politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is
Comments
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I know things are a bit grim, so here's a happy tune to cheer you all up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZokPAuhD6k1 -
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-20201 -
That was based on Trump speaking for an alleged Saudi/Russian deal being on the table to help US shale producers not have negative prices. I'm reserving judgement until an actual deal looks to be coming.IanB2 said:
Enjoy while it lasts, soon be on the way up if the crude price is any judgeydoethur said:
When was it last that low? 2007? A long time ago, anyway!Alanbrooke said:just paid 96.7 a litre for petrol
it seemed weird watching the litres rise faster than the pounds
For those taking a long view on shares, Royal Dutch Shell is worth a look.0 -
The questions were better todayAlastairMeeks said:Good on Robert Peston setting up a second interview with Jonathan Van-Tam. It can't be comfortable for a journalist being seen to have been taken to the cleaners, so it would have been easier not to have a repeat interview. Easier, but less informative for the public.
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BREAKING: Heathrow announces closure of its second runway.0
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I thought that was CorbynMalmesbury said:
Main claim to fame - the man who nearly destroyed the Labour party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Former New Labour spin doctor. Married to TV host Kate Garraway:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Forgive my question but who is Derek Draperegg said:
Anyway, the sad and very worrying news coming through is Derek Draper is very ill on a ventilator 😦CarlottaVance said:
And a week later if you've died outside a hospital the ONS will include you in the stats.egg said:
And what’s current death total in U.K. you haven’t a clue. You have to die in a hospital to be counted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Draper0 -
Interesting - can you post a screen shot? Would be very interesting if so!maaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
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Page 4ABZ said:
Interesting - can you post a screen shot? Would be very interesting if so!maaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/878046/COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_-_03_04_2020.pdf0 -
I expect covid 19 has ended the construction of the third runwayIanB2 said:BREAKING: Heathrow announces closure of its second runway.
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I see only a future for John Lewis in the department store wars...squareroot2 said:0 -
Most ships have extensive medical facilities on board often with doctors who are specialists at dealing with virus infections. Despite all the scare stories doing the rounds I suspect the death rate on the cruise ships is little different from the 'normal' rate on a long cruise. I have already booked for next year.Luckyguy1983 said:
I have no idea whether it's significantly safer, I highly doubt it, that wasn't my point. The people saying 'cruising will die' are probably people that don't cruise and didn't really see the point anyway. Those who do, will lap up the bargains.RobD said:
I'd be interested to see the evidence that a cruise ship is significantly safer than a plane in terms of infections. We always hear stories about virus outbreaks on ships, but never as the result of plane travel.Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html
But surely the reason you hear about outbreaks on ships is because they are large and slow moving, so lots of people have time to develop symptoms and get very sick. Flights are of short duration and people disperse immediately.0 -
Who are the media rooting for?CarlottaVance said:0 -
In the short term, yes. But Shell has been hugely marked down (the dividend, which it has funds to protect, is now over 11%), oil will be at the front end of the recovery when it comes, and Shell is ahead of its competitors on renewables and on looking toward the changes in the industry coming down the line. DYOR of course. There may be a better time to buy than now.MaxPB said:
That was based on Trump speaking for an alleged Saudi/Russian deal being on the table to help US shale producers not have negative prices. I'm reserving judgement until an actual deal looks to be coming.IanB2 said:
Enjoy while it lasts, soon be on the way up if the crude price is any judgeydoethur said:
When was it last that low? 2007? A long time ago, anyway!Alanbrooke said:just paid 96.7 a litre for petrol
it seemed weird watching the litres rise faster than the pounds
For those taking a long view on shares, Royal Dutch Shell is worth a look.0 -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52151662IanB2 said:BREAKING: Heathrow announces closure of its second runway.
Heathrow Airport sheltering '200 homeless people'0 -
It’s never too late to startBig_G_NorthWales said:
Shows I did not pay too much attention to politics in those days, as I had a business to runydoethur said:
He was the ultimate metrosexual Blairite:Stocky said:
Big G! He was New Labour SPAD hard manBig_G_NorthWales said:
Forgive my question but who is Derek Draperegg said:
Anyway, the sad and very worrying news coming through is Derek Draper is very ill on a ventilator 😦CarlottaVance said:
And a week later if you've died outside a hospital the ONS will include you in the stats.egg said:
And what’s current death total in U.K. you haven’t a clue. You have to die in a hospital to be counted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
https://www.gregpalast.com/lobbygate-there-are-17-people-that-count-to-say-that-i-am-intimate-with-every-one-of-them-is-the-understatement-of-the-century/
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Yep - and I'm sure I mentioned the closure of the second runway a fortnight ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I expect covid 19 has ended the construction of the third runwayIanB2 said:BREAKING: Heathrow announces closure of its second runway.
The mothballing of Terminals 3 and 4 has been cancelled though some airlines (and 1 in particular) wasn't happy about the idea.0 -
I hope she sues them for a lot of money.TheScreamingEagles said:That York train station 'conviction' gets worse.
A woman who was wrongly convicted of loitering under new coronavirus laws was tried and punished in her absence after not speaking or making a sound for three days.
The Times revealed on Thursday how Marie Dinou, 41, had been prosecuted and fined under the wrong legislation after she was arrested by British Transport Police (BTP) at Newcastle Central station on Saturday morning......
