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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andrew said:

    Antibody study showing 21% of NY City testing positive, which is about two million people. For the state as a whole it's 14%, or 2.7 million.

    They've already had 20k deaths .....

    Given the revelation that CV was in California sometime in January, I wonder when it got to NY?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Border restrictions would likely be the final measure lifted and would stay in place even if other rules were eased, according to Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported on Thursday (April 23).

    Guernsey's Chief Minister observed on Monday that travel restrictions would probably be the last thing to be relaxed. If the method is to "minimise contact" why have a "come one, come all" policy with the rest of the planet?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    ukpaul said:


    Apparently they tested supermarket customers. Are they representative?

    Yeah, I'm not sure whether this is raw data, or scaled to fit the population as a whole. The way it was presented suggests it's probably the latter, but who knows.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited April 2020
    rcs1000 said:
    This was the Chinese one, not the one in the US, that they terminated early.

    Gilead spokesperson Amy Flood said the company believes “the post included inappropriate characterization of the study.” Because the study was stopped early because it had too few patients, she said, it cannot “enable statistically meaningful conclusions.” However, she said, “trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease.”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,676
    edited April 2020
    As a key worker today's test news is great.

    Asking on behalf of a hypochondriac, can you have multiple tests whenever you feel like you have the dreaded lurgy?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Got a weird 'you will be redirected' message and, when attempting to reload just now

    "Confirm Form Resubmission
    The page that you're looking for used information that you entered. Returning to that page might cause any action that you took to be repeated. Do you want to continue?"

    Anyone else getting that?

    I got that too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    An extra bank holiday is a good idea, but the trouble is that April is the wrong time. We already have two bank holidays in May – so we'd end up with three within six weeks or so!

    One in the autumn, for Bonfire Night or some such, would be better, as there aren't any bank hols between August and Christmas.
    We Scots have one in the autumn already: St Andrews.

    Bonfire Night is not PC, BTW.
    I didn't know that, actually.

    Re: Bonfire Night really, why not?
    Anti-Catholicism. Also - and a more important issue to many now - pollution and terrifying pets.
    In fairness - I realise I've been reading too many 19th century social histories. I retract that anti-RC element - so far as I know not significant today, unless anyone knows better. But as already pointged out by another PBer, it celebrates something a bit gruesome (burning alive).

    Does it? Guy Fawkes was hanged drawn and quartered as far as I was aware.
    Yes, but Guy Fawkes was not the original target of the bonfire. The ‘guys’ on the bonfire were models of the Pope, who was being burned in effigy to show the crowds’ contempt for him and to imply he was a heretic. Only in the later eighteenth century did the word ‘Guy’ become elided with ‘Guido Fawkes,’ so now it is his effigy that gets burned.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    So is it going to be a self done swab? Not sure how accurate the tests are going to be given that getting a decent swab isn't easy even for professionals.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    MaxPB said:

    So is it going to be a self done swab? Not sure how accurate the tests are going to be given that getting a decent swab isn't easy even for professionals.

    I seemed to remember this is why the "gold standard" test even performed by trained individuals is only 80% accurate. It is the collection issue, not the PCR test.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Cookie said:

    isam said:
    My guess is that they locked down at the same time as Western Europe, seeing what was heading their way if they didn't take action, but before the spread had reached the same level there. So what the UK could have done in response to Italy.
    The UK's big problem was that it really kicked off at the time thousands of British people were on skiing holidays in Italy and flying back through airports which seemed to be populated almost entirely by Coronavirus. It seemed at one point that pretty much everyone coming back from Italy was coming back with a case of it.
    I have no idea if Italy is a particularly Brit-friendly ski destination, or whether its airports are more used by Brits than other nationalities.
    i would guess more people came back from northern italy to germany at that time, probably a lot more. no doubt a much higher proportion travelled overland. figures on numbers of flights to different countries must available somewhere.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    Cookie said:

    isam said:
    My guess is that they locked down at the same time as Western Europe, seeing what was heading their way if they didn't take action, but before the spread had reached the same level there. So what the UK could have done in response to Italy.
    The UK's big problem was that it really kicked off at the time thousands of British people were on skiing holidays in Italy and flying back through airports which seemed to be populated almost entirely by Coronavirus. It seemed at one point that pretty much everyone coming back from Italy was coming back with a case of it.
    I have no idea if Italy is a particularly Brit-friendly ski destination, or whether its airports are more used by Brits than other nationalities.
    Useless fact: I haven't been skiing since 1995 on a school trip. Went on two earlier ones in 1992 and 1993. I don't think I've even seen anyone skiing since then in real life, apart from on TV, etc. Most British people have never been skiing if I remember the figures correctly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
    Given all the uproar over a bus touring the entire country was deemed "not national" - how has that been allowed to happen after that without Police involvement.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
    So long as it doesn't specify candidates in the constituency it gets lobbed as national spending.

