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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited March 2020
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scientist by Boris says virus does not last well outside so better to be outside than inside for your physical and mental health in some respects provided you are not congregating and are social distancing

    That coincides with the advice the NHS workers told my brother after they told him he had tested positive. No problem being outside - possibly helpful if symptoms are mild - but keep well away from other people.
    Your brother has it Stodge? - hope he makes a speedy recovery
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    nunu2 said:

    He is never going to pull the trigger is he....

    Hasn't got the guts. Which he will regret.
    If his scientists tell him to pull the trigger, do you think he wouldn't?

    If his scientists tell him now is not the right time to pull the trigger, do you think he should anyway?
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 207
    The US stats look scary. Almost a 50% rise on yesterday.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Balrog said:

    The US stats look scary. Almost a 50% rise on yesterday.

    New York is pretty bad
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    IanB2 said:

    glw said:

    Jonathan said:
    I think this disease isn't quite deadly enough to provoke the required response by the public. It's enough to make people concerned, but not quite enough to make people scared. Too many people are thinking that 1% CFR, and mainly affecting the over 70s, means that they can carry on as normal; and they are not considering what it means if many millions of people are infected. I think we'd probably do better with something deadlier like SARS threatening us.
    Most of us have had an operation, and the average death rate during surgery is in the region of 0.6%, or around 2% if you include deaths in the few months immediately after surgery. Anything in the 1-2% range feels like a risk worth taking.
    I am sorry dont believe those figures
    worldwide 4.2 million deaths from 313 million surgeries world wide yes, and that is only 1.3% within 30 days of surgery, but a lot of those deaths are not occuring in first world countries. It is also just over half what you claimed

    source https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)33139-8/fulltext
  • Balrog said:

    The US stats look scary. Almost a 50% rise on yesterday.

    That does not surprise me.

    The US look in serious trouble and as for Trump dealing with it - give me strength
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor has gone into quarantine after being informed that a doctor who administered a vaccine to her has tested positive for the new coronavirus.

    More as we get it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    18 year old dies in UK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,718

    Balrog said:

    The US stats look scary. Almost a 50% rise on yesterday.

    That does not surprise me.

    The US look in serious trouble and as for Trump dealing with it - give me strength
    https://twitter.com/FLOTUS/status/1241783176248406017?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    stodge said:

    Pagan2 said:


    I think you are wrong here. I am very far from a fan of this government however it is absolutely not helpful currently second guessing every move and diverting them from getting on top of the problem into the channels of rebutting criticism.

    After the crisis yes we call them to account while being aware we are blessed with hindsight and they weren't when making the decisions. A lot of the crap being thrown though is decidely not helping matters get resolved.

    Few of us have the in depth information nor the knowledge to make the best interpretation so let us just trust the science bods advising know what they are doing

    Fair enough but after this is all over I think an full in-depth enquiry into what decisions were or were not taken and the scientific evidence and bases used to support these decisions doesn't seem unreasonable.

    Yes, of course we don't have all the information but even if you do it doesn't guarantee the correct conclusions are drawn and the correct decisions made.
    Yes a full enquiry afterwards should be made, I think though possibly it would be best to be a "not to blame and find fault, but to find out where we could have done better to learn for the next time" style
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    IanB2 said:

    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19

    Jeepers. That's petrifying... we are testing heavily in hospitals here and the rate is nothing like that. The US is going to be a total catastrophe. Really sad.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19

    Oh boy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.

    Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.

    No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.

    It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
    Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.

    Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.

    Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
    Nowhere
    It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.

    But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
    You should try a virtual birthday party, not sure how you do it but it must be possible.
    I think the sudden desire for the countryside is more to do with squeezing the behaviour of masses of people - if you shut the pubs, cafes etc, they will do *something*

    It is worth noting that in every single country that imposed "lock downs" it was an iterative process of shutting stuff down to get people to keep distance.

    The reason that you can't simply command this, is that you would need the entire Chinese army plus the system of state repression to simply order people to do X.

    If you want several months of lockdown, the vast majority of public will need to buy into this.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Barnesian said:

    FF43 said:

    Barnesian said:

    DougSeal said:

    FF43 said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think PB has an unhealthy proportionof authoritarians ("Do as you are told FFS") and hysterics ("It's the end of the world as we know it").

    This will turn out to be serious case of seasonal flu (20K dead in UK) with a massive overaction that causes more harm than the disease.

    Cue for authoritarians and hysterics to do their thing....

