politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michigan Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, the woman who’s got under
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That's why I suggested buying the whole filling station.Fenster said:
Who was that Tory MP who advised storing petrol in your wooden shed? Brilliant idea that.ydoethur said:
There's only one solution.felix said:Jeez - Crude at $20 a barrel and we're not allowed to drive!
If you have the spare cash, buy a filling station, and keep it all for yourself.
'Cos oil is never going to be this cheap again.
Of course if you have space you could install a tank in your back garden, but the regulations are a bastard.0 -
err, yes it would, tomorows numbers may be bad for that reason,Martin_Kinsella said:
But won't this go up tomorrow as they are starting to measure Covid19 deaths in the community as well ?BigRich said:
if it is than it would suggest that the scoshale distancing, and other protections that people where doing spontaneously before the 'lock down' became policy. had the desired result, and therefor the knockdown may not have been needed.eadric said:
The 2nd decrease in 2 consecutive days.ABZ said:Suggests there have been 180 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK up to 5pm last night: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-159-people-die-after-testing-positive-in-england-11965742
If this is a trend it is fantastic news.
sadly, However it may just be that people with 'flu lick systems' can now stay home form work and don't feel the need to go to hospital, and are therefor not being tested?
Don't get me wrong it is great this is reducing especially as it is on a consistent measure.
I was trying to emphasis my first point, that given the 20 ish day lag between diagnosis and death, that we should not all start to shown 'the lock down has worked' while keeping an open mind at this as to the real situation.0 -
The much mocked 260 peak could have arrived early!eadric said:
The 2nd decrease in 2 consecutive days.ABZ said:Suggests there have been 180 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK up to 5pm last night: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-159-people-die-after-testing-positive-in-england-11965742
If this is a trend it is fantastic news.0 -
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On facebook right now there are pictures of nurses in Southend wearing bin bags on their heads to cover their hair - they do appear to have aprons though0
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I think that is highly unlikely.isam said:
The much mocked 260 peak could have arrived early!eadric said:
The 2nd decrease in 2 consecutive days.ABZ said:Suggests there have been 180 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK up to 5pm last night: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-159-people-die-after-testing-positive-in-england-11965742
If this is a trend it is fantastic news.0 -
Francis Maude.Fenster said:
Who was that Tory MP who advised storing petrol in your wooden shed? Brilliant idea that.ydoethur said:
There's only one solution.felix said:Jeez - Crude at $20 a barrel and we're not allowed to drive!
If you have the spare cash, buy a filling station, and keep it all for yourself.
'Cos oil is never going to be this cheap again.0 -
Good question.LostPassword said:
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
As far as I know I have no underlying health conditions, but my BMI is over 30. If asked I'd say I have no underlying conditions but if that is one in itself that would be good to know.0 -
Red Bull motorsport boss Helmut Marko says he advised his drivers to become infected with coronavirus with the Formula 1 season yet to get going.0
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If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:0 -
I defer to Foxy on the medical expertise, but would have thought that the less dead weight you are carrying at time of infection, the less work your lungs will have to do to see you through?Philip_Thompson said:
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?IanB2 said:
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.1 -
I think it meant pretty serious conditions, like having leukaemia, being a bad diabetic, having chemoLostPassword said:
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.0 -
I would hold fire until the DoH announce todays figures officially.isam said:
The much mocked 260 peak could have arrived early!eadric said:
The 2nd decrease in 2 consecutive days.ABZ said:Suggests there have been 180 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK up to 5pm last night: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-another-159-people-die-after-testing-positive-in-england-11965742
If this is a trend it is fantastic news.0 -
Of which ~7% will need ICU (~630) if we are similar to other countries.Scott_xP said:0 -
Poland will veto that surely?not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:0 -
For measures taken in a genuine emergency which have not yet been abused? Seems improbable even if the measures look dreadful.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:1 -
Piers Morgan vs Peter Hitchens now on Twitter
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1244629695129403392?s=210 -
If the EU doesn't act, then I am glad we have left. And I speak as a Remainer.Philip_Thompson said:
Poland will veto that surely?not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:1 -
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?
