if it is than it would suggest that the scoshale distancing, and other protections that people where doing spontaneously before the 'lock down' became policy. had the desired result, and therefor the knockdown may not have been needed.
sadly, However it may just be that people with 'flu lick systems' can now stay home form work and don't feel the need to go to hospital, and are therefor not being tested?
But won't this go up tomorrow as they are starting to measure Covid19 deaths in the community as well ?
Don't get me wrong it is great this is reducing especially as it is on a consistent measure.
err, yes it would, tomorows numbers may be bad for that reason,
I was trying to emphasis my first point, that given the 20 ish day lag between diagnosis and death, that we should not all start to shown 'the lock down has worked' while keeping an open mind at this as to the real situation.
On facebook right now there are pictures of nurses in Southend wearing bin bags on their heads to cover their hair - they do appear to have aprons though
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?
Good question.
As far as I know I have no underlying health conditions, but my BMI is over 30. If asked I'd say I have no underlying conditions but if that is one in itself that would be good to know.
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
I defer to Foxy on the medical expertise, but would have thought that the less dead weight you are carrying at time of infection, the less work your lungs will have to do to see you through?
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?
I think it meant pretty serious conditions, like having leukaemia, being a bad diabetic, having chemo
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
Yes, it does. Prof Roy Taylor has done a lot of interesting work on how crash dieting improves insulin responsee. Insulin is quite a driver of chronic inflammation and blood pressure as well. Improved parameters in 7 days in his study.
One question. We know that diabetes and high BP are not good if you catch this virus. However, what are the survival odds for this group - presumably not all end up in ICU and then die. Asking for a friend.
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
For measures taken in a genuine emergency which have not yet been abused? Seems improbable even if the measures look dreadful.
Given there is no legal provision in the treaties to 'expel' a member state, this could only ever be a political process, and that is indeed improbable. Furthermore, it may not be the wisest thing to expel Orban, anyway. Only half of Hungary is standing behind him, the other half has different views and needs friends outside of the country. The rest of the EU can not exert a lot of pressure initially but may have more influence on the development in the long term with Hungary in the EU, rather than on its doorstep.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
Yes, it does. Prof Roy Taylor has done a lot of interesting work on how crash dieting improves insulin responsee. Insulin is quite a driver of chronic inflammation and blood pressure as well. Improved parameters in 7 days in his study.
Across March my BMI has fallen by 2 points. Every little helps, might be in shape if this lasts much longer - not eating takeaways makes a massive difference.
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less so
With Itexit looking more likely by the day and Hungary, the EU is in an awful mess.
Neither are going anywhere, I'd put good money on that.
Correct - Hungary gets a free pass during the crisis and Italy has transferred patients to Germany today. The solidarity argument for now is winning out.
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
I’m looking at where Italy was on 16th March and comparing it to where we are today. Boris’ critics were eager to make this comparison had things turned out differently
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
as David Starkey said "we can be sure this isn't the bubonic plague"
But then he doesn't have a tv show that craves viewers.
I very much hope that libertarian Boris will not allow this to slide towards a state where a certificate has to be be produced showing antibody test in order to be allowed out of the isolation rules.
I can see it heading that way unfortunately.
This could leave those who have isolated for weeks into a permanent imprisonment in their own homes.
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
I suspect that if the powers are not rescinded in the recovery phase then the punishment would be financial.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I am not agreeing with it, but innocent makes sense in the parallel they are drawing.
It seems to be the Police communications teams being idiots. Has anyone actually been arrested for buying Easter eggs?
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.
Vs 2158 I think
I think that depends on how you count the 8 hour day that we had about a week ago.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less so
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.
Vs 2158 I think
Today's figures are for yesterday's date. So 1809.
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
Point of order: the French have cheerfully some paid fines for years.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I am not agreeing with it, but innocent makes sense in the parallel they are drawing.
It seems to be the Police communications teams being idiots. Has anyone actually been arrested for buying Easter eggs?
Give it a go. We promise to rally round to make you a civil liberty icon
Brutal cops arrest NHS hero.