    I really, really don't think the situations in Hubei and Italy can be described as "serious cases of seasonal flu". There have been no convincing arguments that we will avoid going down the same route here.
    Let’s see what happens in China now restrictions are being relaxed. If it comes back (other than through reimportation from abroad) then you have a point. If it doesn’t then Barnsean may be right.
    That is key. It is possible that China is not seeing more cases because it is saturated. 50-60% already have had it. That's one explanation. If it comes back big time then my hypothesis is incorrect.
    This is incorrect. The Chinese policy was precisely to ensure almost noone outside of Hubei got the virus.
    But many people outside Hubei did get it.
    Furthermore, notoriously, Chinese policy in the early days of the outbreak was to deny there was a problem. This idea that there was an immediate lockdown and the Chinese did it great is revisionism. They were arresting doctors for saying there was a problem.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.

    Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.

    No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.

    It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
    Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.

    Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.

    Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
    Nowhere
    It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.

    But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
    You should try a virtual birthday party, not sure how you do it but it must be possible.
    I think the sudden desire for the countryside is more to do with squeezing the behaviour of masses of people - if you shut the pubs, cafes etc, they will do *something*

    It is worth noting that in every single country that imposed "lock downs" it was an iterative process of shutting stuff down to get people to keep distance.

    The reason that you can't simply command this, is that you would need the entire Chinese army plus the system of state repression to simply order people to do X.

    If you want several months of lockdown, the vast majority of public will need to buy into this.
    Next time we just offer free skiing holidays and get rid of all the irresponsible people maybe?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Sitting on a hill top yesterday, I was looking at other hills wondering how many were heading upwards. Was there a determination to secure some bragging rights by heading to the highest summit Snowdon rather than Moel Siabod? It wasn't difficult to keep away from others, but it isn't often that I have stood in a queue to take a photo on a summit.

    For some people will be tough to stay cool and calm if they can't go out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020
    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.
  • Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited March 2020
    Just been out for a walk in a moorland area. It wasn't very busy at 4pm. Easy to keep a distance from other people.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    IanB2 said:

    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19

    The governor was on earlier saying they need twice the capacity they currently have just to manage.
  • Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    to be fair being threatened by gove would sort of like being mauled by a gummy bear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    You can never just threaten a lockdown or pre-announce it. You have to come straight out and say its happening now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.

    Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.

    No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.

    It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
    Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.

    Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.

    Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
    Nowhere
    It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.

    But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
    You should try a virtual birthday party, not sure how you do it but it must be possible.
    I think the sudden desire for the countryside is more to do with squeezing the behaviour of masses of people - if you shut the pubs, cafes etc, they will do *something*

    It is worth noting that in every single country that imposed "lock downs" it was an iterative process of shutting stuff down to get people to keep distance.

    The reason that you can't simply command this, is that you would need the entire Chinese army plus the system of state repression to simply order people to do X.

    If you want several months of lockdown, the vast majority of public will need to buy into this.
    Next time we just offer free skiing holidays and get rid of all the irresponsible people maybe?
    We could randomly murder a number of people per day pour encourage les autres.
  • This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,349
    edited March 2020

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Pagan2 said:





    I think his final bit re public health is worth quoting. I have noticed that in the public arena, politicians and wonks and medics are talking about vaccination like it's going to be brilliant. They're looking desperately for an exit route from the current chaos. There are difficult issues with mass vaccination, including some delicate ethical problems - eg it is almost certain there will be some vaccine-related adverse events, but the benefits to children of being vaccinated are, on an individual level, likely to be low in the case of COVID-19. Effectively we asking that age group to accept harm in order to confer a benefit on a different group of older or more vulnerable adults. Although not publicised in the media so much (have they learned lessons from Wakefield/MMR?) these perspectives are still fairly well-known and understood. There is though a much more troubling point that I have seen discussed in public health circles, don't think I've ever seen it in the media, suspect isn't common knowledge in political circles, and is subject to grave uncertainty:

    I think the bigger worry is even if the vaccine works now will Covid19 come back next year in mutated form and will the same vaccine still work, that is even if you believe a vaccine will be ready soon which frankly I don't. Our successful vaccines for corona have scant evidence
    We have lots of vaccines for coronaviruses, although there are some (e.g. FIP) that we can't treat effectively. But, like rhinovirus, they are difficult.
    I'm sorry, I thought we had none.

    My bad. :neutral:
    Well we have them for cats (feline infectious peritonitis) and dogs (canine distemper)...
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    Not much social distancing going on where I live.

    I am in a rural coastal area the coast is 200 metres away from me and usually relatively deserted mudflats with only a few brave souls venturing out. Today has been very busy with people trying to get out into the open air, plenty of older people, little or no attempt at distancing.