    That's how the Tories get around it legitimately in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...

    I’m not sure Patrick had that much to do with Ireland
    Not by choice anyway?

    I've always found the 'surprise' of Saints not being from a certain place a bit weird, and nationalistically focused. I'd naturally assume patron saints would be chosen whereever they came from on the basis of some characteristic of theirs which those selecting them as patron wanted to imply was characteristic of their country.
    St Dunstan would be a better choice of patron saint for England
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    Been listening to the briefing, I think they may even hit this 100k test target with some ease.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    MattW said:

    Been listening to the briefing, I think they may even hit this 100k test target with some ease.

    What makes you think that?
  • dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
    So long as it doesn't specify candidates in the constituency it gets lobbed as national spending.

    That's how the Tories get around it legitimately in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
    That HAS to be a deeply flawed position from the Electoral Commission.

    I don't blame parties for following the guidance on this. But it is on its face utterly ludicrous to say that a mailing to a postal address in Totnes (or wherever) encouraging someone to vote for a particular party is anything other than encouragement for them to do so IN TOTNES because, save a few cases of multiple homes etc, where else is the resident going to do so?

    The guidance cannot possibly be consistent with the policy intention of the legislation in terms of dividing national and local spend. And Electoral Commission guidance does have to consider the policy intention in interpreting requirements in the event of ambiguity... which they simply haven't done.

    It seems to me that the Electoral Commission have painted themselves into a corner on this and really ought to revisit the guidance. I'm sure it's just cock-up as to how they got there, but it's objectively indefensible.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:
    My guess is that they locked down at the same time as Western Europe, seeing what was heading their way if they didn't take action, but before the spread had reached the same level there. So what the UK could have done in response to Italy.
    The UK's big problem was that it really kicked off at the time thousands of British people were on skiing holidays in Italy and flying back through airports which seemed to be populated almost entirely by Coronavirus. It seemed at one point that pretty much everyone coming back from Italy was coming back with a case of it.
    I have no idea if Italy is a particularly Brit-friendly ski destination, or whether its airports are more used by Brits than other nationalities.
    Useless fact: I haven't been skiing since 1995 on a school trip. Went on two earlier ones in 1992 and 1993. I don't think I've even seen anyone skiing since then in real life, apart from on TV, etc. Most British people have never been skiing if I remember the figures correctly.
    6.3 million UK skiers it says here

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/660546/europe-number-of-people-skiing-by-country/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    HYUFD said:
    That sounds like an encouragingly gentle taper.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    HYUFD said:
    or is it the "biggest problem" for the "keep everything closed" crowd?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Average life expectancy in Eastern Europe is under 80, in Western Europe it is over 80
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:
    If we never had been stopped from going to any of the things mentioned, I wouldn’t have gone anyway while this virus is about. I didn’t got to the pub or a restaurant for 2-3 weeks pre lockdown. But I’d like to be able to have a couple of friends round on a nice evening, and may well do soon.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
    To have 1000s of your citizens return from the epicentre of a once in a 100 year pandemic which will kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide and to have no outbreak and no deaths is as likely as winning the lottery every week for a year, yet it has happened.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Average life expectancy in Eastern Europe is under 80, in Western Europe it is over 80
    I don’t think that can be it. The 70 year old, frail Eastern Europeans would be getting it at the rate of our 75 year olds wouldn’t they?
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
    That randomness is something that humanity has tried, and at times (especially in the developed countries) been pretty much able, to eradicate from our lives. Maybe that’s why it has frustrated some so much. As we have had the relative luck of being born in the latter half of the twentieth century, we have been living lives of relative certainty compared to our forebears, for whom the randomness of nature was something to have to cope with.

    The poorest are more attuned to having the stuffing kicked out of them by happenstance. For those who believe that they have achieved a comfortable life because of their own skill and not because of being in the right place and time as well, maybe they are less attuned to that. Maybe the more comfortable that we are, the randomness of disease, loss of health, loss of wealth and more is a more bitter pill to swallow.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2020
    Flanner said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    St George's Day? We can't even have a patron saint who has anything to do with this country unlike the other home nations...

