Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month. That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
The assumption they are working from, as stated yesterday, is that there are ten times as many mild/undetected cases - so containment is that much harder, and building herd immunity is that much less dangerous.
How do they come up with that assumption ? Did they explain ? (I was doing other stuff, and simply didn't see the press conference.)
They didn't explain.
Logically, if your contact tracing and testing is good enough then any cases you find that aren't connected to travel, or a previously identified case, will be due to undetected asymptomatic cases passing the infection on. Consequently you can use the numbers of one to estimate the numbers of the other.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
The government said they could build capacity for 10,000 a day quite quickly. Now that might have been BS, but the new numbers are 3000 in day and they haven't rolled out all the local testing.
Again SK, did this two strand approach. Quick and less accurate test at the road side, and if you tested positive, then you get funnelled into the proper testing pool.
I am very concerned that all this modelling and data driven approaches and then we appear to be wanting to reduce data collection rather than increase it.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Keep up a regime of seafront walks, and nod towards fellow walkers, but leave it at that.
U3a meetings can keep for a few weeks. After all, you want to make it through to the U4a, when Sauron is smashed and the great flourishing occurs.
Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month. That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
If it happens as they are predicting (95% of cases in 9 weeks, 50% of cases in 3 weeks) then there will be a few weeks where we really cant cope whatever strategy we use.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
As an 80 year old I would recommend you avoid as much risk as you can - forget the meetings
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ? Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.
What evidence for 'much less likely after seven days' do they have ? I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't accord with the limited evidence I've seen.
Unless, of course, he means those people with a mild case of the virus (the seriously ill obviously not being in a state to go out again). I've not seen any evidence published on that, and it is an interesting point.
He offered no evidence and I dont think was questioned on it. I'm not saying hes right or wrong. I have no clue beyond what I hear and read. I got a cough/cold 10 days ago so under new rules would have had to isolate. No fever tho and a runny nose so I'm sure I'm still waiting to catch it.
There is a research paper out from a German group looking at day by day symptoms, viral loads, and viral shedding.
Shedding is highest for those with mild symptoms early on, and ceases completely after 10 days. That might be the origin of the 7 day figure.
FWIW, one of the reasons COVID is so much more transmissible than SARS is that viral loads in those early days of infection are around 1000-fold those of SARS.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Perhaps he could just ask the virus nicely if it fancies taking a few weeks off and killing itself.
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
The UK invented epidemiology, it invented epidemiological mapping, it is still at the forefront of both globally, and our pioneers are revered in the US and globally.
That the UK is doing things differently from the rest of the world - particularly on something where we are at the forefront of scientific knowledge - does not mean it is wrong. It may turn out to be, but why would we go with the crowd if we are confident that our knowledge is better? Lemmings much?
I'm not arguing that. I said yesterday that the choice they are making could prove right. But is is a choice which I have serious doubts about (as do people far more qualified than me to express an opinion). I am truing to understand that choice, and most of the responses I get, not unlike yours, are along the lines of 'we have great epidemiologists'.
And the stakes for those of us in full time employment in our late fifties, with parents in their eighties, are not small ones.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
I think you are supposed to be indoors until mid-June, while the rest of us enjoy the illness for you?
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
I think he makes a fair point. I suppose it depends on whether they are abandoning all testing outside of hospitals or simply downplaying it and targeting it to get the information they need.
The tests themselves - or at least the announcement of them - has become something of a spectator sport so I can understand why they might want to be able to make changes to them without being constantly questioned over their meaning.
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ? Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.
What evidence for 'much less likely after seven days' do they have ? I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't accord with the limited evidence I've seen.
Unless, of course, he means those people with a mild case of the virus (the seriously ill obviously not being in a state to go out again). I've not seen any evidence published on that, and it is an interesting point.
He offered no evidence and I dont think was questioned on it. I'm not saying hes right or wrong. I have no clue beyond what I hear and read. I got a cough/cold 10 days ago so under new rules would have had to isolate. No fever tho and a runny nose so I'm sure I'm still waiting to catch it.
