Chinese media outlets seem very keen to promote this narrative...
Interesting, they have yet to find out what pneumonia my wife had/has, over a month in HDU and they could not work out what it was and still don't know. Her recovery is patchy at best as well.
My dad is convinced he got it in South Africa. Not likely, but still...
There was the strange case of the English cricket team's flu outbreak in South Africa last December.
Chinese media outlets seem very keen to promote this narrative...
Interesting, they have yet to find out what pneumonia my wife had/has, over a month in HDU and they could not work out what it was and still don't know. Her recovery is patchy at best as well.
My dad is convinced he got it in South Africa. Not likely, but still...
There was the strange case of the English cricket team's flu outbreak in South Africa last December.
David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.
I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.
Which area of Glasgow did you think the younger pub goers came from, many areas of Glagow will have longer life expectancy than your other examples. Typical short sighted thick southern ignoramus opinion methinks, or even worse an arsehole Scottish unionist.
I didn't think there have been cases of pubs staying open in Glasgow? Using the old 'they're all the same' measure, the poster may be thinking of Greenock.
Had occasion to drive along Shettleston Rd yesterday (ground zero of supposed low male life expectancy) and every single drinking hole was closed, and pretty much everything else.
Edit: I just checked & I believe the Bristol bar & Loudon Taverns were louping last night. Darwinism in action.
A view and not necessarily a correct one but one I am pondering
This is the first major pandemic probably since 1918 that has affected all countries. Is this a once in a lifetime event or as I suspect one that will recur more freqently in our interconnected world. The suspicion is that even 1918 wouldn't have occured worldwide probably without the 1st world war and the mass movement of people
David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.
I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.
Which area of Glasgow did you think the younger pub goers came from, many areas of Glagow will have longer life expectancy than your other examples. Typical short sighted thick southern ignoramus opinion methinks, or even worse an arsehole Scottish unionist.
I didn't think there have been cases of pubs staying open in Glasgow? Using the old 'they're all the same' measure, the poster may be thinking of Greenock.
Had occasion to drive along Shettleston Rd yesterday (ground zero of supposed low male life expectancy) and every single drinking hole was closed, and pretty much everything else.
Yes , most likely it was your usual thick unionist who believes everybody lives in Glasgow and has life expectancy of a hamster. Just the expert opinion on Scotland you expect on here.
David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.
I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.
Which area of Glasgow did you think the younger pub goers came from, many areas of Glagow will have longer life expectancy than your other examples. Typical short sighted thick southern ignoramus opinion methinks, or even worse an arsehole Scottish unionist.
I didn't think there have been cases of pubs staying open in Glasgow? Using the old 'they're all the same' measure, the poster may be thinking of Greenock.
Had occasion to drive along Shettleston Rd yesterday (ground zero of supposed low male life expectancy) and every single drinking hole was closed, and pretty much everything else.
Yes , most likely it was your usual thick unionist who believes everybody lives in Glasgow and has life expectancy of a hamster. Just the expert opinion on Scotland you expect on here.
On the subject of strange animal parts in the food chain wasnt a pizza place in scotland offering a spicy aardvark topping?
A view and not necessarily a correct one but one I am pondering
This is the first major pandemic probably since 1918 that has affected all countries. Is this a once in a lifetime event or as I suspect one that will recur more freqently in our interconnected world. The suspicion is that even 1918 wouldn't have occured worldwide probably without the 1st world war and the mass movement of people
It’s the most deadly (we expect) major pandemic. But lower level ones occur more often. And they might occur less frequently in future if people stop eating bats.
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%), Switzerland (9%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Grothendieck ....He gave lectures on category theory in the forests surrounding Hanoi while the city was being bombed, to protest against the Vietnam War.... ... His growing preoccupation with spiritual matters was also evident in a letter titled Lettre de la Bonne Nouvelle sent to 250 friends in January 1990. In it, he described his encounters with a deity and announced that a "New Age" would commence on 14 October 1996....
Without opining on the substance of the measures, I have no problem with Johnson's demeanour and tone in these briefings. It works OK for me.
People are desperate for us to be treated like children, or for an authoritarian regime. Today was Sunday, and Mother’s Day, obviously tomorrow and the rest of the week will see fewer people out and about in parks etc
With schools and businesses shut up and down the country I wouldn't rely upon Monday seeing parks be massively less popular.
