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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is that at least there’s scope for imporvement
Well tomorrow at this time LAB will have its new leader and the suggested negative influence of Corbyn will be no more. The big question is whether the former DPP is able to so present a different proposition to voters that first, the seats lost at GE2019, become prospects again.
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First like Starmer0
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...0
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Third like Lisa0
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Fourth like ... Emily T?0
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Downside for Starmer is there isn't much scope for taking voters from the LDs or Brexit party.
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If I'm fifth like Burgon that's still 196 places too high.
Edit - sixth, so 195 places too high.0 -
Fourth like Labour in Scotland0
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Old US Submarine Service joke -
"The advantage to being whale shit at the bottom of the Marianas Trench, is that *everything* is up from here."0 -
And the Lord said unto Scottish Labour, 'Come forth!' But they could only manage seventh...squareroot2 said:Fourth like Labour in Scotland
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Spelling of ‘improvement’ could do with some!0
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No, chained volume on an annulaised basis. That's how the US reports GDP.Nigelb said:
Do the growth figures refer to a comparison with the previous quarter, or, as is more usual, to the same quarter the preceding year, though ?IshmaelZ said:
Wrong! 100 * 0.7 * 1.3 = 91.kle4 said:
What a coincidence it completely negates Q2.Pulpstar said:
4Q looks err... bold.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1246050008157376512?s=20
US figures, annualised, I infer.0 -
A bad day to bury good news?0
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Taxi for the Scottish Labour Party...ydoethur said:
And the Lord said unto Scottish Labour, 'Come forth!' But they could only manage seventh...squareroot2 said:Fourth like Labour in Scotland
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"Covid nineteen virus" in an anagram of "vindictive neurons".
It`s a slow day.0 -
Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.0
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Ipsos Mori had Starmer with a favourable rating of 35%, if so that would take Labour's rating significantly above the 28% it is on today even if the Tories still lead.
It should be noted though that while Starmer has a very positive rating with Remainers he still has a net negative rating with Leavers0 -
From the last thread - if you have potentially vulnerable relatives - get them registered at
https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable
Then make sure that this is followed by a letter via their GP a short time later. This letter has the details on how to access the various services.0 -
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
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In years to come TSE will be crediting Starmer for improving from this low base rather than Nandy for winning a majority!0
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1Q: -7% -1.75%
2Q: -30% -7.5%
3Q: -1% -0.25%
4Q +30% +7.5%
2.5% drop in GDP.0 -
684 more deaths related to Covid-19 in the UK0
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Not sure about that ... Lib Dems are in a holding pattern, and in at least 2 or 3 minds.TGOHF666 said:Downside for Starmer is there isn't much scope for taking voters from the LDs or Brexit party.
If Starmer the Charmer encourages Labour back from planet Tharg, something could happen.0 -
What are you wittering on about stalker boy?isam said:In years to come TSE will be crediting Starmer for improving from this low base rather than Nandy for winning a majority!
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Yeah, they possibly just want to rack up as many delegates as possible under his name then get him to drop out so that they can essentially pick whoever they want and tell the delegates to vote for them. It'll be interesting to see how much anger there is in the party if they go that routeMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
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https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
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It's not a desirable trait in a presidential candidate.Andy_JS said:1 -
FPT:
I had 100 * 0.93^0.25 * 0.7^0.25 * 0.99^0.25 * 1.3^0.25MaxPB said:
Can you take me through that calculation?Endillion said:
I make it a 4.3% annual fall, including the Q1 decline of 7%.MaxPB said:
Indicates a 2.5% annual fall in GDP which is pretty awful.RobD said:
Meeks makes a good point that -30 followed by +30 is not status quo ante.Nigelb said:
That looks astonishingly optimistic...AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1246050008157376512?s=20
US figures, annualised, I infer.
Q4 could be almost literally anything, depending on how the virus progresses.
