politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salmond acquitted on all charges

FrancisUrquhart said:

CatMan said:

Disney+ launches tomorrow. Finally I can watch The Mandalorian, although they are only releasing one episode a week.....grrrrrrrrrrr

What genius came up with that idea!

Well we get two episodes tomorrow, then one a week.

The strategy is that people will sign up long term, rather than sign up for the free trial and binge watch it in a few days and bugger off.

Welsh government announce the closure of all holiday parks and the national parks

I assume this must be a result of tonights Cobra and may give a clue as to the direction of travel by Boris

And for HYUFD Royal Welsh Show from 20th to the 23rd July cancelled

I'm beginning to see a little bit of value in the market - specifically, some corporate bonds. Some of the corporate bond ETFs are down 25% in the last few weeks, and now trade at 10-15% discounts to NAVs. That requires a staggering amount of things to go wrong in the world.

(Put it like this. If we're going to see 40% of corporate bonds default, then the stock market has another 60% to lose.)

edit

justin124 said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season

Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then

Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July

You are behind the curve on this I’m not sure what boris has to do with it

No big events have yet been postponed beyond June and that applies globally as well as the UK

The reason is vested interests are hiding behind their hands

The Olympics will not take place and to be honest thinking they will is an insult to the millions of people suffering severe health and economic costs

Most if not all sporting events upto late august will be cancelled

Can we all just get together and say 2020 is a write off, and we'll try 2020 again next year?

Can’t they just show all last year’s sport on television as repeats?

Well I think they definitely should replay the Eng vs NZ cricket world cup final and also the final day of the Ashes test where Stokes played one of the greatest innings in test cricket.

They did that on Sky Sports on Christmas Day and New Year's Day.

They should do the nation a favour and stick it on the YouTube...

Replaying the entire 2012 olympics on the tv as it happened was a good idea I thought

Perhaps the 1964 Tokyo Olympics should be shown again.

Somebody surely could do a simulation with current data on athletes and televise it! Imagine the controversy as Team GB denied a virtual gold in the 5000M because Mo Fareh's nike trainer flew off mid-race as the computer random number generator chooses this event to do a black swan moment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season

Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then

Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July

You are behind the curve on this I’m not sure what boris has to do with it

No big events have yet been postponed beyond June and that applies globally as well as the UK

The reason is vested interests are hiding behind their hands

The Olympics will not take place and to be honest thinking they will is an insult to the millions of people suffering severe health and economic costs

Most if not all sporting events upto late august will be cancelled

Can we all just get together and say 2020 is a write off, and we'll try 2020 again next year?

Can’t they just show all last year’s sport on television as repeats?

Well I think they definitely should replay the Eng vs NZ cricket world cup final and also the final day of the Ashes test where Stokes played one of the greatest innings in test cricket.

Can they replay the entire 2005 Ashes series, the 2003 Rugby World Cup and the 2005 European Cup final? Oh, and the 2008 Brazil Grand Prix. Pretty please.

Perhaps the media companies could play nicely with one another and either take over a free to air channel for the next 2-3 months or do a live YouTube channel showing the home nations greatest sports matches.

I am sure people would love to see stuff like the 1966 World Cup final again.

BBC showed the 1966 World Cup Final in it's entirety just before the 1996 Euros. I thoroughly enjoyed it, and it was also interesting to see both how the game had changed and the TV technology. I did have a sneaking suspicion though that the match would go into extra time.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Welsh government announce the closure of all holiday parks and the national parks

I assume this must be a result of tonights Cobra and may give a clue as to the direction of travel by Boris

Good, holiday parks shouldn't have been trading. Responsible owners where I live had already closed up.

tlg86 said:

% of UK cases in London has fallen to 36.5%. It was at 39% two days ago.

I'd also noticed that - around the equivalent time (the day Italy went into hard lockdown - albeit we've already been on that track for a few days already) 58.5% of the cases were in Lombardy, perhaps suggesting we do not have quite as extreme a hotspot in London. (Also the relative number of people is similar - 16.7% of Italy's population is in Lombardy and 13.5% of the UK is in London).

partypoliticalorphan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.

Welcome to the club, do you have a support network that can help you?

Support to be delivered by local councils. In my area they have to be operational by Wednesday. Hope it runs smoothly where you are.

We should be fine for a variety of reasons.

1) My father hoards like a doomsday prepper for years
2) We have several close friends who can help
3) One of whom is a wholesaler and has made sure we get stuff
4) My father's signed up to manage the phone lines for a local GP's, so he's a triple priority for supplies.

