politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A message from Mike Smithson
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Sam the Seaborne expert iircMalmesbury said:
You can buy rust buckets for pennies. Providing you are OK with killing some of the crew now and then.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ed Thorpe, who invented and popularised card-counting to win at Blackjack, once part-owned an oil tanker bought when storage was cheap but hedged by its scrap value, or something like that.kyf_100 said:
How much does an oil tanker cost? In for a penny, in for a pound.Malmesbury said:
I mentioned down thread, the occasion that some traders at one oil company screwed over some bankers who thought they could raid the oil market. They got cheap oil, all right. Then found out that the only available storage was owned by the company the traders they had dealt with, worked for.....Sandpit said:
The replies under that thread, from people who clearly know nothing about oil, are terribly amusing.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't know if this has already been posted, but this short thread is a very good explanation of what is happening in the oil market.
https://twitter.com/gilbeaq/status/1252293724215762950
What you have to understand is that the oil market is very different from any other.
No, it doesn’t arrive in single barrels worth more than the contents. Yes, storage needs planning permission and needs to be in regulated vessels. No, the price doesn’t include delivery, you have to pick it up yourself. No, you can’t ‘buy’ it at a negative price then just pour it away.
And you have the financial structure that Rob Lowe's character in the West Wing setup - ship is owned by a company which has no assets apart from the ship. The company is then controlled via a stack of shell companies via offshore.
So when the ship sinks and fucks up half the coastline of a country, the 1st company declares bankruptcy and you walk away untouched.0 -
Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.0
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1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm.eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21
We seem to know very little about Covid.0 -
I think it looks like he has brought the police service into disrepute - which is a specific, sackable offence in the police regulations.Alistair said:
How many falsifying evidences does it take before we can cancel him?eadric said:
Sure. I just wouldn’t end his career and his family’s livelihood on the basis of one videoCasino_Royale said:
They are scrotey chavs. So probably very.eadric said:ydoethur said:
He should be kicked off the force for being terminally fucking stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:I hope this is the first step in him and his colleague being sacked and then being charged.
'Make something up' threat Lancashire Police officer suspended
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52358114
What sort of imbecile promises to lie, claiming that he will be believed, while being filmed?
Before we crucify the officer, I’d like to see the full context of the video. Just how provocative were those kids being?
I am well aware the police can be arseholes. I’ve seen it myself. But right now I’d err on the side of caution before condemning.
I just wish they’d stop these absurd virtue signaling videos of dancing and clapping.
But that's besides the point. Provocations like that are bread and butter if you're a police officer.
You are trained (or should be) how to handle it and it should never be like that.
That guy totally lost his cool and some of the arrogant stuff he said was deeply disturbing.
The clamor of social media crucifixions needs to be confronted. And now is the time. I would likewise spare the NHS activists caught lying for Labour
Could he be liable for a charge of misconduct in a public office?0 -
Likely to be volatile, because the oil futures market amplifies price fluctuations. But yes, the big picture is that the oil price has collapsed and ain't gonna recover much anytime soon.MarqueeMark said:Is there any reason to believe that the Cushing situation won't also play out like this in late May? Late June? Because it is hard to see how the tanks in Cushing are going to be drained in coming weeks.
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Kaboom!!!eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=210 -
A reminder that "no lock down Sweden" banned all international travel entry from outside the EEA on the 19th of March.
So no plane loads of JFK plague carriers arriving there for the last month.3 -
Yup - in a later episode he gets upset when a whistleblower uses a legal dodge to protect himself by implicating Sam and others. Given that Sam apparently is a genius at the scam deals above, I thought the whistleblower was just being sensible, given who he was dealing with.PeterMannion said:
Sam the Seaborne expert iircMalmesbury said:
You can buy rust buckets for pennies. Providing you are OK with killing some of the crew now and then.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Ed Thorpe, who invented and popularised card-counting to win at Blackjack, once part-owned an oil tanker bought when storage was cheap but hedged by its scrap value, or something like that.kyf_100 said:
How much does an oil tanker cost? In for a penny, in for a pound.Malmesbury said:
I mentioned down thread, the occasion that some traders at one oil company screwed over some bankers who thought they could raid the oil market. They got cheap oil, all right. Then found out that the only available storage was owned by the company the traders they had dealt with, worked for.....Sandpit said:
The replies under that thread, from people who clearly know nothing about oil, are terribly amusing.Richard_Nabavi said:I don't know if this has already been posted, but this short thread is a very good explanation of what is happening in the oil market.
https://twitter.com/gilbeaq/status/1252293724215762950
What you have to understand is that the oil market is very different from any other.
