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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michigan Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, the woman who’s got under

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Foxy said:

    Coronavirus, basically you don't want to be a fat man over 50.

    To be fair, even before the virus that wasn't a great option.

    Avoid those Easter eggs and hot cross buns!
    Slowly put the bun down and step away from the keyboard with your hands up.....

    In all seriousness, I haven't had a drink for a month, no chocolate bars. I wasn't massively overweight and work out 6 days a week, but still I am sure it isn't doing me any harm cutting back on those vices.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    On March 24 Nottinghamshire Police were driving around handing out Easter Eggs.

    https://twitter.com/nottspolice/status/1242512740926869505
    How do they decide who gets one? Do they make an eggxecutive decision?
    They just shell them out at random.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    No, but you can still get them from your usual County Lines supplier.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    isam said:

    Was Lord Sumption a Brexiteer or a blocker? Or neither? Heard the name before

    Dunno, but remarkably, Sumption’s father is called Anthony. It’s the sort of name that would make the PB pun nerds ecstatic!
    Was his college nickname 'Massive Ass'? :wink:
    I believe it was!
    That seems to suggest he was a Big A Sumption.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited March 2020
    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    The suggestion is rubbish. Everything after that in your posting is meaningless.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Just seen 40 magpies on a school playing field. How many verses does that song have?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    On March 24 Nottinghamshire Police were driving around handing out Easter Eggs.

    https://twitter.com/nottspolice/status/1242512740926869505
    How do they decide who gets one? Do they make an eggxecutive decision?
    They just shell them out at random.
    These Easter egg puns all seem hollow.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Just seen 40 magpies on a school playing field. How many verses does that song have?

    Only seven.

    But you could be an optimist and say it was eight multiples of five, suggesting a fuckload of silver is coming your way shortly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    Surely the idea that it's karma is related to https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696
    Ah yes, I had forgotten.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    Coronavirus, basically you don't want to be a fat man over 50.

    Well that's me fucked then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.

    It's fascinating how many 'interesting' stories the South China Morning Post manages to find which propose alternative theories about the origins of the virus, and you seem to be remarkably credulous about them...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    Surely the idea that it's karma is related to https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696
    Ah yes, I had forgotten.
    Excepting the published minutes of the government advisory committee - but who needs facts....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Scott_xP said:
    If I felt malicious, I could point out it’s bloody difficult to sell any items they *don’t* have in stock.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,838

    No, but you can still get them from your usual County Lines supplier.....
    I tried that but they were cutting the flour and mixing it with cocaine to cut costs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    No, but you can still get them from your usual County Lines supplier.....
    I tried that but they were cutting the flour and mixing it with cocaine to cut costs.
    County lines are becoming increasingly in bread?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    The government needs an exit strategy to the lockdown.

    They should be pulling out all the stops to find an effective treatment, setting up trials for as many drugs as possible.

    They should be getting a steady stream of masks to everyone and announce that they need to be worn outside the house for the foreseeable future. This would allow the lockdown to finish earlier and for it to be longer before another one is potentially needed in future.

    Currently they just seem to be waiting around to see what turns up.

    No, there is a huge amount of activity (including prospective and current clinical trials) going on.
    Clinical trials take time planning and setting up, otherwise they don't tell you anything. There are a couple already started which have an outside chance of producing positive results quite rapidly (and recruiting patients is sadly much easier than it was even a couple of weeks ago...) but nothing is guaranteed.

    'Getting a steady stream of masks to everyone' rather depends on being able to source them. World production capacity is simply nowhere near adequate to do so, with everyone trying to get what they need, and will take some time to ramp up.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    The PR people are scrambling to coddle the public as we writ. I imagine this error was to cut down on poaching! :smiley:
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.

    This adds further weight to my entirely-unsupported belief that I had a more benign version of what would later become CV19 in October, and that it subsequently evolved into the current lethal form in Wuhan a few months later.

