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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 sta
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling has Biden ahead in his three “MUST WIN” WH2020 states
As we saw at WH2016 the national US vote totals are irrelvant in deciding the presidency but it is what is going on in the most marginal states that will give us the best indication. So over the coming months indivdual polls from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvsnia are going to get a lot of attntion.
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1253128486769823744?s=20
As for Biden, probably the less coverage he gets the better.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/crispr-gene-editing-may-help-scale-up-coronavirus-testing/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+ScientificAmerican-News+(Content:+News)
I would say the majority of us here on PB are doing ok. I'm going to go with strongly, perhaps overwhelmingly ABC1 (Mike's advertisers please note).
We might have houses and gardens and access to the big outdoors.
Not so many, many others. Plus however many acres one might be able to amble around, the children (and I am taking the UN definition here of <18yrs old) must be suffering tremendously. Many have been wrenched from their schools, friends, exams, support networks.
For the most part, they can't jump onto chatrooms and have diverting and in depth conversations around train guages or R*d**h**d or, you know, what to put on pizzas.
For these people it must end and I realise I am committing the ultimate internet offence of won't someone think of the children but in this case I think they must.
When was the last truly impressive candidate for the US presidency? Evan McMullin doesn't count. Obama, I suppose, if you're that way inclined. Kerry didn't seem too bad.
Yesterday I said around 600 for the 16th, it came out at 598.
514 deaths announced for England.
I'll update the rest of the charts later, time for lunch.
How exactly has Trump been so incompetent wrt his response to Covid?
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1253278538091855872?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1253268296666939399?s=20
Plus Bush Snr v Bill Clinton
The talking down of Biden's debate skill is getting to Bush W levels. He just needs to turn up and not drool and he'll be given a standing ovation by the press at this point.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bodies-en.png
Trump saying virus will not come back in the 'Fall' and being contradicted immediately. It's not just Fauci, there are other doctors telling it like it is.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/dr-michael-osterholm-says-high-amount-of-transmission-to-come-82441285976
The trick is predicting where the 3-4 most recent days will end up, which is why I agree that the day 7 figures are a useful thing to look at - good balance between development % and recency (and hence relevance).
Biden said during the appearance that he expects his list of finalists to be down to just two or three names by July, just one month before the rescheduled Democratic National Convention."
Scooped by investigative reporter James Corden.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/22/joe-biden-says-he-will-name-running-mate-by-may-1/
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1253315409312432133?s=20
In practice the English could vote simply to dissolve the Acts of Union (and whatever legislation annexed the Principality of Wales) - not so much leaving the UK but making it evaporate. If they voted for Brexit, and that was democratic - so would this be. I can't see why not.
The last polling I saw on the subject, it was the Tory/Unionist/"British" nationalist [descriptive, not BNP!]/Brexiter tendency which tended to be happy with losing NI and Scotland. Much of this however was in the context of impending Brexit vote so it was in part - would you rather have your desired Brexit or keep the Union? It would have been crucial if the English vote had been a midgie's bawhair less for Brexit and the Scots were seen as keeping the English unfairly in the EU.
Part of the problem with the idea of the English voting on indyref, BTW, arose, I think, because the Scottish Gmt used a residential qualification for the vote - so that e.g. Mr Cameron ex-PM or Mr Blair were not allowed to vote despite being a Scot by blood (what percentage, I forget). That was partly because of the legislation already in being which defined the franchise for referenda, and partly I imagine because in the absence of a Scottish passport or similar definition of national citizenship there was no legal or practical way to tell a Scot furth of Scotland from other subjects of HMtQ. Hence complaints from such folk (often hostile to indy). Which might have been broadened to the wider English voting publixc perhaps?
Of course, many of the same folk that you speak of would have been furious if one suggested allowing the Germans, say, to have a vote on Brexit. But, to extend the comparison of two supranational organizations further, it would be one thing for the Continentals to kick the British+Nirish out of the EU, but quite another to dissplve the EU by a majority vote (but of what? people? states?).
But he's not as bad on some here are projecting him as.
Bouncing about a bit. Apr23 a 9 point gap, but the gap repeatedly closed to zero then opened up again. Nice graph of average polling here.....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Also Trump hated him, so.