No, it doesn’t arrive in single barrels worth more than the contents. Yes, storage needs planning permission and needs to be in regulated vessels. No, the price doesn’t include delivery, you have to pick it up yourself. No, you can’t ‘buy’ it at a negative price then just pour it away.
And you have the financial structure that Rob Lowe's character in the West Wing setup - ship is owned by a company which has no assets apart from the ship. The company is then controlled via a stack of shell companies via offshore.
So when the ship sinks and fucks up half the coastline of a country, the 1st company declares bankruptcy and you walk away untouched.0 -
So how does that read across to property buying. I put an offer in on a house in Manchester in November at the asking price. I'm buying from the builder and they have been very slow so we haven't exchanged yet. Should I be holding the price, or looking for a discount as cash is probably worth more to them now and prices will be falling soon if not already?Casino_Royale said:On spending for as long as I'm getting a full salary my plan is to spend as normally as possible - I'm conscious others depend on it.
This does not extend to South Western Railway.0 -
Cushing syndrome is not pleasantIanB2 said:
There’s a massive one under the Netherlands, as well.rottenborough said:I had never heard of Cushing, until a comment down thread.
"Cushing, Oklahoma, 70 miles northeast of Oklahoma City, is a sleepy town with a population just under 8,000. It’s also the intense focus of every major player in the American oil market right now.
North American crude oil is pouring into Cushing, where dozens of steel storage tanks fan out from the outskirts of town, tank farms that march on for miles and connect to every major oil patch in North America through an maze of pipelines. Cushing’s nickname is “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”
It’s one of the largest crude oil storage hubs on Earth, and in the U.S. arguably the most important. Delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude is taken here, priced for Nymex contracts and stored before it’s shipped to refineries."
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/05/cushing-oklahoma-small-town-is-holding-illions-in-black-gold.html
Truly PB is educational!!!0 -
Don't do that on a betting site but if you must, at least trim the url.bigjohnowls said:
https://amp.theguardian.com/music/2019/nov/23/glyndebourne-opera-director-sacked-for-inappropriate-text
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Sweden also has a degree of freedom we don't. If you're 25 and, knowing your chances of dying of this (if you get it) are, at the absolute worst, about 0.25% (and probably a good deal less), and you fancy going out for a pint with your mates, you can.williamglenn said:
Yes, it's also not necessarily the case that the Swedish approach is better for the economy.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I don't understand this false dichotomy between systems. Sweden is 75% less travel, the UK 85% and Italy and Spain deployed the Caribineiri. It's all a scale.eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21
I have a decent amount of assets, enough to last me a decade or so before I really start to sweat it.
I'd give them all up in a heartbeat to relive a single summer of my youth.
Life is precious, but perhaps not in the way the coronavirus pearl clutchers would have us believe.0 -
No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.0
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We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.eadric said:
Yes, it does.DougSeal said:
Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21
If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....2 -
Neither is having a massive one under your Netherlands....malcolmg said:
Cushing syndrome is not pleasantIanB2 said:
There’s a massive one under the Netherlands, as well.rottenborough said:I had never heard of Cushing, until a comment down thread.
"Cushing, Oklahoma, 70 miles northeast of Oklahoma City, is a sleepy town with a population just under 8,000. It’s also the intense focus of every major player in the American oil market right now.
North American crude oil is pouring into Cushing, where dozens of steel storage tanks fan out from the outskirts of town, tank farms that march on for miles and connect to every major oil patch in North America through an maze of pipelines. Cushing’s nickname is “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.”
It’s one of the largest crude oil storage hubs on Earth, and in the U.S. arguably the most important. Delivery for West Texas Intermediate crude is taken here, priced for Nymex contracts and stored before it’s shipped to refineries."
https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/05/cushing-oklahoma-small-town-is-holding-illions-in-black-gold.html
Truly PB is educational!!!0 -
His timeline reads more like a mad conspiracy theorist pushing an agenda, as opposed to a data scientist. The “fake nurse” profile looks like a comedy spoof, and he’s not showing the output from what he claims is now a deleted account.FrancisUrquhart said:Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.