...BTP, which has apologised for the error, had initially said that she was detained and charged because she “refused to speak” to officers after being seen “loitering between platforms”.
However, it has since emerged that Ms Dinou did not speak to officers who took her to the cells for two nights, failed to confirm her identity or enter a plea at court as she remained silent, and did not speak to or instruct a duty solicitor assigned to represent her for the hearing.
When concerns were raised in court as to whether she was mute, had mental health issues or faced a language barrier, these were dismissed by District Judge Sarah-Jane Griffiths, who concluded that she was being “obstructive” despite no apparent attempt to determine her health condition or her fitness to plead having been made.
As Ms Dinou remained silent in the dock, the judge ordered her to be taken back to the cells and she proceeded to prove the case, despite the fact that the charges had never been put to the defendant and she had not been served with papers.
The judge said that she had decided that there was no language barrier because Ms Dinou, from York, had written the word “Aberdeen” on a piece of paper — her only interaction in 72 hours.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/woman-wrongly-convicted-under-new-coronavirus-law-did-not-speak-a-single-word-to-police-or-in-court-0kjq9zrhj0 -
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?0 -
Extensive is over-stating things. I expect the industry will have to clean up its act in several ways before it is trusted to resume, and cruising will probably be the very last economic activity to restart.slade said:
Most ships have extensive medical facilities on board often with doctors who are specialists at dealing with virus infections. Despite all the scare stories doing the rounds I suspect the death rate on the cruise ships is little different from the 'normal' rate on a long cruise. I have already booked for next year.Luckyguy1983 said:
I have no idea whether it's significantly safer, I highly doubt it, that wasn't my point. The people saying 'cruising will die' are probably people that don't cruise and didn't really see the point anyway. Those who do, will lap up the bargains.RobD said:
I'd be interested to see the evidence that a cruise ship is significantly safer than a plane in terms of infections. We always hear stories about virus outbreaks on ships, but never as the result of plane travel.Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html
But surely the reason you hear about outbreaks on ships is because they are large and slow moving, so lots of people have time to develop symptoms and get very sick. Flights are of short duration and people disperse immediately.0 -
Indeed and I'm sure as Big_G will confirm, all the cruise companies are strict with hand sanitiser before entering dining and other communal areas. Before all this, the nightmare was norovirus which could go through a ship (so to speak) in no time.slade said:
Most ships have extensive medical facilities on board often with doctors who are specialists at dealing with virus infections. Despite all the scare stories doing the rounds I suspect the death rate on the cruise ships is little different from the 'normal' rate on a long cruise. I have already booked for next year.
All ships are, as you say, medically well equipped and all have morgues. I have to say death on cruises is not uncommon - we've been on two or three where an individual has passed away. It is all done very discretely but when you see a hearse on arrival at a port you know..
Mrs Stodge and I have spoken and we would be happy to go back on cruises once the current emergency is over. It remains to be seen what kind of cruise industry emerges from all this - will the long duration journeys be popular if people think they will end up "trapped" on board just like those poor individuals on the Zaandam. I should also add it's very hard for the crew as well.0 -
Without wishing to speak ill of a man in such as situation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought that was CorbynMalmesbury said:
Main claim to fame - the man who nearly destroyed the Labour party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Former New Labour spin doctor. Married to TV host Kate Garraway:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Forgive my question but who is Derek Draperegg said:
Anyway, the sad and very worrying news coming through is Derek Draper is very ill on a ventilator 😦CarlottaVance said:
And a week later if you've died outside a hospital the ONS will include you in the stats.egg said:
And what’s current death total in U.K. you haven’t a clue. You have to die in a hospital to be counted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Draper
He and Damian McBride had the genius idea of making up fake and libellous stories about the opposition. And no, not a few jokes - this was really nasty, nasty stuff. And publishing the same on a website. This was hatched and executed on their computers at No. 10, while sitting in the same office as the Prime Minister.
To be fair to Gordon Brown - he almost certainly didn't know. If nothing else, his family history would ensure that he wouldn't have gone along with one of the stories they were inventing.
In UK law, you can get it in the neck for reporting the truth about people. The law for making up deliberate lies is harsher yet.
If they had gone ahead with their scheme, the Labour Party (and probably the GMB) would have been defending multiple libel cases, where the libels would have come from people sitting in No. 10, close personal associates of the Prime Minister..... The damages would have been epic. In the context of political party finances - a wipe out.0 -
"The Peston vs JVT rematch"/
A headless chicken vs Tyson Fury, you mean. About time someone stopped humouring Mr Thicko. Get rid of the journalists, let the general public ask the experts directly.
It sounds like the WHO are not going to change their guidance on face masks. Good. I was beginning to worry about them. They're decoration if you like that sort of thing, but that's all.0 -
Reminds me of the anecdote about hospitals in the USSR being targeted for reducing the death rate of patients in each hospital, which one achieved by wheeling the bed of anyone who looked likely to expire out into the street.CarlottaVance said:
And a week later if you've died outside a hospital the ONS will include you in the stats.egg said:
And what’s current death total in U.K. you haven’t a clue. You have to die in a hospital to be counted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.0 -
It has always had large numbers of rough sleepers, owing to its "24 hour" appeal.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52151662IanB2 said:BREAKING: Heathrow announces closure of its second runway.