I have it as 100 * 0.9825 * 0.925 * 0.9975 * 1.075 = 0.9745
But I think you're correct in terms of the way the US report annualised figures.0 -
Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?0
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It looks as though he was looking down at notes!Andy_JS said:0 -
That will either get everyone indoors, or outdoors.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
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@Cyclefree 's Gardening Corner #gardeningcorner.
This is a followup to the previous curly-edged bush identification question.
Speaking to a flower arranging friend, the garden seems to have been a Flower Arranger's Garden. And there is a bay tree (easy), but also a Portuguese Laurel (Prunus Lusitania) and a Cheesewood / Australian Laurel (Pittosporum Undulatum).
(Slight doubt on the variety of pittosporum.
Here are piccies of the 3 for the several people who took part in the debate. I am reasonably confident in the identifications of 2 and 3.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246054159306153987
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246055691854532608
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1246057933294768130
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Banging pots and pans?RobD said:
That will either get everyone indoors, or outdoors.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
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Hopefully. Though I have to say in my little corner of North West London everything is very quiet.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
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In the UK bicycles have to be sold with a bell. You are not obliged to keep it on the bike.jayfdee said:
As a regular cyclist, with a bell, I regularly use shared routes, I get grief from pedestrians if I do use my bell, "No need to ring like that", I get grief if I do not use the bell, I get grief when I use the bell but the pedestrian is deaf.Alphabet_Soup said:
Fake Highway Code alert.JohnO said:
As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.Alphabet_Soup said:
Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.Malmesbury said:
A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.TOPPING said:
Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.Andy_JS said:
Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.TOPPING said:
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.MarqueeMark said:
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....Malmesbury said:
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.GIN1138 said:
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!twistedfirestopper3 said:I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."
It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
I get grief from the drunks under the canal bridges.
So many people say you cannot ride a bike here, I always check, and am right.
I have had horse riders telling me this is a Bridleway for horses, you are not allowed etc. Sometimes it is hard to be a cyclist.
This thing in the UK where people think if you ring a bike bell you are being aggressive is really annoying. A bell means nothing more than be awares there is a bike there. Often it's fine for the pedestians to keep walking in the same direction, just don't suddenly veer to the side.
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It's a big problem for them, because that is clearly the best strategy right now, but also just as clearly the pathway most likely to result in Sanders supporters refusing to turn out and vote for the replacement. It's also makes it super easy for Trump to paint the other guy as a loser - it won't be Sanders, so it'll be someone who lost to both Sanders and Biden. If it's a non-runner, then suddenly Trump is (again) the big saviour of democracy and the little guy against the establishment stitch-up opposing him.Stereotomy said:
Yeah, they possibly just want to rack up as many delegates as possible under his name then get him to drop out so that they can essentially pick whoever they want and tell the delegates to vote for them. It'll be interesting to see how much anger there is in the party if they go that routeMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
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In protest this time?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Banging pots and pans?RobD said:
That will either get everyone indoors, or outdoors.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
Hopefully she reinforces the message that staying at home is important. You don't want people like the queen to die now, do you?
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It's hard not to conclude that the Democrat establishment would prefer President Trump to President Sanders.Endillion said:
It's a big problem for them, because that is clearly the best strategy right now, but also just as clearly the pathway most likely to result in Sanders supporters refusing to turn out and vote for the replacement. It's also makes it super easy for Trump to paint the other guy as a loser - it won't be Sanders, so it'll be someone who lost to both Sanders and Biden. If it's a non-runner, then suddenly Trump is (again) the big saviour of democracy and the little guy against the establishment stitch-up opposing him.Stereotomy said:
Yeah, they possibly just want to rack up as many delegates as possible under his name then get him to drop out so that they can essentially pick whoever they want and tell the delegates to vote for them. It'll be interesting to see how much anger there is in the party if they go that routeMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
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Yet at the moment he might well winMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245933878272880642?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245827348366319616?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245769919792394240?s=200 -
So long as she doesn't add "and my husband and children", we ought to be fine.RobD said:
In protest this time?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Banging pots and pans?RobD said:
That will either get everyone indoors, or outdoors.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
Hopefully she reinforces the message that staying at home is important. You don't want people like the queen to die now, do you?0 -
The campaign hasn't started yet the polls literally mean nothing. I wish you'd stop taking them as gospel and posting the over and over again.HYUFD said:
Yet at the moment he might well winMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245933878272880642?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245827348366319616?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245769919792394240?s=200 -
It's to both the country and the Commonwealth. I'd expect it to be a 'dig in, do what you're told and we can all beat this'-kind of message.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
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And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
Probably the single most convincing and current political contribution from McDonnell since 2016, and it also happens to be his last.