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Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.1
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medical guy on Newsnight saying he has never had a MD shift in 20 years that was so quiet.
People have lost faith in general medicine, hospital appointments etc etc.1 -
You’re right that predicting inflation feels somewhat brave; in 2008 everyone expected QE to lead to inflation, whereas what actually happened was that asset prices inflated but the feared retail and wage rate inflation never materialised. Hence what was expected to hit savers actually rewarded those with assets with the losers being those without, primcipally the young.stodge said:
I'm struggling with some of this:IanB2 said:
- a lot of money is being dropped into the economy;
- there is some pent up demand waiting for lockdown to end;
- supply disruption means some things are in short supply (cf. fruit and veg prices);
- companies desperately need to recover their balance sheets (cf. 2021 cruise prices);
- we may be at peak globalisation, and stuff made cheaply in China may need to be produced again in the west;
- inflation is by far the least worst political resolution of the impending debt crisis.
- Apart from the money spent immediately fighting the virus, the furlough money is, I suppose, in lieu of direct welfare and will be withdrawn at some point down the line.
- Agree about the demand but until people feel safe and confident, will that demand be fully released?
- Are the shortages of labour or of distribution? My home delivered fruit and veg from New Covent Garden all seems fine and well priced.
- Well, yes, but I'd have thought luring people back with discounts would be the first step.
- I don't see how we can match China's prices and how much do we get from India or Bangladesh? Could help Africa I suppose.
I agree I'd rather work an hour for 30 inflated pounds than 5 deflated pounds but I'm still not convinced we will see a big spike in inflation.
This time however the printed money is dropping straight into the economy, on top of the money saved by consumers not spending on discretionary stuff. Whereas my meals out and drinks down the pub used to pay someone’s wages, now the government is paying those wages but I still have my meals out money in the bank.
Supply shortages will arise from a combination of disruption to production and to transport. Basic stuff like not having people able to pick fruit and veg.
We can’t match China’s prices. But in the new economy globalised free trade may, for the first time, start to wane.0 -
Providing France and Spain permit entry and the FCO hasn't banned it we will drive to Spain in August as planned. Mrs RP needs to see her dad, the kids need to see their Abuelo. Yes of course it's holiday. But always the same town where the family live. As El Campello is a seaside town for Madrid natives and resident expats it won't be knackered by the forced closure of hotels as it only has a few.
Suspect that package holidays to the costas won't be a big thing this year...0 -
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Though Google cache does seem to be all rather pro government. No sign of it being a parody.rottenborough said:
I'm totally lost. The example account that appears to be quoted reads like Private Eye spoof to me.williamglenn said:Another PR disaster for the government.
https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/1252319591952519168
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1252355901765238784?s=090 -
Good interview with Heneghan on Newsnight.1
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The big thing i really really didnt understand the UK government banning asap was concerts. 1000s of people all rammed together in a hot sweaty environment, bashing into one another for several hours on end.Alistair said:No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.
I had tickets during that time and there was absolutely no way i was going to them.0 -
Sweden has a much higher death rate than Norway and Germany and Taiwan and South Korea though, which shows it maybe mass testing that makes the difference more than lockdowneadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=210 -
You should be backing out of the deal, unless you fancy being in negative equity soon.Balrog said:
So how does that read across to property buying. I put an offer in on a house in Manchester in November at the asking price. I'm buying from the builder and they have been very slow so we haven't exchanged yet. Should I be holding the price, or looking for a discount as cash is probably worth more to them now and prices will be falling soon if not already?Casino_Royale said:On spending for as long as I'm getting a full salary my plan is to spend as normally as possible - I'm conscious others depend on it.
This does not extend to South Western Railway.