    I have been getting a few funny looks as I deliberately alter my path to avoid people. We are not yet taking it seriously enough, BJ will have to impose further restrictions if people disregard the advice.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Pagan2 said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    I did my usual walk to the reservoir with the dogs today, for the last 6 months I would normally see 2-3 people there, but today there were about 150. I've never seen it even 25% as crowded.

    Grannies, parents and kids all going out together and mixing with other families, taking up the whole width of the path, so social distancing was impossible for anyone walking the other way. Also saw an ice cream van operating.

    No one here is bothering to try to avoid getting the virus, so we're all going to have to be locked down thanks to these idiots.

    It’s a Sunday, most people are normally at home. They must fear an imminent lockdown if walks in the countryside have suddenly become so attractive. Either that, or more people have read that CDC advice about exercise and sunshine than I would have imagined.
    Its Mothers Day. Most people are normally out.

    Here at least it is the first sunny warm Spring day of the year. Most people are normally out.

    Pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc are closed so where else are people meant to go?
    Nowhere
    It was a rhetorical question. My wife, children and I have cancelled our Mothers Day plans and stayed home today. Its my daughters birthday next week, we've cancelled her birthday party and told relatives we'll see them on video and they can either hold on to presents or post them.

    But people who don't care and want to go out are going to parks because its where they can go not a sudden desire for the countryside. If the parks close many people will still go out somewhere else instead. That is one danger of closing down things is it funnels people into fewer and fewer venues if they're too stubborn and stupid not to just stay at home.
    You should try a virtual birthday party, not sure how you do it but it must be possible.
    I think the sudden desire for the countryside is more to do with squeezing the behaviour of masses of people - if you shut the pubs, cafes etc, they will do *something*

    It is worth noting that in every single country that imposed "lock downs" it was an iterative process of shutting stuff down to get people to keep distance.

    The reason that you can't simply command this, is that you would need the entire Chinese army plus the system of state repression to simply order people to do X.

    If you want several months of lockdown, the vast majority of public will need to buy into this.
    Next time we just offer free skiing holidays and get rid of all the irresponsible people maybe?
    We could randomly murder a number of people per day pour encourage les autres.
    That would be a little unfair surely some of those random people will be responsible
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    This is biggest example of over-analysing a situation I've ever read.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited March 2020

    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
    And that's why you keep him busy out and about bashing heads in....
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    nunu2 said:

    He is never going to pull the trigger is he....

    Hasn't got the guts. Which he will regret.
    If his scientists tell him to pull the trigger, do you think he wouldn't?

    If his scientists tell him now is not the right time to pull the trigger, do you think he should anyway?
    Incidentally, I hope anyone who watched that conference listened carefully to what Dr Jenny Harries (deputy chief medical officer for England) was saying. She was pretty much in lockstep with Boris, even on fraught issues about going outside, and if you deconstructed the meaning and intent of her words and compared them to Boris then I don't think one was more decisive and one was more waffly flim-flam. (Boris often sounds like he's serving up waffle and that probably isn't great right now in terms of delivering clarity of message, but the Deputy CMO was also, shall we say, "nuanced".) On the basis that that's the kind of advice Boris is receiving right now, I can't say his actions seem at odds with that.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    People really are their own worst enemies

    Almost 71,000 Italians face punishment after being stopped by the police for breaking the country's curfew.

    Erica Di Blasi has more from Turin:

    The figure, for the period between the start of the restrictions almost two weeks ago and March 20, represents 4.3 per cent of the total of 1.65 million people stopped by the authorities while out on the streets.

    A further 1,600 people face punishment for making false claims.

    The number of charges far exceeds the number of Italians who have coronavirus, which stood at 42,681 yesterday.

    On Friday the police checked 223,633 people and took action against 9,888 of them, a record since the start of the curfew.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,349
    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    This is biggest example of over-analysing a situation I've ever read.
    I couldn't put it better myself. Thanks.

  • Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Cases in New York have more than doubled since yesterday. As a country the State would come in sixth in the world
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
    And that's why you keep him busy out and about bashing heads in....
    Ok just had to go relook at pictures of Dominic Cummings like Gove he doesn't exactly look like when in a fight with a wet paper bag he would win
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    RobD said:

    Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.

    I imagine if this was possible, we'd have found out about it by now.
    So do I, I am just asking why. The above is just the principle of innoculation as I understand it.
    Nah, you are describing immunisation.

    Inoculation is where you give a related virus - or more strictly speaking a related illness - so that you benefit from some natural immunity against the original disease (e.g. cowpox/smallpox)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    And while we are at, dickhead question of the day from the press, are there enough ventilators.

