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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority, here’s that in context
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Comments
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The first thing is, let's kill all the lawyers3
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2nd?
Curse you Ishmael :-)0 -
In all fairness, once the present crisis is over, there has never been a better time for a party promising a left wing, redistributive platform with massive health spending.
In the future we will all think of two eras: pre-covid and post. It's not impossible to think that Starmer could be the Attlee to Boris' ersatz Churchill.0 -
Haven't the Conservatives already cornered that platform. All the spare political space will be to the right...kyf_100 said:In all fairness, once the present crisis is over, there has never been a better time for a party promising a left wing, redistributive platform with massive health spending.
In the future we will all think of two eras: pre-covid and post. It's not impossible to think that Starmer could be the Attlee to Boris' ersatz Churchill.0 -
latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
Deleted; point made by others.0
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https://youtu.be/m1W5n2q5EcQ
NHS nurse after a shift
Staying indoors and not sunbathing not so hard - come on people1 -
We should ban Shakespeare as hate material.IshmaelZ said:The first thing is, let's kill all the lawyers
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At risk of being pedantic, Corbyn’s gains were in 2017 not 2015.
Otherwise, seems a reasonable point. The last time a majority as big as this was overturned in one go was fifty years ago. My personal view however is that while 40 gains may get them into government it will require 70 gains for them to stay in it for very long. That’s still a pretty big ask.0 -
Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.0 -
It's difficult to believe the "new cases" represent more than a few percent of the true figures now. They are going to reflect how many people are being tested, and who is being tested.CrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
I would like to see some stats regarding symptom onset. Date of test is pretty meaningless given the varying amount of time it will take people to present in hospital. The other is ICU capacity. Ostensibly that is why we are all doing this. Plenty of anecdotal evidence, some contradictoryCrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
I just read thatTheuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Some great fucking example she is.0 -
The difference is that after the war Churchill wanted to go back to the way things were. He failed to sense the society-wide shift towards collectivism, healthcare and the welfare state would endure for longer than the war.alex_ said:
Haven't the Conservatives already cornered that platform. All the spare political space will be to the right...kyf_100 said:In all fairness, once the present crisis is over, there has never been a better time for a party promising a left wing, redistributive platform with massive health spending.
In the future we will all think of two eras: pre-covid and post. It's not impossible to think that Starmer could be the Attlee to Boris' ersatz Churchill.
I believe we are heading into an economic depression the likes of which none of us have ever seen, that will require government intervention on a level no Conservative would be comfortable.
But Johnson is perhaps enough of a populist to adapt to the times. Whether he will bring his party with him is another matter. As you say, there will be spare political space to the right.1 -
This is getting ludicrous.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
How can she have been so cloth eared?0 -
Which is basically hospitalised people and NHS staff?Chris said:
It's difficult to believe the "new cases" represent more than a few percent of the true figures now. They are going to reflect how many people are being tested, and who is being tested.CrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.
My son not tested, nor his girlfriends step dad0 -
Afternoon all
As others have commented, if Labour can become a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left as it was under Blair, it won't matter about "Blue Walls" or anything else. The 1997 tide swept the Conservatives back to their core heartlands.
Could 2024 be like 1945 or 1997? Short answer, nobody knows and as TSE points out, trying to second guess the future political landscape is close to impossible - Covid-19 is the high tide and all the sandcastles on the beach have been destroyed.
Starmer can be anything you want him to be at his stage but the Devil will, as it always is, be in the detail of practical policies and programmes. The recovery from the coming recession/depression (delete as appropriate) may be long or short but the cultural and psychological memory of this will linger in a way that, for instance the fuel crisis of 2000 didn't.
This is as seminal an event as the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week from the 70s - it will influence us in ways we don't yet realise for years to come.0 -
Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493761 -
Taking in sunlight in the correct doses is good for health, both physical and mental.Floater said:https://youtu.be/m1W5n2q5EcQ
NHS nurse after a shift
Staying indoors and not sunbathing not so hard - come on people
I am fortunate that I have a huge (indeed, overlarge) sunroom I am basking in at the moment.
