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Not sure if this has been posted yet but this is a really terrific article about epidemiology modelling. Don't just look at the title of the piece. It doesn't mean what you think it does.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/dont-believe-the-covid-19-models/ar-BB12836g0 -
Were the circumstances (who ordered, who paid) always the same?Malmesbury said:
And France, Germany, China (to name but a few) have "requisitioned" material passing through their countries...williamglenn said:
It's another irregular verb....0 -
Another case being reported of the US stealing masks, this time in Bangkok, 200000 masks already bought by the Berlin police.0
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Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?0
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Probably not - but what is happening is that each country is using all it's abilities to get such vital supplies.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Were the circumstances (who ordered, who paid) always the same?Malmesbury said:
And France, Germany, China (to name but a few) have "requisitioned" material passing through their countries...williamglenn said:
It's another irregular verb....
Try sending a consignment of masks across *any* country at the moment. Someone in authority will try and grab it.0 -
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.-1 -
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...0 -
It's a good article.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure if this has been posted yet but this is a really terrific article about epidemiology modelling. Don't just look at the title of the piece. It doesn't mean what you think it does.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/dont-believe-the-covid-19-models/ar-BB12836g
I wonder if, early on, the scientists stressed this point to the government:
...the spread of the disease depends on exactly when you stop cases from doubling. Even a few days can make an enormous difference....
It's all very well excusing (as the article does to an extent) the original 'herd immunity' strategy by saying that the original model contained a very large range of possible outcomes, but original policy was very much predicated on an outcome at one end of the range.
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Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
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After you rejected the initial invitation to join the fun, you set it up. It was going in the same direction (reduction of tariffs and quotas) but not as ambitiously as the EU. Took only a couple of years watching from the sidelines to realise that going for the real thing was more promising, so you joined, like the majority of the other Efta members, the rest was later subsumed in the EEA. Rejoinig only Efta but staying out of the EEA is not really possible, technically.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.0 -
That is a very good question.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
What lockdown has done is give us time to learn about the virus, set up testing systems, and plan a strategy.
Governments had to react day by day at the start, and only those who were lucky enough to have pandemic plans in place based on the SARS experience reacted particularly well. (South Korea had the great luck to have run a full scale exercise only a month or so before it all kicked off.)
Now they have several weeks to decide what comes next.
I don't have an easy answer to that question.0 -
Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
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The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the first test in the U.S. designed to detect coronavirus antibodies, https://www.livescience.com/first-coronavirus-antibody-test-approved-us.html.
This test is made by a company called Cellex, and the test has been given an emergency authorization. I wonder if this test is one of the tests that has been studied by the Department of Health in the UK. There are also a lot of other tests that have been developed in the US and China for SARS-COV-2 antibodies, but this is the first one to get official approval.0 -
What happened to the Commission's urgent investigation of the Brexit Party? The one so urgent they had to raid their offices just days before the election.Scott_xP said:0 -
Nope. Those that took us in were never going to be satisfied with EFTA. They always believed in the European project. Thankfully that really stupid error has now been corrected. A loose trading association like EFTA is a very good idea. A political and economic union like the EU is not.matthiasfromhamburg said:
After you rejected the initial invitation to join the fun, you set it up. It was going in the same direction (reduction of tariffs and quotas) but not as ambitiously as the EU. Took only a couple of years watching from the sidelines to realise that going for the real thing was more promising, so you joined, like the majority of the other Efta members, the rest was later subsumed in the EEA. Rejoinig only Efta but staying out of the EEA is not really possible, technically.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.
And rejoining EFTA but staying out of the EEA is perfectly possible. Switzerland does it.1 -
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
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I think right now we need to be a little bit reckless. This makes 2008 look like a minor blip.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Every country around the world will need mountains of magicked up liquidity, no question.DavidL said:
Oh but it is. The problem we have is that even going flat out our furlough scheme is not yet up and running. The scheme for the self employed will not come into force until June. By then tens, possibly over 100 thousand businesses will have already collapsed. Many sole traders will be bankrupt. The time to act is right now, last month would have been better.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said in another comment, that time may well come. But it's not now. Not yet.DavidL said:
They need Coronabonds. They need large scale QE so that there is a guaranteed buyer of their bonds in the same way that the BoE has contrived for our government. The ECB are putting too much emphasis on fiscal policies whilst tying the hands of countries as to the scope of these. This puts Italy in particular, and Spain to a large extent in a very difficult situation. If they try anything like Rishi's policies then the cost of their bonds may rise sharply. Here the BoE is guaranteed to rig the market to make sure that does not happen.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
It remains uncertain whether even Rishi's policies are enough. Countries that can only fire one of two barrels are in for a genuinely terrible time.
