I'm beginning to see a little bit of value in the market - specifically, some corporate bonds. Some of the corporate bond ETFs are down 25% in the last few weeks, and now trade at 10-15% discounts to NAVs. That requires a staggering amount of things to go wrong in the world.
(Put it like this. If we're going to see 40% of corporate bonds default, then the stock market has another 60% to lose.)
Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season
Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then
Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July
You are behind the curve on this I’m not sure what boris has to do with it
No big events have yet been postponed beyond June and that applies globally as well as the UK
The reason is vested interests are hiding behind their hands
The Olympics will not take place and to be honest thinking they will is an insult to the millions of people suffering severe health and economic costs
Most if not all sporting events upto late august will be cancelled
Can we all just get together and say 2020 is a write off, and we'll try 2020 again next year?
Can’t they just show all last year’s sport on television as repeats?
Well I think they definitely should replay the Eng vs NZ cricket world cup final and also the final day of the Ashes test where Stokes played one of the greatest innings in test cricket.
They did that on Sky Sports on Christmas Day and New Year's Day.
They should do the nation a favour and stick it on the YouTube...
Replaying the entire 2012 olympics on the tv as it happened was a good idea I thought
Perhaps the 1964 Tokyo Olympics should be shown again.
Somebody surely could do a simulation with current data on athletes and televise it! Imagine the controversy as Team GB denied a virtual gold in the 5000M because Mo Fareh's nike trainer flew off mid-race as the computer random number generator chooses this event to do a black swan moment.
Disney+ launches tomorrow. Finally I can watch The Mandalorian, although they are only releasing one episode a week.....grrrrrrrrrrr
What genius came up with that idea!
Well we get two episodes tomorrow, then one a week.
The strategy is that people will sign up long term, rather than sign up for the free trial and binge watch it in a few days and bugger off.
BTW, Westworld Season III is definitely going for those with moron level intelligence. In last night's episode they literally had characters spell out what had just happened, no mystery, just bashed in the face with a blow by blow what had just occurred.
Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season
Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then
Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July
You are behind the curve on this I’m not sure what boris has to do with it
No big events have yet been postponed beyond June and that applies globally as well as the UK
The reason is vested interests are hiding behind their hands
The Olympics will not take place and to be honest thinking they will is an insult to the millions of people suffering severe health and economic costs
Most if not all sporting events upto late august will be cancelled
Can we all just get together and say 2020 is a write off, and we'll try 2020 again next year?
Can’t they just show all last year’s sport on television as repeats?
Well I think they definitely should replay the Eng vs NZ cricket world cup final and also the final day of the Ashes test where Stokes played one of the greatest innings in test cricket.
Can they replay the entire 2005 Ashes series, the 2003 Rugby World Cup and the 2005 European Cup final? Oh, and the 2008 Brazil Grand Prix. Pretty please.
Perhaps the media companies could play nicely with one another and either take over a free to air channel for the next 2-3 months or do a live YouTube channel showing the home nations greatest sports matches.
I am sure people would love to see stuff like the 1966 World Cup final again.
BBC showed the 1966 World Cup Final in it's entirety just before the 1996 Euros. I thoroughly enjoyed it, and it was also interesting to see both how the game had changed and the TV technology. I did have a sneaking suspicion though that the match would go into extra time.
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.
Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....
I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.
Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:
NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.
Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.
Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.
Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.
Olympics off does raise the question why football is messing around and not cancelling the season
Indeed it may be late autumn before any football can be played if even then
Olympics is not yet confirmed to be off, Boris has said he wants the peak over by the end of June, the Olympics does not begin until the end of July
You are behind the curve on this I’m not sure what boris has to do with it
No big events have yet been postponed beyond June and that applies globally as well as the UK
The reason is vested interests are hiding behind their hands
The Olympics will not take place and to be honest thinking they will is an insult to the millions of people suffering severe health and economic costs
Most if not all sporting events upto late august will be cancelled
Can we all just get together and say 2020 is a write off, and we'll try 2020 again next year?
Can’t they just show all last year’s sport on television as repeats?
Well I think they definitely should replay the Eng vs NZ cricket world cup final and also the final day of the Ashes test where Stokes played one of the greatest innings in test cricket.
Can they replay the entire 2005 Ashes series, the 2003 Rugby World Cup and the 2005 European Cup final? Oh, and the 2008 Brazil Grand Prix. Pretty please.
Perhaps the media companies could play nicely with one another and either take over a free to air channel for the next 2-3 months or do a live YouTube channel showing the home nations greatest sports matches.