    I’m not sure Patrick had that much to do with Ireland
    And what did Andrew have to do with Scotland?

    Nothing ever quite matches the pig-ignorance of the world outside England professional England-bashers always manage to display.

    Precisely. Patron saints are chosen for a reason which is not necessarily geographical. In the case of George it was because he espoused the martial value of whichever dodgy Plantagenet selected him

    St Dunstan, for example, is the patron saint of investment bankers and blacksmiths. Two worthy trades...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ukpaul said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
    That randomness is something that humanity has tried, and at times (especially in the developed countries) been pretty much able, to eradicate from our lives. Maybe that’s why it has frustrated some so much. As we have had the relative luck of being born in the latter half of the twentieth century, we have been living lives of relative certainty compared to our forebears, for whom the randomness of nature was something to have to cope with.

    The poorest are more attuned to having the stuffing kicked out of them by happenstance. For those who believe that they have achieved a comfortable life because of their own skill and not because of being in the right place and time as well, maybe they are less attuned to that. Maybe the more comfortable that we are, the randomness of disease, loss of health, loss of wealth and more is a more bitter pill to swallow.
    That's very philosophical but while shit tends to happen or not happen almost randomly on the individual level, it is much less likely that an entire population is going to get lucky like this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
    To have 1000s of your citizens return from the epicentre of a once in a 100 year pandemic which will kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide and to have no outbreak and no deaths is as likely as winning the lottery every week for a year, yet it has happened.
    My understanding is that everyone arriving in Vietnam in the last three months - from anywhere - has spent fourteen days in strict quarantine in old military camps.

    That may have had a bearing on it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    "There has also been aggressive contact tracing.

    One 72-year-old Hanoi resident described how he and a team in his community had been tasked with zeroing in on any suspected cases, falling back on grassroots Communist party networks in charge of overseeing neighbourhoods.

    'We go to each and every alley, knocking on each and every door,' Nguyen Trinh Thang told AFP.

    'We follow the guidance from our government that 'fighting the pandemic is like fighting our enemy.'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248775/Vietnam-eases-coronavirus-restrictions-reporting-zero-deaths.html

    Sadly, totalitarianism seems to be the cure.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    Endillion said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Why are there so few cases in Vietnam? We just have to accept that this Virus is very odd.
    I understand that Vietnam is currently flavour of the month on Twitter, because they locked down early and hard (like New Zealand).

    See for example this thread:
    https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247126772119998464

    If I understand correctly, doing what they did would violate just about every concept of data privacy and confidentiality the UK has.
    Vietnam is next to China and is very densley populated in areas and has a population of 95 million. Their Health Service while improved would not compare to the Western standard. It makes no sense how they can have zero deaths. Just look at Spain today, 4500 new cases and 450 deaths 43 days into a severe lockdown, Vietnam which is next to China just 268 cases in total and no deaths.
    "Vietnam is next to China" is perhaps one of the least insightful thoughts I've ever seen expressed. The distance from Wuhan to the Vietnam border is almost a thousand miles, and a lot of the land in between is pretty empty. I'm not even sure why you've mentioned Spain, but whatever the thought process was, it's not remotely comparable.
    Ok so Ecuador is being destroyed by the Virus, how far is that from Wuhan?

    What is happening in North China now with the people returning from Russia?

    But saying Vietnam is next to China is not insightful?
    Good grief. Vietnam did lock down; Ecuador didn't. Conclusion: strength of precautionary measures taken are a better indicator of outcome than political geography.

    I understand that this doesn't fit in with your preconceived prejudices.
    So all the workers who returned to Vietnam from Wuhan in January and February, do you not think it is astonishing that not a single one of them died, especially when you consider what the real death toll in Wuhan is?

    How is wondering how Vietnam has managed no deaths showing that I have preconceived prejudices
    - I have limited confidence that the Vietnamese data is entirely accurate
    - However, I have no reason to believe that it's materially wrong. Ie, they may be hiding/have missed a few or even a few hundred deaths, but I have no reason to believe they have thousands or tens of thousands. They might, of course
    - It's very clear from the general tone of your posts that you disagree quite strongly with the need for, and effectiveness of, a lockdown in the UK
    - It seems to me that you are therefore trying to explain away anything and everything that might indicate that a lockdown is a good idea
    You are right that I am not 100% sure that a lockdown is the panacea for fighting the virus. It may well be the only way, but that data from Spain and Italy is not supporting that, I agree that case numbers have come down but 4,500 new cases in Spain 43 days into a severe lockdown does not seem to me to provide 100% evidence that a lockdown is as effective as people believe.