But exactly because of the enormous scale it might be important to be a little careful.1 -
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
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Clearly he doesn't, otherwise he wouldn't have made his comment.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
0 -
With >100 painfully negotiated deals over several decades, just to basically replicate the EEA+Schengen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Those that took us in were never going to be satisfied with EFTA. They always believed in the European project. Thankfully that really stupid error has now been corrected. A loose trading association like EFTA is a very good idea. A political and economic union like the EU is not.matthiasfromhamburg said:
After you rejected the initial invitation to join the fun, you set it up. It was going in the same direction (reduction of tariffs and quotas) but not as ambitiously as the EU. Took only a couple of years watching from the sidelines to realise that going for the real thing was more promising, so you joined, like the majority of the other Efta members, the rest was later subsumed in the EEA. Rejoinig only Efta but staying out of the EEA is not really possible, technically.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.
And rejoining EFTA but staying out of the EEA is perfectly possible. Switzerland does it.0 -
Prison hulks for those who violate quarantine?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
A miniature country for Maomenutum members?Foss said:
Prison hulks for those who violate quarantine?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
Yes, a little bit, but not too much.DavidL said:
I think right now we need to be a little bit reckless. This makes 2008 look like a minor blip.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Every country around the world will need mountains of magicked up liquidity, no question.DavidL said:
Oh but it is. The problem we have is that even going flat out our furlough scheme is not yet up and running. The scheme for the self employed will not come into force until June. By then tens, possibly over 100 thousand businesses will have already collapsed. Many sole traders will be bankrupt. The time to act is right now, last month would have been better.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said in another comment, that time may well come. But it's not now. Not yet.DavidL said:
They need Coronabonds. They need large scale QE so that there is a guaranteed buyer of their bonds in the same way that the BoE has contrived for our government. The ECB are putting too much emphasis on fiscal policies whilst tying the hands of countries as to the scope of these. This puts Italy in particular, and Spain to a large extent in a very difficult situation. If they try anything like Rishi's policies then the cost of their bonds may rise sharply. Here the BoE is guaranteed to rig the market to make sure that does not happen.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
It remains uncertain whether even Rishi's policies are enough. Countries that can only fire one of two barrels are in for a genuinely terrible time.
But exactly because of the enormous scale it might be important to be a little careful.0 -
All will be equal, but only some will be equal enough for balconies?Malmesbury said:
A miniature country for Maomenutum members?Foss said:
Prison hulks for those who violate quarantine?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html1 -
Though Sweden does not have a capital city of nine million people with a public transport system that enforces social mixing...rcs1000 said:
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...
0 -
Propellor Island. Revolutionary in name and deed....Foss said:
All will be equal, but only some will be equal enough for balconies?Malmesbury said:
A miniature country for Maomenutum members?Foss said:
Prison hulks for those who violate quarantine?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html
0 -
I thought I red yesterday that covid-19 deaths in Sweden are now rising rapidly.Nigelb said:
Though Sweden does not have a capital city of nine million people with a public transport system that enforces social mixing...rcs1000 said:
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...
0 -
They may well be; we'll see.SouthamObserver said:
I thought I read yesterday that covid-19 deaths in Sweden are now rising rapidly.Nigelb said:
Though Sweden does not have a capital city of nine million people with a public transport system that enforces social mixing...rcs1000 said:
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...
But baseline R(0) for London is going to be very different from that for Sweden, in any event.0 -
‘It's a sh-- sandwich': Republicans rage as Florida becomes a nightmare for Trump
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its-a-sh-sandwich-republicans-rage-as-florida-becomes-a-nightmare-for-trump-1271172
Shoe... shop...shad ?
Joking apart, it is an appalling story. A new unemployment system, designed at great cost, deliberately, to make it harder to register:
...“It’s a sh-- sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott,” said one DeSantis advisor. “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
Republican Party of Florida chairman Joe Gruters was more succinct: “$77 million? Someone should go to jail over that.”
With hundreds of thousands of Floridians out of work, the state’s overwhelmed system is making it nearly impossible for many people to even get in line for benefits.
After a record number of claims were reported Thursday, DeSantis said the state would resort to paper applications, build a mobile app to handle the flood of traffic and deploy hundreds, even thousands, of state workers to provide stopgap help.
Congress last week delivered relief in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package that directs cash to the unemployed. But to get that money into the pockets of Floridians, the state will have to duct-tape the rickety web-based unemployment system to deliver it....0 -
There was some Conservative Party spending on that EU election? I can't say I noticed, but if there was, it was monumentally ineffective.Scott_xP said:0 -
Perhaps that's the investigation... "why?".Richard_Nabavi said:
There was some Conservative Party spending on that EU election? I can't say I noticed, but if there was, it was monumentally ineffective.Scott_xP said:1 -
Biden could be comatose come November, and I still don't see Trump winning Florida.0
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I'm quite amazed at my own double-standards on this. I look at this and I think its unimportant. If Labour were on the hook I'd think it really important.RobD said:
What happened to the Commission's urgent investigation of the Brexit Party? The one so urgent they had to raid their offices just days before the election.Scott_xP said:
Somehow it seems like a baker being accused of making bad bread.
