On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Made me think of the Tom Paxton apocalyptic song 'Whose Garden Was This' stunningly covered by Vera Lynn who turned 103 this week https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5enrDrTWBO8
Ok just read the Imperial College Coronavirus report printed in the Observer today.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!) For 60-69 year olds 16.6% 70 - 79 year olds 24.3% 80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
Made me think of the Tom Paxton apocalyptic song 'Whose Garden Was This' stunningly covered by Vera Lynn who turned 103 this week https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5enrDrTWBO8
Ok just read the Imperial College Coronavirus report printed in the Observer today.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!) For 60-69 year olds 16.6% 70 - 79 year olds 24.3% 80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
That is the thing that jumped out at me and I posted it on here.
However, people are crap at assessing risk...People will see 10%, and think well that's pretty low right. Even if you say imagine 10 people, 1 of you will be in hospital, people will still say, well that's not bad odds and I am fitter than 9 people I know, so bugger social distancing I'm off on a group ride.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Don't Die Of Ignorance needs to be resurrected, for sure. This namby pamby wash your hands stuff isn't doing a damned thing.
Ok just read the Imperial College Coronavirus report printed in the Observer today.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!) For 60-69 year olds 16.6% 70 - 79 year olds 24.3% 80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
That is the thing that jumped out at me and I posted it on here.
However, people are crap at assessing risk...People will see 10%, and think well that's pretty low right. Even if you say imagine 10 people, 1 of you will be in hospital, people will still say, well that's not bad odds and I am fitter than 9 people I know, so bugger social distancing I'm off on a group ride.
Give them a 10 round revolver with one bullet and see if they want to play russian roulette.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Yes agreed.
Now would be a good time on the basis that a) we can't turn time back and do it last week and b) all the panic buyers are well-stocked up already.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
I'm transitioning to Ecoauthoritarian. Wor Lass has been there for a while.
But of a mouthful - there is a four letter word beginning with c that admirably caters for that group.
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Yes agreed.
Now would be a good time on the basis that a) we can't turn time back and do it last week and b) all the panic buyers are well-stocked up already.
The other ads I would run is showing how you being an inconsiderate arsehole risks infecting lots of and lots of people...have the ad with individual showing the virus on their hands, touch a handle, then 4-5 people come along and touch, then go and sit on a bench, cough all over it, some cute kid gets it, etc.
Ok just read the Imperial College Coronavirus report printed in the Observer today.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!) For 60-69 year olds 16.6% 70 - 79 year olds 24.3% 80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
That is the thing that jumped out at me and I posted it on here.
However, people are crap at assessing risk...People will see 10%, and think well that's pretty low right. Even if you say imagine 10 people, 1 of you will be in hospital, people will still say, well that's not bad odds and I am fitter than 9 people I know, so bugger social distancing I'm off on a group ride.
Maybe I am in an unusual area but I think you are being very harsh indeed on the population as a whole regarding social distancing. The wife and I have only ventured outside this week to the village Co-Op on combined dog walk/grocery runs and this evening someone got scolded (rightly) by a passer by for getting close to in order to pet our dog while I was inside. On Friday I drove down to the petrol station in Ashford to get some milk and a perfectly spaced (albeit perhaps not quite 2 metres admittedly but much more than normal) queue was formed inside. On a beautiful day in the countryside there were none of the usual mountain bikers and hikers up on the Downs. Yes, the morons are getting named and shamed, but I do think people are starting to get the message.
Ok just read the Imperial College Coronavirus report printed in the Observer today.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!) For 60-69 year olds 16.6% 70 - 79 year olds 24.3% 80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
That is the thing that jumped out at me and I posted it on here.
However, people are crap at assessing risk...People will see 10%, and think well that's pretty low right. Even if you say imagine 10 people, 1 of you will be in hospital, people will still say, well that's not bad odds and I am fitter than 9 people I know, so bugger social distancing I'm off on a group ride.
Maybe I am in an unusual area but I think you are being very harsh indeed on the population as a whole regarding social distancing. The wife and I have only ventured outside this week to the village Co-Op on combined dog walk/grocery runs and this evening someone got scolded (rightly) by a passer by for getting close to in order to pet our dog while I was inside. On Friday I drove down to the petrol station in Ashford to get some milk and a perfectly spaced (albeit perhaps not quite 2 metres admittedly but much more than normal) queue was formed inside. On a beautiful day in the countryside there were none of the usual mountain bikers and hikers up on the Downs. Yes, the morons are getting named and shamed, but I do think people are starting to get the message.