There is a research paper out from a German group looking at day by day symptoms, viral loads, and viral shedding.
Shedding is highest for those with mild symptoms early on, and ceases completely after 10 days. That might be the origin of the 7 day figure.
FWIW, one of the reasons COVID is so much more transmissible than SARS is that viral loads in those early days of infection are around 1000-fold those of SARS.
Thanks - that was the sort of thing I was asking for.
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?
Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month. That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
The assumption they are working from, as stated yesterday, is that there are ten times as many mild/undetected cases - so containment is that much harder, and building herd immunity is that much less dangerous.
How do they come up with that assumption ? Did they explain ? (I was doing other stuff, and simply didn't see the press conference.)
They didn't explain.
Logically, if your contact tracing and testing is good enough then any cases you find that aren't connected to travel, or a previously identified case, will be due to undetected asymptomatic cases passing the infection on. Consequently you can use the numbers of one to estimate the numbers of the other.
That's basically what the Ohio State Health Director said, that multiple unconnected community transmissions means ~1.0% of the public are infected.
Is this the same Donald Trump who just a fortnight ago declared coronavirus to be a "democratic hoax"?
Or a way to engineer postponing the election?
We've been through this I don't know how many times but US federal elections cannot be postponed. Term limits are set by the constitution and cannot be amended other than by amending the constitution.
If Trump cancelled the election (which he can't anyway as it's not a federal responsibility), then his term would expire as normal in Jan 2021 and he would be replaced either by whoever the House elected, if some states had managed to hold the election, or by the Speaker, in the absence of any Electoral College votes.
So Pelosi could appoint someone in that scenario? Herself?
Actually, I've screwed up there. If there'd been no November election then there'd be no House of Representatives. So not Pelosi.
In normal circumstances, the Speaker of the House is 2nd in line of succession, after the VP (who in this scenario wouldn't exist for the same reason there wouldn't be a president to inaugurate). There would, however, be a rump Senate as that's elected in thirds, so the presidency would devolve onto the third-in-line, the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.
As the GOP is defending a huge number of seats this year, then if no election were held, the Dems would gain control by default, with a 33-30 majority (plus 2 caucusing independents making it 35-30 in reality). That would put Patrick Leahy into the White House.
The government better hope it is only 7 days that you are infectious, because otherwise people are going to burst out of their isolation and go visit all the people they haven't seen for a week.
The thinking is presumably that if you do have coronavirus, you're going to be really quite ill after seven days ? Certainly those who are ill shed virus for much longer than that (median around 20 days). I'm not sure how long the asymptomatic infected continue to do so.
I think the CMO said in the press conference yesterday that people with virus much less likely to pass it on after 7 days. So didn't say it coukdnt happen.
I'm not due to meet anyone vulnerable soon, and work is dead, I think I'm a well 55yo so I think I just want to catch the bloody thing now and then self isolate. Then be one of the herd.
What evidence for 'much less likely after seven days' do they have ? I'm genuinely curious, as it doesn't accord with the limited evidence I've seen.
Unless, of course, he means those people with a mild case of the virus (the seriously ill obviously not being in a state to go out again). I've not seen any evidence published on that, and it is an interesting point.
He offered no evidence and I dont think was questioned on it. I'm not saying hes right or wrong. I have no clue beyond what I hear and read. I got a cough/cold 10 days ago so under new rules would have had to isolate. No fever tho and a runny nose so I'm sure I'm still waiting to catch it.
There is a research paper out from a German group looking at day by day symptoms, viral loads, and viral shedding.
Shedding is highest for those with mild symptoms early on, and ceases completely after 10 days. That might be the origin of the 7 day figure.
FWIW, one of the reasons COVID is so much more transmissible than SARS is that viral loads in those early days of infection are around 1000-fold those of SARS.
Thanks - that was the sort of thing I was asking for.
To be clear, that is 10 days from symptoms onset, not from exposure (i.e. it does not include the 4-5 day incubation period).