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Yes, it does. Prof Roy Taylor has done a lot of interesting work on how crash dieting improves insulin responsee. Insulin is quite a driver of chronic inflammation and blood pressure as well. Improved parameters in 7 days in his study.Philip_Thompson said:
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?IanB2 said:
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
https://youtu.be/ZscdtrP4xZk1 -
Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?1 -
One question. We know that diabetes and high BP are not good if you catch this virus. However, what are the survival odds for this group - presumably not all end up in ICU and then die. Asking for a friend.
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With Itexit looking more likely by the day and Hungary, the EU is in an awful mess.0
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as David Starkey said "we can be sure this isn't the bubonic plague"isam said:Piers Morgan vs Peter Hitchens now on Twitter
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1244629695129403392?s=21
But then he doesn't have a tv show that craves viewers.
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Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?0 -
Neither are going anywhere, I'd put good money on that.rottenborough said:With Itexit looking more likely by the day and Hungary, the EU is in an awful mess.
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They are in the footnote here:LostPassword said:
Does anyone know if "underlying health conditions" includes things like a BMI > 30, or smoking, or is it only something with a formal diagnosis?FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
I think that is ~180 deaths UK wide.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
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I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.0 -
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?0 -
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.0 -
Given there is no legal provision in the treaties to 'expel' a member state, this could only ever be a political process, and that is indeed improbable.kle4 said:
For measures taken in a genuine emergency which have not yet been abused? Seems improbable even if the measures look dreadful.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
Furthermore, it may not be the wisest thing to expel Orban, anyway.
Only half of Hungary is standing behind him, the other half has different views and needs friends outside of the country.
The rest of the EU can not exert a lot of pressure initially but may have more influence on the development in the long term with Hungary in the EU, rather than on its doorstep.1 -
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?1 -
Good to know thanks.Foxy said:
Yes, it does. Prof Roy Taylor has done a lot of interesting work on how crash dieting improves insulin responsee. Insulin is quite a driver of chronic inflammation and blood pressure as well. Improved parameters in 7 days in his study.Philip_Thompson said:
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?IanB2 said:
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
https://youtu.be/ZscdtrP4xZk
Across March my BMI has fallen by 2 points. Every little helps, might be in shape if this lasts much longer - not eating takeaways makes a massive difference.0 -
Sounds like a s*** stirring more of it.isam said:Piers Morgan vs Peter Hitchens now on Twitter
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1244629695129403392?s=210 -
Mr. Borough, Italexit?
Quitaly, surely?5 -
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?0 -
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less soCyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY0 -
Correct - Hungary gets a free pass during the crisis and Italy has transferred patients to Germany today. The solidarity argument for now is winning out.kle4 said:
Neither are going anywhere, I'd put good money on that.rottenborough said:With Itexit looking more likely by the day and Hungary, the EU is in an awful mess.
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I’m looking at where Italy was on 16th March and comparing it to where we are today. Boris’ critics were eager to make this comparison had things turned out differentlyTheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?1 -
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.1 -
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.2 -
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.Foxy said:
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.0 -
Vs 2158 I thinkPhilip_Thompson said:
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?0 -
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
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I very much hope that libertarian Boris will not allow this to slide towards a state where a certificate has to be be produced showing antibody test in order to be allowed out of the isolation rules.TGOHF666 said:
as David Starkey said "we can be sure this isn't the bubonic plague"isam said:Piers Morgan vs Peter Hitchens now on Twitter
https://twitter.com/clarkemicah/status/1244629695129403392?s=21
But then he doesn't have a tv show that craves viewers.
I can see it heading that way unfortunately.
This could leave those who have isolated for weeks into a permanent imprisonment in their own homes.
And we have the technology to enforce it.0 -
I suspect that if the powers are not rescinded in the recovery phase then the punishment would be financial.ydoethur said:
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.0 -
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
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I think the Imperial modelling say mean of their estimates for Italy is ~10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
Edit :- 9.8% [3.2%-26%]
But as you can see, massive variations in their estimates in the 95% credible interval.0 -
I am not agreeing with it, but innocent makes sense in the parallel they are drawing.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
It seems to be the Police communications teams being idiots. Has anyone actually been arrested for buying Easter eggs?0 -
Classic Domingo.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
0 -
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.0 -
I think that depends on how you count the 8 hour day that we had about a week ago.isam said:
Vs 2158 I thinkPhilip_Thompson said:
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?