    On the basis of this article, I am raising the estimated likelihood that this belief is correct from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 500.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Waiting for police hot cross bun and Easter egg dawn raids coming soon...
    These cant be the same police who claim they don't have enough resources - but have time for this shit?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:
    While a safety-first attitude is desirable in the present circumstances, it does look like a large number of petty tyrants have been empowered by this emergency and it will take some work to push back on this.
    The police and local council officials have absolutely no power to do this. A venue can be shut but if it is legally open it can sell what it is legally entitled to. Officials trying it on need to be told to do one.
    It's unfortunate, but in any situation where power is exercised, sloppiness at best and malevolence at worst sees the authorised use of power exceeded. A difficult situation doesnt mean exceeding authority should be ignored when it occurs. Too many police officers already have inflated views of their powers.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Pox parties, here we come.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    Surely the idea that it's karma is related to https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696
    Ah yes, I had forgotten.
    Excepting the published minutes of the government advisory committee - but who needs facts....
    That's why they left them out of the minutes?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    On March 24 Nottinghamshire Police were driving around handing out Easter Eggs.

    https://twitter.com/nottspolice/status/1242512740926869505
    How do they decide who gets one? Do they make an eggxecutive decision?
    They just shell them out at random.
    These Easter egg puns all seem hollow.
    But sweet...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    Surely the idea that it's karma is related to https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696
    Ah yes, I had forgotten.
    Excepting the published minutes of the government advisory committee - but who needs facts....
    I had forgotten the reporting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Superb interview on Radio 4 (World at One) with Jonathan Sumption, arguing a heterodox view of current events.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    And I wonder when people find out what the South Korea approach entails if they will be so keen for us to follow it?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    On March 24 Nottinghamshire Police were driving around handing out Easter Eggs.

    https://twitter.com/nottspolice/status/1242512740926869505
    How do they decide who gets one? Do they make an eggxecutive decision?
    They just shell them out at random.
    These Easter egg puns all seem hollow.
    We should stop, or the site will soon be choc-full of them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If I felt malicious, I could point out it’s bloody difficult to sell any items they *don’t* have in stock.
    There are quite a few people on eBay and Amazon Marketplace who can sell stock they don't have very successfully.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    The suggestion is rubbish. Everything after that in your posting is meaningless.
    https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696/photo/1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    *sigh* If Fox News goes pop as a result of being Sued to Death after deliberately lying, the supporters of Trump will simply blame the librul elite. Its their God Given Right to be lied to etc etc.

    We aren't that far behind. There are some absolute tools out there, harrumphing away with their scarlet faces desperately blaming their personal bogeymen to try and hide their sense of inadequacy. People have decided what the facts are and aren't going to stop passing off their opinions as facts no matter how flat-earther they look.
    The only people likely to have been misled are the supporters of Trump.
    Are they likely to sue ?

    If so, they are not going to be blaming the 'liberal elite'.
    My point was that Trump supporters WANT to be misled. They won't be the ones taking legal action, it will be the companies who have been hit by massive costs as a result of death and disruption caused by Fox. And if Fox goes away the crazies will go even crazier now that their "truth" has been suppressed.
    Consequential damage is a very high standard under NY law (rightly so). I doubt a company will be able to price that (a) they solely relied on FoxNews (b) FoxNews was negligent and (c) Fox is liable for consequential damages.

    If Fox is only due for direct damage (again IMV unlikely but IANAUSL) then it will be fine
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    2023. Parliament will keep it up for original sunset clause period on bases of potential re outbreaks next year, face complaints but government will drag it out beyond period if they can.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    It is Mr Designated Survivor doing the press conference. Is it wise to let him out at all?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Every physical contract in the world is going to pretty much under Force Majeure right now.
    Fucked.

    I reviewed my MAC clauses last week. US lawyers believe in belts and braces 😆

    I even had pandemics specifically excluded from MAC in a contract from last August
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    The government needs an exit strategy to the lockdown.