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?
I actually misread Wikipedia. I thought it had 12162 / 15113 (for 11/12),but actually says was 12462 / 15113. So it is a reduction, but not ~3000 to ~2000.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Its not his philosophy though is it Tyson
He is doing what we should want him to do - follow the advice of his experts.
You should take a look at what the WHO said this afternoon before you launch off on one.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
I know of a gym in Essex that had a confirmed case - no deep clean, no closure and do not tell anyone who uses it.
I believe that is a significant reduction in new cases if that is any glimmer of hope.
That is not what I see in the figures available to me, but different websites use different time points for counting. Can you please justify this claim that the new cases in the last 24 hours is a significant reduction?
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
At the moment, I can't work out if paying for PT while not doing the sessions, is better than paying to do them....
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
The UK invented epidemiology, it invented epidemiological mapping, it is still at the forefront of both globally, and our pioneers are revered in the US and globally.
That the UK is doing things differently from the rest of the world - particularly on something where we are at the forefront of scientific knowledge - does not mean it is wrong. It may turn out to be, but why would we go with the crowd if we are confident that our knowledge is better? Lemmings much?
I'm not arguing that. I said yesterday that the choice they are making could prove right. But is is a choice which I have serious doubts about (as do people far more qualified than me to express an opinion). I am truing to understand that choice, and most of the responses I get, not unlike yours, are along the lines of 'we have great epidemiologists'.
And the stakes for those of us in full time employment in our late fifties, with parents in their eighties, are not small ones.
For the record Nigel although I disagree with you on some of the points over the last few days, I don't for a minute think you have been Boris bashing for the sake of it. Your questions have been both valid and insightful and of course we should be challenging everything on here to try and get a clearer picture.
Personally I think that this is the right course they are taking (with some doubts about the testing regime) and am seriously considering whether it would be good to catch this thing as soon as possible (I am reasonably healthy and in my mid 50s so the chances of complications are low). My concern, like yours, is for elderly friends and relations so I am taking extra steps not mandated by the Government to keep them as safe and isolated as possible.
The polling which shows broad support for the government should be required study for all the press and media hacks who are desperate to add division and discord at the time when we really need unity above all else. I live in Spain which is in full panic mode tonight just a few days after closing universities and schools has led to thousands of families leaving the worst affected areas to go totheir second homes in the least affected areas.
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
The UK invented epidemiology, it invented epidemiological mapping, it is still at the forefront of both globally, and our pioneers are revered in the US and globally.
That the UK is doing things differently from the rest of the world - particularly on something where we are at the forefront of scientific knowledge - does not mean it is wrong. It may turn out to be, but why would we go with the crowd if we are confident that our knowledge is better? Lemmings much?
I'm not arguing that. I said yesterday that the choice they are making could prove right. But is is a choice which I have serious doubts about (as do people far more qualified than me to express an opinion). I am truing to understand that choice, and most of the responses I get, not unlike yours, are along the lines of 'we have great epidemiologists'.
And the stakes for those of us in full time employment in our late fifties, with parents in their eighties, are not small ones.
For the record Nigel although I disagree with you on some of the points over the last few days, I don't for a minute think you have been Boris bashing for the sake of it. Your questions have been both valid and insightful and of course we should be challenging everything on here to try and get a clearer picture.
Personally I think that this is the right course they are taking (with some doubts about the testing regime) and am seriously considering whether it would be good to catch this thing as soon as possible (I am reasonably healthy and in my mid 50s so the chances of complications are low). My concern, like yours, is for elderly friends and relations so I am taking extra steps not mandated by the Government to keep them as safe and isolated as possible.
I am sorry but having just reread what I wrote in that last sentence the first image that came to mind was of me with a broom beating my mother back down into the cellar. Black humour will always win through.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
There is already rising criticism, not just from Nige and Co, but more qualified people. When the number of dead starts to rise, the government are going to get bashed from pillar to post. I wouldn't swap their job for all the tea in china.