We were already in a bubble, now we're in a depression. Plus, we've no idea what the new normal is yet. House prices down about 35% over the next couple of years, I reckon. Maybe I'm wrong, but the downside is much greater than the upside at the moment.0 -
The Guardian is relentlessly pushing an angle, but most in Sweden are happy not to be in lockdown misery. (My theory is that the Guardian's target eyeballs are mopey people happy to be at home with their cats.)SouthamObserver said:0 -
I have been saying this for weeksAndy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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I think I once had a very good (but expensive) smorgasbord in one of those buildingsSouthamObserver said:0 -
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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Anecdote: the gate to the surgery by the fish and chip shop was blown shut, causing patients to think the practice was closed for the duration. Well, at least two patients until yours truly intervened.rottenborough said:medical guy on Newsnight saying he has never had a MD shift in 20 years that was so quiet.
People have lost faith in general medicine, hospital appointments etc etc.
ETA a friend would not go into a pharmacy because "that's where the Covid-19 patients go to collect their medicine".0 -
Not so puzzling when they have no PPE kit....Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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As long as its not Piers Morgan.Malmesbury said:
We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.eadric said:
Yes, it does.DougSeal said:
Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21
If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....0 -
I went to one on the 21st February, and did a half marathon on the 8th March. About as late as seemed sensible for those types of events.FrancisUrquhart said:
The big thing i really really didnt understand the UK government banning asap was concerts. 1000s of people all rammed together in a hot sweaty environment, bashing into one another for several hours on end.Alistair said:No lockdown sweden also banned gatherings of over 500 people whilst British experts were saying it would have no effect and extended that to ban meetings of over 50 people at the end of march.
I had tickets during that time and there was absolutely no way i was going to them.0 -
Yes, and I have agreed. In part it is fear from patients, but there are also infrastructure issues. With our main operating theatres now overflow ICU and our anaesthetic machines being used as ventilators, with the anaesthetists running the place and supervising proning teams of orthopedic juniors, it isn't really surprising that hip replacements are not being done, is it?NerysHughes said:
I have been saying this for weeksAndy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
You cannot simultaneously use the Canberra as a Falklands hospital ship, and sell tickets for a South Atlantic Cruise to pensioners!2 -
Sweden is not doing much better economically - but it is doing better socially, whereas the rest of us have hosed the low-income workers in hospitality while clever professionals get to WFH.0
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This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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NewsNight excellent tonight. Prof Carl Henegan and Prof Linda Bauld.0
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The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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Before Twitter and other social media it felt as if the general level of bossiness and self-righteousness in society was always going down throughout the 80s, 90s and noughties. Twitter's big "achievement" has been to bring them back and it isn't a positive development IMO.eadric said:
Without being too virtuous - I hope - we are entering an epoch when we all need to be a bit more understanding of each other, and the perils of the human condition.Foxy said:
A school friend of mine got chucked out of the force for crashing a party while drunk. Mind you he did smash the front door off its hinges to do so.eadric said:
Ffs he’s a human. He didn’t punch or kick anyone. In America he would have shot someone and then got away with it.ydoethur said:
However provocative they were being, there is no way a police officer can threaten to commit perjury as part of an incident. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.eadric said:ydoethur said:
He should be kicked off the force for being terminally fucking stupid.TheScreamingEagles said:I hope this is the first step in him and his colleague being sacked and then being charged.
'Make something up' threat Lancashire Police officer suspended
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52358114
What sort of imbecile promises to lie, claiming that he will be believed, while being filmed?
Before we crucify the officer, I’d like to see the full context of the video. Just how provocative were those kids being?
I am well aware the police can be arseholes. I’ve seen it myself. But right now I’d err on the side of caution before condemning.
I just wish they’d stop these absurd virtue signaling videos of dancing and clapping.
But doing it on camera - that’s utterly cretinous.
His mouth was bigger than his brain. It’s not good. Demote him. Whatever. But a career should not end over a stupid statement, and we do need to see the bigger video if we can.
He was a a bit Constable Savage so no one was too surprised.
The absurd snitching and cancel culture of social media needs to end. People are going to say mad things from all ends of politics. We need to cut some slack for the Labour activist nurse who fibs about PPE just as we tolerate the cop who gets a bit mouthy in Cumbria.
We don’t have time for this shit. Let people say sorry and let them keep their jobs.1 -
I expect Guido will be onto it eventually but if this is the government, heads should roll. Oh, hold on, what am I saying? This is CCHQ's GE2019 redux.Sandpit said:
His timeline reads more like a mad conspiracy theorist pushing an agenda, as opposed to a data scientist. The “fake nurse” profile looks like a comedy spoof, and he’s not showing the output from what he claims is now a deleted account.FrancisUrquhart said:Bit concerned inspector poriot of twitter, might be more inspectator gadget, as he is currently asking twitter who the head of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee is.