Heathrow Airport sheltering '200 homeless people'1 -
That's the way the cookie crumblesSandyRentool said:Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!0 -
They are going to have to do a lot better than putting sanitiser outside the dining room and letting many diners walk past without using it.stodge said:
Indeed and I'm sure as Big_G will confirm, all the cruise companies are strict with hand sanitiser before entering dining and other communal areas. Before all this, the nightmare was norovirus which could go through a ship (so to speak) in no time.slade said:
Most ships have extensive medical facilities on board often with doctors who are specialists at dealing with virus infections. Despite all the scare stories doing the rounds I suspect the death rate on the cruise ships is little different from the 'normal' rate on a long cruise. I have already booked for next year.
All ships are, as you say, medically well equipped and all have morgues. I have to say death on cruises is not uncommon - we've been on two or three where an individual has passed away. It is all done very discretely but when you see a hearse on arrival at a port you know..
Mrs Stodge and I have spoken and we would be happy to go back on cruises once the current emergency is over. It remains to be seen what kind of cruise industry emerges from all this - will the long duration journeys be popular if people think they will end up "trapped" on board just like those poor individuals on the Zaandam. I should also add it's very hard for the crew as well.
Incidentally, the QM2 has been delayed on its voyage back from a South Africa as it had to turn back last night for a 58-year old Brit to be airlifted off in heavy seas due to a non-virus related incident; heart attack, at a guess.0 -
I wouldn't be surprised. The client on project im currently working on had started banning non critical business travel in the 1st week of march and telling people to start wfh (and be prepared to do that for a sustained period) from the week after that.ABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
From what i was hearing they weren't the only companies already moving to that.0 -
Here's the link from the Tagesspiegel a reasonable quality Berlin NewspaperCharles said:
Is there any more detail? Pretty shocking if true as reportedwilliamglenn said:
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/usa-fangen-200-000-schutzmasken-ab-berlins-innensenator-spricht-von-moderner-piraterie/25712976.html
And here's a very quick cut and paste into DeepL translator (first part as the word count is too long)
The Tagesspiegel
The TagesspiegelWissenUSA intercepts 200,000 protective masks: Berlin's Interior Senator speaks of "modern piracy"
USA intercept 200,000 protective masks from Berlin's Senator of the Interior speaks of "modern piracy
Protective equipment for Berlin police officers ordered because of the corona virus was diverted from China to the USA. The masks had been "confiscated" in Bangkok. Alexander Fröhlich Julius Betschka
Protective equipment is loaded at an airport.
Protective equipment is loaded at an airport.photo: dpa/Helmut Fohringer
A shipment of protective equipment ordered by the State of Berlin in China because of the coronavirus is said to have been intercepted by the USA and diverted to the United States. This was reported to the Tagesspiegel from Berlin security circles.
Berlin had ordered respirators with protection classes FFP2 and FFP3 from the manufacturer, which protect emergency and nursing personnel from infection with the coronavirus. The order is for a delivery of 200,000 protective masks.
Berlin's Interior Senator Andreas Geisel (SPD) confirmed this afternoon that the masks had been "confiscated" in Bangkok and had therefore not reached their actual destination - Berlin. "We regard this as an act of modern piracy. This is no way to deal with transatlantic partners," said the Interior Senator.
Even in times of global crisis, "no Wild West methods" should prevail, Geisel said: "I call on the German government to press the USA to comply with international rules.
Berlin's Governing Mayor Michael Müller (SPD) also said: "The actions of the US President are anything but solidarity and responsibility", Müller said. "It is inhuman and unacceptable."
Masks were manufactured by a US company in China
According to Tagesspiegel information, the masks were ordered by the Berlin police from the manufacturer 3M. The ordered masks were produced in a 3M plant of the US company in China. At the airport in Bangkok, the goods were to be reloaded and flown to Germany by air freight. Instead, the delivery was brought directly from Bangkok to the USA.
On Friday morning, according to Tagesspiegel information, the police's crisis team also dealt with the matter. However, the authorities only officially confirmed that an "expected delivery failed to arrive".
Although the Berlin authorities assure that the protective equipment is still sufficient. But the fire brigade had to retrieve expired respirators from the warehouse. The edition of the masks and disinfectants is strictly limited.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)0 -
Bloody hell that's hard.MarqueeMark said:Just heard a friend has been to four funerals this week, including his 34 year old best mate who got the virus - but had an undiagnosed underlying kidney problem and was dead in 48 hours. He can't get spiritual help either - his rabbi was one of the four. As was his employer.
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When are you ramping up to next day delivery by courier?MarqueeMark said:
Sorry. A loganberry bakewell tart is top trumps.Stocky said:
Your dissing of carrot cake was uncalled for, man. The king of cakes, unless you count a bakewell tart as a cake, in which case it`s a score-draw.SandyRentool said:Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!0 -
A major department store in Germany (Karstadt / Galaria Kaufhof) filed yesterday for something, the journalist explained it is an official "were close to going insolvent" declaration.Malmesbury said:
I see only a future for John Lewis in the department store wars...squareroot2 said:0 -
Grim.MarqueeMark said:
He was the sole attendee. He was in charge of Zooming the proceedings for the family. Spouses/parents were deemed too old and at too much risk to attend.SouthamObserver said:
Horrible for your friend, but I'm very surprised he was allowed to attend them. It was immediate family only for my Mother-in-Law.MarqueeMark said:Just heard a friend has been to four funerals this week, including his 34 year old best mate who got the virus - but had an undiagnosed underlying kidney problem and was dead in 48 hours. He can't get spiritual help either - his rabbi was one of the four. As was his employer.