    My point about Vietnam is to demonstrate how odd this virus is. I am sure that during November and December infected people returned from Wuhan to Vietnam This was before anyone knew about Covid-19 There was no lockdown and these people would have mingled with the population spreading the virus. If you look at how close people live together in Vietnam how did it not spread? It makes absolutely no sense when you consider how quickly it spread through major cities in Western Europe.
    So, on the presumption that there's nothing biologically or environmentally different about Vietnam or Vietnamese people that explains this, the most likely explanation is surely that they got lucky, and then took steps to ensure they didn't need to get lucky again?

    What else is there? It's just a virus; it can't decide not to attack a particular country or group of people.
    To have 1000s of your citizens return from the epicentre of a once in a 100 year pandemic which will kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide and to have no outbreak and no deaths is as likely as winning the lottery every week for a year, yet it has happened.
    My understanding is that everyone arriving in Vietnam in the last three months - from anywhere - has spent fourteen days in strict quarantine in old military camps.

    That may have had a bearing on it.
    They would have had returnees in November and December and early January who would have come in and mixed with the population. Just remember what Wuhan was like. Thousands of Vietnamese were there during the height of the outbreak and returned home with no problems , just 268 cases in a country of 95 million and no deaths.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    edited April 2020

    MattW said:

    Been listening to the briefing, I think they may even hit this 100k test target with some ease.

    What makes you think that?
    I think the bottlenecks look fixable, there are a number of recruitment routes, and there is some ambiguity in the target.

    The difficult item was creating labs, and they have had time to know what will be achieved. The other difficult one has been recruiting people, and there will now be a tidal wave. Various large scale web projects have worked fairly well, such as the business grants etc.

    Is it "collect 100k swabs" or "return 100k results"? Both are arguable
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:
    My guess is that they locked down at the same time as Western Europe, seeing what was heading their way if they didn't take action, but before the spread had reached the same level there. So what the UK could have done in response to Italy.
    The UK's big problem was that it really kicked off at the time thousands of British people were on skiing holidays in Italy and flying back through airports which seemed to be populated almost entirely by Coronavirus. It seemed at one point that pretty much everyone coming back from Italy was coming back with a case of it.
    I have no idea if Italy is a particularly Brit-friendly ski destination, or whether its airports are more used by Brits than other nationalities.
    Useless fact: I haven't been skiing since 1995 on a school trip. Went on two earlier ones in 1992 and 1993. I don't think I've even seen anyone skiing since then in real life, apart from on TV, etc. Most British people have never been skiing if I remember the figures correctly.
    6.3 million UK skiers it says here

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/660546/europe-number-of-people-skiing-by-country/
    Public school teachers surely fooled all of the people all of the time in convincing parents there is any educational value whatsoever in a skiing trip. Does it teach languages? No. Culture, no. Teamwork, no. It's just a free holiday for Mr Jones and Mrs Smith and now their legacy is a lockdown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    isam said:
    The fake news is already spreading. Mail already running a piece on it. And that is before you even consider if this map is genuine, given all the spelling mistakes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    isam said:
    The fake news is already spreading. Mail already running a piece on it. And that is before you even consider if this map is genuine, given all the spelling mistakes.
    Didn't I ask if the map had been corrected for population earlier? Perhaps I'm better qualified to comment on this than Kuenssberg? :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Average life expectancy in Eastern Europe is under 80, in Western Europe it is over 80
    I don’t think that can be it. The 70 year old, frail Eastern Europeans would be getting it at the rate of our 75 year olds wouldn’t they?
    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    OT barbecues should be banned. Now the air is so much clearer, barbecue smoke offends the nostrils.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    For God's sake... why shouldn't it be celebrated?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    I have read it twice and have no idea what point she is trying to make
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    I have read it twice and have no idea what point she is trying to make
    That white men should be nowhere near trying to cure this virus, essentially.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    rcs1000 said:
    This was the Chinese one, not the one in the US, that they terminated early.

    Gilead spokesperson Amy Flood said the company believes “the post included inappropriate characterization of the study.” Because the study was stopped early because it had too few patients, she said, it cannot “enable statistically meaningful conclusions.” However, she said, “trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease.”
    Quite a few Chinese drug trials had to stop early because they could not recruit patients. One more bit of circumstantial evidence that brutal totalitarianism is pretty effective for disease control.