My wife is home schooling my daughter tomorrow. She has spent the weekend timetabling, lesson planning and printing study material.
Everything has been planned out for school between 10am and 3pm in our house.
She’s probably the only one in the country to do this!
LOL! I'm curious how many here are going to be in that situation? Never thought it would happen but I'm at home tomorrow homeschooling my children as my wife's a "key worker" and I'm not.
We use this amazing teacher called Professor iPad.
For a lot of McDonald employees who are part time the 80% gross will work out with little or no tax.
A friend of mine who was really worried before Sunak's announcement not thinks if she is laid off due to not commuting and the uprise on working tax credit she will actually be 30£ a month better off
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
Encouraging but let's see the trend continue in the coming days before we break open the moderately priced sparkling wine.
A view and not necessarily a correct one but one I am pondering
This is the first major pandemic probably since 1918 that has affected all countries. Is this a once in a lifetime event or as I suspect one that will recur more freqently in our interconnected world. The suspicion is that even 1918 wouldn't have occured worldwide probably without the 1st world war and the mass movement of people
It has impacted every country on Earth, albeit unequally. Perhaps because of the time-scale, these deaths being spaced out over several decades, or because in the West it has primarily affected certain high-risk groups who have at times been at the fringes of society (e.g. men who have sex with men, intravenous drug users, sex workers) it might not pop automatically into everyone's head as a nasty pandemic that we've lived through, but it is nasty, we have lived through it, and the world is largely getting on top of it even if we are a long way from "beating" it...
Without opining on the substance of the measures, I have no problem with Johnson's demeanour and tone in these briefings. It works OK for me.
People are desperate for us to be treated like children, or for an authoritarian regime. Today was Sunday, and Mother’s Day, obviously tomorrow and the rest of the week will see fewer people out and about in parks etc
With schools and businesses shut up and down the country I wouldn't rely upon Monday seeing parks be massively less popular.
My wife is home schooling my daughter tomorrow. She has spent the weekend timetabling, lesson planning and printing study material.
Everything has been planned out for school between 10am and 3pm in our house.
She’s probably the only one in the country to do this!
LOL! I'm curious how many here are going to be in that situation? Never thought it would happen but I'm at home tomorrow homeschooling my children as my wife's a "key worker" and I'm not.
She isn't the only one, my sister has been doing the same with her two children, two foster children and Spanish English student all last week and for the foreseeable.
Shutting down all economic activity could possibly cost lives as well. That has to be taken into account.
It could which is why it was important business could go into hibernation and their staff be protected so once the spring of this comes we can like the snowdrop blossom
A view and not necessarily a correct one but one I am pondering
This is the first major pandemic probably since 1918 that has affected all countries. Is this a once in a lifetime event or as I suspect one that will recur more freqently in our interconnected world. The suspicion is that even 1918 wouldn't have occured worldwide probably without the 1st world war and the mass movement of people
It has impacted every country on Earth, albeit unequally. Perhaps because of the time-scale, these deaths being spaced out over several decades, or because in the West it has primarily affected certain high-risk groups who have at times been at the fringes of society (e.g. men who have sex with men, intravenous drug users, sex workers) it might not pop automatically into everyone's head as a nasty pandemic that we've lived through, but it is nasty, we have lived through it, and the world is largely getting on top of it even if we are a long way from "beating" it...
Aids was largely ignored, both because in western countries it mainly targetted high risk groups that were marginalised and also the fact it wasn't something you caught just walking down the street. Mostly you had to undertake risky behaviour to catch it
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%), Switzerland (9%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%), Switzerland (9%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
I hope so, but there is another factor that all these countries share, which could be the reason why the numbers are not so large today. It is Sunday.
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
Encouraging but let's see the trend continue in the coming days before we break open the moderately priced sparkling wine.
Or is it just a weekend oddity? Hope not the shutdown out here in Valencia started Saturday 14th so is on it’s eight day so let’s hope the progress continues, it still is a growing pressure on the health services though so that explains the extension to 11/4
Shutting down all economic activity could possibly cost lives as well. That has to be taken into account.