    No, there isn't anywhere in the world, that is what the government have said repeatedly and why the likes of F1 teams and G-Tech are working their nuts off to produce low-cost alternatives.

    What a f##king waste of oxygen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I think whoever gave the advice there would still be people who don't listen.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Floater said:

    Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor has gone into quarantine after being informed that a doctor who administered a vaccine to her has tested positive for the new coronavirus.

    More as we get it.

    The doctor was administering a vaccine to her? A vaccine for Covid-19? I thought such a thing didn't exist.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Pagan2 said:

    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
    And that's why you keep him busy out and about bashing heads in....
    Ok just had to go relook at pictures of Dominic Cummings like Gove he doesn't exactly look like when in a fight with a wet paper bag he would win
    Do you want to get stuck talking to him for very long? People would be rushing in their homes in no time.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
  • Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    The strategy is Cobra's and Boris and Sturgeon were on the same page today

    Also both threatened further measures and such measures come through Cobra

    I expect more measures this week and to those fixated on Cummings, as far as I know he does not attend Cobra
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Pagan2 said:

    This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
    And that's why you keep him busy out and about bashing heads in....
    Ok just had to go relook at pictures of Dominic Cummings like Gove he doesn't exactly look like when in a fight with a wet paper bag he would win
    Do you want to get stuck talking to him for very long? People would be rushing in their homes in no time.
    I don't talk to politicians I walk away
  • This is where we really need Gove rather Boris. He would have been straight out with right dickheads, get in your houses now, I have had enough of this bullshit. If you don't do, I'm sending Big Dom round to kick your heads in.

    Dom is a huge part of the problem here. He sees the whole thing as a half-baked behavioural experiment.
    And that's why you keep him busy out and about bashing heads in....
    There is nothing in Cummings' character that would suggest for a single moment that he would settle for a role as the PM's loyal enforcer. Whenever he gets nasty, he does it for his own reasons.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,681

    Is it me or had Covid-19 shown that pub landlords are all bumholes?

    https://twitter.com/newcolaudrup/status/1241525575895973888?s=21

    Brain dead morons
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    How far has it been followed? Put a number to it?

    I'd estimate on a normal Mothering Sunday with sunny weather at least half of the country would have gone out. 40 million plus socially gathering?

    How many people are socially gathering today? Bars, restaurants etc that would be SOLD OUT today normally are shut and empty. We're seeing reports of thousands in parks - not tens of millions.

    If 40 million would go out normally and 400,000 have today then 99% have got the message.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19

    Oh boy
    In a way it’s good news, underlining the existence of people who, like Senator Paul, are carriers without even realising they have it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    I am still struggling to figure out how sitting in the park swigging tinnies constitutes beneficial exercise.

    And while those twats are sitting in the park, Bozo is sitting on the fence.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "Angela Merkel goes into quarantine as her doctor tests positive for Covid-19"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-22/angela-merkel-goes-into-quarantine-as-her-doctor-tests-positive-for-covid-19/
  • IanB2 said:

    Cases in New York have more than doubled since yesterday. As a country the State would come in sixth in the world

    At his new conference today, the NY Governor said the state needed to go from 53,000 hospital beds to 110,000. There are currently 2,000 hospitalised with coronavirus in NY.
    Do the "math" and this shows how bad they think it is going to get.
  • bunnco said:

    I'm probably one of the few people on here who has met Boris this week in Downing Street as part of a team working to coordinate the work of National and Local Government, much of which has been announced this evening.

    Having seen Boris at first hand sat around the Cabinet table in No10, I can report that he is absolutely focused on his brief, engaged and driven, compassionate but decisive. He has wrapped around him some excellent public servants and, in particular Robert Jenrick and Matt Hancock in significant leadership roles with Rishi Sunak doing the economic heavy lifting.

    I haven't always been a Boris fan. But he is absolutely the right man for the moment with exceptional strength in depth focused on the right response. My meeting demonstrated that there is a plan from Whitehall to your Village Hall that focuses on one family at a time. Together we will beat this virus.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Time some on here got over their hatred of Boris and let him get on with the job
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    “The oldies destroyed my future by voting for Brexitand not satisfied they’re destroying my present by forcing us all indoor for weeks/months for their own protection”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.

    I imagine if this was possible, we'd have found out about it by now.
    So do I, I am just asking why. The above is just the principle of innoculation as I understand it.
    Nah, you are describing immunisation.

    Inoculation is where you give a related virus - or more strictly speaking a related illness - so that you benefit from some natural immunity against the original disease (e.g. cowpox/smallpox)
    No, the cowpox vaccine wasn't called an inoculation. The smallpox puss one was.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587
    edited March 2020

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    How far has it been followed? Put a number to it?