    Its almost as if suppressing dissent requires much the same sort of surveillance and contact tracing as suppressing a virus.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    For God's sake... why shouldn't it be celebrated?
    Because Britain Is Bad. Brexit etc.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    RobD said:

    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
    Sir Kenneth has some work to do, which - tbf - he should achieve if they stop publishing fairy stories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Good old Chris Witty... what has he got that Vallance hasn't?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
    Bloody impressive effort by the media.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    For God's sake... why shouldn't it be celebrated?
    Nearly all the qs she asked have already been answered the way she would want them answered I think.

    Just another self-hater, self-hating.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    Good old Chris Witty... what has he got that Vallance hasn't?

    He got CV? Which the media blamed him for getting.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
    So long as it doesn't specify candidates in the constituency it gets lobbed as national spending.

    That's how the Tories get around it legitimately in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
    That HAS to be a deeply flawed position from the Electoral Commission.

    I don't blame parties for following the guidance on this. But it is on its face utterly ludicrous to say that a mailing to a postal address in Totnes (or wherever) encouraging someone to vote for a particular party is anything other than encouragement for them to do so IN TOTNES because, save a few cases of multiple homes etc, where else is the resident going to do so?

    The guidance cannot possibly be consistent with the policy intention of the legislation in terms of dividing national and local spend. And Electoral Commission guidance does have to consider the policy intention in interpreting requirements in the event of ambiguity... which they simply haven't done.

    It seems to me that the Electoral Commission have painted themselves into a corner on this and really ought to revisit the guidance. I'm sure it's just cock-up as to how they got there, but it's objectively indefensible.
    I don't think the electoral commission can cope with new campaigning strategies, particularly the digital side, they seem to be playing catch up with things that happened a decade ago.

    FWIW - I'll say it again, abolish the constituency spending limits, and just set a national spending total then leave it up to the parties where they want to spend the money, so if that means the big two just focus on 150 or so constituencies, so be it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
    Bloody impressive effort by the media.
    They probably make lawyers look good at this point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    isam said:
    The fake news is already spreading. Mail already running a piece on it. And that is before you even consider if this map is genuine, given all the spelling mistakes.
    There aren’t ten thousand residents in the whole of Newent (the isolated purple dot in the northwest of the county) and it must cover five square kilometres.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
    Bloody impressive effort by the media.
    They probably make lawyers look good at this point.
    If they carry in the way they have, even estate agents will be more popular.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370
    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    For God's sake... why shouldn't it be celebrated?
    Nearly all the qs she asked have already been answered the way she would want them answered I think.

    Just another self-hater, self-hating.
    "Negative Nationalism" - read “Notes on Nationalism" by George Orwell. A great piece of writing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    I appreciate that people want to make international comparisons, but data between countries are accounted very differently. This thread from an Irish perspective gives some examples:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1252943569880522753?s=09

    I think that the excess deaths from 5 year average is probably the most accurate figure, even if many are not known covid. That is how excess flu mortality is calculated.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    “Researchers have also warned that this [production shortages] will lead to rich countries hoarding supplies. We were too late when it came to stockpiling PPE, but we won’t be caught out again. The vaccine, developed by our finest brains, is ours. And it will be Britons who are prioritised for protection.”

    The implication of what she is saying is she’d rather (a) somewhere else developed it (b) it belonged to someone else; and (c) Britons would NOT be prioritised for protection.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    “Researchers have also warned that this [production shortages] will lead to rich countries hoarding supplies. We were too late when it came to stockpiling PPE, but we won’t be caught out again. The vaccine, developed by our finest brains, is ours. And it will be Britons who are prioritised for protection.”

    The implication of what she is saying is she’d rather (a) somewhere else developed it (b) it belonged to someone else; and (c) Britons would NOT be prioritised for protection.
    If the British taxpayer pays for it don't they deserve to get it first?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Average life expectancy in Eastern Europe is under 80, in Western Europe it is over 80
    I don’t think that can be it. The 70 year old, frail Eastern Europeans would be getting it at the rate of our 75 year olds wouldn’t they?
    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s
    Death rate starts really taking off at 70. Life expectancy in say Latvia is 76 against our 81 and their median age is higher than ours, 44 vs 40. Age is therefore unlikely to be a complete explanation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I bet sky news were ready to pat themselves on the back with polling showing what a great job they were doing...then they got the results.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    "The media are just asking questions the government don't want to answer!"

    That is the single HOTTEST take from the PB Brains Trust
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,250

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    For God's sake... why shouldn't it be celebrated?
    Nearly all the qs she asked have already been answered the way she would want them answered I think.