Again, somebody in a bijou flat in Walthamstow doesn’t have that option.0 -
I think we have to see the trajectory moving forward since there will be some randomness in these percentages. Regarding the lag, since cases are being diagnosed only when patients are taken to hospital in a serious condition, I suspect that deaths may sadly occur more rapidly. Otherwise, it would be difficult to explain the falling numbers in Spain / Italy since they had the largest number of new cases only a week or so ago (and less in the case of Spain), yet the number of fatalities seems to be slowly coming down in both countries.CrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
Fixed.ydoethur said:At risk of being pedantic, Corbyn’s gains were in 2017 not 2015.
Otherwise, seems a reasonable point. The last time a majority as big as this was overturned in one go was fifty years ago. My personal view however is that while 40 gains may get them into government it will require 70 gains for them to stay in it for very long. That’s still a pretty big ask.0 -
The next election won’t be until 2023/24. By that time people will be judging them on results, not promisesIshmaelZ said:
That is why the tories are promising exactly that.kyf_100 said:In all fairness, once the present crisis is over, there has never been a better time for a party promising a left wing, redistributive platform with massive health spending.
...0 -
I don't see how it is a matter of us being 'reduced' to anything. No one ever suggested they were not people. But there are millions upon millions more people who are vulnerable and it is simply fact that a reduced rate of those dying now should indicate a better outcome for those who may die later.Mexicanpete said:
Not if you are one of the 621!eadric said:
That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.TheScreamingEagles said:621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.
Is it working?
These were people not numbers. I find it heartbreaking, that we are reduced to declaring fewer fatalities than yesterday as 'good'.
There will be matters of cold calculation in all this, that happens with major societal issues which affect millions and billions, it is inevitable and not a sign of anything awful in my view - as with any mass system there will always be issues without undermining the overall benefits for exampe - but the personal stories and tragedies are not being lost, they can exist side by side.
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Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.0 -
The error, or the next election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Fixed.ydoethur said:At risk of being pedantic, Corbyn’s gains were in 2017 not 2015.
Otherwise, seems a reasonable point. The last time a majority as big as this was overturned in one go was fifty years ago. My personal view however is that while 40 gains may get them into government it will require 70 gains for them to stay in it for very long. That’s still a pretty big ask.0 -
Does she have to "just check" it every weekend ?ydoethur said:
This is getting ludicrous.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
How can she have been so cloth eared?0 -
Well, that would be one way of stopping her breaking her own rules. Might be the only way...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.0 -
I certainly don't like a pile on, but even if there had been a good reason for one visit, it is hard to imagine who she justified to herself let alone others doing so multiple times given the advice she has been giving.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.1 -
will?kle4 said:
I don't see how it is a matter of us being 'reduced' to anything. No one ever suggested they were not people. But there are millions upon millions more people who are vulnerable and it is simply fact that the rate of those dying now should indicate a better outcome for those who may die later.Mexicanpete said:
Not if you are one of the 621!eadric said:
That’s.... “good”. Fewer deaths.TheScreamingEagles said:621 more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.
Is it working?
These were people not numbers. I find it heartbreaking, that we are reduced to declaring fewer fatalities than yesterday as 'good'.
There will be matters of cold calculation in all this, that happens with major societal issues which affect millions and billions, but the personal stories and tragedies are not being lost, they can exist side by side.
there has to be.1 -
Bet you he's in favour of ID cards.stodge said:Afternoon all
As others have commented, if Labour can become a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left as it was under Blair, it won't matter about "Blue Walls" or anything else. The 1997 tide swept the Conservatives back to their core heartlands.
Could 2024 be like 1945 or 1997? Short answer, nobody knows and as TSE points out, trying to second guess the future political landscape is close to impossible - Covid-19 is the high tide and all the sandcastles on the beach have been destroyed.
