a freezer full of ice cream, but who wouldn't quite like that? It would be more of a problem if it were escargot.
People choose their politicians intuitively and emotionally, then rationalise it intellectually. That is why May was a disaster and Johnson a hit.
I do wonder if Starmer can strike those notes.
I'm sure Johnson is a hit in the pub, but I get the impression he's the sort of chap who'd be the life and should of the party until he left and everyone realised he'd never bought a round. Starmer's got the quiet confident air of a family lawyer or doctor. Sort of chap you'd turn to in a crisis.
If his damning letter to the government yesterday is anything to go by, no, he isn't.
Offering up all your citizens as a control group in an experiment that could result in widespread death seems a jaw-droppingly mad thing for an elected official to do, even in the US and even in Las Vegas.
I did the enjoy the following line, though: Goodman said it should be up to casinos to weigh the odds of spreading the virus.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
If we want another holiday, and in light of current events, then perhaps NHS day. It apparently went live on 5th July 1948 - so first Monday in July would both be roughly right and also coincidentally at a great time. It's also something all of the nations share in equally.
Even better throw in Trafalgar day and we can both feel chummy with our real friends and poke fun at our true enemies .
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Do I really need to explain why? When I mention that the English day for fireworks is 5th November overseas, the reply that comes back is "are you still celebrating the execution of Catholics?"
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Anti-Catholicism. Also - and a more important issue to many now - pollution and terrifying pets.
FFS, the likes of Sky News are still talking utter shit when it comes to the death numbers, banging on about it relating to deaths in a 24hr period and there is a rise in deaths.
No it doesn't and all indications are no it hasn't.
No wonder these idiots can't even find data of the ONS website.
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
You and me have got this one. Trump is toast and he's only getting crisper.
I think Biden has plenty of scope to fuck this up. I think he is a rank rotten candidate.
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Biden is the least intellectual Democratic nominee since LBJ (and LBJ likely had the higher iq of the 2) but he has more charisma than Hillary did against Trump or Kerry did against Bush and charisma tends to be key in US elections (though Trump has charisma too of course).
Essentially he is the Democrat’s Reagan. If he gets elected, he won’t have a clue what’s going on, and we’ll just have to hope that his clueless affability will be underpinned by people in his team with grip and good judgement.
How much of that capability is still there is an interesting question. But in any event, the calibre of people he surrounds himself with will be massively better than Trump's team of ridiculous.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Even more so with a late Easter.
A bank holiday early July might be nice to kick off the summer. St Swithins Day? Impeccably English, no dark side. Right time of year and good cause to complain if a wet Bank Holiday.
Today feels like the 27th sunny bank holiday in a row. I'm not terribly fussed if i never see another.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Anti-Catholicism. Also - and a more important issue to many now - pollution and terrifying pets.
In fairness - I realise I've been reading too many 19th century social histories. I retract that anti-RC element - so far as I know not significant today, unless anyone knows better. But as already pointged out by another PBer, it celebrates something a bit gruesome (burning alive).
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Do I really need to explain why? When I mention that the English day for fireworks is 5th November overseas, the reply that comes back is "are you still celebrating the execution of Catholics?"
I'd say it's ambiguous whether people are celebrating the execution of Catholics or mourning the failure of the plot.
On topic, the absence of any boost for Donald Trump for his handling of the pandemic is striking. Pretty well everywhere else the public has given their leader support through these frightening times. He's testing "any publicity is good publicity" to the limit.
His approval rating is still higher than Macron's
Yes, but Macron has zero chance of winning November's election.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
I'm not convinced that everyone taking the same day off and crowding into the same places (even without the virus) is a good idea, but having it in autumn if so is a better idea.
To be honest, I wonder what proportion of Englishpeople know that today is St G's Day, or who he was or what he's got to do with England (something about a dragon, right?), and as noted in the poll, there isn't even a consensus that flying the flag is a good idea. People who do know all these things and are fond of the idea are free to take the day off to celebrate if they want to, why not? But it's not suitable as a joint holiday to mark something we all share in.
I suspect Boris is more likely to declare an NHS Day, to mark the date when the number of deaths from the virus hits 0.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
Well, it does very explicitly celebrate someone being burned alive. I have never seen why the passage of time makes that kind of thing acceptable (cf The London Dungeon and the Catherine wheel).