    They should be pulling out all the stops to find an effective treatment, setting up trials for as many drugs as possible.

    They should be getting a steady stream of masks to everyone and announce that they need to be worn outside the house for the foreseeable future. This would allow the lockdown to finish earlier and for it to be longer before another one is potentially needed in future.

    Currently they just seem to be waiting around to see what turns up.

    Then you are misinformed . Try following the news.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    And I wonder when people find out what the South Korea approach entails if they will be so keen for us to follow it?
    Whilst the pandemic is on I'm happy to be able to justify all my movement to the authorities if need be, if it saves lives. Derbyshire police are clearly overreaching though with unnecessary stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.

    It's fascinating how many 'interesting' stories the South China Morning Post manages to find which propose alternative theories about the origins of the virus, and you seem to be remarkably credulous about them...
    Hardly - hence my suggestion that it not be over-interpreted.
    Are you saying the US NIH director didn't say that the findings reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin ?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Barnesian said:

    Today's data

    On reported deaths, signs of a slowing of rate of growth in Italy, Spain and France, but not yet in UK, US and Germany.
    On reported cases, slight sign of slowing of rate of growth in most countries.




    Whenever I see your name, I always read it mentally as 'Barneezian', even though I know it should logically be 'Barnzian'.

    And that's all I wanted to say about that :smile:
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    Except that appears to be fake news - according to the published minutes of the committee of scientists advising the government.

    But, like Peston on the budget, an anon source reporting something that another anon source thinks he heard is much more accurate. Or not.
    Haters gonna hate. There have been a few regrettable comments about the Cummings illness on here today. As I said earlier - it reflects much more on the commenter than the victim.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Endillion said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:
    The Government is gonna have to be careful about public morale if it carries on like this.
    On March 24 Nottinghamshire Police were driving around handing out Easter Eggs.

    https://twitter.com/nottspolice/status/1242512740926869505
    How do they decide who gets one? Do they make an eggxecutive decision?
    They just shell them out at random.
    These Easter egg puns all seem hollow.
    We should stop, or the site will soon be choc-full of them.
    Truly the country is suffering under the yolk of a police state :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Pulpstar said:

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    And I wonder when people find out what the South Korea approach entails if they will be so keen for us to follow it?
    Whilst the pandemic is on I'm happy to be able to justify all my movement to the authorities if need be, if it saves lives. Derbyshire police are clearly overreaching though with unnecessary stuff.
    Spooks monitoring my movement would be in for an exciting time...bedroom to office, to kitchen, to office....
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    I see some British dickhead flew into South Korea, didn't follow the rules of self isolation, has CV and probably infected a load of people as he thought it would be ok to go and play putt putt golf.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Barnesian said:

    Today's data

    On reported deaths, signs of a slowing of rate of growth in Italy, Spain and France, but not yet in UK, US and Germany.
    On reported cases, slight sign of slowing of rate of growth in most countries.




    South Korea is missing from those graphs, which is a real pity as they should be the modal everybody is trying to emulate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:
    I guess you’d be happy with just over 50% on a test then...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    Except that appears to be fake news - according to the published minutes of the committee of scientists advising the government.

    But, like Peston on the budget, an anon source reporting something that another anon source thinks he heard is much more accurate. Or not.
    Haters gonna hate. There have been a few regrettable comments about the Cummings illness on here today. As I said earlier - it reflects much more on the commenter than the victim.
    Nothing I said was in any way hateful.
    You do remember that initially the government spoke of trying to create 'herd immunity'?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    edited March 2020

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    The suggestion is rubbish. Everything after that in your posting is meaningless.
    https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696/photo/1
    Which has the slight problem of being at variance with the published minutes of the government scientific advisory committee.

    So we have the published statements and actions of named individuals vs an anon source who heard from someone that...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Was Lord Sumption a Brexiteer or a blocker? Or neither? Heard the name before

    Lord Chief Justice (so neither)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    It may cause an apparent spike in figures.