Starmer can be anything you want him to be at his stage but the Devil will, as it always is, be in the detail of practical policies and programmes. The recovery from the coming recession/depression (delete as appropriate) may be long or short but the cultural and psychological memory of this will linger in a way that, for instance the fuel crisis of 2000 didn't.
This is as seminal an event as the Winter of Discontent or the Three Day Week from the 70s - it will influence us in ways we don't yet realise for years to come.0 -
If Starmer matched Cameron's 2010 gains he would have just over 300 seats (taking into account boundary changes after 2005 also helped Cameron), short of a majority but enough to form a coalition with the LDs as Cameron did then and assuming LD gains from the Tories too.
If Starmer matched Blair's 1997 gains he would have a small majority but remember 1997 was after 18 years of Tory government not 14 as 2024 will be.
If he only matches Kinnock's 1992 gains then the Tories should hold on as even with SNP and LD support he would likely be unable to form a government and hard to see him holding SNP and DUP support0 -
A man ahead of the times, given the popularity of the nofap movement among the young'uns these days.eadric said:If SeanT is around, he might be amused by THIS
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/four-of-the-best-spectator-pieces-i-ve-ever-read
Many have come to see the influence of pornography for the destructive and corrosive thing it is, it's only the oldies who think it's harmless these days.0 -
The rules she was selling were for the plebs, not for people like her of course.eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.1 -
I'm strongly in favour of welding people in their homes if they repeatedly violate the lockdown.ydoethur said:
Well, that would be one way of stopping her breaking her own rules. Might be the only way...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Make them drink tap water as well.0 -
Under very different circumstances, Margaret Thatcher re-shaped the agenda fundamentally but after 18 years, when the Opposition tacitly accepted everything she had done and offered little more than a continuation of the basic policies with some modest changes, the governing party was swept away.kyf_100 said:The difference is that after the war Churchill wanted to go back to the way things were. He failed to sense the society-wide shift towards collectivism, healthcare and the welfare state would endure for longer than the war.
I believe we are heading into an economic depression the likes of which none of us have ever seen, that will require government intervention on a level no Conservative would be comfortable.
But Johnson is perhaps enough of a populist to adapt to the times. Whether he will bring his party with him is another matter. As you say, there will be spare political space to the right.
IF the "new concensus" emerges around a more left of centre model, that won't hurt Labour as they will be in a good position to offer "the same but with a human face and a history of believing in the NHS". As long as the tenets of Sunakism (new word, you heard it first, here folks!) are retained, Starmer may well look a welcome alternative to Johnson simply because he will be different.
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hospital admissions data is available. that's got to be operating at a lag, sure, but I think its the one bit of data where you will see 'green shoots' first.DougSeal said:
I would like to see some stats regarding symptom onset. Date of test is pretty meaningless given the varying amount of time it will take people to present in hospital. The other is ICU capacity. Ostensibly that is why we are all doing this. Plenty of anecdotal evidence, some contradictoryCrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.1 -
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493760 -
London tap water specially piped up, tap water in Scotland is great.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm strongly in favour of welding people in their homes if they repeatedly violate the lockdown.ydoethur said:
Well, that would be one way of stopping her breaking her own rules. Might be the only way...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Make them drink tap water as well.1 -
If the Govt banned going out for exercise, will you be allowed to run to the shops?
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More likely Francois Hollande to Boris' Sarkozy, at best for Starmerkyf_100 said:In all fairness, once the present crisis is over, there has never been a better time for a party promising a left wing, redistributive platform with massive health spending.