There is the Crucifixion - but that is a special case.
I was quite shaken to read recently how people were broken on the wheel (in a fascinating history of a Grman hereditary executioner and his family in late mediaeval/early modern times).
We "celebrate" Good Friday in a spirit of mourning, and there's the What happened next? element to it. So as you say, very different.
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
But that's not how Biden comes across at all. Trump holds forth, he's always performing, and if his sentences aren't coherent at least they're delivered with the right cadence. When Biden runs into difficulty, he gets stiff and wooden and you expect sparks to start flying out of his ears like an AI that's just been told a paradox.
And on top of that, Trump actually has a vision and set of values that he's selling. What does Biden have?
Biden wouldn't have been my choice, but the facts are there. He fended off a lot of competing rivals.
Intellectual capability is not a very great requirement in politics.
Biden is a bit bland, but not repulsive in the way that Trump is, or a lot of people found Hillary.
I think there will be a strong anti Trump turnout, even for a weak candidate as Biden.
Can you imagine Trumps reaction if beaten by Grandpa Simpson?
The worrying thing is what Trump might do in the intervening period before inauguration day.
However, not so worrying as what he might do during the subsequent 4 years if he actually wins....
The staggering incompetence and incoherence of Trump in relation to Covid, along with the economic calamity that this is going to bring to these States makes it slightly surprising that it is as close as this. Trump really needs a game changer such as a US produced vaccine which is then efficiently and competently delivered. Not sure I fancy his chances right now.
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
Cant see how Biden copes with head to head debates when he cant remember his own name
He dispatched Sanders fine in a head-to-head.
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
I don't think rambling folksiness plays badly in America at all. Incoherence didn't harm Trump.
American voters quite like that democracy of taste. Trump is obnoxiously rich, but spends his money on gold doors, golf and McDonald's, so not out of line with the Average Joe, just richer.
Joe Biden comes over the same. You can imagine him with a Philly steak and cheese whizz at the ball game.
Pelosi has a freezer full of ice cream, but who wouldn't quite like that? It would be more of a problem if it were escargot.
People choose their politicians intuitively and emotionally, then rationalise it intellectually. That is why May was a disaster and Johnson a hit.
I do wonder if Starmer can strike those notes.
I'm sure Johnson is a hit in the pub, but I get the impression he's the sort of chap who'd be the life and should of the party until he left and everyone realised he'd never bought a round. Starmer's got the quiet confident air of a family lawyer or doctor. Sort of chap you'd turn to in a crisis.
Or at least rely on to stand his round. Even if his conversation's a bit dull.
The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.
Are the labs where they do the analysis, not the test?
There's going to be a huge dustup as to whether taking the swap or delivering the result constitutes "doing a test", isn't there?
Word of warning on leaked map...I hope the journalists behind this haven't gone and done a Guardian...higher proportion of BAME have died than as a % of the population, but we didn't normalize for things like location of hotspots.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
Well, it does very explicitly celebrate someone being burned alive. I have never seen why the passage of time makes that kind of thing acceptable (cf The London Dungeon and the Catherine wheel).
There is the Crucifixion - but that is a special case.
I was quite shaken to read recently how people were broken on the wheel (in a fascinating history of a Grman hereditary executioner and his family in late mediaeval/early modern times).
We "celebrate" Good Friday in a spirit of mourning, and there's the What happened next? element to it. So as you say, very different.
That's a good point actually in terms of the wider discussion of events to mark with a holiday. Is one 'celebrating' or 'commemorating' an event? Very different things, sometimes, depending on one's politics too.
The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.
Are the labs where they do the analysis, not the test?
There's going to be a huge dustup as to whether taking the swap or delivering the result constitutes "doing a test", isn't there?
I think that the numbers reported are tests completed rather than performed, but I could be mistaken.
Love Eddie Mair. He was always brilliant on PM, and with a much wider latitude available on LBC he doesn't mince his words...
The Gov't needs to decide, and let know whether those people that can work at home are going to be advised to do so till a vaccine is out. If so, we can plan - for instance paying annually for GotomyPC instead of monthly. Just a tiny example but there'll be ways SMEs can work round it. Knowing would be grand mind.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Even more so with a late Easter.
A bank holiday early July might be nice to kick off the summer. St Swithins Day? Impeccably English, no dark side. Right time of year and good cause to complain if a wet Bank Holiday.