"John McDonnell has called for a wealth tax on the richest in society and a windfall levy on the banking industry to fund the government’s emergency response to the coronavirus crisis, as the social and economic costs of the outbreak rapidly mount.
In his final act as shadow chancellor before Labour elects a new leader on Saturday, McDonnell said the rapidly rising cost to the public purse of the escalating global health pandemic needed to be borne by those with the broadest shoulders.
“We pay for it by introducing an immediate windfall tax on the banks and finance sector we bailed out when they brought about the crisis a decade ago,” he said, adding that it should be combined with a wealth tax on the richest within our society, and a tax on multinationals.
“We can demonstrate just as the current government has demonstrated, that when we need the resources, they can always be found.”
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Ughmatthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
I just saw that story. Let me be the first to wish McDonnell a long retirement full of private joy and complete political irrelevance.WhisperingOracle said:Probably the single most convincing and current political contribution from McDonnell since 2016, and it also happens to be his last.
"John McDonnell has called for a wealth tax on the richest in society and a windfall levy on the banking industry to fund the government’s emergency response to the coronavirus crisis, as the social and economic costs of the outbreak rapidly mount.
In his final act as shadow chancellor before Labour elects a new leader on Saturday, McDonnell said the rapidly rising cost to the public purse of the escalating global health pandemic needed to be borne by those with the broadest shoulders.
“We pay for it by introducing an immediate windfall tax on the banks and finance sector we bailed out when they brought about the crisis a decade ago,” he said, adding that it should be combined with a wealth tax on the richest within our society, and a tax on multinationals.
“We can demonstrate just as the current government has demonstrated, that when we need the resources, they can always be found.”
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Then he should have run as a candidate in the primaries. If the Dems bait and switch Trump will win.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
I have Covid 19, so Charles will be made regent.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
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Given the 'Live' banner in the bottom right, it probably wasn't.IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
Then he shouldn't be running for fecking POTUS, should he?!Andy_JS said:1 -
Its not as tho they don't know what he is like.... Corbyn talked bullshit and untruths but his delivery wasn't that badDavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
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Is that a given, in times like these?MaxPB said:
Then he should have run as a candidate in the primaries. If the Dems bait and switch Trump will win.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
If Biden isn't up to it, Trump will win.MaxPB said:
Then he should have run as a candidate in the primaries. If the Dems bait and switch Trump will win.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
They have chosen the guy who stole from... Neil Kinnock's rhetoric....DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen
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There are 330 million people in the US.DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen
Let's assume 60% are ineligible due to youth or nationality.