In the future we will all think of two eras: pre-covid and post. It's not impossible to think that Starmer could be the Attlee to Boris' ersatz Churchill.0 -
As good as tap water in Brecon and Radnor. Or Malvern. All of which is exactly he same as the mineral water you buy in the shops (Brecon Carreg, Malvern Hills etc.)Theuniondivvie said:
London tap water specially piped up, tap water in Scotland is great.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm strongly in favour of welding people in their homes if they repeatedly violate the lockdown.ydoethur said:
Well, that would be one way of stopping her breaking her own rules. Might be the only way...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Make them drink tap water as well.0 -
Post COVID there may be a desire for a massive redistributive programme to fund higher public expenditure, but whether it will be possible is another matter. Even Attlee's Govt operated in a period of mass austerity. But he was starting from quite a low public expenditure base.0
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Based on this chart from NYC, although the daily death toll will rise as more are reported, the daily figures are still an accurate indication of a trend
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/12467282272064348160 -
Right now an empty podium would have more credibility.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.2 -
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493761 -
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I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumna of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.
Blair managed a 10% swing, Cameron 5%. Indeed, Thatcher in 1979 (who is some way down the list) managed 5.2%.
It's unlikely, though, and would require a fair few SNP seats as well as Tory (which is another challenge altogether).
I agree that it'd be brave to bet on a Labour majority. His best chance of being PM is probably to start by depriving the Tories of a majority (only a 2% swing required for that - the 40th is Wycombe with a modest 3.85% majority). That would probably at least buy him a second bite of the cherry, and may give him the chance to form a Government depending how far beyond that he gets.
Labour need to be careful on targeting - there is a danger if they target 150+ for a decent majority, it jeopardises their chances of a more realistic good outcome. Privately, I'd seriously aim for no more than 100, with some "development" seats in case the picture starts looking bright a year out from an election.0 -
Again, what's the problem with this?eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Presumably no-one lives at her second home.0 -
All tap water is minging.Theuniondivvie said:
London tap water specially piped up, tap water in Scotland is great.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm strongly in favour of welding people in their homes if they repeatedly violate the lockdown.ydoethur said:
Well, that would be one way of stopping her breaking her own rules. Might be the only way...TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock her up!Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Make them drink tap water as well.0 -
Dunno. I browse with my eyes.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
Sometimes I go into Waitrose and don't quite know what I want but I know I want to buy something nice for my family.0 -
So now when she has to resign Sturgeon looks an idiot.Andy_JS said:
That was spectacularly politically unwise. A degree of distancing, social or not, would have been sensible here.1 -
I got accused of browsing the other day but I was in fact trying to find stuff. The Wife is the normal shopper but she is not going out due to her extreme seasonal allergies and asthma. I couldn’t find the honey and jam section.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493760 -
It will be ignored.alex_ said:If the Govt banned going out for exercise, will you be allowed to run to the shops?
I must be in the 3-4% of the population opposing stupid rules.0 -
She could have taken a cue from the way the armed forces operate and stripped her a rank. And continued to receive her advice.Andy_JS said:1 -
Even during the lockdown ?!Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. I browse with my eyes.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
Sometimes I go into Waitrose and don't quite know what I want but I know I want to buy something nice for my family.0 -
A fine afternoon in East London and I've just spent an interesting hour sitting in the garden reading Tim Shipman.
I'm struggling with how we move from the current status back toward normality without a risk of renewed cases.
Almost every scenario based on some form of resumption of normal activity seems to drive a coach and horses through notions of social distancing and self isolation.
I also had the chance to watch Jacinda Ardern at her latest Press Conference - she has grown into the job as NZ's PM remarkably well. Her comment when asked about the economic damage of a prolonged lock down was:
"A strategy that sacrifices people in favour of, supposedly, a better economic outcome is a false dichotomy and has been shown to produce the worst of both worlds: loss of life and prolonged economic pain,"
The argument therefore is IF lock down is ended too quickly and there is a second wave of cases the economic pain is going to be extended and intensified not foreshortened and reduced0 -
It’s feminine in this case. Alumna. Cambridge education...TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
No, it’s a 10% swing required.SirNorfolkPassmore said:One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
This is target 124:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The SNP hold it by 49% to 28%.