I am sure people would love to see stuff like the 1966 World Cup final again.
BBC showed the 1966 World Cup Final in it's entirety just before the 1996 Euros. I thoroughly enjoyed it, and it was also interesting to see both how the game had changed and the TV technology. I did have a sneaking suspicion though that the match would go into extra time.
% of UK cases in London has fallen to 36.5%. It was at 39% two days ago.
I'd also noticed that - around the equivalent time (the day Italy went into hard lockdown - albeit we've already been on that track for a few days already) 58.5% of the cases were in Lombardy, perhaps suggesting we do not have quite as extreme a hotspot in London. (Also the relative number of people is similar - 16.7% of Italy's population is in Lombardy and 13.5% of the UK is in London).
Sky are doing MNF tonight with Neville and Carragher talking about games from their era. Just done Leeds 4-3 Liverpool when Viduka got all four for Leeds.
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
Welcome to the club, do you have a support network that can help you?
Support to be delivered by local councils. In my area they have to be operational by Wednesday. Hope it runs smoothly where you are.
We should be fine for a variety of reasons.
1) My father hoards like a doomsday prepper for years 2) We have several close friends who can help 3) One of whom is a wholesaler and has made sure we get stuff 4) My father's signed up to manage the phone lines for a local GP's, so he's a triple priority for supplies.
I'm beginning to see a little bit of value in the market - specifically, some corporate bonds. Some of the corporate bond ETFs are down 25% in the last few weeks, and now trade at 10-15% discounts to NAVs. That requires a staggering amount of things to go wrong in the world.
(Put it like this. If we're going to see 40% of corporate bonds default, then the stock market has another 60% to lose.)
Bonds held up pretty well during the early part of the crash, but have taken a knock as the possibility of default and the risk of an inflationary spike have risen. It’s the latter that has knocked them down these last few days, with all the stimulus/protection packages flying around.
Disney+ launches tomorrow. Finally I can watch The Mandalorian, although they are only releasing one episode a week.....grrrrrrrrrrr
What genius came up with that idea!
Well we get two episodes tomorrow, then one a week.
The strategy is that people will sign up long term, rather than sign up for the free trial and binge watch it in a few days and bugger off.
BTW, Westworld Season III is definitely going for those with moron level intelligence. In last night's episode they literally had characters spell out what had just happened, no mystery, just bashed in the face with a blow by blow what had just occurred.
Welsh government announce the closure of all holiday parks and the national parks
I assume this must be a result of tonights Cobra and may give a clue as to the direction of travel by Boris
Good, holiday parks shouldn't have been trading. Responsible owners where I live had already closed up.
The government should crack down on amateurs attempting to speak Welsh as the WHO say that unauthorised Welsh speakers are causing 2.4 times as much fluid particles in the air than than when speaking English. A license to speak Welsh will only be issued to those who have mastered the art of spitless chatter.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.
Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....
I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.
Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:
NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.
Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.
Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.
Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.
To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?
If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.
So, what’s everyone think, lockdown or no lockdown?
I suspect it will be lockdown 0.5. No going to public spaces except essential workers needing to travel. But stopping short of banning us all leaving the house.
The fact that it's a televised address in the middle of primetime TV, rather than a press conference at 5pm, suggests the measures will be quite big.
I'd prefer to get home from the isle of wight first.
My ferry is at 11am tomorrow morning.
I doubt the Isle of Wight will be cut off from the mainland.
True. They're still making people pour out the cars and into passenger cabins on some journeys though, which I think is crazy.
It’s contrary to international maritime law to have passengers on a designated cargo deck, and they had to get a dispensation for the one boat based on their safety plan including having staff manning the deck throughout the voyage. Perhaps the design of the Clare made it easier to get the dispensation for than the Victoria.
All of this is true. We got the Victoria on the way out.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.
Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....
I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.
Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:
NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.
Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.
Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.
Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.
To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?
If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.
I'm being socially distant rather than under 'house arrest', but I'm doing my garden, under expert guidance :-) .
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
Positive attitude mate. I haven't left the house for 2 weeks and kept myself busy and it is whizzing by.
Also, Ozarks is back in 3 days.....
I've been stuck since the start of February when I had an op, got the same text today! Well I presume it's the same, compared notes with a friend and she got whatever the electronic equivalent of a carbon copy is.
Perhaps we can all compare notes, mine said:
NHS Coronavirus Service: We have identified that you're someone at risk of severe illness if you catch Coronavirus.