The strategy won't become apparent if it was the optimal one for many years. I can't imagine the pressure to go with it rather than follow the herd.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
Like that's going to last!
There is nowhere near enough protective equipment. It will be like going over the top with a swagger stick and whistle.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
There is already rising criticism, not just from Nige and Co...
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Yep it's shit.
We are absurdly, painfully, pathetically, arrogant.
And those who say we should trust our so-called scientists (neatly ignoring the rest of the world) just look at Foot & Mouth, BSE and the endless trope that the latter couldn't cause human CJD, er, until they found that they were completely wrong. If you want a stark reminder of why NOT to trust scientists and politicians on public health, read this:
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
30000 died from flu in the UK in 1989. It does not make onto a detailed list of news in the Uk in 1989 on wiki:
There was probably some public health stuff announced at the time but I cannot remember it being discussed.
If we keep the numbers to those levels the country can cope. Regardless of how we do I will be thanking the scientists, doctors, nurses and health providers for their sincere efforts, not second guessing them with Faragist common sense.
The polling which shows broad support for the government should be required study for all the press and media hacks who are desperate to add division and discord at the time when we really need unity above all else. I live in Spain which is in full panic mode tonight just a few days after closing universities and schools has led to thousands of families leaving the worst affected areas to go totheir second homes in the least affected areas.
I think the positive ratings have much to do with the CMO and CSA who are extremely impressive individuals.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
There is already rising criticism, not just from Nige and Co, but more qualified people. When the number of dead starts to rise, the government are going to get bashed from pillar to post. I wouldn't swap their job for all the tea in china.
The strategy won't become apparent if it was the optimal one for many years. I can't imagine the pressure to go with it rather than follow the herd.
When Italy is reporting very few new cases, while we are rapidly rising past, will they keep their nerve?
Iran: "During the next 10 days, the entire Iranian nation will be monitored once through cyberspace, by phone and, if necessary, in person, and those suspected of being ill will be fully identified,"
UK: If you think you've got it, we don't want to know.
Which is why so many Brits are hammering at the gates of the Turkey/Greece border clamouring to get to Isfahan and a bit of freedom, decency and health care.
I am bemused somewhat by the 'whatever the UK does, it must be crap' crowd.
The UK invented epidemiology, it invented epidemiological mapping, it is still at the forefront of both globally, and our pioneers are revered in the US and globally.
That the UK is doing things differently from the rest of the world - particularly on something where we are at the forefront of scientific knowledge - does not mean it is wrong. It may turn out to be, but why would we go with the crowd if we are confident that our knowledge is better? Lemmings much?
I'm not arguing that. I said yesterday that the choice they are making could prove right. But is is a choice which I have serious doubts about (as do people far more qualified than me to express an opinion). I am truing to understand that choice, and most of the responses I get, not unlike yours, are along the lines of 'we have great epidemiologists'.
And the stakes for those of us in full time employment in our late fifties, with parents in their eighties, are not small ones.
For the record Nigel although I disagree with you on some of the points over the last few days, I don't for a minute think you have been Boris bashing for the sake of it. Your questions have been both valid and insightful and of course we should be challenging everything on here to try and get a clearer picture.
Personally I think that this is the right course they are taking (with some doubts about the testing regime) and am seriously considering whether it would be good to catch this thing as soon as possible (I am reasonably healthy and in my mid 50s so the chances of complications are low). My concern, like yours, is for elderly friends and relations so I am taking extra steps not mandated by the Government to keep them as safe and isolated as possible.
Thanks, Richard. As you know, I have very little time for Johnson. On this I am endeavouring to give him the benefit of the doubt, but that doesn't mean taking anything he says for granted.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
Like that's going to last!
There is nowhere near enough protective equipment. It will be like going over the top with a swagger stick and whistle.
Best wishes to you Foxy.
My brother told me the 'package' of protective equipment sent to his GP practice was laughable.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
There is already rising criticism, not just from Nige and Co, but more qualified people. When the number of dead starts to rise, the government are going to get bashed from pillar to post. I wouldn't swap their job for all the tea in china.