Out of 132 million people, surely to goodness there are better candidates than Trump, Sanders and Biden?1 -
What do they envisage in getting tougher though? Not all may agree on thatHYUFD said:0 -
I agree although I've seen a couple of others almost as bad. It's such a worry. But I'd hope that if Biden truly is not up to the campaign the Dems will swap him out. Whoever they pick (if compos mentis) will beat Trump IMO. And I can hardly wait. In my wilder reveries I see November 2020 as the month when Trump is defeated and by pure co-incidence also the month a vaccine is announced. Imagine that. In one fell swoop the world is rid not only of a truly horrible disease which threatens all we hold dear, but also of this wretched virus.IshmaelZ said:Much worse than anything else we have seen
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The bell = horn thing, is why some cyclists use the speaker-playing-relaxed music approach.eristdoof said:
In the UK bicycles have to be sold with a bell. You are not obliged to keep it on the bike.jayfdee said:
As a regular cyclist, with a bell, I regularly use shared routes, I get grief from pedestrians if I do use my bell, "No need to ring like that", I get grief if I do not use the bell, I get grief when I use the bell but the pedestrian is deaf.Alphabet_Soup said:
Fake Highway Code alert.JohnO said:
As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.Alphabet_Soup said:
Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.Malmesbury said:
A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.TOPPING said:
Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.Andy_JS said:
Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.TOPPING said:
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.MarqueeMark said:
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....Malmesbury said:
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.GIN1138 said:
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!twistedfirestopper3 said:I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."
It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
I get grief from the drunks under the canal bridges.
So many people say you cannot ride a bike here, I always check, and am right.
I have had horse riders telling me this is a Bridleway for horses, you are not allowed etc. Sometimes it is hard to be a cyclist.
This thing in the UK where people think if you ring a bike bell you are being aggressive is really annoying. A bell means nothing more than be awares there is a bike there. Often it's fine for the pedestians to keep walking in the same direction, just don't suddenly veer to the side.
Very hard to be aggressive towards someone playing a piano concerto...0 -
Has @isam hacked your account?AlastairMeeks said:1 -
Not only is his brain a piece of shit but he looks 10-15 years older than he actually is.DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen1 -
Biden's not Corbyn. Sanders is the healthcare-obsessed option that was inaccurately compared to Corbyn, but shot himself in the foot by describing himself, rather than being , in European terms, a socialist.squareroot2 said:
Its not as tho they dont know what he is like.... cirbyn talked bushit and untruths but his delivery wasnt that badDavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Polls matter and are half the point of this site.MaxPB said:
The campaign hasn't started yet the polls literally mean nothing. I wish you'd stop taking them as gospel and posting the over and over again.HYUFD said:
Yet at the moment he might well winMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245933878272880642?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245827348366319616?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245769919792394240?s=20
No other Democrat polled as well as Biden v Trump0 -
Best hope nothing much changes over the weekend I guess.HYUFD said:
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Post from last nightTheScreamingEagles said:684 more deaths related to Covid-19 in the UK
684 is pretty close to 730 (well within that prediction interval) so not a lot to get excited about for now in terms of there being any deviation from trend. Or not yet, anyway (fingers crossed...)MyBurningEars said:
I have done some negative binomial time series modelling on the UK deaths figures (ie Poisson regression with overdispersion and possibly serial dependencies) and the thing that struck me is how big the "plus or minus" is on any given day just due to random variation, let alone the uncertainty in the estimation itself.Paristonda said:So the French figures looked good today. obviously excluding the 884 deaths which was a lump sum since the start of the outbreak (they weren't measuring the care home deaths at the time). New infections at about +2000 and deaths under 500. just a blip or a sign of the growth rate slowing in France, which would indicate the country managing to avoid being than Italy and Spain?
For example a very basic constant-growth model for the UK data suggests deaths are growing at about 25% per day but that comes with a degree of uncertainty (21% to 28% daily growth is the 95% confidence interval). But the model's predictions for the next 3 days are:
730 deaths (95% prediction interval 400 to 1100)
910 deaths (95% prediction interval 520 to 1400)
1100 deaths (95% prediction interval 620 to 1800)
So even if tomorrow the number of UK deaths falls to 450 or jumps over 1000 for the first time, it doesn't necessarily indicate a substantial departure from trend.
The minimum kind of variation you'd expect for a count data series would be if it were Poisson distributed, so comes with a standard deviation approximating the square root of the current count (eg a figure of exactly 400 should be taken with a pinch of salt because it could quite easily by chance have gone one or two standard deviations either way, and since one standard deviation would be 20ish it's probably best read as "320ish to 480ish, but probably in the region 360 to 440").