As ever, the vast majority of Britons are behaving well and making informed judgements, and we're getting outraged because some groups of people are being photographed and it's appearing on Twitter. Not even particularly impressive groups from what has been posted here - it's hardly Ben Hur.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Time to make Norman Fowler Health Secretary.
He'll have to do the pressers by video link though - he's 82.
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Thanks Nick. The test results are basically encouraging, but no more.
But what does that mean at this time? Since this drug is on the market, Doctors in the UK are free to prescribe it, so I am not seeing an issue. Is there one?
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Don't Die Of Ignorance needs to be resurrected, for sure. This namby pamby wash your hands stuff isn't doing a damned thing.
Well someone is clearing the shelves of soap and santiser so "wash your hands" is having some effect.
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Don't Die Of Ignorance needs to be resurrected, for sure. This namby pamby wash your hands stuff isn't doing a damned thing.
Well someone is clearing the shelves of soap and santiser so "wash your hands" is having some effect.
You can explain that the current figures are representative of the situation two weeks ago a thousand times can't you...
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
I'm transitioning to Ecoauthoritarian. Wor Lass has been there for a while.
But of a mouthful - there is a four letter word beginning with c that admirably caters for that group.
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Thanks Nick. The test results are basically encouraging, but no more.
But what does that mean at this time? Since this drug is on the market, Doctors in the UK are free to prescribe it, so I am not seeing an issue. Is there one?
some risk of QTc prolongation
Antibiotic resistance is another one, especially if there are secondary infections
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Thanks Nick. The test results are basically encouraging, but no more.
But what does that mean at this time? Since this drug is on the market, Doctors in the UK are free to prescribe it, so I am not seeing an issue. Is there one?
some risk of QTc prolongation
Antibiotic resistance is another one, especially if there are secondary infections
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Thanks Nick. The test results are basically encouraging, but no more.
But what does that mean at this time? Since this drug is on the market, Doctors in the UK are free to prescribe it, so I am not seeing an issue. Is there one?
some risk of QTc prolongation
Antibiotic resistance is another one, especially if there are secondary infections
Given there is no gambling going on, what about Ray Winstone doing the ads....Right dickheads, get this straight, ....
I'm not sure we can blame the public when the messaging is necessarily confusing, changing as new information comes in, and sometimes contradictory.
HMG has just today urged people not to visit second homes, for instance. People are asked not to visit national parks, just days after being urged to visit them. Schools are now closed yet a fortnight ago were kept open to avoid children contaminating their elders (which incidentally an Italian expert on Sky News warned against this evening). Even the Prime Minister got it wrong about Mothers Day.
Subscribe to notifications on gov.uk and see that guidance is updated several times a day.
I notice CH4 did their part for continuing the panic buying by showing a totally irresponsible and fear mongering Dispatches about the food supply this evening.
On Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin, as advocates by Donald Trump. Caution needed, as control group not well matched and not randomised. Also deaths and ICU transfers in treatment group excluded from analysis:
Thanks Nick. The test results are basically encouraging, but no more.
Even that's too strong.
I'd say they are indicative of a hypothesis but no more.
The sample size is tiny (and therefore the risk of being fooled by randomness is high). And the fact that those who were rushed off to intensive care are classified as "incomplete" is absurd. Plus the fact that the control group appeared to have worse infections is a major flaw.
Nevertheless, the results are sufficiently encouraging that we'd want a proper sized test (say 500 patients) as soon as possible.
Given there is no gambling going on, what about Ray Winstone doing the ads....Right dickheads, get this straight, ....
I'm not sure we can blame the public when the messaging is necessarily confusing, changing as new information comes in, and sometimes contradictory.
HMG has just today urged people not to visit second homes, for instance. People are asked not to visit national parks, just days after being urged to visit them. Schools are now closed yet a fortnight ago were kept open to avoid children contaminating their elders (which incidentally an Italian expert on Sky News warned against this evening). Even the Prime Minister got it wrong about Mothers Day.
Subscribe to notifications on gov.uk and see that guidance is updated several times a day.
I'm assuming fourth and fifth homes are OK though.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Well, they’re right. 80% do only get mild symptoms. I know it feels like the endtimes but we need to rely on facts at this time. Of course that doesn’t help if you’re one of the 20% and I am not in any way playing down this at all, and there is a debate to be had about the tone of the governments advice, but scaring the sh*t out of people, as you put it, could be wholly counterproductive when we look at the issues with the stockpiling and other things that are causing so much difficulty for people in this country right now.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Well, they’re right. 80% do only get mild symptoms. I know it feels like the endtimes but we need to rely on facts at this time. Of course that doesn’t help if you’re one of the 20% and I am not in any way playing down this at all, and there is a debate to be had about the tone of the governments advice, but scaring the sh*t out of people, as you put it, could be wholly counterproductive when we look at the issues with the stockpiling and other things that are causing so much difficulty for people in this country right now.
