politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A message from Mike Smithson

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Yeah the comment levels are currently are at last week of a general election levels which means the Vanilla costs are up a lot.

Fysics_Teacher said:

How do we contribute?

Click on the donate button I assume.

Fysics_Teacher said:

How do we contribute?

Press the donate button under Mike's name and it'll take you to the Paypal site for donations.

Sandpit said:

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...

I'm going for Thomas Cromwell.

https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1252264843488440327

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...

The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...

The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!

You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.

This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.

TheScreamingEagles said:

First, donation on the way.

I love the way that comment implies you were so anxious to secure a first that you commented, THEN sent your donation...

Donation on its way. All the best.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First, donation on the way.

I love the way that comment implies you were so anxious to secure a first that you commented, THEN sent your donation...

Is that a hint of jealousy in your voice there?

I've donated in the past and am happy to do so this time. I'm told by my family I spend more time reading PB than I do with them (I'm not sure they think this is good...).

What I'm curious about is what the running cost of the site is. Does vanilla charge based on traffic or posts or storage? And what's the typical monthly cost and how much does it increase at times when there are high volumes of posts. I guess this might be commercially sensitive so perhaps not something to be posted but I'd welcome a DM.
I'm curious because I like to have a feel for these things, not because I'm going to set up something similar...

RobD said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

First, donation on the way.

I love the way that comment implies you were so anxious to secure a first that you commented, THEN sent your donation...

Is that a hint of jealousy in your voice there?

Certainly not,

It was a fully paid up, out and out fury of jealousy.

Donation on its way.

Spend it on oil. Negative oil prices...? What the hell has happened to the world.

RobD said:

tyson said:

FFS...Mike....I saw the threader head and the picture...I thought we were being told you were taking the leap to the great unknown....

Anyway I bunged you 50 notes....and think you should still put these ads on periodically....I know the site is mostly populated by Brexiteer types with short arms and deep pockets...

But it's a really good site

Shall we make it a competition between Remainers and Brexiteers? That'll really pump up the donation totals.

I reckon we should recruit the Walking Captain to fund raise for OGH....

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

FFS...Mike....I saw the threader head and the picture...I thought we were being told you were taking the leap to the great unknown....

Anyway I bunged you 50 notes....and think you should still put these ads on periodically....I know the site is mostly populated by Brexiteer types with short arms and deep pockets...

But it's a really good site

Shall we make it a competition between Remainers and Brexiteers? That'll really pump up the donation totals.

I reckon we should recruit the Walking Captain to fund raise for OGH....

OGH doing laps of his property on a unicycle?

Donation made. Probably smaller than it would have been a couple of months ago!

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

FFS...Mike....I saw the threader head and the picture...I thought we were being told you were taking the leap to the great unknown....

Anyway I bunged you 50 notes....and think you should still put these ads on periodically....I know the site is mostly populated by Brexiteer types with short arms and deep pockets...

But it's a really good site

Shall we make it a competition between Remainers and Brexiteers? That'll really pump up the donation totals.

I reckon we should recruit the Walking Captain to fund raise for OGH....

With @TOPPING and @Dura_Ace providing an honour guard?

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

For comparison, PB had just over 400,000 page views in January.

So we've more than doubled since January.

rottenborough said:

Vanilla charge by the amount of comments? Have I understood that correctly?

Not quite, it is by page views, however more comments generally means more page views.

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

As a general rule, be greedy when others are fearful. Luxury goods like wine may suddenly become cheaper in the short term if no one is buying.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Balrog said:

I've donated in the past and am happy to do so this time. I'm told by my family I spend more time reading PB than I do with them (I'm not sure they think this is good...).

What I'm curious about is what the running cost of the site is. Does vanilla charge based on traffic or posts or storage? And what's the typical monthly cost and how much does it increase at times when there are high volumes of posts. I guess this might be commercially sensitive so perhaps not something to be posted but I'd welcome a DM.
I'm curious because I like to have a feel for these things, not because I'm going to set up something similar...

It's a tiered structure, for up to 250k page views a month it is $689 per month.

Above that it goes up a lot.

Currently we're on nearly a million page views in the last month.

Edit - That's just via the vanilla forums, and not including via the main site.

So if we access through the main site, does it not get charged for?

We do, it's still a page view.

I just only have the stats for via the vanilla forums to hand.

From the last thread, the A400 has the following capabilities

Range at 30-tonne payload: 4,500 km (2,450 nmi)
Range at 20-tonne payload: 6,400 km (3,450 nmi)

The distance to Turkey is 2800Km. Given that the PPE is low density, the issue may also be volume.

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver

If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....

Or you might be paid to drink it.

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...