0 -
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.isam said:
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less soCyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.3 -
Today's figures are for yesterday's date. So 1809.isam said:
Vs 2158 I thinkPhilip_Thompson said:
UK's in 1415 today - versus 1809.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Not sure what you are looking at, it seems to me we have slightly extended the 14 days referred to to 15 (and a little bit) - waiting on UK-wide figures to confirm.isam said:
66% of Italy ‘at the same stage’
Three cheers for the government?0 -
Point of order: the French have cheerfully some paid fines for years.ydoethur said:
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.0 -
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.1 -
I think Quitaly sounds much better, personally.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, Italexit?
Quitaly, surely?0 -
Give it a go. We promise to rally round to make you a civil liberty iconFoxy said:
I am not agreeing with it, but innocent makes sense in the parallel they are drawing.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
It seems to be the Police communications teams being idiots. Has anyone actually been arrested for buying Easter eggs?
Brutal cops arrest NHS hero.
But felix makes a good point about the majority, we shouldn't go too far. Though with police powers you've got to be wary and nip it in the bud quickly.0 -
15% [3.7%-41%]SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.0 -
Really? Do you have examples?rcs1000 said:
Point of order: the French have cheerfully some paid fines for years.ydoethur said:
The idea the EU will willingly expel a member for something so minor as criminal behaviour is up there with the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was fit to be Leader of the Opposition.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
The French have been cheerfully breaking every rule in sight for years as it suited them and never had to so much as pay a fine.
But ultimately, the EU will probably believe this shows nation states cannot be trusted to follow rules (or at least, be discreet about breaking them) and the solution to this is to remove criminal justice powers and states of emergency from nation states to the EU Parliament. Orban should be careful what he wishes for.
All the ones I could think of were ones where they were ordered to pay, and then ignored the order.0 -
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?Cyclefree said:
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.isam said:
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less soCyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!0 -
Well said. Don't let a couple of idiots (Police or otherwise) be interpreted as everyone acting that way.felix said:
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.1 -
As I have said on various thread headers - most recently here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/ - the police are simply not fit for purpose.TGOHF666 said:
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "1 -
What about Sweden?SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
have you got a link?0 -
Ladies and gentlemen, I think we have a winner for typo of the year...BigRich said:
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?Cyclefree said:
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.isam said:
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less soCyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!
1 -
To be fair he's had it himself and it wasn't too bad. At least he thinks he's had it. He thought it was a cold at the time.FrancisUrquhart said:Red Bull motorsport boss Helmut Marko says he advised his drivers to become infected with coronavirus with the Formula 1 season yet to get going.
0 -
Big deposit needed I think but go for it.BigRich said:
The 'Police and crime commiseration' elections have been delayed till next year, right?Cyclefree said:
Lord Sumption is right. We are still a nation governed by laws. The police are there to enforce the law not do what the hell they feel like. And the law does not forbid either the selling or buying of Easter eggs. Nor does it stop many of the other things the police are trying to stop.isam said:
Yourself and @AlastairMeeks may appreciate this... others less soCyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHE3OerDKEY
If they don’t stop it, someone is going to challenge them legally, the courts will rule against them and the police will look like berks - again.
I am now wondering about standing as a libertarian in those elections!0 -
3.1% [0.85%-8.4%]BigRich said:
What about Sweden?SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
have you got a link?
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf0 -
As I said yesterday, Imperial are the Oxford of London.FrancisUrquhart said:
15% [3.7%-41%]SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.0 -
Is it the Police's fault? Isn't the "non-crime hate incident" bullshit set upon the Police by the Politicians and Courts not the Police.Cyclefree said:
As I have said on various thread headers - most recently here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/ - the police are simply not fit for purpose.TGOHF666 said:
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
The idea that comes up in a DBS check is utterly appalling. The law should be changed, but I don't expect the Police to change the law.1 -
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.1 -
Indeed - ironic that the person on here most critical of the 'jobsworth' mentality among public officials needs a long look in the mirror.Philip_Thompson said:
Well said. Don't let a couple of idiots (Police or otherwise) be interpreted as everyone acting that way.felix said:
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.0 -
My swabs came back negative today. False negative or just another virus? Time will tell, I suppose. Back to work later this week.Chris said:
To be fair he's had it himself and it wasn't too bad. At least he thinks he's had it. He thought it was a cold at the time.FrancisUrquhart said:Red Bull motorsport boss Helmut Marko says he advised his drivers to become infected with coronavirus with the Formula 1 season yet to get going.