Today feels like the 27th sunny bank holiday in a row. I'm not terribly fussed if i never see another.
One way to get the economy going again would be to deduct weeks on lockdown from Annusl Leave allowance for the fin year. We have had splendid weather and it is like having summer early.
I wouldn't want to be the politician proposing it though!
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
I'm not convinced that everyone taking the same day off and crowding into the same places (even without the virus) is a good idea, but having it in autumn if so is a better idea.
To be honest, I wonder what proportion of Englishpeople know that today is St G's Day, or who he was or what he's got to do with England (something about a dragon, right?), and as noted in the poll, there isn't even a consensus that flying the flag is a good idea. People who do know all these things and are fond of the idea are free to take the day off to celebrate if they want to, why not? But it's not suitable as a joint holiday to mark something we all share in.
I suspect Boris is more likely to declare an NHS Day, to mark the date when the number of deaths from the virus hits 0.
St. Crispin's Day, then. It marks a famous victory against the French, and also, as he's the patron saint of cobblers, it needn't be taken too seriously.
Updated chart for 7 day cumulative deaths for England by date of death.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
Not to cast aspersions on your predictive powers, but if I understand correctly, you predicted around 4 more deaths and it came out as 2? Difficult to see how you could be very wrong when 90-95% of the deaths are already in by day 6, and typically only another 1-2% will be added on day 7.
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
Yesterday I said 560 for the 17th and 520 for the 18th. I think both will be correct to within 2%.
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
My model says 557 and 533 - you might be a little low on the 18th, but probably not very far out. 19th currently heading to around 500 by end of day 7.
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Swedens Daily announced figure after weekends is absolutely hilarious
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
First graph is clearly a Fourier transform of the second one.
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
Every known type of statistical malpractice is being repeated each day both intentionally and through ignorance. There will be a wonderful teaching archive.
Love Eddie Mair. He was always brilliant on PM, and with a much wider latitude available on LBC he doesn't mince his words...
The Gov't needs to decide, and let know whether those people that can work at home are going to be advised to do so till a vaccine is out. If so, we can plan - for instance paying annually for GotomyPC instead of monthly. Just a tiny example but there'll be ways SMEs can work round it. Knowing would be grand mind.
Gotomypc has got too expensive, we have saved a lot by using Splashtop instead, which is nearly as good and much cheaper.
The same way people wish we had more politicians who had been scientists like Merkel, i think we need a lot more political journalists who were scentists, because they clearly understand f##k all about anything technical.
The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.
The promise wasn't 100K per day test capacity, but 100k tests per day.
It would allow political cover for argument if the former were achieved though. Which is probably more than they expected as of a week ago.
Every known type of statistical malpractice is being repeated each day both intentionally and through ignorance. There will be a wonderful teaching archive.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Do I really need to explain why? When I mention that the English day for fireworks is 5th November overseas, the reply that comes back is "are you still celebrating the execution of Catholics?"
Why does it need to celebrate something? Why not just "Autumn Bank Holiday" al la "Late Summer Bank Holiday" and "Spring Bank Holiday". You don't need an excuse.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Do I really need to explain why? When I mention that the English day for fireworks is 5th November overseas, the reply that comes back is "are you still celebrating the execution of Catholics?"
Only treasonous Catholics.
Although being serious I thought calling it bonfire night rather than guy fawkes night was part of it being more pc by making it simply about bonfires and fireworks without the explicit connection to execution.
The capacity for testing has reached 48,273 tests a day.
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.
Are the labs where they do the analysis, not the test?
There's going to be a huge dustup as to whether taking the swap or delivering the result constitutes "doing a test", isn't there?
At the moment taking the swabs seems to be more of a problem than processing them afterwards, so I doubt that will be the case.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
I'm not convinced that everyone taking the same day off and crowding into the same places (even without the virus) is a good idea, but having it in autumn if so is a better idea.
To be honest, I wonder what proportion of Englishpeople know that today is St G's Day, or who he was or what he's got to do with England (something about a dragon, right?), and as noted in the poll, there isn't even a consensus that flying the flag is a good idea. People who do know all these things and are fond of the idea are free to take the day off to celebrate if they want to, why not? But it's not suitable as a joint holiday to mark something we all share in.
I suspect Boris is more likely to declare an NHS Day, to mark the date when the number of deaths from the virus hits 0.