A 5.25% takes Filton and Bradley Stoke, target no. 59. That would still be a greater swing than Thatcher managed.1 -
Right I'm calling it now. After today's massive failure to act by Sturgeon, Jackson Coleslaw will be First Minister next May.2
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Yes, of course.Pulpstar said:
Does she have to "just check" it every weekend ?ydoethur said:
This is getting ludicrous.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
How can she have been so cloth eared?Pulpstar said:
Even during the lockdown ?!Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. I browse with my eyes.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
Sometimes I go into Waitrose and don't quite know what I want but I know I want to buy something nice for my family.0 -
AIUI we have 2 priorities for medical tests. The first is those presenting at hospital with symptoms consistent where you would expect a fairly high number of positives. The second is front line medical staff. 48% is a frightening number in that context.CrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
That's not browsing, that's trying to locate goods. My other half reported husbands on the phone to their wives in the shops last time she went in a presumably similiar situation.DougSeal said:
I got accused of browsing the other day but I was in fact trying to find stuff. The Wife is the normal shopper but she is not going out due to her extreme seasonal allergies and asthma. I couldn’t find the honey and jam section.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/12467999864629493760 -
One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.4 -
Auto-correct fail.DougSeal said:
It’s feminine in this case. Alumna. Cambridge education...TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
To be fair this is a different argument. She is probably not doing harm. But then arguably nor is anyone else doing the same thing. But official guidance/instruction, as enunciated by her in Government briefings and on public broadcasts is not to do it. So she has no defence.Casino_Royale said:
Again, what's the problem with this?eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Presumably no-one lives at her second home.
What other Government guidance can we safely ignore?2 -
Yeah, yeah. Tell it to the judge.TheScreamingEagles said:
Auto-correct fail.DougSeal said:
It’s feminine in this case. Alumna. Cambridge education...TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
Maybe then she's realised that visiting a second home (unoccupied) in a private car at the weekend is no big deal at all for virus spread. None.TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.
I mean, seriously, get a grip people.0 -
I don't think the lockdown can continue for more than 3 or 4 months. Johnson probably understands that. Let's hope the Swedish experiment proves successful.Casino_Royale said:One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.1 -
Not everyone is good at making lists. And often the shops don't have what's on the list and you need to find something else.Pulpstar said:
Even during the lockdown ?!Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. I browse with my eyes.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
Sometimes I go into Waitrose and don't quite know what I want but I know I want to buy something nice for my family.0 -
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Why is Wilko open anyway? What do they sell?Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
https://www.wilko.com/0 -
Wow. Bad move Nicola. Big, big mistake.Andy_JS said:
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And that at that point we have capacity to handle more.Andy_JS said:
I don't think the lockdown can continue for more than 3 or 4 months. Johnson probably understands that. Let's hope the Swedish experiment proves successful.Casino_Royale said:One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.0 -
I've got no chance of ever remembering his name now!SandyRentool said:Right I'm calling it now. After today's massive failure to act by Sturgeon, Jackson Coleslaw will be First Minister next May.
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https://twitter.com/Jackson_Carlaw/status/1246801255474831360?s=20alex_ said:
I've got no chance of ever remembering his name now!SandyRentool said:Right I'm calling it now. After today's massive failure to act by Sturgeon, Jackson Coleslaw will be First Minister next May.
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If he becomes first minister the armed forces will salad him.alex_ said:
I've got no chance of ever remembering his name now!SandyRentool said:Right I'm calling it now. After today's massive failure to act by Sturgeon, Jackson Coleslaw will be First Minister next May.
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It's a bit like Ikea for plebs.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Why is Wilko open anyway? What do they sell?Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
https://www.wilko.com/1 -
Not one country has made it to two months yet. This time two months ago even the lockdown of the whole of Lombardy wasn’t even a twinkle in an epidemiologist’s eye.Andy_JS said:
I don't think the lockdown can continue for more than 3 or 4 months. Johnson probably understands that. Let's hope the Swedish experiment proves successful.Casino_Royale said:One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.0 -
Fixed now, so it's all ok.DougSeal said:
Yeah, yeah. Tell it to the judge.TheScreamingEagles said:
Auto-correct fail.DougSeal said:
It’s feminine in this case. Alumna. Cambridge education...TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
Precisely. People are criticising others (including on here) for actions they themselves are taking, the vast majority of which are fine.HYUFD said:
I haven't seen anyone in my town or village taking this anything but very seriously.