Perhaps this is a similar phenomenon to Labour's wrestling with antisemitism.0 -
They're also predicting a fairly strong hurricane season for this summer. Florida and rest of the Southeastern States could end up a hell of a mess.Nigelb said:‘It's a sh-- sandwich': Republicans rage as Florida becomes a nightmare for Trump
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its-a-sh-sandwich-republicans-rage-as-florida-becomes-a-nightmare-for-trump-1271172
Shoe... shop...shad ?
Joking apart, it is an appalling story. A new unemployment system, designed at great cost, deliberately, to make it harder to register:
...“It’s a sh-- sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott,” said one DeSantis advisor. “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
Republican Party of Florida chairman Joe Gruters was more succinct: “$77 million? Someone should go to jail over that.”
With hundreds of thousands of Floridians out of work, the state’s overwhelmed system is making it nearly impossible for many people to even get in line for benefits.
After a record number of claims were reported Thursday, DeSantis said the state would resort to paper applications, build a mobile app to handle the flood of traffic and deploy hundreds, even thousands, of state workers to provide stopgap help.
Congress last week delivered relief in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package that directs cash to the unemployed. But to get that money into the pockets of Floridians, the state will have to duct-tape the rickety web-based unemployment system to deliver it....0 -
Afternoon all.
I can report that a number of the large engineering consultancies / engineering design houses have implemented temporary pay cuts for all of their employees.
Some also using the furlough scheme.
In lighter news, today's food delivery included a carrot cake.0 -
From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
https://tinyurl.com/rn3n5ev
Premier League players will be asked to take a 30% drop in their wages, via cuts or deferrals or both, in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the clubs agreed at a meeting on Friday.
The move came as the 20 top-flight teams said they would give £125m to the EFL and National League to help their clubs through the crisis and donate £20m to support the NHS, communities, families and vulnerable groups.0 -
Expected.
But, Blimey...
The health secretary Matt Hancock has indicated that the coronavirus outbreak could reach its peak in the UK on Easter Sunday, with around 1,000 deaths each day running up to that date....0 -
Mr. B, let's hope for the best.
There are some things that can't be helped. But if enough people maintain a healthy distance from one another, it'll make things much easier for almost everyone (sadly, infections will take time to come down whatever's done).0 -
Surely the answer is that it will slow the rate of transmission. If it slows it below 1.0 then the virus will slowly die out. It's bad now but would be much worse if social distancing wasn't happening. You can't let exponential growth of infection happen.Nigelb said:
That is a very good question.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
What lockdown has done is give us time to learn about the virus, set up testing systems, and plan a strategy.
Governments had to react day by day at the start, and only those who were lucky enough to have pandemic plans in place based on the SARS experience reacted particularly well. (South Korea had the great luck to have run a full scale exercise only a month or so before it all kicked off.)
Now they have several weeks to decide what comes next.
I don't have an easy answer to that question.0 -
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.4 -
That's really rather bad behaviour, if true.williamglenn said:
It would be one thing for the US to prevent the export of goods from the US for national security purposes. It's another for them to get another government (Thailand) to intervene on the delivery of a contract between a Chinese subsidiary of a US company to a German company.0 -
They also can't do certain things to harm their societies , and given their record on the policies they do have control over ...Malmesbury said:
Being part of a single currency locks them in - them can't do certain things to help their societies. This is exactly the argument as to the problem with the Euro - it is half a currency system.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said in another comment, that time may well come. But it's not now. Not yet.DavidL said:
They need Coronabonds. They need large scale QE so that there is a guaranteed buyer of their bonds in the same way that the BoE has contrived for our government. The ECB are putting too much emphasis on fiscal policies whilst tying the hands of countries as to the scope of these. This puts Italy in particular, and Spain to a large extent in a very difficult situation. If they try anything like Rishi's policies then the cost of their bonds may rise sharply. Here the BoE is guaranteed to rig the market to make sure that does not happen.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
It remains uncertain whether even Rishi's policies are enough. Countries that can only fire one of two barrels are in for a genuinely terrible time.
Simply telling them no at this point is madness.0 -
"It's only 3.6 roentgens... not great but not horrifying..."RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.4 -
As has been said many times before, their numbers can simply be consigned to the dustbin at this point.kyf_100 said:
"It's only 3.6 roentgens... not great but not horrifying..."RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
Same behaviour as with SARS, first case in November 2002 but not reported to WHO until February 2003.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
I'm not sure you're correct here.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Italian 10 year government bonds are currently yielding 1.6%, which is down from 2.9% a year ago. That - to me - indicates that the ECB is, even if quietly, engaging in essentially unlimited purchases of their bonds.