Please remain at home for a minimum of 12 weeks. Home is the safest place for you.
Staying in helps you stay well and that will help the NHS too. You can open a window but do not leave your home, and stay 3 steps away from others indoors.
Wash your hands more often, for at least 20 seconds.
To the letter I think. Do you read it as saying you shouldn’t go out at all, not even into you own garden?
If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
Just seen the footage of a scrum outside a supermarket on ITV news.
Then the scenes from the tube.
That's why strong measures are required.
I don't know what 'the scenes' from the tube are, but hasn't it been made worse by taking trains out of service? I cannot see how that is warranted. Tube drivers are in a little bubble. They are paid a lot, they should just run empty services - it's safer for people.
The 3 steps thing weird. Do you think it is again just trying to reinforce if people come to your house e.g to do home help or you live with a younger person who is leaving the house on a daily basis, stay away from them.
Edit - And if you live in a care home. Stay more than 3 steps away when chatting up Doris.
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Well that is like my elderly parents and I told them as long as they don't go near the fences and talk to the neighbours, I don't see any risk walking around a bit and if it gets nicer sitting outside at a table. Just don't engage with anybody else.
When a journalist sees groups of 4 or 5 people in close proximity on a beach or in a park, I wonder whether they're betraying their own prejudices in assuming that those people don't live in the same place of residence? London journalists are probably one of the groups most likely to either live alone or with just one other person, whereas in other parts of the country households are more likely to consist of a larger number of people.
I'd assume most young journalists are living with 2-4 other people, albeit unrelated.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
You're a physics teacher (right?). Take the NHS's advice on board, and make your own informed decisions on all the information sources available, of which the NHS is one. If they had the secret of eternal life, they wouldn't kill so many people all the time.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
So, what’s everyone think, lockdown or no lockdown?
I suspect it will be lockdown 0.5. No going to public spaces except essential workers needing to travel. But stopping short of banning us all leaving the house.
The fact that it's a televised address in the middle of primetime TV, rather than a press conference at 5pm, suggests the measures will be quite big.
I'd prefer to get home from the isle of wight first.
My ferry is at 11am tomorrow morning.
I doubt the Isle of Wight will be cut off from the mainland.
True. They're still making people pour out the cars and into passenger cabins on some journeys though, which I think is crazy.
It’s contrary to international maritime law to have passengers on a designated cargo deck, and they had to get a dispensation for the one boat based on their safety plan including having staff manning the deck throughout the voyage. Perhaps the design of the Clare made it easier to get the dispensation for than the Victoria.
All of this is true. We got the Victoria on the way out.
If you are travelling at an odd numbered hour tomorrow I believe you will be staying in your car.
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
I’ve just been told by the NHS that, due to my vulnerability I need to self isolate for 12 weeks. That is going to be hard.
You're a physics teacher (right?). Take the NHS's advice on board, and make your own informed decisions on all the information sources available, of which the NHS is one. If they had the secret of eternal life, they wouldn't kill so many people all the time.
I know enough to know when to take the advice of experts. I’ve been having immunotherapy and I was in hospital for a week last year with pneumonia from a random infection: I’m not going to risk anything here. Without the NHS I probably wouldn’t have made it past 30.
"Milkmen and women wanted after demand goes 'berserk' One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.
So, what’s everyone think, lockdown or no lockdown?
I suspect it will be lockdown 0.5. No going to public spaces except essential workers needing to travel. But stopping short of banning us all leaving the house.
The fact that it's a televised address in the middle of primetime TV, rather than a press conference at 5pm, suggests the measures will be quite big.
I'd prefer to get home from the isle of wight first.
My ferry is at 11am tomorrow morning.
I doubt the Isle of Wight will be cut off from the mainland.
True. They're still making people pour out the cars and into passenger cabins on some journeys though, which I think is crazy.
It’s contrary to international maritime law to have passengers on a designated cargo deck, and they had to get a dispensation for the one boat based on their safety plan including having staff manning the deck throughout the voyage. Perhaps the design of the Clare made it easier to get the dispensation for than the Victoria.
All of this is true. We got the Victoria on the way out.
If you are travelling at an odd numbered hour tomorrow I believe you will be staying in your car.
You seem to know a lot about it!
We're booked at 11am I think but may wait for the "right" ferry - if there's availability - if not.
I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.
That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.
I'll tell you what happened in the UK.
Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.
But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).