The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!

You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.

This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.

I trust you told them not to be so crude?

You shale pay for that pun....

Well, well, well!

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

FFS...Mike....I saw the threader head and the picture...I thought we were being told you were taking the leap to the great unknown....

Anyway I bunged you 50 notes....and think you should still put these ads on periodically....I know the site is mostly populated by Brexiteer types with short arms and deep pockets...

But it's a really good site

Shall we make it a competition between Remainers and Brexiteers? That'll really pump up the donation totals.

I reckon we should recruit the Walking Captain to fund raise for OGH....

OGH doing laps of his property on a unicycle?

With the entire LibDem parliamentary party balancing on his shoulders?

ydoethur said:

It would be quite interesting to have a thermometer, with a target, so we can see how donations stack up.

I'd certainly like to know if the site is in trouble on the funding front, seeing as this is a bit of a lifeline for me with my current situation.

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Train as a nurse or doctor - there seems to be some demand for those.

eadric said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver

If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....

It could be the first luxury product to be hammered. Outrageously pricey wine depends so much on discretionary spending by socially aspirant Asians. Not a great market to be reliant upon

I'm inclined to agree with you.

However, I expected my sales of rare books to tank.

They haven't.

In some areas, they've gone up. Lower priced (£50-350), very unusual books are still selling really well.

My main problem is fulfilment. I can't send the books I've had orders for because the institutions that have ordered them are closed.

eadric said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Balrog said:

I've donated in the past and am happy to do so this time. I'm told by my family I spend more time reading PB than I do with them (I'm not sure they think this is good...).

What I'm curious about is what the running cost of the site is. Does vanilla charge based on traffic or posts or storage? And what's the typical monthly cost and how much does it increase at times when there are high volumes of posts. I guess this might be commercially sensitive so perhaps not something to be posted but I'd welcome a DM.
I'm curious because I like to have a feel for these things, not because I'm going to set up something similar...

It's a tiered structure, for up to 250k page views a month it is $689 per month.

Above that it goes up a lot.

Currently we're on nearly a million page views in the last month.

Half of those might be me. Sorry about that.

So would it help if we disciplined ourselves and looked less often?

The other question is, does refreshing the page count as a new view? Or is it done on fresh hits?

Yes, quite. I had no idea vanilla charged by page views. I will now feel guilty as I reload.

I presumed the more times I hit the site, the better it was for OGH

Don't feel guilty, the more you refreshed, it increased the ad revenues for PB, which mitigates the cost of the servers and vanilla a little bit.

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver

If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....

It could be the first luxury product to be hammered. Outrageously pricey wine depends so much on discretionary spending by socially aspirant Asians. Not a great market to be reliant upon

I'm inclined to agree with you.

However, I expected my sales of rare books to tank.

They haven't.

In some areas, they've gone up. Lower priced (£50-350), very unusual books are still selling really well.

My main problem is fulfilment. I can't send the books I've had orders for because the institutions that have ordered them are closed.

The collectibles/valuables markets - stamps, watches etc - are seeing some odd patterns, I've been told. Some parts roaring along - well above usual numbers

Anyone else having difficulty with the donate link?

Malmesbury said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver

If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....

It could be the first luxury product to be hammered. Outrageously pricey wine depends so much on discretionary spending by socially aspirant Asians. Not a great market to be reliant upon

I'm inclined to agree with you.

However, I expected my sales of rare books to tank.

They haven't.

In some areas, they've gone up. Lower priced (£50-350), very unusual books are still selling really well.

My main problem is fulfilment. I can't send the books I've had orders for because the institutions that have ordered them are closed.

The collectibles/valuables markets - stamps, watches etc - are seeing some odd patterns, I've been told. Some parts roaring along - well above usual numbers

Whereas the classic car market is on its arse, except for the very top eight-figure cars.

kle4 said:

Anyone else having difficulty with the donate link?

Hopefully bending under the strain of donations.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

I was supposed to be on US, Japan and Australia this year. Unless i accidentally become a plague survivor, there is absolutely no chance i am getting on a load of long haul flights.

rottenborough said:

Out of interest, I still see adverts at the top, so I presume they are paying less because fewer companies are buying digital ads?

Youtube ads are down about 50% by revenue in the last couple of months. Lots of companies are just not interested in advertising at the moment, for obvious reasons.

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

I've at least four years worth of outgoings in the bank and a fairly secure job, even though I've been told there will be no bonuses this year, about a quarter of my income.

And I have stopped spending. I don't mean, I've stopped spending on going out, that's taken as a given. I mean, I have looked at all the large discretionary purchases I was planning on making this year, from a new gaming rig, a refurbished bathroom, to another snazzy new watch, and said OK, that will have to wait. The jeweller has already phoned me desperate to know if I want to skip the wait list. But no. Apparently everyone else has had the same idea.