It could which is why it was important business could go into hibernation and their staff be protected so once the spring of this comes we can like the snowdrop blossom
That is very much based on the idea that this will all be over in three months and things will go back to normal. That seems very unlikely right now, aggregate demand is going to be severely depressed for the next year and the analysts are currently predicting the economic shock will be two to three times as severe as the 2008 GFC.
People are still treating this like it's a blizzard that will soon blow over, when it is actually a year long winter. Many will lose their jobs over the coming months as businesses downsize.
This is why we need an antibody test, I had a bad flu beginning of feb with all corona symptoms got better only to have it resurge 2 weeks late total 10 days on my back. Was it normal flu or corona ....no idea. Did for the first time in a while give me asthma symptoms of not being able to breathe though and still not back to full steam
If I had it back in late January/early February then my experience is similar to yours. It came and went and I am still not quite 100%. I have some faint shortness of breath I didn’t have before.
It’s nothing terrible but it is noticeable. It lingers.
It does but I have no idea whether it was it or not nor will I claim it before I get tested positive. I don't as a rule get knocked flat by a cold and rarely have had flu (this would be only the third time) but it was a doozy
Shutting down all economic activity could possibly cost lives as well. That has to be taken into account.
It could which is why it was important business could go into hibernation and their staff be protected so once the spring of this comes we can like the snowdrop blossom
That is very much based on the idea that this will all be over in three months and things will go back to normal. That seems very unlikely right now, aggregate demand is going to be severely depressed for the next year and the analysts are currently predicting the economic shock will be two to three times as severe as the 2008 GFC.
People are still treating this like it's a blizzard that will soon blow over, when it is actually a year long winter. Many will lose their jobs over the coming months as businesses downsize.
I have no doubt we are heading into a recession, I am less convinced that carrying on as normal wouldnt have produced a worse one
So, from Lombardy and Veneto, the heart of Italy's CV-19 crisis:
New cases in Lombardy increased by 1,691 today against 3,251 yesterday and 2,380 the day before.
New cases in Veneto increased by 505 today against 586 and 549.
So, encouraging from both regions. (Although the Lombardy drop looks suspciously large.)
Perhaps the most encouraging number in all the figures out of Italy was the percentage positive, which at 22% is the lowest for some time.
That is the best news in a while. Total lockdown works, perhaps, as well in the west as it does in the East.
But two points.
How long can you sustain the economic damage?
And
What happens when you unshackle the people, and the virus returns?
Until we have a vaccine or effective treatment this is going to menace us and kill us in numbers.
As I said previously, this idea of “total lockdown” in China is utter bollocks. For weeks the Chinese authorities denied there was a problem before imposing a total lockdown in Hubei and neighbouring provinces (but not everywhere) prior to which people were moving from Hubei to elsewhere in the country as normal. China is not a poster boy for management of this shite. They don’t get let off persecuting the doctor who blew the whistle on this. I am not sure what lessons to take from China but its lockdown was late and not implemented uniformly. We should look at all aspects of their response (including their figures) with caution.
This is why we need an antibody test, I had a bad flu beginning of feb with all corona symptoms got better only to have it resurge 2 weeks late total 10 days on my back. Was it normal flu or corona ....no idea. Did for the first time in a while give me asthma symptoms of not being able to breathe though and still not back to full steam
If I had it back in late January/early February then my experience is similar to yours. It came and went and I am still not quite 100%. I have some faint shortness of breath I didn’t have before.
It’s nothing terrible but it is noticeable. It lingers.
It does but I have no idea whether it was it or not nor will I claim it before I get tested positive. I don't as a rule get knocked flat by a cold and rarely have had flu (this would be only the third time) but it was a doozy
Mine wasn’t that bad at the time. I’m inclined to believe it was corona because of that weird symptom of excessive dry coughing fits which can keep you up all night. That’s quite distinct.
Until they develop an antibody test I cannot know.
Mine was really bad and despite the fact my asthma is purely allergy related I got through 2 inhalers in 2 weeks while trying to breath thinking it was normal flu that had triggered it
Otherwise you would be much better off with no NI as well as no Income Tax.
Govt has said employer can top up to 100% implying that you are worse off so must be taxable.
However as stated people will save travel and other associated costs plus maybe gain benefits so all in all very little if any loss for most people.