"Well, they’re right. 80% do only get mild symptoms"
You know that includes everybody from nothing, to the worst flu in the world, to people who develop quite serious pneumonia. It just means they didn't need to go to hospital.
The man who wrote the report that stat comes from says he regrets ever says mild, because he said people have really misunderstood the meaning of that.
The real strategy the government has to go for is dropping this 80% only get mild symptoms stuff. Gone is the time not to scare the horses, it should be full on 80s AIDs ads.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Well, they’re right. 80% do only get mild symptoms. I know it feels like the endtimes but we need to rely on facts at this time. Of course that doesn’t help if you’re one of the 20% and I am not in any way playing down this at all, and there is a debate to be had about the tone of the governments advice, but scaring the sh*t out of people, as you put it, could be wholly counterproductive when we look at the issues with the stockpiling and other things that are causing so much difficulty for people in this country right now.
"Well, they’re right. 80% do only get mild symptoms"
You know that includes everybody from nothing, to the worst flu in the world, to people who develop quite serious pneumonia. It just means they didn't need to go to hospital.
The man who wrote the report that stat comes from says he regrets ever says mild, because he said people have really misunderstood the meaning of that.
I am sure that this is a very unpleasant illness for a large chunk of the people who get it (after all we have read so many reports from sufferers that it is obvious that it’s not a nice experience at all). All I am saying is we need a level head too. We are not all going to die. This is not bubonic plague. It is a very scary time and a really serious health crisis, all I am saying is we need to be very careful when we talk about risk.
Comments
https://twitter.com/jpogue1/status/1241138975802359813?s=19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5enrDrTWBO8
Hello to all for a very long time lurker.
I had read it only a few days back but missed this for some reason - their predictions of hospitalisation rates for symptomatic cases. The predictions include:
For my age group (50-59) 10.2% (Wow!)
For 60-69 year olds 16.6%
70 - 79 year olds 24.3%
80+ 27.3%
I am shocked by this. If people realise these levels of hospitalisatios are predicted I think it would go some way towards modifying behaviours.
HMG should put some big ads out to get this message across.
I will try and give some updates over the next few days. It is cathartic for me if anything.
However, people are crap at assessing risk...People will see 10%, and think well that's pretty low right. Even if you say imagine 10 people, 1 of you will be in hospital, people will still say, well that's not bad odds and I am fitter than 9 people I know, so bugger social distancing I'm off on a group ride.
Here is xxx, she is 39, she had no underlying health conditions and is on a ventilator fighting for their life (and that's a story from today).
Next....here is ...
And show the really grim state of lungs in cases from China.
Scare the shit out of people.
Now would be a good time on the basis that a) we can't turn time back and do it last week and b) all the panic buyers are well-stocked up already.
The Brexit reckoning has merely been suspended until the COVID crisis is dealt with
Look at the picture of the guy collapsed at bus stop in Rome - remember when people said similar pics from China were fake news
https://twitter.com/DCMS/status/1241844873482960898?s=20
... but might just as well make it a legal requirement now surely?
I'd say they are indicative of a hypothesis but no more.
Antibiotic resistance is another one, especially if there are secondary infections
https://twitter.com/pbullenBrexit/status/1241818178973503491
HMG has just today urged people not to visit second homes, for instance. People are asked not to visit national parks, just days after being urged to visit them. Schools are now closed yet a fortnight ago were kept open to avoid children contaminating their elders (which incidentally an Italian expert on Sky News warned against this evening). Even the Prime Minister got it wrong about Mothers Day.
Subscribe to notifications on gov.uk and see that guidance is updated several times a day.
'We send 600,000 elderly people to residential care homes.
Let's send them to a mortuary instead'
Night all. Another WFH day beckons...
Nevertheless, the results are sufficiently encouraging that we'd want a proper sized test (say 500 patients) as soon as possible.
You know that includes everybody from nothing, to the worst flu in the world, to people who develop quite serious pneumonia. It just means they didn't need to go to hospital.
The man who wrote the report that stat comes from says he regrets ever says mild, because he said people have really misunderstood the meaning of that.