But every model I tried showed quite substantial overdispersion (hence a negative binomial rather than Poisson distribution) and for that constant growth model it's so bad that the standard deviation should be about one quarter of the count, for reasonably large count sizes - so you would need to read a count of 400 as likely coming with plus or minus 100 of random variation, or even plus or minus 200 if you go out to two standard deviations either way.
Basically it isn't worth getting super excited about a day or even a couple of days of data!
I think @Foxy reckoned COVID admissions at his hospital were growing circa 20% per day still. The national admissions data might be more indicative, certainly more timely, than the deaths.2 -
Haha I wouldn’t trade insults with me if I were you! Remember we’ve met!! 🤣TheScreamingEagles said:
What are you wittering on about stalker boy?isam said:In years to come TSE will be crediting Starmer for improving from this low base rather than Nandy for winning a majority!
Just that you often make the point that Cameron winning lots of seats from a low base is better than Boris getting a bigger majority. I thought that tied in with the thread headers topic.1 -
In fairness Kinnock wrote some brilliant speeches. His Bournemouth 1985 speech was one of the best by a British politician I have ever heard. I honestly can't think of a better one in my lifetime.Malmesbury said:
They have chosen the guy who stole from... Neil Kinnock's rhetoric....DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen2 -
He's ruled it out already, and in any case right now it would be downright irresponsible for him to be spending any time whatsoever putting together the campaign team he would need in place.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen
Also is there any evidence he plays well outside the North East (and possibly California)? Seems at least plausible that this is being driven by media forgetting (again) who actually matters in US general elections.1 -
Yes, he becomes the defender of democracy and the Bernie bros sit the election out.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Is that a given, in times like these?MaxPB said:
Then he should have run as a candidate in the primaries. If the Dems bait and switch Trump will win.matthiasfromhamburg said:
I think Stephen Colbert summed it up well when he said that America was getting "Andrewcurious" and some even outright "Cuomosexual".IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen0 -
I don't think they can swap him out. Unless he resigns the nomination - at which point the Sanders supporters will demand their man...kinabalu said:
I agree although I've seen a couple of others almost as bad. It's such a worry. But I'd hope that if Biden truly is not up to the campaign the Dems will swap him out. Whoever they pick (if compos mentis) will beat Trump IMO. And I can hardly wait. In my wilder reveries I see November 2020 as the month when Trump is defeated and by pure co-incidence also the month a vaccine is announced. Imagine that. In one fell swoop the world is rid not only of a truly horrible disease which threatens all we hold dear, but also of this wretched virus.IshmaelZ said:Much worse than anything else we have seen
0 -
Peston will be pleased; he keeps telling us there's a shortage of reagents.kle4 said:
I have Covid 19, so Charles will be made regent.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
3 -
Good to see the EU giving Italy and Spain an encouraging high five.kle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
And following sensible handwashing procedures.2 -
Looked at again, its just phenomenal: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=kinnock+famous+speeches&ru=/search?q=kinnock+famous+speeches&form=EDGTCT&qs=PF&cvid=b48df293cb6a4b2b993884b1b3c760f2&refig=33e9fc7f186e436ba246bec469f4c927&cc=GB&setlang=en-US&elv=AXK1c4IvZoNqPoPnS%21QRLOMVVfc4J%21E3ZvdvIOkQdwTS65MxwSTEPsrbZ8bmB3dqXeOrmcfiTt100x6RKEdgMNhHmwG9QEK30urenX15pIE%21&plvar=0&PC=DCTS&mmscn=vwrc&view=detail&mid=9BA4498E5E62E69A1B3D9BA4498E5E62E69A1B3D&rvsmid=D7119416E398B93045BBD7119416E398B93045BB&FORM=VDQVAPDavidL said:
In fairness Kinnock wrote some brilliant speeches. His Bournemouth 1985 speech was one of the best by a British politician I have ever heard. I honestly can't think of a better one in my lifetime.Malmesbury said:
They have chosen the guy who stole from... Neil Kinnock's rhetoric....DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen
Real courage, real leadership.0 -
I think we can end the thread here.Endillion said:
Peston will be pleased; he keeps telling us there's a shortage of reagents.kle4 said:
I have Covid 19, so Charles will be made regent.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
0 -
Are we sure that wasn't just to reassure people about his physical state?Quincel said:
Given the 'Live' banner in the bottom right, it probably wasn't.IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen4 -
Are lockdowns effective ?