The payments are made to businesses, not employees, and aren’t (I believe) to be taxed as business income. It’s then up to businesses to pay their employees, and those payments would be subject to deductions. So employees won’t be better off as, unless the employer tops it up, their gross pay is cut by 20%.
Whether the employer has to pay employers’ NI (and pension contributions) on top of the salary is a detail they probably haven’t thought of yet.
This is why we need an antibody test, I had a bad flu beginning of feb with all corona symptoms got better only to have it resurge 2 weeks late total 10 days on my back. Was it normal flu or corona ....no idea. Did for the first time in a while give me asthma symptoms of not being able to breathe though and still not back to full steam
If I had it back in late January/early February then my experience is similar to yours. It came and went and I am still not quite 100%. I have some faint shortness of breath I didn’t have before.
It’s nothing terrible but it is noticeable. It lingers.
It does but I have no idea whether it was it or not nor will I claim it before I get tested positive. I don't as a rule get knocked flat by a cold and rarely have had flu (this would be only the third time) but it was a doozy
Mine wasn’t that bad at the time. I’m inclined to believe it was corona because of that weird symptom of excessive dry coughing fits which can keep you up all night. That’s quite distinct.
Until they develop an antibody test I cannot know.
Mine was really bad and despite the fact my asthma is purely allergy related I got through 2 inhalers in 2 weeks while trying to breath thinking it was normal flu that had triggered it
I kind of hope it was Covid not to be selfish but as I said before I am one of a three man team that each takes a week covering 24/7 support for software necessary to the running of several hospitals and at least would mean that one person was definitely available
This will surely turn tomorrow’s markets downwards:
Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at 5pm ET but it looks like the $1tn package to help the battered US economy is in trouble. The Republican-majority Senate is looking to vote despite disagreement from Democrats in Congress. Speaker Nancy Pelosi even said on Sunday that House Democrats may look to pursue their own legislation. “It’s on the Senate side now because that’s their deadline for a vote,” Pelosi said. “But we’ll be introducing our own bill and hopefully, it will be compatible with what they discussed in the Senate.”
The virus will - of course - return once lockdowns are lifted. That is certain.
But we'll start from a better place than last time. For a start, there will be a significant cadre of the medical profession who will have already CV-19 and therefore are highly unlikely to be susceptible to re-infection. And a substantial portion of the general public - perhaps more than 10% in places like London - will no longer be able to act as carriers.
Our testing regimes will also be much better, and starting from a low base allows us to do a better job of testing all possibles, and those likelies to have been in contact with those infected.
And we also know some drug combinations that help, and we'll have ready stocks of them avaiable. If you catch someone early, and you dose them with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, then they're unlikely to end up hospitalised, and they cease being a carrier earlier.
Together, these things should mean that, next time around, R0 is not 3+, but is 1-2. This means that the virus on a slower path from the start.
Now, we'll probably need to have future lockdowns. But a two week lockdown at the end of every quarter, and with each outbreak inbetween getting successively less severe, is not that bad. It's tens of thousands of excess deaths this year, but not hundreds of thousands. It's a nasty recession, but - combined with sensible government support - it should be survivable for most people and businesses.
To make a betting point (yes yes I know and it is the point of this site) I wonder if Trump truly is real value to lay now. He's still close to evens.
What I can't work out is whether he'd benefit from a rally round the flag effect and do whatever it takes (including quasi socialist measures) over the next 6 months to win.
I think he might because winning is all that matters to him.
Some suddenly really promising figures all across Europe today. Lowest ever growth rates in Italy (10%) and France (11%). Really big drops in Spain (12%), Germany (12%), UK (13%).
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
Encouraging but let's see the trend continue in the coming days before we break open the moderately priced sparkling wine.
Do we not need to first normalise for changes in testing patterns? I see it as likely that Sat/Sun sees lower levels than the rest of the week. % of tests returned as positive is perhaps a better metric.
In other news, "lockdown" is beginning to take effect. My high street in N London is not quite at ghost town levels, but it's got to be 80% quieter than usual for a Sunday evening
David Spiegelhalter (Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge) is always good at his job, here's his take on COVID-19. Apologies if you've seen it before. Worth looking at the website to see the graph. His point is that whatever your risk of dying is in a year (which varies based on age) is pretty close to your risk of dying if you catch COVID-19.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.