This is a tragedy of genuinely Biblical proportions.
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Really? It would save that much time? Wow. So on the face of it that would seem less ethically impossible than the sort of thing I was postulating.Nigelb said:One option I posted a couple of days back (not my idea) was the rather risky one of trialling the most promising vaccines on volunteers who are then deliberately dosed with measured amounts of the coronavirus.
Depending upon how grim the projections look in a month or two's time, that might start to seem an attractive option.
It would save at least six months on getting an effective vaccine deployed; possibly a full year.0 -
It's my experience they are very strict on its use for the first two or three days after which there was a degree of relaxation once it was established no one had brought norovirus on board inadvertently.IanB2 said:
They are going to have to do a lot better than putting sanitiser outside the dining room and letting many diners walk past without using it.
Incidentally, the QM2 has been delayed on its voyage back from a South Africa as it had to turn back last night for a 58-year old Brit to be airlifted off in heavy seas due to a non-virus related incident; heart attack, at a guess.
I agree the immediate future is going to be very different with mandatory and regular use of hand sanitiser. The problem is going to be given the long period between infection and showing symptoms and I presume it's also the case someone who has contracted the virus but is themselves asymptomatic can pass the infection to others who will develop full symptoms.
Perhaps in time the cruise companies will be able to test passengers before they are allowed to embark and will avoid any areas where coronavirus is still present.
I'm also wondering if non-stop sailings will gain popularity - once on board, no stops so no risk of infection with strong on-board hygiene. A trip up the fjords and back or down to the Canaries and back without a stop - relaxation, good food, on board activities and decent weather and relatively risk free.
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Long ago a friend was working the former Soviet Union to try value oil companies there. He even learnt the Communist era accounting system to try and understand it. His main conclusion - that it would have been more productive for the SU to cap the wells and walk away. They had been losing money on every barrel pumped for decades.IanB2 said:
Reminds me of the anecdote about hospitals in the USSR being targeted for reducing the death rate of patients in each hospital, which one achieved by wheeling the bed of anyone who looked likely to expire out into the street.CarlottaVance said:
And a week later if you've died outside a hospital the ONS will include you in the stats.egg said:
And what’s current death total in U.K. you haven’t a clue. You have to die in a hospital to be counted.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
Anyway, while talking to a doctor he had a question about the apparently plummeting birth rate. At little digging at the local hospital later (nothing else to do, and he was very bored) and he found the answer.
There were (and are) a large number of abortions in the former Soviet Union.
Births were a strategic matter in a country with a mass conscription army and an obsession with recovering from WWII.
So to boost the targets, the local party types had declared the numbers for babies to be the numbers *before* quite a lot of late term abortions.
When the system fell down, no one kept on faking the numbers....0 -
Same as me. Just hard to know whether this is unusual or other countries were doing the same thing.Denspark said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The client on project im currently working on had started banning non critical business travel in the 1st week of march and telling people to start wfh (and be prepared to do that for a sustained period) from the week after that.ABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
From what i was hearing they weren't the only companies already moving to that.0 -
Most people in the city were spending that week getting the WFH rigs up to date...ABZ said:
Same as me. Just hard to know whether this is unusual or other countries were doing the same thing.Denspark said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The client on project im currently working on had started banning non critical business travel in the 1st week of march and telling people to start wfh (and be prepared to do that for a sustained period) from the week after that.ABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
From what i was hearing they weren't the only companies already moving to that.0 -
I noticed thatABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?0 -
This is dynamite. Trump is an absolute disgrace and clearly cannot be trusted in any way, shape or form.
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1246076084468084737/photo/10 -
Macron tried exactly the same thing.SouthamObserver said:This is dynamite. Trump is an absolute disgrace and clearly cannot be trusted in any way, shape or form.
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1246076084468084737/photo/10 -
Yes, it would.kinabalu said:
Really? It would save that much time? Wow. So on the face of it that would seem less ethically impossible than the sort of thing I was postulating.Nigelb said:One option I posted a couple of days back (not my idea) was the rather risky one of trialling the most promising vaccines on volunteers who are then deliberately dosed with measured amounts of the coronavirus.
Depending upon how grim the projections look in a month or two's time, that might start to seem an attractive option.
It would save at least six months on getting an effective vaccine deployed; possibly a full year.
This is the paper:
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=11 -
I watched that last night and could not see the massive problem. Pesto was corrected by an interviewee on something he was not fully grasping. What's the big deal?AlastairMeeks said:Good on Robert Peston setting up a second interview with Jonathan Van-Tam. It can't be comfortable for a journalist being seen to have been taken to the cleaners, so it would have been easier not to have a repeat interview. Easier, but less informative for the public.