But felix makes a good point about the majority, we shouldn't go too far. Though with police powers you've got to be wary and nip it in the bud quickly.
Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.
They say 15% in Spain
15% [3.7%-41%]
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
Point of order: the French have cheerfully some paid fines for years.
Really? Do you have examples?
All the ones I could think of were ones where they were ordered to pay, and then ignored the order.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less so
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
Well said. Don't let a couple of idiots (Police or otherwise) be interpreted as everyone acting that way.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less so
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!
Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have a winner for typo of the year...
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less so
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!
Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.
They say 15% in Spain
15% [3.7%-41%]
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.
As I said yesterday, Imperial are the Oxford of London.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
Well said. Don't let a couple of idiots (Police or otherwise) be interpreted as everyone acting that way.
Indeed - ironic that the person on here most critical of the 'jobsworth' mentality among public officials needs a long look in the mirror.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.
They say 15% in Spain
15% [3.7%-41%]
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.
As I said yesterday, Imperial are the Oxford of London.
And to think I nearly considered accepting an offer to do my PhD there, on the basis they offered me more money....
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
I don't understand?
Yew will get it if you read the first post carefully.
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
I think you're correct. Focus on eating good, nourishing food. A good weight is a by product of being healthy, not the other way around.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
I don't understand?
'Privet' healthcare. Keeping a fence around the infected.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
As has been noted often all life doesnt stop even in an emergency nor does it mean nothing else matters. The government and police are rightly being given plenty of leeway right now, but not Orban level carte blanche, and existing issues can be mostly sidelined but need not be forgotten about.
Even now, yes. Particularly if some of the problems are leading to issues now, small or not.
Like many I'm in a place where usual procedures must be set aside and priorities rearranged or even discarded for a time. It doesnt mean concerns no longer exist or that things cannot be done in a proper way now. It's one reason parliament rightly pushed back on sunset clause wording.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
I don't understand?
'Privet' healthcare. Keeping a fence around the infected.
I am rewriting my will (never a better time...) Is it better to leave it all to Mrs Foxy, or to Fox jr, with Mrs Foxy getting control until her demise, from the point of view of inheritance tax?
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.
Government advice can sometimes be just plain wrong about what the law is, even when it makes sense.
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
I think you're correct. Focus on eating good, nourishing food. A good weight is a by product of being healthy, not the other way around.
Crash weight loss in general doesn't work - adjust your lifestyle for less calories and increase your exercise. That keeps the pounds off.
Remember that your body will often try to avoid you losing weight at the start - increase exercise, good diet and watch what happens over a period of time.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
My priority is not catching this virus. Which is why I have been self-isolated for over 10 days now and not been out of the house.
You?
I am also quite capable of thinking about more than one thing at a time. I do not think that a dangerous virus is a good reason for allowing the police - or anyone else - to ignore the law, especially when they have been given all the powers they need. I think this not because of some abstract theory but because if the regulations brought in to protect us all - and especially people like me - are abused and brought into disrepute then that increases the risks for all of us.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?
For measures taken in a genuine emergency which have not yet been abused? Seems improbable even if the measures look dreadful.
Given there is no legal provision in the treaties to 'expel' a member state, this could only ever be a political process, and that is indeed improbable. Furthermore, it may not be the wisest thing to expel Orban, anyway. Only half of Hungary is standing behind him, the other half has different views and needs friends outside of the country. The rest of the EU can not exert a lot of pressure initially but may have more influence on the development in the long term with Hungary in the EU, rather than on its doorstep.
Orban gets away with being a tinpot dictator because Hungarian elites - business people etc allow him to be. Treating Hungary and in particular those elites as pariahs can be effective. But I'm not seeing that level of resolve amongst their European counterparts.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.
I don't understand?
'Privet' healthcare. Keeping a fence around the infected.
Atención: El coronavirus no acabará antes de verano. La previsión del Gobierno La ministra de Defensa, Margarita Robles, reconoce fallos del Gobierno en la gestión de la crisis
Realism from the Spanish government. Although none of us want to hear it. I suspect it won't just apply here either.
Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
Good for him. Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?
Lots of labs
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.