It’s important to note that all the risks quoted are the average (mean) risks for people of the relevant age, but are not the risks of the average person! This is because, both for COVID and in normal circumstances, much of the risk is held by people whom are already chronically ill. So for the large majority of healthy people, their risks of either dying from COVID, or dying of something else, are much lower than those quoted here. Although of course for every death there will be others who are seriously ill.
Also, as Triggle points out, there will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period — and so these risks cannot be simply added, and it does not simply double the risk of people who get infected. It is crucially important that the NHS is not overwhelmed, but if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality for 2020 (although background mortality could increase due to pressures on the health services and the side-effects of isolation). Although, as we are seeing, at vast cost.
This may rationally explain why some younger pub goers in Glasgow are doubtful about the policy. In an area and social group where male life expectancy is short, why abolish fun of every sort for party and pub goers so that middle class old people in Oxfordshire and Morningside can live a little longer in a care home at the cost not only of fun now ("youth's a thing will not endure"), but at the cost of millions of working class jobs and prospects, the world economy and future fun. None of the pointy heads are making that argument right now, and indeed I am not either, but it may have force in the long run.
I suspect Boris is instinctively always on the side of 'fun now, draw conclusions later' school. He may be finding all this a little hard going.
“The oldies destroyed my future by voting for Brexitand not satisfied they’re destroying my present by forcing us all indoor for weeks/months for their own protection”
That is just a horrible post - shame on you
Nonetheless, there is a section of society that feels that way. They see the Boomer's generation as having had it all and their generation having their future mortgaged by the elderly
Google "Boomer Remover"...
Boomers’ parents would appear to be those at risk.
given boomers are from 1946 onwards that would make them 74 to 64 they seem right in the target zone I dont imaging to many 74 year olds have living parents nor 64 year olds for that matter
Wrong definition. I think boomer ends in 1964 so easy to have parents i their eighties. I do.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
To make a betting point (yes yes I know and it is the point of this site) I wonder if Trump truly is real value to lay now. He's still close to evens.
What I can't work out is whether he'd benefit from a rally round the flag effect and do whatever it takes (including quasi socialist measures) over the next 6 months to win.
I think he might because winning is all that matters to him.
As our friend Mr Smithson (Jr) keeps pointing out, Trump was already running a more than quasi-socialist spending policy. Increasing taxes in the next six months would harm rather than help him, and any changes to healthcare provision wouldn't be noticed in time. I'm curious as to what else you might have had in mind?
In any event, I think so many people in the US are going to die in that period that it simply wouldn't make any difference what Trump tries. The only question for me is whether the deaths will be sufficiently spread out to finish him off - swing voters in Wisconsin probably aren't that interested in health crises in New York and California.
Our 281 is less than their 366 of two weeks ago. Or, on a different measure, we have gained half a day.
Somebody will be along to helpfully recalibrate the graphs shortly.
On a more serious note - has anyone attempted to produce predictions of future cases and timescales in line with the Government's "hopeful" 20,000 deaths target. How do we get from 280 deaths total and 50 new per day. To 20,000 deaths (by July? November? April next year? over 3 years).
We're extrapolating tiny numbers from tiny numbers to project forward at the moment, with no idea how it might align with Government expectations.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
I'm transitioning to Ecoauthoritarian. Wor Lass has been there for a while.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
That depends what it means. I’m still “going out as normal”, mostly walking the dog, but keeping my distance from people. I would have answered yes to the survey, yet reckon my risk is negligible. I’m just not going out as normal so much, since so much is closed.
There are also tons of key workers who would also answer yes.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
Maybe "as normal" is "rarely, if ever" anyway?
Over-50s are often very social. No longer exhausted from running around kids all the time.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Interesting; I'm going the other way. I started out as a right wing libertarian and now I'm questioning why I ever thought the idea of a free press was a good idea.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
I wonder if it's possible that the relatively smaller number of men willing to change their habits over this is a factor in more men dying of it.
Could it be that male propensity towards lax hygiene habits and sheer stubbornness will finally kill us off?
It seems regardless of the government approach, the public have decided that they are going to test the herd immunity strategy to destruction....absolute f##king dickheads.
To make a betting point (yes yes I know and it is the point of this site) I wonder if Trump truly is real value to lay now. He's still close to evens.