Not sure if this is a good or bad result.0 -
I don't understand?northern_monkey said:
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
0 -
And to think I nearly considered accepting an offer to do my PhD there, on the basis they offered me more money....TheScreamingEagles said:
As I said yesterday, Imperial are the Oxford of London.FrancisUrquhart said:
15% [3.7%-41%]SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
I am a bit concerned just how wide the upper / lower bound spread is on their model estimates are.
I mean those numbers are the difference between bloody hell if it is only the low single digits who have it, then 50-60-70% of the population do get it, this is going to wipe out masses of people....through to well they aren't far off herd immunity.0 -
You'd have to be even more green to attempt rocket.Nigelb said:
Frisee would be the absolute endive.Theuniondivvie said:On a lighter note.
https://twitter.com/Kcco_in_Nc/status/1244205527929929729?s=200 -
Quality post!rcs1000 said:
I think Quitaly sounds much better, personally.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, Italexit?
Quitaly, surely?0 -
FFS - really! This is your priority? Now?Cyclefree said:
As I have said on various thread headers - most recently here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/ - the police are simply not fit for purpose.TGOHF666 said:
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "0 -
ThanksFrancisUrquhart said:
3.1% [0.85%-8.4%]BigRich said:
What about Sweden?SandyRentool said:
They say 15% in SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
I think the Imperial modelling say 10%.BigRich said:
Using the same method, how many people in Italy have it? presumably well over 5%SandyRentool said:Latest Imperial model puts UK infection level at 2.7% or 1.8 million.
Rentool method puts it at between 1.1 million and 2.2 million.
Just hand me the Nobel now, eh?
if so Italy may get to herd immunity long before we where expecting.
have you got a link?
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
0 -
Germany does not have a private health system.felix said:
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.Foxy said:
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.1 -
Yew will get it if you read the first post carefully.BigRich said:
I don't understand?northern_monkey said:
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.1 -
I think you're correct. Focus on eating good, nourishing food. A good weight is a by product of being healthy, not the other way around.Philip_Thompson said:
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?IanB2 said:
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.0 -
'Privet' healthcare.BigRich said:
I don't understand?northern_monkey said:
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Keeping a fence around the infected.1 -
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.felix said:
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.2 -
As has been noted often all life doesnt stop even in an emergency nor does it mean nothing else matters. The government and police are rightly being given plenty of leeway right now, but not Orban level carte blanche, and existing issues can be mostly sidelined but need not be forgotten about.felix said:
FFS - really! This is your priority? Now?Cyclefree said:
As I have said on various thread headers - most recently here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/ - the police are simply not fit for purpose.TGOHF666 said:
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
Even now, yes. Particularly if some of the problems are leading to issues now, small or not.
Like many I'm in a place where usual procedures must be set aside and priorities rearranged or even discarded for a time. It doesnt mean concerns no longer exist or that things cannot be done in a proper way now. It's one reason parliament rightly pushed back on sunset clause wording.0 -
LOL Sorry Dyslexia stryks again!Nigelb said:
'Privet' healthcare.BigRich said:
I don't understand?northern_monkey said:
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Keeping a fence around the infected.0 -
Question for PB lawyers:
I am rewriting my will (never a better time...)