The Italian (and Spanish) government have announced stimulus packages that are - as far as I can see - no smaller than those announced by the UK, or the French or the German governments.
So, I'm not sure either Italy or Spain is being held back from spending, either now, or in their announced plans.
What there has not been has been a Coronabond. But isn't a Coronabond a fundamentally political issue, rather than an economic one? It seems to me like there's already more debt mutualisation in the Eurozone than in the US. If Iowa went bust in the US, it is *possible* that the Federal Government would bail them out, and it's *possible* the Federal Reserve would engage in unlimited purchases of Iowan bonds. But it's far from certain. And whatever happens, it's not like the states of New York or South Carolina would reach into their pockets.2 -
Yes, I get that.logical_song said:
Surely the answer is that it will slow the rate of transmission. If it slows it below 1.0 then the virus will slowly die out. It's bad now but would be much worse if social distancing wasn't happening. You can't let exponential growth of infection happen.Nigelb said:
That is a very good question.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
What lockdown has done is give us time to learn about the virus, set up testing systems, and plan a strategy.
Governments had to react day by day at the start, and only those who were lucky enough to have pandemic plans in place based on the SARS experience reacted particularly well. (South Korea had the great luck to have run a full scale exercise only a month or so before it all kicked off.)
Now they have several weeks to decide what comes next.
I don't have an easy answer to that question.
I am not arguing that lockdowns are ineffective; quite the opposite. (I was one of those arguing for a rather earlier one.)
The 'very good question' is about what happens when we relax the lockdown. And a lot of that depends on data that we just don't yet know.0 -
An example of the "shoot the messenger" phenomenon in action.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
To think that when I watched Chernobyl a few months ago I thought it was the scariest real-life disaster I'd ever seen...rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
Bizarre story:
FRANCE FORCED TO RETURN FACE MASKS IT CONFISCATED FROM SPAIN A FEW WEEKS AGO AFTER PRESSURE FROM THE SWEDISH GOVERNMENT
FRANCE has been forced to return the face masks they confiscated from Spain a few weeks ago.
An order of four millions face masks was scheduled to arrive from the Swedish company Molnlycke – based in Lyon – to Spain.
However, on March 5 the French Government confiscated the masks.
Two days earlier, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, had signed a decree that allows the Government to requisition all necessary products in the fight against the pandemic.
After 15 days of intense pressure from the Swedish Government, France was forced to release the masks to both Spain and Italy which were the original destinations.
They only allowed two million masks though, with the rest remaining in France either to be used there or for re-exporting.
Following the incident, the Swedish company now prevents its goods from circulating in France and will move its logistics to Belgium and will only be distributed from there.
The news was exposed by the French magazine L’Express.
Source: Olive Press0 -
Personally I find carrot cake a bit heavy.SandyRentool said:Afternoon all.
I can report that a number of the large engineering consultancies / engineering design houses have implemented temporary pay cuts for all of their employees.
Some also using the furlough scheme.
In lighter news, today's food delivery included a carrot cake.0 -
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
I think it's fair. If you look at Italy and Spain, the number of fatalities per day was constant after 10-12 days post lockdown. Given this, the number of fatalities tomorrow (I'd guess around 900) might well be the level we'd expect for a week or so. This would give the UK, in total, about 16-20K fatalities, so pretty much in the range of most other countries in Europe when all is said and done (after normalising for population size).RobD said:
That looks quite optimistic given the current rate!Nigelb said:Expected.
But, Blimey...
The health secretary Matt Hancock has indicated that the coronavirus outbreak could reach its peak in the UK on Easter Sunday, with around 1,000 deaths each day running up to that date....1 -
We're all unique on here. But you more than most. Your posts really make me think and yet I'm none the wiser.Omnium said:I'm quite amazed at my own double-standards on this. I look at this and I think its unimportant. If Labour were on the hook I'd think it really important.
Somehow it seems like a baker being accused of making bad bread.
Perhaps this is a similar phenomenon to Labour's wrestling with antisemitism.1 -
SouthamObserver said:
I thought I red yesterday that covid-19 deaths in Sweden are now rising rapidly.Nigelb said:
Though Sweden does not have a capital city of nine million people with a public transport system that enforces social mixing...rcs1000 said:
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...