    I dont think it can be COVID19 community deaths, as they are not being tested.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.

    That is wrong, virus or no virus.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Coronavirus, basically you don't want to be a fat man over 50.

    To be fair, even before the virus that wasn't a great option.

    Avoid those Easter eggs and hot cross buns!
    So fat men under 50 are OK?

    'Asking for a friend'
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On topic: So not the Gretchen from Real Housewives. Disappointing.

    I did that joke yesterday Sandy

    With a photo and everything 😊
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    The suggestion is rubbish. Everything after that in your posting is meaningless.
    https://twitter.com/cooperphil156/status/1244558876625821696/photo/1
    Which has the slight problem of being at variance with the published minutes of the government scientific advisory committee.

    So we have the published statements and actions of named individuals vs an anon source who heard from someone that...
    The article says that it was said at a private engagement so it wouldn't be minuted as an official meeting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Was Lord Sumption a Brexiteer or a blocker? Or neither? Heard the name before

    Lord Chief Justice (so neither)
    Wouldn't that make him an alpha blocker, as opposed to all the beta blockers... ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.

    It's fascinating how many 'interesting' stories the South China Morning Post manages to find which propose alternative theories about the origins of the virus, and you seem to be remarkably credulous about them...
    Hardly - hence my suggestion that it not be over-interpreted.
    Are you saying the US NIH director didn't say that the findings reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin ?
    The SCMP article fundamentally misrepresents the findings. In fact the paper referred to states: "Estimates of the timing of the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 made with current sequence data point to emergence of the virus in late November 2019 to early December 2019, compatible with the earliest retrospectively confirmed cases."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Charles said:

    RobD said:
    I guess you’d be happy with just over 50% on a test then...
    If the test were marked as a zero-sum game in which you were competing against all the other examinees for the same finite pool of marks, then it would be a fantastic outcome...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Six further people in Scotland diagnosed with Covid-19 have died, taking the total to 47, Nicola Sturgeon has announced.

    Across Scotland, 1,563 people have tested positive for the virus as of 9am on Monday, up 179 from 1,384 on Sunday.

    It comes as the SEC in Glasgow is to be turned into a temporary NHS hospital to help cope with the coronavirus outbreak.

    Speaking at a briefing at the Scottish Government headquarters in Edinburgh, the First Minister said it could be operational within a fortnight and will initially have 300 beds.

    She added that in the fours hours since a Scottish Government campaign for volunteers was launched 10,000 people have registered their interest in taking part.

    Ms Sturgeon also announced that several NHS screening programmes will be suspended across Scotland. These include breast, cervical and bowel screening.

    She said the decision "was not taken lightly" and was based on recommendations from the chief medical officer Dr Catherine Calderwood and NHS National Services Scotland.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    The problem with these stats is that if you die from a non-related heart attack and you then test positive for Covid 19 it is counted as a Covid 19 death
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.

    That is wrong, virus or no virus.
    Morons with badges are among the most dangerous things known to mankind. Not least because they bring into disrepute the public interest reason why powers were granted in the first place.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,557
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Was Lord Sumption a Brexiteer or a blocker? Or neither? Heard the name before

    Lord Chief Justice (so neither)
    Wouldn't that make him an alpha blocker, as opposed to all the beta blockers... ?
    Lord Sumption was not the LCJ, he was a Judge of the Supreme Court.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,000

    Nigelb said:
    Certified to reenter society and buy Easter eggs.
    On the basis of a March visit one year the Germans do seem to go big on Easter, particularly the bunny aspect.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    It will create an apparent spike in death rates I presume and get the hacks all agitated again for no good reason.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Coronavirus, basically you don't want to be a fat man over 50.

    I would never have thought being diagnosed with diabetes at 53 would be a good thing, but it’s motivated me to go on a low carb, low calorie diet and adhere to a daily exercise regime. I’ve lost a stone and a half in six weeks and haven’t felt as fit in years. Whether it’ll be enough when I inevitably catch the coronavirus, who can say, but I feel way more ready for it than I would have at the start of the year.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.