Is it better to leave it all to Mrs Foxy, or to Fox jr, with Mrs Foxy getting control until her demise, from the point of view of inheritance tax?0 -
Government advice can sometimes be just plain wrong about what the law is, even when it makes sense.Cyclefree said:
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.felix said:
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.0 -
Crash weight loss in general doesn't work - adjust your lifestyle for less calories and increase your exercise. That keeps the pounds off.Luckyguy1983 said:
I think you're correct. Focus on eating good, nourishing food. A good weight is a by product of being healthy, not the other way around.Philip_Thompson said:
Does a crash diet provide health bonuses that quickly? Won't it be too late to really impact this time but still be worth doing?IanB2 said:
Basically, it you are overweight, now is the ideal time for a crash diet. With the spinoff benefit of leaving more food for everyone else.FrancisUrquhart said:As posted down thread, but from Guardian...
The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency.
It is noticeable that every day now we do get some really young people passing away. Most have underlying health conditions, but still.
I'm trying to get into shape anyway and have found quarantine has helped this. It's easier to find motivation to cook properly when you have the time and no pressure to get a takeaway due to lack of time. I've lost a stone this month but if I contract the virus then not sure what difference if any that will make.
Remember that your body will often try to avoid you losing weight at the start - increase exercise, good diet and watch what happens over a period of time.
0 -
My priority is not catching this virus. Which is why I have been self-isolated for over 10 days now and not been out of the house.felix said:
FFS - really! This is your priority? Now?Cyclefree said:
As I have said on various thread headers - most recently here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/01/17/a-toxic-culture/ - the police are simply not fit for purpose.TGOHF666 said:
Well they have to do something to fill the timeCyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/05/police-forces-record-thousands-hate-incidents-year-even-though/
"More than 87,000 ‘non-crime hate incidents’ have been recorded by 27 forces in England and Wales over the past five years, when the national policing body introduced its Hate Crime Operational Guidelines.
The guidelines state that an incident - perceived to be motivated by hostility towards religion, race or transgender identity - must be recorded “irrespective of whether there is any evidence to identify the hate element” and can even show up on an individual’s DBS check, despite them not committing a crime. "
You?
I am also quite capable of thinking about more than one thing at a time. I do not think that a dangerous virus is a good reason for allowing the police - or anyone else - to ignore the law, especially when they have been given all the powers they need. I think this not because of some abstract theory but because if the regulations brought in to protect us all - and especially people like me - are abused and brought into disrepute then that increases the risks for all of us.2 -
I'd love to see you try it for even a day.Cyclefree said:
Come off it. It is not a “difficult job” to know what the law is. It took me about 5 minutes to find the relevant regulations on restrictions on movements. It is not a “difficult job” to know that the law and government advice are two different things and that the police’s job is not to enforce government advice. It is not a “difficult job” to realise that if you abuse your power or behave without any common-sense you risk undermining what we are all trying to do.felix said:
I think the great majority of Police are doing a very difficult job well in the most appalling circumstances. Just as most of the public are being responsible. You are allowing a few examples of 'gotcha' press hacks to overreact.Cyclefree said:
Sloppy writing and even sloppier thinking.Foxy said:
Spellcheck for innocent, I assume!Cyclefree said:
What are “incident people”?isam said:Cyclefree said:
It’s not just mission creep. It’s worse than that. They’re acting illegally - even under the very wide powers they’ve been given.AlastairMeeks said:It didn't take the police long to find mission creep in the powers they've been given, did it?
Now, anyone care to guess when these powers will be repealed? We can do this by month, year or decade - your call.
That is wrong, virus or no virus.
Warrington police’s Twitter seems like an audition to be a BBC comedian
https://twitter.com/policewarr/status/1243941892817117185?s=21
And can we have a rule forbidding policemen and other public officials to go outside or say or do anything until they have learnt how to write English?
The virus is not “targeting” anyone. Innocence is irrelevant.
The behaviour of the police has been abysmal. If we have to have restrictions for up to 6 months the way the police and local officials are behaving is going to make it impossible for these to work. People are - rightly - not going to take seriously instructions or advice from people who do not behave lawfully themselves and/or who make fools of themselves over Easter eggs.0 -
Orban gets away with being a tinpot dictator because Hungarian elites - business people etc allow him to be. Treating Hungary and in particular those elites as pariahs can be effective. But I'm not seeing that level of resolve amongst their European counterparts.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Given there is no legal provision in the treaties to 'expel' a member state, this could only ever be a political process, and that is indeed improbable.kle4 said:
For measures taken in a genuine emergency which have not yet been abused? Seems improbable even if the measures look dreadful.not_on_fire said:
If true, surely Hungary will be expelled from the EU?kle4 said:
No time limit!?CarlottaVance said:
Furthermore, it may not be the wisest thing to expel Orban, anyway.