What I can't work out is whether he'd benefit from a rally round the flag effect and do whatever it takes (including quasi socialist measures) over the next 6 months to win.
I think he might because winning is all that matters to him.
Have you seen that Florida got prioritised for federal Coronavirus aid over other non-swing states that requested aid earlier?
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
They are the ones that say that if they don’t make it illegal to go out there cant be that much of a problem so I’ll carry on as normal til they do.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
If that's from Tuesday then it's from when people were still going into work and only a day or so after he'd *advised* people not to got to pubs and restaurants.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Interesting; I'm going the other way. I started out as a right wing libertarian and now I'm questioning why I ever thought the idea of a free press was a good idea.
Not that I doubt necessarily that the survey is true merely in my experience there are a sizeable number of women who will give the answer they think is right not what they actually do having seen how some I have lived with have filled out previous surveys maybe the same is true the other way but never lived with men so no experience
I know the USA has stopped flights arriving from the UK, but have we stopped flights arriving from the US yet ?
It hasn't stopped flights - as we chat there are a BA 747 and 777 in the air on the way to JFK - what it has stopped is non-US Citizens from flying from the UK to the USA.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Interesting; I'm going the other way. I started out as a right wing libertarian and now I'm questioning why I ever thought the idea of a free press was a good idea.
I'm getting more libertarian as the restrictions increase. I hate my options and movements being restricted - it brings back unhappy memories of boarding school.
I think a free *press* is fine. It's unconstrained free posting in the twattosphere that's the issue - full of fake news, hyperbole, confirmation bias and bullshit.
Best analogy I can think of is to why representative democracy is good but absolute democracy poor.
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Jesus Christ, its not just the youngsters, look at the % of over 50s....They are going to crash the NHS in no time.
They are the ones that say that if they don’t make it illegal to go out there cant be that much of a problem so I’ll carry on as normal til they do.
I find it mind blowing. It was one thing when it was other in China, but we have had weeks of this now and especially day in day out footage of the horrors of Italy. There can't be anybody in the country who hasn't heard about this.
Even if the government messaging hasn't been firm enough, how the f##k do people think we are any different from Italy, Spain, France, America.
To make a betting point (yes yes I know and it is the point of this site) I wonder if Trump truly is real value to lay now. He's still close to evens.
What I can't work out is whether he'd benefit from a rally round the flag effect and do whatever it takes (including quasi socialist measures) over the next 6 months to win.
I think he might because winning is all that matters to him.
Have you seen that Florida got prioritised for federal Coronavirus aid over other non-swing states that requested aid earlier?
Half of men and a third of women are selfish d*ckheads that aren't willing to make the slightest change to their routines even when other people will die. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964 I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
I'm transitioning to Ecoauthoritarian. Wor Lass has been there for a while.
Possibly the prospect of governments’ restricting people’s activities and lifestyle choices won’t be so scary after all this. Or possibly we won’t want to go there ever again.
I noticed CH4 news couldn't help the sly dig at Boris slip of the tongue over Mothers Day. Its just absolutely pathetic and undermining the message about the seriousness of all of this.
Comments
Given they have Drive Thru's I'm surprised they're all closing.
Had occasion to drive along Shettleston Rd yesterday (ground zero of supposed low male life expectancy) and every single drinking hole was closed, and pretty much everything else.
Edit: I just checked & I believe the Bristol bar & Loudon Taverns were louping last night. Darwinism in action.
https://twitter.com/MartyyLee/status/1241450012002959362?s=20
I used to love playing that game
This is the first major pandemic probably since 1918 that has affected all countries. Is this a once in a lifetime event or as I suspect one that will recur more freqently in our interconnected world. The suspicion is that even 1918 wouldn't have occured worldwide probably without the 1st world war and the mass movement of people
Interesting these should all happen on the same day, across countries using different approaches - perhaps suggesting how much of a factor cross-continental travel is in the spread.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1241702863530799104?s=21
Now 8,000 new cases today, not 14,000.
So maybe some confusion, double counting.
But number of US deaths just amended upwards - now 112 today (SO FAR) - previous highest day was 57 so a very bad deaths number.
Is the bar at the club allowed to be open ?