    That is wrong, virus or no virus.

    Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian


    https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    Cyclefree said:

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.

    That is wrong, virus or no virus.
    Morons with badges are among the most dangerous things known to mankind. Not least because they bring into disrepute the public interest reason why powers were granted in the first place.
    Quite - all the people who've twisted Health and Safety into their way of being a jobsworth have done vast amounts of damage to real health and safety, for example

    They should be rounded up, blindfolded, and left to wander round a building full of exposed wires, un-barriered open lift shafts etc...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020
    This looks like a good tip from Mike.

    I'm increasingly taking his view that something will have to be done about Biden.

    In other news, a good morning of intensive writing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting story.

    Coronavirus: pathogen could have been spreading in humans for years, study says
    Virus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in Wuhan, according to research by an international team of scientists
    Findings significantly reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin, director of the US National Institute of Health says

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

    I wouldn't be tempted to over-interpret it, but it does demonstrate the considerable amount of uncertainty which surrounds everything about this virus.

    It's fascinating how many 'interesting' stories the South China Morning Post manages to find which propose alternative theories about the origins of the virus, and you seem to be remarkably credulous about them...
    Hardly - hence my suggestion that it not be over-interpreted.
    Are you saying the US NIH director didn't say that the findings reduce the possibility of the virus having a laboratory origin ?
    The SCMP article fundamentally misrepresents the findings. In fact the paper referred to states: "Estimates of the timing of the most recent common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 made with current sequence data point to emergence of the virus in late November 2019 to early December 2019, compatible with the earliest retrospectively confirmed cases."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
    But what about this quote - is it fabricated ?
    Dr Francis Collins, director of the US National Institute of Health, who was not involved in the research, said the study suggested a possible scenario in which the coronavirus crossed from animals into humans before it became capable of causing disease in people.
    “Then, as a result of gradual evolutionary changes over years or perhaps decades, the virus eventually gained the ability to spread from human to human and cause serious, often life-threatening disease,” he said in an article published on the institute’s website on Thursday....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    Your last sentence is savagely offensive to people who actually suffered at the hands of Heydrich et al and represents another example of the "literally Hitler" garbage that is infesting political life at the moment.
    Whatever! Many view Cummings as little short of pure evil and their response to this news is likely to be 'Serve the bastard right' or 'he got his just desserts'. I have no reason to say that - but quite a few people do!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?

    Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.

    It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.

    That is wrong, virus or no virus.
    Their attempts at justification make me think even less of them

    https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
    There's nothing wrong with that Tweet (which is from a different force isn't it?)

    Parents need to be making sure not just that they stay at home but their children, especially teenagers, do so too. We shouldn't have gangs of youth up to mischief on the streets while everyone responsible is at home, because their parents aren't keeping an eye on them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Foxy said:



    I think these are the current UK figures.

    BMI over 30 looks bad, as does age. Figures in third column are other viral pneumonia for comparison.

    Good (From a personal perspective) to see < 25 and 25 - 30 are the same outcome.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    ydoethur said:

    Just seen 40 magpies on a school playing field. How many verses does that song have?

    Only seven.

    But you could be an optimist and say it was eight multiples of five, suggesting a fuckload of silver is coming your way shortly.
    I like your thinking. If I can tailor the package I'll have 5x(joy+gold). I'll keep one and share out the other 4.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,557
    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    A genuinely useful figure would be the total number of UK deaths daily/weekly whatever, and to compare them with figures of the same period in the previous few years. Does anyone know if this is actually available?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    The problem with these stats is that if you die from a non-related heart attack and you then test positive for Covid 19 it is counted as a Covid 19 death
    I think we all get that but it shouldn't be used as an excuse by the Far Right to push the hoax-conspiracy angle, which it has been.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Was Lord Sumption a Brexiteer or a blocker? Or neither? Heard the name before

    Lord Chief Justice (so neither)
    Wouldn't that make him an alpha blocker, as opposed to all the beta blockers... ?
    Lord Sumption was not the LCJ, he was a Judge of the Supreme Court.