I was always confused at why Team Corbyn were so keen on the idea when bank holidays can be counted by employers as statutory leave, ie the same leave, but less ability to use it.
If we need an extra bank holiday, let everyone get their own birthday, or the nearest Monday thereafter, as their own personal bank holiday. Spread through the year, and minimises the productivity costs. Worst of all I'm only half joking.
After nightmarish economic data today BoE policymaker Jan Vleighe says the UK is suffering the fastest and deepest slump in 'possibly several centuries.'
And so I repeat my mantra. Lockdown and its extension is the worst policy decision by any government ever in the history of British government decisions.
The only thing that's changing is the degree to which it is the worst decision.
Made all the more tragic that it is basically a disease that kills retired people who are no longer of working age.
It would be perfectly possible to lock down the oldies (a voluntary lockdown, at that) while the rest of us get on with our business.
It wouldn't be a complete return to normal, large events and gatherings would still be cancelled, people wearing masks on public transport etc. Things to reduce the spread.
But the economy could re-open tomorrow, starting with the under 45s and moving to the under 65s as we build up NHS capacity.
It is a completely unnecessary self-inflicted immolation of the economy which we will all end up paying for. For many years.
For now we are in the phony war. People are on furlough, still being paid. But as the money runs out, the redundancies happen, the businesses collapse, the social security bill becomes overwhelming and the tax base shrinks to a fraction of its former size, plenty of us will be here to say "I told you so".
I tend to be on the end the lockdown sooner rather than later but also, perhaps primarily because of the mental health issues.
I would say the majority of us here on PB are doing ok. I'm going to go with strongly, perhaps overwhelmingly ABC1 (Mike's advertisers please note).
We might have houses and gardens and access to the big outdoors.
Not so many, many others. Plus however many acres one might be able to amble around, the children (and I am taking the UN definition here of <18yrs old) must be suffering tremendously. Many have been wrenched from their schools, friends, exams, support networks.
For the most part, they can't jump onto chatrooms and have diverting and in depth conversations around train guages or R*d**h**d or, you know, what to put on pizzas.
For these people it must end and I realise I am committing the ultimate internet offence of won't someone think of the children but in this case I think they must.</p>
The lockdown is and should be a temporary measure.
The disease was running out of control and threatening NHS capacity. It needed strong measures to bring under control.
The interim period has been used to build capacity and strengthen supply lines. There are still things the government can do to enhance this.
Once preparations are in place then they can progressively lift the lockdown. I’m sure there will be some issues but fundamentally they should be judged on whether they can resuscitate the economy while not crashing the NHS. If they fail at either they should be criticised. But to complain based on “growth is anaemic” or “I had to wait 2 weeks for an appointment” or “1 hospital was down to its last 2 days PPE supply” is unreasonable
RE 5 November, Bin Laden has a lot to answer for. Before he came along, Lewes had a strict “Catholics only” rule, meaning they went for very petty targets like Anthea Turner. Then 9/11 happened and since then they’ve blown up any old Tom, Dick or Harry.
An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
I didn't know that, actually.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
Do I really need to explain why? When I mention that the English day for fireworks is 5th November overseas, the reply that comes back is "are you still celebrating the execution of Catholics?"
Only treasonous Catholics.
Although being serious I thought calling it bonfire night rather than guy fawkes night was part of it being more pc by making it simply about bonfires and fireworks without the explicit connection to execution.
I had a hilarious moment when I explained the origin of Bonfire Night to some Polish and South American Catholics. I even got called a killjoy for suggesting it was bit strange they were so keen on it - "but the kids love it"....
RE 5 November, Bin Laden has a lot to answer for. Before he came along, Lewes had a strict “Catholics only” rule, meaning they went for very petty target like Anthea Turner. Then 9/11 happened and since then they’ve blown up any old Tom, Dick or Harry.
RE 5 November, Bin Laden has a lot to answer for. Before he came along, Lewes had a strict “Catholics only” rule, meaning they went for very petty target like Anthea Turner. Then 9/11 happened and since then they’ve blown up any old Tom, Dick or Harry.
Bloody Arsenal fans.
Having Piers Morgan as a fellow supporter is far worse. Even if he did make this happen:
Comments
Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
To his credit he said the latter.