0 -
Here in the US it's becoming increasingly obvious from the tone of the spokespeople for the government that the recommendation to wear face masks outdoors is coming in the next day or so.0
-
I’d expect quite a lot of changes, for example, better medical facilities and staffing on board, enhanced staff training, more rigorous on board sanitisation, filtering the air conditioning as on many airlines, enhanced passenger screening on boarding (temperature monitors replacing the current tick box “no I am not ill” forms), enhanced passenger screening on booking, restrictions on taking passengers who are already seriously ill, etc.stodge said:
It's my experience they are very strict on its use for the first two or three days after which there was a degree of relaxation once it was established no one had brought norovirus on board inadvertently.IanB2 said:
They are going to have to do a lot better than putting sanitiser outside the dining room and letting many diners walk past without using it.
Incidentally, the QM2 has been delayed on its voyage back from a South Africa as it had to turn back last night for a 58-year old Brit to be airlifted off in heavy seas due to a non-virus related incident; heart attack, at a guess.
I agree the immediate future is going to be very different with mandatory and regular use of hand sanitiser. The problem is going to be given the long period between infection and showing symptoms and I presume it's also the case someone who has contracted the virus but is themselves asymptomatic can pass the infection to others who will develop full symptoms.
Perhaps in time the cruise companies will be able to test passengers before they are allowed to embark and will avoid any areas where coronavirus is still present.
I'm also wondering if non-stop sailings will gain popularity - once on board, no stops so no risk of infection with strong on-board hygiene. A trip up the fjords and back or down to the Canaries and back without a stop - relaxation, good food, on board activities and decent weather and relatively risk free.0 -
Given the admissions 'appear' to have peaked, or at least stalled, across several regions they must now have a very good idea what peak deaths day is given the stats they'll already have on average admission to death time, and indeed peak bed requirements. Reasons to be hopeful even if they're keeping a lid on it until the sun buggers off.Denspark said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The client on project im currently working on had started banning non critical business travel in the 1st week of march and telling people to start wfh (and be prepared to do that for a sustained period) from the week after that.ABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
From what i was hearing they weren't the only companies already moving to that.0 -
I think the charts from the last three days have been seriously misleading. Go back to March 31st:ABZ said:<
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877187/Comms_slides_for_No_10_31st_of_March.pdf
The base line for the transport chart is 16th March yet now it's been shifted back to the start of the month.
This is statistical distortion and hides the fact transport usage only started to decline seriously last week. The notion it was falling from earlier in March isn't supported.
There are of course lies, damn lies and statistics. I hope this isn't a sign the Government is resorting to misinformation to support its argument.
0 -
I don't think the government have even spoken about this! But, to be honest, I find the new chart more informative. The amount of travel in the first 10 days of March is like a 'normal' baseline; there is a substantial reduction in the middle 10 days of March and a further reduction following the lockdown.stodge said:
I think the charts from the last three days have been seriously misleading. Go back to March 31st:ABZ said:<
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877187/Comms_slides_for_No_10_31st_of_March.pdf
The base line for the transport chart is 16th March yet now it's been shifted back to the start of the month.
This is statistical distortion and hides the fact transport usage only started to decline seriously last week. The notion it was falling from earlier in March isn't supported.
There are of course lies, damn lies and statistics. I hope this isn't a sign the Government is resorting to misinformation to support its argument.
Obviously if you change the baseline data to later the percentages are all relative to that, but I don't find this new plot misleading - you're actually just plotting more data and, arguably it's more informative.0 -
I'm sure you're right on all of this. I'd point out air circulation is aided by the fact the ship is on the open sea though the upper decks always do better than the lower and the balcony and outside cabins better than the inside.IanB2 said:
I’d expect quite a lot of changes, for example, better medical facilities and staffing on board, enhanced staff training, more rigorous on board sanitisation, filtering the air conditioning as on many airlines, enhanced passenger screening on boarding (temperature monitors replacing the current tick box “no I am not ill” forms), enhanced passenger screening on booking, restrictions on taking passengers who are already seriously ill, etc.
One of the attractions of cruising is getting on board is much easier than getting on a plane but those days are over as you say.
0 -
Anyway whose heard of the Stockport Spider-Man raising money by for NHS charities by running dressed as Spider-Man and giving the kids at home a lift?0
-
The hot weather on Sunday and next week in London could be a fault line in the social distancing and quarantining. Imagine living high up in one of the Tower Blocks with a couple of kids.0
-
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.0 -
I've heard people saying that they had a cold recently but didn't declare it, as no-one wants the hassle and risk. The current arrangements are a joke. In particular, cruising seems to be the last form of travel still offered to people who, sad though it is, are objectively too ill to leave home.stodge said:
I'm sure you're right on all of this. I'd point out air circulation is aided by the fact the ship is on the open sea though the upper decks always do better than the lower and the balcony and outside cabins better than the inside.IanB2 said:
I’d expect quite a lot of changes, for example, better medical facilities and staffing on board, enhanced staff training, more rigorous on board sanitisation, filtering the air conditioning as on many airlines, enhanced passenger screening on boarding (temperature monitors replacing the current tick box “no I am not ill” forms), enhanced passenger screening on booking, restrictions on taking passengers who are already seriously ill, etc.