Yesterday's numbers with Portugal as comparison
Sweden pop 10.1 m 6,078 cases 333 deaths
Portugal pop 10.2 m 9,896 cases 246 deaths0 -
I'd be interested to see the evidence that a cruise ship is significantly safer than a plane in terms of infections. We always hear stories about virus outbreaks on ships, but never as the result of plane travel.Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
Leaving aside, momentarily, the trustworthiness of the Chinese Covid data, I do wonder to what extent generally the regime there believes its own propaganda or trusts information it knows is from officials terrified to tell them something they don't want to hear (as they surely know how they react to such things officially). I recall reading after the Hong Kong elections last year that apparently Beijing really did believe what they had been officially told that the public was on its side and the elections would prove that.Andy_JS said:
An example of the "shoot the messenger" phenomenon in action.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
A salutary lesson at the end of that as to how places which are covering things up or denying them will act, when it noted how low casualty and complications estimate from the Russians is to this day.BluestBlue said:
To think that when I watched Chernobyl a few months ago I thought it was the scariest real-life disaster I'd ever seen...rottenborough said:
It is just a fire on the roof comrade.RobD said:From Guido's piece on this...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/us/politics/cia-coronavirus-china.html
Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where the virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, fearful that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or worse, current and former intelligence officials said.0 -
Some comments from experts on airplanes vs. cruise ships. I know which one I would want to avoid:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled0 -
I have no idea whether it's significantly safer, I highly doubt it, that wasn't my point. The people saying 'cruising will die' are probably people that don't cruise and didn't really see the point anyway. Those who do, will lap up the bargains.RobD said:
I'd be interested to see the evidence that a cruise ship is significantly safer than a plane in terms of infections. We always hear stories about virus outbreaks on ships, but never as the result of plane travel.Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html
But surely the reason you hear about outbreaks on ships is because they are large and slow moving, so lots of people have time to develop symptoms and get very sick. Flights are of short duration and people disperse immediately.0 -
It wouldn't take everyone not doing so to scupper them. How much of a hit can it take?Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html0 -
You suggested it by saying it's equivalent to snogging everyone on board, which I don't think it is.Luckyguy1983 said:
I have no idea whether it's significantly safer, I highly doubt it, that wasn't my point. The people saying 'cruising will die' are probably people that don't cruise and didn't really see the point anyway. Those who do, will lap up the bargains.RobD said:
I'd be interested to see the evidence that a cruise ship is significantly safer than a plane in terms of infections. We always hear stories about virus outbreaks on ships, but never as the result of plane travel.Luckyguy1983 said:
I know people who go cruising already planning their next one. The demise of this form of tourism is not going to happen. You probably tend to fly off on your foreign holiday in a filthy plane where the air con means you've effectively snogged everyone on board. Are you going to stop doing that when theoretically it's safe to do so?RobD said:
We're going to have to think of new uses for these hundreds of cruise ships that will otherwise be empty after all this is over.IanB2 said:Tale of another US disaster: a shipload of cruise ship passengers released onto American internal flights, many already with symptoms.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/us/costa-luminosa-passengers-ordeal/index.html
But surely the reason you hear about outbreaks on ships is because they are large and slow moving, so lots of people have time to develop symptoms and get very sick. Flights are of short duration and people disperse immediately.0 -
This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making, but oh well.RobD said:Some comments from experts on airplanes vs. cruise ships. I know which one I would want to avoid:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled0 -
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
0 -
It’s grate in small pieces.Peter_the_Punter said:
Personally I find carrot cake a bit heavy.SandyRentool said:Afternoon all.
I can report that a number of the large engineering consultancies / engineering design houses have implemented temporary pay cuts for all of their employees.
Some also using the furlough scheme.
In lighter news, today's food delivery included a carrot cake.0 -
True, we need testing. We don't know how many have had it with little or no symptoms.Nigelb said:
Yes, I get that.logical_song said:
Surely the answer is that it will slow the rate of transmission. If it slows it below 1.0 then the virus will slowly die out. It's bad now but would be much worse if social distancing wasn't happening. You can't let exponential growth of infection happen.Nigelb said:
That is a very good question.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
What lockdown has done is give us time to learn about the virus, set up testing systems, and plan a strategy.
Governments had to react day by day at the start, and only those who were lucky enough to have pandemic plans in place based on the SARS experience reacted particularly well. (South Korea had the great luck to have run a full scale exercise only a month or so before it all kicked off.)
Now they have several weeks to decide what comes next.
I don't have an easy answer to that question.
I am not arguing that lockdowns are ineffective; quite the opposite. (I was one of those arguing for a rather earlier one.)
The 'very good question' is about what happens when we relax the lockdown. And a lot of that depends on data that we just don't yet know.0 -
What point were you making then, unless the point about airplanes was totally irrelevant.Luckyguy1983 said:
This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making, but oh well.RobD said:Some comments from experts on airplanes vs. cruise ships. I know which one I would want to avoid:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled0 -
For breaking promises to actually spend it, perhaps?Scott_xP said:0 -
Yep. Bear in mind I am a fan of the EEA and advocated membership from the start of this whole thing (there is a thread on it on here written by me the day after the vote). All I am saying is that the idea that you have to be a part of the EEA to be in EFTA is false.matthiasfromhamburg said:
With >100 painfully negotiated deals over several decades, just to basically replicate the EEA+Schengen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Those that took us in were never going to be satisfied with EFTA. They always believed in the European project. Thankfully that really stupid error has now been corrected. A loose trading association like EFTA is a very good idea. A political and economic union like the EU is not.matthiasfromhamburg said:
After you rejected the initial invitation to join the fun, you set it up. It was going in the same direction (reduction of tariffs and quotas) but not as ambitiously as the EU. Took only a couple of years watching from the sidelines to realise that going for the real thing was more promising, so you joined, like the majority of the other Efta members, the rest was later subsumed in the EEA. Rejoinig only Efta but staying out of the EEA is not really possible, technically.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.