A few families went out on their bikes together yesterday. They kept welll back and clear of others. I think that's fine.1 -
Mr Ukip has a point. Why is being in the park standing up OK but lying down not?HYUFD said:2 -
I think hospital admissions (on the slides presented at the government briefings) would be more helpful. If NHS staff and their families are being tested at a few thousand per day, it could give quite a lot of positive cases that are not that severe... The former figures (the raw numbers for which I don't think exist) will tell us more about how things are progressing perhaps.DavidL said:
AIUI we have 2 priorities for medical tests. The first is those presenting at hospital with symptoms consistent where you would expect a fairly high number of positives. The second is front line medical staff. 48% is a frightening number in that context.CrispyRendang said:latest UK covid-19 test results pretty horrific - most ever daily tests (12,334), up from around 10,000 the last few days, of which 48% were positive, up from 36% a week ago and 12% 2 weeks ago. only 40% positive yesterday
won't see the true toll for around a month until we see the ONS death stats, which lag by 3 weeks on average, plus some days depending on whether these tests are in early stage of infection or what.0 -
You have to be conscious there's a queue of people waiting to get in outside, so you shouldn't be long. So you browse with your eyes very quickly.alex_ said:
Not everyone is good at making lists. And often the shops don't have what's on the list and you need to find something else.Pulpstar said:
Even during the lockdown ?!Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. I browse with my eyes.Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
Sometimes I go into Waitrose and don't quite know what I want but I know I want to buy something nice for my family.
I go in both with a list (of things I know I need) and also have a look for other nice things I might not have thought about.0 -
You don't think SLab's Roland Leopard has a shout on the crest of a Starmeresque wave?SandyRentool said:Right I'm calling it now. After today's massive failure to act by Sturgeon, Jackson Coleslaw will be First Minister next May.
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Absolutely.Andy_JS said:
I don't think the lockdown can continue for more than 3 or 4 months. Johnson probably understands that. Let's hope the Swedish experiment proves successful.Casino_Royale said:One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.1 -
Well when your local hospital is at 110% capacity 90% full of Spanish second homers from Madrid and you can’t get medical treatment you might start to see the problem.Casino_Royale said:
Again, what's the problem with this?eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Presumably no-one lives at her second home.1 -
You're quite right - I was looking at a list of swings required and thought I was looking at majorities.ydoethur said:
No, it’s a 10% swing required.SirNorfolkPassmore said:One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
This is target 124:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The SNP hold it by 49% to 28%.
A 5.25% takes Filton and Bradley Stoke, target no. 59. That would still be a greater swing than Thatcher managed.
In which case I completely reverse my earlier position - that's a really bad map for Starmer and he'd be mad not to go for a two election strategy (privately - he can't admit to it of course).0 -
Lab target seat number 124 actually needs a swing of 10.52%, not 5.25%.SirNorfolkPassmore said:One thing Starmer has is that the way the cards fall, the 124th seat isn't ridiculously safe (5.25% swing required). A 6% swing would probably deliver a reasonable majority.
Blair managed a 10% swing, Cameron 5%. Indeed, Thatcher in 1979 (who is some way down the list) managed 5.2%.
It's unlikely, though, and would require a fair few SNP seats as well as Tory (which is another challenge altogether).
I agree that it'd be brave to bet on a Labour majority. His best chance of being PM is probably to start by depriving the Tories of a majority (only a 2% swing required for that - the 40th is Wycombe with a modest 3.85% majority). That would probably at least buy him a second bite of the cherry, and may give him the chance to form a Government depending how far beyond that he gets.