The strategy won't become apparent if it was the optimal one for many years. I can't imagine the pressure to go with it rather than follow the herd.
When Italy is reporting very few new cases, while we are rapidly rising past, will they keep their nerve?
I am not sure how you can. You won't have the testing capacity for starters. Just sticking everybody in their homes when it is already widespread isn't going to solve much.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
I think you are supposed to be indoors until mid-June, while the rest of us enjoy the illness for you?
Indeed. I don't think there is any medical cure for being 80+, still well enough to go to the gym in a country with a remarkable NHS in the middle of a universal crisis which can kill any particular individual on the planet. Such cures as there are will be philosophical, attitudinal and of the spirit. Being alive right now is the greatest miracle. 'Thy life's a miracle'. Shakespeare. King Lear.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
This is worrying and the challenge is to worry enough but not too much. To stay informed without obsessing. To avoid risk but not feel frightened the whole time and trapped and claustrophobic. Best wishes for getting the balance right according to your circumstances.
I am finding that my level of anxiety about the virus correlates quite markedly with how much time I spend on here. That has been good - it informed me, put me ahead of the curve, led to some great shorting bets on stock markets - but now I sense it might be going the other way.
Are we getting overwrought? Are people feeding off each other and generating a negative feedback loop?
Dr Tedros added: "You can fight a virus, you can't fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, treat and test every case.
"Every case we find and treat reduces the expansion of the disease. Do not just let this virus burn. Isolate the sick and quarantine their contacts."
It makes the UK decision to pivot from 10,000 tests a day to only hospital admissions even stranger.
Only if you start from the incorrect assumption that the objective is to minimise the spread of the disease. It explicitly isnt. It is to manage the spread of the virus at a level that doesnt overwhelm the country and NHS this spring/summer but also builds up herd immunity by the winter. ...
To do that would require something like 3 million infected per month. That's anywhere up to 300,000 requiring hospitalisation.
Is that realistic ?
The assumption they are working from, as stated yesterday, is that there are ten times as many mild/undetected cases - so containment is that much harder, and building herd immunity is that much less dangerous.
How do they come up with that assumption ? Did they explain ? (I was doing other stuff, and simply didn't see the press conference.)
They didn't explain.
Logically, if your contact tracing and testing is good enough then any cases you find that aren't connected to travel, or a previously identified case, will be due to undetected asymptomatic cases passing the infection on. Consequently you can use the numbers of one to estimate the numbers of the other.
That's basically what the Ohio State Health Director said, that multiple unconnected community transmissions means ~1.0% of the public are infected.
These are assumptions, though.
And the number of hospitalisations, and deaths, is going to be extremely sensitive to variation in the number of asymptomatic infected. If it's significantly lower than the 9x assumed, ICUs are going to be overwhelmed.
I think he makes a fair point. I suppose it depends on whether they are abandoning all testing outside of hospitals or simply downplaying it and targeting it to get the information they need.
The tests themselves - or at least the announcement of them - has become something of a spectator sport so I can understand why they might want to be able to make changes to them without being constantly questioned over their meaning.
I think its a simple matter of manpower and priorities. As the NHS becomes stretched sending people out to do tests on people who are self-isolated and healthy is a relatively wasted resource.
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
That is surprisingly welcome. Well done the UK public.
There have been only 11 deaths so far. Wait until it gets into the hundreds.
30000 died from flu in the UK in 1989. It does not make onto a detailed list of news in the Uk in 1989 on wiki:
You must be one of the last people left in that particular room.
Been away for a few hours. Have I missed anything?
Not much. Jolyon Maugham is going to the High Court to get an injunction to prevent the government digging plague pits in Hyde Park, on the grounds that the policy discriminates against older women. Nicola Sturgeon as expected is building a wall along the border with England. Nigel Farage is organising a petition to get the Chief Medical Officer hung, drawn and quartered. Otherwise quiet.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Yep it's shit.
We are absurdly, painfully, pathetically, arrogant.