And rejoining EFTA but staying out of the EEA is perfectly possible. Switzerland does it.0 -
Even then, 24 carrot cake is still pretty dense....ydoethur said:
It’s grate in small pieces.Peter_the_Punter said:
Personally I find carrot cake a bit heavy.SandyRentool said:Afternoon all.
I can report that a number of the large engineering consultancies / engineering design houses have implemented temporary pay cuts for all of their employees.
Some also using the furlough scheme.
In lighter news, today's food delivery included a carrot cake.0 -
Well observed.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure you're correct here.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Italian 10 year government bonds are currently yielding 1.6%, which is down from 2.9% a year ago. That - to me - indicates that the ECB is, even if quietly, engaging in essentially unlimited purchases of their bonds.
The Italian (and Spanish) government have announced stimulus packages that are - as far as I can see - no smaller than those announced by the UK, or the French or the German governments.
So, I'm not sure either Italy or Spain is being held back from spending, either now, or in their announced plans.
What there has not been has been a Coronabond. But isn't a Coronabond a fundamentally political issue, rather than an economic one? It seems to me like there's already more debt mutualisation in the Eurozone than in the US. If Iowa went bust in the US, it is *possible* that the Federal Government would bail them out, and it's *possible* the Federal Reserve would engage in unlimited purchases of Iowan bonds. But it's far from certain. And whatever happens, it's not like the states of New York or South Carolina would reach into their pockets.
Eurozone states now need liquidity to sustain consumption. Once the war is over we will need investment to rebuild what was lost. In case they don't become inevitable before, that may be a better time to go down that route.1 -
I work for Swedish-based company. On internal work chat it seems my Swedish colleagues are getting more and more concerned at how their government is handling it.SouthamObserver said:
I thought I red yesterday that covid-19 deaths in Sweden are now rising rapidly.Nigelb said:
Though Sweden does not have a capital city of nine million people with a public transport system that enforces social mixing...rcs1000 said:
Well, we'll know in about a month how "no lockdown" works for a modern Western country.kyf_100 said:
The whole article is worth reading, but the concluding paragraph of that article ( which is itself a quote from here https://www.cebm.net/2020/03/covid-19-the-tipping-point ) is worth highlighting.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text
"Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”
So, we can reverse course if it isn't too bad in Sweden.
But if it is really bad...1 -
Tbf, it's more likely to be delivered if we were in the co-purchasing arrangement than not. However, it may turn out that our own manufacturing efforts are faster and deliver more than buying as part of the collective scheme. They are still waiting for deliveries, the government scheme is beginning to deliver this weekend and expected to deliver significant quantities next week.MarqueeMark said:
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
I actually think this is a better way of doing it as we're not reliant on a foreign source if we need more and given that we are going to get units delivered by UK manufacturing, it wouldn't make sense to deny countries that don't have that capability stock from the international market.0 -
In theory, but not in practice, I think.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. Bear in mind I am a fan of the EEA and advocated membership from the start of this whole thing (there is a thread on it on here written by me the day after the vote). All I am saying is that the idea that you have to be a part of the EEA to be in EFTA is false.matthiasfromhamburg said:
With >100 painfully negotiated deals over several decades, just to basically replicate the EEA+Schengen.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Those that took us in were never going to be satisfied with EFTA. They always believed in the European project. Thankfully that really stupid error has now been corrected. A loose trading association like EFTA is a very good idea. A political and economic union like the EU is not.matthiasfromhamburg said:
After you rejected the initial invitation to join the fun, you set it up. It was going in the same direction (reduction of tariffs and quotas) but not as ambitiously as the EU. Took only a couple of years watching from the sidelines to realise that going for the real thing was more promising, so you joined, like the majority of the other Efta members, the rest was later subsumed in the EEA. Rejoinig only Efta but staying out of the EEA is not really possible, technically.Richard_Tyndall said:
Which is why EFTA is a good idea.matthiasfromhamburg said:
As I said, the EU is not 'doing nothing'. The ESM is being deployed for now. Eurobonds are a means of last resort.MaxPB said:
By not allowing Spain and Italy to write the same blank cheque that Germany and France have been able to write. Obviously it's a simplistic view but it is costing real lives in both countries that they are not able to handle this medical crisis and at the same time not have the same amazing economic damage alleviation that Germany has put in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Fully agree with your second sentence. But how exactly has the EU harmed Spain and Italy recently?MaxPB said:
It is true though. I know in your eyes the sainted EU is always good and we are always evil. However, it is probably the case that the EU is both correct in its stance and not doing right by the people of Spain and Italy. It needs to ensure that all 27 nations are satisfied, asking citizens from one to pay for citizens of another isn't right without democratic consent.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Doesn't make it true, either, does it?MaxPB said:
No, but it doesn't make it not true. It's like when the Telegraph beats up on the government, it's all the more damning.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You think he approves the message?MaxPB said:
Yes, that well known populist, err, Alastair Meeks...matthiasfromhamburg said:
People in distress need scapegoats. European populists have the EU top of their list. No surprise there.malcolmg said:
absolute bolloxkle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
As I said, personally I think the EU have been fair here, but then I'm not exactly the kind of person they need on their side, I'd like to see the whole organisation dissolved and replaced with the EEA which I'd want the UK to be a part of. I don't much believe in this idea of solidarity between the 27 (or 28) nations, even though I think we should definitely be helping the worst affected neighbours with expertise and even medical supplies if we have some spare.