Labour need to be careful on targeting - there is a danger if they target 150+ for a decent majority, it jeopardises their chances of a more realistic good outcome. Privately, I'd seriously aim for no more than 100, with some "development" seats in case the picture starts looking bright a year out from an election.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour0 -
Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his assalex_ said:
To be fair this is a different argument. She is probably not doing harm. But then arguably nor is anyone else doing the same thing. But official guidance/instruction, as enunciated by her in Government briefings and on public broadcasts is not to do it. So she has no defence.Casino_Royale said:
Again, what's the problem with this?eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Presumably no-one lives at her second home.
What other Government guidance can we safely ignore?0 -
Thanks. I was having the pedant’s equivalent of a panic attack.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fixed now, so it's all ok.DougSeal said:
Yeah, yeah. Tell it to the judge.TheScreamingEagles said:
Auto-correct fail.DougSeal said:
It’s feminine in this case. Alumna. Cambridge education...TheScreamingEagles said:I agree with Nicola Sturgeon, she needs the CMO to stay in post because she's the best qualified person for the role.
She's an alumnus of the JCL college Newnham which makes Dr Calderwood at the top of her field.0 -
Running in the park is probably worse. More likely to come into close contact with others (eg, when passing on the paths) and more likely to exhale CV in their direction inadvertently.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Mr Ukip has a point. Why is being in the park standing up OK but lying down not?HYUFD said:1 -
FPT
I’m afraid I stopped after the French sudden addition of hundreds of deaths that had already happened.Philip_Thompson said:Does anyone have a link to Andy's most recent chart of log deaths per capita if he's still doing it?
We’d already had updates to the UK deaths causing significant changes, and it was highlighted that we weren’t recording deaths outside of hospitals.
I realised that the data was so unreliable at this stage, it wasn’t really worth doing.0 -
They sell lots of household essentials.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Why is Wilko open anyway? What do they sell?Pulpstar said:
Noone should be "browsing" in any shop during lockdown. You come in, get what you need then leave. The queue is fine.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Maybe if the guidance were six feet and not two metres, people might know where to stand.MattW said:Queueing for Wilko this lunchtime.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246796590200782849
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246799986462949376
https://www.wilko.com/
Agree on the browsing, but how do you maintain 2m while pushing them out of the door?
OTOH Wilko sell sweeping brushes, so they could use those :-) .0 -
A really uncharacteristic error.numbertwelve said:1 -
It's not looking great.Andy_JS said:
I don't think the lockdown can continue for more than 3 or 4 months. Johnson probably understands that. Let's hope the Swedish experiment proves successful.Casino_Royale said:One unpleasant thing this lockdown has brought out is the verve by which fellow Britons love policing the actions of others.
I find it rather distasteful.
On 16 March Norway had 1077 cases and 1 death, while Sweden had 992 cases and 3 deaths. On 4 April Norway had 5208 cases and 44 deaths, while Sweden had 6078 cases and 333 deaths. Sweden's apparent fatality rate is 6.5 times higher than Norway's, which no doubt means the percentage of cases they are detecting is only 10-20% of the percentage Norway is detecting.1 -
Thinking about recent political leaders, the first rule in that list was broken by Corbyn, the second probably by Boris, and the last by [CENSORED CENSORED CENSORED]BannedinnParis said:
Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour's wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his assalex_ said:
To be fair this is a different argument. She is probably not doing harm. But then arguably nor is anyone else doing the same thing. But official guidance/instruction, as enunciated by her in Government briefings and on public broadcasts is not to do it. So she has no defence.Casino_Royale said:
Again, what's the problem with this?eadric said:
Madness. What possessed her?! Beyond stupid.Theuniondivvie said:Caldwerood admits to visiting her holiday home on successive weekends.
She has to go even if we have to replace her with an empty podium.
Presumably no-one lives at her second home.
What other Government guidance can we safely ignore?
1