One of the attractions of cruising is getting on board is much easier than getting on a plane but those days are over as you say.0 -
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.0 -
sort of - this is from the cdc website -rpjs said:
I thought the CDC had already said this?Tim_B said:Here in the US it's becoming increasingly obvious from the tone of the spokespeople for the government that the recommendation to wear face masks outdoors is coming in the next day or so.
Wear a facemask if you are sick
If you are sick: You should wear a facemask when you are around other people (e.g., sharing a room or vehicle) and before you enter a healthcare provider’s office. If you are not able to wear a facemask (for example, because it causes trouble breathing), then you should do your best to cover your coughs and sneezes, and people who are caring for you should wear a facemask if they enter your room. Learn what to do if you are sick.
If you are NOT sick: You do not need to wear a facemask unless you are caring for someone who is sick (and they are not able to wear a facemask). Facemasks may be in short supply and they should be saved for caregivers.0 -
And even they haven't been doing brilliantly recently. One wonders if this whole situation constitutes an opportunity for the new CEO to review the profitability of the stores and decline to re-open some of the poorer performing outlets?Malmesbury said:
I see only a future for John Lewis in the department store wars...squareroot2 said:0 -
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.0 -
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.0 -
Which is fine, provided that you're willing to risk being trapped on a plague ship for months the moment that one of the other passengers coughs. Which an awful lot of people won't be.IanB2 said:
I've heard people saying that they had a cold recently but didn't declare it, as no-one wants the hassle and risk. The current arrangements are a joke. In particular, cruising seems to be the last form of travel still offered to people who, sad though it is, are objectively too ill to leave home.stodge said:
I'm sure you're right on all of this. I'd point out air circulation is aided by the fact the ship is on the open sea though the upper decks always do better than the lower and the balcony and outside cabins better than the inside.IanB2 said:
I’d expect quite a lot of changes, for example, better medical facilities and staffing on board, enhanced staff training, more rigorous on board sanitisation, filtering the air conditioning as on many airlines, enhanced passenger screening on boarding (temperature monitors replacing the current tick box “no I am not ill” forms), enhanced passenger screening on booking, restrictions on taking passengers who are already seriously ill, etc.
One of the attractions of cruising is getting on board is much easier than getting on a plane but those days are over as you say.
Covid has been a first order PR catastrophe for the cruise lines. You have to wonder how many of them will survive this episode.0 -
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html0 -
felix said:
Bizarre story:
FRANCE FORCED TO RETURN FACE MASKS IT CONFISCATED FROM SPAIN A FEW WEEKS AGO AFTER PRESSURE FROM THE SWEDISH GOVERNMENT
FRANCE has been forced to return the face masks they confiscated from Spain a few weeks ago.
An order of four millions face masks was scheduled to arrive from the Swedish company Molnlycke – based in Lyon – to Spain.
However, on March 5 the French Government confiscated the masks.
Two days earlier, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, had signed a decree that allows the Government to requisition all necessary products in the fight against the pandemic.
After 15 days of intense pressure from the Swedish Government, France was forced to release the masks to both Spain and Italy which were the original destinations.
They only allowed two million masks though, with the rest remaining in France either to be used there or for re-exporting.
Following the incident, the Swedish company now prevents its goods from circulating in France and will move its logistics to Belgium and will only be distributed from there.
The news was exposed by the French magazine L’Express.
Source: Olive Press
So much for the much hyped EU solidarity.1 -
Yep, both my main clients banned all but critical ravel on 3rd March.Denspark said:
I wouldn't be surprised. The client on project im currently working on had started banning non critical business travel in the 1st week of march and telling people to start wfh (and be prepared to do that for a sustained period) from the week after that.ABZ said:
Thanks - that's very helpful. It might not start declining yet, but perhaps it will now level off for a few days; if there is a general decline that would be very positive news but not consistent with what we've seen in other countries.Denspark said:
the slides and datasets for the conferences are atmaaarsh said:
It was in the press conference - he flicked over it very quickly as they're obviously trying to avoid people relaxing in the sun on Sunday, but I rewound and paused - London down and Midlands down very markedly, with only 1 of the other regions looking upSunil_Prasannan said:
Do you have a link? Ta.maaarsh said:So the hospital admissions chart is now showing decline in numbers for London and several other regions - hopefully that continues!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-3-april-2020
Having said that, I've always been struck by the transport usage chart - the week before we locked down (so from 16 March) there was already a huge decline in use of public transport. I wonder if this was seen in other countries as well? Or did they only display this after the formal lockdown? Perhaps some of the posters based in Germany or Spain can comment?
From what i was hearing they weren't the only companies already moving to that.0 -
Thanks - will read it.Nigelb said:Yes, it would.
This is the paper:
https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216?searchresult=1
Am in the thick of the Alastair Campbell diaries atm and sorely in need of a break from him.0 -
One option I posted a couple of days back (not my idea) was the rather risky one of trialling the most promising vaccines on volunteers who are then deliberately dosed with measured amounts of the coronavirus.
Depending upon how grim the projections look in a month or two's time, that might start to seem an attractive option.
It would save at least six months on getting an effective vaccine deployed; possibly a full year.