    I'd estimate on a normal Mothering Sunday with sunny weather at least half of the country would have gone out. 40 million plus socially gathering?

    How many people are socially gathering today? Bars, restaurants etc that would be SOLD OUT today normally are shut and empty. We're seeing reports of thousands in parks - not tens of millions.

    If 40 million would go out normally and 400,000 have today then 99% have got the message.
    A guy from Snowdonia National Park said the numbers today were greater than anything he’d seen in thirty years...
  • Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Well, what is the "strategy" if the advice isn't followed?

    The objective is social distancing, following scientific advice. But the strategy is the plan of action by which you achieve that. And that plan has been to put up a Sergeant Wilson type to ask if people wouldn't mind awfully social distancing. It's farcical and was always doomed to fail.
  • bunnco said:

    I'm probably one of the few people on here who has met Boris this week in Downing Street as part of a team working to coordinate the work of National and Local Government, much of which has been announced this evening.

    Having seen Boris at first hand sat around the Cabinet table in No10, I can report that he is absolutely focused on his brief, engaged and driven, compassionate but decisive. He has wrapped around him some excellent public servants and, in particular Robert Jenrick and Matt Hancock in significant leadership roles with Rishi Sunak doing the economic heavy lifting.

    I haven't always been a Boris fan. But he is absolutely the right man for the moment with exceptional strength in depth focused on the right response. My meeting demonstrated that there is a plan from Whitehall to your Village Hall that focuses on one family at a time. Together we will beat this virus.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Time some on here got over their hatred of Boris and let him get on with the job
    Time he got on with the job, then.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,681
    tyson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Denspark said:

    latest Uk figures

    As of 9am on 22 March 2020, 78,340 people have been tested in the UK, of which 72,657 were confirmed negative and 5,683 were confirmed positive. 281 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

    So up 665 from yesterday.

    Record number of tests. The percentage of positive tests must be well down.

    Hopefully they are testing NHS front line staff as a priority...so it's good if our test results accuracy is down...
    NHS Scotland is testing all staff
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,587

    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Can any of the folks with medical experience tell me something. Is it impossible to develop an innoculation for Coronavirus? To give someone a small enough dose of Coronavirus to trigger the right immune response without giving them a full blown attack? Or once you've given it to someone have you just given it to someone.

    I imagine if this was possible, we'd have found out about it by now.
    So do I, I am just asking why. The above is just the principle of innoculation as I understand it.
    Nah, you are describing immunisation.

    Inoculation is where you give a related virus - or more strictly speaking a related illness - so that you benefit from some natural immunity against the original disease (e.g. cowpox/smallpox)
    No, the cowpox vaccine wasn't called an inoculation. The smallpox puss one was.
    No.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inoculation
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited March 2020
    US numbers are breathtaking. New cases each day per Worldometer:

    18 Mar - 2,848
    19 Mar - 4,530
    20 Mar - 5,594
    21 Mar - 4,824
    Today - 13,960 SO FAR (cut-off point midnight tonight UK time)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    In todays batch of new deaths includes an 18 year old.
  • alex_ said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    “The oldies destroyed my future by voting for Brexitand not satisfied they’re destroying my present by forcing us all indoor for weeks/months for their own protection”
    That is just a horrible post - shame on you
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Floater said:

    People really are their own worst enemies

    Almost 71,000 Italians face punishment after being stopped by the police for breaking the country's curfew.

    Erica Di Blasi has more from Turin:

    The figure, for the period between the start of the restrictions almost two weeks ago and March 20, represents 4.3 per cent of the total of 1.65 million people stopped by the authorities while out on the streets.

    A further 1,600 people face punishment for making false claims.

    The number of charges far exceeds the number of Italians who have coronavirus, which stood at 42,681 yesterday.

    On Friday the police checked 223,633 people and took action against 9,888 of them, a record since the start of the curfew.

    9,888 from 223,633 is a lot of bribes ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    MikeL said:

    US numbers are breathtaking. New cases each day per Worldometer:

    18 Mar - 2,848
    19 Mar - 4,530
    20 Mar - 5,594
    21 Mar - 4,824
    Today - 13,960 SO FAR (cut-off point midnight tonight UK time)

    We are certainly going to see how herd immunity strategy works and how much of iceberg-y the disease is.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    I interpret the press conference as Johnson flagging up a lockdown.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I am still struggling to figure out how sitting in the park swigging tinnies constitutes beneficial exercise.