Makes sense to favour the EEA, but without the structure of the EU there is no EEA. The EEA is actually an extension of the EU.
And rejoining EFTA but staying out of the EEA is perfectly possible. Switzerland does it.0 -
Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!1 -
Mr. rpjs, be interesting to see numerous nations' data. I imagine lots of electorates are concerned at their governments' actions, one way or another.0
-
Wouldn't it be a good idea to talk to each other to prevent that kind of problem?MarqueeMark said:
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
That is what the coordination effort is about.0 -
The point I was making is that assuming you do take foreign holidays in a plane, you are quite happily going to sit in a pressurised air conditioned tube alongside people who have Lord-knows what, and you will do this because you will assess the risk, and deem the benefit to your lifestyle and wellbeing of being able to go on the holiday that you want to go on to be worth that risk. It is a failure of imagination to think that people who love cruising, who in my small experience seem to become besotted and start saving for their next one as soon as they return, are not going to do the same thing.RobD said:
What point were you making then, unless the point about airplanes was totally irrelevant.Luckyguy1983 said:
This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making, but oh well.RobD said:Some comments from experts on airplanes vs. cruise ships. I know which one I would want to avoid:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled0 -
Given that EU countries have already blocked shipments of medical equipment, I doubt talking will get us that far.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Wouldn't it be a good idea to talk to each other to prevent that kind of problem?MarqueeMark said:
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
That is what the coordination effort is about.0 -
These are potentially epochal changes in finally sweeping away neo-Victorianism in welfare in Britain and the US. This will be the first time that many will be seeing how the administrative systems and organisation of welfare benefits, in particular of standard unemployment benefits, are really set up in Britain and America since the 1990s, with the American case being even more extreme.Nigelb said:‘It's a sh-- sandwich': Republicans rage as Florida becomes a nightmare for Trump
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its-a-sh-sandwich-republicans-rage-as-florida-becomes-a-nightmare-for-trump-1271172
Shoe... shop...shad ?
Joking apart, it is an appalling story. A new unemployment system, designed at great cost, deliberately, to make it harder to register:
...“It’s a sh-- sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott,” said one DeSantis advisor. “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
Republican Party of Florida chairman Joe Gruters was more succinct: “$77 million? Someone should go to jail over that.”
With hundreds of thousands of Floridians out of work, the state’s overwhelmed system is making it nearly impossible for many people to even get in line for benefits.
After a record number of claims were reported Thursday, DeSantis said the state would resort to paper applications, build a mobile app to handle the flood of traffic and deploy hundreds, even thousands, of state workers to provide stopgap help.
Congress last week delivered relief in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package that directs cash to the unemployed. But to get that money into the pockets of Floridians, the state will have to duct-tape the rickety web-based unemployment system to deliver it....0 -
Your dissing of carrot cake was uncalled for, man. The king of cakes, unless you count a bakewell tart as a cake, in which case it`s a score-draw.SandyRentool said:Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!