Can we pass legislation such that the various scammers (phone, email, etc) who are trying to con people at the moment are deemed to have volunteered for such trials?2 -
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
It's more than that - the graph starting with 100% on March 18th ends up in the same place as the graph showing 100% on March 5th. I am therefore to believe national rail travel fell 40% from March 5th to March 18th and tube travel fell 60% in the same period.ABZ said:
I don't think the government have even spoken about this! But, to be honest, I find the new chart more informative. The amount of travel in the first 10 days of March is like a 'normal' baseline; there is a substantial reduction in the middle 10 days of March and a further reduction following the lockdown.
Obviously if you change the baseline data to later the percentages are all relative to that, but I don't find this new plot misleading - you're actually just plotting more data and, arguably it's more informative.
I don't believe it - pure and simple.
If it is true, then the argument the lock down made the difference falls because the decline was in evidence well before the lock down was implemented.
We have the supporting datasets which tell us the sum total of bugger all.0 -
I disagree. I like it. Makes you think in an Irish potato famine situation, there’s enough food in the country to help the starving but it’s being shipped overseas, this modern world would stop it.johnoundle said:felix said:Bizarre story:
FRANCE FORCED TO RETURN FACE MASKS IT CONFISCATED FROM SPAIN A FEW WEEKS AGO AFTER PRESSURE FROM THE SWEDISH GOVERNMENT
FRANCE has been forced to return the face masks they confiscated from Spain a few weeks ago.
An order of four millions face masks was scheduled to arrive from the Swedish company Molnlycke – based in Lyon – to Spain.
However, on March 5 the French Government confiscated the masks.
Two days earlier, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, had signed a decree that allows the Government to requisition all necessary products in the fight against the pandemic.
After 15 days of intense pressure from the Swedish Government, France was forced to release the masks to both Spain and Italy which were the original destinations.
They only allowed two million masks though, with the rest remaining in France either to be used there or for re-exporting.
Following the incident, the Swedish company now prevents its goods from circulating in France and will move its logistics to Belgium and will only be distributed from there.
The news was exposed by the French magazine L’Express.
Source: Olive Press
So much for the much hyped EU solidarity.0 -
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.0 -
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.0 -
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
0
-
"Fact"?RobD said:
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.0 -
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?0 -
Do you have evidence that the data are correct? Even South Korea which has probably the best regime in the world for dealing with this had 90 new cases today, which would correspond to 1,800 in China on a per capita basis. They reported 31. It's just not credible.Chris said:
"Fact"?RobD said:
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.1 -
The NY times is reporting that they have evidence of this. I trust that the reporting is accurate.Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?0 -
Don't be silly. The evidence from funeral urn counts plus incinerators plus reports on the ground, AND the discrepancy between the alleged death count there and in Spain, Italy and indeed everywhere else, put it beyond any rational dispute that the total deaths have been fraudulently understated by China by a factor of at least x10.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
But the "manipulation" cited is low scale, indeed the article cites not including asymptomatic patients. Here we do not test them! Neither do we report out of hospital deaths either.RobD said:
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.
I can see no evidence that Chinese figures are less accurate or manipulated than our own, or any other countries.0 -
Quote the part where the NY Times says it has evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
The NY times is reporting that they have evidence of this. I trust that the reporting is accurate.Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?0 -
Apart from your own prejudices, do you have any evidence to support that?RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
It is as if the government spent 2 weeks building their warnings up to the eventual lockdown, and the public broadly responded.stodge said:
It's more than that - the graph starting with 100% on March 18th ends up in the same place as the graph showing 100% on March 5th. I am therefore to believe national rail travel fell 40% from March 5th to March 18th and tube travel fell 60% in the same period.ABZ said:
I don't think the government have even spoken about this! But, to be honest, I find the new chart more informative. The amount of travel in the first 10 days of March is like a 'normal' baseline; there is a substantial reduction in the middle 10 days of March and a further reduction following the lockdown.
Obviously if you change the baseline data to later the percentages are all relative to that, but I don't find this new plot misleading - you're actually just plotting more data and, arguably it's more informative.
I don't believe it - pure and simple.
If it is true, then the argument the lock down made the difference falls because the decline was in evidence well before the lock down was implemented.
We have the supporting datasets which tell us the sum total of bugger all.
Don't you think?0 -
But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.Chris said:
Quote the part where the NY Times says it has evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
The NY times is reporting that they have evidence of this. I trust that the reporting is accurate.Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?0 -
Are you saying this is the worst crime the Chinese have ever committed, they haven’t done anything worse before during after the last three Tory prime ministers and chancellors climbed into bed with them?RobD said:
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwVJTHtqs9Y0 -
The funeral urn count data didn't seem to allow for any non covid related deaths, or at least in the bit that I saw. Do you have a link where these were included?IshmaelZ said:
Don't be silly. The evidence from funeral urn counts plus incinerators plus reports on the ground, AND the discrepancy between the alleged death count there and in Spain, Italy and indeed everywhere else, put it beyond any rational dispute that the total deaths have been fraudulently understated by China by a factor of at least x10.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
Nor sure if he's big or a G but certainly seems to be in North Wales.
https://twitter.com/TropicalGeology/status/1245792183199858691?s=200 -
"Sweden determined it has smarter strategy for dealing with COVID-19
Some scientists back the government in not bringing in a lockdown but others fear the nation is blindly heading for a cliff edge."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sweden-determined-it-has-smarter-strategy-for-dealing-with-covid-19-119681010 -
Apologies - blockquote messed up.Andy_Cooke said:
One option I posted a couple of days back (not my idea) was the rather risky one of trialling the most promising vaccines on volunteers who are then deliberately dosed with measured amounts of the coronavirus.