If anyone wants to have at the dataset it's available here: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 in JSON via an API, @rcs1000 it will save you having to keep a spreadsheet updated at least.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Welsh government announce the closure of all holiday parks and the national parks

I assume this must be a result of tonights Cobra and may give a clue as to the direction of travel by Boris

Good, holiday parks shouldn't have been trading. Responsible owners where I live had already closed up.

The government should crack down on amateurs attempting to speak Welsh as the WHO say that unauthorised Welsh speakers are causing 2.4 times as much fluid particles in the air than than when speaking English. A license to speak Welsh will only be issued to those who have mastered the art of spitless chatter.

Fysics_Teacher said:

MyBurningEars said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.

Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.

Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....

I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.

Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:

NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.

Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.

Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.

Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.

Read more advice about staying safe at home.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable-guidance

We will send you more messages with information.

To opt out reply STOP

To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?

If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

So, what’s everyone think, lockdown or no lockdown?

I suspect it will be lockdown 0.5. No going to public spaces except essential workers needing to travel. But stopping short of banning us all leaving the house.

The fact that it's a televised address in the middle of primetime TV, rather than a press conference at 5pm, suggests the measures will be quite big.

I'd prefer to get home from the isle of wight first.

My ferry is at 11am tomorrow morning.

I doubt the Isle of Wight will be cut off from the mainland.

True. They're still making people pour out the cars and into passenger cabins on some journeys though, which I think is crazy.

It’s contrary to international maritime law to have passengers on a designated cargo deck, and they had to get a dispensation for the one boat based on their safety plan including having staff manning the deck throughout the voyage. Perhaps the design of the Clare made it easier to get the dispensation for than the Victoria.

All of this is true. We got the Victoria on the way out.

Andy_JS said:

"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk'
One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-milkmen-and-women-wanted-after-demand-goes-berserk-11962432

yes Milkwomen does not sound right does it?

rottenborough said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

MyBurningEars said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.

Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.

Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....

I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.

Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:

NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.

Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.

Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.

Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.

Read more advice about staying safe at home.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable-guidance

We will send you more messages with information.

To opt out reply STOP

To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?

If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.

I'm being socially distant rather than under 'house arrest', but I'm doing my garden, under expert guidance :-) .

Next question tomorrow.

rottenborough said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?

If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.

To avoid mixed messages, I would have thought?

Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.

But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.

Fysics_Teacher said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.

Welcome to the club, do you have a support network that can help you?

Yes. Several good friends who live nearby and can drop things off.

Good to hear. Stay safe.

SandyRentool said:

Just seen the footage of a scrum outside a supermarket on ITV news.

Then the scenes from the tube.

That's why strong measures are required.

I don't know what 'the scenes' from the tube are, but hasn't it been made worse by taking trains out of service? I cannot see how that is warranted. Tube drivers are in a little bubble. They are paid a lot, they should just run empty services - it's safer for people.

The 3 steps thing weird. Do you think it is again just trying to reinforce if people come to your house e.g to do home help or you live with a younger person who is leaving the house on a daily basis, stay away from them.

Edit - And if you live in a care home. Stay more than 3 steps away when chatting up Doris.

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.

But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.

Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it.
I’ll risk it.

Well that is like my elderly parents and I told them as long as they don't go near the fences and talk to the neighbours, I don't see any risk walking around a bit and if it gets nicer sitting outside at a table. Just don't engage with anybody else.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk'
One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-milkmen-and-women-wanted-after-demand-goes-berserk-11962432

People took the piss after I mentioned I had a milkman on here a few weeks ago.

They're not laughing now.

A-ha. Now we know why the pregnancy rate goes up during a lockdown.

kyf_100 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk'
One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-milkmen-and-women-wanted-after-demand-goes-berserk-11962432

People took the piss after I mentioned I had a milkman on here a few weeks ago.

They're not laughing now.

A-ha. Now we know why the pregnancy rate goes up during a lockdown.

We fuck each other actually.

Casino_Royale said:

kyf_100 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk'
One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-milkmen-and-women-wanted-after-demand-goes-berserk-11962432

People took the piss after I mentioned I had a milkman on here a few weeks ago.

They're not laughing now.

A-ha. Now we know why the pregnancy rate goes up during a lockdown.

We fuck each other actually.

You and the milkman?!

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.

But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.

Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it.
I’ll risk it.

Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.

I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.

IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.

You're a physics teacher (right?). Take the NHS's advice on board, and make your own informed decisions on all the information sources available, of which the NHS is one. If they had the secret of eternal life, they wouldn't kill so many people all the time.

I know enough to know when to take the advice of experts. I’ve been having immunotherapy and I was in hospital for a week last year with pneumonia from a random infection: I’m not going to risk anything here. Without the NHS I probably wouldn’t have made it past 30.