Spain and Italy suggest the timelag to improvement is looooong...
0 -
Polls matter for betting purposes, not for who is actually going to win. Not at this stage anyway.HYUFD said:
Polls matter and are half the point of this site.MaxPB said:
The campaign hasn't started yet the polls literally mean nothing. I wish you'd stop taking them as gospel and posting the over and over again.HYUFD said:
Yet at the moment he might well winMaxPB said:
The Dems need to step in, Biden clearly had some form of dementia. It would just be cruel to watch him run.RobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245933878272880642?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245827348366319616?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1245769919792394240?s=20
No other Democrat polled as well as Biden v Trump0 -
If you are dealing with a double decker bus or a truck, or even say a noisy car or a quiet car with double glazing, a bell is useless.Malmesbury said:
The bell = horn thing, is why some cyclists use the speaker-playing-relaxed music approach.eristdoof said:
In the UK bicycles have to be sold with a bell. You are not obliged to keep it on the bike.jayfdee said:
As a regular cyclist, with a bell, I regularly use shared routes, I get grief from pedestrians if I do use my bell, "No need to ring like that", I get grief if I do not use the bell, I get grief when I use the bell but the pedestrian is deaf.Alphabet_Soup said:
Fake Highway Code alert.JohnO said:
As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.Alphabet_Soup said:
Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.Malmesbury said:
A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.TOPPING said:
Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.Andy_JS said:
Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.TOPPING said:
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.MarqueeMark said:
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....Malmesbury said:
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.GIN1138 said:
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!twistedfirestopper3 said:I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."
It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
I get grief from the drunks under the canal bridges.
So many people say you cannot ride a bike here, I always check, and am right.
I have had horse riders telling me this is a Bridleway for horses, you are not allowed etc. Sometimes it is hard to be a cyclist.
This thing in the UK where people think if you ring a bike bell you are being aggressive is really annoying. A bell means nothing more than be awares there is a bike there. Often it's fine for the pedestians to keep walking in the same direction, just don't suddenly veer to the side.
Very hard to be aggressive towards someone playing a piano concerto...
The modern version of the air hooter mentioned up thread is the Air Zound or the Hornit. Or this ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9nonCqesLI
https://vimeo.com/446502940 -
Pontius Pilate used a basin.Luckyguy1983 said:
Good to see the EU giving Italy and Spain an encouraging high five.kle4 said:
Dark!AlastairMeeks said:
And following sensible handwashing procedures.0 -
No, they want other people stopped from doing the thing that *they* do but have A Good Reason For Doing. Unlike those other, EVIL, people.noneoftheabove said:
It's another irregular verb...