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The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....MarqueeMark said:
As long as its not Piers Morgan.Malmesbury said:
We locked down too early. We also locked down too late, too much, too little, too long, too short, too up, too down. too blue. Also grey with mauve patches.eadric said:
Yes, it does.DougSeal said:
Reading this board is like watching someone’s bipolar play out. So is this the end of the world or a massive overreaction? Depends on the time of day.eadric said:This is by far the bigger news. If this is true then.... most western nations have made an historic error based on weird Chinese behaviour and a health system break down in Lombardy
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/1252351376182534145?s=21
If you look long enough into the Abyss of Numbers, Piers Corbyn will look back at you....0 -
That’s brilliant, made me laughFrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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"An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...SouthamObserver said:1 -
As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=190 -
Some interesting points being made on Newsnight by Mervyn King.0
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NerysHughes said:
I have been saying this for weeksAndy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
And people have explained why.NerysHughes said:
I have been saying this for weeksAndy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
Time and again.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1
Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
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Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes.FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
This is NYC, but I suspect a similar story here:
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/massive-spike-in-nyc-cardiac-arrest-deaths-seen-as-sign-of-covid-19-undercounting/2368678/
In part it could be Covid-19 myocarditis, or it could be those who should have pitched up in ED with their chest pain, but didn't.0 -
An Albanian cab driver told me that he 'ad that Keith Starmer in the back of the cab....MarqueeMark said:
"An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...SouthamObserver said:
On a comic note, I am taking an elderly relative to a West London hospital tomorrow for a checkup. So I shall see what is actually happening in non-COVID medicine...0 -
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=190 -
Not the Chief SpAd then?MarqueeMark said:
"An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...SouthamObserver said:0 -
I agree. 111 should not be directing people with cough and fever to self isolste. They should be booked to a drive in swab centre. Too many late presentations, IMO.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
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It could be - but given several stories (such as the Chancellor ruling out any economic help, hours before he rolled out...) - the above analysis could well be true.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not the Chief SpAd then?MarqueeMark said:
"An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...SouthamObserver said:
In easier times, I would suggest having some fun with planting bullshit stories to test the hypothesis.0 -
So like the pathologist? Always has the correct diagnosis, just 24 hours too late...rottenborough said:
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=192 -
Surely mid-pandemic Malcolm Tucker would be kept firmly in his box.williamglenn said:Another PR disaster for the government.
https://twitter.com/JimBoardman/status/12523195919525191680 -
Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shopsrottenborough said:
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/0 -
Bit drastic, surely ?Foxy said:
Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
I'm tending towards the opinion that anyone called Piers needs to be locked up. There's something wrong with them.Malmesbury said:
The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....
0 -
Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1
Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.0 -
Quite possibly. Look earlier in the thread for both sides accused of fake NHS propaganda.Malmesbury said:
It could be - but given several stories (such as the Chancellor ruling out any economic help, hours before he rolled out...) - the above analysis could well be true.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Not the Chief SpAd then?MarqueeMark said:
"An insider close to Downing Street" is a hack in an Uber on Whitehall, filing what the press would love to hear but never will, because everyone in Govt. has stopped talking to them because they are behaving like twats...SouthamObserver said:
In easier times, I would suggest having some fun with planting bullshit stories to test the hypothesis.0 -
It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.Anabobazina said:
Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1
Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.0 -
A very long time lurker here, tempted out of cover by Mike's post above.
Very happy indeed to make a small contribution for the many years of reading pleasure, and (more often than not) genuine insight this site and comments have given me. I stumbled across PB and read avidly in the run up to the 2008 Presidential. It feels a lifetime ago, but most things do these days.