Not stopped every Tory politician talking about capacity for dies now though. Charlie Stayt was having no shit this morning mind
Shop owners in Glasgow are struggling to keep up with demand for tonic wine Buckfast and fear they will run out after production was halted due to Covid-19.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XTwPjI5l4d_xZAXOQy72LU8eRoPJyfU6fp9Hgx1flUo/edit?usp=sharing
Rumour a while back was the intent was to top up the numbers with a flood of antibody tests, but those have turned out to be at the chocolate teapot level of usefulness.
Either that or a horrendous euphemism.
A bank holiday early July might be nice to kick off the summer. St Swithins Day? Impeccably English, no dark side. Right time of year and good cause to complain if a wet Bank Holiday.
IMO one bad decision was not closing the tube before controls everywhere.
Starmer's got the quiet confident air of a family lawyer or doctor. Sort of chap you'd turn to in a crisis.
I was quite shaken to read recently how people were broken on the wheel (in a fascinating history of a Grman hereditary executioner and his family in late mediaeval/early modern times).
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/22/las-vegas-mayor-coronavirus-carolyn-goodman
Offering up all your citizens as a control group in an experiment that could result in widespread death seems a jaw-droppingly mad thing for an elected official to do, even in the US and even in Las Vegas.
I did the enjoy the following line, though:
Goodman said it should be up to casinos to weigh the odds of spreading the virus.
Well, if anyone can...
Even better throw in Trafalgar day and we can both feel chummy with our real friends and poke fun at our true enemies
No it doesn't and all indications are no it hasn't.
No wonder these idiots can't even find data of the ONS website.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/joe-biden-oversaw-recovery-during-last-recession/609646/
How much of that capability is still there is an interesting question. But in any event, the calibre of people he surrounds himself with will be massively better than Trump's team of ridiculous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY
To be honest, I wonder what proportion of Englishpeople know that today is St G's Day, or who he was or what he's got to do with England (something about a dragon, right?), and as noted in the poll, there isn't even a consensus that flying the flag is a good idea. People who do know all these things and are fond of the idea are free to take the day off to celebrate if they want to, why not? But it's not suitable as a joint holiday to mark something we all share in.
I suspect Boris is more likely to declare an NHS Day, to mark the date when the number of deaths from the virus hits 0.
However, not so worrying as what he might do during the subsequent 4 years if he actually wins....
Even if his conversation's a bit dull.
https://twitter.com/barnes_farnes/status/1253331601758380034?s=19
UK cases ahead of France
Sweden still doing OK.
Russia not.
Worrying uptick in Nigeria.
57th in the world on tests per million down from 50th a week ago.
Iceland have carried out a test rate of 13% per million population
I wouldn't want to be the politician proposing it though!
It marks a famous victory against the French, and also, as he's the patron saint of cobblers, it needn't be taken too seriously.
Vitamin D from doctors?
TB jabs?
Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly
Anyhoo I’m rooting for everybody including Oxford to find a vaccine PDQ.
The question we need answering why does Dr Cousens want more BAME people to die rather than let the white folks at Oxford find a vaccine?
Is she a member of a far right organisation like the EDL or Bolton era UKIP ?
Coronavirus: 'Murder threats' to telecoms engineers over 5G.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-52395771
The '5G WIFI IS BAD' graffiti shows we're dealing with bellends who have no understanding of how this technology.
See for example this thread:
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464
If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
We could call it happy treason days you ungrateful colonials/we'd rather have India day.
Although being serious I thought calling it bonfire night rather than guy fawkes night was part of it being more pc by making it simply about bonfires and fireworks without the explicit connection to execution.
If we need an extra bank holiday, let everyone get their own birthday, or the nearest Monday thereafter, as their own personal bank holiday. Spread through the year, and minimises the productivity costs. Worst of all I'm only half joking.
The disease was running out of control and threatening NHS capacity. It needed strong measures to bring under control.
The interim period has been used to build capacity and strengthen supply lines. There are still things the government can do to enhance this.
Once preparations are in place then they can progressively lift the lockdown. I’m sure there will be some issues but fundamentally they should be judged on whether they can resuscitate the economy while not crashing the NHS. If they fail at either they should be criticised. But to complain based on “growth is anaemic” or “I had to wait 2 weeks for an appointment” or “1 hospital was down to its last 2 days PPE supply” is unreasonable
https://www.flickr.com/photos/qwghlm/46914328