I have a valid excuse
You are breaking the quarantine
He should be arrested under a non-existent law1 -
ydoethur said:
Are we sure that wasn't just to reassure people about his physical state?Quincel said:
Given the 'Live' banner in the bottom right, it probably wasn't.IanB2 said:
And that was probably Take Five..IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen 0 -
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text0 -
In my experience, many people want the restrictions to be tougher for everyone else but not for themselves! Either that or they are confident that they'll be able to circumvent anything too personally inconvenient.kle4 said:
What do they envisage in getting tougher though? Not all may agree on thatHYUFD said:0 -
I agree. Kinnock was outstanding with a set-piece speech, albeit much poorer and prone to waffle off the cuff (Westland affair was perhaps the worst example where he badly lost his way at a key moment).DavidL said:
In fairness Kinnock wrote some brilliant speeches. His Bournemouth 1985 speech was one of the best by a British politician I have ever heard. I honestly can't think of a better one in my lifetime.Malmesbury said:
They have chosen the guy who stole from... Neil Kinnock's rhetoric....DavidL said:
Truly awful. What have the Dems done?IshmaelZ said:
https://twitter.com/denijeg/status/1245075433353285633Stereotomy said:
Good thing the democrats picked the "electable" candidateRobD said:Good lord that Biden clip at the end of the last thread.
Much worse than anything else we have seen1 -
Does that time lag make 'no improvements' the better option?TGOHF666 said:Are lockdowns effective ?
Spain and Italy suggest the timelag to improvement is looooong...0 -
Depends what time she does the address. Before 9 pm - watershed moment. After 9 pm - lagershed moment.matthiasfromhamburg said:Her Majesty to address the nation this weekend. Watershed moment?
1 -
That was a rollercoaster of a sentence.rottenborough said:Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375?=&utm_source=adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=usage&utm_content=daily&utm_term=text 0 -
Not loud enough. I think something using shaped nuclear explosions is required.MattW said:
If you are dealing with a double decker bus or a truck, or even say a noisy car or a quiet car with double glazing, a bell is useless.Malmesbury said:
The bell = horn thing, is why some cyclists use the speaker-playing-relaxed music approach.eristdoof said:
In the UK bicycles have to be sold with a bell. You are not obliged to keep it on the bike.jayfdee said:
As a regular cyclist, with a bell, I regularly use shared routes, I get grief from pedestrians if I do use my bell, "No need to ring like that", I get grief if I do not use the bell, I get grief when I use the bell but the pedestrian is deaf.Alphabet_Soup said:
Fake Highway Code alert.JohnO said:
As pedestrians have the right of way at zebra crossings the cyclist should be pedalling sufficiently slowly to be able to stop, just like cars. F*ck his miserable clapped-out klaxon.Alphabet_Soup said:
Over 30 years ago a London friend had a bicycle klaxon powered by an aerosol can. It made a noise midway between a fire engine and a rampaging dinosaur. It was particularly effective at zebra crossings to remind pedestrians that bikes don't operate with a three-foot stopping distance.Malmesbury said:
A number ion cyclists in London, pre virus, took to attaching a speaker to their bikes and playing music. This was to stop dozy pedestrians stepping into the road as they approach.TOPPING said:
Mine doesn't or yes that would have been the sensible option.Andy_JS said:
Do bikes still have bells on them these days? Maybe that's old-fashioned.TOPPING said:
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.MarqueeMark said:
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....Malmesbury said:
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.GIN1138 said:
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!twistedfirestopper3 said:I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
There was one chap I used to see near Bank - upright bike, pinstripe suit, always playing Brahms......
What it actually says is: "Give traffic plenty of time to see you and to stop before you start to cross. Vehicles will need more time when the road is slippery. Wait until traffic has stopped from both directions or the road is clear before crossing."
It doesn't say anything about slowing down just in case someone steps out without looking.
I get grief from the drunks under the canal bridges.
So many people say you cannot ride a bike here, I always check, and am right.
I have had horse riders telling me this is a Bridleway for horses, you are not allowed etc. Sometimes it is hard to be a cyclist.
This thing in the UK where people think if you ring a bike bell you are being aggressive is really annoying. A bell means nothing more than be awares there is a bike there. Often it's fine for the pedestians to keep walking in the same direction, just don't suddenly veer to the side.
Very hard to be aggressive towards someone playing a piano concerto...
The modern version of the air hooter mentioned up thread is the Air Zound or the Hornit. Or this ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9nonCqesLI0 -
0
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This discussion has been closed.