I agree that the 3 day figure should be used for predictions, once I'm furloughed I'll put all of the data in BQ and use a linear regression to try and get a better handle on how day 3 can be extrapolated to day 7 and day 14.
American voters quite like that democracy of taste. Trump is obnoxiously rich, but spends his money on gold doors, golf and McDonald's, so not out of line with the Average Joe, just richer.
Joe Biden comes over the same. You can imagine him with a Philly steak and cheese whizz at the ball game.
Pelosi has a freezer full of ice cream, but who wouldn't quite like that? It would be more of a problem if it were escargot.
People choose their politicians intuitively and emotionally, then rationalise it intellectually. That is why May was a disaster and Johnson a hit.
I do wonder if Starmer can strike those notes.
https://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/28/cnn.poll/index.html
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/govscot:document/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making.pdf
Fifty mobile laboratories are planned to help the coronavirus testing effort, the prime minister’s spokesman said. He said four mobile laboratories were already operating, including in Teesside, the Isle of Wight and Salford. There are 28 drive-through testing centres already open, and the government wants to extend that to 50 by the end of the month.
4 at the moment...and still only 28 drive-throughs...I think we can see the problem here.
St Priti would cover a lot of bases for you lot (except saintliness of course).
Just on one of your points -
I think having the electorate defined by residence rather than "blood" supports the notion that Scottish Nationalism is civic not nativist. This is an important differentiator from both the nasty bellicose and the reactionary insular type.
Also (imo) means the movement must die once it has achieved its goal.
Linear regression is an interesting idea. I'm using this model:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chain-ladder-method-clm.asp
which is the insurance industry's standard way of projecting ultimate claim numbers (and amounts), based on incomplete data that has reporting delays attached. It relies on the principle that reporting patterns are the same as observed historically (or at least that you can adjust for known changes). For the current situation, the reporting has been speeding up for the past few weeks, and there are known distortions caused by weekend reporting.
Welfare in America is seen in very racial terms now.
And on top of that, Trump actually has a vision and set of values that he's selling. What does Biden have?
He is, by a pleasing coincidence, also the patron saint of pandemics. Perhaps he should be reinstated in the role as a man for our times.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1253321773480697856?s=20
Here is their daily announced figure
vs actual day of death registered figure (obviously the most recent figures in this graph are badly lagged)
There is a killer virus out there....but Five Guys has reopened...f##k the virus, I need my double cheese-burger (admittedly Five Guys is good, although better in the US).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248637/Coronavirus-UK-Builders-line-construction-sites-Britain-gets-work.html
Intellectual capability is not a very great requirement in politics.
Biden is a bit bland, but not repulsive in the way that Trump is, or a lot of people found Hillary.
I think there will be a strong anti Trump turnout, even for a weak candidate as Biden.
Can you imagine Trumps reaction if beaten by Grandpa Simpson?
Do you have a link for the underlying data, please? I'd be interested in comparing the development pattern to the one for the UK.
If it is, then victory's still possible for Trump. If not, may bode very ill for him.
For what it's worth, I think he'll lose. But the Wisconsin shenanigans make me wonder if he'll try to queer the pitch.
Why the East West divide?
https://twitter.com/john2017abc/status/1252898625497305089?s=21
https://twitter.com/glennwsmith/status/1252057980964610050?s=20
Though Trump would be likely to do some sort of horrible posed version of this if he thought it would be for the greater good of Trump.
(And then suddenly back down again the following day.)
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372
We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?
People want farmers subsidised, but not urbanites, subsidised mortgages rather than rental. It is much the same here, but not as racialised.
There is a great LBJ quote on this:
“I’ll tell you what’s at the bottom of it. If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”
Second is from Sweden's arcgid page: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
What about how the pandemic has played out in the US vs other places in terms of death rates, etc?
Edit: plus at least the US has a functioning, visible leader. Unlike, er....
France, 13.60%;
UK 13.48%;
Italy 13.39%.
Similiar criteria for testing ?
One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
Stay on message.
Save your backside
Keep your job.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/eddie-mairs-powerful-and-eye-opening-scrutiny/
https://www.statista.com/topics/6267/coronavirus-covid-19-in-sweden/#dossierContents__outerWrapper
She seems to have forgotten that the vaccinologist leading the Oxford project is, erm, Professor Sarah Gilbert.