Unless it's absolutely essential or breaks, the money stays in my pocket.

And I am quite well off. I can only imagine what people who were living hand to mouth before all this are feeling.

The economy is in dire shape, it will get worse from here, I think only discount brands selling essential products have a chance of doing well or even surviving this.

This is a health crisis, but an economic catastrophe.

eadric said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

Did you see this from WHO today?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1252294734405648387?s=21

Truly gloomy. The second wave will likely be worse.

This is with us for a year, or more, and we are only in the foothills.

I did, is the view of experts in this field my father knows.

They think what will happen is once the lockdown is over people will go back to normal, or ignore social distancing, and the second wave will be much worse.

Let's be honest, we're all making plans to see friends and family once this all over, it'll be a collection of large parties at home and we're all buggered.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I have to admit I've made some decisions for the future.

I'm unlikely to go overseas for the near future, airplanes, even in first class, they seem like ideal vectors to spread something like Covid-19.

If Covid-19 or something similar comes back in the future then I really don't want to be trapped overseas as the planes stop and get stuck in an overwhelmed health system like America or Italy.

I was supposed to be on US, Japan and Australia this year. Unless i accidentally become a plague survivor, there is absolutely no chance i am getting on a load of long haul flights.

Have to admit I'm not keen on using trains, which might be an issue as I'm a daily train user.

Malmesbury said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

Mortimer said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

For the first time in a long while, I am worried about money. And I have a decent amount, by the standards of most people.

But what will my future income be? I simply don’t know. And I am the breadwinner for three people. They all depend on me. If I got this bug and croaked they’d be screwed.

I find myself pondering the price of a bottle of really nice wine, and thinking, hmm, maybe not. Dial it down

If that is happening to me it must be happening to 99.9% of humanity. Consumer demand is going to nosedive

Wine growers of France start panicking now!

It’s not calamitous. Yet. But I’ve gone from daily drinking wines in the £20-£40 bracket to the £10-£20 range.

Indeed I reckon absurdly expensive French wine is going to take a big hit in this crisis. It is wildly overpriced. The Chinese are staring at their first recession in 50 years. And they are huge buyers of hideously expensive claret.

Coming soon to a Lidl near you, Haut Brion for a fiver

If it follows oil, bottles may be more expensive than the contents....

It could be the first luxury product to be hammered. Outrageously pricey wine depends so much on discretionary spending by socially aspirant Asians. Not a great market to be reliant upon

I'm inclined to agree with you.

However, I expected my sales of rare books to tank.

They haven't.

In some areas, they've gone up. Lower priced (£50-350), very unusual books are still selling really well.

My main problem is fulfilment. I can't send the books I've had orders for because the institutions that have ordered them are closed.

The collectibles/valuables markets - stamps, watches etc - are seeing some odd patterns, I've been told. Some parts roaring along - well above usual numbers

Rolex Daytonas (the epitome of an overpriced asset) down about 25% on the secondary market in the last week.

Presumably because the ADs can't give them away at a third of the price right now.

IshmaelZ said:

rottenborough said:

Out of interest, I still see adverts at the top, so I presume they are paying less because fewer companies are buying digital ads?

I keep getting some very weird people who can help me to get a knighthood or OBE. And, no, this is not targetted to my personal browsing habits as far as I can see.

That's probably my fault and my attempts to get a Royal Dukedom or a GCMG.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Second!
Damn, Richard III

Why? What have your nephews done to deserve being brutally murdered?

I hope you’re not harbouring inappropriate thoughts about your nieces...

The only inappropriate thoughts today are about oil prices!

You have sexual lusts after the price of oil?

That’s so kinky even SeanT would blink at it.

This is turning into a conversation my friends had in our early 20s about whether oil would make a good lubricant in the bedroom.

I trust you told them not to be so crude?

Here’s hoping for a more refined conversation.

Count me in @MikeSmithson. Donation sent.

'Tis but a small fraction of my winnings from good tips over the years, though I did miss out on one famous 50/1 tip some years ago...

But more than the financial return, it has given me great pleasure arguing and punning over the years.

McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

McDonnell on novara media. He is all over the place at the moment.

Do you mean emotionally or physically?

Needless to say the best site out there.

Funnily enough although an important community resource right now I'm not so sure the quality of the debate is at its best. A bunch of people selectively quoting whichever epidemiologist most closely agrees with their point of view.

While most also, with a few notable exceptions, giving the government a free pass on whatever on the hoof policy seems most expedient at any particular time.

And donated, obvs.