And those who say we should trust our so-called scientists (neatly ignoring the rest of the world) just look at Foot & Mouth, BSE and the endless trope that the latter couldn't cause human CJD, er, until they found that they were completely wrong. If you want a stark reminder of why NOT to trust scientists and politicians on public health, read this:
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
This is worrying and the challenge is to worry enough but not too much. To stay informed without obsessing. To avoid risk but not feel frightened the whole time and trapped and claustrophobic. Best wishes for getting the balance right according to your circumstances.
I am finding that my level of worry about the virus correlates quite markedly with how much time I spend on here. That has been good - it informed me, put me ahead of the curve, led to some great shorting bets on stock markets - but now I sense it might be going the other way. Are we getting overwrought? Are people feeding off each other and generating a negative feedback loop?
We're chewing over a major decision just made by government on how to deal with the pandemic. Working out the implications of that is a necessary process.
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.
That is why the Korean drive-through tests were a good idea. We started to trial them here, but clearly they have now been ditched.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Are we sure some sub-optimal chat bot AI doesn't auto create his tweets for him?
There was that Microsoft bot that was "hacked" to spout racist nonsense, amazingly this one is worse.
Here is a funny story....A month or so ago, one of the big podcasts on YouTube, in ones of its videos YouTube's AI auto-transcription decided they said the n-word (which they didn't) and inserted into into the subtitles....this then caused YouTube's AI censor bot to strike it as a racist video.
The racist bot causing Sheriff bot to decide the humans are racist.
Confirmation of what we already know and what other European countries don't agree with:
"Millions of Britons will need to contract coronavirus in order to control the impact of the disease which is likely to return "year on year", the government's chief scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Around 60% of the UK population will need to become infected with coronavirus in order for society to have "herd immunity" from future outbreaks, Sir Patrick Vallance said."
So they are lining 1% - 3% of us (650,000 - 1.9m) up against the wall for execution? And this is supposed to be a viable strategy that the public will back?
What are they on? Crack-cocaine?
Remind us of your proposed strategy and qualifications for having one?
My strategy for staying alive? Simple enough - do not volunteer to be a Guinea Pig.
Feel free to step up and take one for Team GB Felix....
You truly are one of the stupidest posters I've encountered on any internet site anywhere. Oh and the latest polling just out shows quite broad support for the government strategy and shows just 34% think schools should close:
NEW: YouGov poll for Sky News
* Public broadly backing Boris Johnson's handling
How well is the UK government doing over Coronavirus? Well 55% Badly 30% Don't know 14%
Like that's going to last!
There is nowhere near enough protective equipment. It will be like going over the top with a swagger stick and whistle.
Best wishes to you Foxy.
My brother told me the 'package' of protective equipment sent to his GP practice was laughable.
The Doctors.net COVID19 thread is pretty grim reading, that is the situation everywhere.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Been away for a few hours. Have I missed anything?
Not much. Jolyon Maugham is going to the High Court to get an injunction to prevent the government digging plague pits in Hyde Park, on the grounds that the policy discriminates against older women. Nicola Sturgeon as expected is building a wall along the border with England. Nigel Farage is organising a petition to get the Chief Medical Officer hung, drawn and quartered. Otherwise quiet.
Does Joylon Maugham want to do the older women in himself with the baseball bat?
My wife has just approached me in tears...one of her leading journal medics has sent around a round robin email around all the medics in the community (he's being re-deployed now)- and it leaves little to the imagination about what they are facing.....
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
The virus remains viable on paper surfaces up to 10 days. I don't have a citation for that, but it was on the local news last night, coming from a Johns Hopkins expert, so probably reliable.
However, it is susceptible to very simple decontamination methods - either soapy water or alcohol-based wipes will kill it on a surface.
O/T Is there any sport to follow over the weekend whilst I'm working?
National league footie? Anything else?