    OK, so I had to struggle for the pun.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:
    Just small shops I notice.

    There does seem to be some confusion around the rules of what can and can't be sold. The local clothes shops and off licences are closed, but Tesco can sell clothes and booze no problem.
    M & S clothes section was closed off yesterday, only its foodstore was open.

    Off licenses are still open
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It has been suggested that it was Cummings idea to try the mathematically inappropriate idea of creating 'herd immunity' by letting people get Covid-19. Even though that was abandoned when someone worked out what that would mean, it is generous of Dom and Boris to volunteer to help in a small way to increase Britain's herd immunity.
    Except that appears to be fake news - according to the published minutes of the committee of scientists advising the government.

    But, like Peston on the budget, an anon source reporting something that another anon source thinks he heard is much more accurate. Or not.
    Haters gonna hate. There have been a few regrettable comments about the Cummings illness on here today. As I said earlier - it reflects much more on the commenter than the victim.
    Nothing I said was in any way hateful.
    You do remember that initially the government spoke of trying to create 'herd immunity'?
    Don't remember naming you or anyone for that matter. Of course if the cap fits, etc. TBF I was referring to earlier posters but even if the 'herd immunity' thing was accurate, which it wasn't why on earth did you post it in relation to someone catching a lethal disease?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2020
    [deleted]
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Something to think about when looking into the future

    https://twitter.com/matociquala/status/1244604965148114946

    Exactly what will not be of interest to consumers when things start up again..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF666 said:

    Interesting read on vested interests in the prediction game

    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/03/30/soap-opera-science/


    "Here’s a remarkable story that no-one in the media or social media has picked up on (although you can bet that everyone in the field knows).

    So we have two epidemiological teams, one at Imperial, and one at Oxford, with differing ideas about Covid-19."

    "Now, do you accept the traditional image of scientists as sober, serious, disinterested seekers of truth? Or do you have more of a Biscuit Factory sort of view of them, where quite a lot of them are very flawed human beings, egotistical shits bent on climbing the greasy pole and treading on people to get to the top?"

    "let’s take a bit of a closer look at the Imperial-Oxford situation. I’m only going to pick out a few details now, because the full story is very large and I don’t know it all, plus a lot of it is very murky and undocumented...."

    The boys play while LSTHM just does the work behind the scenes.

    Ferguson is very good at getting his face on the media. Remember he was the guy who said up to 400k then up to 250k now less than 20k.

    John Edmunds by contrast is just too sensible to make a good story for TV (he was the bloke who took down that Californian nutter)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    algarkirk said:

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    A genuinely useful figure would be the total number of UK deaths daily/weekly whatever, and to compare them with figures of the same period in the previous few years. Does anyone know if this is actually available?

    Those are the ones I linked to, it's just that there is a time lag in reporting so the 2020 ones aren't complete (to within 5% of the final total) until at least a couple of months later.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    What? You really are beyond the pale. Absolutely disgraceful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    Your last sentence is savagely offensive to people who actually suffered at the hands of Heydrich et al and represents another example of the "literally Hitler" garbage that is infesting political life at the moment.
    Whatever! Many view Cummings as little short of pure evil and their response to this news is likely to be 'Serve the bastard right' or 'he got his just desserts'. I have no reason to say that - but quite a few people do!
    Ah yes, the "I don't think this, but many people do" cop out - either man up and and have the view or don't repeat it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    algarkirk said:

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    A genuinely useful figure would be the total number of UK deaths daily/weekly whatever, and to compare them with figures of the same period in the previous few years. Does anyone know if this is actually available?