I suppose my way of saying that while I even feel a little guilty at not contributing to discussion here, that discussion is appreciated by more than you might expect, so, thank you.3 -
I quite agree. When I am Absolutely Not A Dictator of Britain.....Andrew said:
I'm tending towards the opinion that anyone called Piers needs to be locked up. There's something wrong with them.Malmesbury said:
The other Piers is worse for your sanity. Colour Out Of Space is a quiet, amusing tale by comparison....0 -
That’s one of the theories about Germany’s apparently low death rate. They actively seek to get Covid patients into hospital asap.Foxy said:
I agree. 111 should not be directing people with cough and fever to self isolste. They should be booked to a drive in swab centre. Too many late presentations, IMO.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
1 -
I’m not sure it really matters. As both agreed, what counts is how we manage things post lockdown, whether that’s in a week’s time or a month.Andy_JS said:
It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.Anabobazina said:
Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1
Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.0 -
Harsh but fair...Nigelb said:
Bit drastic, surely ?Foxy said:
Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
Results oriented ?Foxy said:
Harsh but fair...Nigelb said:
Bit drastic, surely ?Foxy said:
Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
Difficult to stick to it, since we have yet to practice it.HYUFD said:
Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shopsrottenborough said:
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
But I agree it is one to be followed.1 -
Got to make that 4hr target!Nigelb said:
Results oriented ?Foxy said:
Harsh but fair...Nigelb said:
Bit drastic, surely ?Foxy said:
Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
Possibly. But for whatever reasons, we can't do mass testing in this country as we don't have the kit/chemicals/swabs/gloves/whatever today's excuse isHYUFD said:
Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shopsrottenborough said:
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/0 -
Good to know that best practice is so deeply embedded.Foxy said:
Got to make that 4hr target!Nigelb said:
Results oriented ?Foxy said:
Harsh but fair...Nigelb said:
Bit drastic, surely ?Foxy said:
Sure, you do get the odd idiot, but frankly they don't take much time. If the triage nurse gets those sort of conditions she will send the patient away, and if not the ECP will despatch them in a few minutes....FrancisUrquhart said:
The examples he gave was people came straight from a flight complaining ear feeling funny and another who brought their kid saying their hair didn't seem to be growing very quickly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is what drives me up the wall about doctors. How are patients expected to know if their symptoms are trivial or serious? If you ask patients to triage themselves, expect mistakes.FrancisUrquhart said:
I posted a video of a A&E doctor who does vlogs and he said while not seeing the usual time wasters and those that should be going to GPs, always seeing people with things like chest pains who have waited days and only gone when they have gone downhill.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
In Leicester, I reckon it peaked Holy Week. We do have some fairly poorly patients in ICU though, and not easy to wean off.Andy_JS said:
It's disturbing that it appears to be so difficult to work out when the peak occurred or if it's occurred.Anabobazina said:
Henegan and Bauld on Newsnight were of the opposite position.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1252346627165048833/photo/1
Lockdown scientists seem to be driving things tonight.
Prof H reckons the peak occurred before lockdown and that hand washing and social distancing is the key factor.0 -
I should hope no one would be surprised at that reaction. People don't remember nuance, but they remember the very clear central messaging and that would definitely see that happen.Andy_JS said:Newsnight: two medical experts saying it's very concerning that people don't seem to be using GPs and hospitals for conditions other than coronavirus.
0 -
Good to hear from you, after all these years. Welcome to the front line.PastoralSign said:A very long time lurker here, tempted out of cover by Mike's post above.
Very happy indeed to make a small contribution for the many years of reading pleasure, and (more often than not) genuine insight this site and comments have given me. I stumbled across PB and read avidly in the run up to the 2008 Presidential. It feels a lifetime ago, but most things do these days.
I suppose my way of saying that while I even feel a little guilty at not contributing to discussion here, that discussion is appreciated by more than you might expect, so, thank you.
2 -
Doesn't seem like scientists in places with stringent lockdowns are being convinced to change course as a result of Sweden. If the latter are right, most places are doubling down before they find that out.0
-
This is one of my personal fears that I seem to know many who have convinced themselves they had the thing back in February or earlier. Wandering round with that degree of assuredness post-lockdown, without testing, is a real risk for the many family reunions we'll be seeing not long after.williamglenn said:
Unfortunately, in the absence of testing, it's hard to persuade them otherwise.3 -
China Rolls Out Pilot Test of Digital Currency
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rolls-out-pilot-test-of-digital-currency-115873853390 -
It has not escaped British eyes that Germany seems to be efficient at these things:rottenborough said:
Possibly. But for whatever reasons, we can't do mass testing in this country as we don't have the kit/chemicals/swabs/gloves/whatever today's excuse isHYUFD said:
Stick to the German model, currently 56 deaths per million to 156 deaths per million in Sweden. Having mass testing, Germany now reopening small shopsrottenborough said:
As the good professor says on the UnHerd video - come back to me in a year.HYUFD said:As of tonight Sweden deaths per million 156, US deaths per million 128
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1251967623304146944?s=19
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252249517208018944?s=09
And there is that old polling favourite showing no change:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1252276937864679424?s=191 -
Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-523589200 -
I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.kle4 said:Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-523589200 -
Ah, shucks, no 4th GE in 15 months after all - coalition deal in Israel. And this part makes it sound very good for Netanyahu's longer term prospects, subject to his legal woes.