So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:
the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later
the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively
the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support
early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth
stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.
Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.
The UK did the opposite of acting. In an act of what I see as sheer arrogance, they chose to do nothing, per the early stages of their disaster plan. There was some initial contact tracing, but this stopped when it was clear that there was significant community spread and exponential growth. And after this? They did not ramp up testing capabilities. They did not encourage social distancing. They did not boost PPE supply, or plan for surge capacity. They ignored advice from the WHO, public health experts in other country; epidemiologists, scientists and doctors in their own. I can tell you with certainty now that they did not even collect regular statistics for how many COVID patients were being admitted to critical care in the UK. They did nothing.
What were they thinking? Maybe that what had happened in China, and was happening in Italy, couldn't possibly happen in the UK, right? It was impossible. The persisted with the original plan with no modification.
Well COVID-19 is not flu. That is perfectly clear. And it was clear that the UK numbers were following, exponentially, the same trend as Italy. But still the government and their advisers stuck to their guns and put out reassuring messages. I would ask here - why did they still think we would be different?
The government has instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but has not mandated them.
We are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.
We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.
Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals in London are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.
There is clearly not enough PPE in the country and we are rushing to secure supplies.
I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.
That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.
I'll tell you what happened in the UK.
Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.
But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).
So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:
the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later
the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively
the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support
early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth
stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.
Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.
"The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.
If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt."
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.
Judging by the crowds at B&Q this AM, everyone is going to do their gardens. All quite well socially distanced, but business massively up on a normal February.
I'm looking for something to study, as well. Whether I will keep it up - no idea. Singing is currently appealing if I can find an online teacher.
Also planning to read an appropriate book I have had my eye on for some time - Sir Francis Chichester's account of his solo circummnavigation: Gyspy Moth Circles the World.
The plan at this point was to get some social life back after the death of my caree before Christmas. But that has gone West.
ASTs aren't governed by the Protection from Eviction Act or Rent Act 1977. What does the bill do to the Housing Act 1988 (which does)?
InsideHousign seem to think the changes to ASTs are the same.
I assume the idea is that any notice currently served is invalid, and will need to re-served, for a further three months from now. Seems weak to me*, but not as bad as mde out
*after all, three months may not prove enough... plus the Court's won't be sitting
Of course that is only half truth....their first model didn't say that at all based upon initial data from Asia. It was only when they updated it to include the numbers emerging from Italy, it said the number of cases that would require hospitalization would be double the original estimate....and that is when everybody went shit.
The UK did the opposite of acting. In an act of what I see as sheer arrogance, they chose to do nothing, per the early stages of their disaster plan. There was some initial contact tracing, but this stopped when it was clear that there was significant community spread and exponential growth. And after this? They did not ramp up testing capabilities. They did not encourage social distancing. They did not boost PPE supply, or plan for surge capacity. They ignored advice from the WHO, public health experts in other country; epidemiologists, scientists and doctors in their own. I can tell you with certainty now that they did not even collect regular statistics for how many COVID patients were being admitted to critical care in the UK. They did nothing.
What were they thinking? Maybe that what had happened in China, and was happening in Italy, couldn't possibly happen in the UK, right? It was impossible. The persisted with the original plan with no modification.
Well COVID-19 is not flu. That is perfectly clear. And it was clear that the UK numbers were following, exponentially, the same trend as Italy. But still the government and their advisers stuck to their guns and put out reassuring messages. I would ask here - why did they still think we would be different?
The government has instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but has not mandated them.
We are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.
We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.
Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals in London are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.
There is clearly not enough PPE in the country and we are rushing to secure supplies.
2/2
I think you will find in this corner of the internet, Boris and his team have not put a foot wrong.
"The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.
If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt."
That's correct, in theory. In practice you can't make EVERY American stay home, as you'll stop COVID-19 but cause some other enormous problems.
I remember a week ago saying we were in a terrible state for Critical Care beds and ventilators and being told our number made economic sense even though it was the lowest in Europe.
We will pay a terrible price for it in terms of deaths and sacrificing the oldest most poorly over next few weeks imo via rationing ventilators.
Taxpayers will also pay Trillion £+ trying to make up ground and stop the economy going to rat shit as well as firefighting the Tsunami of deaths.
I will not evict my tenants in these dark times, even if they can't pay. We will sort out the details later.
+1, same position here.
Lots of LLs I know are offering reduced rent - as I will do if Ts need it. They are all on notice to contact me and we will see what we can do.