It has impacted every country on Earth, albeit unequally. Perhaps because of the time-scale, these deaths being spaced out over several decades, or because in the West it has primarily affected certain high-risk groups who have at times been at the fringes of society (e.g. men who have sex with men, intravenous drug users, sex workers) it might not pop automatically into everyone's head as a nasty pandemic that we've lived through, but it is nasty, we have lived through it, and the world is largely getting on top of it even if we are a long way from "beating" it...
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1241768491683909635
People are still treating this like it's a blizzard that will soon blow over, when it is actually a year long winter. Many will lose their jobs over the coming months as businesses downsize.
Otherwise you would be much better off with no NI as well as no Income Tax.
Govt has said employer can top up to 100% implying that you are worse off so must be taxable.
However as stated people will save travel and other associated costs plus maybe gain benefits so all in all very little if any loss for most people.
Whether the employer has to pay employers’ NI (and pension contributions) on top of the salary is a detail they probably haven’t thought of yet.
Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at 5pm ET but it looks like the $1tn package to help the battered US economy is in trouble. The Republican-majority Senate is looking to vote despite disagreement from Democrats in Congress. Speaker Nancy Pelosi even said on Sunday that House Democrats may look to pursue their own legislation. “It’s on the Senate side now because that’s their deadline for a vote,” Pelosi said. “But we’ll be introducing our own bill and hopefully, it will be compatible with what they discussed in the Senate.”
The virus will - of course - return once lockdowns are lifted. That is certain.
But we'll start from a better place than last time. For a start, there will be a significant cadre of the medical profession who will have already CV-19 and therefore are highly unlikely to be susceptible to re-infection. And a substantial portion of the general public - perhaps more than 10% in places like London - will no longer be able to act as carriers.
Our testing regimes will also be much better, and starting from a low base allows us to do a better job of testing all possibles, and those likelies to have been in contact with those infected.
And we also know some drug combinations that help, and we'll have ready stocks of them avaiable. If you catch someone early, and you dose them with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, then they're unlikely to end up hospitalised, and they cease being a carrier earlier.
Together, these things should mean that, next time around, R0 is not 3+, but is 1-2. This means that the virus on a slower path from the start.
Now, we'll probably need to have future lockdowns. But a two week lockdown at the end of every quarter, and with each outbreak inbetween getting successively less severe, is not that bad. It's tens of thousands of excess deaths this year, but not hundreds of thousands. It's a nasty recession, but - combined with sensible government support - it should be survivable for most people and businesses.
To make a betting point (yes yes I know and it is the point of this site) I wonder if Trump truly is real value to lay now. He's still close to evens.
What I can't work out is whether he'd benefit from a rally round the flag effect and do whatever it takes (including quasi socialist measures) over the next 6 months to win.
I think he might because winning is all that matters to him.
In other news, "lockdown" is beginning to take effect. My high street in N London is not quite at ghost town levels, but it's got to be 80% quieter than usual for a Sunday evening
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1241788968930344964
I could turn into a right wing libertarian over this crisis.
Uk population is younger though so.....
In any event, I think so many people in the US are going to die in that period that it simply wouldn't make any difference what Trump tries. The only question for me is whether the deaths will be sufficiently spread out to finish him off - swing voters in Wisconsin probably aren't that interested in health crises in New York and California.
On a more serious note - has anyone attempted to produce predictions of future cases and timescales in line with the Government's "hopeful" 20,000 deaths target. How do we get from 280 deaths total and 50 new per day. To 20,000 deaths (by July? November? April next year? over 3 years).
We're extrapolating tiny numbers from tiny numbers to project forward at the moment, with no idea how it might align with Government expectations.
By the way, is the number of lives limited like a Time Lord?
I hope to post a photo tomorrow.
In these darkest times, nature will help us cope.
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1241792642033295360?s=19
There are also tons of key workers who would also answer yes.
Could it be that male propensity towards lax hygiene habits and sheer stubbornness will finally kill us off?
'To plant a garden is to believe in tomorrow.'
I think a free *press* is fine. It's unconstrained free posting in the twattosphere that's the issue - full of fake news, hyperbole, confirmation bias and bullshit.
Best analogy I can think of is to why representative democracy is good but absolute democracy poor.
Even if the government messaging hasn't been firm enough, how the f##k do people think we are any different from Italy, Spain, France, America.