Depending upon how grim the projections look in a month or two's time, that might start to seem an attractive option.
It would save at least six months on getting an effective vaccine deployed; possibly a full year.
Can we pass legislation such that the various scammers (phone, email, etc) who are trying to con people at the moment are deemed to have volunteered for such trials?
The top bit (up to “... a full year”) was posted by Nigelb.
0 -
The exclusion of asymptomatic cases in China has been known for about two months. It was part of the guidelines published by the Chinese authorities. As you say, it's no more misrepresentation than acknowledged omissions in data from other countries.Foxy said:
But the "manipulation" cited is low scale, indeed the article cites not including asymptomatic patients. Here we do not test them! Neither do we report out of hospital deaths either.RobD said:
Where the numbers were manipulated isn't important. Just the fact they were manipulated.Foxy said:
That article suggests possibly 5000 dead in Wuhan, so not that much higher than the official count:RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
"numbers predates recent reporting in the Chinese news media that the death count in Wuhan could be 5,000 or more, double the official number. "
It also is sceptical that any figures were manipulated centrally, but by local functionaries.
I can see no evidence that Chinese figures are less accurate or manipulated than our own, or any other countries.0 -
Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?
The Chinese government already has form with cover ups,the first case of SARS was in November 2002 but they failed to inform the WTO until February 2003.
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I can think of someone who's critcised the NYT's lack of credibility for several years.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.0 -
That's obviously just coming from their unnamed sources. There's no indication whatsoever in what you quoted that the NY Times has independent evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.Chris said:
Quote the part where the NY Times says it has evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
The NY times is reporting that they have evidence of this. I trust that the reporting is accurate.Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?
Is this really the sole basis of your conviction that the Chinese are lying about their figures?0 -
Those sailors need a bit more social distancing...CarlottaVance said:This will not help Trump
https://twitter.com/SDonziger/status/1246127216456499209?s=200 -
Is that it?johnoundle said:Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?
The Chinese government already has form with cover ups,the first case of SARS was in November 2002 but they failed to inform the WTO until February 2003.0 -
Yeah, the sources were current and former intelligence officials. I'm not sure complete transparency should be expected.Chris said:
That's obviously just coming from their unnamed sources. There's no indication whatsoever in what you quoted that the NY Times has independent evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
But American intelligence agencies have concluded that the Chinese government itself does not know the extent of the virus and is as blind as the rest of the world. Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.Chris said:
Quote the part where the NY Times says it has evidence to support the allegations.RobD said:
The NY times is reporting that they have evidence of this. I trust that the reporting is accurate.Chris said:
When I asked for the evidence, you pointed me towards that article. Now it's "just another indication".RobD said:
No, it's just another indication that the true figures are far higher.Chris said:
So - no evidence - but anonymous CIA sources have made allegations, and the allegations have been reported by the New York Times, so you accept it unquestioningly.RobD said:
Do you think the NY Times would run it if they didn't think it was credible? Are there any countries that have stated they continue to have faith in the Chinese numbers?Chris said:
Thanks. Allegations sourced to "current and former intelligence officials."RobD said:
Yeah, that was discussed in the article.Chris said:
Just to clarify, I don't mean wrong in the same way the UK case numbers are wrong - showing only a 20th or a 30th of the true figure.Chris said:
Did the article contain any evidence they are wrong?RobD said:
There was an NY Times article on this yesterday. I don't think anyone believes them, except perhaps for the politburo.Chris said:
Do you have any evidence they are systematically wrong?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Does anyone believe the China death figuresegg said:
Only 3,322 deaths in caught by surprise China as opposed to plenty of notice U.K. Guido.OldKingCole said:
I read that as medieval bureaucrats at first.....rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.
Black Death strikes again.
I mean a deliberate misrepresentation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
But you know of no evidence to support the allegations.
So what is your evidence really?
Is this really the sole basis of your conviction that the Chinese are lying about their figures?
No. As I said, it's another indication that something is strange with their numbers.0 -
On the other hand @eadric has been spotted in Somerset...Theuniondivvie said:Nor sure if he's big or a G but certainly seems to be in North Wales.
//twitter.com/TropicalGeology/status/1245792183199858691?s=20
https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1246070145119739907?s=190 -
This is the beauty of let the science decide. business tells the politicians who they own what they want, politicians wheel out their scientists and then hide behind them. And the party supporting headbangers say, we are letting the science decide, now do your duty and stop asking awkward questionsAndy_JS said:"Sweden determined it has smarter strategy for dealing with COVID-19
Some scientists back the government in not bringing in a lockdown but others fear the nation is blindly heading for a cliff edge."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sweden-determined-it-has-smarter-strategy-for-dealing-with-covid-19-11968101
The deceit exposed more with each passing day.0 -
The chinese figure argument is really quie bizarre. There's being wary of leaping to conclusions simply because we dislike the Chinese regime and it looks suspiciously good, but several people are outright going out to bat for the regime at the merest suggestion there could be issues, outright defensive.1