    Just another self-hater, self-hating.
    "Negative Nationalism" - read “Notes on Nationalism" by George Orwell. A great piece of writing.
    Will do - I have the time at present :smile: .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,676
    edited April 2020

    I bet sky news were ready to pat themselves on the back with polling showing what a great job they were doing...then they got the results.

    A few years ago a pollster did say in this type of polling it would be great if they split it out between

    1) Print journalists

    2) Broadcast journalists.

    Glad they have now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    isam said:

    Why have Eastern European countries had so few covid deaths?

    Vitamin D from doctors?
    TB jabs?
    Dare I say... not many BAME? That would apply to Russia though, and they’ve done badly

    Possible reasons: low population density, low percentage of BAME, less movement of people both within the countries and from other countries.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    I have just purchased a gift card for my local (closed obviously) pub. Budweiser are doing a Save Pub Life scheme, where they will double your gift card donation. When the pubs reopen you get to spend your voucher, in the meantime the pub gets double your donation in cash up front to try and help them weather the storm.

    https://savepublife.com/

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,357
    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "The media are just asking questions the government don't want to answer!"

    That is the single HOTTEST take from the PB Brains Trust
    The problem is they have been playing GOTCHA and the public realise that and have marked them down heavily for it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Lockdown increasingly being eroded:

    Coronavirus: B&Q reopens stores closed amid lockdown
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52393074

    It was pretty busy cycling back from school this afternoon as well, and I wasn’t on the main roads.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Foxy said:

    I appreciate that people want to make international comparisons, but data between countries are accounted very differently. This thread from an Irish perspective gives some examples:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1252943569880522753?s=09

    I think that the excess deaths from 5 year average is probably the most accurate figure, even if many are not known covid. That is how excess flu mortality is calculated.

    Also suggests Austria, currently relaxing lockdown, has (by most metrics) been underreporting COVID deaths.

    https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1252819607322124296?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,370

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Big_G commented on it earlier. He was saying how he enjoyed the results being read out by journalists. :D
    Bloody impressive effort by the media.
    They probably make lawyers look good at this point.
    If they carry in the way they have, even estate agents will be more popular.
    They will be less popular than IT recruiters.

    Speaking of which, this explains why everyone hates them -

    https://www.indy100.com/article/recruitment-video-parody-watch-video-funny-reaction-haigh-associates-8588461
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    The insinuation is that a sizable fraction of the population is in Boris' family?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    “Researchers have also warned that this [production shortages] will lead to rich countries hoarding supplies. We were too late when it came to stockpiling PPE, but we won’t be caught out again. The vaccine, developed by our finest brains, is ours. And it will be Britons who are prioritised for protection.”

    The implication of what she is saying is she’d rather (a) somewhere else developed it (b) it belonged to someone else; and (c) Britons would NOT be prioritised for protection.
    If the British taxpayer pays for it don't they deserve to get it first?
    Developing a vaccine is one thing. Getting it mass-produced is quite another, and is more likely in the United States, Europe or (ironically) China.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    I think by all the evidence that the people who trust Boris least are his family!
  • RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    The insinuation is that a sizable fraction of the population is in Boris' family?
    Even millions
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    I think by all the evidence that the people who trust Boris least are his family!
    Naughty :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    The insinuation is that a sizable fraction of the population is in Boris' family?
    Even millions
    New avatar? Were you reenacting the scene from titanic? :D
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    dr_spyn said:

    Fans of fake local newspapers during election campaigns might be disappointed if this is followed up.

    https://twitter.com/pressgazette/status/1253344169638141953

    What about wrappers round local newspapers? The LibDems used them massively in Totnes. How the hell they could say the Dartmouth Chronicle was national spend and keep a straight face I'll never know....
    So long as it doesn't specify candidates in the constituency it gets lobbed as national spending.

    That's how the Tories get around it legitimately in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
    That HAS to be a deeply flawed position from the Electoral Commission.

    I don't blame parties for following the guidance on this. But it is on its face utterly ludicrous to say that a mailing to a postal address in Totnes (or wherever) encouraging someone to vote for a particular party is anything other than encouragement for them to do so IN TOTNES because, save a few cases of multiple homes etc, where else is the resident going to do so?

    The guidance cannot possibly be consistent with the policy intention of the legislation in terms of dividing national and local spend. And Electoral Commission guidance does have to consider the policy intention in interpreting requirements in the event of ambiguity... which they simply haven't done.