In practice for HB Tenants I would offer to reduce it to the level of HB, for example, and do more if necessary.
The one that has not had attention is student rents if Universities close down, though there is no hardship as student finance has not been withdrawn for Unis that are not operating, and eg Nottingham Uni is currently running courses online.
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.
Judging by the crowds at B&Q this AM, everyone is going to do their gardens. All quite well socially distanced, but business massively up on a normal February.
I'm looking for something to study, as well. Whether I will keep it up - no idea. Singing is currently appealing if I can find an online teacher.
Also planning to read an appropriate book I have had my eye on for some time - Sir Francis Chichester's account of his solo circummnavigation: Gyspy Moth Circles the World.
The plan at this point was to get some social life back after the death of my caree before Christmas. But that has gone West.
I remember a week ago saying we were in a terrible state for Critical Care beds and ventilators and being told our number made economic sense even though it was the lowest in Europe.
We will pay a terrible price for it in terms of deaths and sacrificing the oldest most poorly over next few weeks imo via rationing ventilators.
Taxpayers will also pay Trillion £+ trying to make up ground and stop the economy going to rat shit as well as firefighting the Tsunami of deaths.
I wish you would get your facts correct. Not the lowest in Europe at all. This is like you claim of x50 the cost for renting private beds.
Sweden, Greece, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia, etc.....all have less. We have the same as social democrats / socialist favourite European example country, Denmark.
Re advice about staying indoors. The problem is if you start saying you can go in your garden, you have to say well it has to be a garden that is self contained, with sufficient shielding from neighbours etc etc etc. Then you will get people, but if he can go in the garden, I can go for a walk.
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
Mine is an area at the back of the house with high fences all round. I’m not sure I ever see anyone from it. I’ll risk it.
Hmm. Even if you are likely to end up having a chat with a neighbour over the hedge, they will be a couple of metres away.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
The only neighbour I used to chat with died a couple of years ago.
Imagine how shit this broadcast would be if Theresa May was still PM.
I mean yes we all remember the horrendous nothing has changed ad nauseum addresses, but to be honest she could do serious and measured quite well. I remember her speaking after the Manchester Bombing and thought that was a measured, serious, strong speech. Of course a few weeks after that she lost her majority and it all went downhill from there...
Comments
The strategy is that people will sign up long term, rather than sign up for the free trial and binge watch it in a few days and bugger off.
I assume this must be a result of tonights Cobra and may give a clue as to the direction of travel by Boris
And for HYUFD Royal Welsh Show from 20th to the 23rd July cancelled
(Put it like this. If we're going to see 40% of corporate bonds default, then the stock market has another 60% to lose.)
Couldn't be further than Season I is they tried.
1) My father hoards like a doomsday prepper for years
2) We have several close friends who can help
3) One of whom is a wholesaler and has made sure we get stuff
4) My father's signed up to manage the phone lines for a local GP's, so he's a triple priority for supplies.
One milkman says his dairy is "manic" as people try to heed government advice and avoid unnecessary trips."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-milkmen-and-women-wanted-after-demand-goes-berserk-11962432
If so, that is utterly ridiculous. One of the positives of this shitstorm is those lucky enough to own a garden will/should count their blessings many times a day.
Hundreds of Brits queue for HOURS outside McDonald’s drive-thru for final burger before 7pm coronavirus shutdown
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11235114/brits-queue-hours-mcdonalds-drive-thru-coronavirus-lockdown/
I'm being socially distant rather than under 'house arrest', but I'm doing my garden, under expert guidance :-) .
Next question tomorrow.
Snap
But use your common sense. If you have a sizeable garden, where you aren't going to be anywhere near anybody, its no different from being inside. But if your garden is a small section of lawn onto the main road, well don't.
They're not laughing now.
Edit - And if you live in a care home. Stay more than 3 steps away when chatting up Doris.
I’ll risk it.
I have had several chats with my neighbour over the hedge about all this nightmare (he is in lockdown due to age, me as a carer) and I suspect it has helped both of us keep mental strength.
IMHO there has to be a balance between the risk of catching from someone stood a couple of metres away or more, in open air, for five minutes and going insane by isolation.
Transition complete
We're booked at 11am I think but may wait for the "right" ferry - if there's availability - if not.