    That's the data Quincel posted, with his noted caveats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020
    God's representative on earth gets automatic immunity
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Foxy said:

    Quincel said:

    Ultimately the effect of coronavirus is perhaps best seen in the excess deaths it causes overall instead of trying to track each specific patient. I thought I'd look at the total weekly deaths in the UK, and was surprised to see that 2020 has been below the 5 year average for virtually every week so far this year. It turns out that only 75% of deaths are registered within a week of mortality, and over 5% take a month or more. So annoyingly it's not going to be comparable for ages yet. Here's the figures so far nonetheless, I guess it also means that if a new week's figures are even slightly above the past average as soon as they come out then that's much worse than it looks.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


    There is some news on that:

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1244595145280032768?s=19
    Cheers. I assume that relates to COVID-19 deaths only, but I may be wrong.
    It may cause an apparent spike in figures.

    I dont think it can be COVID19 community deaths, as they are not being tested.
    The User Guide for the total deaths I linked to/charted mentioned that suicides are particularly slow to be reported (due to coroners inquests), surely the total deaths figure therefore must already include non-hospital deaths?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    What? You really are beyond the pale. Absolutely disgraceful.
    Pot calling the kettle black again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    I think these are the current UK figures.

    BMI over 30 looks bad, as does age. Figures in third column are other viral pneumonia for comparison.

    Until I contracted severe pneumonia a couple of years ago, I rather naively thought that only oldies died of it. I didn't know there was a somewhat significant death rate for even under 50s (obviously column 3 is showing those that needed critical care, but still).
    ARDS is a particularly nasty pneumonia.
    Isn’t pneumonia just a symptom of ARDS?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065


    Whenever I see your name, I always read it mentally as 'Barneezian', even though I know it should logically be 'Barnzian'.

    And that's all I wanted to say about that :smile:

    It's like the French trying to pronounce Bayesian.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    Your last sentence is savagely offensive to people who actually suffered at the hands of Heydrich et al and represents another example of the "literally Hitler" garbage that is infesting political life at the moment.
    Whatever! Many view Cummings as little short of pure evil and their response to this news is likely to be 'Serve the bastard right' or 'he got his just desserts'. I have no reason to say that - but quite a few people do!
    Ah yes, the "I don't think this, but many people do" cop out - either man up and and have the view or don't repeat it.
    The left have to have a backroom Tory as a bogey man. Remember Andy Coulson, who they kept badgering until he got locked up. Jeffrey Archer was another one.

    I expect Cummings will end up in jail somehow...they always seem to get their man in the end.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Not the first time Justin has had a weird fascination with wishing death on political figures.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. But to be a Remainer was very heaven!
    Several former Spads will be pleased. Karma again!
    Leaving aside for a moment the issue of taking joy at another's misfortune - it happens, it's not pleasant, but it'd take a bigger person than I to admit to never having done so - I'm not quite seeing how someone allegedly being a bit of a shit is subject to karma if they suffer some unrelated medical issue. I guess karma could include any general poor fortune, but to be proportionate and appropriate karma for someone in that situation would be being fired in disgrace, not just having a personal health issue - they might not regard that suffering as a karmic at all, anymore than a horrible dictator getting ill at the end of a thirty year reign of terror would be getting karma.
    It would hardly be surprising if the lady frogmarched out of Downing Street by the Police - following orders from Cummings -derived satisfaction from any illfortune he suffered - including his demise were that to come about. I was certainly not the first to compare him with Reinhard Heydrich.
    Your last sentence is savagely offensive to people who actually suffered at the hands of Heydrich et al and represents another example of the "literally Hitler" garbage that is infesting political life at the moment.
    Whatever! Many view Cummings as little short of pure evil and their response to this news is likely to be 'Serve the bastard right' or 'he got his just desserts'. I have no reason to say that - but quite a few people do!
    Ah yes, the "I don't think this, but many people do" cop out - either man up and and have the view or don't repeat it.
    No - but I can certainly empathise. Were I in that lady's position, it would certainly be how I would feel.
This discussion has been closed.