    It seems to me that the Electoral Commission have painted themselves into a corner on this and really ought to revisit the guidance. I'm sure it's just cock-up as to how they got there, but it's objectively indefensible.
    I don't think the electoral commission can cope with new campaigning strategies, particularly the digital side, they seem to be playing catch up with things that happened a decade ago.

    FWIW - I'll say it again, abolish the constituency spending limits, and just set a national spending total then leave it up to the parties where they want to spend the money, so if that means the big two just focus on 150 or so constituencies, so be it.
    Fake news, under-the-radar, shitposting. While our main parties, and especially the winning side, use these techniques, don't hold your breath waiting for them to be banned.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    I Teach At Oxford, But I Don’t Want It To Win The Coronavirus Vaccine Race

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372

    We will stick you right at the back of the queue, take ticket #7,779,732,202...that ok with you love?

    I think the word needed is: 'Unspoofable'. WTF!
    The logical fail is that she worries that if Oxford develops it Brits will presumably be prioritised.

    Once would assume that if Ruritania develops it then Ruritanians would be prioritised.

    Implicitly she wants more Brits to die
    Is she saying that? I read it as more that the Oxford-educated politicians would present it as a national triumph whereas the Oxford scientists readily aknowledge they are part of an international research effort.
    “Researchers have also warned that this [production shortages] will lead to rich countries hoarding supplies. We were too late when it came to stockpiling PPE, but we won’t be caught out again. The vaccine, developed by our finest brains, is ours. And it will be Britons who are prioritised for protection.”

    The implication of what she is saying is she’d rather (a) somewhere else developed it (b) it belonged to someone else; and (c) Britons would NOT be prioritised for protection.
    If the British taxpayer pays for it don't they deserve to get it first?
    Before we get all Jingoistic, lets remember that there's no guarantee that any of the many teams developing vaccines will be successful. Also that there are some that are a bit ahead of the Oxford team. Even if we are successful here before other countries do we have the ability to mass produce it here?
    It's a world problem and we need to cheer on all the teams no matter from which country - it would be good for the UK to get there first but that is only a minor point.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown increasingly being eroded:

    Coronavirus: B&Q reopens stores closed amid lockdown
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52393074

    It was pretty busy cycling back from school this afternoon as well, and I wasn’t on the main roads.

    A mockdown*

    * Someone else coined that but it’s too good (and appropriate) not to use.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    HYUFD said:


    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s

    Well, quite, but each one is a life and they leave a family to mourn so maybe it's not about being so cold with the statistics and perhaps realising that each life does matter.

    I'm to be convinced we've quite got the distinction between dying of the virus and dying with the virus.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    who were the moronic numpties that trusted Boris, assume his family.
    The insinuation is that a sizable fraction of the population is in Boris' family?
    Even millions
    New avatar? Were you reenacting the scene from titanic? :D
    Yes

    On the Bras d'Or Lake in Nova Scotia and it was dodgy as we were really sailing at a pace
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Becoming increasingly clear the limiting factor on hitting 100k daily tests is demand for the tests rather than supply - given the government are doubling down on the target we can expect to see some pretty odd trends in the daily tests with demand piled up on certain days to try and get them over the line, leading to some much lower days as well
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    ydoethur said:

    Lockdown increasingly being eroded:

    Coronavirus: B&Q reopens stores closed amid lockdown
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52393074

    It was pretty busy cycling back from school this afternoon as well, and I wasn’t on the main roads.

    To be fair, it isn't being eroded - it is just people following the letter of the lockdown laws. B&Q was always allowed to stay open, as a hardware store, with some modifications.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s

    Well, quite, but each one is a life and they leave a family to mourn so maybe it's not about being so cold with the statistics and perhaps realising that each life does matter.

    I'm to be convinced we've quite got the distinction between dying of the virus and dying with the virus.
    I think there are more variations to the dying of/ with issue, e.g. primary cause, significant issue (how significant?) Dying needs all the data needed to enable analysis and I'm not sure that's being collected
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    OT barbecues should be banned. Now the air is so much clearer, barbecue smoke offends the nostrils.

    Some would say the same about the chippy that you frequent....

    How about we ban neither, and people tolerate difference.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited April 2020
    Anyone else getting a bit tired of this sort of thing? I think we can safely say places of worship will not be closed forever.

    "Muslim Council of Britain warns UK mosques could close forever"

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-muslim-council-of-britain-warns-uk-mosques-could-close-forever-11977758
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s

    Well, quite, but each one is a life and they leave a family to mourn so maybe it's not about being so cold with the statistics and perhaps realising that each life does matter.