What would be a great idea is if the broadcasters start broadcasting random football matches from years gone by. How about Arsenal against Newcastle in 1984? It'd be a novelty for a week or so.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
We're chewing over a major decision just made by government on how to deal with the pandemic. Working out the implications of that is a necessary process.
It is truly fascinating.
My focus (apart from the obvious concerns) is to try and call when the markets become a spectacular buy with a good chance of doubling in three years.
The polling which shows broad support for the government should be required study for all the press and media hacks who are desperate to add division and discord at the time when we really need unity above all else. I live in Spain which is in full panic mode tonight just a few days after closing universities and schools has led to thousands of families leaving the worst affected areas to go totheir second homes in the least affected areas.
I think the positive ratings have much to do with the CMO and CSA who are extremely impressive individuals.
It's to the government's credit that they've allowed the scientists to play such a prominent role. It's something that's not been seen in many other countries to the same extent.
From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?
Chlorine in the pool will almost certainly kill it; sauna and steam rooms, the heat should kill any COVID contamination on surfaces.
However, the myth that a sauna will cure you of the virus if you've already caught it is nonsense.
That, and the logistics of getting a test done when people are isolating themselves, in such a way that doesn't end up with considerable numbers of medical professionals also infected.
That is why the Korean drive-through tests were a good idea. We started to trial them here, but clearly they have now been ditched.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
It isn't Johnson's idea, it's the experts.
I doubt very much everyone had the same view- and I would think if the PM was someone who believed in the state a little more- then the outcome would have been different....
Within 2 weeks we'll be in lock down and trying to keep people away from each other as much as possible-
Must say, as an 80+ year old who is a life-long, albeit mild, asthmatic I'm now getting worried. And the worry isn't doing my asthma a lot of good; there's always been a psychological component. So I gave the gym a miss today and had a walk along a nearby seafront. Couple of U3a Group meetings scheduled next week that are causing me furiously to think.
Honestly, I would remove yourself as best you can from society. That is what I have done with my elderly parents.
DO NOT go the gym...anyone going to a gym today needs a psych assessment.....
The gym was empty earlier. Training there was blissful.
Do you know how long the virus lasts for left on a surface?
I go to work daily on trains. I work in central London. I'm in an office that despite best efforts with supplying hand sanitisers is stuffed full of people who have done the same.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
Can the virus be transmitted via a swimming pool, or sauna, or steam room?
Chlorine in the pool will almost certainly kill it; sauna and steam rooms, the heat should do kill any virus contamination on surfaces.
However, the myth that a sauna will cure you of the virus if you've already caught it is nonsense.
Yeah I never thought it was a cure, I was just curious about transmission risks.
I've been thinking about joining a gym recently but put it off for now as I'm not sure about the risks etc - if I was to join it'd be primarily to use cardio equipment and then wanting to use a pool/jacuzzi/sauna/steam room after exercising but I'm not sure if that's safe or not right now.
Comments
Logically, if your contact tracing and testing is good enough then any cases you find that aren't connected to travel, or a previously identified case, will be due to undetected asymptomatic cases passing the infection on. Consequently you can use the numbers of one to estimate the numbers of the other.
And Boris Johnson- what the fuck is he thinking with his herd bollox.....
The primary responsibility of any Govt is to keep the public safe, not play Russian Roulette on some theoretical science theory that suits his Neo-liberal philosophy....
Again SK, did this two strand approach. Quick and less accurate test at the road side, and if you tested positive, then you get funnelled into the proper testing pool.
I am very concerned that all this modelling and data driven approaches and then we appear to be wanting to reduce data collection rather than increase it.
U3a meetings can keep for a few weeks. After all, you want to make it through to the U4a, when Sauron is smashed and the great flourishing occurs.
Shedding is highest for those with mild symptoms early on, and ceases completely after 10 days. That might be the origin of the 7 day figure.
FWIW, one of the reasons COVID is so much more transmissible than SARS is that viral loads in those early days of infection are around 1000-fold those of SARS.
I found that oddly comforting.
I said yesterday that the choice they are making could prove right. But is is a choice which I have serious doubts about (as do people far more qualified than me to express an opinion).