    And while those twats are sitting in the park, Bozo is sitting on the fence.

    What makes you think people swigging tinnies will listen to the PM in the first place?
  • MikeL said:

    US numbers are breathtaking. New cases each day per Worldometer:

    18 Mar - 2,848
    19 Mar - 4,530
    20 Mar - 5,594
    21 Mar - 4,824
    Today - 13,960 SO FAR (cut-off point midnight tonight UK time)

    In fairness, this could just be a change to testing policy (hence Rand Paul testing positive despite no symptoms).

    Not saying it necessarily is, but we shouldn't immediately assume an increase in confirmed cases is (entirely) a major escalation of the situation.
  • bunnco said:

    I'm probably one of the few people on here who has met Boris this week in Downing Street as part of a team working to coordinate the work of National and Local Government, much of which has been announced this evening.

    Having seen Boris at first hand sat around the Cabinet table in No10, I can report that he is absolutely focused on his brief, engaged and driven, compassionate but decisive. He has wrapped around him some excellent public servants and, in particular Robert Jenrick and Matt Hancock in significant leadership roles with Rishi Sunak doing the economic heavy lifting.

    I haven't always been a Boris fan. But he is absolutely the right man for the moment with exceptional strength in depth focused on the right response. My meeting demonstrated that there is a plan from Whitehall to your Village Hall that focuses on one family at a time. Together we will beat this virus.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    Time some on here got over their hatred of Boris and let him get on with the job
    Time he got on with the job, then.
    So you ignore the evidence placed in front of you.

    Or did you ignore it as it does not support your argument
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The figures today from Italy and Britain are mildly encouraging. The figures from the USA look terrifying.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Well, what is the "strategy" if the advice isn't followed?

    The objective is social distancing, following scientific advice. But the strategy is the plan of action by which you achieve that. And that plan has been to put up a Sergeant Wilson type to ask if people wouldn't mind awfully social distancing. It's farcical and was always doomed to fail.
    Call me Philitas of Cos if you like but tactics is how you achieve your strategy. Strategy is what you broadly want to achieve
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Yes, I'd like Johnson and Patel and (if he gets a say in this) Khan to stop faffing around with "if you don't do what we advise we may have to take further measures, perhaps even the police." Get on with it already FFS. (I thought Patel was supposed to be fearsomely tough - so where is she when we actually need toughness?)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,856
    IanB2 said:

    Half of patients tested at one New York health care system yesterday were positive for Covid-19

    Trump ahead of his time on this one -

    "American Carnage"
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited March 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Without opining on the substance of the measures, I have no problem with Johnson's demeanour and tone in these briefings. It works OK for me.

    People are desperate for us to be treated like children, or for an authoritarian regime. Today was Sunday, and Mother’s Day, obviously tomorrow and the rest of the week will see fewer people out and about in parks etc
  • FF43 said:

    I interpret the press conference as Johnson flagging up a lockdown.

    I think that is a fair conclusion
  • The figures today from Italy and Britain are mildly encouraging. The figures from the USA look terrifying.

    I agree .

    The US as a Country is going to have to be locked away internationally for months
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    How far has it been followed? Put a number to it?

    I'd estimate on a normal Mothering Sunday with sunny weather at least half of the country would have gone out. 40 million plus socially gathering?

    How many people are socially gathering today? Bars, restaurants etc that would be SOLD OUT today normally are shut and empty. We're seeing reports of thousands in parks - not tens of millions.

    If 40 million would go out normally and 400,000 have today then 99% have got the message.
    A guy from Snowdonia National Park said the numbers today were greater than anything he’d seen in thirty years...
    And the point of that is?

    Given that virtually every pub, bar and restaurant in the entire country (which would have overwhelmingly been sold out today) have been shut and the only place people have been told it is appropriate to go to is a park - that should surely be filed under "No Shit Sherlock".

    It says nothing about numbers.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    The question haunting me about the public's behaviour is: What's wrong with venison? It's lean and pound-for-pound must be one of the most nutritious things out there. If you're panic-buying meat for a lockdown, I mean forget fucking Bambi you sentimental idiots.

    In the smaller, more local world, where we stay within our communities, we will be thrilled that we have venison.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631

    (I thought Patel was supposed to be fearsomely tough )

    Is this you telling us she is a closet dominatrix Nick?

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    Is it me or had Covid-19 shown that pub landlords are all bumholes?

    https://twitter.com/newcolaudrup/status/1241525575895973888?s=21

    Brain dead morons
    No more than the fitness fanatics working out in open air gyms on top of each other or the cyclist congregating at an outdoor cafe in the 100’s
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    This is biggest example of over-analysing a situation I've ever read.
    Indeed - the phenomenon of the self-centredness associated with teenagers is well documented. Growing up is supposed to reduce this....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Without opining on the substance of the measures, I have no problem with Johnson's demeanour and tone in these briefings. It works OK for me.