    I'm to be convinced we've quite got the distinction between dying of the virus and dying with the virus.
    There does appear to be increasing cases of COVID-19 causing sudden death (perhaps from myocarditis and dysrhythmia) with few respiratory symptoms, particularly in the very elderly.

    The distinction between dying of covid-19 and dying with COVID-19 is pretty meaningless. Just look at the patterns of excess deaths.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else getting a bit tired of this sort of thing? I think we can safely say places of worship will not be closed forever.

    "Muslim Council of Britain warns UK mosques could close forever"

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-muslim-council-of-britain-warns-uk-mosques-could-close-forever-11977758

    Opportunity knocks mind.
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    Silver lining alert.

    Tax dodging fuckery will be punished. In the court of public opinion, and then by legislation. I get a *very* strong sense that when governments around the world survey the fiscal carnage, and with the wind of public opinion in their sales, they will decide we are done with Channel Isles, BVI, Belize and the shower of sharp suited, avaricious, and venal leeches that go with them. Sell Panama, Gibralter and Isle of Man property. There is reckoning coming.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    The death rate globally is highest in over 80s and countries with the highest percentage of over 80s

    Well, quite, but each one is a life and they leave a family to mourn so maybe it's not about being so cold with the statistics and perhaps realising that each life does matter.

    I'm to be convinced we've quite got the distinction between dying of the virus and dying with the virus.
    There does appear to be increasing cases of COVID-19 causing sudden death (perhaps from myocarditis and dysrhythmia) with few respiratory symptoms, particularly in the very elderly.

    The distinction between dying of covid-19 and dying with COVID-19 is pretty meaningless. Just look at the patterns of excess deaths.
    The distinction is obviously meaningless if taken on a week to week basis. It may be a rather cold hearted discussion, but you have to arbitrarily pick a slightly longer time period to make something of it. On a 100 year time horizon, everyone with the virus was going to die anyway. On a 1 week time horizon, barely any at all. Then people can argue about what time window inbetween those 2 extremes to look at, and we'll have to wait to see the data over the longer term.

    All deaths are tragedies for the families concerned, but when it comes to people I don't know, the death of a teenager is far more tragic than someone already past average life span.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Just looking at the Italian numbers, it's fascinating the major differences between the places.

    Large parts of the South are recording just one, or a couple, of CV-19 cases a day. Lazio, which contains Rome, has fallen to 79 a day, and looks on track to be in single digits in a week or two. And Veneto, which had been an early hotspot, appears to have things broadly under control.

    But Lombardy is still a total disaster. Lombardy is about one sixth the population of Italy, but is still recording close to half of the cases. And sure, numbers have fallen by 60% from the peak. But they simply aren't falling as fast there than in other parts of the country.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    blairf said:

    Silver lining alert.

    Tax dodging fuckery will be punished. In the court of public opinion, and then by legislation. I get a *very* strong sense that when governments around the world survey the fiscal carnage, and with the wind of public opinion in their sales, they will decide we are done with Channel Isles, BVI, Belize and the shower of sharp suited, avaricious, and venal leeches that go with them. Sell Panama, Gibralter and Isle of Man property. There is reckoning coming.

    Good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:
    If we never had been stopped from going to any of the things mentioned, I wouldn’t have gone anyway while this virus is about. I didn’t got to the pub or a restaurant for 2-3 weeks pre lockdown. But I’d like to be able to have a couple of friends round on a nice evening, and may well do soon.
    Distance dining will be the thing. Dine outdoors during the summer, two couples, each end of a long table. Visitors bring their own cutlery, plates, glasses and take them home again. Quite possible to make sure there is no material risk of contagion. Especially if those couples have been locked away for weeks on end.

    People will take their own safety in their own hands.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    rcs1000 said:

    Just looking at the Italian numbers, it's fascinating the major differences between the places.

    Large parts of the South are recording just one, or a couple, of CV-19 cases a day. Lazio, which contains Rome, has fallen to 79 a day, and looks on track to be in single digits in a week or two. And Veneto, which had been an early hotspot, appears to have things broadly under control.

    But Lombardy is still a total disaster. Lombardy is about one sixth the population of Italy, but is still recording close to half of the cases. And sure, numbers have fallen by 60% from the peak. But they simply aren't falling as fast there than in other parts of the country.

    And in Lombardy the lockdown is very severe
This discussion has been closed.