FrancisUrquhart said:

The 3 steps thing weird. Do you think it is again just trying to reinforce if people come to your house e.g to do home help or you live with a younger person who is leaving the house on a daily basis, stay away from them.

Edit - And if you live in a care home.

Yes think that's the gist of it. The website does say:

If you have someone else living with you, they are not required to adopt these protective shielding measures for themselves. They should do what they can to support you in shielding and they should stringently follow guidance on social distancing, reducing their contact outside the home. If you care for but don’t actually live with someone who is extremely vulnerable you should still stringently follow guidance on social distancing.

The measures for the extremely vulnerable listed on the website are

1) Strictly avoid contact with someone who is displaying symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19). These symptoms include high temperature and/or new and continuous cough.
2) Do not leave your house.
3) Do not attend any gatherings. This includes gatherings of friends and families in private spaces for example family homes, weddings and religious services.
4) Do not go out for shopping, leisure or travel and, when arranging food or medication deliveries, these should be left at the door to minimise contact.
5) Keep in touch using remote technology such as phone, internet, and social media.

Do use telephone or online services to contact your GP or other essential services.

We know that stopping these activities will be difficult. You should try to identify ways of staying in touch with others and participating in your normal activities remotely from your home. However, you must not participate in alternative activities if they involve any contact with other people.

This advice will be in place for at least 12 weeks from the day you receive your letter.

More on how to shield if you're living with other people:

What should you do if you have someone else living with you?

Whilst the rest of your household are not required to adopt these protective shielding measures for themselves, we would expect them to do what they can to support you in shielding and to stringently follow guidance on social distancing.

1) Minimise as much as possible the time other family members spend in shared spaces such as kitchens, bathrooms and sitting areas, and keep shared spaces well ventilated.
2) Aim to keep 2 metres (3 steps) away from people you live with and encourage them to sleep in a different bed where possible. If you can, you should use a separate bathroom from the rest of the household. Make sure you use separate towels from the other people in your house, both for drying themselves after bathing or showering and for hand-hygiene purposes.
3) If you do share a toilet and bathroom with others, it is important that they are cleaned after use every time (for example, wiping surfaces you have come into contact with). Another tip is to consider drawing up a rota for bathing, with you using the facilities first.
4) If you share a kitchen with others, avoid using it while they are present. If you can, you should take your meals back to your room to eat. If you have one, use a dishwasher to clean and dry the family’s used crockery and cutlery. If this is not possible, wash them using your usual washing up liquid and warm water and dry them thoroughly. If you are using your own utensils, remember to use a separate tea towel for drying these.
5) We understand that it will be difficult for some people to separate themselves from others at home. You should do your very best to follow this guidance and everyone in your household should regularly wash their hands, avoid touching their face, and clean frequently touched surfaces.

If the rest of your household stringently follow advice on social distancing and minimise the risk of spreading the virus within the home by following the advice above, there is no need for them to also shield alongside you.

RobD said:

LordWakefield said:

https://twitter.com/RepDanCrenshaw/status/1242163424668389383?s=20

Just look at all the unrelated stuff that they are trying to attach to the bill. Insanity!

I think they might just be getting Trump off the hook, again!!

This seemed pertinent regarding the Cummings expose:

I believe he has been verified, claims to be a critical care doctor

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fnl0n6/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_high/

1/2

I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.

That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.

I'll tell you what happened in the UK.

Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.

But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).

So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:

the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later

the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively

the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support

early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth

stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.

Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.

1/2

MightyAlex said:

This seemed pertinent regarding the Cummings expose:

I believe he has been verified, claims to be a critical care doctor

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fnl0n6/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_high/

1/2

I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.

That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.

I'll tell you what happened in the UK.

Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.

But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).

So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:

the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later

the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively

the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support

early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth

stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.

Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.

1/2

This virus is a real insidious bitch.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242178169370746881

NYT:

"The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.

If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt."

BBC News Special just announced straight after Boris. This should be interesting.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242178169370746881

ASTs aren't governed by the Protection from Eviction Act or Rent Act 1977. What does the bill do to the Housing Act 1988 (which does)?

BannedinnParis said:

RobD said:

BannedinnParis said:

RobD said:

BannedinnParis said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season

Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then

Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July

Get real.

Boris saying he wants peak in three months does not make it happen and countries are already withdrawing from the olympics including Canada

If you think we will be back to normal by mid summer you are a fiction writer

We cannot cancel everything for the rest of the year, provide the peak is over by June normal service should resume as much as possible, certainly until the next likely peak next Winter

Remember, at the peak of the outbreak only half of those that will eventually be infected have got it.