Only half of Hungary is standing behind him, the other half has different views and needs friends outside of the country.
The rest of the EU can not exert a lot of pressure initially but may have more influence on the development in the long term with Hungary in the EU, rather than on its doorstep.0 -
Only hedge fund could think of thatNigelb said:
'Privet' healthcare.BigRich said:
I don't understand?northern_monkey said:
Hedging their bets? No use beating around the bush.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
Keeping a fence around the infected.
0 -
Atención: El coronavirus no acabará antes de verano. La previsión del Gobierno
La ministra de Defensa, Margarita Robles, reconoce fallos del Gobierno en la gestión de la crisis
Realism from the Spanish government. Although none of us want to hear it. I suspect it won't just apply here either.0 -
Germany has a healthcare system, where private operates provide the output and providers compeat for bissiness,kamski said:
Germany does not have a private health system.felix said:
Not Spain - their NHS is similar to the UK. Though eyes and teeth are mostly private. It has a thriving private system mainly because it is quite cheap as salaries of doctors are quite a bit lower over here. Don;t know about Italy.Foxy said:
Yes, but that is similar in most European countries like Spain and Italy too. Also of course the USA, which was very slow to test.BigRich said:
I suspect that I will get a lot of hate on here for saying this.kamski said:
Lots of labsMalmesbury said:
So where are they getting the enormous volumes (relatively) of reagents and lab time required?kamski said:
So far as I know lab tests. Quick tests might be available somewhere in Germany, though I've not heard of it.Malmesbury said:
The genuine source of the difference would be extremely interesting to know, from a public health policy point of view. I look forward to the result of the inevitable scientific enquiry into this.Nigelb said:
Good for him.matthiasfromhamburg said:Nice to see Mr Neill trying to maintain some professional standards and some level of individual decency by having a deeper look into matters, reconsidering his views and correcting himself.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20
Is there still not some uncertainty over the percentage of mild/asymptomatic cases Germany's more widespread testing might have identified, though ?
One question I have - what tests is Germany using: All the lengthy, lab tests, or are they using the quick tests in combination (see South Korea)?
There's lots of countries following exactly the same trajectory as Germany: lots of confirmed cases with at first very few deaths, followed by deaths slowly catching up. Which is exactly what you would expect if the testing is doing a reasonable job of tracking the epidemic, given that it takes an average of 20 days to die.
The USA has done the opposite - a high initial death rate because no testing but now lower because a lot of testing. Maybe soon Germany and US will have same death rate.
The way I see it, any country without this pattern of very low early death rate has probably failed to catch many of the early infections with testing, which probably does have public health policy implications.
But Germany has essentially a privet healthcare system. (with a lot of regulation and the government paying for insurance for the poor) but I suspect that as a result they were therefor more dynamic with the ability to rapidly expand testing.
As always few systems are fully one or the other, and there is a lot of veriation, making it possible to argue lots of things.
but I think the forling is correct.
1) Germany uses market fores more than the UK.
2) Germany spends more on there heath cares system. (about 1.5% more iirc)
both of these will have an effect of the level of outcome. I think that 1) is the most significant, but accept others in good faith will disagree.2 -
Simon Stephen's says 9000 vivid 19 patients currently in hospital0
-
No lawyer, but handing your house to junior whilst Mrs F continues to live in it opens up questions of paying rent for the use. Can't remember the posh legal word for this, but it is an issue with IHT.Foxy said:Question for PB lawyers:
I am rewriting my will (never a better time...)
Is it better to leave it all to Mrs Foxy, or to Fox jr, with Mrs Foxy getting control until her demise, from the point of view of inheritance tax?0 -
bigjohnowls said:
Simon Stephen's says 9000 covid 19 patients currently in hospital
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Vivid might be your viewing habits John :-) - warning if you google NSFWbigjohnowls said:Simon Stephen's says 9000 vivid 19 patients currently in hospital
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