I believe he has been verified, claims to be a critical care doctor
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fnl0n6/im_a_critical_care_doctor_working_in_a_uk_high/
1/2
I'm sad to say that I do have the details, and there has been intense discussion about this over the past weeks. To answer your question: "herd immunity" would have been a beneficial outcome to slowing virus growth to a prolonged period of time. It was not a primary outcome.
That said, the official policy was wholly wrong and when all the dust has settled, when all the costs and lives have been counted, people have to make their governments accountable.
I'll tell you what happened in the UK.
Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.
But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers (https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic).
So, come 2020 and COVID-19 causes disaster in China, Iran and Italy. Epidemiologists and doctors from around the world observe, and learn valuable lessons:
the virus is insidious with a long incubation, any population actions you take will only have an effect weeks later
the virus spreads remarkably quickly and effectively
the virus causes an unusually large proportion of patients to require invasive ventilatory support
early large scale testing, and social distancing measures, are effective at stopping exponential growth
stopping exponential growth is VITAL to preventing your critical care systems from being overwhelmed.
Everyone in the world could see these things. But despite this, very few governments chose to act.
1/2
The UK did the opposite of acting. In an act of what I see as sheer arrogance, they chose to do nothing, per the early stages of their disaster plan. There was some initial contact tracing, but this stopped when it was clear that there was significant community spread and exponential growth. And after this? They did not ramp up testing capabilities. They did not encourage social distancing. They did not boost PPE supply, or plan for surge capacity. They ignored advice from the WHO, public health experts in other country; epidemiologists, scientists and doctors in their own. I can tell you with certainty now that they did not even collect regular statistics for how many COVID patients were being admitted to critical care in the UK. They did nothing.
What were they thinking? Maybe that what had happened in China, and was happening in Italy, couldn't possibly happen in the UK, right? It was impossible. The persisted with the original plan with no modification.
Well COVID-19 is not flu. That is perfectly clear. And it was clear that the UK numbers were following, exponentially, the same trend as Italy. But still the government and their advisers stuck to their guns and put out reassuring messages. I would ask here - why did they still think we would be different?
Finally, a team at Imperial informing the government's response put up-to-date COVID-19 data into the historical models that the UK plan was based on (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf), and predicted in a best case scenario 250,000 deaths and excess of 8x surge capacity of UK intensive cares. They concluded that our approach was wrong, and that "Epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time".
Where are we now?
The government has instituted a number of measures that they previously called "unscientific", but has not mandated them.
We are far, far into the exponential curve both in deaths and critical care numbers, and there is at least two weeks more growth until any of the half-hearted measures taken might kick in.
We do not have sufficient testing capability for even hospital patients, who sometimes wait days for a test result. There are not enough tests for anyone in the community, or any healthcare workers who might have symptoms.
Hospitals are scrambling to produce surge capacity, and several smaller hospitals in London are now overwhelmed with COVID and out of ventilators.
There is clearly not enough PPE in the country and we are rushing to secure supplies.
2/2
"The next priority, experts said, is extreme social distancing.
If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt."
I will not evict my tenants in these dark times, even if they can't pay. We will sort out the details later.
I'm looking for something to study, as well. Whether I will keep it up - no idea. Singing is currently appealing if I can find an online teacher.
Also planning to read an appropriate book I have had my eye on for some time - Sir Francis Chichester's account of his solo circummnavigation: Gyspy Moth Circles the World.
The plan at this point was to get some social life back after the death of my caree before Christmas. But that has gone West.
But the feeling is like Fats Waller:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSNPpssruFY
I assume the idea is that any notice currently served is invalid, and will need to re-served, for a further three months from now. Seems weak to me*, but not as bad as mde out
*after all, three months may not prove enough... plus the Court's won't be sitting
I suspect time will tell one way or another.
We will pay a terrible price for it in terms of deaths and sacrificing the oldest most poorly over next few weeks imo via rationing ventilators.
Taxpayers will also pay Trillion £+ trying to make up ground and stop the economy going to rat shit as well as firefighting the Tsunami of deaths.
CCGs at their most important ever right now!!
In practice for HB Tenants I would offer to reduce it to the level of HB, for example, and do more if necessary.
The one that has not had attention is student rents if Universities close down, though there is no hardship as student finance has not been withdrawn for Unis that are not operating, and eg Nottingham Uni is currently running courses online.
US politics is massively polarised and, in an election year, everyone's trying to play for political advantage.
Boris is about to come on after all.
Sweden, Greece, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia, etc.....all have less. We have the same as social democrats / socialist favourite European example country, Denmark.
It is correct Germany have way way more.