Germany does not have a private health system.
Germany has a healthcare system, where private operates provide the output and providers compeat for bissiness,
As always few systems are fully one or the other, and there is a lot of veriation, making it possible to argue lots of things.
but I think the forling is correct.
1) Germany uses market fores more than the UK. 2) Germany spends more on there heath cares system. (about 1.5% more iirc)
both of these will have an effect of the level of outcome. I think that 1) is the most significant, but accept others in good faith will disagree.
I am rewriting my will (never a better time...) Is it better to leave it all to Mrs Foxy, or to Fox jr, with Mrs Foxy getting control until her demise, from the point of view of inheritance tax?
No lawyer, but handing your house to junior whilst Mrs F continues to live in it opens up questions of paying rent for the use. Can't remember the posh legal word for this, but it is an issue with IHT.
Comments
Of course if you have space you could install a tank in your back garden, but the regulations are a bastard.
I was trying to emphasis my first point, that given the 20 ish day lag between diagnosis and death, that we should not all start to shown 'the lock down has worked' while keeping an open mind at this as to the real situation.
As far as I know I have no underlying health conditions, but my BMI is over 30. If asked I'd say I have no underlying conditions but if that is one in itself that would be good to know.
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1244629695129403392?s=21
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?
https://youtu.be/ZscdtrP4xZk
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
But then he doesn't have a tv show that craves viewers.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
Furthermore, it may not be the wisest thing to expel Orban, anyway.
Only half of Hungary is standing behind him, the other half has different views and needs friends outside of the country.
The rest of the EU can not exert a lot of pressure initially but may have more influence on the development in the long term with Hungary in the EU, rather than on its doorstep.
Across March my BMI has fallen by 2 points. Every little helps, might be in shape if this lasts much longer - not eating takeaways makes a massive difference.
Quitaly, surely?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
I can see it heading that way unfortunately.
This could leave those who have isolated for weeks into a permanent imprisonment in their own homes.
And we have the technology to enforce it.
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
Edit :- 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
But as you can see, massive variations in their estimates in the 95% credible interval.
It seems to be the Police communications teams being idiots. Has anyone actually been arrested for buying Easter eggs?
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
Brutal cops arrest NHS hero.
But felix makes a good point about the majority, we shouldn't go too far. Though with police powers you've got to be wary and nip it in the bud quickly.
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.
All the ones I could think of were ones where they were ordered to pay, and then ignored the order.
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!
have you got a link?
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
The idea that comes up in a DBS check is utterly appalling. The law should be changed, but I don't expect the Police to change the law.
Not sure if this is a good or bad result.
Keeping a fence around the infected.
Even now, yes. Particularly if some of the problems are leading to issues now, small or not.
Like many I'm in a place where usual procedures must be set aside and priorities rearranged or even discarded for a time. It doesnt mean concerns no longer exist or that things cannot be done in a proper way now. It's one reason parliament rightly pushed back on sunset clause wording.
I am rewriting my will (never a better time...)
Is it better to leave it all to Mrs Foxy, or to Fox jr, with Mrs Foxy getting control until her demise, from the point of view of inheritance tax?
Remember that your body will often try to avoid you losing weight at the start - increase exercise, good diet and watch what happens over a period of time.
You?
I am also quite capable of thinking about more than one thing at a time. I do not think that a dangerous virus is a good reason for allowing the police - or anyone else - to ignore the law, especially when they have been given all the powers they need. I think this not because of some abstract theory but because if the regulations brought in to protect us all - and especially people like me - are abused and brought into disrepute then that increases the risks for all of us.
La ministra de Defensa, Margarita Robles, reconoce fallos del Gobierno en la gestión de la crisis
Realism from the Spanish government. Although none of us want to hear it. I suspect it won't just apply here either.
As always few systems are fully one or the other, and there is a lot of veriation, making it possible to argue lots of things.
but I think the forling is correct.
1) Germany uses market fores more than the UK.
2) Germany spends more on there heath cares system. (about 1.5% more iirc)
both of these will have an effect of the level of outcome. I think that 1) is the most significant, but accept others in good faith will disagree.