I am truing to understand that choice, and most of the responses I get, not unlike yours, are along the lines of 'we have great epidemiologists'.
And the stakes for those of us in full time employment in our late fifties, with parents in their eighties, are not small ones.
The tests themselves - or at least the announcement of them - has become something of a spectator sport so I can understand why they might want to be able to make changes to them without being constantly questioned over their meaning.
He is doing what we should want him to do - follow the advice of his experts.
You should take a look at what the WHO said this afternoon before you launch off on one.
Most stuff is being put out as open access at the moment but if anyone wants anything behind a paywall just send me a message.
Personally I think that this is the right course they are taking (with some doubts about the testing regime) and am seriously considering whether it would be good to catch this thing as soon as possible (I am reasonably healthy and in my mid 50s so the chances of complications are low). My concern, like yours, is for elderly friends and relations so I am taking extra steps not mandated by the Government to keep them as safe and isolated as possible.
"DOWN Mother"
The strategy won't become apparent if it was the optimal one for many years. I can't imagine the pressure to go with it rather than follow the herd.
There is nowhere near enough protective equipment. It will be like going over the top with a swagger stick and whistle.
We are absurdly, painfully, pathetically, arrogant.
And those who say we should trust our so-called scientists (neatly ignoring the rest of the world) just look at Foot & Mouth, BSE and the endless trope that the latter couldn't cause human CJD, er, until they found that they were completely wrong. If you want a stark reminder of why NOT to trust scientists and politicians on public health, read this:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/oct/29/bse.focus1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_in_the_United_Kingdom
There was probably some public health stuff announced at the time but I cannot remember it being discussed.
If we keep the numbers to those levels the country can cope. Regardless of how we do I will be thanking the scientists, doctors, nurses and health providers for their sincere efforts, not second guessing them with Faragist common sense.
As you know, I have very little time for Johnson. On this I am endeavouring to give him the benefit of the doubt, but that doesn't mean taking anything he says for granted.
My brother told me the 'package' of protective equipment sent to his GP practice was laughable.
I think that gives us a big hint of the timescale Boris's experts are modelling on etc.
I am finding that my level of anxiety about the virus correlates quite markedly with how much time I spend on here. That has been good - it informed me, put me ahead of the curve, led to some great shorting bets on stock markets - but now I sense it might be going the other way.
Are we getting overwrought? Are people feeding off each other and generating a negative feedback loop?
And the number of hospitalisations, and deaths, is going to be extremely sensitive to variation in the number of asymptomatic infected.
If it's significantly lower than the 9x assumed, ICUs are going to be overwhelmed.
All pubs, clubs and bars in Berlin to be closed from the middle of next week.
The racist bot causing Sheriff bot to decide the humans are racist.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
Armchair troll.
The gym, ironically, is now more or less empty and the few people there are those who are keenest about being fit. I might pick up the virus there but it's not as though I'm short of other places I might pick it up. And I need to keep fit.
However, it is susceptible to very simple decontamination methods - either soapy water or alcohol-based wipes will kill it on a surface.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-and-social-distancing-is-it-risky-to-go-to-the-pub-or-gym
My focus (apart from the obvious concerns) is to try and call when the markets become a spectacular buy with a good chance of doubling in three years.
So I will keep reading your posts.
From a sociology perspective these two men are authority figures, their involvement now will make it much easier to enforce stronger behavioural changes later, in a way that wouldn't be the case if it were the PM making the case. In a time of political division, the deployment of the scientists is a genius idea.
However, the myth that a sauna will cure you of the virus if you've already caught it is nonsense.
Within 2 weeks we'll be in lock down and trying to keep people away from each other as much as possible-
Do they still do a tit count?
I've been thinking about joining a gym recently but put it off for now as I'm not sure about the risks etc - if I was to join it'd be primarily to use cardio equipment and then wanting to use a pool/jacuzzi/sauna/steam room after exercising but I'm not sure if that's safe or not right now.