politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Republicans move drop below a 50% betting chance for W
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I’ve relaid Sanders today.kinabalu said:
Pence 15 to be the nominee.Andy_JS said:Trump's re-election odds are continuing to drift out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
He drifted back in to 30.
Inexplicably.0 -
That one was hilarious, Tay the Twitterbot.glw said:
There was that Microsoft bot that was "hacked" to spout racist nonsense, amazingly this one is worse.FrancisUrquhart said:
Are we sure some sub-optimal chat bot AI doesn't auto create his tweets for him?rottenborough said:
https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist
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Good evening, PB.
I'm a very long-time lurker -- an every-day reader since at least 2008 -- and I wanted to thank you all for the companionship you provided over many years, even if that was a one-way relationship. When I was alone in hospital in a far-flung country, several years ago, reading PB kept me sane. As life threw me some challenges, it kept me hopeful. It's always been a reliable source of (relatively) informed and (relatively) civil discourse.
The current situation finally prompted me to join. At times like these we all reach out to each other. I look forward to discussing with you, some of whom I feel I already know.
-- AS12 -
If you have chosen the herd immunity route, what is the purpose of widespread testing? Symptoms will be treated, and testing will only be done to the extent that it aids with treatment. R-T PCR testing will no longer be done for epidemiological purposes.eristdoof said:
Have they? Why?FrancisUrquhart said:
That is why the Korean drive-through tests were a good idea. We started to trial them here, but clearly they have now been ditched.Sandpit said:
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.Black_Rook said:
Finite testing capacity one would presume.FrancisUrquhart said:
At some point, when we have it, serological testing with large samples of the general populace will be used to ascertain the level of herd immunity.
Anyways, that's my best guess.2 -
You should know that behavioural science predicting that when you declare a quarantine zone, large numbers leave the quarantine zone... well, that's bollocks according to a random person on twitter.GideonWise said:
I think the positive ratings have much to do with the CMO and CSA who are extremely impressive individuals.felix said:The polling which shows broad support for the government should be required study for all the press and media hacks who are desperate to add division and discord at the time when we really need unity above all else. I live in Spain which is in full panic mode tonight just a few days after closing universities and schools has led to thousands of families leaving the worst affected areas to go totheir second homes in the least affected areas.
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Because they owe enough on existing policies.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Chlorinated water doesn't sound like the best places for a virus. My understanding is that steam rooms and saunas take precautions against bugs in the vapour.Philip_Thompson said:
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?AlastairMeeks said:
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.tyson said:
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?AlastairMeeks said:
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.tyson said:
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....FrancisUrquhart said:
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.OldKingCole said:Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried.
And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component.
So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
But would be interesting to see an actually study.
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However I'd guess Dom is in a state of moistness over the term 'herd immunity'.Andy_JS said:
It isn't Johnson's idea, it's the experts.tyson said:
What a fucking disaster.....AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....0 -
Probably. But that is pretty much what the science leads said yesterday. Now is not the time to go to full-on social distancing and isolation because people wont stand it for months on end.tyson said:
I doubt very much everyone had the same view- and I would think if the PM was someone who believed in the state a little more- then the outcome would have been different....Andy_JS said:
It isn't Johnson's idea, it's the experts.tyson said:
What a fucking disaster.....AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Within 2 weeks we'll be in lock down and trying to keep people away from each other as much as possible-0 -
Seven of the World Tour teams withdrew before the start and a couple of others have done the same during the race. Sunweb have been doing well with two wins from Kragh Anderson and Benoot. With many of the classics cancelled it's not looking good for the Giro.noneoftheabove said:
Even events like that lose their shine. I could be vaguely interested just to get a line on form into the Giro or Tour but couldnt really care who wins Paris-Nice itself.slade said:
Paris-Nice cycling although they have cancelled Sunday's stage into Nice.noneoftheabove said:
Snooker still planning to be on. Is it a sport?Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
Some Rugby League
Olympic Boxing qualifiers....0 -
What happens with by-elections?david_herdson said:
Nevertheless, with the EC requesting it it would have been bold to keep them going, even with massive poll leads to look forward to.0 -
It depends what the primary route of infection really is.Philip_Thompson said:
Yeah I never thought it was a cure, I was just curious about transmission risks.TimT said:
Chlorine in the pool will almost certainly kill it; sauna and steam rooms, the heat should do kill any virus contamination on surfaces.Philip_Thompson said:
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?AlastairMeeks said:
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.tyson said:
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?AlastairMeeks said:
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.tyson said:
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....FrancisUrquhart said:
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.OldKingCole said:Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried.
And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component.
So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
However, the myth that a sauna will cure you of the virus if you've already caught it is nonsense.
I've been thinking about joining a gym recently but put it off for now as I'm not sure about the risks etc - if I was to join it'd be primarily to use cardio equipment and then wanting to use a pool/jacuzzi/sauna/steam room after exercising but I'm not sure if that's safe or not right now.
If it is droplet transmission, with close contact airborne and fomites as secondary routes, then gyms might be reasonably safe so long as you wipe down any equipment or surfaces you touch with your bare skin before you do so.