Mr Gantz, our correspondent adds, has ditched half of the political alliance he built over three elections - it had fractured under the strain of Mr Netanyahu's manoeuvres, with the coronavirus emergency providing a backdrop of urgency.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-523584790 -
Though it does look as if the Swedes are not quite so convinced either. The grass is always greener:kle4 said:Doesn't seem like scientists in places with stringent lockdowns are being convinced to change course as a result of Sweden. If the latter are right, most places are doubling down before they find that out.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1252236927161364482?s=191 -
Surely that should be a one man planet...Jonathan said:
Sorry, you’re not coming too. Venus is strictly a one person planet. Get your arse to Mars.IanB2 said:
How would you know, visibility on Venus being so poor?Jonathan said:
More than 2m apart.IanB2 said:
It’s hardly staying at home, though, is it?Jonathan said:
Is it worth moving to that less hostile environment? No CV19 on Venus.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Venus very prominent in the west right now.IshmaelZ said:
CORRECTION: Westish. Look for Orion.IshmaelZ said:Good Starlink viewing tonight if you look Eastish at 9.55 ish, allegedly
https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/11438821/how-to-see-starlink-elon-musk-spacex-satelite-uk/0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/15/domestic-abuse-killings-treble-victims-could-offered-escape/
Domestic killings up by 250% in lockdown. Horrific statistic which pushes me a long way towards the Swedish approach.0 -
Sounding a bit like the Turks aren't overly keen on exporting PPE all of a sudden .....0
-
I have never understood why London Live is still going. You get the occasional story about them often having no measurable audience.FrancisUrquhart said:
I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.kle4 said:Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10785953/London-Live-broadcast-to-zero-viewers-on-eight-occasions.html0 -
Just to be clear, don't fancy being sued by London Live owner, I was talking about the YouTube Channel that the interview was from. Why London Live was running that interview I don't know, do they usually show content from London Real? Because if they are, that is a very "interesting" decision.PastoralSign said:
I have never understood why London Live is still going. You get the occasional story about them often having no measurable audience.FrancisUrquhart said:
I notice that the channel behind the David Icke interview that kicked it all off have doubled down with an Alex Jones interview.kle4 said:Interesting comment from Ofcom that Eamonn Holmes' remarks were 'ambiguous'. I'd contest that, his remarks were pretty clear in their meaning, he simply sought to make them more ambiguous afterwards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52358920
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/10785953/London-Live-broadcast-to-zero-viewers-on-eight-occasions.html
London Real is a very very strange YouTube channel. It appears to have long form interviews with plenty of mainstream normal folk, then has an equal number of shall we say fringe individuals.0 -
What could possibly go wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:China Rolls Out Pilot Test of Digital Currency
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rolls-out-pilot-test-of-digital-currency-115873853390 -
Be interesting to see what happens to the digital currency held by those that criticise the government.....rottenborough said:
What could possibly go wrong.FrancisUrquhart said:China Rolls Out Pilot Test of Digital Currency
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rolls-out-pilot-test-of-digital-currency-115873853391 -
-
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They could call it "extending the transition"?HYUFD said:2 -
It doesn't sound that different to Germany. Small shops to open in a few weeks, but nothing big like sports, concerts, etc until the Autumn. And continued WFH for people throughout summer (I don't know what Germany's approach on this is).HYUFD said:twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1252350276549226502?s=20
twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1252361232415207433?s=20
Bit worrying that they say it is spreading quickly in hospitals. Care homes are very difficult, but hospitals appear on the surface to have planned, separated out CV from non-CV, etc.1 -