    People are desperate for us to be treated like children, or for an authoritarian regime. Today was Sunday, and Mother’s Day, obviously tomorrow and the rest of the week will see fewer people out and about in parks etc
    With schools and businesses shut up and down the country I wouldn't rely upon Monday seeing parks be massively less popular.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Yes, I'd like Johnson and Patel and (if he gets a say in this) Khan to stop faffing around with "if you don't do what we advise we may have to take further measures, perhaps even the police." Get on with it already FFS. (I thought Patel was supposed to be fearsomely tough - so where is she when we actually need toughness?)
    And Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster. They are all involved in Cobra
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,681
    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    eadric said:
    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
    Death is at most a two week lagging indicator.

    Barnesian said:

    eadric said:
    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
    Death is a lagging indicator of about than two weeks from infection and one week from symptoms in the rare cases that death results.

    If 10% of the polulation is already infected (most with no symptoms) and it rises to 50% that means five times more deaths , plus two weeks lag (at a doubling every 5 days) giving another multiple of 4 i.e. 20 times the current numer of deaths. 20 x 250 deaths is 5,000. About average for seasonal flu.
    "The mean time from onset to death is 20 (17–24) days, with a standard deviation of 10 (7–14) days."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

    but you say, without authority, one week. You have also selfishly endangered lives by going to Italy to ski because Covid death numbers are trivial compared to Italian road deaths (current score road deaths 3300 annually Covid 4850 in 6 weeks). It is not my job to stop you being an arse on the internet, but please leave the statistics alone because you aren't very good at either stating or interpreting them. You have done enough damage, surely?
    My Dad is on day 16 in HDU. I would rather not have believed 7 days, if only momentarily.
    Fingers crossed for you Charles, having recently gone through it with my wife for over a month , I hope it goes well for you.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Without opining on the substance of the measures, I have no problem with Johnson's demeanour and tone in these briefings. It works OK for me.

    People are desperate for us to be treated like children, or for an authoritarian regime. Today was Sunday, and Mother’s Day, obviously tomorrow and the rest of the week will see fewer people out and about in parks etc
    No people are peeved that people aren't doing their best to help cut transmission when they themselves are doing the right thing and think therefore if people won't be adults they should be treated like the juveniles they are showing themselves up to be
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626

    Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Yes, I'd like Johnson and Patel and (if he gets a say in this) Khan to stop faffing around with "if you don't do what we advise we may have to take further measures, perhaps even the police." Get on with it already FFS. (I thought Patel was supposed to be fearsomely tough - so where is she when we actually need toughness?)
    David Blunkett screaming for men with machine guns?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    edited March 2020

    alex_ said:

    algarkirk said:

    David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.

    https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

    So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.

    It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.

    Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.

    This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.

    I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.

    “The oldies destroyed my future by voting for Brexitand not satisfied they’re destroying my present by forcing us all indoor for weeks/months for their own protection”
    That is just a horrible post - shame on you
    The people involved aren't thinking of anything but themselves - just "I want to do X".

    I previously mentioned a friend, well educated, recovering from cancer. Has heard all the government information on self isolation. Spends half the time on facebook pushing every meme associated with the virus. Desperately tries *not* to self-isolate, despite not needing to go out at all : Good sized house, partner, garden to sit in, stocked up on food. It's fascinating to watch the thought process at work.
  • Monkeys said:

    The question haunting me about the public's behaviour is: What's wrong with venison? It's lean and pound-for-pound must be one of the most nutritious things out there. If you're panic-buying meat for a lockdown, I mean forget fucking Bambi you sentimental idiots.

    In the smaller, more local world, where we stay within our communities, we will be thrilled that we have venison.

    We've also got a proper butcher and bakery, both of whom have offered delivery services to those in need. My local village pub is delivering craft ale. Moving out of the city was a great idea, it turns out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Monkeys said:

    The question haunting me about the public's behaviour is: What's wrong with venison? It's lean and pound-for-pound must be one of the most nutritious things out there. If you're panic-buying meat for a lockdown, I mean forget fucking Bambi you sentimental idiots.

    In the smaller, more local world, where we stay within our communities, we will be thrilled that we have venison.

    until you get hung for poaching the King's deer...
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited March 2020
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Can Johnson just resign in favour of Sunak now?