If is, as Osterholm and others are now arguing, genuinely an airborne disease like flu or the common cold, with droplets and fomites being of secondary importance, then any confined space with lots of people and recycled air will be bad.0 -
Hahaha, no.Andy_JS said:1 -
NEW THREAD
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Welcome @AlwaysSinging - don't be shy to contribute!0
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There was a response from a Seattle MD to the thread saying they believed it was fake.Nigelb said:Fascinating (and disturbing) thread on a Seattle hospital experience:
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238322250392039424
Interesting comment about Remdesivir (but it is hard to get hold of):
https://twitter.com/Chenbariatrics1/status/1238328364911345665
Dr Chen responded to say he wasn’t personally treating or admitting COVID patients0 -
Ok, thanks. We also have to be careful when using the very latest data, as they could well be for just part of the day. This depends on whether the data are published daily or several times a day. Eg. Worldometers has currently +2547 new cases in Italy since midnight GMT.FrancisUrquhart said:
I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.eristdoof said:
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?FrancisUrquhart said:
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed0 -
Yes. To Peter Piot and other experts he knows and trustsSandyRentool said:'"Do not just let this fire burn" - that's what World Health Organization director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned governments at the WHO daily press conference.
He urged countries to “find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of transmission”. Every case found reduced the risk of spread, he said.'
Were you listening Bozo???1 -
There is, in fact, a real danger to people standing on their soapboxes. It’s clear that we are fast approaching a situation that will become akin to a war, where the public is asked to accept unprecedented sacrifices, and where the effect on the “home front” will be the most profound since the end of the Second World War.
If people with limited knowledge whip up rhetoric against the official advice, then this undermines confidence in the very people who are keeping us as safe as possible.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/13/questioning-governments-coronavirus-strategy-not-wrong-danger/0 -
There is an advantage to occasionally reading the Star, Sun, Mirror, Express, even (gasp) the Daily Mail. Or at least there was when newspaper readership was higher, I don't do it so much anymore. My usual source was abandoned copies on buses, trains or the tube, but that's probably not very covidsafe! Most of us have a critical awareness about our own media and information diet, and how that shapes our worldview. But we are massively outnumbered by people on very different information diets to us. Dipping in to what they see can help us see the world through their eyes.kinabalu said:Stocky said:I find it oddly comforting that you read the Daily Star.
Do they still do a tit count?
- I didn't read it! God.
With the decline of the press, splintering of TV channels and fall in linear TV, and explosion of online media and the fact I eschew Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Amazon Prime (and am not active on Twitter, though will read links from here), and I don't follow any famous Youtubers or podcasters, I've found myself increasingly out of touch with what media sources many people are consuming these days. At least re news, I know BBC Online has a strong presence still even with younger consumers, and I sometimes look at the Guardian and the Mail Online which are both relatively popular. I notice I'm increasingly of touch with the under-thirties and it's not just on music!!
Anyone got any suggestions for how to build some bridges with the young'uns?1 -
Targeting of limited resources to where they are most impactfulFrancisUrquhart said:0 -
IanB2 said:
Because they owe enough on existing policies.CarlottaVance said:
Bookies are stopping taking bets after the race has finished as well. Shock.IanB2 said:
Because they owe enough on existing policies.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I'd get it, it is possible after all, except the 'we cannot trust what the UK says is right' is usually coupled with a 'we must unquestioningly accept anything someone else says is right' attitude.TimT said:I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
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Apropos of nothing, a young Corbynite student type I work with just messaged me and said:
“Herd immunity? OK, let’s leave 1.3m to die.”
I’m not sure how she derived that number, but I share because perhaps the governments message will *not* be accepted unthinkingly by the whole population.0 -
The whole thing seems to be a joke, also reported they are all in a whatsapp group and high up in SNP. It is a comedy of errors.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have a *friend* who is an absolute cad, he said to a female friend 'I want to do zombie porn with you, I want to eat your brains and your [moderated]'.MarqueeMark said:"An SNP party worker has claimed Alex Salmond did an impression of a zombie before kissing her on both cheeks then trying to kiss her on the mouth.
The witness, known as Woman J, said the alleged incident - shortly before the independence referendum - had been "like an awful nightmare"."
Must have been a very authentic zombie walk then.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-518704450 -
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Tory EuthanasiaBeibheirli_C said:
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?Andy_JS said:Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?0 -
Dems down to 1.93.Andy_JS said:Trump's re-election odds are continuing to drift out.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
I don't see how the GOP can survive and win the Presidency if Trump fucks this.
It is Trump or Bust.0 -
The only thing likely to make me immediately ditch my reluctant open-mindedness to the government on this one issue is the endorsement of Newton Dunn and the Currant Bun.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1238478281546006528?s=21tyson said:
What a fucking disaster.....AndreaParma_82 said:Italy daily update
2116 new infections
250 new deaths
181 new healed
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Mercifully the Mail is still up in arms, so maybe the Uk is not heading to hell in a handcart.
If you can get Melanie Phillips to complain about government policy, then I'll be handing out leaflets in support of Matt Hancock.0 -
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