Not sure that's the case.

There's a fundamental difference between halving the area under a curve vs picking the maximum point and splitting it that way.

Most of the projections looks roughly symmetric. So if you are near the peak you are probably quite close to 50% of the total area.

Yes, if the projections are symmetric, then yes, but I wouldn't dare be precise about it.

I can see the final 'distribution' having a long tail, fwiw

True. You are likely to be closer to 50% than 20% or 80% though.

Sure. Its just something I do spend a bit of time working on.

Just a fwiw, but the two approaches differ by 33 % for this distribution.

What you really want to be looking at is something like this:

Fysics_Teacher said:

rottenborough said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.

But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.

Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it.
I’ll risk it.

Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.

I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.

IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.

The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.

Judging by the crowds at B&Q this AM, everyone is going to do their gardens. All quite well socially distanced, but business massively up on a normal February.

I'm looking for something to study, as well. Whether I will keep it up - no idea. Singing is currently appealing if I can find an online teacher.

Also planning to read an appropriate book I have had my eye on for some time - Sir Francis Chichester's account of his solo circummnavigation: Gyspy Moth Circles the World.

The plan at this point was to get some social life back after the death of my caree before Christmas. But that has gone West.

But the feeling is like Fats Waller:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSNPpssruFY

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242178169370746881

ASTs aren't governed by the Protection from Eviction Act or Rent Act 1977. What does the bill do to the Housing Act 1988 (which does)?

InsideHousign seem to think the changes to ASTs are the same.

I assume the idea is that any notice currently served is invalid, and will need to re-served, for a further three months from now. Seems weak to me*, but not as bad as mde out

*after all, three months may not prove enough... plus the Court's won't be sitting

MightyAlex said:

2/2
..
Finally, a team at Imperial informing the government's response put up-to-date COVID-19 data into the historical models that the UK plan was based on (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf), and predicted in a best case scenario 250,000 deaths and excess of 8x surge capacity of UK intensive cares. They concluded that our approach was wrong, and that "Epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time".
...
2/2

Of course that is only half truth....their first model didn't say that at all based upon initial data from Asia. It was only when they updated it to include the numbers emerging from Italy, it said the number of cases that would require hospitalization would be double the original estimate....and that is when everybody went shit.

https://twitter.com/FlipChartRick/status/1242178201096531968

I downloaded Yousician's Piano app, and am teaching myself the piano...

I remember a week ago saying we were in a terrible state for Critical Care beds and ventilators and being told our number made economic sense even though it was the lowest in Europe.


We will pay a terrible price for it in terms of deaths and sacrificing the oldest most poorly over next few weeks imo via rationing ventilators.

Taxpayers will also pay Trillion £+ trying to make up ground and stop the economy going to rat shit as well as firefighting the Tsunami of deaths.

Anyone else off for a walk outside just in case Boris stops people from exercising?

Casino_Royale said:

Imagine how shit this broadcast would be if Theresa May was still PM.

I miss Podium Guy. I hope he's keeping well.

Andy_JS said:

Anyone else off for a walk outside just in case Boris stops people from exercising?

I’ve just necked a cider. Does that count?

Casino_Royale said:

Imagine how shit this broadcast would be if Theresa May was still PM.

We could have had Hunt.

numbertwelve said:

RobD said:

LordWakefield said:

https://twitter.com/RepDanCrenshaw/status/1242163424668389383?s=20

Just look at all the unrelated stuff that they are trying to attach to the bill. Insanity!

RobD said:

LordWakefield said:

https://twitter.com/RepDanCrenshaw/status/1242163424668389383?s=20

Just look at all the unrelated stuff that they are trying to attach to the bill. Insanity!

The Democrats. Specialists in losing unloseable elections since 2004....

Every day they piss around with the bill, a few more people die and the more Trump will rightly blame them for it.

US politics is massively polarised and, in an election year, everyone's trying to play for political advantage.

MattW said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

rottenborough said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.

But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.

Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it.
I’ll risk it.

Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.

I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.

IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.

The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.

Judging by the crowds at B&Q this AM, everyone is going to do their gardens. All quite well socially distanced, but business massively up on a normal February.

I'm looking for something to study, as well. Whether I will keep it up - no idea. Singing is currently appealing if I can find an online teacher.

Also planning to read an appropriate book I have had my eye on for some time - Sir Francis Chichester's account of his solo circummnavigation: Gyspy Moth Circles the World.

The plan at this point was to get some social life back after the death of my caree before Christmas. But that has gone West.

But the feeling is like Fats Waller:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSNPpssruFY

Yeah, I just had an email from Suttons saying they are swamped with orders and to expect delays