    Johnson's press conferences have been mortifying. At best several yards off the pace, and at worst utterly callous and Cummings-driven. He does not have a grip of the situation and never lets a chance of under-steering pass him by. The inquiry when all this is over will be horrific.

    Utter nonsense
    Look at the "advice" Johnson has given out at his press conferences, and look at how far it has been followed.

    Res ipsa loquitur.

    I don't say it as an anti-Tory point - I think Sunak has handled his role very well for example. But Johnson and the wider strategy has been dreadful.
    I dont think you can say look at the advice and how it has been followed and claim the strategy is dreadful....I think you can say how the strategy has been communicated is less forceful than needed
    Well, what is the "strategy" if the advice isn't followed?

    The objective is social distancing, following scientific advice. But the strategy is the plan of action by which you achieve that. And that plan has been to put up a Sergeant Wilson type to ask if people wouldn't mind awfully social distancing. It's farcical and was always doomed to fail.
    Call me Philitas of Cos if you like but tactics is how you achieve your strategy. Strategy is what you broadly want to achieve
    No it isn't, that's your aim or objective.

    If you look in a dictionary, "strategy" will be defined as something like a detailed plan for achieving one or more aims or objectives.

    "Tactics" are particular actions in support of a wider strategy, while "logistics" are the organisational method supporting the strategy.

    To give an example, the objective of a guerilla force might be to drive away an occupying power. The strategy may be to make it inordinately expensive to maintain the occupation in a number of specified ways. One tactic in support of that may be destroying infrastructure, and the logistics supporting that might include a command structure, supply chain etc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    eadric said:
    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
    Death is at most a two week lagging indicator.

    Barnesian said:

    eadric said:
    More evidence that the virus is much more contagious and much less dangerous than assumed.

    % infected x fatality rate = deaths
    Deaths are known so if %infected is higher, then fatality rate is lower.
    This is delusional wishful thinking, I'm afraid. Death is a lagging indicator, so if the virus is spreading very fast, it just means there are a lot of people walking around who are contagious, and some of them are themselves doomed.
    Death is a lagging indicator of about than two weeks from infection and one week from symptoms in the rare cases that death results.

    If 10% of the polulation is already infected (most with no symptoms) and it rises to 50% that means five times more deaths , plus two weeks lag (at a doubling every 5 days) giving another multiple of 4 i.e. 20 times the current numer of deaths. 20 x 250 deaths is 5,000. About average for seasonal flu.
    "The mean time from onset to death is 20 (17–24) days, with a standard deviation of 10 (7–14) days."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

    but you say, without authority, one week. You have also selfishly endangered lives by going to Italy to ski because Covid death numbers are trivial compared to Italian road deaths (current score road deaths 3300 annually Covid 4850 in 6 weeks). It is not my job to stop you being an arse on the internet, but please leave the statistics alone because you aren't very good at either stating or interpreting them. You have done enough damage, surely?
    My Dad is on day 16 in HDU. I would rather not have believed 7 days, if only momentarily.
    Fingers crossed for you Charles, having recently gone through it with my wife for over a month , I hope it goes well for you.
    thank you
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,681
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The only possible argument is they fear a backlash, possibly violence in some hotspots.
    Get the troops in and if there is violence shoot a few of them.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    Charles said:

    Monkeys said:

    The question haunting me about the public's behaviour is: What's wrong with venison? It's lean and pound-for-pound must be one of the most nutritious things out there. If you're panic-buying meat for a lockdown, I mean forget fucking Bambi you sentimental idiots.

    In the smaller, more local world, where we stay within our communities, we will be thrilled that we have venison.

    until you get hung for poaching the King's deer...
    We don't currently have a king so we are safe
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,631
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The only possible argument is they fear a backlash, possibly violence in some hotspots.
    Get the troops in and if there is violence shoot a few of them.
    behave or the soldiers get shot? not sure that will work
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745


    Time some on here got over their hatred of Boris and let him get on with the job

    You're the one throwing words like "hatred" around. People have a right to ask questions, scrutinise what is being down in their name and criticise it if they don't agree or understand.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pagan2 said:

    Charles said:

    Monkeys said:

    The question haunting me about the public's behaviour is: What's wrong with venison? It's lean and pound-for-pound must be one of the most nutritious things out there. If you're panic-buying meat for a lockdown, I mean forget fucking Bambi you sentimental idiots.

    In the smaller, more local world, where we stay within our communities, we will be thrilled that we have venison.

    until you get hung for poaching the King's deer...
    We don't currently have a king so we are safe
    Do you still swear fealty to the Duke of Cornwall?
This discussion has been closed.