0 -
And my point is that airplanes are nowhere near as bad as cruise ships, so it's not really a relevant comparison.Luckyguy1983 said:
The point I was making is that assuming you do take foreign holidays in a plane, you are quite happily going to sit in a pressurised air conditioned tube alongside people who have Lord-knows what, and you will do this because you will assess the risk, and deem the benefit to your lifestyle and wellbeing of being able to go on the holiday that you want to go on to be worth that risk. It is a failure of imagination to think that people who love cruising, who in my small experience seem to become besotted and start saving for their next one as soon as they return, are not going to do the same thing.RobD said:
What point were you making then, unless the point about airplanes was totally irrelevant.Luckyguy1983 said:
This has absolutely nothing to do with the point I was making, but oh well.RobD said:Some comments from experts on airplanes vs. cruise ships. I know which one I would want to avoid:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled0 -
Just heard a friend has been to four funerals this week, including his 34 year old best mate who got the virus - but had an undiagnosed underlying kidney problem and was dead in 48 hours. He can't get spiritual help either - his rabbi was one of the four. As was his employer.0
-
We'll see. Yesterday they announced that the McLaren-Merc etc. cooperation will deliver 30 vents at the weekend. 30.MaxPB said:
Tbf, it's more likely to be delivered if we were in the co-purchasing arrangement than not. However, it may turn out that our own manufacturing efforts are faster and deliver more than buying as part of the collective scheme. They are still waiting for deliveries, the government scheme is beginning to deliver this weekend and expected to deliver significant quantities next week.MarqueeMark said:
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
I actually think this is a better way of doing it as we're not reliant on a foreign source if we need more and given that we are going to get units delivered by UK manufacturing, it wouldn't make sense to deny countries that don't have that capability stock from the international market.0 -
Talk about bad luck.MarqueeMark said:Just heard a friend has been to four funerals this week, including his 34 year old best mate who got the virus - but had an undiagnosed underlying kidney problem and was dead in 48 hours. He can't get spiritual help either - his rabbi was one of the four. As was his employer.
0 -
Mr. Mark, blimey. That sounds horrendous.0
-
It will be very interesting to see what happens. There are far too many people in this country who think they'll never need benefits and so don't care how low they are or how difficult to claim.WhisperingOracle said:
These are potentially epochal changes in finally sweeping away neo-Victorianism in welfare in Britain and the US. This will be the first time that many see how the administration of unemployment benefits is really set up in Britain and America since the 1990s, with the American case being even more extreme.Nigelb said:‘It's a sh-- sandwich': Republicans rage as Florida becomes a nightmare for Trump
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its-a-sh-sandwich-republicans-rage-as-florida-becomes-a-nightmare-for-trump-1271172
Shoe... shop...shad ?
Joking apart, it is an appalling story. A new unemployment system, designed at great cost, deliberately, to make it harder to register:
...“It’s a sh-- sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott,” said one DeSantis advisor. “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
Republican Party of Florida chairman Joe Gruters was more succinct: “$77 million? Someone should go to jail over that.”
With hundreds of thousands of Floridians out of work, the state’s overwhelmed system is making it nearly impossible for many people to even get in line for benefits.
After a record number of claims were reported Thursday, DeSantis said the state would resort to paper applications, build a mobile app to handle the flood of traffic and deploy hundreds, even thousands, of state workers to provide stopgap help.
Congress last week delivered relief in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package that directs cash to the unemployed. But to get that money into the pockets of Floridians, the state will have to duct-tape the rickety web-based unemployment system to deliver it....
A rude awakening?0 -
The talking to each other seems to occur only once one nation has nicked another country's PPE.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Wouldn't it be a good idea to talk to each other to prevent that kind of problem?MarqueeMark said:
I have more confidence of doing a "world market terms" deal than I do with working in a trading bloc we have already left. When France, Germany, Italy, Spain still need ventilators - that shipment for London at the docks in Rotterdam is going to happen you reckon?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Do you have any confidence that buying ventilators from Dräger on world market terms will be quicker or cheaper or more reliable than doing so in the context of a pan European scheme?MarqueeMark said:
Does anyone have any confidence that those "joint EU made ventilators" manufactured in Europe would have actually got across the Channel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, didn't the French do this with similar gear ordered by the NHS (goods made in France)?
That is what the coordination effort is about.
So no.0 -
I'm not dissing the cake! I enjoyed a slice at lunchtime.Stocky said:
Your dissing of carrot cake was uncalled for, man. The king of cakes, unless you count a bakewell tart as a cake, in which case it`s a score-draw.SandyRentool said:Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!0 -
Does Hancock ever smile? Always comes across as a grumpy so-and-so
0 -
Oh yeah - sorry - as you wereSandyRentool said:
I'm not dissing the cake! I enjoyed a slice at lunchtime.Stocky said:
Your dissing of carrot cake was uncalled for, man. The king of cakes, unless you count a bakewell tart as a cake, in which case it`s a score-draw.SandyRentool said:Only on PB:
My news on the engineering contracting sector passes uncommented, but a mention of carrot cake spawns a punathon!0 -
Horrible for your friend, but I'm very surprised he was allowed to attend them. It was immediate family only for my Mother-in-Law.MarqueeMark said:Just heard a friend has been to four funerals this week, including his 34 year old best mate who got the virus - but had an undiagnosed underlying kidney problem and was dead in 48 hours. He can't get spiritual help either - his rabbi was one of the four. As was his employer.
0
This discussion has been closed.